Basketball Free For All

Everyone ready for the home stretch?  We’ve got 3 weeks left before most fantasy playoffs begin in Week 22.  However, don’t view this as a time to coast as it could be more important than ever to pay attention to your teams.  Whether you’re fighting to make the playoffs or simply looking to make those final tweaks to bring home a championship, the moves you make now could potentially decide your entire seasons.  So FOCUS! 

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The San Antonio Spurs are struggling this season. For a franchise that has been synonymous with winning over the past decade, the Spurs are having a disappointing season despite being 17-11 (.607 W-L%) and very much in the playoff mix. Their 33 year old franchise player, Tim Duncan, is still putting up numbers consistent with his career averages while also posting a career high in free throw percentage. However, being a middle of the pack playoff team is not a successful season for a team that has won four out of the last eleven championships.

Throughout these four championship seasons, there have been two constants: the aforementioned once-in-a-decade franchise player, Tim Duncan, and the second best active head coach in the NBA, Gregg Popovich. It is impossible to talk about either one of these two mythical figures in isolation, as their careers are so intertwined with Pop’s first full season as head coach of the Spurs being Duncan’s rookie season. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Pop and Duncan retire at the same time (2011 at the earliest, although 2012 is more realistic).

Each of the Spurs’ four championships was predicated on their defensive prowess, as orchestrated by Pop and anchored by Duncan. Everything else is built around supporting stars (Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili now; Sean Elliott and David Robinson earlier) and role players (Antonio McDyess and Roger Mason now; Bruce Bowen and Robert Horry earlier). The Spurs’ genius lies in blending the franchise player, supporting stars and role players together into a defensive juggernaut and an above-average offensive team.

Take a look at the following table, which looks at all of the Duncan-led Spurs. It compares the Spurs’ offense (O-Rating, or points scored per 100 possessions), defense (D-Rating, or points allowed per 100 possessions) and the Differential between the two (O-Rating minus D-Rating equals Differential; the higher the positive number the better). The table also lists the average O-Rating/D-Rating for each season, as it varies from year to year, and the individual rankings for each O-Rating and D-Rating.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

* Championship season
~ Lockout-shortened season

Perusing the chart, the defensive numbers jump off the page. They were a top five defensive team in every season leading up to this year with Duncan. This season, the Spurs have dropped to 14th overall, which is the first time a Duncan era Spurs team has been an average defensive team instead of an elite defensive team. On the offensive side of things, the Spurs have been an average offensive team only finishing in the top five once (it will be twice if the Spurs continue to play at this exact level all season).

The Spurs’ philosophy has always been that an average offense is fine as long as the defense is elite, which leads to a high differential. Notice that if you sort the chart descending according to differential three of the Spurs’ four championships cluster near the top? It is most certainly not a coincidence.

Now take a look at the Spurs’ current season, which can be referred to as their Bizarro Season. This season, the formula for the Spurs has been flipped on it’s head, with the Spurs being a top five offensive team and average defensive team. Notice that the Spurs still have a decent positive differential but remember that the fundamental formula for this Spurs team has changed somewhat radically from all previous Duncan-led Spurs.

What is responsible for this flipping of the proverbial script?

Let’s look at the personnel turnover from last season to this season to see which players were holdovers, which players were subtracted and which players were added.

Holdovers: Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Roger Mason, Matt Bonner, George Hill, Michael Finley

In this group, we have our franchise player, supporting stars and four of the Spurs’ key role players from last season. Hill has solidified his role as backup point guard and efficient scorer off the bench. Mason has stepped in as the third string point guard and has also filled the void left by Big Shot Rob. Finley’s role this season has been drastically reduced (18.3 minutes per game), although he can fill in at either the two or three if injuries should require it. Bonner plays the role of the stretch four, spotting up for threes in the corners and looking to clean the glass.

Subtracted: Kurt Thomas, Ime Udoka, Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, Drew Gooden, Jacque Vaughn

This group is all role players, almost all of which are above average to excellent defenders, either on the perimeter or in the post. Thomas is the consummate professional who plays extremely smart post defense and is an excellent role model for younger bigs. Oberto is like a watered down version of Thomas; together they represent a large exodus of post defense and veteran savvy. Gooden was more of an offensive-focused big man than Kurt or Fabricio but is still an average defender as well. Bowen is the quintessential Spurs perimeter defender, although it was clear he had lost a step last season. Udoka was also a solid defender and was relatively versatile, as he was able to guard the perimeter or the post. Finally, Vaughn was a decent defender at the point and was a solid fill-in to spell Parker off the bench. In all, the Spurs lost a ton of defensive minded role players.

Added: Richard Jefferson, DeJuan Blair, Antonio McDyess, Keith Bogans, Theo Ratliff

The Spurs gained one borderline supporting star/role player and four other role players to try and fill the void left by the outgoing players. R-Jeff has the physical skill-set to be a lock-down defender, although he has traditionally made his name through his offense. Blair is a promising rookie, who will be a destructive force on the glass for his career. However, he is still young and plays for Popovich, who is hesitant to play rookies big minutes. Bogans has started for the Spurs and is being groomed to take over for Bowen, locking his man down on defense and spotting up for the corner three and making opposing defenses pay for doubling off of him. Ratliff and McDyess were brought in on minimum contracts to man the paint and bring the veteran savvy that Kurt and Fabricio Oberto provided.

Let’s run down the list one more time to look for changes. Same coach (Pop). Same franchise player (Duncan). Same supporting stars (Parker and Manu). No difference here. But when you examine role players, here is where big changes start to become apparent. They have replaced departed perimeter defenders (Udoka, Bowen) with fresh perimeter defenders (Jefferson, Bogans). They have replaced post defenders (Thomas, Oberto, Gooden) with fresh post defenders (McDyess, Ratliff, Blair).

However, just swapping these players out has not been as seamless as a transition as the Spurs front office and other observers probably expected. Something was lost in translation and the Spurs’ defense has stumbled out of the gates. Recently, Coach Popovich summed up what was lost very nicely.

Still, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich remains bullish on the team’s offseason investments. He continues to urge patience with his newcomers as they adjust to their new team, and their new team adjusts to them.

“What I’m learning is we lost more corporate knowledge than I thought,” said Popovich, whose team is 13-10 after a 2-1 Western road trip. “It’s taken a little bit more time than I thought to get everybody on the same page.”

Source: San Antonio Express-News

The corporate knowledge that Pop is talking about above is what was lost. The replacement players are all capable individual defenders but have no experience playing in the Spurs defensive system. Spurs defense is position defense that demands crisp defensive rotations that can only be effective when executed as a unit. If any of the five men on the floor are out of sync then the entire defense crumbles and opposing teams can take advantage of weaknesses. The study of this season’s Spurs illustrates not only the importance of role players but also the importance of having continuity with your role players from season-to-season.

As a die-hard Suns fan, I’ve learned one lesson over the years when dealing with the San Antonio Spurs: never under any circumstances underestimate them or count them out. As history has shown, Popovich is a brilliant coach and is one man that is capable of rising to the challenge of getting his team to play to the best of their abilities, especially on the defensive end of the floor. If Pop and Duncan can get their team firing on all cylinders in time for the Playoffs, San Antonio is going to be a very difficult matchup for anyone in the Western Conference.

Coming into this NBA season, the New Jersey Net’s expectations were low.  However, no one expected them to challenge ineptitude of historic proportions.  The Nets recent loss to the Dallas Mavericks resulted in being associated with the distinct dishonor of the worst start by any franchise in NBA history.  Worse than any expansion team or some historical bad franchise like the Clippers.  Even though they’ve recently broken through with a win, will putting their worst leg(s) forward hurt the team beyond this season?

Just How Bad Have Things Been?

To put it bluntly, the Nets have been awful.  They have the worst offensive rating (94.7), the worst points per game (87.60), the worst FG% (41.0) and the worst assists (16.25).  Most of their losses haven’t even been close as their point differential stands a little over 10 points per game (only Minnesota is worse).

To be fair, at one point they only had one original starter available for a period of time.  Devin Harris, Yi Jianlian, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Courtney Lee have all missed time for various aliments.  One of these players, CDR, was the first NBA player infected with the swine flu.  Prior to their first win against Charlotte, this foursome had missed 34 games out of a possible 72.  Don’t forget that it takes time to get back into the swing of things such as chemistry and conditioning.

Can’t also discount they’ve had some key role players miss the majority of the season:  Tony Battie, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes and Eduardo Najera.  Without a solid bench, it’s no wonder this patchwork team has been tragic against the rest of the NBA.  The New Jersey Nets probably wish they had as many healthy legs as their cheerleaders.

Did Management Stoke the Fire?

Coming into the season, the Nets had no established veterans – star or even borderline.  Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter had all been traded away.  However, a number of followers and writers proclaimed this was a good thing.  New Jersey had some promising young talent including a potentially fantastic PG and C.  More importantly, they would have about 25 million in available cap space for 2010.  As you’re probably aware, there are some fantastic names that may be available in free agency including Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire.

There does lie a problem with this thinking – it’s a year away.  For 2009, most experts predicted they’d finish at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.  Nothing new here as I’m sure most of us felt the same.  With obvious turmoil looming, why then was Lawrence Frank fired?

I guess it’s Lawrence’s fault that they wanted to go young and [clear] cap space and that everybody got hurt,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said Sunday night, before his team beat another one that is dangerously walking the 2010 tightrope, the Knicks.  “Maybe he was banging them up in practice, taking a baseball bat to them or something.  I just know that with the lineups he’s had to put on the floor, I don’t think any coach would’ve done anything better than he’s done.”

Source:  CBS Sports

Pretty hard to disagree with Stan’s assessment when considering the roster and all the injuries they’ve had to deal with thusfar.  However, were there issues going on out of the public eye?  Apparently, yes.

Sources said Nets management had come to believe that Frank had lost much of the team, a fact that has played out in losses to Denver and Sacramento in the past week. Once the Nets played so poorly against the Kings – believed to be the most winnable game on the trip – management decided it could no longer go on with Frank as coach.

Despite the return of point guard Devin Harris and shooting guard Courtney Lee, the Nets have played long stretches of uninspired basketball. “Most of the guys have tuned him out,” one source with direct knowledge of the locker room environment said. “This isn’t all Lawrence’s fault, but everyone knows that this can’t go on anymore.”

Source: Adrian Wojnarowski

Beat writers close to the Nets also observed that Frank and Devin Harris were not seeing eye to eye.

“In the times I’ve been here, I’ve been so (angry) because of a lack of effort,” Frank said last week. “But these guys are giving virtually everything they’ve got.”

But they didn’t give him the effort lately and he had to go. Now, the next coach will have to coax more team play out of Devin Harris, who had problems with Frank’s controlling style and has gained the reputation of being a solo act.

“Last year we had Vince Carter and he was a positive influence on the young guys,” said one team official. “But he’s not here, and it hurts because the coach and point guard are not on the same page.”

Source:  Mitch Lawrence

Consequently, it’s not surprising the Nets let Frank go.  At least, they fired him before they set the all-time record so that his name wouldn’t have to be associated with it.

Therefore, on the surface, it would seem they’ve made the correct moves.  There is one thing still bothering me though.  Did they consider the consequences if this team loses too many games?

Will a really bad record have long term effects?

We’ll examine two aspects to gauge possible long term affect:

1) How historically poor teams fare with rosters primarily consisting of talented youth in following years.

2) How many big time free agents signed with historically bad teams in following seasons.

1) First, we’ll examine how promising teams reacted to severely disappointing seasons.  Specifically, we’ll look at the 1993-94 Dallas Mavericks, 1999-00 Chicago Bulls and the 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers.  These teams were chosen because they were all in the midst of serious rebuilding with promising youth with a significant stretch of poor play.

The 1993-94 Mavericks team finished with a 13-69 record, but they were best known for posting a 2-39 record (OUCH) through the midpoint of the season.  The team wasn’t completely devoid of talent as they had two promising but young 19 point scorers in Jim Jackson and Jamal Mashburn.  So how dire did it get?

You hear about it and read about it, but words cannot really describe the hopelessness down here. At one point last night, the Dallas Mavericks called a 20-second timeout and spent a good 15 seconds trudging back to the huddle, defeated.

At courtside, owner Donald Carter sat in his hideous shirt and his jeans and his 10-gallon hat, cheering his team wildly while it was 15 down. The latest news? Jimmy Jackson says he’ll never, ever, EVER sign with the Mavs, no matter how many faxes they send.

Source:  Encyclopedia.com

Well Jim ended up staying (contracts will do that to you), but the Mavericks continued to flounder by averaging close to a 27-55 record the next 4 years.  This is impressive despite drafting win-producer Jason Kidd.  It seemed that the 3 J’s were destined to be part of a great future, but this wasn’t the case.  In 1996-97, all three were traded away as the team decided to go in a new direction under Don Nelson.

The 1999-00 Chicago Bulls finished with a 17-65 record, a few seasons removed from the Jordan era.  The team did have some promising rookies in Elton Brand and Ron Artest while bringing in John Starks and Bruce Bowen after trading away Toni Kukoc during the season.  The following season the Bulls drafted/acquired Brad Miller, Jamal Crawford, Marcus Fizer and Ron Mercer, but this time they won only 15 games including losing a franchise worst 21 straight games on the road.

Overall, the promise never amounted to anything as the team averaged a 22-60 during the four year stretch after the 1999-2000 season.  The overriding theme seemed to be concentrating on youth without enough experience as they fell into a pattern gambling on youth that failed to pan out including Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler and Jay Williams.

The 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers were able to collect some talent after two horrendous years.  However, Lamar Odom, Derek Anderson, Maurice Taylor and Michael Olowokandi only managed 15 wins while starting the season with a then NBA record of 17 straight losses.

On paper, this team’s untapped talent and balance — four players averaging more than 13 points per game, and arguably the largest collection of “he’s-got-great-upside” players — belies its results.

Source: NBA.com

In the following years, they garnered an impressive amount of talent on paper: Darius Miles, Quentin Richardson, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand and Andre Miller.  Guess what, all these young guys managed to contribute an average W/L record of 31-51 the following four years.

Now, there have been some deviations from the norm when franchises have decided to completely entrust their future in youth.  Namely, the Portland Trail Blazers come to mind.  After blowing up the Jail Blazers and some troubling players the next few years, they appear to be ready to challenge the league’s best for years to come.  However, it would appear it takes a special bunch of players like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge among others to make it happen.

Therefore, where does this leave the current Nets?  Coming into this year, there were no illusions, but there was hope that the Nets had put together a solid young core.  However, Dave Berri of The Wages of Win Journal made an interesting analysis of the Net’s franchise.  Basically, when Jason Kidd has not been on their team, they’ve been a bad team and his predictions don’t have anything changing that.

In addition, their terrible start is already affecting their morale:

“We don’t have any heart,” Chris Douglas-Roberts, the second-year guard, said. “It’s like we’re laying down. Weak. It’s a sign of weakness.”

Douglas-Roberts said the word was out on his team: “All you got to do is come out, punch them in the mouth and they’ll give up and run with their tail between their legs.”

Although the Nets were decimated by injuries early in the streak, they are nearly back to whole. Yet the fight they briefly showed in close defeats in early November is nonexistent.

“The spirit’s been broken a little bit,” said guard Devin Harris, the Nets’ lone All-Star.

Source:  New York Times

Uh-oh – hopefully, this is just a fleeting attitude and the Nets can put together a lot of solid performances.  Otherwise, you’ve got to believe they’ll continue to be tested mentally as other historically bad teams and it will take all their effort to stay together and focused on a common goal.

2) A second method of attempting to change years of bad fortune is through free agency.  A key signing or two could significantly change a team’s outlook.  However, there are multiple obstacles to this theory.  Poorly performing teams seem to have trouble acquiring or keeping top talent.

Let’s look at the top 30 players by salary (all over $14M). 15 of them are on teams that had over a .600 win% (50+ wins), while just 3 of them are on sub-.400 teams. In other words, the most successful teams employed 1.67 of these elite players on average, while the worst teams employed just 0.375 elite players.

Source: Hawkonomics

These statistics were compiled from last year’s payroll and performance.  One can gleam two likely scenarios for this disparity.  One, top players usually have choices in their destination; thus, they choose to play for a winning team that gives them a shot for a championship.  Two, poor performing teams usually suffer from the lack of capital necessary to sign major free agents.  Media outlets aren’t interested to pay top dollar to carry broadcasts while businesses and fans aren’t interested in sinking money for tickets, suites and other endeavors.

In one of the other historically bad teams we analyzed, the Chicago Bulls attempted to go the free agency route:

Remember, the summer of 2000 was supposed to be it. Actually, scratch that, Chicago had big designs on the summer of 1999, if we’re honest. And, if we’re to be completely accurate, the summer of 1998 was supposed to see all sorts of free agents flock to Chicago to eat up the team’s cap space. The summer of 1998 didn’t happen, for anyone. GM Jerry Krause saw the writing on the wall when most FAs signed with their old teams for more money in the truncated post-lockout offseason, and after talking up the 1999 offseason, he decided to make a few more cap-clearing moves and parlay that money (and two lottery picks) to the 2000 offseason.

Source:  ChicagoNow

As we can observe, the free agency route failed the post-Jordan Bulls.  Players obviously had no desire to come to Chicago despite the apparent available capital.  Therefore, what is there to ensure the same won’t happen to the Nets?  They’re off to a horrendous start, have historically been a well below average team and have put all their faith into a roster comprised of largely unproven young players.

However, the Nets do have two things in their favor.  First, it appears the long proposed move to Brooklyn will definitely happen.  Second, the Nets also have a new principal owner – Mikhail Prokhorov – one of the wealthiest men in the world.  Playing in the most dynamic sports city in American coupled with the deepest pockets can potentially bring in a top player or two.

They want a basketball team in Brooklyn – but not this one.

After the New Jersey Nets broke the record Wednesday night for starting an NBA season with the most consecutive losses – 18 – some borough sports fans had a message for owner Bruce Ratner as he tries to bring the team to Brooklyn: Start winning or don’t bother.

“I don’t want an 0-and-18 team coming to New York, especially to Brooklyn,” said Assane Ethols, 21, a Canarsie security guard. “It’s go hard or go home here.”

Source:  New York Daily News

It looks like a lot DOES ride on this season so let’s hope the current group starts playing better.

There’s no denying that the San Antonio Spurs have been one of the most successful franchises in the last decade, compiling four championships in a span of ten years. The only other team to do that recently accomplished the feat this past season and featured some guy named Kobe.

But when talking fantasy, the Spurs are no juggernaut. Let’s face it –- if you’re drafting a fantasy team this year and you take a Spur, chances are his last name is Duncan, Parker or Ginobili.

However, that may all change next season due to several moves the Spurs have made that have put the words fantasy relevant back into the same sentence as San Antonio Spurs. One newly acquired Spur in particular has a good chance to exceed his current average draft position. What may surprise you though, is that this Spur isn’t named Richard Jefferson.

Try Antonio McDyess.

The Spurs have always had a player or two outside of the Big Three that dabbles with fantasy relevance each season. For example, Matt Bonner (no, that was not a typo) or Roger Mason both had fantasy value through several stretches last year. This year, it’s McDyess that stands to gain fantasy relevance by a simple formula — less is more.

Last season as a starter in 30 games with the Detroit Pistons, McDyess averaged 12.1 points on .514/.775 percent shooting, 11.0 boards, 1.6 assists, 0.6 assists, 1.2 blocks and 0.9 turnovers per game. But he did so playing close to 35 minutes a game. Sports writers, fantasy gurus and managers alike were all waiting to see the eventual break down of Antonio McDyess.

Fortunately for McDyess (and Spurs fans), the break down never came –- at least, not physically. It was more like he just ran out of gas. By the time the Pistons reached their first round playoff matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers, McDyess was unable to reach the level of play he did during the month of March, when he had a string of ten double digit scoring games in a row.

Unfortunately for the Pistons, he also played the most minutes of his season during that same stretch — four games of 41 minutes plus, including a marathon 51 minute effort against the Houston Rockets. And the Pistons lost, by the way.

Ouch.

Once the playoffs started, the Cavs easily clamped down on McDyess, allowing him only 26 points total through the first three games. To put things into perspective, McDyess scored 26 points in the Pistons’ game four loss alone. With that loss to the Cavaliers, the 2008-09 Pistons were swept into the history books.

Hey Antonio: want a take-back on the decision to negotiate a buyout with Denver to return to Detroit?

However, Dyess’s situation in San Antonio is better than it could be anywhere else. As a Spur, he could start at either the four or the five alongside Duncan. Theo Ratliff and Matt Bonner aren’t fantastic coming off the bench, but they can provide enough of that ever so important rest for a savvy vet like McDyess.

And with Gregg Popovich being the one head coach notorious for setting his rotations in stone (well, more or less), McDyess could see a steady run of 25-27 minute games, easily a work-load he could handle at this stage in his career.

And with those minutes, expect quality stats, especially in rebounding, blocks and field goal percentage. A line of 8.8 points and 8.2 rebounds on over fifty percent shooting from the field and low turnovers would be a safe bet with 26 minutes per game. Because the Big Three carry the primary offensive load, Mcdyess would be allowed to simply focus on boards and defense –- so it’s very possible his 1.2 blocks remain steady and his field goal percentage rises as a result of getting easy looks and put-backs.

If everything breaks just right, you’re looking at a very nice late round flier in standard leagues, or a solid late round value pick in deeper ones. Currently, McDyess’s Buser Sports average draft position is 147 and his Yahoo! O-rank is 150. This puts his preseason value at around the 13th round in a standard 12-team league.

But (there is always a “but” somewhere, right?), keep an eye on McDyess during training camp and the preseason. The Spurs have some youth in their ranks that they are very high about including DeJuan “I don’t need no stinking ACL’s!” Blair and Ian Mahinmi.

All joking aside, Mahinmi has shown flashes of athleticism, which the Spurs seriously lack in their front court. As a rookie, Blair has enough motivation after being snubbed in the first round of the 2009 NBA Draft to last a lifetime. Let’s just hope his medical miracles of knees can last as long as his will.

Coach Pop and the Spurs have made it no secret that they intend to play these two young big men next season. What will be of concern is whether they cut into those quality minutes McDyess was acquired to play. Training camp and the preseason should give us a better idea, although one must be careful not to read to deeply into preseason games.

But if all indications are correct and McDyess starts alongside Duncan and his minutes per game hit that magic number of 26 or more, it’s very possible ‘Dyess meets or exceeds expectations if drafted after the twelfth round.

Picking up Antonio McDyess in the later rounds of your draft could yield solid dividends from your third or fourth power forward or center, especially if you’re looking for a player to give you quality stats in limited minutes. He may not give you top 100 returns, but by the time the season starts, his average draft position could continue to plummet, making Antonio McDyess a true Sleeper in Seattle San Antonio.

Mock drafts often seem like such pointless endeavors. The minute a team trades up or down, the sanctity of the entire mock has been violated. And this year, it is almost a guarantee that there will be movement on Thursday with many teams more focused on shedding salary instead of trying to improve. So instead of trying to predict that which cannot be predicted, let’s take a look at last year’s draft.

How will the class of 2008 be remembered when compared against the greatest classes of all time? 2003? 1996? 1984? One year later and the draft class of 2008 is looking very strong but definitely has a long ways to go before being mentioned in the same sentence as the aforementioned draft classes.

2008 NBA Draft

1. Derrick Rose
2. Michael Beasley
3. O.J. Mayo
4. Russell Westbrook
5. Kevin Love
6. Danilo Gallinari
7. Eric Gordon
8. Joe Alexander
9. D.J. Augustin
10. Brook Lopes
11. Jerryd Bayless
12. Jason Thompson
13. Brandon Rush
14. Anthony Randolph
15. Robin Lopez
16. Marreese Speights
17. Roy Hibbert
18. JaVale McGee
19. J.J. Hickson
20. Alexis Ajinca
21. Ryan Anderson
22. Courtney Lee
23. Kosta Koufas
24. Serge Ibaka
25. Nicolas Batum
26. George Hill
27. Darrell Arthur
28. Donte Greene
29. DJ White
30. JR Giddens

Second round notables: Mario Chalmers (#34), DeAndre Jordan (#35), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (#37), Chris Douglas-Roberts (#40), Sean Singletary (#42), Goran Dragic (#45), Bill Walker (#47), Mike Taylor (#55).

Besides a few head turners, the first round is stacked from top to bottom with guys who made an immediate impact in the NBA. That is a rare phenomenon in draft history. Looking back one year later we start to see which players might end up being busts and which players might end up being steals.

Potential Busts

As far as biggest busts (so far) of the 2008 NBA Draft, both Danilo Gallinari or Joe Alexander are making strong cases to be considered 2008’s top bottom dog. While it is clearly too early to be writing their professional basketball obituaries, both players are hindered by their high draft position (6th and 8th overall, respectively). Gallinari should probably be considered the second biggest bust after Alexander for two reasons.

First, Gallinari had legitimate medical reasons for not performing well in his rookie season (reoccurring back injury). With the back injury almost totally behind him, Gallinari now has to prove that he should not be considered a bust and that he belongs in the league. He has to take those flashes of brilliance he has shown on the court and turn them into consistent production. And second, Gallinari has an amazing nickname: The Rooster. If that doesn’t convince you that Joe Alexander should be considered a bigger bust, I don’t know what will.

Joe Alexander, on the other hand, does not have such convenient excuses. If you look at Alexander’s stats by position, he was clearly outplayed by his his opponent on the other team. Regardless of whether he played the three or four, Alexander ended up being a negative for the Bucks. He was less bad playing the four than the three but he was thoroughly outplayed (The Rooster’s stats by position for comparison’s sake).

In an interesting development, the Buck’s just traded Richard Jefferson to the Spurs for the carcasses (and expiring contracts) of Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas. In addition, Milwaukee moved Oberto to the Pistons for Amir Johnson. That just cleared up about 35 minutes per game at the small forward position and brought in more competition at the four. Obviously salary relief was one major concern for the Bucks, but they are also trying to free up some playing time for Alexander in order to try and prove that he wasn’t a total bust.

Steals of the Draft

One of the biggest steals of the draft came when New Jersey selected Brook Lopez with the tenth pick overall. Playing for a New Jersey Nets team in total transition, Lopez has been better than advertised and may end up being one of the top players in the 2008 Class. Before getting into it, let’s just get the obligitory Brook and Robin Lopez comparison out of the way. Now we can move on.

In looking at Brook stats from his rookie year, there are a couple of things that jump out. First, and most importantly, is his efficieny for a big man. Anytime you have a legit seven footer that shoots 53 percent from the field and 79 from the line it is a very good thing. Second, his block totals are very nice (1.9 per game) for a rookie center in the NBA and contain great promise. If you drafted Brook Lopez in your fantasy leagues last season, congratulations; you probably have a nice (fantasy) trophy to show for it.

The second biggest steal of the draft (22nd overall) may have actually come from the late second round: Orlando’s Courtney Lee. Lee played a pivotal role in the Magic’s NBA Finals appearance this season despite being remembered more for his missed shots. Lee will probably end up being a very solid player in the league and has already shown his all-around game. He can shoot, defend, pass the ball and take it to the rack and played very confident basketball during most of the regular season.

Second Round Studs

As in every draft, there are a handful of guys taken in the second round that turn out to have solid careers. Rashard Lewis and Gilbert Arenas are probably the two most commonly cited examples. The first player who might fit that bill is Mario Chalmers. Chalmers (selected34th  overall) did an admirable job as a rookie point guard for the Heat and helped get them into the Playoffs after a very disappointing season in 2007-08. That shooting guard of theirs might have had something to do with their playoff appearance as well…

The final potential second round stud is little-known Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Despite being offensively challenged, Mbah a Moute (drafted 37th overall) has found a way to stay on the court: through solid defense. On a team coached by Scott Skiles, that is pretty much all you need to earn a steady spot in the rotation. As Luc develops, he has the potential to develop into a valuable player in the league. For where he was taken in the draft, Luc should definitely outperform expectations.

There is an overall lesson that can be taken from looking back at past drafts. It doesn’t matter where your draft pick is; value can be found throughout the draft. What really matters is who is doing the picking. Isn’t it strange that certain teams seem to always kill the draft no matter where their picks are? What is really important is to have good management that does their due diligence. The scouting, the workouts, and the numbers are what really separates a team that sees the diamond in the rough from the team that goes for the flavor of the week.