Strategy: The Allure of the One Game Wonder
The NBA basketball season is underway and with that a number of us are participating in various fantasy leagues. It’s obviously an exciting time as we get to see how our newly drafted teams kick off the year. A few will be happy with the initial results, but most of us will have qualms about at least a player or two on our roster. To add to the confusion, there are several guys just sitting on the waiver wire begging to picked up after putting up an enticing line or two. Should we jump the gun and pick them up? Or will we regret our decision and feel like the league’s laughing stock?
Since most of us play in standard sized leagues (12 teams each with 13 players), I’m going to gear the examples in this article towards them. Before you pick up that alluring free agent, I want you to ask yourself 3 questions.
First, regarding the player in question, will he have an opportunity to put up serviceable numbers consistently for at least the near future? The main thing you want to examine is minutes. Inconsistent time on the court is almost always going to lead to spotty production.
There are numerous indicators that point to solid time. Perhaps the player just fell into a solid role due to a teammate’s injury. Maybe he emerged as the leading candidate from a position battle. Or he could be a young guy or a non-playoff team who improved significantly over the the summer.
Off the top of my head, some guys who come to mind so far this season that fit the bill are Andray Blatche, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Andres Nocioni, Danilo Gallinari, Ben Wallace, Corey Brewer, Roy Hibbert and Channing Frye.
On the other hand, guys like DeJuan Blair, Ty Lawson, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams and Jason Williams should probably be left on the waiver wire. They have all had a solid line or two, but in all their cases it is unlikely to continue. For instance, promising rookies like Blair and Lawson have had some eye-popping numbers but it came in blowouts where the starters played significantly less.
Next, you need to ask what is the free agent’s prior history? There are always a few players in the league who continue to entice owners year after year because they show a glimpse of good value. For example, this season, already Larry Hughes, Erick Dampier and Travis Outlaw have probably lured a few fantasy managers to pick them up.
However, it’s probably not a good idea. Hughes has a solid history of putting up an occasionally stellar line the last few years, but he can never sustain any consistent production. Moreover, he is currently getting quite a bit of run at the expense of Nate Robinson’s short term injury. Don’t forget Larry DEFINITELY-NOT-A Legend, made 1 of 23 shots in preseason.
Erick Dampier has currently enjoyed several solid lines, but I don’t think he’s turned back the clock. His numbers have been in steady decline since the Mavericks landed him 5 years. Also, newly signed Drew Gooden has missed several games due to a pulled rib cage muscle.
Travis Outlaw has the ability to score in bunches, but Portland is so deep that even with Nicolas Batum’s shoulder injury he’ll be more off than on. Martell Webster is still the starter and most nights they’ll cancel out one another’s value with the dreaded fantasy time share.
Third, how useful will the free agent be on my team? For Rotisserie and Points leagues, this may not be that large of an issue since every player has similar value to every other manager in the league. However, if you’ve already got two solid 3 point shooting guards on your bench, does it really make sense to add a third and thereby really limiting your team’s flexibility?
On the contrary, in Head to Head leagues, managers need to also examine whether the free agent will help their strengths. Many owners don’t (and rightfully so) try to be competitive in all the categories in their league. It just doesn’t make sense to try to win them all when it substantially reduces the odds of winning the majority of categories week in and week out. Thus, when picking up a free agent, a manager should always be aware of his strengths and improve on those, rather than fruitlessly worry about their weaknesses.
Naturally, you should ignore the last two paragraphs if the free agent in question looks like they’ll post top 100 value for an extended period of time. Even though the player may not suit your team, he will surely be coveted by someone else and would make excellent trade bait.
Over the course of the season, I’m going to try to touch on a few subjects focusing on particular strategies everyone should be aware of in fantasy basketball. If any of you would like to see a particular topic discussed, feel free to email me or leave a comment at the end of the article.
