It’s the final countdown! Before I get into this week’s list, I’ve got to keep harping over these guys whose ownership is just over 40%: Carlos Delfino, George Hill, Taj Gibson and Drew Gooden. Hill looks to be primed to finish the year like a beast thanks to Tony Parker’s broken hand. Gibson has excellent prospects as well as Joakim Noah isn’t even close to being a force in the paint anytime soon. Lastly, Gooden and Delfino seem they’ll be able to continue their multi-cat ways.
Everyone ready for the home stretch? We’ve got 3 weeks left before most fantasy playoffs begin in Week 22. However, don’t view this as a time to coast as it could be more important than ever to pay attention to your teams. Whether you’re fighting to make the playoffs or simply looking to make those final tweaks to bring home a championship, the moves you make now could potentially decide your entire seasons. So FOCUS!
The NBA basketball season is underway and with that a number of us are participating in various fantasy leagues. It’s obviously an exciting time as we get to see how our newly drafted teams kick off the year. A few will be happy with the initial results, but most of us will have qualms about at least a player or two on our roster. To add to the confusion, there are several guys just sitting on the waiver wire begging to picked up after putting up an enticing line or two. Should we jump the gun and pick them up? Or will we regret our decision and feel like the league’s laughing stock?
Since most of us play in standard sized leagues (12 teams each with 13 players), I’m going to gear the examples in this article towards them. Before you pick up that alluring free agent, I want you to ask yourself 3 questions.
First, regarding the player in question, will he have an opportunity to put up serviceable numbers consistently for at least the near future? The main thing you want to examine is minutes. Inconsistent time on the court is almost always going to lead to spotty production.
There are numerous indicators that point to solid time. Perhaps the player just fell into a solid role due to a teammate’s injury. Maybe he emerged as the leading candidate from a position battle. Or he could be a young guy or a non-playoff team who improved significantly over the the summer.
On the other hand, guys like DeJuan Blair, Ty Lawson, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams and Jason Williams should probably be left on the waiver wire. They have all had a solid line or two, but in all their cases it is unlikely to continue. For instance, promising rookies like Blair and Lawson have had some eye-popping numbers but it came in blowouts where the starters played significantly less.
Next, you need to ask what is the free agent’s prior history? There are always a few players in the league who continue to entice owners year after year because they show a glimpse of good value. For example, this season, already Larry Hughes, Erick Dampier and Travis Outlaw have probably lured a few fantasy managers to pick them up.
However, it’s probably not a good idea. Hughes has a solid history of putting up an occasionally stellar line the last few years, but he can never sustain any consistent production. Moreover, he is currently getting quite a bit of run at the expense of Nate Robinson’s short term injury. Don’t forget Larry DEFINITELY-NOT-A Legend, made 1 of 23 shots in preseason.
Erick Dampier has currently enjoyed several solid lines, but I don’t think he’s turned back the clock. His numbers have been in steady decline since the Mavericks landed him 5 years. Also, newly signed Drew Gooden has missed several games due to a pulled rib cage muscle.
Travis Outlaw has the ability to score in bunches, but Portland is so deep that even with Nicolas Batum’s shoulder injury he’ll be more off than on. Martell Webster is still the starter and most nights they’ll cancel out one another’s value with the dreaded fantasy time share.
Third, how useful will the free agent be on my team? For Rotisserie and Points leagues, this may not be that large of an issue since every player has similar value to every other manager in the league. However, if you’ve already got two solid 3 point shooting guards on your bench, does it really make sense to add a third and thereby really limiting your team’s flexibility?
On the contrary, in Head to Head leagues, managers need to also examine whether the free agent will help their strengths. Many owners don’t (and rightfully so) try to be competitive in all the categories in their league. It just doesn’t make sense to try to win them all when it substantially reduces the odds of winning the majority of categories week in and week out. Thus, when picking up a free agent, a manager should always be aware of his strengths and improve on those, rather than fruitlessly worry about their weaknesses.
Naturally, you should ignore the last two paragraphs if the free agent in question looks like they’ll post top 100 value for an extended period of time. Even though the player may not suit your team, he will surely be coveted by someone else and would make excellent trade bait.
Over the course of the season, I’m going to try to touch on a few subjects focusing on particular strategies everyone should be aware of in fantasy basketball. If any of you would like to see a particular topic discussed, feel free to email me or leave a comment at the end of the article.
In competitive fantasy leagues, it’s never too early to start to identify potential sleepers for next season. Even though almost anything can change over the next two months, some players are already emerging as potential studs or breakout candidates for 2009-10.
The recipe for a potential sleeper is never the same. Sometimes it is true progression as a player, other times a trade or injury opens up minutes for a player. It can even be a truly unexplainable phenomenon. Whatever the reason, breakout players are essential to securing the ever-elusive hardware when playing against other knowledgeable managers.
Let’s break the potential sleepers into three groups: the guards, the forwards and the centers. With the guards and the forwards down, only the centers remain.
Brook Lopez — Next to Anthony Randolph, Lopez is this summer’s other worst kept secret. Knowledgeable fantasy managers across the country are excited. And for good reason, too. Lopez and Devin Harris are the Nets’ de facto franchise players, as both have already proven to be extremely talented.
Lopez’s rookie season was outstanding and mirrors another franchise center’s rookie averages to a remarkable degree. Check out rookie season comparisons for Brook Lopez and Yao Ming. In particular, compare the two players’ per-36 minute stats. It’s interesting that Brook actually had a higher field goal percentage than Yao did as a rook.
In real life, Yao was better than Brook. For evidence of that in his statline, compare Yao’s and Brook’s defensive rating, which is a measure of points allowed per 100 possessions (D-Rating). Check out Yao’s D-Rating of 100 compared to Lopez’s D-Rating of 110. Clearly, Yao as a rookie was a much better defender than Brook was last season.
However in fantasy, who is better in real life doesn’t matter and who is the better defender doesn’t matter either. Stats matter and the numbers say that in terms of fantasy production, the Yao-Lopez comparison is within reason. So what did Yao’s statline look like in his second season? His points per game jumped from 13.5 to 17.5 and his efficiency from the floor jumped as well from solid .498 to very respectable .522 from the center position.
If Lopez’s fantasy numbers follow a similar path as Yao’s, he is bound to be a fantasy sleeper that is sure to fulfill his promise and potential. Just be ready to reach for Brook, as his average draft position in competitive leagues (according to Matt Buser’s August 31, 2009 ADP Report) is 28th overall. And in a keeper leagues, Lopez’s value is exponentially higher.
Emeka Okafor — As it’s been chronicled at BFFA in the past, Okafor should consider himself one of the luckiest men alive. He is going to be playing alongside the league’s most talented and exciting point guard, Chris Paul. As far as the current group of active point guards is concerned, the debate is about who is second, not first. CP3 is just that good.
It is widely speculated that Okafor’s numbers will improve playing alongside Paul but what kind of fantasy production can we realistically expect from Okafor next season?
Take a look at Okafor’s career statistics, with the idea of using these numbers as a sort of pre-Paul benchmark. In five season in the NBA, Okafor has averaged 14.0 points on .505/.596 percent shooting, 10.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. For what it’s worth, his career assist-to-turnover ratio is 0.499. Ouch.
His career numbers mask a trend with his field goal percentage, which is a trend towards a higher field goal percentage as his time in the league has progressed. Last season, Okafor’s field goal percentage was .561. Also, it should be noted that Okafor played in all 82 games in both of the last two seasons after avergaging 55 games per season in his first three years in the League.
So playing next to Paul, you’d expect Okafor to get better looks around the rim. No disrespect to Raymond Felton, but Paul is in another universe when it comes to getting his teammates higher percentage attempts. With that in mind, Okafor should progress close to the 60 percent mark for field goal percentage while boosting his scoring averages to career highs.
Being taken in the early sixth round so far this season based upon speculation of a fantasy production boost, Okafor could end up providing valuable dividends on the right teams. On any head-to-head teams that is punting free throw percentage, Emeka should provide very nice production and could easily outproduce his draft position. Or, for teams that can take on a poor free throw shooter, Okafor could be an excellent second center to anchor field goal percentage, rebounds and blocks.
Spencer Hawes — Flashy is probably not a word that will ever be used to describe Hawes’ fantasy or real-life game. Not gonna happen. Steady, maybe one day. Functional, hey why not?
His per-36 minutes from last season were 14.0 points on .466/.662 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 8.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.5 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Again, nothing flashy but very solid and respectable from a second or third center. What is really nice is to see that Hawes is increasing his three pointers per game.
With that in mind, check out this comparison of second year averages. A Mehmet Okur comparison should be a good thing for any young, big man in the Association. Okur was a much better shooter from the charity stripe, but their overall lines are relatively similar. Not a bad possible career trajectory for Mr. Hawes.
Another thing to consider in this situation is the team makeup and outlook for next season. There isn’t any point in sugar-coating it; the Kings were dreadful last season and will almost certainly be dreadful next season as well. But the good news is that Hawes has little competition for minutes at the center position and should put up steady contributions across the board.
Joakim Noah — Last season’s playoffs can be thought of as a watershed for a few players and teams in the League. The Dwight Howard-led Orlando Magic and the Chicago Bulls are some example of teams that made huge steps during the postseason.
How about Joakim Noah? Noah is an interesting case study because his watershed moment can be pinpointed to a specific play.
With that, Noah put everyone, pundits and players alike, on notice.
Noah’s second year averages were decent, but his post-All-Star Game splits showed vast improvement based largely upon bigger minutes. With his outstanding play in the postseason for the Bulls, expect a bigger role next season as a reward.
Next season, Noah could be in store for a similar line to his per-36 minute averages from last season. He averaged 10.0 points on .556/.676 percent shooting, 11.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. A double-double average with two blocks and a steal is very nice from such a young player. For leagues that count offensive rebounds, Noah is even more valuable (averaged a whopping 4.5 offensive boards per-36 minutes last season). Bonus!
Noah is a nice third center option and provides the lunch-pail stats that all fantasy teams rely on. With an average draft position of 105th, Joakim can be obtained late in the draft and is a nice bet to outproduce his draft position.
Roy Hibbert — Looking for a big man to burn a late round flier on? Look no further than Georgetown standout (average draft position of 144th overall), Roy Hibbert. Hibbert plays in one of the league’s most fantasy friendly systems (third in pace) under Coach Jim O’Brien.
Playing for a Pacers team that lost Rasho Nesterovic to Toronto, there is suddenly an opportunity for increased minutes next season. Nesterovic’s departure freed up 17.3 minutes per game at the center position. If you assume that most of those minutes will be funneled to Hibbert (14.4 minutes per game last season), suddenly Roy is looking at nearly 30 minutes per night. With minutes comes fantasy production.
What can we expect from Hibbert in 30 minutes of action per night?
Looking at his per-36 minute stats from his rookie season, the promise is easy to see. He averaged 17.6 points on .471/.667 percent shooting, 8.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.7 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. That’s over 17 points per game, almost nine rebounds and almost three blocks per game. That is big time fantasy potential right there.
If you factor in the possibility of a Troy Murphy injury, and Hibbert starts to look like a very nice sleeper next season. Speaking of a possible Murphy injury, Roy Hibbert and Troy Murphy make a great pair of players to handcuff next season in the right formats.
With some of the early (and obvious) sleepers exposed, next are the deep sleepers for extremely competitive leagues or deeper formats.
