Basketball Free For All

Week 11 was dominated by the Gilbert Arenas saga finally coming to a head, leaving owners with tough decisions to make about whether to hold or fold their Agent Zero hand. More on that dilemma and the fantasy fallout below. Beyond that, we saw Danny Granger and Troy Murphy return to the starting lineup for the Pacers, altering the fantasy landscape in Indy for the thousandth time this season. Along with the Golden State Warriors, the Pacers have been one of the most unpredictable fantasy teams so far this season.

Season Tracker

The 2009-10 season is 44 percent complete.

Week 12 Schedules

Four Games: DET, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, NOR, NYK, OKC, PHX, SAS, UTA, WAS

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, ORL, PHI, SAC, TOR

Two Games: NJN, POR

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 38%) For some inexplicable reason, Hinrich is still under the 40% ownership threshold despite being moved into the starting unit recently. In his eight starts this season, Hinrich averaged 12.1 points on .412/.769 percent shooting, 2.1 threes, 4.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Another key statistic to look at with Captain Kirk is his three point percentage, as the Bulls are desperate for outside shooting. As a reserve, he has shot a pedestrian .322 percent from downtown. As a starter, he has shot an impressive .459 from long range. Hinrich deserves pretty much universal roster consideration.

Erick Dampier (C – 37%) For the entire season, Dampier is putting up top-100 value while providing decent production for a third or fourth string center. His season averages are 8.0 points on .667/.582 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.4 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 turnovers. Dampier is a four category specialist (FG%, REB, BLK, TOs) while being a negative in the remaining five categories. He finally appears to be getting healthy again after having to deal with “wear-and-tear” of the left knee. Give Damp a go if you are looking for traditional big man stats and can handle his low scoring.

Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 27%) There has been widespread speculation that Gomes would be moved into Minnesota’s starting five sometime relatively soon. Regardless of whether or not he is starting, Ryan should get enough burn to provide fantasy value, especially for those looking for decent scoring off the waiver wire. Over the past two games, Gomes has averaged 15.0 points on .458/.875 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Gomes, while normally primarily simply a scorer, has shown flashes of stat-stuffing. Add Ryan if you have a dropable player to see if he can improve upon his recent strong play.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 21%) Some players just don’t get much respect, whether it be in real life or in fantasy basketball. Apparently, Rasual Butler is one of those players as his actual value and ownership percentage are definitely out of whack. Over the past two weeks, a period that saw Butler play in six games and average over 34 minutes per game, he posted top-50 value. During that period Rasual averaged 12.8 points on .467/.857 percent shooting, 2.5 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. Butler is a nice glue guy, providing a nice boost in threes on low turnovers while also providing decent blocks for a guard-eligible player.

Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 21%) Another player that has had a nice run over the past two weeks is Matt Barnes. You may recall Barnes being featured in last week’s preview article by my distinguished colleague, RedHopeful. Pretty much everything Oleh said then still stands. Over the past two weeks, Matt has averaged 13.4 points on .600/.778 percent shooting,1.1 threes, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.4 turnovers.

Rafer Alston (PG – 18%) Alston has to feel like the luckiest player in the NBA right now; it is an absolute certainty. Rafer was waived by the league’s worst team, the 3-33 New Jersey Nets, and signed with the 18-16 Miami Heat, who are currently the fifth best team in the East. In his first game in a Heat uniform (this season), he immediatley leap-frogged both Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers and joined the starting unit. Skip is in line for big minutes for the Heat and should be a good choice for threes, assists and steals if you can handle his offensive field goal percentage.

Ronny Turiaf (PF/C – 6%) It’s always a gamble recommending any Golden State Warrior these days but Turiaf feels like a very strong player for a couple of reasons. First, Anthony “Everyone’s Favorite Sleeper” Randolph recently went down with an ankle injury with no official timetable released yet. However, the injury appears to be relatively serious so we can assume he’ll miss all of this week’s games. Second, fellow big man Andris Biedrins has struggled getting up to speed since returning from his groin injury that sidelined him for most of the season. By default, Turiaf becomes one of the Warriors primary big men in the rotation and he should be an excellent source of blocks off the wire.

Watch List

J.J. Redick (PG/SG – 16%) With Vince Carter out with an injured shoulder, Redick immediately gets upgraded to watch list status. In Carter’s absence, Redick posted a strong line against the Atlanta Hawks dropping 17 points on .583 percent shooting, 3 threes, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. He has even been praised by Coach Stan Van Gundy recently for his play throughout the entire season. In fact, Redick has been really solid over the past four games seeing over 28 minutes per and averaging 16.5 points on .422/.895 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.5 turnovers.

Flip Murray (SG – 5%) If you are looking for cheap scoring off the waiver wire, there may not be a better option out there than Murray. RIght now, Flip is locked-in and playing excellent basketball for the Bobcats. Over the past week, Ronald is ranked well inside of the top fifty players averaging 17.3 points on .550/.933 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.5 turnovers in four games. His percentages are excellent, making his scoring and threes that much more valuable.

A.J. Price (PG/SG – 1%) A.J. officially proved that he belonged in this league after being selected in the second round of this season’s draft. Price set multiple career-highs against the Thunder on Saturday including minutes played, points scored and threes made. In that watershed game, Price posted 23 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 3 threes, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, o blocks and 2 turnovers. With the Pacers going nowhere this season and both Earl Watson and T.J. Ford playing themselves out of the rotation, Price is poised to carve himself a nice niche for the Pacers.

Deep League Special

Donte Greene (SG/SF – 4%) Greene’s window of opportunity is rapidly closing. With Kevin Martin due back sometime relatively soon, Greene will likely take a hit in touches, minutes and production. Thus, Donte should only be viewed as a short-term band-aid in deeper leagues. Over the past two weeks, he has put up top-100 value, making him an extremely valuable pickup in deep formats. In that same span, he averaged11.4 points on .489/1.00 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.0 turnovers.

Keyon Dooling (PG – 2%) At this point in his career, Dooling is a proven commodity, with a decade of experience in the Association. Playing for a relatively young and inconsistent team, he is a veteran presence on and off the court. While he is still rounding into game shape after having offseason hip surgery, Dooling finally showed signs of life recently when he dropped 21 points on the Hornets on Friday. His career per-36 minute stats are 13.3 points on .420/.798 percent shooting, 1.o threes, 2.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.1 turnovers and are a good guide if Dooling were to consistently get big minutes either due to injury of a teammate or simply due to the inconsistent play of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts.

Jon Brockman (SF/PF – 1%) If awesome nicknames were a fantasy category, the Brockness Monster would be a category carrier. But alas, we are left with having to rely on actual production on the basketball court. In that respect, Brockman’s toughness and football-like build have translated to him being an absolute beast on the boards and earning his fresh nickname (12.8 rebounds per-36 minutes). Recently, Brockman even got the starting nod against Denver pushing teammate and general fantasy disappointment Spencer Hawes to the bench. Grab the rebounding monster if you need help on the glass.

Cut List

Larry Hughes (SG/SF – 39%) The Knicks have won three of their last four games. Hughes has seen four consecutive DNP-CDs. Coincidence? I think not. Larry, welcome to Coach Mike D’Antoni’s dog house. Make yourself comfortable; you’re gonna be here a while.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 20%) It is hard to recommend a player for cutting who posted such nice fantasy value earlier in the season. However, barring a trade involving either Elton Brand or Samuel Dalembert, Speights is most likely going to be without fantasy value. If you want further proof that his run is (for now) over, check out his minute totals for his past four games: 6:22; 9:51; 12:01 and 11:11.

Luther Head (PG/SG – 12%) What a difference a week can make. Last week, he was on our Add List. This week he is on our Cut List. That is Luther Head’s career in a nutshell.

Buy Low

Caron Butler (SG/SF – 98%) With Agent Zero suspended indefinitely, Butler has moved up the food chain a notch in Washington. Butler’s best seasons of fantasy value have come with Arenas on the sidelines so there is hope to believe that he will resume his productive ways of the past (top five in per game value in 2007-08 when Arenas only played 13 games; top 30 in per game in 2008-09 when Arenas only played two games). At this point in the season, Butler has posted only top-75 value so it is a decent bet that he will have a much better second half of the season with Arenas most like done for the year.

Pau Gasol (PF/C – 99%) It may be hard to consider top ten player a buy low but that is exactly the case with Pau. Having missed a decent number of games this season with hamstring injuries on both legs, many owners are getting tired of the Lakers’ kid glove treatment of Gasol. When owners are frustrated or are struggling in the standings, you can often get a good deal for the right player. Throw out a solid second-round talent for Pau and see if the other owner bites. You may end up with one of the best big men in both fantasy and in real life.

Sell High

Samuel Dalembert (C – 64%) The problem with selling high is that nobody wants to do it because owning a hot player is so much fun. It’s why we play fantasy sports. However, with a guy like Sammie, if you can get enough value for him you have to pull the trigger. Over the past two weeks, Dally has been a top five talent. Stop and let that sink in. TOP FIVE. During that span, he has averaged 10.9 points on .667/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 3.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. He will never be able to keep this pace up for the rest of the season, especially not with Eddie Jordan waiting in the wings to screw everything up. SD is the qunitessential sell high right now.

Lamar Odom (SF/PF – 89%) With Pau out for at least one more game, your window to move Odom for maximum value is limited. Over the past week, Odom has been positively beastly, putting up a rugged 14.0 points on .548/.700 percent shooting, 0.8 threes, 15.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.0 turnover. Wow. In that span of four games, Odom has been a top ten player in per game value so throw out some trade offers and see if you can get a bona fide stud in return for Mr. Kardashian.

Mystery Man

Gilbert Arenas (PG – 73%) At only 73 percent ownership, the Great Arenas Exodus of 2010 has begun. Let’s face it, the chances of Gilbert playing again this season are slim. However, it is not so cut and dried as to whether he should be simply kicked to the curb; thus, Agent Zero is this week’s Mystery Man. In standard sized, non-keeper, head-to-head leagues Arenas can probably be safely dropped at this point. In roto leagues, where it is easier to carry dead weight, it probably makes sense to stick it out with Gil for a bit until we have more concrete timelines. In deeper formats, it makes more sense to hang on to Gibert if your team can afford to maintain a dead roster spot. Finally, in keeper and dynasty formats, dropping Arenas is not recommended until we hear exactly how harsh his final punsihment will be. Gilbert’s future with the Wizards and the League is truly a mystery at this point so weigh your options carefully before you decide to part ways with this dynamic guard.

Plonden gets two thumbs up for being able to peer into the future.  No, not for making any solid picks, but rather realizing we could use another writer or two around here.  Haha!  Honestly, we both happened to be without solid computer access for most of the week – hey it’s the holidays, right?  For this, we apologize but we vow to get back to posting multiple articles every week.

Ok, on to the good stuff!  Hopefully, some of you were able to nab Leandro Barbosa, Yi Jianlian, Jameer Nelson or Tyrus Thomas returning from injury.  If not, keep on reading then as you probably have a need to replace some dead wood on your rosters.

Week Ten Schedules

Four Games:  CHA, CLE, IND, LAL, MIN, NYK, OKC, PHI, SAC, SAS

Three Games:  ATL, BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, MEM, MIA, MIL, NJN, NOH, ORL, PHO, POR, TOR, UTA, WAS

Two Games:  DET, LAC

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

DeJuan Blair (SF/PF/C – 11%) – Everyone’s favorite preseason rookie is finally getting minutes including a season high of 35 against the Knicks this past Sunday.  Apparently not everyone has jumped all over him yet so check your leagues now.  His per 36 numbers are fantastic – close to 60 FG%, 14.6 points, 13 rebounds, .9 steals and 1.3 blocks.

James Harden (PG/SG – 38%) – The last 6 games, James is averaging just about 28 minutes a game.  Over that time span, he’s averaging 13.2 points, 1 3ptm/steal, 3.7 boards, 2.2 assists and 1.2 TO’s.  It appears his role will be consistent going forward so expect these numbers to remain (in case you’re wondering, ziguana has him ranked 87th the last 12 days which includes the dismal 41.7 FG%).

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 29%) – Soon to be fired Vinnie Del Negro has put Kirk into the starting lineup (not that it really mattered considering he’s been over 30 minutes a game since his return from injury).  Over the last 5 games, Kirk has averaged 11 points, 1.6 3ptm, 4.6 boards and 3.8 assists.  It’ll be interesting to see what a new coach decides to do, but he’s worth owning at least in the interim as he’s admitted he’s more comfortable in a starting role.

Juwan Howard (SF/PF/C – 10%) – With Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla done for the year, Juwan has been pushed into a prominent role.  Most likely, the Blazers will pick up another big man but in the meantime give him a look for solid FG% and good rebounding.  Since becoming a starter, he’s put up 8.7 points, 10 boards on 54 FG%.

Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 22%) – Him again?!?  Unfortunately yes.  First, he’s looking at a four game week so regardless of the subpar play, he should be able to put up useful numbers over the course of the week.  Second, both Mike Dunleavy (sufferring from lack of strength in his legs) and Dahntay Jones (return to mediocrity?)  have been awful.  Look for him to continue to get solid minutes contributing 3’s/steals/blocks with decent boards at his position.  Naturally, be aware he’ll most likely hurt your team’s %’s.

CUT LIST

Tyson Chandler (C – 44%) – If Tyson hadn’t given you a reason to kick him to the WW with his substandard play thusfar this season, his latest stress reaction in his foot probably should.  Considering he struggled with foot problems the past season and he still hasn’t felt 100% after offseason surgery, there is a good chance it’ll linger well into the rest of this season.

Tracy McGrady (SG/SF – 62%) – It should be obvious the Rockets and Tmac are and will not be on the same page for the rest of the season.  The Rockets decided to sit him down for a few games so he left the team to spend time with his family (uh, ok).  Prior to this, he wasn’t seeing even 8 minutes a game.  Time for everyone the end their love affair with him as it’s completely up in the air when his situation will improve whether through a trade or a Rocket’s injury.

WATCH LIST

Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 30%) – Ryan gets the “watch list” treatment because it’s unsure how significant his production will be going forward.  Prior to his really solid stretch just prior to his injury, he was largely an inconsistent mess.  Considering the Wolves won 3 of the 6 games he missed (and Damien Wilkins hasn’t been all that bad), I can’t see Rambis thrusting him into any prominent role.

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 10%) – I know Plonden told you to cut him a week ago, but you’ve at least got to put him back on your radar.  The Pacer’s could very well be considered the worst team in the league at the moment as they’ve lost 6 in a row including two embarrassing losses in their last 2 games.  Consequently, I could see the Pacers start off loading some of their higher salary players, but none more so than Troy Murphy.  No Troy means excellent minutes and production from Tyler (if you can stomach the FG%) – 36 minute per – 17.5 points, 9.6 boards, 1.2 steals with only 1.6 TO’s.

Serge Ibaka (C – 3%) – Allowing a pass in the Thunder’s last game, Serge has been playing admirably well.  In a four game stretch, he’s seen a little over 24 minutes a game and averaged 10.5 points, 8.5 boards, 1.2 blks on 62 FG%.  I expect his role to remain pretty solid as both Nenad Krstic and Nick Collison lack a lot of ability necessary many a night against NBA competition.

C.J. Miles (SG/SF – 4%) – Yeah I know he’s been horrid his last 2 games (2 for 15 FG’s), but don’t give up hope yet.  The Jazz need his production as Wesley Matthews will be more inconsistent going forward while Kyle Korver is still having knee problems.  I expect Miles to be a good source of points, 3’s and steals this week as the Jazz face the Wolves, Thunder and Nuggets.

Earl Watson (PG – 6%) – Another complete failure the last 2 games, Earl should be given a chance for at least this upcoming week (as I mentioned the Pacers are looking at a 4 game week).  Considering TJ Ford has all but been written off by Jim O’Brien, Mr. Watson has a good chance to rebound as the coach relies on a veteran leader to help the Pacers turn about their recent woeful play.  Expect solid 3’s, assists and steals out of him against the Bulls, Grizzlies, Wolves and Knicks.

STAY THE COURSE

Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 50%) – Hitting only 4 out of his past 24 field goals, will make you want to drop Ersan faster than a hot potato, but I ask you to reconsider the notion for 3 reasons.  One, his opportunity won’t be taken away as  the Bucks aren’t going anywhere fast so they’ll stick with their youth.  Two, he’s got Hakim Warrick behind him.  Three, team leaders Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut are as brittle as they come.

Marreesse Speights (PF/C – 34%) – After a 28/9 performance against the Clippers, Marreesse appears to have gone on hiatus (4.5 points, 4 boards the last 2 games).  This might be a nice opportunity for you to jump on him as some owner has lost the faith but you shouldn’t.  Besides his fantastic ability, he is too good of a fit under Eddie Jordan so expect a return to strong numbers in the near future.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Nazr Mohammed (C – 4%) – If Nazr is available, nab him in deep leagues.  While Tyson Chandler is slated to only miss a week, I expect his foot to hold him back much longer.  In the meantime, expect similar production to his last 2 game averages of 14 points, 8.5 boards, 1 steal/board with excellent FG% and TO numbers.

Jeff Pendergraph (SF/PF – 0%) – Until the Blazer’s are able to bring in another big man, Jeff will be relied on to assist Juwan Howard down the low.  Scary, I know but he’s worth a look for some extra points, rebounds and defensive numbers all done in an efficient manner (based on summer league production).

MYSTERY MAN

Delonte West (PG/SG – 20%) – In keeping with last week’s new category, is there anyone more worthy of a mention?  To start the year, it wasn’t even certain when, if at all, he’d be back on the court.  Now that he is racking up more 20+ minute games than DNP’s, the question is will he achieve any consistency to be worth owning in the average fantasy league – especially in the 3 point category (1 made 3 the entire month!!!)?  I say yes.  As he and his teammates continue to acclimate to one another, his role will likely increase.  After all, the Cav’s have won 9 of their last 10 and it can be argued he was their second most valuable player last season.  In addition, it’s no surprise confidence is the last thing he needs to achieve (the motorcycle stunt and his wrist injury).  However, it’s getting there as both the coach and teammates are noticing.

Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

Each year, there is always a group of players that start off hotter than the devil’s underwear.  Amongst them, there are several guys that really do come out of nowhere.  If you’re lucky, you’ve got at least one of them on your roster.  Or, perhaps, you’re being offered one of them by an owner looking to sell high.  Either way, now is a good time to contemplate what you can expect from them in the future. Playing your cards right can go a long way in determining the rest of your season so we’ll hopefully help breakdown 5 of the largest surprises this early NBA season.

* The following rankings are based on Ziguana 9-cat rankings.

1.  Larry Hughes – currently 12th

Who hasn’t owned “Smooth” (yeah that’s his nickname) at one time or another?  In his best year (2004-05), he averaged 22 points (on 43 FG% and 77 FT%), 1 3ptm, 6.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 2.9 steals.  Very nice!  Too bad that season has turned out to be an aberration as he’s failed to come close to duplicating those numbers again.  No matter though as Larry is once again tempting fantasy owners with a line thus far of 14 points (on 50 FG% and 70 FT%), 1.3 3ptm, 4.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.2 steals.  The million dollar question is, can he keep it up?

One thing in Hughes favor though is the pocketbook argument.  It has been published by authors like Kevin Stiroh that NBA players performance do spike in contract years.  Well, at age 31, Larry is playing for the future so he might be putting up a one last hoorah.

However, I’m definitely on the other side of the fence as he’s got several factors working against him.  First, he is a career 41% FG shooter who is known for being as streaky as a Leonid Meteor Shower.  He’ll string along a few nice games, then promptly kick your team’s efficiency in the groin.  Second, his penchant for injury isn’t a secret to anyone – from ankles to shoulders to wrists.  Third, he is playing for the hapless Knicks.  D’Antoni will probably continue to experiment with lineups as to maximize wins and playing time for the youngsters.

Conclusion:  he’s a perfect sell high candidate so don’t wait too long to attempt to move him before he reverts back to ‘expected form.’

2.  Marc Gasol – currently 13th

I’d be willing to wager that “La Tanqueta” was the last picked starting Memphis Grizzly in every fantasy league this year.  Whoops!  He’s made a fool of all of us by putting up averages of 15.2 points (on 61.1 FG% and 74.7 FT%), 11.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.7 blocks.  He’s easily been the better Gasol in the family in the earlygoings, but the important question is will it continue?

From my perspective, I don’t see any reason why he won’t.  First, have you seen him lately?  He lost half a Spaniard – well, not really, but 30 pounds is nothing to scoff at!  It is apparent he is moving MUCH better on the court and that added quickness is translating to a solid increase in most statistical categories.  Second, playing alongside potent names like OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph has taken all the focus away from him; consequently, he’s been free to roam in the paint and clean up on the glass.

Conclusion:  Marc Gasol owner’s should hang onto him unless they receive a very good offer.

3.  Brandon Jennings – currently 21st

“Young money” has started off the season with a bang and simultaneously has many Knick fans headed for the Brooklyn Bridge.  This spectacular lefty has posted averages of 25.3 points (on 47.9 FG% and 77.2 FT%), 2.6 3ptm, 4.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 1.0 steals.  His unexpected goodness has made the Milwaukee region relevant again as fans all over the country are tuning in to see what he’ll do next.  Unless you were on an expedition to the South Pole, I’m sure you heard about his recent 55 point performance.  So amongst all the hoopla, should there be any cause for concern?

Simply put, yes, as his feet have to touch the ground at some point.  Coming into the season, he gave every indication his shot was going to work:  43 games in Euope last year – approximately 38 FG%/22 3PT%,  NBA summer league – 37.9 FG%/42.9 3PT% and in the NBA preseason – 33 FG%/25 3pt%.  Currently, he’s at 47.9 FG%/49.1 3PT% with an eFG% on jumpshots of 55.9%.  I’m sorry, but that’s an unsustainable level.  Steve Nash’s eFG% is currently at 55.2% and last year it was 54.7%.  I refuse to believe he’s anywhere as adept as the 2 time NBA MVP.

Conclusion:  Sell high (in non-keeper leagues).  Although I expect him to still put up solid lines, they won’t be at current levels.  He will cool off and hit quite a few slumps as the law of averages tend to be cruel.  In addition, opposing teams now know who he is so they’ll key on him defensively.

4.  Channing Frye – currently 22nd

Channing should be nicknamed “rollercoaster” – from promising rookie to bench fodder to a fantasy owner’s dream.  This Phoenix Suns starting center is averaging 12.9 points (on 44.4 FG% and 79 FT%), 2.7 3ptm, 5.7 rebounds and close to 1 block/steal per game.  Simply marvelous when you consider he probably wasn’t even drafted in your league, but is he someone you keep for the long haul?

Yes.  While Channing does possess solid NBA talent, it’s the fact that he’ll continue to see big minutes in the Valley of the Suns.  The Frye guy was born to play center when Steve Nash is at the helm as he’s very proficient at shooting the perimeter shot and quicker than 90% of the opposition.  He’ll never wow you with the rebounds nor blocked shots, but if your team is small ball orientated he’ll fit like a glove.

Conclusion:  Jumpshooters are streaky so sell while the going is good; otherwise, hang onto him for what looks like will be a rewarding ride.

5.  Dahntay Jones -  currently 95th

Who says the NBA isn’t one big family?  Dahntay, a cousin of Al Harrington, is enjoying his finest NBA season to date.  He is currently averaging 17.6 points (on 48.2 FG% and 78.1 FT%), 4.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.3 blocks.  Thought he was only a defensive stopper?  Welcome to the club.  However, if one looked closely enough, you’d have discovered he does know how to put the ball in the hoop.  In 10 games in the NBDL 2 years ago, Dahntay averaged 24.4 points with close to 1 steal/block per game and his senior year at Duke 17.7 points.  So can he keep it going?

This prediction isn’t as clear cut as the others as he’s got what seems to be a similar number of pro’s and con’s.  Regarding the pro’s, he plays for the 2nd best team in terms of pace.  Both Larry Bird and Coach O’brien are high on this kid as he’s got a bulldog defensive mentality.  Lastly, he has demonstrated he possesses an aggressive yet pretty efficient offensive approach (6.6 FTA a game).

As far as the con’s, it would seem he’s been playing on borrowed time.  Both Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy have missed most of the games played this season.  Once they’re both back and healthy, it would dictate a few players will get squeezed for minutes in a fair amount of games.

Conclusion:  Sell high if you can, but don’t despair.  The likelihood that Brandon Rush takes his game to another level and Dunleavy/Murphy (and even Danny Granger) remain healthy here on out seem very remote.  There may be a few periods where his production wanes, but don’t fear, he’ll get back on the court one way or another.

Yet another week has passed and there were more changes to the fantasy landscape.  Chris Paul, Travis Outlaw, Josh Howard, Kelenna Azubuike and Marreese Speights went down this week.  Meanwhile, Pau Gasol, Eric Gordon, Courtney Lee and Troy Murphy continued their Mr. Invisible impressions.  At least Antwan Jamison and Rashard Lewis will be sure to return this week.  Also, can’t go without mentioning Brandon Jennings.  He is the reason why NBA League Pass just might be worth it as it’s highly unlikely most of us will even have an opportunity to watch Bucks’ games.

Week Four Schedules

Four Games: ATL, CHA, CLE, DET, HOU, IND, MIA, MIL, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, TOR

Three Games: BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, LAC, LAL, MEM, NJN, NYK, PHI, PHI, SAC, SAS, UTA, WAS

Two Games: MIN

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Will Bynum – He’s got a juicy four game schedule and both  Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton are not expected to play during the road trip.  Although Bynum’s numbers will likely take a hit when Rip gets back, he still might be worth owning as he’ll probably still get around 25 minutes a game and contribute decent scoring stats, assists and steals.

Toney Douglas – Over the last week, Toney has been the Knicks best guard.  It’s not saying much when you check the competition but it is very noteworthy.  D’Antoni’s grey is becoming more noticeable by the day and he’s tired of it.  Currently, he is re-evaluating the entire rotation and it is expected he’ll go with the youth.  I expect Toney to continue to get strong playing time and help fantasy owners in scoring stats, efficiency and steals.

Rudy Fernandez/Martell Webster – Funny how in one week Martell goes from the drop list to the add list.  Thanks Outlaw!  With Travis sidelined for at least 6 weeks, both of these guys will probably be worth owning.  Martell has a golden opportunity to really seize some time as it’s not expected the Blake/Miller/Roy trio to continue starting.  If Webster is able to start knocking his shot down with any regularity, he’ll put up very serviceable numbers across the board.  Rudy on the other hand is a perfect fit for the 6th man so that should continue.  However, his minutes are going to get a bump up so nab him if you really need help with 3’s and steals.

Chris Douglas-Roberts – He licked the swine flu in no time and has already logged 35 minutes in the Nets last game.  Pick him up if he’s available because the Nets are in dire need of his potential contributions.  He’ll be rewarding owners as soon as this coming week in points, efficiency, steals and rebounds.

Thabo Sefolosha – There is no denying it, he has a major role in the Thunder’s rotation because of his defensive abilities.  It’s a great sign that he’s still been getting a ton of time even though his shot has been way off of late (6-25 in the last 4 games).  While he’ll never be a volume shooter, he will help fantasy managers in 3’s, boards and defensive categories.

CUT LIST

DJ Augustin – Seems DJ is going through the motions of a second year player.  There were high hopes entering the season but he’s gotten off to a slow start and it appears Larry Brown won’t help him.  The other night, DJ took a shot off a pick and roll instead of passing to the open player and Coach promptly yanked him.  With Raja Bell attempting to play through his injuries and Flip Murray back, Augustin will be pressed to find consistent minutes.

Chris Duhon – Chris was never meant to be a fantasy relevant player, but that changed the day he put on a Knick uniform.  While he has the ability to put up some nice numbers on occasion, he hasn’t even been close thus far this season.  D’Antoni hasn’t kicked him to the curb yet, but I expect the next game or two to be a nice barometer for the next few months.  If he shows signs of snapping out of it, hang on to him as Coach will undoubtedly stick with him.  If not, send him packing.

Josh Howard - Well that didn’t take long.  Howard is already out indefinitely with rumors claiming he’ll be out until the end of December.  Considering the surgery was back in May and he’s still not right, I don’t suggest standard leagues to stick by this brittle body.

WATCH LIST

Darren Collison – Darren might be a nice plug in option for at least this upcoming week, but I’m not sold on him.  He struggled in his first start against the Hawks and scary as it sounds, Bobby Brown outplayed him.  It’s easy to envision him going from a bad game to average to bad to good to bad again.  Also, after this week, the Hornets will have two straight weeks of just 2 games so I assume there should be a better interim option out there at this time.

JJ Hickson – The Cavaliers moved him into the starting lineup to shake things up a bit after a disappointing start to the year.  Somewhat surprisingly, JJ has come through with flying colors.  In their last game against Utah, he put up 20 points, but more importantly, he received 38 minutes on the floor.  If this continues, then he’ll most likely be worthy of ownership in standard sized leagues.

Marcus Thornton - Last week, I had him in my Deep League Specials section, but this week he gets a bump up.  It’s no secret that the Hornets are struggling especially on the offensive end.  Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, Devin Brown and James Posey have looked awful too many times.  With Jeff Bower responsible for drafting Marcus, I believe he’ll get his share of chances at significant playing time rewarding owners with points, 3’s, FT% and steals.

STAY THE COURSE

Andris Biedrins – Horrid start for sure.  Combine that with a lousy back injury that seemed to be perpetuated by Nellie’s lack of sense, he’s giving fantasy owners absolutely nothing right now.  However, according to Ziguana,  he put up Round 5 value last season.  Considering the Warriors have no other viable center, he’ll jump back into the rotation once he’s deemed healthy.

John Salmons – He couldn’t have gotten off to a worst start – under 32% from the field thus far.  However, don’t make the mistake on either dropping him or selling low as he’s a proven efficient shooter.  Despite his struggles, he’s averaging 38 minutes a game so it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a valuable asset on your team.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Eddy Curry, Jordan Hill – I’ve got a strong feeling one of these two guys will be relevant as soon as this coming week.  David Lee at center seems worse than last year as his opposition is running layup drills around him.  With Darko Milicic apparently not a factor, one can expect D’Antoni to next look to these two guys.  Hill has shown flashes of late that he’s got some game but he still has a number of things to learn (as indicated by his foul rate).  Curry has been a laughing stock for such a long time but the Knicks are desperate.  He’s lost a ton of weight and might be serviceable until his next injury.

CJ Watson – In the world of Nellie, even fodder can turn into gold.  Not surprisingly, Stephen Curry has already landed on the end of the bench so CJ has been able to receive some fantastic minutes the last two games (27 and 34).  Subsequently, he has taken full advantage of it by playing very well and there is a decent chance it’ll continue in the short term.

In competitive fantasy leagues, it’s never too early to start to identify potential sleepers for next season. Even though almost anything can change over the next two months, some players are already emerging as potential studs or breakout candidates for 2009-10.

The recipe for a potential sleeper is never the same. Sometimes it is true progression as a player, other times a trade or injury opens up minutes for a player. It can even be a truly unexplainable phenomenon. Whatever the reason, breakout players are essential to securing the ever-elusive hardware when playing against other knowledgeable managers.

Let’s break the potential sleepers into three groups: the guards, the forwards and the centers. With the guards and the forwards down, only the centers remain.

Brook Lopez — Next to Anthony Randolph, Lopez is this summer’s other worst kept secret. Knowledgeable fantasy managers across the country are excited. And for good reason, too. Lopez and Devin Harris are the Nets’ de facto franchise players, as both have already proven to be extremely talented.

Lopez’s rookie season was outstanding and mirrors another franchise center’s rookie averages to a remarkable degree. Check out rookie season comparisons for Brook Lopez and Yao Ming. In particular, compare the two players’ per-36 minute stats.  It’s interesting that Brook actually had a higher field goal percentage than Yao did as a rook.

In real life, Yao was better than Brook. For evidence of that in his statline, compare Yao’s and Brook’s defensive rating, which is a measure of points allowed per 100 possessions (D-Rating). Check out Yao’s D-Rating of 100 compared to Lopez’s D-Rating of 110. Clearly, Yao as a rookie was a much better defender than Brook was last season.

However in fantasy, who is better in real life doesn’t matter and who is the better defender doesn’t matter either. Stats matter and the numbers say that in terms of fantasy production, the Yao-Lopez comparison is within reason. So what did Yao’s statline look like in his second season? His points per game jumped from 13.5 to 17.5 and his efficiency from the floor jumped as well from solid .498 to very respectable .522 from the center position.

If Lopez’s fantasy numbers follow a similar path as Yao’s, he is bound to be a fantasy sleeper that is sure to fulfill his promise and potential. Just be ready to reach for Brook, as his average draft position in competitive leagues (according to Matt Buser’s August 31, 2009 ADP Report) is 28th overall. And in a keeper leagues, Lopez’s value is exponentially higher.

Emeka Okafor — As it’s been chronicled at BFFA in the past, Okafor should consider himself one of the luckiest men alive. He is going to be playing alongside the league’s most talented and exciting point guard, Chris Paul. As far as the current group of active point guards is concerned, the debate is about who is second, not first. CP3 is just that good.

It is widely speculated that Okafor’s numbers will improve playing alongside Paul but what kind of fantasy production can we realistically expect from Okafor next season?

Take a look at Okafor’s career statistics, with the idea of using these numbers as a sort of pre-Paul benchmark. In five season in the NBA, Okafor has averaged 14.0 points on .505/.596 percent shooting, 10.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. For what it’s worth, his career assist-to-turnover ratio is 0.499. Ouch.

His career numbers mask a trend with his field goal percentage, which is a trend towards a higher field goal percentage as his time in the league has progressed. Last season, Okafor’s field goal percentage was .561. Also, it should be noted that Okafor played in all 82 games in both of the last two seasons after avergaging 55 games per season in his first three years in the League.

So playing next to Paul, you’d expect Okafor to get better looks around the rim. No disrespect to Raymond Felton, but Paul is in another universe when it comes to getting his teammates higher percentage attempts. With that in mind, Okafor should progress close to the 60 percent mark for field goal percentage while boosting his scoring averages to career highs.

Being taken in the early sixth round so far this season based upon speculation of a fantasy production boost, Okafor could end up providing valuable dividends on the right teams. On any head-to-head teams that is punting free throw percentage, Emeka should provide very nice production and could easily outproduce his draft position. Or, for teams that can take on a poor free throw shooter, Okafor could be an excellent second center to anchor field goal percentage, rebounds and blocks.

Spencer Hawes — Flashy is probably not a word that will ever be used to describe Hawes’ fantasy or real-life game. Not gonna happen. Steady, maybe one day. Functional, hey why not?

His per-36 minutes from last season were 14.0 points on .466/.662 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 8.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.5 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Again, nothing flashy but very solid and respectable from a second or third center. What is really nice is to see that Hawes is increasing his three pointers per game.

With that in mind, check out this comparison of second year averages. A Mehmet Okur comparison should be a good thing for any young, big man in the Association. Okur was a much better shooter from the charity stripe, but their overall lines are relatively similar. Not a bad possible career trajectory for Mr. Hawes.

Another thing to consider in this situation is the team makeup and outlook for next season. There isn’t any point in sugar-coating it; the Kings were dreadful last season and will almost certainly be dreadful next season as well. But the good news is that Hawes has little competition for minutes at the center position and should put up steady contributions across the board.

Joakim Noah — Last season’s playoffs can be thought of as a watershed for a few players and teams in the League. The Dwight Howard-led Orlando Magic and the Chicago Bulls are some example of teams that made huge steps during the postseason.

How about Joakim Noah? Noah is an interesting case study because his watershed moment can be pinpointed to a specific play.

With that, Noah put everyone, pundits and players alike, on notice.

Noah’s second year averages were decent, but his post-All-Star Game splits showed vast improvement based largely upon bigger minutes. With his outstanding play in the postseason for the Bulls, expect a bigger role next season as a reward.

Next season, Noah could be in store for a similar line to his per-36 minute averages from last season. He averaged 10.0 points on .556/.676 percent shooting, 11.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. A double-double average with two blocks and a steal is very nice from such a young player. For leagues that count offensive rebounds, Noah is even more valuable (averaged a whopping 4.5 offensive boards per-36 minutes last season). Bonus!

Noah is a nice third center option and provides the lunch-pail stats that all fantasy teams rely on. With an average draft position of 105th, Joakim can be obtained late in the draft and is a nice bet to outproduce his draft position.

Roy Hibbert — Looking for a big man to burn a late round flier on? Look no further than Georgetown standout (average draft position of 144th overall), Roy Hibbert. Hibbert plays in one of the league’s most fantasy friendly systems (third in pace) under Coach Jim O’Brien.

Playing for a Pacers team that lost Rasho Nesterovic to Toronto, there is suddenly an opportunity for increased minutes next season. Nesterovic’s departure freed up 17.3 minutes per game at the center position. If you assume that most of those minutes will be funneled to Hibbert (14.4 minutes per game last season), suddenly Roy is looking at nearly 30 minutes per night. With minutes comes fantasy production.

What can we expect from Hibbert in 30 minutes of action per night?

Looking at his per-36 minute stats from his rookie season, the promise is easy to see. He averaged 17.6 points on .471/.667 percent shooting, 8.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.7 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. That’s over 17 points per game, almost nine rebounds and almost three blocks per game. That is big time fantasy potential right there.

If you factor in the possibility of a Troy Murphy injury, and Hibbert starts to look like a very nice sleeper next season. Speaking of a possible Murphy injury, Roy Hibbert and Troy Murphy make a great pair of players to handcuff next season in the right formats.

With some of the early (and obvious) sleepers exposed, next are the deep sleepers for extremely competitive leagues or deeper formats.

Picked fourteenth overall in 2008, Golden State forward Anthony Randolph could end up being one of the steals of a very talented draft class. At the end of last season, Randolph gave us flashes of his potential fantasy production. For those fantasy managers lucky enough to snag him off the waivers (and to still be competing for a championship trophy), Randolph provided nice rewards. However, the biggest knock against Randolph in his rookie season was his work ethic and drive to improve.

What a difference a few weeks can make. Being a civilian during the playoffs has not sat well with the rookie and he did the only thing he could to try and make sure it doesn’t happen again next season. He got back to work.

Randolph started doing cardio work and practicing his shooting while in Dallas with a goal of improving his midrange jumper. He’s been in Oakland for about three weeks now, practically living at the Warriors facility. He works out three times a day — morning, afternoon and evening — part of which he does solo.

In addition to his jumper, Randolph is working to get stronger, develop his footwork and improve his efficiency.

He often works out with his shirt off now, showing off his defined torso. The Warriors have focused on developing his core strength and not bulking him up. Still, Randolph, who has grown an inch and is just shy of 7 feet, has added some 20 pounds of muscle since the Warriors drafted him and is now up to about 215. He can curl 100-pound dumbbells several times, no problem.

Randolph said he already sees improvement in his jumper. Smart said Randolph also is making progress with his fundamentals and the cerebral elements of the game. He’s been working the last couple of weeks on getting to the basket in one dribble.

“I’m learning when and where to do things,” Randolph said, “and how to put the ball on the floor as little as possible to get where I need to go.”

Fellow rookie Anthony Morrow came to Oakland about a week after Randolph, and the two have been regulars at the Warriors practice facility since. Randolph said the presence of Morrow has been a boost, allowing him to practice some of the things he’s worked on in heated one-on-one battles.

Even Morrow, known for being a maniacal worker, is impressed with Randolph’s grind.

Source: Contra Costa Times

If Anthony can stay on the grind for the whole offseason, he can greatly increase his chances of securing a spot in Coach Don Nelson’s notoriously fickle lineup next season. If successful, the results can be immensely rewarding (see, for example,  Stephen Jackson). And according to the above story, Randolph is well on his way to breaking into Coach Nelson’s inner circle and achieving fantasy fame.

Let’s say Anthony hucks and shucks all summer and improves significantly across the board (which would lead to an increase in his minutes as well), what kind of production can we expect?

In trying to predict future production, it is always a good idea to look at past production as a guide. With Randolph, that is a simple task due to his short track record in the NBA. If Randolph got starters minutes, he would definitely be playing over thirty minutes per game. So his per-36 minute statistics from last season are a decent benchmark.

Scaling his production to a 36 minutes of playing time, Randolph averaged a very respectable 15.9 points on 46.2/71.6 percent shooting, 11.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.3 steals, 2.4 blocks, and 2.6 turnovers. That’s his rookie season (19 years old). If you take this stat line and account for modest improvements across the board, Randolph starts to make a compelling case for meriting a late-round draft pick.

Keep a close watch on the Randolph situation. He could end up being one of next season’s top sleeper candidates (think Troy Murphy last season).