Basketball Free For All

It’s the final countdown!  Before I get into this week’s list, I’ve got to keep harping over these guys whose ownership is just over 40%:  Carlos Delfino, George Hill, Taj Gibson and Drew Gooden.  Hill looks to be primed to finish the year like a beast thanks to Tony Parker’s broken hand.  Gibson has excellent prospects as well as Joakim Noah isn’t even close to being a force in the paint anytime soon.  Lastly, Gooden and Delfino seem they’ll be able to continue their multi-cat ways.

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Players earn their fantasy value in different ways. Some players provide well-rounded stat lines that are more or less without weakness. Other players’ fantasy value is derived from strengths in a few categories or even just one category. The flip side is that some players can hurt a fantasy team with large negative values in one or more categories. These large negative values often occur in the efficiency categories (shooting percentages and turnovers).

Over the past few years, no other player has embodied the spirit of the Cat Carrier and the Cat Killer than Orlando’s own superhero, Dwight Howard. D12 is a Cat Carrier for three categories; rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage. At the same time, Howard is also a Cat Killer in two categories; free throw percentage and turnovers.

When constructing a winning Roto or Head-to-Head team, it is important to build a cohesive team while finding value throughout the draft. In H2H it is much easier to overcome weaknesses than it is in a Roto league, thus allowing for managers to take on Cat Killers without completely destroying their team’s chance of success. In Roto leagues, the Cat Killers are much harder to handle.

But in determining which Cat Carriers to draft or which Cat Killers to avoid, it is important to have a method of comparing Carriers or Killers in different categories to each other. Enter player valuation systems such as Basketball Monster or Ziguana.

Player valuation systems commonly rely on Z-Scores to allow us to compare apples (counting statistics, such as blocks) to oranges (efficiency statistics, such as field goal percentage). Since all counting statistics are on different scales, they also allow us to compare one type of apple (rebounds) to another type of apple (threes). Z-Scores do this generally by using standard deviations to rank all players against the average of a particular category. These individual Z-Scores are aggregated to assign an overall value for each player.

In trying to predict future fantasy production, past production is one of the biggest factors that comes in to play. As with most statistics, the more data you have the more reliable your conclusions. Thus, by using multiple years of data, you can better control for suspensions, injuries, down seasons and other outliers.

What follows is a list of the largest Cat Carriers and Cat Killers based on cumulative values over the past three seasons based on Basketball Monster’s Player Rankings in the nine standard categories. To eliminate any fringe players, a minimum of fifty games played was enacted. I relied on BBM’s valuations over Ziguana’s because BBM has a simple filter to limit the data to the past three seasons. Three seasons of data was used to help control for anomalies while also allowing some of the younger players to make the list.

And now, the rankings.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Over the course of the last three seasons, the single largest positive contributor to any one category has been Marcus Camby in blocks (averaged 3.1 blocks over the past three seasons). The next three top dogs were a trio of elite point guards in Steve Nash (10.8 assists), Chris Paul (10.2 assists) and Deron Williams (10.1 assists). Rounding out the top five is Amare Stoudemire with his highly efficient scoring from the field (.572 percent shooting on 14.1 attempts per game) due in part to Nash’s aforementioned dimes.

In simply perusing the top five players on this list, it becomes apparent why punting assists is so popular in H2H leagues. If you miss a top shelf point guard in the draft, you will have trouble competing against the managers that get one of the assist Cat Carriers. If you broaden the scope to the top ten players, Jason Kidd makes an appearance at seventh overall for assists as well (9.3 assists).

If you re-sort the data to put the values in ascending order, Dwight Howard takes the top spot, also know as the best of the worst. Howard’s free throw percentage (.590 percent on 9.9 attempts per game) is the single biggest category contributor in fantasy basketball over the past three seasons, period. Unfortunately for Howard and his Roto owners, this contribution is negative. In a close second is Shaquille O’Neal’s free throw percentage impact (.524 percent shooting on 6.5 attempts per game).

To reiterate, these two values are by far the biggest single category contributions in fantasy basketball, whether positive or negative. Either of these two negative free throw percentage contributions dwarfs Camby’s positive value in blocks in comparison. For rookie managers, the lesson should now be crystal clear. When dealing with percentages, attempts matter. A lot. That is why Andris Biedrins‘ free throw percentage (.565 percent shooting on only 2.6 attempts per game) is not nearly as damaging as Howard’s or Shaq’s. It still hurts a team, but is much more managebale than Howard’s.

Another lesson that managers of all experience levels can learn from examining Cat Carriers and Cat Killers is that Cat Carriers that are not also Cat Killers are always in high demand. These players are much easier to move than Cat Carriers that are also Cat Killers. For Roto leagues, and to a lesser degree H2H teams, Cat Killers are difficult to incorporate into a team after the draft because teams need to have a specific means of moderating the impact of a Cat Killer. Thus, targeting Cat Carriers can give you lots of trade value because these players can almost singlehandedly make a team competitive in a certain category. Oftentimes, managers are looking to trade for players that help deficiencies and not players that provide solid across the board value.

By looking at these values and comparing them against each other, it is apparent why winning a Roto league with Dwight Howard is such a difficult task that few have accomplished in competitive fantasy leagues. Moreso than any other player in the league, Howard was built for H2H play and should only be drafted in Roto leagues by managers who have a clear-cut plan in place of reducing the harm caused by Superman’s free throw shooting and the chutzpah to take the plunge.

At this point, everyone in the know knows Brook Lopez and the unique set of skills he brings to both his team, the New Jersey Nets, and the lucky fantasy owners who draft him. There is also another less-known member of the Lopez family who may also be relevant this coming season. Robin Lopez is his name and until recently, sitting on the bench has been his game.

RoLo became a member of the Association last season after being selected 15th overall by the Phoenix Suns. He spent most of the 2008-09 season buried deep on the Suns’ bench. His PT was an innocent bystander caught in the crossfire of the Shaquille O’Neal experiment in Phoenix. Plus, the fact that he couldn’t stay on the floor without fouling (5.7 fouls per 36-minutes) didn’t help his cause either.

Now that the Shaqtus is in Cleveland and Terry Porter is well, wherever he currently is, Lopez finds himself in position to at least earn some decent minutes this season (at least improve upon the meager 10.2 minutes per game he averaged in his rookie campaign). With no “true centers” on the Suns roster other than Lopez, Robin should see decent runs based upon matchups.

Who is Lopez competing against for minutes?

First, there’s the slightly undersized-for-the-position Amare Stoudemire. As the alpha male of the Suns big men, it goes without saying that Amare will be on the floor when the game starts (and ends for that matter) at either the four or the five. If Amare ends up manning the four, Lopez has a much better shot of earning enough PT to be fantasy relevant. Lopez has the possibility of either starting or coming off the bench as the first big man.

While the Suns roster is by no means set in stone at this point in the offseason, we can already predict that Lopez will see a much bigger role this season. The loss of Shaq alone should guarantee that. However, the situation is further complicated by the addition of mobile big man Channing Frye to the roster as well as the continued development of Jared Dudley and Lou Amundson. How these three play will play a big factor in determining the extent of Lopez’s fantasy value this coming season.

As of now, the Suns depth chart is poised to look something like this:

PG: Steve Nash, Goran Dragic
SG: Jason Richardson, Leandro Barbosa, Alando Tucker
SF: Grant Hill, Earl Clark, Sasha Pavlovic
PF: Amar’e Stoudemire, Jared Dudley, Louis Amundson
C: Robin Lopez, Channing Frye

As mentioned earlier, Amare could be moved back to his unnatural position of center. If this is the case, then expect Lopez to be the first big off the bench to spell Amare, with Frye most likely starting at the four. In this scenario, Stoudemire and Frye could play the four and five interchangebly with both players preferring to shoot (and attack the rim in Amare’s case) instead of playing with their back to the basket.

However, what if the Suns decide to keep Amare in his Shaq-era position of power forward would open up the opportunity to have a true center (term used loosely here) in Lopez starting at the five. The other possibility to consider is that Lopez and Frye could both end up starting a decent number of games based upon matchups.

So let’s assume Lopez does indeed get more minutes. What kind of production could we expect?

Lopez’s per-36 minute numbers from last season were 11.1 points on .518/.691 percent shooting, 6.9 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.6 steals, 2.4 blocks, and 1.6 turnovers. So going into his second year where he could actually improve (at least a little bit) with increased playing time and confidence, Lopez becomes a potential third or fourth center for a fantasy team. His value lies with his rebounding to a certain degree and shot blocking ability to a large degree; his offensive game just isn’t there yet.

After watching Lopez battle in Las Vegas Summer League, he looks poised to make a definite impact on the defensive end (insert disclaimer about basing opinions on summer league play here). He was trying to reject every shot he could and did a solid job of making his presence known on the boards (even had a beastly 24 point, 16 rebound, 2 block game). On a side note, his summer league averages were remarkably similar to his per-36 minute stats from his rookie season. Remarkably similar.

If he is given starter status, and more importantly, minutes, expect Lopez to provide for those in need of a boost in rebounds and blocks with a respectable field goal percentage.

The Suns brought in Channing Frye as their lone unrestricted free agent prize this off-season (Grant Hill and Steve Nash also were re-signed as restricted free agents). Frye brings a well-rounded set of skills to the team as well as a high basketball IQ. He is a great mid-range shooter, capable defender against quicker big men and an underrated passer. He is quick on his feet and comfortable with the run-and-gun system the Suns will be getting back to this season under Alvin Gentry.

Frye can play either the four or the five but is much better suited to play the four. He will most likely have a career year with the Suns next season, earning ample playing time, somewhere in the 25-27 minute per game range. He will earn his keep off Nash pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop opportunities, just like Amare has done in years past. Amare and Frye are similar style players and could be a potent force together on the floor.

It will be up to Gentry to decide if he wants to emphasize defense early on and start Lopez or to go with the option of putting the most offensive firepower possible on the floor early on by starting both Frye and Stoudemire. It could change night-to-night with Lopez starting when the Suns play against bigger centers like Dwight Howard, Shaq or Kendrick Perkins.

As with Lopez, Frye’s playing time could hinge on the production of Jared The Junkyard Dog Dudley and Lou Sweet N’Lou Amundson. Yeah, those are both real nicknames. Both are pure hustle players who work hard on both ends of the floor on every possession. Dudley is more of a complete package who does all of the little things that role players should do. He has the shooting touch to go along with the defensive heart and ability.

Amundson is more of a defensive role player and rebounding specialist. He’s a lunch pail guy that every team needs. Plus, he is an absolute fan favorite in the Valley of the Suns. Both of these young players could end up earning minutes and cutting into both Lopez’s and Frye’s playing time. The extent to which this occurs is not known at least until training camp begins and we start to get a clearer picture of the new pecking order. Neither will be fantasy commodities except for in the deep leagues.

The Suns front court position battle is certainly one to keep an eye on this fall in training camp.

No matter how the rotation shakes out in the next few weeks, the Suns will have new-found depth in the front court. No matter what shakes out, one thing’s for certain: this team will be very different from the Seven Seconds or Shaq model of last year.

Step aside Lebron James, the real king of the NBA is Tim Duncan. The fact of the matter is that no other active NBA player has had a bigger impact on the game than the Big Fundamental. The only other candidates even in consideration would  be former teammates Kobe Bryant or Shaquille O’Neal.

Take a look at the San Antonio Spurs’ record during the Duncan era. Granted, TD has had a solid supporting cast of role players and complimentary stars but the consistent success at a high level is remarkable. The other major factor at work during the Tim Duncan era is the outstanding coaching from Gregg Popovich.

Among active coaches, the only other coach who parallels Pops’ level of coaching is the Zen Master himself, Phil Jackson. Popvich’s biggest strength as a coach is his ability to maximize the production and effectiveness of his role players to support his franchise player and complimentary stars.

What really stands out is the high level of winning, consistent across Duncan’s career. The winning percentages by season range from 0.646 to 0.768. From a cumulative perspective, Duncan’s Spurs have won .703 of their games. Considering the fact that these are statistics spanning twelve seasons, it is really a remarkable feat.

Winning .703 percent of games is really good for any franchise in any given season (that translates to an average of 57.6 wins per season). Doing it consistently for over a decade is what makes it truly a remarkable feat. Not to mention the four rings they collected along with the winning seasons.

The credit really goes to both Duncan and Popovich, as their rise to mythical status will be perennially intertwined (Co-Kings?). In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Popovich retired when Duncan decides to throw in the towel. Pop has always had a maverick streak in him.

The numbers don’t lie. And the numbers say that the real kings of the NBA are located in San Antonio.

For the guy who said that he is a moron if the Shaq trade doesn’t work (I’ll let you be the judge of this one), it must feel good to finally get something right. Steve Kerr’s treatment of Amar’e Stoudemire’s contract extension negotiations seems to be going much better than some of his other moves since being hired as General Manager of the Phoenix Suns.

“I think everything looks great, but before you make that kind of a financial commitment, or any commitment in this league, you have to know that your player is fine and ready to go,” Suns general manager Steve Kerr said on Tuesday. “I’m on the same page as Charlie [Grantham, Stoudemire's agent] and Amare. We need to see Amare on the court in October and see that everything’s going to be OK, which we fully expect. Before we make that kind of commitment, you’d better be sure.”

After a workout at U.S. Airways Center last week, Stoudemire said he believes he deserves a maximum extension.

Stoudemire can become a free agent after next season, but he has said he’d like to remain with the team that drafted him in the first round in 2002 — as long as the Suns are contenders. Phoenix missed the playoffs last season.

The Suns have fielded trade offers for Stoudemire this summer. But if they decide to keep him, they could sign him to an extension at any point next season.

Those talks could heat up if Stoudemire comes back strong from his surgery, as he has vowed to do.

“We need to see him play,” Kerr said. “Charlie knows that. Amare knows that. Obviously, the eye situation was more serious than what we first thought. The recovery time has taken longer.”

Source: ESPN

Whew!

It seems like the Suns have learned their lesson from the Gilbert Arenas saga in Washington. Remember, Arenas infamously inked a contract for six years and $111 million dollars in July 2008. In September of 2008, Arenas had ‘minor’ surgery and was surprised when there was a backlash at the announcement of his surgical procedure.

On crutches again, about to spend more time in physical therapy than he will in a gym, Gilbert Arenas actually doesn’t comprehend the fuss and worry.

“Why’s everybody tripping out?” he said from his cellphone yesterday, less than five hours after debris was removed from his surgically repaired left knee — the same knee that’s now been opened three times in 18 months.

“Big picture, if I start rehabbing now and get through the pain that prevented me from running or jumping this summer, I’ll be back on the court sooner,” he said. “How’s that a bad thing?”

Source: The Washington Post

The big deal was that the Wizards committed over a hundred million dollars and six years to Arenas and his bum knees. People were trippin’ because Arenas got paid over $14.5 million dollars in 2008-09 and he appeared in two games. That works out to a cool $7.25 million per game last season.

In waiting to see how Amar’e responds to the eye surgeries he has had before giving him a max deal, Kerr has ensured that the Suns don’t get Arenased (you heard it hear first folks) into paying a max contract to a player to rehab for a year.

The depth charts and free agents pages have been updated to reflect rosters at the start of free agency (negotiations opened on July 1st at midnight). The depth charts will be continually updated to reflect offseason moves when teams are allowed to officially cut deals beginning next week. Until then, just enjoy the steady churning of the rumor mill and hope your team lands an emerging talent (Paul Millsap or Trevor Ariza anyone?) that puts them over the top. Like if the Suns could somehow land Marcin Gortat (after buying out Ben Wallace of course). That would be a very nice way to close the book on the Shaq era in the valley of the Suns.

This past Saturday, the ever-present NBA trade rumors began to swirl again. This time talks were centered around one of the NBA’s biggest stars (literally), Shaquille O’Neal of the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns and the Cleveland Cavaliers are rumored to be engaged in preliminary trade talks that would send O’Neal to the Cavs for the expiring contracts of Ben Wallace ($14 million) and Sasha Pavlovic ($4.95 million with $1.5 million guaranteed). This is strictly a cost cutting move as far as the Suns are concerned.

The team does not want to go deep into luxury tax territory, especially considering that this is a team that failed to even reach the playoffs in 2009. Bloated with the league’s sixth largest payroll last season and an aging core of superstars, the Shaq trade could really help free up some money for Phoenix as well as allow them to return to their run and gun offense.

Here is the breakdown:

With O’Neal’s $20 million salary (but a $21 million salary-cap number due to a trade kicker), the trade could save the Suns $9.9 million or even more if Wallace wants a buyout. The trade would save the Suns $3.1 million in payroll and projected luxury tax. Cutting Pavlovic, who has $1.5 million guaranteed in his final contract year’s $4.95 million salary, could save another $6.8 million in payroll and tax.

From a straight basketball perspective this is a home run for the Cavaliers. The Cavs made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals this year but ultimately fell short of their goal of winning a championship. The Cavs were exposed for their lack of a true interior presence. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (whose foot is full of metal plates and screws from multiple surgeries) was nowhere near up to the task of providing a defensive answer to the man-child that is Dwight Howard in the paint.

Adding Shaq to the mix allows Cleveland to match-up with the Howards, the Elton Brands and the KGs of the Eastern Conference. They would immediately have a post presence to go to late in games when Mo Williams‘ and Delonte West’s jump shots aren’t falling.

Lebron James can’t possibly be expected to carry the offensive load every single night can he? Putting Shaq in the middle clogs the lane and gives you a legitimate defensive stopper as well as a more than capable offensive option (60% field goal percentage last season).

As evidenced by his time in Phoenix, Shaq’s biggest defensive flaw might be defending the pick-and-roll. However, he would still command double teams in the post freeing up the rest of the Cav’s shooters. Cleveland, with Shaq and a couple other key additions, would be in great position for a title run next season.

One thing is for sure though. Shaq still has a little diesel left in that huge tank of his.

Congratulations to the Los Angeles Lakers who are the 2009 NBA Champions.

The story lines are endless with this championship. Lakers coach Phil Jackson earns his tenth championship ring (six with the Bulls and four with the Lakers) to pass the legendary Red Auerbach as the coach with the most rings in NBA history. Kobe Bryant finally silences the haters as he wins a ring without Shaquille O’Neal (which is an absurd criticism because nobody wins an NBA championship alone).

With the Larry O’Brien trophy in hand, the Lakers will return to L.A. as champions. So how did people react to the Lakers’ convincing defeat of the Orlando Magic in five games? In an all too familiary sequence of events, people rioted all over the world in anger Laker Nation rioted in Los Angeles to celebrate the team’s hard earned victory.

Huh?

Police say they have arrested two residents of a downtown L.A. loft for receiving stolen property after the couple picked up some athletic shoes that had been stolen from a looted shoe store. That would bring the total number of arrests in Sunday night’s post-Lakers-victory melee to 23.

Investigators also said they will be reviewing video to identify other people involved in the violence. Eight Los Angeles police offers suffered minor injuries and 21 people were arrested during Lakers victory celebrations that turned riotous outside the Staples Center, authorities said today.

Following the Lakers’ 99-86 win over the Orlando Magic on Sunday night, officers faced small groups of revelers in downtown Los Angeles who shook passing cars, threw debris and sparked fires.

Source: The Los Angeles Times

Ok, not exactly unprecedented territory here but ridiculous all the same. At least (so far) no one has died because of the revelry in Los Angeles. Can you imagine a more meaningless death than to to die celebrating your team’s championship? Having never experienced such a feeling personally (Suns fan), it is hard to imagine what drives someone to turn from celebrating to looting, but my guess is that it probably involves large quantities of alcohol.

There is ample reason to celebrate in Orlando tonight with the Magic making their first NBA Finals appearance since 1995 when they had a young center named Shaquille O’Neal. Nowadays, the Magic have another young center roaming the paint but may have just been given another reason to celebrate. Rumors now have point guard Jameer Nelson possibly making a Finals appearance as he has made great strides since he dislocated his shoulder in February.

They are encouraged by Nelson’s rehabilitation so much that they will evaluate the possibility of the all-star playing if the club reaches the NBA Finals against the Lakers, the Sentinel has learned.

Vander Weide said the team is exploring whether Nelson can return after undergoing shoulder surgery Feb. 19. He hasn’t played since he was injured Feb. 3 against the Dallas Mavericks.

Although Nelson wouldn’t be in prime condition, Vander Weide said, “the chance to get an all-star point guard on the floor for 15 minutes a game…you’d have to look at that.”

Source: Orlando Sentinal

With the Magic playing incredible basketball right now, the question arises of whether the Magic even try and play Nelson at all? After all, if it ain’t broke then don’t break it. Both starting point guard Rafer Alston and backup veteran point guard Anthony Johnson have played well throughout the postseason. Is it worth messing with the successful tandem that has anchored the Orlando backcourt to bring Nelson back into the mix?

This past season Jameer was putting up really nice numbers, averaging16.7 points on 50.3/45.3/88.7 percent shooting, 3.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.1 blocks and 2.0 turnovers per game.  He scored efficiently from the field and was especially deadly from behind the arc. Most impressively, however, was Nelson’s defensive presence on the floor (compare Nelson with his counterpart’s per-48 minute production).

There is a serious risk in bringing Nelson in at this stage in the game. He is obviously going to be very rusty and will most definitely not be in game shape. With over four months of rest, Nelson may not be mentally prepared to step into the pressure of the Finals without having a few full contact practices under his belt. Also, trying to rotate three players for one position (see the Lakers with Derek Fisher, Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar; they can really only expect solid production from one of the three on any given night). When players do not know how many minutes there are going to play on any given night, it can have a negative effect on their play.

Another Lakers parallel seems relevant here. The 2007-08 Lakers trying to work Andrew Bynum back into the rotation during the playoffs had mixed success. There are mentle hurdles that players must overcome in order to truly play at full strength on a recently injured body part (for example a player can favor the healthy leg and actually damage their healthy leg in the process). Although the doctors may have cleared Nelson’s body to play basketball, there is no telling whether he is mentally prepared to play at full strength effectively.

Both Alston and Johnson have been effective enough to believe that the Magic can legitimately challenge the Lakers in this year’s NBA Finals with or without Jameer Nelson. Although Nelson would probably be the best suited to defend Derek Fisher, the Lakers’ point guards do not play as integral of a role in the Lakers offense than other point guards in the league. However it would probably be wise to get Nelson into the best shape possible to insure against an injury to either of the Magic’s other point guards. It’s hard to fault a team for having too much depth at the point.

One of the big rumors near the trade deadline this season was the Phoenix Suns sending Shaquille O’Neal to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic.

“The Phoenix Suns discussed a potential trade with the Cleveland Cavaliers which would have paired Shaquille O’Neal with LeBron James for a run at the NBA title, two NBA executives familiar with the talks said Thursday morning. A Cavs official, however, said any talks regarding O’Neal have since ended.

One agent said the Suns told him they weren’t doing a deal. The Cavs’ discussions with Phoenix centered on sending Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic to the Suns.”

Source: Yahoo! Sports

Anyone think the Cavs would want a take-back on this one?

After watching them get man-handled by Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic, do you think the Cavs brass are dying to hit reset? Shaq is one of the few centers that can guard Howard one-on-one without getting annihilated. He also can get into Howard’s head, causing him to make poor decisions and to get into foul trouble (using that all important ‘veteran saavy’).

Wallace does a decent enough job guarding Howard, but is such an assent on the offensive end that the Magic don’t really have to guard him. This allows his man to act as a help defender or weak-side shot blocker. When guarding Wallace, Howard doesn’t get into foul trouble as much, which is critical to slowing down the Magic (although Marcin Gortat has proven to be a force off the bench as well).

With Lebron James, Shaq and Mo Williams the Cavaliers would have three players in the starting lineup capable of dropping twenty points on any given night. Even if they had to throw Wally Szczerbiak into the deal to make it sweet enough for the Suns, the Cavs would still be in much better shape and would probably not be facing elimination at the hands of the Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Hindsight is 20/20 — which coincidentally is what the Cavs need to avoid elimination (20 points and 20 boards from the center position).