Basketball Free For All

Sorry for the delay guys, but there was a football game yesterday and it happened to include my favorite team – the New Orleans Saints.  With their monumental win, there had to be an equally impressive celebration on my part.  Laissez le bon temps rouler!

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After week twelve, we’ve officially reached the half-way point of the regular season, which means it is mid-season adjustment time. Now is a perfect time to evaluate your team’s cumulative performance and assess your strengths and weaknesses. For head-to-head leagues, check your punting strategy and consider whether it makes sense to adjust your strategy going forward. For roto leagues, now might be time to consider big trades to shore up any weaknesses. Any team can be improved with the right moves; just don’t make the classic mistake of making a move for the sake of, well, making a move.

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The San Antonio Spurs are struggling this season. For a franchise that has been synonymous with winning over the past decade, the Spurs are having a disappointing season despite being 17-11 (.607 W-L%) and very much in the playoff mix. Their 33 year old franchise player, Tim Duncan, is still putting up numbers consistent with his career averages while also posting a career high in free throw percentage. However, being a middle of the pack playoff team is not a successful season for a team that has won four out of the last eleven championships.

Throughout these four championship seasons, there have been two constants: the aforementioned once-in-a-decade franchise player, Tim Duncan, and the second best active head coach in the NBA, Gregg Popovich. It is impossible to talk about either one of these two mythical figures in isolation, as their careers are so intertwined with Pop’s first full season as head coach of the Spurs being Duncan’s rookie season. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Pop and Duncan retire at the same time (2011 at the earliest, although 2012 is more realistic).

Each of the Spurs’ four championships was predicated on their defensive prowess, as orchestrated by Pop and anchored by Duncan. Everything else is built around supporting stars (Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili now; Sean Elliott and David Robinson earlier) and role players (Antonio McDyess and Roger Mason now; Bruce Bowen and Robert Horry earlier). The Spurs’ genius lies in blending the franchise player, supporting stars and role players together into a defensive juggernaut and an above-average offensive team.

Take a look at the following table, which looks at all of the Duncan-led Spurs. It compares the Spurs’ offense (O-Rating, or points scored per 100 possessions), defense (D-Rating, or points allowed per 100 possessions) and the Differential between the two (O-Rating minus D-Rating equals Differential; the higher the positive number the better). The table also lists the average O-Rating/D-Rating for each season, as it varies from year to year, and the individual rankings for each O-Rating and D-Rating.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

* Championship season
~ Lockout-shortened season

Perusing the chart, the defensive numbers jump off the page. They were a top five defensive team in every season leading up to this year with Duncan. This season, the Spurs have dropped to 14th overall, which is the first time a Duncan era Spurs team has been an average defensive team instead of an elite defensive team. On the offensive side of things, the Spurs have been an average offensive team only finishing in the top five once (it will be twice if the Spurs continue to play at this exact level all season).

The Spurs’ philosophy has always been that an average offense is fine as long as the defense is elite, which leads to a high differential. Notice that if you sort the chart descending according to differential three of the Spurs’ four championships cluster near the top? It is most certainly not a coincidence.

Now take a look at the Spurs’ current season, which can be referred to as their Bizarro Season. This season, the formula for the Spurs has been flipped on it’s head, with the Spurs being a top five offensive team and average defensive team. Notice that the Spurs still have a decent positive differential but remember that the fundamental formula for this Spurs team has changed somewhat radically from all previous Duncan-led Spurs.

What is responsible for this flipping of the proverbial script?

Let’s look at the personnel turnover from last season to this season to see which players were holdovers, which players were subtracted and which players were added.

Holdovers: Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Roger Mason, Matt Bonner, George Hill, Michael Finley

In this group, we have our franchise player, supporting stars and four of the Spurs’ key role players from last season. Hill has solidified his role as backup point guard and efficient scorer off the bench. Mason has stepped in as the third string point guard and has also filled the void left by Big Shot Rob. Finley’s role this season has been drastically reduced (18.3 minutes per game), although he can fill in at either the two or three if injuries should require it. Bonner plays the role of the stretch four, spotting up for threes in the corners and looking to clean the glass.

Subtracted: Kurt Thomas, Ime Udoka, Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, Drew Gooden, Jacque Vaughn

This group is all role players, almost all of which are above average to excellent defenders, either on the perimeter or in the post. Thomas is the consummate professional who plays extremely smart post defense and is an excellent role model for younger bigs. Oberto is like a watered down version of Thomas; together they represent a large exodus of post defense and veteran savvy. Gooden was more of an offensive-focused big man than Kurt or Fabricio but is still an average defender as well. Bowen is the quintessential Spurs perimeter defender, although it was clear he had lost a step last season. Udoka was also a solid defender and was relatively versatile, as he was able to guard the perimeter or the post. Finally, Vaughn was a decent defender at the point and was a solid fill-in to spell Parker off the bench. In all, the Spurs lost a ton of defensive minded role players.

Added: Richard Jefferson, DeJuan Blair, Antonio McDyess, Keith Bogans, Theo Ratliff

The Spurs gained one borderline supporting star/role player and four other role players to try and fill the void left by the outgoing players. R-Jeff has the physical skill-set to be a lock-down defender, although he has traditionally made his name through his offense. Blair is a promising rookie, who will be a destructive force on the glass for his career. However, he is still young and plays for Popovich, who is hesitant to play rookies big minutes. Bogans has started for the Spurs and is being groomed to take over for Bowen, locking his man down on defense and spotting up for the corner three and making opposing defenses pay for doubling off of him. Ratliff and McDyess were brought in on minimum contracts to man the paint and bring the veteran savvy that Kurt and Fabricio Oberto provided.

Let’s run down the list one more time to look for changes. Same coach (Pop). Same franchise player (Duncan). Same supporting stars (Parker and Manu). No difference here. But when you examine role players, here is where big changes start to become apparent. They have replaced departed perimeter defenders (Udoka, Bowen) with fresh perimeter defenders (Jefferson, Bogans). They have replaced post defenders (Thomas, Oberto, Gooden) with fresh post defenders (McDyess, Ratliff, Blair).

However, just swapping these players out has not been as seamless as a transition as the Spurs front office and other observers probably expected. Something was lost in translation and the Spurs’ defense has stumbled out of the gates. Recently, Coach Popovich summed up what was lost very nicely.

Still, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich remains bullish on the team’s offseason investments. He continues to urge patience with his newcomers as they adjust to their new team, and their new team adjusts to them.

“What I’m learning is we lost more corporate knowledge than I thought,” said Popovich, whose team is 13-10 after a 2-1 Western road trip. “It’s taken a little bit more time than I thought to get everybody on the same page.”

Source: San Antonio Express-News

The corporate knowledge that Pop is talking about above is what was lost. The replacement players are all capable individual defenders but have no experience playing in the Spurs defensive system. Spurs defense is position defense that demands crisp defensive rotations that can only be effective when executed as a unit. If any of the five men on the floor are out of sync then the entire defense crumbles and opposing teams can take advantage of weaknesses. The study of this season’s Spurs illustrates not only the importance of role players but also the importance of having continuity with your role players from season-to-season.

As a die-hard Suns fan, I’ve learned one lesson over the years when dealing with the San Antonio Spurs: never under any circumstances underestimate them or count them out. As history has shown, Popovich is a brilliant coach and is one man that is capable of rising to the challenge of getting his team to play to the best of their abilities, especially on the defensive end of the floor. If Pop and Duncan can get their team firing on all cylinders in time for the Playoffs, San Antonio is going to be a very difficult matchup for anyone in the Western Conference.

As expected, week one was full of surprises and story lines with some of the League’s young players making serious noise. Denver’s Carmelo Anthony is off to an head start in the battle to secure this season’s scoring title, averaging 35.5 points in his first two games. New York’s Danilo Gallinari is proving why he deserved to be a lottery pick (and sleeper) draining a whopping five treys per in his first two games. Milwaukee’s Brandon Jennings put everyone on notice with his near triple double NBA debut (17 points, 9 rebounds, 9 assists).

With one exciting week down and many more to go, it’s never too soon to start planning for next week.

Week Two Schedules

Four Games: ATL, BOS, DEN, DET, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, NOR, NYK, ORL, PHO, SAC, UTA, WAS

Three Games: CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, OKC, PHI, POR, TOR

Two Games: SAS

Cut List

Antonio McDyess — It looks like it is going to take a front court injury to make Dice fantasy relevant this season. Feel free to cut bait on Antonio for a hot hand. Decision that much easier with the Spurs the only team playing two games next week (against Utah and Portland on the road; both teams play much better at home).

Peja Stojakovic — Apparently people drafted Peja this season and are still holding on to him (60 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues). Look for cheap threes elsewhere.

Corey Maggette — Maggette is still owned in the majority of Yahoo! leagues, despite his terrible start. While still providing help in free throw percentage, Corey has been a drag on field goal percentage due to his relentless chucking. In case you need any more convincing, Maggette still plays for fantasy basketball’s most frustrating coach, Don Nelson.

Watch List / Add List

* Note: Percentages in parentheses denote ownership rates in Yahoo! leagues.

Larry Hughes (38%) — While certainly not known for his shot selection (well, actually he is, for all the wrong reasons), Hughes is certainly a scorer. Hughes 2009-10 debut against the Sixers was a nice showing, dropping 18 points on .636/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, 1 block and 4 turnovers. Still not convinced? Hughes is in a contract year this season (see 2004-05 season).

Kelenna Azubuike (37%) — Azubuike has quietly put together the same line that put him in the top-100 last season, giving him a Basketball Monster rank of 65th in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 71st in per game value. Kelenna will get you scoring on good percentages and will have a few big games this season. He also gets you solid defensive production from a guard-eligible player, which is always a plus.

Marreese Speights (30%) — If any of the bigs in Philly have benefited from Eddie Jordan’s much-heralded Princeton offense, it appears to be Speights (BBM: 38th; Ziguana 41st). Averaging a 16.7 points on a scorching .750/.824 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 7.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers per game. Obviously his field goal percentage will come back to earth but his offensive aggresiveness is paying dividends for owners. Pick him up while he’s hot.

Anthony Parker (30%) — With Delonte West making his triumphant return to the Cavs’ rotation, Parker’s top-100 fantasy value now faces stiffer competition. Definitely a situation to monitor and both players could end up canceling each others’ value out in the long in the dreaded time-share situation.

Ty Lawson (25%) — Think any teams are regretting passing on Lawson yet? If not, they will be. Outside of deep leagues and keeper/dynasty formats, Lawson is another guy to keep on your radar. If veteran point guard Chauncey Billups misses any time, run to the waiver wire and pickup Ty.

Hakim Warrick (24%) –Warrick will most likely carve out a decent amount of minutes in the Bucks’ front court rotation. Whether starting or providing a spark off the bench, Warrick should provide end of the bench fantasy value. Worth a speculative add if you have dead weight on your roster.

Terrence Williams (19%) — Another guy to pickup for speculative purposes is Terrence Williams. Playing for the woeful New Jersey Nets, he is slated to get plenty of burn as the Nets look to maximize their ping-pong balls next summer.

Chris Douglas-Roberts (11%) — Similar to Williams, CDR is also due for some big burn this season and has a chance to muscle his way into the top-100 (currently ranked 115th in per game value according to BBM and 111th according to Ziguana). With Devin Harris out for a few games with a minor injury (surprise, surprise), CDR should get a slight boost of minutes in the short term.

Stay the Course

D.J. Augustin — Augustin’s season has been a bit of a roller coaster already. He (and the Bobcats in general) laid an egg in Boston for their season opener. He followed up with a nice scoring outing against the New York Knicks, which should be taken with a hearty dose of salt. With that being said, it is a little too early to discard D.J. to the trash heap just yet. Give him another week before making any rash decisions.

Chris Andersen — The Birdman has disappointed fantasy managers so far this season. He was drafted as a one category contributer and has provided below average returns on managers; investment (0.5 blocks per game versus 2.5 last season). The blocks will return, as Andersen’s role is to be a game changing defender in the paint for the Nuggets.

Injury Adds

Rafer Alston — As alluded to earlier, Harris is out for an unknown amount of time with a ticky-tack injury. Nothing new here. In his absence, Alston stepped up dropping 20 points on .727/.500 percent shooting, 3 threes, 2 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 steal, o blocks and 4 turnovers against the Wizards on Halloween. Skip to My Lou is a nice short term add for scoring, assists and threes while Harris nurses his wounds.

Buy Low

John Salmons — At this point in the season, there are probably a decent amount of fantasy managers that are nervous with Salmons’ performance. His .172 field goal percentage is probably at the top of their list of worries. However, keep in mind that Salmons is still getting adjusted to being the Man with Ben Gordon now playing in Detroit. It is important to note that the Bulls only two games so far this season have come against Boston and San Antonio, two of the league’s best defensive teams out there. Time to send out lowball offers to Salmons owners before he drops his signature lines.

Sell High

Tim Duncan — It is completely conceivable that Duncan has already had his best game of the season against the Chicago Bulls (28 points on .684/.500 percent shooting, 16 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks and 2 turnovers). The Chicago game should be considered an aberration with his other two performances more likely the norm. As the Spurs clinch a playoff spot, Duncan’s minutes will only decrease and surprise DNP’s will make him harder and harder to move. Sell him now based on his monster second game if you can find a decent deal.

There’s no denying that the San Antonio Spurs have been one of the most successful franchises in the last decade, compiling four championships in a span of ten years. The only other team to do that recently accomplished the feat this past season and featured some guy named Kobe.

But when talking fantasy, the Spurs are no juggernaut. Let’s face it –- if you’re drafting a fantasy team this year and you take a Spur, chances are his last name is Duncan, Parker or Ginobili.

However, that may all change next season due to several moves the Spurs have made that have put the words fantasy relevant back into the same sentence as San Antonio Spurs. One newly acquired Spur in particular has a good chance to exceed his current average draft position. What may surprise you though, is that this Spur isn’t named Richard Jefferson.

Try Antonio McDyess.

The Spurs have always had a player or two outside of the Big Three that dabbles with fantasy relevance each season. For example, Matt Bonner (no, that was not a typo) or Roger Mason both had fantasy value through several stretches last year. This year, it’s McDyess that stands to gain fantasy relevance by a simple formula — less is more.

Last season as a starter in 30 games with the Detroit Pistons, McDyess averaged 12.1 points on .514/.775 percent shooting, 11.0 boards, 1.6 assists, 0.6 assists, 1.2 blocks and 0.9 turnovers per game. But he did so playing close to 35 minutes a game. Sports writers, fantasy gurus and managers alike were all waiting to see the eventual break down of Antonio McDyess.

Fortunately for McDyess (and Spurs fans), the break down never came –- at least, not physically. It was more like he just ran out of gas. By the time the Pistons reached their first round playoff matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers, McDyess was unable to reach the level of play he did during the month of March, when he had a string of ten double digit scoring games in a row.

Unfortunately for the Pistons, he also played the most minutes of his season during that same stretch — four games of 41 minutes plus, including a marathon 51 minute effort against the Houston Rockets. And the Pistons lost, by the way.

Ouch.

Once the playoffs started, the Cavs easily clamped down on McDyess, allowing him only 26 points total through the first three games. To put things into perspective, McDyess scored 26 points in the Pistons’ game four loss alone. With that loss to the Cavaliers, the 2008-09 Pistons were swept into the history books.

Hey Antonio: want a take-back on the decision to negotiate a buyout with Denver to return to Detroit?

However, Dyess’s situation in San Antonio is better than it could be anywhere else. As a Spur, he could start at either the four or the five alongside Duncan. Theo Ratliff and Matt Bonner aren’t fantastic coming off the bench, but they can provide enough of that ever so important rest for a savvy vet like McDyess.

And with Gregg Popovich being the one head coach notorious for setting his rotations in stone (well, more or less), McDyess could see a steady run of 25-27 minute games, easily a work-load he could handle at this stage in his career.

And with those minutes, expect quality stats, especially in rebounding, blocks and field goal percentage. A line of 8.8 points and 8.2 rebounds on over fifty percent shooting from the field and low turnovers would be a safe bet with 26 minutes per game. Because the Big Three carry the primary offensive load, Mcdyess would be allowed to simply focus on boards and defense –- so it’s very possible his 1.2 blocks remain steady and his field goal percentage rises as a result of getting easy looks and put-backs.

If everything breaks just right, you’re looking at a very nice late round flier in standard leagues, or a solid late round value pick in deeper ones. Currently, McDyess’s Buser Sports average draft position is 147 and his Yahoo! O-rank is 150. This puts his preseason value at around the 13th round in a standard 12-team league.

But (there is always a “but” somewhere, right?), keep an eye on McDyess during training camp and the preseason. The Spurs have some youth in their ranks that they are very high about including DeJuan “I don’t need no stinking ACL’s!” Blair and Ian Mahinmi.

All joking aside, Mahinmi has shown flashes of athleticism, which the Spurs seriously lack in their front court. As a rookie, Blair has enough motivation after being snubbed in the first round of the 2009 NBA Draft to last a lifetime. Let’s just hope his medical miracles of knees can last as long as his will.

Coach Pop and the Spurs have made it no secret that they intend to play these two young big men next season. What will be of concern is whether they cut into those quality minutes McDyess was acquired to play. Training camp and the preseason should give us a better idea, although one must be careful not to read to deeply into preseason games.

But if all indications are correct and McDyess starts alongside Duncan and his minutes per game hit that magic number of 26 or more, it’s very possible ‘Dyess meets or exceeds expectations if drafted after the twelfth round.

Picking up Antonio McDyess in the later rounds of your draft could yield solid dividends from your third or fourth power forward or center, especially if you’re looking for a player to give you quality stats in limited minutes. He may not give you top 100 returns, but by the time the season starts, his average draft position could continue to plummet, making Antonio McDyess a true Sleeper in Seattle San Antonio.

Step aside Lebron James, the real king of the NBA is Tim Duncan. The fact of the matter is that no other active NBA player has had a bigger impact on the game than the Big Fundamental. The only other candidates even in consideration would  be former teammates Kobe Bryant or Shaquille O’Neal.

Take a look at the San Antonio Spurs’ record during the Duncan era. Granted, TD has had a solid supporting cast of role players and complimentary stars but the consistent success at a high level is remarkable. The other major factor at work during the Tim Duncan era is the outstanding coaching from Gregg Popovich.

Among active coaches, the only other coach who parallels Pops’ level of coaching is the Zen Master himself, Phil Jackson. Popvich’s biggest strength as a coach is his ability to maximize the production and effectiveness of his role players to support his franchise player and complimentary stars.

What really stands out is the high level of winning, consistent across Duncan’s career. The winning percentages by season range from 0.646 to 0.768. From a cumulative perspective, Duncan’s Spurs have won .703 of their games. Considering the fact that these are statistics spanning twelve seasons, it is really a remarkable feat.

Winning .703 percent of games is really good for any franchise in any given season (that translates to an average of 57.6 wins per season). Doing it consistently for over a decade is what makes it truly a remarkable feat. Not to mention the four rings they collected along with the winning seasons.

The credit really goes to both Duncan and Popovich, as their rise to mythical status will be perennially intertwined (Co-Kings?). In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Popovich retired when Duncan decides to throw in the towel. Pop has always had a maverick streak in him.

The numbers don’t lie. And the numbers say that the real kings of the NBA are located in San Antonio.

People are naturally more comfortable with the familiar. Whether it be taking the same route to work every morning or watching your favorite movie fifty times, people like things to be predictable. I would have to guess that NBA players have the same comfort levels that we possessors of average athletic ability hold as well. They are not super heroes or somehow above the rest of us (although sometimes the media and the public’s perception points to this).

So why does it seem like there is such a lack of true loyalty among NBA players to one’s franchise, fans and city?

There used to be true loyalty among players in the league years ago. Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul Jabaar, Tim Duncan and Larry Bird all won multiple championships with one team. They stayed around through free agency and rebuilding periods and they got it done for their respective teams time and time again. Today it seems that there isn’t quite the same sense of devotion.

Players are too quick to bolt for a rival team if the pasture is greener on the other side (greener more often than not means more money). Think about all of the time, resources and effort a team has to put into a player that it views as the future of the franchise. The team is completely invested in the player from the scouting period, to the point when they sign their contract. Teams want that player to feel comfortable and at home in their city. They should feel important and desired and that is why NBA teams pull out all the stops when it comes to courting and retaining a franchise player.

Too often today teams and their loyal fans are being spurned by the same athletes they once cheered for. Take Hedo Turkoglu for example. After leading his Orlando Magic all the way to the franchise’s best season and a trip to the Finals, what does Hedo do in the off season? He leaves his championship caliber team and signs a deal (tentative) with the Toronto Raptors.

Why leave a team that obviously wants him and one that is in much better position to contend for a title than Toronto? It has to be money. The almighty dollar, especially in today’s economy, seems to have more pull than ever.

Ben Gordon has spent his entire career with the Chicago Bulls. After reportedly rejecting a 5 year $50 million deal from Chicago last season, he signed with the Pistons for 5 years and $55 million. Why not stay with the team that drafted you and allowed you to showcase your unique skill set instead of acting like a mercenary and leaving for which ever squad can pay you only a few million more?  I do realize it is disgusting and totally ridiculous to say “only a few million more,” but for an NBA player and their tax bracket it is only a drop in the bucket.

Trevor Ariza, after winning it all with the Lakers this year, bolts for Houston. Ron Artest took the Rockets farther in the playoffs than they had been in years. After Yao Ming went down, the Rockets were in need of someone to step in and take control of the young cast of talented role players they had assembled. Why not offer to make Artest one of your franchise cornerstones? Well you can’t if he signs with the Lakers, which turned out to be the case.

Dwayne Wade has been in the news recently talking about his future in Miami, or potential lack thereof. Wade basically stated that he would like to hold off on signing a multi-year extension with the Heat until he knows that they are working to put themselves in position to win a championship. Wade wants to make sure he is playing for a team that can contend for a title every year and is not just content to make the playoffs as a fifth seed.

I completely get this. Wade is entering the prime of his career, he can completely dominate a game and he wants to make sure his skills aren’t wasted on an average team. This guy is a winner and I respect his stance, but I am hoping he stays in Miami and wins another ring or two. It would be nice to see that level of commitment to a team that he once led to a championship and now has the opportunity to build a dynasty with. That is assuming the Heat do their part and bring in some talent.

With a number of the league’s brightest stars (Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar’e Stoudemire, for example) potentially going into free agency next season where will their loyalties fall? Will it be with their currnet team or will they follow the dollar to another city and fan base? I can only hope to see some of these players stay with the current teams and build a legacy in the tradition of some of the games biggest stars of years past.