Basketball Free For All

The All Star break is always a good time to start reviewing and analyzing the current season, as we are starting to acquire large enough of a sample size to begin to make decent judgments. With the season over 60 percent complete, the Coach of the Year (COTY) race is starting to take shape, with two coaches in particular rising above the rest of the pack: Atlanta’s Mike Woodson and Oklahoma City’s Scott Brooks. However, this season there are a decent number of qualified coaches so we’ll break down the other hopefuls and also examine the COTY’s recent (and in some ways dubious) history to get a full picture of this season’s race.

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It wasn’t all that long ago that fans and analysts alike praised the outstanding play of the Lakers’ bench players, dubbed them the “Bench Mob” and put them among the league’s elite reserve units. This season, the Bench Mob was supposed to continue the tradition of wreaking havoc on opposing teams’ second units while spelling starters Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Ron Artest and Derek Fisher and maintaining or extending leads while the Lakers attempt to defend their title.

Over the past few years, the Bench Mob has been known for being aggressive during their stints on the court, sporting the swagger of a starting unit when they enter a game. The following account from the 2007-08 season summarizes the rise of L.A.’s Bench Mob and the respect they garnered.

A worthy next-generation supporting cast has suddenly appeared in the most appropriate of cities — Los Angeles — where a feisty band of extras serves at the pleasure of a genuine leading man. The Lakers’ Kobe Bryant, as Jordan once did, enriches these lesser lights figuratively (by the grandeur of his talent) and literally (backup point guard Jordan Farmar snagged a Louis Vuitton bag for Christmas), and so they aid him utterly and enthusiastically, while also making sure that their walk-on moments are duly recorded. “If we win a championship,” says reserve guard Sasha Vujacic, “we know it will be mainly because of Kobe. But we will have something to say about it too.”

Source: Jack McCallum, Sports Illustrated

Oh, how times have changed.

That era seems like a distant memory, as the 2009-10 version of the Bench Mob has been ineffective at best and downright detrimental at worst. Before looking at the numbers, let’s meet the Bench Mob first and see who has come and gone over the years.

Meet the Mob

When the Lakers are at full strength this season, the following players are the Lakers’ bench players (listed in descending order according to minutes played this season): Lamar Odom, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Josh Powell, D.J. Mbenga, Adam Morrison and Luke Walton (although Walton has been injured for most of the season with a bum back). If we limit the Lakers’ rotation to only ten guys, the top five bench players are Odom, Brown, Farmar, Vujacic and Powell.

From last season’s Championship squad, the Bench Mob’s top five consisted of Trevor Ariza, Vujacic, Farmar, Walton and Vladimir Radmanovic. From the 2007-08 version, it was Walton, Farmar, Vlad-Rad, Ronny Turiaf and Vujacic. While there has been some turnover with the Bench Mob, it is also clear that there have been some constants with the Bench Mob (Farmar, Vujacic, Walton being the mainstays) making year-to-year comparisons interesting, if not totally legitimate.

With that in mind, the one thing can be analyzed independently of the year-to-year comparisons is the Bench Mob’s performance on the court so far this season.

Bench Mob Production, 2009-10

Taking a look at bench production for this season, the numbers point to the Lakers’ Bench Mob being one of the weaker in the League, no matter how you choose to evaluate their performance. In nearly every category (turnovers being the main exception), the Bench Mob provides below average production relative to the other 29 benches in the League.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Data Source: Hoops Stats

When scrolling down the list, what strikes you most about this version of the Lakers’ Bench Mob is how they excel at nothing and are average to downright pitiful in almost every respect. For a major market team that leads the league in payroll, this should be absolutely unacceptable from their bench players. At the very least, they should excel (i.e. be in the top three) in a few categories and should be average in most others.

All of the categories listed in the table above are self explanatory except for Efficiency, which is Hoops Stats’ simple means of comparing the overall statistical impact of a team based upon numbers available in the standard box score. The comparison can either be cumulative or on a game-by-game basis. The formula itself is Efficiency = ((PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK) – ((FGA – FGM) + (FTA – FTM) + TOV)). By no means is this the perfect system for comparing teams (problems such as it values points/rebounds/assists/steals/blocks equally, does not account for pace, etc.), but it is a quick and dirty, but objective, way of measuring on court performance.

So now focusing on Efficiency, which can be thought of as a method of comparing the total impact of the bench unit, the Lakers are 24th in the League. If you compare the Bench Mob’s Efficiency rating of 29.3 to their opponents’ bench Efficiency rating of 38.0, you get a differential of -8.7. Compare this efficiency differential to prior seasons and you see how the Bench Mob has fallen off this season (2007-08: net efficiency of 0.9th good for 13th overall; 2008-09: net efficiency of 2.1 good for 9th overall). In the prior two seasons, the Lakers’ bench has had a positive impact for the team while on the floor. This season, the Bench Mob has been a net loss for the Lakers relative to other teams’ bench production. Simple as that.

Looking at the entire season’s numbers, the Bench Mob has clearly not been an elite bench unit for the defending world champs. But what kind of an impact does the bench have on the Lakers’ overall success?

A Closer Look: Game-by-Game Production

Taking Hoops Stats’ Efficiency rating one step further, we can break the Bench Mob’s success (and failure) down to a game-by-game basis. When looking at a game-by-game perspective, the Bench Mob is 11-22 in the Efficiency rating battle, meaning that the Lakers have had a greater Efficiency rating (using the same formula listed above) than their opponent’s bench 11 times and a lesser rating 22 times.

In the 11 games in which the Lakers bench won their matchups, the Lakers are 10-1 for a .909 winning percentage. In the 22 games in which the Lakers bench lost their matchups, the Lakers are 17-5 for a .773 winning percentage. The difference is startling. If you think of each of the two winning percentages relative to their overall winning percentage of .818 (27-6), the difference is even more pronounced. When the bench loses the Efficiency battle, it reduces the Lakers’ chance of victory from .818 to .773, for a net loss of -0.45 winning percentage. When the Bench Mob wins the Efficiency front, it boosts their chances to of picking up a W from .818 to a staggering .909, for a net gain of .091 winning percentage relative to the average.

Thus, the Lakers’ bench play affects their ability to win basketball games in a very significant and tangible way.

Payroll v. Production

As alluded to earlier, the Lakers’ salary situation makes their average (or poor, depending upon your perspective) bench play less palatable. The Lakers have the biggest payroll in the league, coming in at a whopping $91,341,066 (salary statistics via Sham Sports). The bench represents $28,452,691 of Los Angeles’ total salary, which is 31 percent of the team’s total salary. In a vacuum, the Lakers’ bench seems to be a decent bargain but a point of comparison would probably provide some insight.

For some perspective, let’s see how the Bench Mob stacks up against the League’s best bench, again measured in terms of net Efficiency. The San Antonio Spurs’ bench is far and away the Association’s best bench, with a net efficiency gain of +21.4 . For more perspective, the next most productive bench is Cleveland’s with a +11.3 so it is safe to say that the Spurs’ bench is the gold standard. In terms of salary, the Spurs bench players account for 32 percent of their total salary. In relative terms, the Spurs are spending the same ratio of their total amount of  team salary on their bench but getting a much better return on their investment. In absolute terms, it’s no contest.

Conclusion

The Lakers’ Bench Mob has been relatively pedestrian this season and has certainly been their weakest bench in three years. They’ve lost the aggressive brand of arrogance past Bench Mob versions have exhibited while on the floor in both crunch time and garbage time. The bench is critical to the any team’s success in the NBA but even more so to a team that is defending a title and gearing up for a deep postseason run. Just imagine if this team had San Antonio’s bench instead of their own! However, this Lakers team doesn’t need the League’s best bench to defend their title — they just need a bench that is slightly above average due to their league-leading starting five.

While their cumulative impact has been disappointing thus far this season, there is some hope for the Lakers faithful. On Sunday, the Lakers routed the Dallas Mavericks with the bench contributing a season-high 66 points and Jordan Farmar tying his career-high of 24 points. This game had the feel of a turning point for the Bench Mob, a game in which the regain their confidence and swagger. If that is the case, the Lakers’ chance of repeating will be infinitely greater than if their early-season woes continue.

Coming into this NBA season, the New Jersey Net’s expectations were low.  However, no one expected them to challenge ineptitude of historic proportions.  The Nets recent loss to the Dallas Mavericks resulted in being associated with the distinct dishonor of the worst start by any franchise in NBA history.  Worse than any expansion team or some historical bad franchise like the Clippers.  Even though they’ve recently broken through with a win, will putting their worst leg(s) forward hurt the team beyond this season?

Just How Bad Have Things Been?

To put it bluntly, the Nets have been awful.  They have the worst offensive rating (94.7), the worst points per game (87.60), the worst FG% (41.0) and the worst assists (16.25).  Most of their losses haven’t even been close as their point differential stands a little over 10 points per game (only Minnesota is worse).

To be fair, at one point they only had one original starter available for a period of time.  Devin Harris, Yi Jianlian, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Courtney Lee have all missed time for various aliments.  One of these players, CDR, was the first NBA player infected with the swine flu.  Prior to their first win against Charlotte, this foursome had missed 34 games out of a possible 72.  Don’t forget that it takes time to get back into the swing of things such as chemistry and conditioning.

Can’t also discount they’ve had some key role players miss the majority of the season:  Tony Battie, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes and Eduardo Najera.  Without a solid bench, it’s no wonder this patchwork team has been tragic against the rest of the NBA.  The New Jersey Nets probably wish they had as many healthy legs as their cheerleaders.

Did Management Stoke the Fire?

Coming into the season, the Nets had no established veterans – star or even borderline.  Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter had all been traded away.  However, a number of followers and writers proclaimed this was a good thing.  New Jersey had some promising young talent including a potentially fantastic PG and C.  More importantly, they would have about 25 million in available cap space for 2010.  As you’re probably aware, there are some fantastic names that may be available in free agency including Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire.

There does lie a problem with this thinking – it’s a year away.  For 2009, most experts predicted they’d finish at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.  Nothing new here as I’m sure most of us felt the same.  With obvious turmoil looming, why then was Lawrence Frank fired?

I guess it’s Lawrence’s fault that they wanted to go young and [clear] cap space and that everybody got hurt,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said Sunday night, before his team beat another one that is dangerously walking the 2010 tightrope, the Knicks.  “Maybe he was banging them up in practice, taking a baseball bat to them or something.  I just know that with the lineups he’s had to put on the floor, I don’t think any coach would’ve done anything better than he’s done.”

Source:  CBS Sports

Pretty hard to disagree with Stan’s assessment when considering the roster and all the injuries they’ve had to deal with thusfar.  However, were there issues going on out of the public eye?  Apparently, yes.

Sources said Nets management had come to believe that Frank had lost much of the team, a fact that has played out in losses to Denver and Sacramento in the past week. Once the Nets played so poorly against the Kings – believed to be the most winnable game on the trip – management decided it could no longer go on with Frank as coach.

Despite the return of point guard Devin Harris and shooting guard Courtney Lee, the Nets have played long stretches of uninspired basketball. “Most of the guys have tuned him out,” one source with direct knowledge of the locker room environment said. “This isn’t all Lawrence’s fault, but everyone knows that this can’t go on anymore.”

Source: Adrian Wojnarowski

Beat writers close to the Nets also observed that Frank and Devin Harris were not seeing eye to eye.

“In the times I’ve been here, I’ve been so (angry) because of a lack of effort,” Frank said last week. “But these guys are giving virtually everything they’ve got.”

But they didn’t give him the effort lately and he had to go. Now, the next coach will have to coax more team play out of Devin Harris, who had problems with Frank’s controlling style and has gained the reputation of being a solo act.

“Last year we had Vince Carter and he was a positive influence on the young guys,” said one team official. “But he’s not here, and it hurts because the coach and point guard are not on the same page.”

Source:  Mitch Lawrence

Consequently, it’s not surprising the Nets let Frank go.  At least, they fired him before they set the all-time record so that his name wouldn’t have to be associated with it.

Therefore, on the surface, it would seem they’ve made the correct moves.  There is one thing still bothering me though.  Did they consider the consequences if this team loses too many games?

Will a really bad record have long term effects?

We’ll examine two aspects to gauge possible long term affect:

1) How historically poor teams fare with rosters primarily consisting of talented youth in following years.

2) How many big time free agents signed with historically bad teams in following seasons.

1) First, we’ll examine how promising teams reacted to severely disappointing seasons.  Specifically, we’ll look at the 1993-94 Dallas Mavericks, 1999-00 Chicago Bulls and the 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers.  These teams were chosen because they were all in the midst of serious rebuilding with promising youth with a significant stretch of poor play.

The 1993-94 Mavericks team finished with a 13-69 record, but they were best known for posting a 2-39 record (OUCH) through the midpoint of the season.  The team wasn’t completely devoid of talent as they had two promising but young 19 point scorers in Jim Jackson and Jamal Mashburn.  So how dire did it get?

You hear about it and read about it, but words cannot really describe the hopelessness down here. At one point last night, the Dallas Mavericks called a 20-second timeout and spent a good 15 seconds trudging back to the huddle, defeated.

At courtside, owner Donald Carter sat in his hideous shirt and his jeans and his 10-gallon hat, cheering his team wildly while it was 15 down. The latest news? Jimmy Jackson says he’ll never, ever, EVER sign with the Mavs, no matter how many faxes they send.

Source:  Encyclopedia.com

Well Jim ended up staying (contracts will do that to you), but the Mavericks continued to flounder by averaging close to a 27-55 record the next 4 years.  This is impressive despite drafting win-producer Jason Kidd.  It seemed that the 3 J’s were destined to be part of a great future, but this wasn’t the case.  In 1996-97, all three were traded away as the team decided to go in a new direction under Don Nelson.

The 1999-00 Chicago Bulls finished with a 17-65 record, a few seasons removed from the Jordan era.  The team did have some promising rookies in Elton Brand and Ron Artest while bringing in John Starks and Bruce Bowen after trading away Toni Kukoc during the season.  The following season the Bulls drafted/acquired Brad Miller, Jamal Crawford, Marcus Fizer and Ron Mercer, but this time they won only 15 games including losing a franchise worst 21 straight games on the road.

Overall, the promise never amounted to anything as the team averaged a 22-60 during the four year stretch after the 1999-2000 season.  The overriding theme seemed to be concentrating on youth without enough experience as they fell into a pattern gambling on youth that failed to pan out including Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler and Jay Williams.

The 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers were able to collect some talent after two horrendous years.  However, Lamar Odom, Derek Anderson, Maurice Taylor and Michael Olowokandi only managed 15 wins while starting the season with a then NBA record of 17 straight losses.

On paper, this team’s untapped talent and balance — four players averaging more than 13 points per game, and arguably the largest collection of “he’s-got-great-upside” players — belies its results.

Source: NBA.com

In the following years, they garnered an impressive amount of talent on paper: Darius Miles, Quentin Richardson, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand and Andre Miller.  Guess what, all these young guys managed to contribute an average W/L record of 31-51 the following four years.

Now, there have been some deviations from the norm when franchises have decided to completely entrust their future in youth.  Namely, the Portland Trail Blazers come to mind.  After blowing up the Jail Blazers and some troubling players the next few years, they appear to be ready to challenge the league’s best for years to come.  However, it would appear it takes a special bunch of players like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge among others to make it happen.

Therefore, where does this leave the current Nets?  Coming into this year, there were no illusions, but there was hope that the Nets had put together a solid young core.  However, Dave Berri of The Wages of Win Journal made an interesting analysis of the Net’s franchise.  Basically, when Jason Kidd has not been on their team, they’ve been a bad team and his predictions don’t have anything changing that.

In addition, their terrible start is already affecting their morale:

“We don’t have any heart,” Chris Douglas-Roberts, the second-year guard, said. “It’s like we’re laying down. Weak. It’s a sign of weakness.”

Douglas-Roberts said the word was out on his team: “All you got to do is come out, punch them in the mouth and they’ll give up and run with their tail between their legs.”

Although the Nets were decimated by injuries early in the streak, they are nearly back to whole. Yet the fight they briefly showed in close defeats in early November is nonexistent.

“The spirit’s been broken a little bit,” said guard Devin Harris, the Nets’ lone All-Star.

Source:  New York Times

Uh-oh – hopefully, this is just a fleeting attitude and the Nets can put together a lot of solid performances.  Otherwise, you’ve got to believe they’ll continue to be tested mentally as other historically bad teams and it will take all their effort to stay together and focused on a common goal.

2) A second method of attempting to change years of bad fortune is through free agency.  A key signing or two could significantly change a team’s outlook.  However, there are multiple obstacles to this theory.  Poorly performing teams seem to have trouble acquiring or keeping top talent.

Let’s look at the top 30 players by salary (all over $14M). 15 of them are on teams that had over a .600 win% (50+ wins), while just 3 of them are on sub-.400 teams. In other words, the most successful teams employed 1.67 of these elite players on average, while the worst teams employed just 0.375 elite players.

Source: Hawkonomics

These statistics were compiled from last year’s payroll and performance.  One can gleam two likely scenarios for this disparity.  One, top players usually have choices in their destination; thus, they choose to play for a winning team that gives them a shot for a championship.  Two, poor performing teams usually suffer from the lack of capital necessary to sign major free agents.  Media outlets aren’t interested to pay top dollar to carry broadcasts while businesses and fans aren’t interested in sinking money for tickets, suites and other endeavors.

In one of the other historically bad teams we analyzed, the Chicago Bulls attempted to go the free agency route:

Remember, the summer of 2000 was supposed to be it. Actually, scratch that, Chicago had big designs on the summer of 1999, if we’re honest. And, if we’re to be completely accurate, the summer of 1998 was supposed to see all sorts of free agents flock to Chicago to eat up the team’s cap space. The summer of 1998 didn’t happen, for anyone. GM Jerry Krause saw the writing on the wall when most FAs signed with their old teams for more money in the truncated post-lockout offseason, and after talking up the 1999 offseason, he decided to make a few more cap-clearing moves and parlay that money (and two lottery picks) to the 2000 offseason.

Source:  ChicagoNow

As we can observe, the free agency route failed the post-Jordan Bulls.  Players obviously had no desire to come to Chicago despite the apparent available capital.  Therefore, what is there to ensure the same won’t happen to the Nets?  They’re off to a horrendous start, have historically been a well below average team and have put all their faith into a roster comprised of largely unproven young players.

However, the Nets do have two things in their favor.  First, it appears the long proposed move to Brooklyn will definitely happen.  Second, the Nets also have a new principal owner – Mikhail Prokhorov – one of the wealthiest men in the world.  Playing in the most dynamic sports city in American coupled with the deepest pockets can potentially bring in a top player or two.

They want a basketball team in Brooklyn – but not this one.

After the New Jersey Nets broke the record Wednesday night for starting an NBA season with the most consecutive losses – 18 – some borough sports fans had a message for owner Bruce Ratner as he tries to bring the team to Brooklyn: Start winning or don’t bother.

“I don’t want an 0-and-18 team coming to New York, especially to Brooklyn,” said Assane Ethols, 21, a Canarsie security guard. “It’s go hard or go home here.”

Source:  New York Daily News

It looks like a lot DOES ride on this season so let’s hope the current group starts playing better.

Houston, do we have a problem?  Perhaps.  This season, the Rockets will be starting the year without any star players on the court.  Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are, what else, taking another injury vacation.  Ron Artest left town for the greener pastures of Los Angeles.  So what can the beloved Rocket faithful expect from a team full of solid complimentary players and a bunch of unprovens?

John Hollinger predicts they’ll finish 9th in the Western Conference while ESPN analysts as a whole have them finishing around 10th.  Dave Berri of Wages of Win Journal thinks they have a good chance of finishing with over 40 wins and gives them a chance to make the playoffs.

Why are these NBA analysts so high on a team that seems to be lacking so much firepower?  Well, they’re believers in the rest of the roster.  The Rockets have a lot of excellent complimentary players in Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry and Luis Scola.  Specifically, these guys, coined ‘low usage high efficiency players’, all post above average Wins Produced by doing a lot of stuff outside of putting up huge scoring numbers.

Many of these analysts think they’ll be able to keep up similar production with a simple increase in minutes.  Herein lies the problem in my opinion.  Asking a few solid players to step up is probably sound.  Asking most of these low usage guys to become high usage guys?  I have a hard time believing it’s as simple as a linear equation.  They are going to have to spend more time on the court but produce AT LEAST at the same rate as prior years.  Don’t forget more than a few of them are also going to have to develop a high volume FG mentality.

When you remove both a McGrady and Ming, what happens?

Opposing defenses now don’t have to concentrate on the highly skilled offensive player(s).  All of a sudden, the complimentary guys become the focal point as they can’t pass off the ball anymore to the star to make something happen.  The onus is in Ariza’s, Scola’s or whomever’s hands to beat that shot clock.  Now, these players who are not adept at handling solid defensive pressure will be called on to make plays possession after possession.

To help illustrate this fact, I took a look at 2006-07 Rockets team?  Why?  They had a multitude of solid win producers like the current Rocket’s team, but more importantly, had 5 games in which both McGrady and Yao Ming missed.  Dikembe Mutombo, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Luther Head, Rafer Alston, Kirk Snyder and Juwan Howard were the 7 primary guys besides the two stars.  Based on their Wins Produced, they should have been close to an average team coming in with 37 wins.

Do you know what they did in those 5 games?  They shot a putrid 38.3% (150-392) from the field and posted an abysmal assists to turnover ratio (71 assists compared to 65 turnovers).  Since they were solid players, they were able to stay close in most of the games (avg loss of 7.2 points) and were only out-rebounded by 4.4 boards.  However, not to win a single game against squads like the 40-win Clippers, 32-win Portland or, my favorite, a 24-win Boston Celtic team?  Yikes!

This years Rocket’s main 7 (Ariza, Battier, Hayes, Landry, Scola, Lowry and Aaron Brooks) have a combined 36.2 wins based on last year’s statistics.  Sounds a lot like the 2006-07 group as they both have solid complimentary players but appear to lack at least a couple of proven scoring mentalities.

If preseason is any indicator, Rockets may indeed be in trouble as they put up a mediocre 4-4 record.  The team combined to shoot a respectable 44% (283-641) from the field but their assists (151) and turnovers (140) were pretty bad.  In addition, new team member, Trevor Ariza, saw his efficiency and rebounding go down from last season.

So far, through two games this season, the Rockets have managed one very fortunate win against the Warriors last night.  They needed every bit of the 12 of 26 shots from 3 point range to eek out a 1 point win.  Despite that peformance, they still have a dismal 41.9% overall field goal percentage on the young season.

Also, it can’t be oversimplified what consistent hardship and failure must do to one’s overall game after enjoying success the last several years.  Consistently putting up more shots than one’s accustomed to while becoming much less adept.    Less cheering/excitement for home games.  Local media outlets start talking about the lottery.  The overall lack of positive feelings have a good chance to eventually weigh on the psyche’s on most of the players during the course of 82 games.

I like Ball Don’t Lie’s prediction of a record of 37-45 which precludes Tracy making it back at some point.  This team will not have a chance on sniffing the playoffs unless Tracy McGrady shows a return to All-Star form in the majority of this season’s games.  Or I guess a young player like Aaron Brooks could try and don some wings and a halo too.

In competitive fantasy leagues, it’s never too early to start to identify potential sleepers for next season. Even though almost anything can change over the next few months, some players are already emerging as potential studs or breakout candidates for 2009-10.

The recipe for a potential sleeper is never the same. Sometimes it is true progression as a player, other times a trade or injury opens up minutes for a player. It can even be a truly unexplainable phenomenon. Whatever the reason, breakout players are essential to securing the ever-elusive hardware when playing against other knowledgeable managers.

Let’s break the potential sleepers into three groups: the guards, the forwards and the centers. We’ve already seen some of the guards.

Now, let’s take a look at the forwards.

Anthony Randolph – This summer’s worst kept secret, unfortunately. If you play in even a mildly competitive league, you’ve no doubt already heard all about Randolph.

So, is he all hype or is Randolph for real?

AR is legit. There is nothing not to like about this kid. He is a must have in most keeper and all dynasty formats. First, he has the numbers. From last season, his rookie season, his per-36 minute statistics were 15.9 points on .462/.716 percent shooting, 11.6 rebounds (4.1 offensive), 0.0 threes, 1.6 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.4 blocks with 2.4 turnovers.

Assuming no progression as a player and simply an increase in minutes (played only 17.9 minutes per game last season), Randolph becomes fantasy relevant. The defensive production to go with everything else is what really clues you in to Randolph’s potential fantasy value. And if you assume production gains as he develops as a player, Anthony becomes even more intriguing of an option.

Oh, and did I mention he was the youngest player in the league last season too?

When I try and decipher how rookies will develop in the future, I examine two major factors. First is skill, which covers both basketball skills and physical gifts. Randolph has both in spades and will continue to develop both aspects as he acclimates to the NBA and continues to fill out his ridiculous frame (7′3″ wingspan).

The second major factor that shapes how young players develop is work ethic. This is what really separates Randolph from other potential sleepers. Randolph had been working diligently to improve his game and get stronger this offseason. He has the drive of a winner that really sets him apart from the average player.

With all that being said, Randolph is a slam dunk, right?

Well, not exactly. Anthony plays for the NBA’s most eccentric coach, Don Nelson. Also know to fantasy managers as that son of a bitch. With Nellie being notoriously fickle, most managers have learned to never rule anything out when it comes to Coach Nelson, no matter how inane it sounds.

Corey Maggette at power forward or center? Sure, why not?

Some people are not buying the “hype” with Randolph but in the end the ingredients necessary for the recipe for success are all there. With Coach Nelson’s contract up after next season, Randolph will be freed soon enough (if not next season). Soon, everyone will be on the bandwagon. But for next season, if you want Randolph, you must reach for him. Chances are that someone else is buying what Randolph is selling and will be aggressively pursuing him next season.

For keeper formats of more than four keepers, Randolph will not slip out of the first round. In competitive redraft leagues, his average draft position so far this season is 68th overall (Buser Sports) so to lock him up he should be targeted in the 6th-7th rounds.

Don’t Sleep on Anthony Randolph.

Michael Beasley — Oh, how the mighty have fallen. After Beasley seemed to be pulling everything together at the end of last season, he quickly is challenging Crazy Pills Ron Artest as the Association’s biggest headcase (Stephon Marbury doesn’t count as he, as he himself recently pointed out, is not under contract by any team and therefor not technically in the league anymore). His recent Twitter/weed/depression episode has certainly called his focus into question (and for good reason).

But why were people calling Beasley a potential sleeper anyway? Dude was only good for 176th in per game value and 141st in cumulative value.

His post-All Star break splits were nice, if only for the increased efficiency; his actual production was more or less static. He went from shooting .455/.382/.768 before the All-Star Game to shooting .501/.462/.779 after the break (not to mention a dip in turnovers per game as well). The efficiency gains were what piqued the interest of fantasy managers and led many to begin calling Beasley a potential sleeper for next season.

Then weedgate hit. And the rest, like talk of Beasley being a potential sleeper should be, is history.

There are two main ways players respond to adversity in their lives. One, is by focusing all their emotions from the difficult situation into basketball, which actually enhances their play. This requires maturity and focus, both of which Beasley lacks. This is how the true legends of the game deal with diversity. It is the much ballyhooed “heart of a champion.”

The second response is to give up and wallow in the face of adversity. This is Beasley’s most likely response, if his short history in the league is any indicator. Next season is looking more and more likely to be a lost season for Beasley, as his personal issues look to affect his basketball production. Do yourself a favor and let someone else deal with the headache of owning Bongsley Beasley next season.

Kevin Love – To be perfectly honest, Love is not going to be the next Dwight Howard. But, he has been more or less underrated (or just plain overlooked in basketball Purgatory, aka Minnesota). What many people fail to realize is that Love is an excellent rebounder. Therein lies his true value and potential as a sleeper.

WARNING: a comparison between two players’ career statistics is going to be made but by no means is it endorsing the idea that these two players will have similar career paths. The comparison is to illustrate exactly how good of a rebounder Love is and will be in the future.

Look at Dwight Howard’s career statistics compared to Kevin Love’s career statistics (and by career I mean his rookie season).  Their career per-36 minute rebounding statistics are remarkably similar, with Love having the advantage on the offensive boards (4.8 to 3.6)! Not surprisingly, their rebounding rates are similar, which measures the percentage of total boards a player grabs while on the floor.

Howard is a player that everyone can agree is an excellent rebounder. The fact that Love’s rebounding statistics compare favorably to Superman’s rebounding statistics in his rookie season certainly bodes well for Love’s future both immediate and long-term.

As far as next season, an increase in minutes should be in order as the Timberwolves continue their rebuilding effort without having added significant pieces to their frontcourt. Love and fellow rebounding machine Al Jefferson are the foundations of Minnesota’s frountcourt next season and for the future.

Next season, Love should build upon his rookie season’s success and increase his fantasy value. As far as possible projections for his production, averaging 15.0 points on .466/.792 percent shooting, 10.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.5 steals, and 0.7 blocks with 1.8 turnovers is within the realm of possibility.

The closer Love can get his field goal percentage to fifty percent, the more likely he is to really solidify his fantasy value. After all, Love will probably never be prone to producing big time numbers in the defensive categories. But, he will give you about a double-double (think David Lee with better rebounding and worse field goal percentage) and hopefully over a block a game and just under a steal a game.

What’s not to well, uhh, love about Love next season.

Wilson Chandler – One of 2008’s hottest sleepers is back, with a vengence. Although Chandler had stretches of solid fantasy production last season, he never really pulled it all together as many prescient managers expected.

For those who don’t know, Wilson Chandler was drafted by the Knicks with the 23rd pick in the 2007 draft out of DePaul University. Chandler played most of his mintutes at the small forward position last season but also played significant minutes at the four for Coach Mike D’Antoni (he even logged minutes at the shooting guard and center positions!). At 6′8″ and 220 pounds, Chandler is undersized at the four, although D’Antoni has never been shy to play guys out of position.

If anyone on the Knicks’ roster is untouchable, it might be Chandler. He is the type of player that thrives in D’Antoni’s uptempo offensive system. He will also be entering his third season in the league, which has traditionally been a year where players take great strides in their production. And since he is still on his rookie contract, his salary situation is nice and does not impinge on the Knicks’ 2010 hopes.

What fantasy production does Chandler have to offer?

Take a look at his per-36 minute statistics from Chandler’s 2008-09 season. He averaged 15.6 points on .431/.328/.795 percent shooting, 1.4 threes, 5.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. He has some serious steal-block-three per game club potential and is an across the board contributor. The only strike against him could be his sub-par field goal percentage, which he will hopefully improve upon as he develops further.

Source: Basketball Free For All

Entering the much discussed third season in the NBA, with the Knicks’ roster substantially unchanged at this point, expect Chandler to be a vital player for Mike D’Antoni next season. He should live up to the potential that has drawn the attention of diligent fantasy managers since his rookie season.

Gerald Wallace — As always, I try and disclose my biases when relevant. Basketball Free For All maintains a strict policy of full disclosure. To that end, it should be said that I am a full-blown Gerald Wallace fan. I love his game, his hustle and his heart. I love just about everything about him. Keep that in mind.

Not a sleeper in the traditional sense, Wallace still should be able to outproduce his draft position (early ADP of 29th overall, again according to Buser Sports). Last season, Wallace’s line was good for 14th in per game and 21st in cumulative value.

Let’s take a trip down memory lane. Last season was the year that saw Wallace missed seven games after suffering a collapsed lung courtesy of Lakers’ center Andrew Bynum. Think about that for a second. The man had his lung punctured, which resulted in it collapsing, and he only missed seven games. This dude is a warrior in the truest of senses.

Make no mistake, you don’t get the nickname  “Crash” for nothing. But being downgraded beyond the mid-third round is ludicrous. When healthy, Wallace has proven early-second round production and is entering his prime (will be only 27 years old next season). If he can put together a fully healthy season along with efficient shooting, Wallace could sneak his way into the first round in terms of per game and cumulative production.

One thing is for sure, though. Owning Wallace is not for the faint of heart. His reckless abandon on the basketball court is why he produces at the level he does. It is also the reason he frequently ends up in the hospital.If you are the type of manager who invests themselves heavily in their fantasy players, it is probably wise for your well-being to avoid watching the Bobcats play next season if you end up snagging G-Wall.

With the guards and forwards down, only the centers remain.

People are naturally more comfortable with the familiar. Whether it be taking the same route to work every morning or watching your favorite movie fifty times, people like things to be predictable. I would have to guess that NBA players have the same comfort levels that we possessors of average athletic ability hold as well. They are not super heroes or somehow above the rest of us (although sometimes the media and the public’s perception points to this).

So why does it seem like there is such a lack of true loyalty among NBA players to one’s franchise, fans and city?

There used to be true loyalty among players in the league years ago. Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul Jabaar, Tim Duncan and Larry Bird all won multiple championships with one team. They stayed around through free agency and rebuilding periods and they got it done for their respective teams time and time again. Today it seems that there isn’t quite the same sense of devotion.

Players are too quick to bolt for a rival team if the pasture is greener on the other side (greener more often than not means more money). Think about all of the time, resources and effort a team has to put into a player that it views as the future of the franchise. The team is completely invested in the player from the scouting period, to the point when they sign their contract. Teams want that player to feel comfortable and at home in their city. They should feel important and desired and that is why NBA teams pull out all the stops when it comes to courting and retaining a franchise player.

Too often today teams and their loyal fans are being spurned by the same athletes they once cheered for. Take Hedo Turkoglu for example. After leading his Orlando Magic all the way to the franchise’s best season and a trip to the Finals, what does Hedo do in the off season? He leaves his championship caliber team and signs a deal (tentative) with the Toronto Raptors.

Why leave a team that obviously wants him and one that is in much better position to contend for a title than Toronto? It has to be money. The almighty dollar, especially in today’s economy, seems to have more pull than ever.

Ben Gordon has spent his entire career with the Chicago Bulls. After reportedly rejecting a 5 year $50 million deal from Chicago last season, he signed with the Pistons for 5 years and $55 million. Why not stay with the team that drafted you and allowed you to showcase your unique skill set instead of acting like a mercenary and leaving for which ever squad can pay you only a few million more?  I do realize it is disgusting and totally ridiculous to say “only a few million more,” but for an NBA player and their tax bracket it is only a drop in the bucket.

Trevor Ariza, after winning it all with the Lakers this year, bolts for Houston. Ron Artest took the Rockets farther in the playoffs than they had been in years. After Yao Ming went down, the Rockets were in need of someone to step in and take control of the young cast of talented role players they had assembled. Why not offer to make Artest one of your franchise cornerstones? Well you can’t if he signs with the Lakers, which turned out to be the case.

Dwayne Wade has been in the news recently talking about his future in Miami, or potential lack thereof. Wade basically stated that he would like to hold off on signing a multi-year extension with the Heat until he knows that they are working to put themselves in position to win a championship. Wade wants to make sure he is playing for a team that can contend for a title every year and is not just content to make the playoffs as a fifth seed.

I completely get this. Wade is entering the prime of his career, he can completely dominate a game and he wants to make sure his skills aren’t wasted on an average team. This guy is a winner and I respect his stance, but I am hoping he stays in Miami and wins another ring or two. It would be nice to see that level of commitment to a team that he once led to a championship and now has the opportunity to build a dynasty with. That is assuming the Heat do their part and bring in some talent.

With a number of the league’s brightest stars (Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar’e Stoudemire, for example) potentially going into free agency next season where will their loyalties fall? Will it be with their currnet team or will they follow the dollar to another city and fan base? I can only hope to see some of these players stay with the current teams and build a legacy in the tradition of some of the games biggest stars of years past.

After years of humiliating first round playoff losses, the Houston Rockets finally made it to the Western Conference semifinals where they took the Lakers to seven games. The team and its fans had reason to be optimistic about heading into next season.

The Rockets had become a venerable force in the Western Conference and they shook off the “they can’t get out of the first round” stigma. It seemed as though their strategy had worked. They refused to submit to rebuilding in years past and continued to built around a core of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. But now it appears they may be without their All-Star center for an extended period of time.

The Rockets have privately told league peers it could be a full season before Yao might be able to return to basketball. Multiple league executives, officials close to Yao and two doctors with knowledge of the diagnoses are describing a troubling re-fracture of his navicular bone. Three pins were inserted a year ago, but the foot cracked in the playoffs and isn’t healing.

Source: Yahoo! Sports

This is devastating news for the Rockets, who view Yao as the face of the franchise and the main building block with which they planned to move forward. Now it seems highly possible that Yao may have played his last game in Houston. He simply is not able to stay on the court an entire season. Think about that for a second, and let the signifcance fully set in.

Yao managed to play in 77 games this season after missing a combined 86 games in the previous three seasons. It looked as though he had finally broken his injury curse when he was sidelined with the most recent foot injury during the Lakers playoff series. Now with word that the foot injury isn’t healing and the possibility of Yao missing yet another season, what can the Rockets do?

They have been competitive with Yao out before but this is not a team that can pretend to make a championship push with Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry holding down the front court. Tracy McGrady isn’t the athlete and superstar he once was and the team has already conceded that he is no longer their go-to-guy heading forward. The Rockets have been actively shopping McGrady, whose massive $22 million expiring contract will be attractive to some teams.

Assuming McGrady is at best in his last year in Houston and Yao is out for the 2009-2010 season, the Rockets are in dire straights. They now have to decide if they will continue to wait for Yao’s foot or if they will move in another direction and rid themselves of Ming and all his ailments.

Rebuilding is a logical conclusion. In my opinion it is the only option the Rockets have at this point. Cut your loses and start over. Yao is not the type of player you can expect to ride all the way to a championship. True: he is an extremely gifted 7 foot 6 inch completely dominating force in the paint. He can block shots, grab rebounds, defend and is one of the best free throw shooters on the team.

One minor detail… he is completely made of glass. Those fragile bones in his feet keep on breaking every season because they are under so much stress (7′6″ and 310 pounds). Yao may be great, but his extreme penchant for injuries limits what he can offer the Rockets.

They have Ron Artest (if they can re-sign him), Scola and Aaron Brooks to build around. They have some recent draft picks Chase Budinger and Jermaine Taylor to help offensively. Beyond that, the Rockets really are at square one. For a team that showed so much resilience to the glut of injuries that always seemed to be lurking around the corner, Yao’s most recent one may be the fatal fracture to a team that had so much potential.

With the 2008-09 season officially in the rearview mirror, what else is there to do but look ahead to next season?

One of the most exciting and surprising teams of the 2008-09 season, the Houston Rockets, have finally gotten the one and done  playoff exit off of their collective backs (with Tracy McGrady being the notable exception). With the confidence of making it to the second round and pushing the NBA champion Lakers to the limit, the Rockets are looking ahead to next season. Had Yao Ming not fractured his foot, the Rockets may have advanced to the face the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals.

This, of course, begs the questions of whether the Rockets are better without T-Mac and what role will McGrady play for the Rockets next season?

Let’s look at what McGrady has gone through since being shut down in mid-February. Since being shut down last season, McGrady has undergone two surgeries:

Houston Rockets guard Tracy McGrady is recovering from arthroscopic left shoulder surgery, team officials said Saturday.

McGrady underwent the procedure Friday at an undisclosed location to end the discomfort he experienced in the last two seasons.

The 6-foot-8 inch McGrady was shut down Feb. 11 because of a knee injury before the Rockets qualified for the NBA playoffs. General Manager Daryl Morey told the Houston Chronicle reported the procedure, which followed earlier microfracture knee surgery, will allow more time for McGrady to bounce back.

“It is not an issue that would keep him longer than the other rehab,” Morey said. “They cleaned up the shoulder. It is something we talked about for awhile and they had some time now.”

Source: United Press International

With the shoulder and knee surgeries complete, McGrady hopes to be as close to healthy as he can possibly get. Coming off a season that saw him play in only 35 games (a career low in twelve seasons in the league), there have been reports this summer of McGrady training extremely hard already, which bodes well for him both in reality and fantasy.

I saw T Mac in Chicago at Tim Grover’s gym getting in some serious summer work. Haven’t seen him there before. Must be a contract year. I’d expect him to be in great shape and playing much better next year.

Source: ESPN’s Chad Ford

As mentioned in the above quote, Tracy McGrady is in fact entering a contract year. And this just isn’t any old contract year for the injury-prone star player. He is turning thirty years old next season and has not exactly known for being a model of health in his twelve seasons in the NBA. So this may be T-Mac’s last chance to secure a large contract for himself as a professional basketball player. Thus, McGrady has an extemely strong financial incentive to prove that he still deserves to start in the NBA and that he can be healthy and contribute successfully to a winning team.

So McGrady seems to be getting himself in shape to play and has a very strong (financial) incentive to play his best basketball of his life. But did last season prove that the Rockets better with or without McGrady?

To examine the most complete picture of McGrady’s effect on the Rockets, refer to his On/Off court numbers from 82games. The two numbers that stand out to me are offensive and defensive efficiency. These two measures of efficiency control the distorting effect of pace on statistics and provides a baseline with which to measure all teams/players against: points per 100 possessions.

Offensively, the Rockets were worse with McGrady on the floor (108.3 points/100 possessions) than with him on the bench (110.1/100). This is a net loss of -1.8 points per 100 possessions with McGrady on the floor. Defensively, the Rockets were also worse with McGrady on the floor (105.2/100) than with him on the bench (104.9/100). This nets the Houston -2.1 points per 100 possessions. There are other statistics that support the conclusion that the Rockets are better without McGrady (Rockets winning percentage with and without T-Mac, for example) but offensive and defensive efficiency statistics are the most damning.

McGrady’s effect on the Rockets team reminds me in some ways to Allen Iverson’s role on the Detroit Pistons last season. Granted, Iverson’s effect was much more negative and much more powerful (in a bad way) than McGrady’s effect on the Rockets. The similarities can be seen in their career statistics: both are high volume, low efficiency scorers that can be exploited on the defensive end. The results are the same in that both players erode team chemistry through questionable leadership, defensive lapses and supreme ball-hoggery.

It appears then that the Rockets are actually better without McGrady. If that is the case, what role will he play for them next seaon?

Ironically, McGrady’s role on this Rockets team is of the guy that is most likely to be traded. It’s addition by subtraction in its simplest form. T-Mac’s $23 million expiring contract is a lucrative prize in these oh so tough economic times. This large expiring contract coincidentally comes off the books in the much-heralded Summer of Lebron, freeing up lots of cash that can be thrown at the strong free agent class of 2010.

With the Rockets franchise known for being versed in statistics, the fact that the team is better off without McGrady is certainly not lost on the front office. The front office has also shown a willingness to make deals, pulling the trigger on the deal to acquire Ron Artest from the Sacramento Kings before the 2008-09 season and also shipping Rafer Alston out of town in a three team deal at the trade deadline. The Houston management is not gun shy when it comes to a willingness to shake up their roster.

McGrady’s value to the Rockets next season is not what he can produce on the court but rather what his coveted $23 million expiring contract can bring in salary relief and young talent.