Basketball Free For All

Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

The biggest storyline fantasy circles during week four had to be the return of Elton Brand. Over the first ten games of the season, Brand’s owners have practically had to be on suicide watch. Over the past week, however, Brand has been the second best player in fantasy basketball, period (averaged 19.3 points on .523/.867 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 10.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.7 steals, 3.7 blocks and 2.0 turnovers over the past three games). That is a vintage EB line right there.

Another couple of big names made their season debuts this past week as Antawn Jamison and Pau Gasol both made big splashes in their season debuts. Jamison immediately showed everyone why he is one of the most under-appreciated players in fantasy basketball, averaging 22.7 points on .490/.591 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers in three games this season. Gasol also reminded owners why they spent such a high draft pick on him, posting 24 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.o turnovers in his season debut. Welcome back, fellas.

Other owners were not so lucky last week, with Mike Miller, Andrew Bogut, Jameer Nelson, Erick Dampier and Raja Bell all going down with varying injuries and ailments. For more early season excitement, we also had the first in-season trade of the 2009-10 season sending Stephen Jackson and Acie Law to the Bobcats sending Raja Bell and Valdimir Radmanovic to the Warriors. With week four almost in the books, it is time to look ahead and strategize for week five.

Week Five Schedules
Four Games: DAL, DEN, LAC, MEM, MIL, MIN, NJN, NYK, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, SAN, TOR

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAL, MIA, OKC, PHX, UTA, WAS

Two Games: CHI, NOH

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Dahntay Jones (SG/SF – 40%) This season can definitely be labeled a breakout season for Dahntay in Indy, as he is posting career-highs in virtually every single statistical category after signing with the Pacers. For Jones, ride him while he is hot as he should only face increased competition for minutes as the Pacers return to full strength (most notably Mike Dunleavy). Surprisingly, Jones has been effective on both offense and defense (2.0 steals and 1.7 blocks and 19.7 points on .525 percent shooting over the past three).

Drew Gooden (PF/C – 26%) With Dampier out indefinitely with a mystery illness, Gooden has responded in a beastly manner. Over the past week, Gooden has posted averages of 14.8 points on .500/.818 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.0 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.3 blocks and 1. turnovers. Those are very nice numbers for a center three pulled off the waiver wire. Gooden deserves a universal add for his recent strong production.

Jared Dudley (SF/PF – 19%) Dudley is a player that most casual NBA fans are probably not familiar with but would be if he played for a prime-time team like the Lakers. His a role player that stays on the court through pure hustle and effort in the 2008-09 Trevor Ariza mold. Despite the low ownership numbers, Dudley has been climbing up the fantasy rankings (93rd overall in per game value according to Ziguana) with his potent combination of threes and steals with low turnovers.

Steve Blake (PG – 16%) It appears Blake has won Portland’s point guard battle (fow now) making him rosterable if you need assists, threes and free throw percentage. Over the past week, Blake has put up top-1oo value and played 35 minutes per game with free agent addition Andre Miller outside of the top 200 and averaging 25 minutes per game. I’m not cutting Miller in standard leagues yet, but am getting pretty damn close. The only question left is why Portland paid Miller over $20 million over three years to run their second unit? For a team that has seemingly made all the right moves lately, it just seems like they made the move for the sake of making a move and not because it was the best fit for their team.

Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 15%) In his second stint in the NBA, Ilyasova is starting to prove that he belongs in the League and that he deserves universal ownership. Over the past week, Ersan has put up top fifty value averaging 14.8 points on .488/.727 percent shooting, 2.3 threes, 9.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers in four games. This combination of threes and boards from a forward is a very nice addition without having to sacrifice too much in either of the percentages. His strong play has most likely solidified his spot in the Bucks’ starting lineup (started the past three games).

CUT LIST

Jonny Flynn (PG/SG – 78%) With rookies learning the game at the highest level, efficiency and minutes are usually the main impediments to fantasy value. In Flynn’s case, he has gotten decent minutes (28.4 per game in 13 games this season) but has had serious problems with the efficiency. For reference, Flynn has shot .442 percent from the field (.250 percent from three point land) while also averaging more turnovers than assists (3.5 to 3.2 per game). Add in the fact that Ramon Sessions is a more experienced player and actually has some pretty serious game and Flynn is looking more like a long-term project and less like an immediate impact player. Cut bait.

Andray Blatche (PF/C – 48%) Bulletproof had one hell of a run to start this season. With Jamison out with a preseason shoulder injury, Andray stepped it up in a big way posting top-100 value for the first few weeks. Since Antawn’s return to the Wizards’ starting lineup, Blatche’s minutes have dropped considerably (17, 15, 25 minutes in his past three games) and his status has been demoted from universal ownership to waiver wire wonder. Thank him for his service and be ready to pick him up again in the event of another injury to a Wizards forward.

STAY THE COURSE

John Salmons (SG/SF – 87%) John Salmons giveth and he taketh away. This week, Salmons gave two strong performances back-to-back and then followed them up with a stinker. In fact, last week saw the only two game streak in which Salmons shot .500 percent or greater from the field. However, his .182 percent shooting night on Saturday abruptly brought an end to Salmons owners’ happiness. As with before, the counting stats are there but his shooting efficiency has been terrible (.345 this season versus .444 career). Don’t trade Salmons for an inferior player.

Stephen Curry (PG/SG – 66%) Since S-Jax was unceremoniously sent packing last week, Curry has posted some of the best numbers of his career. Over the past week, Curry has averaged 13.0 points on .448/.800 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 3.3 turnovers. The turnovers are a definite concern but as long as he is providing decent counting stats on good percentages it is palatable.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jason Williams (PG – 17%) Another season and another injury for Jameer Nelson. This one (meniscus) promises to keep Nelson on the bench for at least a month. This means second-string point man White Chocolate is now the starting point guard in Orlando and deserves consideration in deep leagues. If the Magic do not end up trading for another PG or signing a free agent floor general, Williams could eventually play his way into wider ownership. Sunday’s 16 point, 5 rebound, 3 assist performance is a step in that direction.

Terrence Williams (SG/SF/PF – 18%) Williams has had a roller-coaster ride of a rookie season so far with his team win-less through thirteen games. Terrence has shown why he was drafted eleventh overall in the 2009 NBA Draft. Williams’ last couple of games have been promising and he could be positively affected by the return of Devin Harris. Williams is worth picking up at this point in deep leagues to see if he can continue and build upon his recent strong play.

Darren Collison (PG/SG – 13%) / Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 3%) These two Hornets guards have both been on our watch list before and most certainly would have been upgraded to the Add List if it wasn’t for the Hornets’ week upcoming schedule. With Chris Paul down for at least a few more weeks, both of these players can provide interim help in the short-term in different categories. If you are looking for assists, points, threes and free throw percentage give Collison a look. If you are looking for threes, points and field goal percentage with low turnovers give the other Thornton an add.

WATCH LIST

James Harden (PG/SG – 33%) With two strong games back-to-back, Harden is one player that may have turned the corner. Sunday’s contest against the Lakers will be a good heat check for Harden. If the rookie posts another strong line in under 30 minutes, he deserves roster consideration. In the past two games, Harden averaged 24.5 points on .600/.900 percent shooting, 5.0 threes per game, 3.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.5 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. Obviously he is going to cool off a bit, but if he can put up numbers anywhere close to this consistently he’d be worthy of a roster spot in all formats.

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 3%) Another rookie coming off of a strong performance against the over-acheiving Rockets is Sacramento Kings forward Omri Casspi. Casspi set a career-high in scoring going for 17 points on .400/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 8 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 1 turnover. Casspi also posted a career-high in minutes, which is a trend to keep an eye on. If the minutes come consistently for Casspi, he should have no problem putting up fantasy-relevant numbers. For now just monitor the situation and be prepared to act if his minutes continue to trend upward.

Yet another week has passed and there were more changes to the fantasy landscape.  Chris Paul, Travis Outlaw, Josh Howard, Kelenna Azubuike and Marreese Speights went down this week.  Meanwhile, Pau Gasol, Eric Gordon, Courtney Lee and Troy Murphy continued their Mr. Invisible impressions.  At least Antwan Jamison and Rashard Lewis will be sure to return this week.  Also, can’t go without mentioning Brandon Jennings.  He is the reason why NBA League Pass just might be worth it as it’s highly unlikely most of us will even have an opportunity to watch Bucks’ games.

Week Four Schedules

Four Games: ATL, CHA, CLE, DET, HOU, IND, MIA, MIL, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, TOR

Three Games: BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, LAC, LAL, MEM, NJN, NYK, PHI, PHI, SAC, SAS, UTA, WAS

Two Games: MIN

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Will Bynum – He’s got a juicy four game schedule and both  Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton are not expected to play during the road trip.  Although Bynum’s numbers will likely take a hit when Rip gets back, he still might be worth owning as he’ll probably still get around 25 minutes a game and contribute decent scoring stats, assists and steals.

Toney Douglas – Over the last week, Toney has been the Knicks best guard.  It’s not saying much when you check the competition but it is very noteworthy.  D’Antoni’s grey is becoming more noticeable by the day and he’s tired of it.  Currently, he is re-evaluating the entire rotation and it is expected he’ll go with the youth.  I expect Toney to continue to get strong playing time and help fantasy owners in scoring stats, efficiency and steals.

Rudy Fernandez/Martell Webster – Funny how in one week Martell goes from the drop list to the add list.  Thanks Outlaw!  With Travis sidelined for at least 6 weeks, both of these guys will probably be worth owning.  Martell has a golden opportunity to really seize some time as it’s not expected the Blake/Miller/Roy trio to continue starting.  If Webster is able to start knocking his shot down with any regularity, he’ll put up very serviceable numbers across the board.  Rudy on the other hand is a perfect fit for the 6th man so that should continue.  However, his minutes are going to get a bump up so nab him if you really need help with 3’s and steals.

Chris Douglas-Roberts – He licked the swine flu in no time and has already logged 35 minutes in the Nets last game.  Pick him up if he’s available because the Nets are in dire need of his potential contributions.  He’ll be rewarding owners as soon as this coming week in points, efficiency, steals and rebounds.

Thabo Sefolosha – There is no denying it, he has a major role in the Thunder’s rotation because of his defensive abilities.  It’s a great sign that he’s still been getting a ton of time even though his shot has been way off of late (6-25 in the last 4 games).  While he’ll never be a volume shooter, he will help fantasy managers in 3’s, boards and defensive categories.

CUT LIST

DJ Augustin – Seems DJ is going through the motions of a second year player.  There were high hopes entering the season but he’s gotten off to a slow start and it appears Larry Brown won’t help him.  The other night, DJ took a shot off a pick and roll instead of passing to the open player and Coach promptly yanked him.  With Raja Bell attempting to play through his injuries and Flip Murray back, Augustin will be pressed to find consistent minutes.

Chris Duhon – Chris was never meant to be a fantasy relevant player, but that changed the day he put on a Knick uniform.  While he has the ability to put up some nice numbers on occasion, he hasn’t even been close thus far this season.  D’Antoni hasn’t kicked him to the curb yet, but I expect the next game or two to be a nice barometer for the next few months.  If he shows signs of snapping out of it, hang on to him as Coach will undoubtedly stick with him.  If not, send him packing.

Josh Howard - Well that didn’t take long.  Howard is already out indefinitely with rumors claiming he’ll be out until the end of December.  Considering the surgery was back in May and he’s still not right, I don’t suggest standard leagues to stick by this brittle body.

WATCH LIST

Darren Collison – Darren might be a nice plug in option for at least this upcoming week, but I’m not sold on him.  He struggled in his first start against the Hawks and scary as it sounds, Bobby Brown outplayed him.  It’s easy to envision him going from a bad game to average to bad to good to bad again.  Also, after this week, the Hornets will have two straight weeks of just 2 games so I assume there should be a better interim option out there at this time.

JJ Hickson – The Cavaliers moved him into the starting lineup to shake things up a bit after a disappointing start to the year.  Somewhat surprisingly, JJ has come through with flying colors.  In their last game against Utah, he put up 20 points, but more importantly, he received 38 minutes on the floor.  If this continues, then he’ll most likely be worthy of ownership in standard sized leagues.

Marcus Thornton - Last week, I had him in my Deep League Specials section, but this week he gets a bump up.  It’s no secret that the Hornets are struggling especially on the offensive end.  Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, Devin Brown and James Posey have looked awful too many times.  With Jeff Bower responsible for drafting Marcus, I believe he’ll get his share of chances at significant playing time rewarding owners with points, 3’s, FT% and steals.

STAY THE COURSE

Andris Biedrins – Horrid start for sure.  Combine that with a lousy back injury that seemed to be perpetuated by Nellie’s lack of sense, he’s giving fantasy owners absolutely nothing right now.  However, according to Ziguana,  he put up Round 5 value last season.  Considering the Warriors have no other viable center, he’ll jump back into the rotation once he’s deemed healthy.

John Salmons – He couldn’t have gotten off to a worst start – under 32% from the field thus far.  However, don’t make the mistake on either dropping him or selling low as he’s a proven efficient shooter.  Despite his struggles, he’s averaging 38 minutes a game so it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a valuable asset on your team.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Eddy Curry, Jordan Hill – I’ve got a strong feeling one of these two guys will be relevant as soon as this coming week.  David Lee at center seems worse than last year as his opposition is running layup drills around him.  With Darko Milicic apparently not a factor, one can expect D’Antoni to next look to these two guys.  Hill has shown flashes of late that he’s got some game but he still has a number of things to learn (as indicated by his foul rate).  Curry has been a laughing stock for such a long time but the Knicks are desperate.  He’s lost a ton of weight and might be serviceable until his next injury.

CJ Watson – In the world of Nellie, even fodder can turn into gold.  Not surprisingly, Stephen Curry has already landed on the end of the bench so CJ has been able to receive some fantastic minutes the last two games (27 and 34).  Subsequently, he has taken full advantage of it by playing very well and there is a decent chance it’ll continue in the short term.