With yet another NBA trade deadline coming and going, a lot of excitement and hope was generated among the fans and media. Some teams were looking for that final piece that makes them championship material. Others simply were looking for a player that helps them get into the postseason. Lastly, there were a few who look at this time of the year as the highlight of the season as their team struggles to even be competitive on a nightly basis so might as well position themselves for the upcoming lottery. Whatever the reasons, all fans hoped their team would have made a trade or two that improved future prospects. Question is, how often can these deadline deals really be coined successful?
Wondering what will be the effects of all the major deals prior to today’s deadline? Well, worry no more as Justin and I are here to help clear up any confusion. I’ll handle the relevant fantasy perspective while Justin will tackle the realistic implications in a subsequent article. If we happen to miss anything or you simply have a question, as always, feel free to leave a comment below.
Sorry for the delay guys, but there was a football game yesterday and it happened to include my favorite team – the New Orleans Saints. With their monumental win, there had to be an equally impressive celebration on my part. Laissez le bon temps rouler!
Against all odds, it appears the Memphis Grizzlies are no longer one of the worst teams in basketball this season. Wednesday’s overtime victory against the Cleveland Cavaliers showed exactly how far this young team has progressed since last year. As evidenced by his performance against the Cavs, Zach Randolph (34 points on .526/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three on 1.00 percent shooting, 14 rebounds including 7 offensive boards, 2 assists, 4 steals, 1 blocks and 1 turnover) has emerged as one the Grizzlies’ primary weapons and leaders on the court.
Gulp.
Anyone who watches basketball knows that over the years, Randolph has accumulated quite a rap sheet from his off the court antics. Shoplifting, battery, underage drinking, fighting with teammates, driving while under the influence of marijuana, reckless driving, etc. On the court, Zandolph has also built up a solid resume of selfish play and boneheaded mistakes that has caused him to bounce around since the Jailblazers era. He is a lock for 20 and 10 almost every night but his quest to “get his” has often come at the expense of wins for his teams.
Exhibit A: Worst. Possession. Ever.
On young teams, veteran leadership is crucial to team success. At 28 years of age on one of the younges teams in the league, Randolph has to be considered a veteran leader, for better or worse. Take a look at the ages of the other starters for Memphis: Mike Conley (22), O.J. Mayo (22), Rudy Gay (23) and Marc Gasol (25). In addition, the rotation also includes two rookies in DeMarre Carroll(23) and Hasheem Thabeet (22), second-year project center Hamed Haddadi (24) and fourth year point guard Marcus Williams (24). The only other main rotation player older than Randolph is Jamaal Tinsley (31) who also comes with his own set of on and off the court baggage.
When a front office takes such a young and promising roster and makes Randolph the primary veteran leader on the floor and in the locker room, it raises more than a few eyebrows. Most people (myself included) expected an absolute train wreck from day one. In reality, just the opposite has occurred. The Grizz so far have improved their winning percentage from last season (.293 in 2008-09 compared to .429 this season). They’ve managed to win eight out of their last twelve games including wins over quality opponents such as Cleveland, Dallas and Portland.
But why should we think Randolph is a major reason for the Grizzlies’ success this season?
First, the Grizzlies have had a relatively stable roster since last season with Z-Bo being the main addition. The Grizzlies added a couple of rotation rookies via the draft this offseason, but certainly not immediate impact players, like Tyreke Evansor Brandon Jennings. The Grizzlies also dabbled in free agency, including Jamaal Tinsley and Allen Iverson(spectacular fail), and trades (Z-Bo). But Memphis’ main core was largely intact. Last season, the combination of Mayo, Gay, Gasol, Conley, Darrell Arthur and Haddadi accounted for 64 percent of Memphis’ minutes. This season, that same crew is responsible for 58 percent of the Grizz’s minutes, with the difference being Arthur’s 7 percent out of the rotation due to injury. Randolph represents the single biggest addition this season and has logged 15 percent of the team’s minutes.
Second, there has been a strong correlation between how Randolph performs and whether the Grizzlies win. It seems that every team has at least one “barometer” player that they depend on to play well in order to win basketball games. For example, for the Suns it is Jason Richardson; for the Thunder it is Jeff Green. For the Grizzlies this season, it has been Zach. In the ten games in which Randolph has tallied twenty or more points, Memphis is 7-3. Clearly there is some anecdotal evidence supporting the claim that Randolph is a major reason for why the Grizzlies have improved this season.
So what does Randolph bring to the table and has his game changed this season?
Randolph brings a legitimate scoring threat from the four position, which the Grizzlies sorely lacked last season. It is also important to note that Z-Bo can create his own shot in iso situations, which again Memphis lacked from it’s big men ranks. About half of his shot attempts are jump shots and half are close (at the rim and tip-ins). His close attempts are largely a result of his excellent work on the offensive glass (ZR currently ranks first in total offensive rebounds and fourth in offensive rebound percentage). He also ranks among the league leaders in field goals (12th), field goal attempts (19th), total rebounds (8th), points (20th), rebounds per game (10th), PER (17th) and total rebound percentage (15th). Zach is clearly an asset on the offensive side of the floor, although it should be noted that he has ranked among the league’s worst outlet passers when it comes to igniting the fast break.
Zach’s liabilities are exposed on the defensive end of the floor. This season, the Grizzlies have allowed opponents to score 1.5 more points when Randolph is on the floor than when he sits. In addition, he doesn’t really do anything exceptionally on the defensive end. He doesn’t steal the ball (0.7 steals per game, career), he doesn’t block shots (0.3 blocks per game, career) and he doesn’t draw many charges (0.05 charge rate; for reference Steve Nashhas a charge rate of 0.50). One of his positives on the defensive end of the floor is that Z-Bo rarely fouls (2.4 per game over his career). It is clear that Memphis did not bring Randolph in to be a defensive game-changer.
This season, there have been some noticeable changes to Randolph’s game. His usage has dropped considerably from his career average of 28.1 percent to 23.7 percent this season, which represents his lowest usage since 2002-03. Most surprisingly, he has accepted this lower usage rate gracefully which has no doubt contributed to better team chemistry on and off the court. His shot selection has also experienced minor changes; most notably he has cut down on three point attempts (down to 0.2 per game this season from 1.9 last season) with positive effects on his field goal percentage.
It is also interesting to note that his field goal percentage is over .500 on the season for the first time since 2002-03, the same season in which he saw his lowest usage percentage. This combination of lower usage and less three point attempts has allowed Randolph to score more efficiently this season, which is always a good thing. These two trends can most likely be attributed to the influence of Coach Lionel Hollins as it is doubtful that Zach would make these changes on his own. The result has been a net positive for Zach and the young Grizz squad.
But what about team success? We’ve always known Randolph could ‘get his’ but is it leading to more wins this season?
To evaluate team success, Dean Oliver provided us with a simple and powerful means of breaking down offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in his seminal book on advanced basketball statistics, Basketball on Paper. If you haven’t read Dean’s book, I highly recommend it, as he is largely responsible for kicking advanced basketball metrics into high gear. The Four Factors Oliver came up with to explain team success (or lack thereof) can loosely be thought of as shooting (eFG%), turnovers (TOV%), rebounding (ORB%) and free throws (FT/FGA). Oliver used these simple categories to analyze teams on both the offensive and defensive end of the floor.
Let’s examine Memphis’ Offensive Four Factors from last season and compare them to this season.
On offense, it appears that Randolph did help make the Grizzlies better. In particular his .505 effective field goal percentage (on 15.1 attempts) has helped provide modest increases in Memphis’ team effective field goal percentage. Z-Bo has had the biggest effect on the offensive glass, as we would expect from his league leading numbers in offensive rebounding. However, Memphis leaping to the number one spot in the league from 20th overall last season is what is really impressive. Obviously, Randolph is not solely responsible for the increase (Marc Gasol?) but he is no doubt a key player in these two improvements to the Grizzlies’ offensive efficiency.
Thus, the argument that Randolph has helped the Grizzlies on the offensive end appears to be backed up by the offensive efficiency numbers. Now take a look at the Defensive Four Factors for Memphis.
2009-10 Defensive Four Factors
eFG%: .531 (29th, same)
TOV%: .129 (24th, MUCH WORSE)
ORB%: .267 (13th, same)
FT/FGA: .201 (5th, MUCH BETTER)
On the defensive end, it is more of a mixed bag for the Grizz. On the positive side, Memphis has been better about not fouling on defense. As mentioned earlier, Randolph does not foul very much, which has had a positive effect on the team as a whole. He is most likely only partly responsible for this improvement but you can probably also credit the progression of the young Grizzlies players in general. Learning how to play defense in the NBA without fouling takes experience; simple as that. They area in which the Grizzlies regressed defensively this season is in forcing turnovers, something which Randolph does not do very well at all. Randolph is most likely partly culpable as he doesn’t steal the ball, take charges or force defenders into making bad passes.
Some concluding thoughts.
It appears that this season, Z-Bo’s personal success is finally starting to translate into more team wins. Randolph’s skills fill a need for the Grizz; they needed a guy that can create his own shot and clean up the offensive glass. In the end, it appears that the gains on the offensive ends have outweighed the losses on the defensive end. With Gasol and Randolph beasting it for the young Grizzlies squad, maybe Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace might be a bit savvier than most people have given him credit for?
Legends are born the same way fortunes are made in basketball: through clutch late game heroics. Among active NBA players, Hedo Turkoglu has a reputation for being a late game assassin who will take and make big shots. After all, his nickname is the Michael Jordan of Turkey as a homage to the League’s undisputed king of clutch.
Since winning the Most Improved Player Award for the 2007-08 season, Turk’s stock has risen steadily, culminating in last season’s deep post-season run complete with an NBA Finals appearance. Along the way, Hedo has steadily become known for being a guy that can be relied upon to hit the big shot.
Shots like that game winner against the Celtics last season stick in our collective memory banks further reinforcing Turk’s mythical clutch status. They also helped Hedo get a nice payday from the Toronto Raptors, who paid a premium (over $50 million over five years) to obtain the six-foot-ten forward’s services.
Take a look at the following quote that was taken from a post from Hoop Doctors, as it is fairly representative of Hedo’s Turk perceived status as a clutch shooter. The post lists the NBA’s most clutch shooters and has Turk ranked fifth overall, ahead of truly clutch players such as Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony (neither of which make the list’s top fifteen clutch shooters).
Last season, Turk probably hit more clutch shots than anyone, but with a new home and a new team this season, it will be interesting if he still gets those same opportunities to be a game-saver. In the ’09 playoffs, Turkoglu showed he understands the moment by increasing his free throw, field goal, and 3-point percentages.
With that in mind, let’s first examine Turk’s shooting efficiency numbers.
Hedo’s shooting statistics are important because clutch shooting doesn’t only occur in the fourth quarter when the game is on the line. On the contrary, there are a number of important moments throughout a game that can be considered clutch. Coming out of a timeout in a must-score scenario involves clutch play whether in the first quarter of fourth. In fact, considering how precious each and every possession is in a basketball game, each play is rather significant and affects the outcome of the game.
So what do Hedo’s shooting statistics tell us about Hedo the shooter?
A lot actually.
In general, Hedo is not an elite shooter, no matter how you slice and dice the numbers. Looking at the raw shooting statistics, Turk is actually a below average shooter from the field, shooting .439 from the field this season this season and .413 last season. From deep, Turk is a fairly average shooter relative to all players that play over 30 minutes a game, shooting .398 this season and .356 last season. The raw numbers don’t look so hot but couldn’t that be a function of Hedo taking a large number of threes (4.6 three point attempts this season and 4.9 attempts in 2008-09)?
To control for three point attempts when considering shooting efficiency, consider effective field goal percentage. Effective field goal percentage compensates three pointers by weighting them according to their value (1.5 times a normal field goal). This season, Turk’s effective field goal percentage is slightly higher than the league average for players playing over 30 minutes a night (.523 versus average of .501). Last season, Turk was slightly below average (.478 versus an average of .506). Nothing mind blowing here and Hedo can probably be considered an average shooter amongst NBA starters.
If you divide the NBA shooters loosely into tiers, Turkoglu would not qualify for elite status. For comparison’s sake, let’s take a look at two of the league’s leading shooters this season to have a benchmark for what elite shooting statistics look like. When talking about great shooters, there is no better poster child than two time MVP Steve Nash. The Canadian Kid’s raw shooting statistics this season are .529/.431/.942 percent shooting. He is on track to join the extremely selective 50/40/90 club (again). If you consider effective field goal percentage, Nash’s shooting looks even more impressive at .595 percent. For a more recent member to join the top tier of shooters in the NBA this season, look no further than sophomore swingman Anthony Morrow. Morrow’s raw statistics are extremely impressive at .529/.514/.885 percent. His ridiculous three point percentage is the main driver of his equally ludicrous .641 eFG%. Compared to top tier shooters, Turk pales in comparison.
So he may not be an elite shooter but what about Hedo the clutch shooter?
With that in mind, let’s boil Turk’s down to the most clutch of all moments: fourth quarter/overtime scenarios when the game is on the line. Using 82 Games’ clutch criterion, clutch play is furthered narrowed down to the last five minutes when neither team is ahead by more than five points. These plays are the essence of clutch and provide an objective way of sorting fact from fiction.
The data from 82 Games has not been updated for this season so we can only go off of last year’s data. Much of the data is provided in per-48 minute form, meaning the statistics are scaled to 48 minutes of clutch time (as defined earlier). In these 48 minutes of clutch time (based off of a sample size of 134 minutes for Turk), Hedo averaged 26.6 points, which was good for 51st overall. Not terrible, but certainly not elite. More damningly, however, is Turk’s efficiency from the field during clutch time (.357), which was significantly worse than his season average and was good for 156th overall.
Compare these clutch numbers to a player like Lebron James and the contrast is startling. In his 48 minutes (compiled from a sample size of 111 minutes), James averaged 55.9 points on .556 percent shooting from the field, which represents a marked improvement upon his normal field goal percentage of .489. A truly clutch player rises to the occasion and elevates their performance to another level when the game is on the line. Turkoglu’s statistical track record just doesn’t mesh with people’s percetptions of Hedo the fourth quarter assassin.
It appears Hedo’s clutch shooting might have been a bit overblown. How can you explain that?
At risk of getting too philosophical, the problem lies within each of our minds as humans (don’t say I didn’t warn you). People have selective memories where we remember events that coincide with our preexisting beliefs and ignore events that contradict our beliefs. When we see Turk hit a buzzer beater on Sports Center it reinforces the idea that he is a clutch shooter. When we see Hedo miss a clutch three, it goes down as a non-event because it doesn’t gel with our preexisting perception that Turk is a clutch shooter.
The line between success and setback blurred again for Turkoglu, who has developed into a clutch shooter for the Magic. With little time left in the game, Turkoglu has come up big for the Magic. His résumé includes a game-winning shot in the first round against the Philadelphia 76ers and several game-winners the past two regular seasons.
On Sunday Turkoglu delivered everything but the win.
“I saw an opening and threw it up,” Turkoglu said of his inbounds floater to Lee. “It would have been great for us because we played good.”
In this quote, you’ll notice that the author is paying homage to Turk’s reputation as a clutch shooter in a game that Turk didn’t even hit the game winner. In fact, the final shot wasn’t even put into his hands. Instead, the play was drawn up for Courtney Lee who infamously missed the wide open alley-oop. If Hedo was the clutch shooter as advertised, you can guarantee Coach Van Gundy would have drawn up the final play for Turk to shoot and not pass.
In the end, a lot of the blame for Turk’s inflated reputation as a clutch shooter lies with the media, who glorifies his late-game heroics (event) but ignores his failures (non-event). Once designated clutch, the media picks up the story and runs with it, creating a feedback loop. It parallels the talk from before this season’s draft, which had fans, announcers, coaches, players and everyone in between talking about what a weak draft pool it was. With Brandon Jennings increasingly the next anointed superstar, Tyreke Evans putting the Kings franchise on his back and first pick overall Blake Griffin having not even played a single minute yet this season, it is clear that the draft class of 2009 had bona fide superstars in its midst despite the media writing the entire class off as weak.
Before declaring Turkoglu one of the top five clutch shooters in the NBA based upon glowing accounts in the media, analyze the empirical evidence and make your own informed decision.
According to Yahoo! Rankings, guess who was the most valuable player during week 5? Old unreliable Marcus Camby. Hard to argue though considering he averaged (over a 4 game span) 12.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2.5 steals and 3.0 blocks. You want efficiency too? How about a 58 FG% and only 1.3 TO’s? Lesson here is to start thinking about selling high (if you haven’t already). He’s injury prone, 35 years old and a Blake Griffin return is on the horizon.
Week Six Schedules
Four Games: CHI, DAL, GSW, IND, MIA, MIL, NYK, PHO, TOR, WAS
Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DEN, DET, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, PHI, SAC, UTA
Two Games: LAC, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, SAS
ADD LIST(players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)
Ersan Ilyasova – We’ve been touting this guy for 3 weeks now but he’s still only owned in 40% of all yahoo leagues. This past week, he averaged 14.5 points (on 42.6 FG% and 77.8 FT%), 1.3 3ptm, 8.8 rebounds, 1.5 stls with only .5 TO’s. With Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut still disabled and the Bucks enjoying a 4 game week, he could be a serious monster.
Luke Ridnour – As previously stated, Redd is still looking at missed games due to a sore knee. In his stead, Luke has been hot when given solid run. He’s averaged 15 points (on 54.5 FG% and 100 FT%), .8 3ptm, 3.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and .8 steals. He has the makings of a very good short term pickup so go ahead and take advantage.
Jamaal Tinsley – Never would have imagined I’d be touting the Tinman, but he has emerged as the best PG in Memphis. Although he hasn’t officially been named the starter, it appears it’s only a matter of time. His minutes are on a nice upward trend as Mike Conley is still mired in a season long funk. Jamaal will give a boost in points, assists and steals with occasional 3’s.
Martell Webster – He’s probably been tossed between the waiver wire and a roster more than once, but he’s worth owning again. Brandon Roy has spoken so no more 3 guard starting lineups. Over the past five games, he has also shown he’s over his shooting funk with a 50 FG%. In that span, he’s put up 14 points, 2.8 3’s, 5.8 rebounds and .8 blocks.
Nick Young – With Mike Miller’s recent injury, his DNP’s are long gone. This time, he seems to be taking advantage of it as in 3 games he’s averaged 17.3 points and 1.3 3ptm. Moreover, in watching the Wizards play the Heat, he impressed me. His game has expanded beyond just scoring as I saw him compete defensively, make the right play and look for teammates. It should translate into quite a few more boards, assists and defensive numbers than seasons past.
CUT LIST
Mike Conley – If Tinsley is on the add list, Conley definitely deserves to be on the cut list. He hasn’t been able to snap out of a season long funk as he’s shooting 37.5% from the field (27.8% from 3) while posting a career worst 2.4 TO’s. There is a good chance Mike will have a chance to regain significant time at the point down the line as Jamaal has been susceptible to injury or bad slumps himself. However, no reason to wait for this to happen with him on your roster.
Randy Foye – At this point, it seems he can’t even beat out Earl Boykins/Nick Young. If you picked him up when M&M went down, time to go back to the drawing board (unless 16 minutes of playing time is your cup of tea).
Brad Miller – Still owned in 50% of the leagues, uh why? Barring some extreme matchups or foul trouble by teammates, his minutes are clearly going towards Taj Gibson and company. Also, don’t forget that Tyrus Thomas will be in the mix in the not too distant future.
WATCH LIST
Omri Casspi/Donte Greene/Beno Udrih – Paul Westphal is still experimenting with lineups (until Kevin Martin returns) so the playing time and production of these 3 guys continues to waver. I expect Donte Greene to be the short term loser (even though he’s started the last 3 games). If he’s not hot, he’ll be sitting most 4th quarters to at least 1 if not both of the other guys. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Beno also recapture a starting gig next to Tyreke Evans.
Allen Iverson – AI’s been beating on owners going back to last year but that may be changing in the near future. His recent hasty retirement sparked some controversy in NBA circles as many (Larry Brown, John Thompson, countless of teammates) felt he acted too abruptly. In my opinion, he is going to land on another roster (maybe Philly?) and could quite possibly turn out to be VERY relevant. AI was ready to take on the world at the start of this year, but it didn’t work out. Now with his supporters getting vocally behind him, I think it could give him the incentive to succeed this time round.
Jonas Jerebko – This Swede partially owes thanks to one of our loyal readers, John-O. I was going to include him in the Deep League Specials area, but with others noticing his production, he deserves to be on everyone’s watch list. Sunday, John Kuester changed his starting lineup to snap the Pistons out of their funk. Lo and behold, it wasn’t the rookie getting the short end of the stick but rather Charlie Villaneuva. To make matters even more appealing Charlie apparently broke his nose. Jonas won’t overwhelm as the guards rule the team but he’ll continue to see 30+ minutes a game in the short term while giving solid boards and chipping in points, 3’s and defensive numbers on occasion.
STAY THE COURSE
Jared Dudley – Jared has cooled considerably since his strong start, but I advise owners who still haven’t punted him to stick with him. First, Leandro Barbosa just hurt his ankle against the Raptors and appears he’ll be out anywhere from 2 games to 2 weeks. Second, the Suns have a 4 game schedule this week. Owners should prepare to be rewarded with solid 3’s and steals with decent points and boards.
Marcus Thornton – I know “buckets” hasn’t exactly set the world on fire the last 2 games but I don’t think his run is over. First, he’s still the Hornets most explosive wingman. Second, Peja has suddenly left the team for personal reasons. If you can withstand another 2 game week, I think he’ll satisfy owners down the road as Chris Paul will soon be in control of his destiny.
DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS
Robin Lopez – The other twin is back from injury and in his first game back, he had an immediate impact for the Suns (8 points, 7 boards, 1 steal, 2 blocks). Considering the need for a legitimate backup to Amare Stoudemire and Channing Frye, Robin should fill the role immediately. Announcers noticed in that first game, he was quite winded early so once his conditioning gets in order, he has a good chance to increase productivity and consistency.
Damien Wilkins – Kurt Rambis promised to shake up the lineup and in Sunday’s game Wilkins started for the first time since the start of the season. Considering the Wolves upset the Nuggets at their place while he contributed 15 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists, I’d say he’s earned at least a few more starts.
At this point, the remaining Kings fans are probably all thinking the same thing, but aren’t saying it because it sounds a little crazy. It’s the idea that the Sacramento Kings are actually playing better without their best player and leader, Kevin Martin. It sounds ludicrous, but the anecdotal evidence is mounting and the battle lines are forming. Time for another Great Debate.
For being such a great scorer, it is amazing to think that Kevin might actually hurt a team more than he helps. But before we dig too deeply, just how good of a scorer is the other K-Mart? To put it in perspective, Martin was scoring 30.0 points per game, after only Carmelo Anthony (30.2) and Kobe Bryant (30.1), prior to his wrist injury earlier this season. That’s pretty good company right there. Thus, Martin is clearly a high usage scorer with a usage percent of 29.1 percent, which would be good for 11th overall this season if he qualified for inclusion on the leader board.
But scoring and scoring efficiently are two different things all together. So what about K-Mart’s scoring efficiency? His effective field goal percentage is .500 percent (versus a league average .494 percent) and his true shooting percentage is .577 this season (versus a league average of .531 percent). So it is safe to say that Martin is a high usage scorer that also is above average in scoring efficiency. Definitely a pretty ideal combination for a team’s primary or secondary scoring option.
With that being said, how is it possible that a team could be better without Martin on the floor?
Theory One: The Kings are Better Without K-Mart
Those that believe the Kings are better without Martin on the floor will first point to the Kings’ record. The proof is in the pudding, they say. With Martin in uniform this season, the Kings are a paltry 1-4 (.200 win-loss percentage). With Kevin riding the pine this season, the Kings are 4-5 (.444 win-loss percentage). Granted, the Kings don’t have a winning record without Kevin but their win-loss percentage has improved noticeably in his absence. So it appears there is some evidence for the argument that the Kings might be better off without Martin in the lineup.
Beyond the Kings’ record, there are other metrics that give credence to Theory One. In looking at On/Off data from 82games for Martin, the case against K-Mart continues to build. With Martin on the floor, the Kings had an O-Rating of 106.6 and a D-Rating of 117.2, for a net of -10.6 points per 100 possessions. Ouch — not what you want if you are trying to win basketball games. With Martin firmly entrenched on the bench, Sacramento had an O-Rating of 110.6 and a D-Rating of 107.4, for a net of +3.2 points per 100 possessions. So to recap, the Kings have been worse both offensively (-4.0 points per 100 possessions) and defensively (+9.8 points allowed per 100 possessions) with Martin on the floor.
Most people who have watched Martin play would have probably conceded that he is a defensive liability but never would have thought him to be a liability on offense as well. If you take the Kings’ win-loss record and Martin’s On/Off data together, Theory One looks to be pretty convincing. But before you start demanding that the Maloofs trade K-Mart, take a look at the argument that says Kevin isn’t responsible.
Theory Two: K-Mart is Not the Problem
According to Theory Two, Martin being out of the lineup is not the cause for the King’s improved record but instead simply a correlation. Proponents of this theory will mention the names of two of Kevin’s teammates when presenting their case: Tyreke Evans and Beno Udrih. Each of these two players play a pivotal role in helping making the Kings better when Kevin Martin went down.
When picked fourth overall by the Kings in the 2009 NBA Draft, Evans was sold to the Sactown faithful as the point guard of the future. True to their word, the Kings started Evans at the one from the opening tip, allowing Martin and Evans to make up the Kings’ starting backcourt. This moved Udrih to the bench backing up the young and promising rookie. From the start, Evans numbers were pretty nice for a rookie and no one was complaining. But once Martin went down, Evans’ numbers really took off.
So what changed?
The significant change was Beno Udrih moving into the starting five, sliding Evans over to the two. And the numbers have shown that Evans is hands down much more effective playing the off guard. Examining 82games’ positional data for Evans, Evans’ production compared to his opponent counterpart’s production clearly illustrates the difference. Playing point, Evans has had a PER of 11.5 while his opponent counterpart has had a PER of 22.8 for a -11.3 net. Playing the two, Evans has had a PER of 25.2 while his opponent counterpart has had a PER of 15.0 for a net of +10.2. What a difference playing the correct position can make. Switching Evans from the one to the two has had a huge impact on Evans’ effectiveness on both the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. Pretty convincing stuff.
But there is more to the story. As mentioned earlier, Martin’s injury has opened up increased PT for Udrih and he has definitely risen to the challenge. For evidence, examine Udrih’s splits as a starter/reserve this season. Coming off the bench, Udrih has averaged 9.8 points on .484/.750 percent shooting, 1.5 threes, 1.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers in 22.3 minutes per game. As a starter, Udrih has averaged 15.8 points on .509/.900 percent shooting, 1.1 threes, 2.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.1 blocks and 2.0 turnovers per game. As a starter, Udrih has played much more efficiently (both shooting and assist-to-turnover) and has been much better at than Evans at the point (as a reference, check out Beno’s positional data from 82games and notice that Udrih is a net positive).
According to Theory Two, Martin is not the problem. Instead, the problem was playing a shooting guard at the point and having an effective point guard wallow on the bench. With Martin out, Coach Paul Westphal tweaked his lineup with beneficial results.
Conclusion
Both theories have enough basis in fact to be believable. However, only one theory can be correct and it is to each person to make up their own mind. In my opinion, Kevin Martin is too good of a player for Theory One to be true. If he were a high volume, low efficiency scorer, it would be easier to give credence to Theory One. However, his efficient scoring alerts me to the fact that something else is probably to blame. Enter Theory Two, which stands to reason and is supported by factual evidence.
So where then does the blame lie?
One, as is usually the case, coaching is partially to blame. Granted it was only a few games, but Evans is clearly not a point guard but is instead a shooting guard. It took an injury to Kevin to make Coach Westphal realize this fact but I am sure he has gotten the memo after Evans has posted impressive line after impressive line. And two, the front office is culpable as well. The front office has the final say on who the Kings draft and they chose a player who plays the same position as their star player. They duped themselves into believing that Evans could be molded into playing an unnatural position. More often than not, attempts to change a player’s nature fails (see the Allen Iversonsaga).
One thing is for sure, though. Kevin Martin is not the one to blame.
Every year there are players who will begin the season at a torrid pace. They rebound, steal, block and shoot their way to the top of the fantasy rankings right out of the gate. Conversely, on the less exciting side, there are also players you drafted early hoping they will have a stellar season for your team only to find out that they are anything but the great player you had hoped for.
This dichotomy can be so maddening for some owners that it will cause them to make rash decisions that savvy managers can exploit for their own selfish purposes (winning). Everyone likes a good deal and the fantasy community is no different. If you can find a manager who is tired of watching one of their star players under-perform, offer him a trade for a player(s) of less clout. The idea is to trade for a top-notch type player while he is at his statistical worst, buy low. Or trade away your over-achiever for a slumping stud, sell high.
The Buy Low
Before any trades are proposed, you need to consider a few things about the player(s) you are giving up as well as the player(s) you are receiving. When buying low, consider that you are essentially hunting in the bargain-bin at your local thrift store. The items (players) may have been nice at one time but now are used and a little worn out.
A few things to consider. Is the player coming off a down season that was an anomaly when compared to the rest of his career? Think Josh Smith last year, a year where he had career-lows in basically every statistical category (points, blocks, assists, rebounds) versus his play this year. Hopefully that year was just that, an anomaly, and the player will hopefully bounce back to his previous success of seasons past. Also, consider any injury history. Any player coming off of a major injury or surgery is surely going to have his value discounted at draft time. Finally, the true buy low player, a guy who just flat-out is not playing well at all but has a strong past track record to use as a reference point.
Here are a few buy low candidates to consider early on in the season.
The Injured Player.Kevin Martin and Chris Paul are two fantastic fantasy players that are viable buy low candidates at this point in the season and illustrate the injury aspect well. No one wants to have an injured player on their roster. Its no fun watching one of your premier players accumulate zeros across the board night after night. After a few days or weeks of having to sit through an injury it can be beneficial to approach a slumping manager with a trade proposal for an injured star.
The other K-Mart has a hairline fracture in his left wrist that required surgery on November 9th. He is due out anywhere from 6-8 weeks but could be out longer as he doesn’t have the best track record for staying healthy. Owners needing a lift in threes, points, and free throw percentage may want to make a play for him. With a guy like Martin, it may make sense to wait a while to let the owner’s frustration grow to the breaking point.
Chris Paul is also out of action due to an ankle sprain and the initial prognoses is that he will be out for approximately one month. Making a trade proposal for CP3 requires a little bit more effort and tact. It is no easy process to get an owner to give up his number one pick, let alone the first or second overall pick in the draft. Paul is most likely only out a few weeks not an extended period so one would have to give up a quality player(s) that are not only healthy but are also producing top tier value. The key here is to not go too overboard in who you are willing to give up. Sure Paul can easily win a number of categories and possibly it all for your team but he isn’t worth it if you have to strip your roster to the bear bones just to acquire him. If Paul’s owner is losing bad it could benefit you to make a play for him ASAP while he is still out for a few weeks and the owner is still antsy to get a productive body in his lineup.
This type of buy low is especially effective when tried on managers at the bottom of the standings. They are more likely to be willing to deal an injured stud for lesser value in order to keep from falling too far behind and out of the playoff hunt.
The Player Returning from Injury. Pretty self explanatory here. Target a player who is just getting ready or has just returned from injury. Anytime a player has an injury that forces them to miss extended amounts of time, he usually comes back rusty and has a few bad games early on. Currently, there are multiple players that fit this bill including Kevin Love, Eric Gordon and Pau Gasol. Gordon and Love are still injured but are due back sooner rather than later and Gasol should be back to return Thursday night against the Bulls.
All three players are productive and can help virtually any team. When they do finally suit up, be sure to monitor their first couple of games. If they start out slow, send a trade proposal to open up tentative trade talks (nothing insulting). Most likely they will regain their form in a few games and will be right back to where they were before their injury. Just don’t wait too long because once they do fully recover, their value will drastically increase and your opportunity to buy low will be closed forcing you to pay full market value to obtain him.
Note: Be more cautious with major structural injuries that require months of rehabilitation as effects can often linger. Think Elton Brand trying to come back from his Achilles injury over the past couple of seasons.
The Slumping Player. Simple, go after any player who is performing below their career averages or your expected averages for this season. The idea here is the law of averages. If a player has performed at a certain (high) level for many years and is currently under-performing, he most likely will pick his game up at some point and eventually will end up performing at or near his career averages. A few players to consider under this model are Brand, Jose Calderon, Thaddeus Young and John Salmons.
All are in major slumps compared to their historical production and could be had on the cheap (well Brand’s window may be closed after his vintage performance against the Bobcats last night: 19 points on .471/.750 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 6 blocks and 1 turnover). One major caveat here is to be careful for a player currently slumping that also just signed a major extension, think Luol Deng in 2008-09, minus the stress fracture. Sometimes players just don’t have that fire in them after the big pay day and it can affect their entire season. For an excellent more in-depth article on Salmons, check out the latest Great Debate piece.
If one of your players is playing such great basketball that it seems unlikely that he will continue to keep pace, then selling high is your best option to get positive returns on your player investment.
The Injury Fill-In. Anytime a starter goes down he opens up a spot for a bench player to shine. They can often be great pick-ups for the short term but will quickly lose their value once the starter returns. One player to unload immediately, like as in yesterday, is Andray Blatche. With a Basketball Monster rank of 65th overall in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 53rd overall in per game value, Blatche’s value is as high as it ever will be. Antawn Jamison is back from a shoulder injury and the party is officially over for Andray. In Jamison’s first game back, Blatche had 6 points and zero rebounds in just over 17 minutes.
Rookies. Rookies have become more intriguing over the past couple of years and are capable of making an immediate fantasy impact. Guys like O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose had managers salivating last season. This year, Tyreke Evans, Blake Griffin (even though he hasn’t even played a game yet) and Brandon Jennings have all been hot commodities. Jennings in particular appears to have been the steal of the draft (in both real life and in fantasy) with an average draft position of 126th overall in Yahoo! leagues. His 55 point outburst against Golden State last week got everyone’s attention and if you are skeptical of his ability to continue at such a high rate, now is the time to start shopping him. His current Ziguana rank is 15th overall. I’m not saying he won’t be great the rest of the year because he easily can be, but consider that it is early in a long season.
Rookies are not used to the physical demands of the NBA and its grueling 82 game schedule. The fabled “rookie wall” is very important to consider. Usually sometime mid-season around the 45-50 game mark, rookies start to slow down and their production drops. It is part of the game, learning how to keep your body healthy for the length of the season and rookies sometimes forget that the season is a marathon not a sprint. Watch out for the rookie wall and consider selling high before it happens to your rooks, especially if you can get a proven stud in return.
The Injury-Prone Player. The classic sell high candidate is the injury-prone player. A guy who always seems to miss time each season but is a strong player when healthy. To look at it from another perspective, they have high per game values but low cumulative values. There are many players that fall into this category and it can often be tough to cut ties with a player who is playing to his full potential. This season there have been a number of players you could label as injury-prone who are healthy and are rewarding their owners.
Two of the best example are Staples Center big men Chris Kaman and Andrew Bynum. Over the past two seasons combined, they have missed 77 and 79 games respectively. But this year they are both healthy so far and are producing a per game Ziguana rank of 49th and 12th overall, respectively. When they are healthy they can carry your team in blocks and rebounding while providing solid percentages and points. But with multiple, serious injuries in the past, their durability is definitely an issue to consider. Kaman seems to have found his rhythm and is playing very well. Ongoing nagging injuries and simply being old could keep Marcus Camby “day-to-day” for longer than expected making Kaman’s production sustainable for the foreseeable future. Even with Blake Griffin due back next month from injury, expect Kaman’s value to hold strong. Bynum is a little more of a wild card. Two major knee surgeries in the past are signs owners might be a little scared of. However his 20.3 points on .591/.717 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11.8 rebounds 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.8 blocks and 2.3 turnovers make Bynum a major sell high candidate, just be sure you get quality value in return for the young center. Also, just remember that Bynum has posted these numbers with Pau on the floor this season, which is another reason to consider selling high on Andrew.
The eyes of the NBA world were all on a small group of young gentlemen, primed and ready to make a mark for themselves in a league full of hopes and dreams. It would start pretty much as expected for the likes of Blake Griffin, Hasheem Thabeet, Tyreke Evans and others. But what was supposed to be the beginning of an illustrious career in the NBA, quickly turned into a roller coaster ride of despair, then excitement, for one such prospect.
Originally considered a lottery pick by several outlets, a total of 25 teams passed up on DeJuan Blair, some of them twice (four times by the Timberwolves alone!). It wasn’t until the second round, at pick number 37 overall, when the San Antonio Spurs made Blair’s dream of playing in the NBA a reality. But even with the adversity of falling to the second round, this strong-minded young man was able to put things in perspective:
Despite being taken in the second round of the NBA Draft last night, Pitt All-American DeJuan Blair has no regrets about turning professional after his sophomore season.
“No, this is what I wanted,” Blair said this morning on a conference call the day after the San Antonio Spurs drafted him with the No. 37 overall selection. “I think it was a good decision. I couldn’t have landed in a better situation than I am in now. [San Antonio] just traded Kurt Thomas, their starting forward. It’s a dream come true. I should have been a first-round pick, but God wanted me to drop to the second round.”
So now comes the hard part. In many ways, the same dis-service to DeJuan Blair is now replaying itself over and over again in fantasy drafts all across the land. DeJuan Blair has fallen off the radar, not even making the ADP lists or rankings of several high profile fantasy sites (BFFA included!).
But what is there not to like about this kid?
In two years at the University of Pittsburgh, he averaged 13.6 points on 56.4% shooting, with 10.7 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Even by college standards, those are pretty good numbers. He was a consensus First Team All-American, and was the 2008-09 Big East co-Player of the Year, sharing that title with the 2nd overall pick in this year’s draft, Hasheem Thabeet.
So what could have possibly happened to make 25 NBA teams pass on DeJuan Blair? He’s not a bad person. He’s not a bad player. What gives?
The answer is simple…minus two.
As in the number of ligaments DeJuan Blair is missing… in his knees!
Yes, if you haven’t heard the story by now, DeJuan Blair is missing, not one, but both ACLs in his knees. Apparently, 25 NBA general managers feel it’s important to have one’s ACLs if one intends to play basketball in the NBA. The blurb in Yahoo!’s draft night recap even said this:
One team official even said he couldn’t find Blair’s ACLs on the medical scans.
Wow. Just the thought that such bias, such prejudice, towards a missing ligament could keep this young man from fulfilling his dream to play in the NBA. It’s simply unfathomable! And keeping him off your cheat sheet or ADP list – why, that’s undeniably inexcusable!
Alright, alright…yes, a bit much on the theatrics.
But the point is much the same – don’t sell DeJuan Blair short on draft day, especially in a deep league (14+ teams) or keeper and dyansty formats. In standard leagues, keep him on your watch list (unless you’ve taken a last round flier on him). And keep these points in mind when your friends are ragging on you for your lack of intelligence in taking DeJuan Blair:
DeJuan Blair had surgery on both his ACLs in high school. Since that time, Blair has played injury-free, never once missing a practice or game.
DeJuan Blair has numerous accolades throughout his high school and college career, including a high school state championship, and the 2007-08 Big East Tournament Championship.
In two “official” pre-season games with the Spurs, DeJuan Blair’s lines have been 16/19 with one steal, and 28/4 with two steals, respectively.
And if you’re still on the fence about Blair, consider this – when commenting on the Spurs latest acquisition, columnist Buck Harvey wrote:
Still, one staffer in the draft room Thursday said there were “cartwheels and high-fives,” and R.C. Buford later gushed as he rarely does about any draft pick.
An especially daring prediction: Blair will play 20 minutes a night.
And Gregg Popovich has said Blair will play this year. If he works his way into the rotation, he could be a very sneaky-good addition at the forward position.
He’s a player who could get the most out of 20 minutes plus per game. He’s a player who could easily average double digit scoring and rebounding. He’s a player with a strong conviction and strong work ethic – someone who will continue to fight for the ball, relentlessly, until he gets it.
And he’s a player with a chip on his shoulder the size of the great state he plays in.
To those 25 GM’s who passed on DeJuan Blair, Spurs fans have this to say…
With Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball up and running early this season, there is plenty of time to examine the data and prepare for drafts and the upcoming season. One important aspect to consider before drafting and assembling the perfect fantasy squad is position eligibility.
Each season is different and each season certain guys gain extra eligibility at a position you normally wouldn’t expect. Likewise, there are players that for some reason or another are missing a position eligibility they had last season or that they should have. Each fantasy sports provider has its own quirks and nuances and uses different criteria to make their position eligibility judgments. Make sure and examine your own provides list carefully.
Or, if you use Yahoo!, just continue reading. Your welcome.
Before getting into the nuts and bolts, take a step back and do some cursory research. Find out what the criteria are used to determine and assign position eligibility for your specific provider. The criteria will be laid out somewhere on their website. Or again, just continue reading.
Initial position eligibility for each player was determined based on past participation and information supplied by NBA teams during the off-season.
Players are eligible at one or more positions during the current Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Basketball season depending upon their real-life participation.
All position eligibility requests are reviewed by Yahoo! Sports and confirmed with our NBA sources. Due to the nature of the review process, we’re unable to comment on each individual player request.
So the eligibility is somewhat based upon real life and is subject to Yahoo!’s discretion. The Yahoo! Help page also lays out how position eligibility can be added throughout the regular season. This is also important to note because the eligibility is supposed to mirror real life to a certain degree. So when you see position changes in real life, Yahoo! is supposed to mimic that change as well.
Updates are made during the regular season based on changes to the lineups and official team rosters. Players don’t lose position eligibility when moving from one real-life position to another. So, if a forward starts to play regular shifts as a center, he’s eligible for the remainder of the season as a forward and a center.
New positions are added when it’s confirmed that a player’s primary position has changed and that the change is not expected to be a temporary one.
When a player has earned eligibility at a new position, it will be displayed wherever player positions are shown.
The key to Yahoo!’s in-season updates is that new position eligibility is to be assigned based upon permanent changes to a player’s primary position. With that in mind, don’t get too bogged down in the details. Just something to keep in my mind as you review the position eligibility list. I definitely recommend perusing the list for yourself as different changes will stand out to different managers.
I reviewed the top 250 players (according to Yahoo!’s O-Rank) examining only their position eligibility. I compared their assigned eligibility to a combination of last season’s eligibility and my expected position eligibility for each player. Not exactly hard science. Then, each player was classified into groups.
Here are the results.
The Rookies
This season’s first pick overall, Blake Griffin (SF/PF), also provided the first eligibility surprise for rookies: small forward status. Griffin seemed a lock to gain power forward status but also could have been though of as a longshot for center eligibility if the Clippers decided to play small ball. Small forward status is just icing on the cake as he is not pigeon-holed into the “PF only” category.
The next group of rookies contains players that obtained eligibility at both guard positions. This group includes Johnny Flynn (PG/SG); Stephen Curry (PG/SG); Tyreke Evans (PG/SG); and James Harden (PG/SG). Some of these are more surprising than others. In particular Flynn and Harden are both surprising but for different reasons; Flynn surprisingly gained shooting guard eligibility and Harden gained point guard eligibility.
The next two players’ eligibility was very surprising indeed. Both DeMar DeRozan (SG/SF/PF) and Terrence Williams (SG/SF/PF) were given eligibility at shooting guard and both forward positions. This means these two guys can be played at shooting guard, guard, small forward, power forward, forward or utility. Now that is versatility.
Of all the fantasy stars out there, no one gets overlooked and undervalued more often than Dirk Nowitzki (PF). That is scientific fact although no scientific studies were actually undertaken. Normally, it wouldn’t be surprising that Dirk only obtained power forward eligibility with his well-known preference to play the four and not the five. However, with Shawn Marion (SF/PF) on board, there is widespread speculation that Marion might spend some quality time at the four with Dirk at the five. Stay tuned and keep an eye out for added center eligibility for Nowitzki.
In an about face, the next guy is one guy people can’t stop talking about and overvaluing. As of now, Gilbert Arenas (PG) is slated to be have point guard eligibility only. While not entirely unexpected, it is important to note that and not rely on Agent Zero having dual guard eligibility. In fact, it is probably a good idea not to rely on Arenas for anything.
Everyone’s hottest sleeper of the summer, Anthony Randolph (PF), has been given only eligibility at the four. This is surprising because of Randolph’s real life versatility. It is compounded by the fact that Anthony plays for Coach Don Nelson, who is known for his unconventional lineups and could potentially play three (or more) positions. For a system, that is supposed to mimic real life, Randolph having power forward eligibility only is certainly an airball on Yahoo!’s part.
Every season, there are a certain number of players that maintain eligibility for a certain position when the probably shouldn’t (bonus!). That is a great thing, because the more flexible your squad is the greater your chances of building a championship caliber squad are. This season, Kevin Durant (SG/SF) has maintained his shooting guard eligibility even though he has played almost totally at the three since Coach P.J. Carlesimo was fired early last season after a rocky start. The switch also coincides with the Durantula’s ascent to fantasy god status.
Similarly, Memphis’ Rudy Gay (SF/PF) plays almost exclusively at the three so the power forward eligibility can be viewed as an added bonus. With new addition and black holeZach Randolph around, Gay will most likely spend even less time at the four next season (Darrell Arthur should also be picking up scrap minutes behind Z-Bo).
This season, there is a group of big men that received small forward eligibility. For some, like Utah’s Paul Millsap (SF/PF), it comes as a surprise. If anything, Millsap should have eligibility at power forward and center, not small forward. But you can only hope that Yahoo! fixes that during the season, which would make Millsap extremely versatile with SF/PF/C eligibility.
The final group of players is guys who have eligibility at both guard positions. Most of these guys should come as now surprise, including the newest Timberwolf, Ramon Sessions (PG/SG). He should see some run at the two guard alongside rookie lotter selection Johnny Flynn. The real mystery is how Flynn walked away with eligibility at both guard positions but it’s usually a good idea to never question a good thing.
A roundup like this is a useful reference but cannot subsitute for actually sitting down and reviewing the position eligibility list yourself. Take careful note of where eligibility assignments differ from your own opinion of position eligibility and keep these issues in mind when drafting.
The next step in breaking down the pre-draft data is scouring the Yahoo! O-Ranks and average draft position lists to see which players are being overvalued, undervalued and slept on.
