The All Star break is always a good time to start reviewing and analyzing the current season, as we are starting to acquire large enough of a sample size to begin to make decent judgments. With the season over 60 percent complete, the Coach of the Year (COTY) race is starting to take shape, with two coaches in particular rising above the rest of the pack: Atlanta’s Mike Woodson and Oklahoma City’s Scott Brooks.However, this season there are a decent number of qualified coaches so we’ll break down the other hopefuls and also examine the COTY’s recent (and in some ways dubious) history to get a full picture of this season’s race.
As we arrive at the mid-point of the season, it becomes apparent that the early season success of a few players is more than just a fluke hot start. These players may have been decent contributors in the past but never gained mainstream attention outside of their own team’s fan base. These are the players that should be considered for the Most Improved Player Award.
Unfortunately the best all-star game in sports is suffering from a growing case of stupidity. This year, Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson are still on pace to start at guard in the upcoming mid-season classic in Dallas. Thankfully, the fans only get to choose just 10 players, but it’s become apparent that this might even be too much responsibility unless the selection process is changed. If you’re an avid fan, this just has to get your blood boiling a bit. Question is, what should be done?
We’ve all heard the argument that the All-Star game is for the fans so whomever they choose to start should be allowed. In the past, this has always been acceptable as the results haven’t been too skewed. However, with each passing year, it has become obvious this has become more of a popularity contest. Last season the unthinkable almost happened. Yi Jianlian finished 3rd among Eastern Conference forwards despite putting up 10.5 points (on 40.3 FG%), 1.0 3ptm, 6.2 rebounds and .5 steals/.6 blocks. Say what?
Naturally there are many who think the game is just for fun so it doesn’t matter who gets in.
Don Nelson, who coached the West All-Star team in 1992, takes a different view of McGrady’s situation. The Golden State coach said the league should respect the fans’ right to vote by not questioning the final results.
“If you’re going to have fan voting, then you gotta accept that they might vote in a guy that hasn’t played,” Nelson said. “They may vote for a guy just because he has a big name. It’s just kind of the way it is, and you gotta live with it.”
I guess it boils down to how you view the All-Star game. Historically, being selected was considered a proud achievement as players were honored for being the most developed and well-regarded in the league. Just take a glance at the rosters of prior games. I can’t seem to find any duds.
Being an avid supporter of tradition, I don’t see any reason why this definition of an All-Star should be changed now. It’s NOT a My Fave Five game. Consequently what steps can be done to prevent an embarrassment from happening? Here is the short list I’ve come up with:
1) Eliminate fan voting
It doesn’t appear too difficult to discount this one. Next to All-Stars always being worthy players, it can be argued the other mainstay is fan voting. Since 1951, fans have always been allowed to vote for players. There is simply no way the NBA would take a step that would be akin to cutting off their own feet. Fan involvement undoubtedly helps promote the game ensuring it’s survival even in difficult economic conditions.
2) Eliminate Internet voting
It would appear that a number of irregularities have cropped up since allowing the rest of the world to have a say. It shouldn’t come as a surprise then that entire cultures have decided to vote for their own. Without a doubt the most polarizing figure in the game is Yao Ming. Thanks to him, the Rockets team and individual players get an inordinate amount of attention. Just look the latest Western Conference ballot results: Aaron Brooks (5th among guards), Trevor Ariza (6th among forwards) andLuis Scola (7th among forwards). In addition, I have no doubt in my mind that Yi will push (probably make) next year’s All-Star game.
However, I don’t think the best move is to suddenly alienate any regions outside of the United States. If we truly want to globalize basketball, discrimination isn’t the way to go (I’m sure David Stern would agree as it would likely hinder the amount of revenue generated by the NBA).
Eventually, you have to believe the more familiar other cultures become with the NBA, the more likely people will vote based on performance. It appears even a significant portion of Chinese questioned Yi almost making it last year:
China’s 350 million basketball fans have become an important group for the NBA, so it is not surprising that Yi, a Chinese national, rank thirds in the voting. They believe the votes cast by Chinese fans should carry equal weight with those cast by American or German fans, and they have called on others to be self-confident in participating in the vote.
But others argue that Yi’s skills are not good enough for him to become a starter in the All-Star game. They say some fans have voted for him repeatedly or even resorted to manipulating computer software in an attempt to give him enough votes to be included on the All-Star game’s roster.
Those that believe Yi’s skills as a basketball player are below par say the level of All-Star game is lowered by such tactics, which constitute cheating. They also note that forcing the NBA’s global fans to accept the voting results of Chinese fans is not good for the future development of Yi, whom they believe is not qualified to take part in the All-Star game at present.
Another possible method to attempt to regulate All-Star selection would be placing certain restrictions. There are countless ones that come to mind. Perhaps the NBA places fewer names on the ballot and does away with write-ins. How about having fan votes be worth less and be combined with expert/player/coach voting (something similar to the NFL’s Pro Bowl)? Or maybe set up some simple criteria that have been advocated by players like Brandon Roy?
“Maybe they should do it where you have to play a certain amount of games to start,” said Roy, who was ninth in the voting for guards. “If you play in a certain amount of games, then you get to start or play before they announce the team.”
This could conceivably work but it would still be subject to scrutiny, not to mention the added requirement of increased resources. Fans could still upset the notion of fairness under any one of those purported changes. In addition, in many cases additional criteria would result in more work by the NBA especially since paper ballots are still used. What would happen when the first ballots are released and then a player misses a number of games?
4) Players & Coaches Decide Rosters Then Fans Decide Starters
In my opinion, the coaches and players in the Association should select the entire rosters up to a month before the actual game is to be held. There is no doubt that they would come up with a very deserving roster as peers normally judge quite objectively. Then allow the fans to vote electronically (whether through the internet or booths at arenas) starting a month before the actual game. If deemed necessary, allow the fans to also have 1 additional write-in vote for an extra bench slot. This would satisfy their need to select that one player they want to see participate, whether for cultural or nostalgic reasons.
There are a multitude of benefits by adopting such a selection process. First, it allows the NBA to set up the fairest system in maintaining a tradition of great NBA players in the All Star game where fans still play an important role. Second, it would move the NBA towards the 21st century whereby eliminating the use of paper ballots. Lastly, it would lead a better promotion of the game by giving the most deserving players the credit. For instance, small market teams would benefit by reducing the emphasis on obscurity. Also, the NBA would be less likely to suffer the retirements of certain generations. In most people’s minds, the NBA has dipped when greats like Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan retired without having someone immediately step into their big shoes. By adopting this proposed system, NBA transitions would probably go much more smoothly.
While I’m not that incensed about either Tmac or AI (as compared to a near Yi debacle), there is a window open where one day a completely undeserving player who was never great at any time may be announced among the league’s best. Please, if you have a minute to spare, go over to NBA.com and make the right choice. Paper balloting will continue through Jan. 10, while wireless balloting and voting on NBA.com will conclude Jan. 18.
Houston, do we have a problem? Perhaps. This season, the Rockets will be starting the year without any star players on the court. Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are, what else, taking another injury vacation. Ron Artest left town for the greener pastures of Los Angeles. So what can the beloved Rocket faithful expect from a team full of solid complimentary players and a bunch of unprovens?
John Hollinger predicts they’ll finish 9th in the Western Conference while ESPN analysts as a whole have them finishing around 10th. Dave Berri of Wages of Win Journal thinks they have a good chance of finishing with over 40 wins and gives them a chance to make the playoffs.
Why are these NBA analysts so high on a team that seems to be lacking so much firepower? Well, they’re believers in the rest of the roster. The Rockets have a lot of excellent complimentary players in Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry and Luis Scola. Specifically, these guys, coined ‘low usage high efficiency players’, all post above average Wins Produced by doing a lot of stuff outside of putting up huge scoring numbers.
Many of these analysts think they’ll be able to keep up similar production with a simple increase in minutes. Herein lies the problem in my opinion. Asking a few solid players to step up is probably sound. Asking most of these low usage guys to become high usage guys? I have a hard time believing it’s as simple as a linear equation. They are going to have to spend more time on the court but produce AT LEAST at the same rate as prior years. Don’t forget more than a few of them are also going to have to develop a high volume FG mentality.
When you remove both a McGrady and Ming, what happens?
Opposing defenses now don’t have to concentrate on the highly skilled offensive player(s). All of a sudden, the complimentary guys become the focal point as they can’t pass off the ball anymore to the star to make something happen. The onus is in Ariza’s, Scola’s or whomever’s hands to beat that shot clock. Now, these players who are not adept at handling solid defensive pressure will be called on to make plays possession after possession.
To help illustrate this fact, I took a look at 2006-07 Rockets team? Why? They had a multitude of solid win producers like the current Rocket’s team, but more importantly, had 5 games in which both McGrady and Yao Ming missed. Dikembe Mutombo, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Luther Head, Rafer Alston, Kirk Snyder and Juwan Howard were the 7 primary guys besides the two stars. Based on their Wins Produced, they should have been close to an average team coming in with 37 wins.
Do you know what they did in those 5 games? They shot a putrid 38.3% (150-392) from the field and posted an abysmal assists to turnover ratio (71 assists compared to 65 turnovers). Since they were solid players, they were able to stay close in most of the games (avg loss of 7.2 points) and were only out-rebounded by 4.4 boards. However, not to win a single game against squads like the 40-win Clippers, 32-win Portland or, my favorite, a 24-win Boston Celtic team? Yikes!
This years Rocket’s main 7 (Ariza, Battier, Hayes, Landry, Scola, Lowry and Aaron Brooks) have a combined 36.2 wins based on last year’s statistics. Sounds a lot like the 2006-07 group as they both have solid complimentary players but appear to lack at least a couple of proven scoring mentalities.
If preseason is any indicator, Rockets may indeed be in trouble as they put up a mediocre 4-4 record. The team combined to shoot a respectable 44% (283-641) from the field but their assists (151) and turnovers (140) were pretty bad. In addition, new team member, Trevor Ariza, saw his efficiency and rebounding go down from last season.
So far, through two games this season, the Rockets have managed one very fortunate win against the Warriors last night. They needed every bit of the 12 of 26 shots from 3 point range to eek out a 1 point win. Despite that peformance, they still have a dismal 41.9% overall field goal percentage on the young season.
Also, it can’t be oversimplified what consistent hardship and failure must do to one’s overall game after enjoying success the last several years. Consistently putting up more shots than one’s accustomed to while becoming much less adept. Less cheering/excitement for home games. Local media outlets start talking about the lottery. The overall lack of positive feelings have a good chance to eventually weigh on the psyche’s on most of the players during the course of 82 games.
I like Ball Don’t Lie’s prediction of a record of 37-45 which precludes Tracy making it back at some point. This team will not have a chance on sniffing the playoffs unless Tracy McGrady shows a return to All-Star form in the majority of this season’s games. Or I guess a young player like Aaron Brooks could try and don some wings and a halo too.
With Yao Ming officially down and out for the 2009-10 NBA season, fantasy managers in keeper and dynasty formats all have an interesting dilemma. Similar dilemmas play out each season, with recent examples being Elton Brandin 2007-08 and Gilbert Arenas in 2008-09. Dealing with injuries is one of the keys to fantasy success and is more complicated in dynasty and keeper formats.
In laying out the basics of keeper and dynasty strategy, the main thing to remember is that the fundamental goal every season is to win a championship. Anything less than a gold trophy can be considered a failure; there is no prize for rebuilding. However, winning the ultimate prize is easier said than done, especially when you lose one of your top players, such as Yao, for the entire season.
As always, league settings play a large role in how to handle the Ming Dilemma. Each individual situation is different and there is no one-size-fits-all approach to handling Yao Ming this season. The reason Yao Ming is such an interesting case study is because he is a bona fide first round talent in virtually every format when healthy. This makes the decision of whether to cut your losses and move on much more difficult.
Let’s take at some of the possible scenarios and examine the different methods of dealing with the Ming Dilemma.
Already Own Yao Ming
The greatest dilemma falls on the owners who already have Yao on their rosters as a keeper. In dynasty league formats, you have no choice but to hang on to Yao Ming and waste a roster spot carrying him all season. In dynasty formats, most managers have dead weight at the end of their rosters. Dynasty formats allow managers to carry project players for long periods of times as the players develop and improve.
In keeper leagues, the dilemma is more pronounced and is greatly affected by individual league settings and team makeup. In general, the more keepers a league allows, the more it makes sense to hang on to Yao. Extremely deep keeper leagues (10+ teams) are more akin to dynasty leagues than to shallow keeper leagues, which are strategically closer to redraft leagues.
Stacked teams are less likely to be forced into keeping Yao Ming or another injured superstar. These teams can sacrifice some long-term value for a worse player who will provide an immediate positive impact. At risk of sounding like a broken record, the point in any league is to win this season. Thus, if you have other viable keeper options, do not hesitate to get rid of Ming or another injured superstar.
One important caveat to note. For any league with an injured-reserve spot (or multiple IR spots), it almost universally makes sense to hang on to Yao Ming or another injured superstar. In these formats, Yao’s dead weight can be carried for most of the season without affecting your ability to compete for a title.
Yao is on the Waiver Wire
In some keeper leagues, Yao has already ended up on the waiver wire. Maybe he wasn’t drafted at all, or maybe he was jettisoned in favor of a guy who has played at a high level during the preseason. However he ended up there, inevitably managers start to wonder whether it makes sense to pick him up because it is a keeper league.
In most cases, it does not make sense to pickup Yao Ming if he is currently on the waiver wire. At this juncture in the season, your number one all-consuming goal should be winning the another trophy for your trophy case. Ming’s dead weight is a serious drag and greatly hinders this goal. In order to win, you need every advantage you can get.
I would recommend picking up Yao off the waiver wires in only two scenarios this season. The first is extremely positive medical news featuring a much quicker recovery timeline than expected. To take advantage of this, keep a close eye on any medical reports out of Houston and be prepared to act on a moment’s notice.
The second scenario occurs when your team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Once this occurs, it makes complete sense to drop no-upside players, such as Antonio McDyess, in order to make room for Yao. In keeper and dynasty leagues, the season is not over when you are eliminated from the playoffs. Instead, managers are greatly rewarded for picking up possible breakout candidates for next season and rostering them for the offseason. Then, you can monitor offseason developments and have more flexibility to make deals at the keeper deadline. A good example of this is owners who picked up Anthony Randolph at the end of last season for his scorching finish. Those managers were rewarded with a keeper quality player in leagues of five or more keepers.
Trade for Yao?
Similar to the situation in which Yao Ming is on the waiver wire, it can make sense to trade for Yao Ming. When mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, it is open season on lowball offers for injured studs. If the managers that owns an injured studs is competing for a trophy, they will most likely trade an injured stud for a much worse player in order to get production that can help them win now. In this case, a trade is mutually beneficial for both teams as one team improves in the short term and one team improves in the long term.
Conclusion
From much injury experience, I can attest that it is very, very difficult to carry dead weight for an entire season and still win a championship. Thus, the Ming Dilemma is a serious one that will have serious ramifications on your team’s success in the short and long term. Keep Yao only when it makes sense to do so. These strategies don’t only apply to Yao Ming — they also work with any injured superstar.
With Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, and to some extentTrevor Ariza getting all the headlines in Houston, there is one player nobody is talking about: Carl Landry. And people probably should be talking about him as he is poised for a breakout season in 2009.
Landry has had some brief moments in the spotlight during his two years playing for the Rockets. He’s had 22 point games and he’s even pulled down eleven boards in a game. Hell, he’s even taken a bullet for the team.
But now, with Yao Ming down and out for the entire 2009-10 season, there is suddenly a 33 minute hole in the Rockets’ rotation at center. Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes should both see a boost of minutes, as they were the other two Rockets to log significant minutes at the five last season.
With Scola and Hayes playing primarily at the five, Landry should see a significant spike in minutes holding down the power forward position for the Rockets next season . For reference, he averaged 21.3 minutes per game last season. Next season, Landry looks poised to earn about 30 minutes a game, with David Andersen and Joey Dorseypicking up the remainder of the minutes at the four and five.
per-36 minute statistics from last season were nice with Landry averaging 15.7 points on .574/.813 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 8.4 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.7 turnovers. If you factor in some slight gains due to improvement entering his third season in the NBA, and Landry’s promise becomes quite clear.
For certain fantasy teams, Landry is a perfect fit. For teams looking to beef up their field goal percentage without having to sacrifice free throw percentage should look no further than Landry. In fact, Landry was one of ten players last season to average .500+ field goal percentage and .800+ free throw percentage (restricted to players who logged more than 1000 minutes). He also provides rebounds, points and a little bit of defensive category production as well.
On top of everything, Landry can be had very late, including the last round of all standard size leagues. Landry’s Buser Sport’s average draft position is 160 and his Yahoo! O-Rank is nearly identical at 161st overall. He is almost a sure bet to outproduce his average draft position in the 13th round of most drafts.
In Landry, we have the especially rare convergence of a few factors to create a development sleeper and an injury sleeper.
The development sleepers are sleepers in their purest form. Development sleepers are guys who improve based upon their own skills, athleticism and acclimation to professional basketball. Generally, development sleepers make the leap from below-average to above-average in their first three seasons in the league, although there are outliers who make the leap much later (Hedo Turkoglu for example).
Possible development sleepers are around every season and this season is no exception. Guys like Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert are all possible development sleepers for next season. These guys are all being drafted higher than their production from the 2008-09 season would warrant. This is largely based on expectations that these players have will take steps forward in their fantasy production next season.
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Injury sleepers are when an injury occurs to a starter ahead of the potential injury sleeper (bench player) on the depth chart. Thus, the player moves ahead and experiences a sudden and protracted boost in minutes, often resulting in a surge for that player’s fantasy value as well. As we all know, the allocation of minutes is a strong factor in determining fantasy value. Last season, Paul Millsap was a perfect example of an injury sleeper, as he gained fantasy value when Carlos Boozer went down with a knee injury. The other thing to note is that, unlike development sleepers, an injury sleeper is often a temporary sleeper. When the injured player returns to the court, the injury sleeper usually returns to his bench role with reduced minutes and reduced fantasy production.
Offseason injuries that sideline a starter are rare indeed. When an offseason injury occurs that sidelines a guy for the entire season, that is even more rare. When said injury opens up minutes for a potential development sleeper, that is even rarer.
Even more shockingly, all but the most saavy of fantasy managers have not seemed to notice the immense opportunity. Landry truly is a sleeper in the most traditional sense; he is a player that is flying well under the radar while maintaining great potential to out produce his draft position.
Injury sleepers are when an injury occurs to a starter ahead of the potential injury sleeper (bench player) on the depth chart. Thus, the player moves ahead and experiences a sudden and protracted boost in minutes, often resulting in a surge for that player’s fantasy value as well. As we all know, the allocation of minutes is a strong factor in determining fantasy value. Last season, Paul Millsap was a perfect example of an injury sleeper, as he gained fantasy value when Carlos Boozer went down with a knee injury. The other thing to note is that, unlike development sleepers, an injury sleeper is often a temporary sleeper. When the injured player returns to the court, the injury sleeper usually returns to his bench role with reduced minutes and reduced fantasy production.
It was just two short months ago that the basketball world stood still, as one of the most shocking and unexpected stories broke –- Trevor Ariza was going to be a Houston Rocket.
OK, so it isn’t Yao Ming and his career threatening foot injury, or LeBron Jamesblatantly talking about hinting that he might be looking somewhere other than Cleveland to set up court in 2010 (pardon the pun). But listening to all the hype, you would have thought that Trevor Ariza going to the Rockets was breaking news.
Hot off the presses type stuff. Ariza was the new media darling. And with that title came all the scrutiny and analysis of his decision to leave the World Champions.
Was it the right thing to do? Was he really feeling under appreciated in the locker room?
Or was he a victim of his own hype, all the while listening to his agent, the “other” David Lee, dangle both virtue and dollar signs in front of him at the same time – “it was never about the money;” Lee said when interviewed, “it was about respect.”
Respect.
Fast-forward two months. LeBron James has “officially” put Dunk-gate to rest. Yao’s foot is miraculously healing well enough that he may even be able to come back as early as April of this season. And the Rockets, even though they are in rebuilding mode, are looking forward to a fast-paced, up-tempo, exciting brand of ball, while being led by the likes of Luis Scola and Shane Battier. One Houston beat writer even commented that Aaron Brooks might even be the Man.
Wait a minute! What ever happened to Trevor Ariza?
With positive medical news for both Tracy McGrady and Yao, the Trevor Ariza drama has simply vanished. Talk about respect. No more glitz and glamor, no more spotlight.
So what does this mean for Ariza, and more importantly for his impact in Houston?
There’s no denying the potential is there. As a bench guy, Ariza’s impact in L.A. was minimal. But towards the end of last season, when he became a starter, he excelled in a way that he had not done since, well… ever. Looking at splits, Ariza started 20 games for the Lakers averaging 10.1 points on .479/.806 percent shooting, 4.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.1 turnovers per start.
His free throw percentage was actually fantastic considering the fact that he’s a career .661 percent free throw shooter. His 1.9 steals per game made him a defensive lock. And he did this all with only 28 minutes per game. Just thinking about what he could do with the consistent 30 plus minutes a night he should see in Houston makes fantasy owners drool with anticipation.
But that’s fantasy –- reality is a bit less cut-and-dry here.
First off, Ariza’s coming to a Rockets team that is missing its two All-Atar mainstays. Yao will be out indefinitely, that much we know – what we don’t know is what he’ll be like when he comes back. Common sense dictates that Yao should be fine, and he should come back strong for next season. Of course, common sense also dictated that Ariza stay in L.A., and that sure didn’t happen!
Then there’s the McGrady factor. Knee-Mac T-Mac is coming off a knee injury that kept coming back, eventually causing him to shut it down in the middle of February last season. He’s been working out with Chicago trainer Tim Grover (so hot right now), and all indications are that he’s ahead of schedule. Listening to the Rocket’s General Manager Daryl Morey you might even think he may be ready for the season opener.
Rockets general manager Daryl Morey was in Chicago recently, checking on the progress of Tracy McGrady. Morey told the Houston Chronicle that McGrady looked very good, and is “way, way ahead of schedule.”
“He’s already playing,” Morey said. “I don’t think anyone could have predicted he would be playing now. He still has a long way to go. There is a lot of rust to shake off.”
So what do these two situations have to do with Trevor Ariza?
Well, nothing really – and then a lot.
Fantasy-wise, Ariza takes a hit offensively with a healthy Yao and T-Mac on the floor at the same time. But even though he loses offensive touches, it won’t cut into his playing time, so his defensive production should be as good or better than it was in L.A.
But given the circumstances of the upcoming season, Ariza should see a huge bump in value. It’s very possible that all of his stats could go up, with the exception of maybe field goal percentage. This loss in field goal efficiency could be due to the fact that he’s likely to take more shots than he usually would (thus taking worse shots) while also facing more defensive pressure than he’s ever faced in his five year career.
If he can keep his free throw shooting percentage up in the high seventies or low eighties, he becomes a very attractive pick-up who could give a fantasy team points, threes, as well as those ever-elusive steals.
But if Trevor Ariza takes it upon himself to try and be the Man in Houston, those solid numbers that many are all expecting could go by the wayside. They may not even happen at all. And listening to some in the media, that may not be too far fetched of an idea. Two months ago, it was fresh on everyone’s mind:
Ariza’s only NBA mistake occurred this week, when he followed the lead of his misguided agent, David Lee. By joining the Rockets as a miscast free-agent star, the kid now faces the possibility of a career filled with disillusionment and mediocrity, not to mention anonymity.
Ariza will not, and probably should not, be the main focus in Houston. That’s simply not his game. Once McGrady and eventually Yao return, Ariza should settle into a role of defensive stopper while providing outside shooting and slashing. It should be very similar to the role he had in L.A. with one exception – he’ll be seeing starter’s minutes. Quality starter’s minutes, not just the 28 minutes per game he got in Los Angeles. That is how Ariza flourishes on the basketball court.
Regardless of all the hype, regardless of all the mixed messages being sent by the Rockets, Ariza and the media, the bottom line is that fantasy owners need to enjoy it while it lasts, because Trevor Ariza may never have a better situation. Rocket fans, however, will need to understand that this team is going to struggle with everything –- winning, losing, identity — the whole nine yards.
But after this season, when the dust has settled and we’re all talking about the 2010 free agent class, Houston will have gained a valuable young role player and a proven Champion. It will be remarkably similar to Ariza’s role in L.A., except he’ll be starting and playing more than 28 minutes per night. And that will definitely be a great thing for him, for Rockets fans and for fantasy managers alike.
It’s all going to come down to how he responds. How he plays this season.
His actions and attitude will dictate whether people, both fantasy players and fans, take note of Trevor Ariza. Whether they file him away for future reference or put him on the top of their cheat sheets.
Whether or not by this time next year, they’ll be asking that same question.
In competitive fantasy leagues, it’s never too early to start to identify potential sleepers for next season. Even though almost anything can change over the next two months, some players are already emerging as potential studs or breakout candidates for 2009-10.
The recipe for a potential sleeper is never the same. Sometimes it is true progression as a player, other times a trade or injury opens up minutes for a player. It can even be a truly unexplainable phenomenon. Whatever the reason, breakout players are essential to securing the ever-elusive hardware when playing against other knowledgeable managers.
Let’s break the potential sleepers into three groups: the guards, the forwards and the centers. With the guards and the forwards down, only the centers remain.
Brook Lopez — Next to Anthony Randolph, Lopez is this summer’s other worst kept secret. Knowledgeable fantasy managers across the country are excited. And for good reason, too. Lopez and Devin Harris are the Nets’ de facto franchise players, as both have already proven to be extremely talented.
Lopez’s rookie season was outstanding and mirrors another franchise center’s rookie averages to a remarkable degree. Check out rookie season comparisons for Brook Lopez and Yao Ming. In particular, compare the two players’ per-36 minute stats. It’s interesting that Brook actually had a higher field goal percentage than Yao did as a rook.
In real life, Yao was better than Brook. For evidence of that in his statline, compare Yao’s and Brook’s defensive rating, which is a measure of points allowed per 100 possessions (D-Rating). Check out Yao’s D-Rating of 100 compared to Lopez’s D-Rating of 110. Clearly, Yao as a rookie was a much better defender than Brook was last season.
However in fantasy, who is better in real life doesn’t matter and who is the better defender doesn’t matter either. Stats matter and the numbers say that in terms of fantasy production, the Yao-Lopez comparison is within reason. So what did Yao’s statline look like in his second season? His points per game jumped from 13.5 to 17.5 and his efficiency from the floor jumped as well from solid .498 to very respectable .522 from the center position.
If Lopez’s fantasy numbers follow a similar path as Yao’s, he is bound to be a fantasy sleeper that is sure to fulfill his promise and potential. Just be ready to reach for Brook, as his average draft position in competitive leagues (according to Matt Buser’s August 31, 2009 ADP Report) is 28th overall. And in a keeper leagues, Lopez’s value is exponentially higher.
Emeka Okafor — As it’s been chronicled at BFFA in the past, Okafor should consider himself one of the luckiest men alive. He is going to be playing alongside the league’s most talented and exciting point guard, Chris Paul. As far as the current group of active point guards is concerned, the debate is about who is second, not first. CP3 is just that good.
It is widely speculated that Okafor’s numbers will improve playing alongside Paul but what kind of fantasy production can we realistically expect from Okafor next season?
Take a look at Okafor’s career statistics, with the idea of using these numbers as a sort of pre-Paul benchmark. In five season in the NBA, Okafor has averaged 14.0 points on .505/.596 percent shooting, 10.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. For what it’s worth, his career assist-to-turnover ratio is 0.499. Ouch.
His career numbers mask a trend with his field goal percentage, which is a trend towards a higher field goal percentage as his time in the league has progressed. Last season, Okafor’s field goal percentage was .561. Also, it should be noted that Okafor played in all 82 games in both of the last two seasons after avergaging 55 games per season in his first three years in the League.
So playing next to Paul, you’d expect Okafor to get better looks around the rim. No disrespect to Raymond Felton, but Paul is in another universe when it comes to getting his teammates higher percentage attempts. With that in mind, Okafor should progress close to the 60 percent mark for field goal percentage while boosting his scoring averages to career highs.
Being taken in the early sixth round so far this season based upon speculation of a fantasy production boost, Okafor could end up providing valuable dividends on the right teams. On any head-to-head teams that is punting free throw percentage, Emeka should provide very nice production and could easily outproduce his draft position. Or, for teams that can take on a poor free throw shooter, Okafor could be an excellent second center to anchor field goal percentage, rebounds and blocks.
Spencer Hawes — Flashy is probably not a word that will ever be used to describe Hawes’ fantasy or real-life game. Not gonna happen. Steady, maybe one day. Functional, hey why not?
His per-36 minutes from last season were 14.0 points on .466/.662 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 8.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.5 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Again, nothing flashy but very solid and respectable from a second or third center. What is really nice is to see that Hawes is increasing his three pointers per game.
With that in mind, check out this comparison of second year averages. A Mehmet Okur comparison should be a good thing for any young, big man in the Association. Okur was a much better shooter from the charity stripe, but their overall lines are relatively similar. Not a bad possible career trajectory for Mr. Hawes.
Another thing to consider in this situation is the team makeup and outlook for next season. There isn’t any point in sugar-coating it; the Kings were dreadful last season and will almost certainly be dreadful next season as well. But the good news is that Hawes has little competition for minutes at the center position and should put up steady contributions across the board.
Joakim Noah — Last season’s playoffs can be thought of as a watershed for a few players and teams in the League. The Dwight Howard-led Orlando Magic and the Chicago Bulls are some example of teams that made huge steps during the postseason.
How about Joakim Noah? Noah is an interesting case study because his watershed moment can be pinpointed to a specific play.
With that, Noah put everyone, pundits and players alike, on notice.
Noah’s second year averages were decent, but his post-All-Star Game splits showed vast improvement based largely upon bigger minutes. With his outstanding play in the postseason for the Bulls, expect a bigger role next season as a reward.
Next season, Noah could be in store for a similar line to his per-36 minute averages from last season. He averaged 10.0 points on .556/.676 percent shooting, 11.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. A double-double average with two blocks and a steal is very nice from such a young player. For leagues that count offensive rebounds, Noah is even more valuable (averaged a whopping 4.5 offensive boards per-36 minutes last season). Bonus!
Noah is a nice third center option and provides the lunch-pail stats that all fantasy teams rely on. With an average draft position of 105th, Joakim can be obtained late in the draft and is a nice bet to outproduce his draft position.
Roy Hibbert — Looking for a big man to burn a late round flier on? Look no further than Georgetown standout (average draft position of 144th overall), Roy Hibbert. Hibbert plays in one of the league’s most fantasy friendly systems (third in pace) under Coach Jim O’Brien.
Playing for a Pacers team that lost Rasho Nesterovic to Toronto, there is suddenly an opportunity for increased minutes next season. Nesterovic’s departure freed up 17.3 minutes per game at the center position. If you assume that most of those minutes will be funneled to Hibbert (14.4 minutes per game last season), suddenly Roy is looking at nearly 30 minutes per night. With minutes comes fantasy production.
What can we expect from Hibbert in 30 minutes of action per night?
Looking at his per-36 minute stats from his rookie season, the promise is easy to see. He averaged 17.6 points on .471/.667 percent shooting, 8.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.7 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. That’s over 17 points per game, almost nine rebounds and almost three blocks per game. That is big time fantasy potential right there.
If you factor in the possibility of a Troy Murphy injury, and Hibbert starts to look like a very nice sleeper next season. Speaking of a possible Murphy injury, Roy Hibbert and Troy Murphy make a great pair of players to handcuff next season in the right formats.
With some of the early (and obvious) sleepers exposed, next are the deep sleepers for extremely competitive leagues or deeper formats.
With Yao Ming down and out for (most likely) the entire NBA season and with Sun Yue no longer a Laker, Yi Jianlian must carry the hopes of over a billion Chinese. If the recent reports are true, Yi might finally be ready to step-up and become the player many thought he could become.
The burden of being selected in the lottery is often a difficult one to bear (selected 6th overall in 2007 in front of players like Joakim Noah, Spencer Hawes and Wilson Chandler). Some players take the challenge, and others crumble under the pressure of being called the b-word (that’s bust, folks). I’m looking at you, Mr. Brown.
However, Yi’s burden is two-fold. In addition to the typical lottery selection pressure, Yi must also deal with the pressure of being one of the few Chinese players in the Association. And make no mistake, China’s passion and love for basketball and the NBA is extremely high and the additional pressure of billions of Chinese people’s expectations is very real.
Recently, Yi was praised by Coach Lawrence Frank for his play this summer with the Chinese national team. Granted, his play was against much, much weaker competition (Kazakhstan has a basketball team?). But what is encouraging is that Yi has handled the pressure of being in the spotlight, of being the Man, without Yao and has flourished.
The confidence, or swagger is key. It’s always been clear that Yi had the physical and basketball tools to succeed in the NBA. The question has always been about his mental toughness and ability to peresevere against all odds. That’s what separates the purely talented from the successful in the NBA.
When analyzing Yi’s numbers last season, it is important to note two things. One, is that he was traded out of Milwaukee after only one season. This may have affected his confidence as he probably felt like he had to start over again in New Jersey. Two, is that Yi broke his pinkie finger in a game against the team that drafted him in January. After that game, Yi’s production just never got back on track.
Enough about the intangibles, what do the numbers say?
His per-36 minute averages from last season were 13.3 points on .382/.772 percent shooting, 8.3 rebounds, 1.2 threes, 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.9 blocks with 1.8 turnovers. For comparison’s sake, Yi shot .421/.841 percent shooting in his rookie season before digressing in his sophomore season.
If Yi really has gained his confidence and swagger back, his efficieny from field and the line should bounce back to respectable levels. It is doubful that Yi will ever increase his efficiency to elite levels, but he could eventually end up being above average from the field and excellent from the charity stripe. One thing’s for sure, his field goal percentage has nowhere to go but up from last season.
When looking closer at his statline, it’s immediately apparent that Yi has three-steal-block per game potential. In case you were wondering, the only four guys who pulled if off last season were Dwyane Wade, Lebron James, Danny Granger and Francisco Garcia. No, seriously. Now that’s great company.
If Yi really has overcome the mental hurdles that have limited him during the course of two years in the NBA, he is primed to have a breakout season for the Brooklyn New Jersey Nets. And with Vince Carter in Orlando, the opportunity is certainly there for Yi to prove that he belongs in the League (and on fantasy rosters for that matter).
People are naturally more comfortable with the familiar. Whether it be taking the same route to work every morning or watching your favorite movie fifty times, people like things to be predictable. I would have to guess that NBA players have the same comfort levels that we possessors of average athletic ability hold as well. They are not super heroes or somehow above the rest of us (although sometimes the media and the public’s perception points to this).
So why does it seem like there is such a lack of true loyalty among NBA players to one’s franchise, fans and city?
There used to be true loyalty among players in the league years ago. Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul Jabaar, Tim Duncan and Larry Bird all won multiple championships with one team. They stayed around through free agency and rebuilding periods and they got it done for their respective teams time and time again. Today it seems that there isn’t quite the same sense of devotion.
Players are too quick to bolt for a rival team if the pasture is greener on the other side (greener more often than not means more money). Think about all of the time, resources and effort a team has to put into a player that it views as the future of the franchise. The team is completely invested in the player from the scouting period, to the point when they sign their contract. Teams want that player to feel comfortable and at home in their city. They should feel important and desired and that is why NBA teams pull out all the stops when it comes to courting and retaining a franchise player.
Too often today teams and their loyal fans are being spurned by the same athletes they once cheered for. Take Hedo Turkoglu for example. After leading his Orlando Magic all the way to the franchise’s best season and a trip to the Finals, what does Hedo do in the off season? He leaves his championship caliber team and signs a deal (tentative) with the Toronto Raptors.
Why leave a team that obviously wants him and one that is in much better position to contend for a title than Toronto? It has to be money. The almighty dollar, especially in today’s economy, seems to have more pull than ever.
Ben Gordon has spent his entire career with the Chicago Bulls. After reportedly rejecting a 5 year $50 million deal from Chicago last season, he signed with the Pistons for 5 years and $55 million. Why not stay with the team that drafted you and allowed you to showcase your unique skill set instead of acting like a mercenary and leaving for which ever squad can pay you only a few million more? I do realize it is disgusting and totally ridiculous to say “only a few million more,” but for an NBA player and their tax bracket it is only a drop in the bucket.
Trevor Ariza, after winning it all with the Lakers this year, bolts for Houston. Ron Artest took the Rockets farther in the playoffs than they had been in years. After YaoMingwent down, the Rockets were in need of someone to step in and take control of the young cast of talented role players they had assembled. Why not offer to make Artest one of your franchise cornerstones? Well you can’t if he signs with the Lakers, which turned out to be the case.
Dwayne Wade has been in the news recently talking about his future in Miami, or potential lack thereof. Wade basically stated that he would like to hold off on signing a multi-year extension with the Heat until he knows that they are working to put themselves in position to win a championship. Wade wants to make sure he is playing for a team that can contend for a title every year and is not just content to make the playoffs as a fifth seed.
I completely get this. Wade is entering the prime of his career, he can completely dominate a game and he wants to make sure his skills aren’t wasted on an average team. This guy is a winner and I respect his stance, but I am hoping he stays in Miami and wins another ring or two. It would be nice to see that level of commitment to a team that he once led to a championship and now has the opportunity to build a dynasty with. That is assuming the Heat do their part and bring in some talent.
With a number of the league’s brightest stars (Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar’e Stoudemire, for example) potentially going into free agency next season where will their loyalties fall? Will it be with their currnet team or will they follow the dollar to another city and fan base? I can only hope to see some of these players stay with the current teams and build a legacy in the tradition of some of the games biggest stars of years past.
