Basketball Free For All

It appears much of the Hornets’ remaining season will hinge on Darren Collison (Dimes) and Marcus Thornton (Buckets).  If you’ve followed the Hornets closely either at At The Hive or Hornets 247, you would have picked up on these novel but very appropriate nicknames given to New Orleans rookie back court.  However, if you haven’t, don’t worry, I’ll more than introduce you to the league’s best young yet mostly unknown duo.

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Did we really have to learn it’s not cool pulling a gun on a teammate in the locker room?  I’m looking at you Gilbert Arenas!  There are rumors flying around that he’s going to miss serious time as it could be measured in months.  Consequently, it’s no surprise this week’s mystery man has to be Randy Foye.  He’s been a starter in the past so I’d assume Flip would be encouraged to go with him over any of Washington’s other point guards.

Week Eleven Schedules

Four Games: ATL, CHI, LAL, MEM, MIA, NJN, NOH, ORL, POR, UTA, WAS

Three Games:  BOS, CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, MIL, MIN, OKC, PHI, PHO, SAC, SAS, TOR

Two Games:  NYK

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 16%) – Matt’s stock has recently gone up since he was moved into the starting lineup.  Stan Van Gundy has been singing his praises too so expect him to stick in place of Mickael Pietrus.  In his 3 recent starts, he’s averaged 16.7 points, 1.7 3ptm, 7 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.3 TO’s.  He’ll also contribute the occasional defensive numbers.

Omri Casspi (SG/SF/PF – 33%) – Casper has just been on a tear lately so I’m shocked he’s not more universally owned.  In the last 13 games, he’s averaged a very cool 16.2 points, 1.8 3ptm, 5,8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, .6 steals and .4 blocks.  With over 32 minutes a game, he’s also been very efficient shooting 48% from the field and 77.4% from the charity stripe with only 1.4 turnovers.  I don’t see a return of Kevin Martin ending his value either as Westy is likely to move him over to SF.

Nick Collison (PF/C – 5%) – If you don’t mind anti-glamor types, give Nick a look.  Since returning from injury, his minutes have been steadily trending upwards and it appears Scott Brooks is most comfortable with him over both Nenad Krstic and Serge Ibaka.  In the last 5 games, he’s averaged 9.4 points (on 70.8 FG% and 68.4 FT%), 7 rebounds and 1 block.

Luther Head (PG/SG – 9%) – Here we go recommending another Pacer again but you gotta figure we’re due to get one right!  Actually, there is a good chance he’ll revert back into some sort of inconsistent mess considering his track record, but why not ride him now?  He’s easily been the most productive wing player for O’Brien so look for him to continue to get minutes.  The last 3 games as a starter he’s averaged 23 points, 2.3 3ptm, 4.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 steals.

Juwan Howard (SF/PF/C – 10%) – Here is what I like to call a “process of elimination” player.  Simply put, the Blazers best big man is this 36 year old who was drafted by the Washington Bullets.  The last 6 games, Juwan has averaged 9 points (on 57.4 FG%), 7.8 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 1.8 TO’s.  Considering LaMarcus Aldridge is hobbled with an ankle sprain, Howard is well worth a spin during this upcoming 4 game week.

CUT LIST

Mario Chalmers (PG – 49%) – Sadly, it’s about time for owners to let Mario go as one of my favorite preseason targets has been an enormous letdown.  Most likely, his fate is about to be sealed as Miami is probably going to guarantee Carlos Arroyo’s contract for the rest of the season.  When that happens, Mario’s role as a reserve (6.3 points, .4 3ptm, 1.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists) looks to be close to permanent.

TJ Ford (PG – 43%) – Seems like Ford has finally hit rock bottom as he’s recently been demoted to 3rd string point guard for the lowly Indiana Pacers.  What’s worse is he claims in the linked article that he didn’t get an explanation for being removed from the rotation.  Uh, TJ, quit playing dumb.

Peja Stojakovic (SG/SF – 67%) – Since Christmas, Peja has fallen off a cliff (averaging under 5 points a game, 1 three, 3 rebounds and 1 assist in 4 games).  In addition to the obvious slump, his back has started to act up on him again.  Considering, he’s had chronic problems the last few years, don’t hold your breath he’ll be right as rain after a few days of rest.

WATCH LIST

DeJuan Blair (SF/PF/C – 14%) – Blair’s adjustment as a starter hasn’t gone as smoothly as most of us had hoped as his minutes and numbers have been up and down since being handed this juicy role back on December 21.  His uninspiring averages of 7.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, .6 steals and .7 blocks over that period have resulted in Theo Ratliff getting the start in Sunday’s game against Toronto.  However, it’s hard to throw in the towel on a kid who usually doesn’t need much time to put a fantasy worthy line.

Andray Blatche (PF/C – 33%) – “Seven Day Dray” started the season off with a bang thanks to an Antawn Jamison shoulder injury.  However, as expected, he faded back into obscurity when he became a role player again.  With the Wizards lackluster play, Flip gave Blatche a start in their last game against the Spurs.  Coach is looking for an increase in paint production, but we all know Dray loves to shoot too many jumpers.  If he does heed Flip’s wishes, he could be worth owning again.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 15%) – Managers looking for an interim boost in scoring should look Rasual’s way.  Over the last ten games, he’s averaged 14.5 points, 2.4 3ptm, 3.2 rebounds and 1 block on excellent shooting (48.7 FG% and 91.7 FT%).  More importantly, he has replaced Al Thornton as the team’s starting small forward.  Just remember to temper your expectations as Butler likes to disappear and Blake Griffin’s return is getting nearer.

Quentin Richardson (SG/SF – 18%) – Q has got to be this season’s Jekyll/Mr. Hyde winner.  Case in point, just glance at the boxscore of his last two games.  Against the Spurs, 0 points and 3 rebounds.  Against the Bobcats, 20 points (6 3ptm) and 5 rebounds.  I literally prefer to just watch Qrich, but he could be worth a look for a team either feeling lucky or in dire need of 3ptm.

STAY THE COURSE

Courtney Lee (SG/SF – 50%) – Mr. Lee’s averages have been quite pedestrian thus far this season:  11.5 points, .6 3ptm, 3.7 rebounds and 1.9 assists.  Lately, his numbers have shown a bit of a decline which is most likely due to the fact that Yi Jianlian and Chris Douglas-Roberts are back playing big minutes to go alongside Devin Harris and Brook Lopez.  Despite this, I still recommend you hang onto him.  That perimeter shooting is bound to improve as he’s always been considered an excellent shot.  Moreover, he provides a significant amount of steals (1.7) to go along with very low turnvoers (1.1).

Charlie Villanueva (SF/PF – 84%) – Without a doubt, there is cause for alarm as his recent 6 game averages are woeful:  4.7 points, .3 3ptm, 3.5 rebounds and .5 blocks.  As the roster is finally getting healthy around him, Kuester’s manlove for Jonas Jerebko and his plantar fasciitis are all attempting to stand in his way of solid production.  However, things will turn around as he sat down with the Coach and figured out what he needed to do.  The outcome?  He played 28 minutes in the Piston’s last game against the Bulls while Jerebko 19.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Glen Davis (PF/C – 4%) – With Kevin Garnett out for a minimum of 10 days, the Celtic’s need Big Baby.  Rasheed Wallace isn’t accustomed to playing huge starter’s minutes and Kendrick Perkins usually struggles with foul trouble.  Expect at least a few games of solid points, boards and steals in the near future.

Wayne Ellington (PG/SG – 1%) – Are we ready to proclaim it Wayne’s World?  No, but his role is undeniably increasing in Minnesota as evidenced by the uptick in his minutes recently.  Considering how the team is in need of a solid perimeter threat, Coach Rambis must be excited this rookie is finally putting things together.  If you’re in a deep league and would like to bump up the scoring categories, give him a try.  He set a new season high of 16 points and 3 3ptm in their last game.

MYSTERY MAN

Randy Foye (PG/SG – 31%) – As I mentioned earlier, Gilbert Arenas supposedly pulled the knucklehead move of the year by playing with a gun in the Wizard’s locker room.  Consequently, stiff penalties await and he could leave a mammoth hole for a lengthy period of time.  Enter Randy.  Even though Flip has shown a preference to Earl Boykins certain games, it is highly unlikely the 5 foot 5 inch guard could handle the starting duties.  Meanwhile Randy has played huge minutes at the point in Minnesota providing solid points, 3ptm, assists and steals.  Be ready to pounce if any new developments regarding any suspensions crop up.

Yet another week has passed and there were more changes to the fantasy landscape.  Chris Paul, Travis Outlaw, Josh Howard, Kelenna Azubuike and Marreese Speights went down this week.  Meanwhile, Pau Gasol, Eric Gordon, Courtney Lee and Troy Murphy continued their Mr. Invisible impressions.  At least Antwan Jamison and Rashard Lewis will be sure to return this week.  Also, can’t go without mentioning Brandon Jennings.  He is the reason why NBA League Pass just might be worth it as it’s highly unlikely most of us will even have an opportunity to watch Bucks’ games.

Week Four Schedules

Four Games: ATL, CHA, CLE, DET, HOU, IND, MIA, MIL, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, TOR

Three Games: BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, LAC, LAL, MEM, NJN, NYK, PHI, PHI, SAC, SAS, UTA, WAS

Two Games: MIN

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Will Bynum – He’s got a juicy four game schedule and both  Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton are not expected to play during the road trip.  Although Bynum’s numbers will likely take a hit when Rip gets back, he still might be worth owning as he’ll probably still get around 25 minutes a game and contribute decent scoring stats, assists and steals.

Toney Douglas – Over the last week, Toney has been the Knicks best guard.  It’s not saying much when you check the competition but it is very noteworthy.  D’Antoni’s grey is becoming more noticeable by the day and he’s tired of it.  Currently, he is re-evaluating the entire rotation and it is expected he’ll go with the youth.  I expect Toney to continue to get strong playing time and help fantasy owners in scoring stats, efficiency and steals.

Rudy Fernandez/Martell Webster – Funny how in one week Martell goes from the drop list to the add list.  Thanks Outlaw!  With Travis sidelined for at least 6 weeks, both of these guys will probably be worth owning.  Martell has a golden opportunity to really seize some time as it’s not expected the Blake/Miller/Roy trio to continue starting.  If Webster is able to start knocking his shot down with any regularity, he’ll put up very serviceable numbers across the board.  Rudy on the other hand is a perfect fit for the 6th man so that should continue.  However, his minutes are going to get a bump up so nab him if you really need help with 3’s and steals.

Chris Douglas-Roberts – He licked the swine flu in no time and has already logged 35 minutes in the Nets last game.  Pick him up if he’s available because the Nets are in dire need of his potential contributions.  He’ll be rewarding owners as soon as this coming week in points, efficiency, steals and rebounds.

Thabo Sefolosha – There is no denying it, he has a major role in the Thunder’s rotation because of his defensive abilities.  It’s a great sign that he’s still been getting a ton of time even though his shot has been way off of late (6-25 in the last 4 games).  While he’ll never be a volume shooter, he will help fantasy managers in 3’s, boards and defensive categories.

CUT LIST

DJ Augustin – Seems DJ is going through the motions of a second year player.  There were high hopes entering the season but he’s gotten off to a slow start and it appears Larry Brown won’t help him.  The other night, DJ took a shot off a pick and roll instead of passing to the open player and Coach promptly yanked him.  With Raja Bell attempting to play through his injuries and Flip Murray back, Augustin will be pressed to find consistent minutes.

Chris Duhon – Chris was never meant to be a fantasy relevant player, but that changed the day he put on a Knick uniform.  While he has the ability to put up some nice numbers on occasion, he hasn’t even been close thus far this season.  D’Antoni hasn’t kicked him to the curb yet, but I expect the next game or two to be a nice barometer for the next few months.  If he shows signs of snapping out of it, hang on to him as Coach will undoubtedly stick with him.  If not, send him packing.

Josh Howard - Well that didn’t take long.  Howard is already out indefinitely with rumors claiming he’ll be out until the end of December.  Considering the surgery was back in May and he’s still not right, I don’t suggest standard leagues to stick by this brittle body.

WATCH LIST

Darren Collison – Darren might be a nice plug in option for at least this upcoming week, but I’m not sold on him.  He struggled in his first start against the Hawks and scary as it sounds, Bobby Brown outplayed him.  It’s easy to envision him going from a bad game to average to bad to good to bad again.  Also, after this week, the Hornets will have two straight weeks of just 2 games so I assume there should be a better interim option out there at this time.

JJ Hickson – The Cavaliers moved him into the starting lineup to shake things up a bit after a disappointing start to the year.  Somewhat surprisingly, JJ has come through with flying colors.  In their last game against Utah, he put up 20 points, but more importantly, he received 38 minutes on the floor.  If this continues, then he’ll most likely be worthy of ownership in standard sized leagues.

Marcus Thornton - Last week, I had him in my Deep League Specials section, but this week he gets a bump up.  It’s no secret that the Hornets are struggling especially on the offensive end.  Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, Devin Brown and James Posey have looked awful too many times.  With Jeff Bower responsible for drafting Marcus, I believe he’ll get his share of chances at significant playing time rewarding owners with points, 3’s, FT% and steals.

STAY THE COURSE

Andris Biedrins – Horrid start for sure.  Combine that with a lousy back injury that seemed to be perpetuated by Nellie’s lack of sense, he’s giving fantasy owners absolutely nothing right now.  However, according to Ziguana,  he put up Round 5 value last season.  Considering the Warriors have no other viable center, he’ll jump back into the rotation once he’s deemed healthy.

John Salmons – He couldn’t have gotten off to a worst start – under 32% from the field thus far.  However, don’t make the mistake on either dropping him or selling low as he’s a proven efficient shooter.  Despite his struggles, he’s averaging 38 minutes a game so it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a valuable asset on your team.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Eddy Curry, Jordan Hill – I’ve got a strong feeling one of these two guys will be relevant as soon as this coming week.  David Lee at center seems worse than last year as his opposition is running layup drills around him.  With Darko Milicic apparently not a factor, one can expect D’Antoni to next look to these two guys.  Hill has shown flashes of late that he’s got some game but he still has a number of things to learn (as indicated by his foul rate).  Curry has been a laughing stock for such a long time but the Knicks are desperate.  He’s lost a ton of weight and might be serviceable until his next injury.

CJ Watson – In the world of Nellie, even fodder can turn into gold.  Not surprisingly, Stephen Curry has already landed on the end of the bench so CJ has been able to receive some fantastic minutes the last two games (27 and 34).  Subsequently, he has taken full advantage of it by playing very well and there is a decent chance it’ll continue in the short term.

Well, week 2 has come and gone but at a major cost as a number of key players went down.  Among some of the bigger names slated to miss a ton of time are Yi Jianlian, Kevin Martin, Tyrus Thomas and Tayshaun Prince.  Tony Parker, Kenyon Martin and Andris Biedrins look to miss at least a game or two themselves.  Even the swine flu decided to stop by and say hello by claiming the first victim from the NBA – Chris Douglas-Roberts.  In fact, it’s gotten so bad for the New Jersey Nets that they have the league minimum available right now (8) with Brook Lopez the only starter left standing.

Week Three Schedules

Four Games: DAL, GSW, HOU, LAC, MIN, NOH, OKC, PHI, PHO, POR, TOR, UTA

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DEN, DET, LAL, MEM, MIA, NJN, NYK, ORL, SAS

Two Games: IND, MIL, SAC, WAS

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Quentin Richardson — The slimmed down version of Q might be worth owning this year as the Heat are in need of consistent production at SF while he plays for another contract.  Over the last 3 games, he’s averaged over 16 pts, 3 3ptm and 9 boards.  Naturally, he’ll on occasion put up some horrid efficiency numbers, but it shouldn’t be as bad as years past.

Beno Udrih — Coming into the year, I’m pretty sure even Slovenian fans wrote him off.  However, with Kmart going down in flames again, it’s opened the door for Beno.  The last 4 games he’s averaged a little over 16 pts, 1 3ptm and 4 assists on solid percentages.

Chuck Hayes/Carl Landry — Decided to pair up this duo as they both play for the Rockets giving solid boards and FG%.  Go with Hayes if you’re looking for a significant boost in steals (2.3 per game) or choose Landry for points scored (14.3 per game).

Anthony Morrow — Last years 3 point shooting wunderkind, has been on a decent 3 game roll knocking in 17.7 points per game to go along with 2.7 threes.  With Golden State struggling out of the gate, I expect Amo’s role to increase at some point.  GSW will continue to shop Sjax behind closed doors while Nellie will slowly become more drawn to Morrow’s proficient shooting with the passing of each loss.

Corey Brewer — If you don’t mind a horrendous FG%, this former Gator is probably for you.  He’s currently averaging 12.7 points, 4.3 boards, 2.3 steals and almost 1 block a game.  In addition, he’s hit 4 3’s the last two games.

Cut List

Ryan Anderson — Nice run by the kid but expect inconsistent production when he finally gets over his ankle injury.  Vince Carter will be back and Rashard Lewis not too far behind him pushing the new Pat Garrity back to the bench where he’ll have to fight for minutes with Bass, Pietrus and Barnes.

Allen Iverson — Well, the AI experiment in Memphis didn’t last long.  Just a few games under his belt, and Allen is already grumbling about his role.  Also, it can’t be anything good that he just left the team indefinitely to deal with a personal matter.  If it was truly a death in the family or something similar, don’t you think that news would have been released as to avoid speculation?

Martell Webster/Travis Outlaw — It was already bad enough both of these guys were sucking out each other’s fantasy values with a pretty solid timeshare.  Now, it’s gotten progressively worse as Nate McMillan has decided to go with a 3 guard lineup.  With both of them coming off the bench for at least the short term, I’m sure you can find a better option on the waiver wire.

Watch List

Peja Stojakovic — Earlier today, the Hornets stated that Peja will be moved back into the starting lineup.  Not too surprising considering the lackadaisical play by the Hornets wingmen (especially Julian Wright).  Not suggesting he be picked up yet as he still looks stiff as a board and doesn’t offer much to fantasy owners if his shot isn’t dropping.

Omri Casspi — This Israeli-born player seems to be going places.  First, Garcia goes down with a significant injury and then Desmond Mason does so poorly that the Kings just recently decided to waive him.  During preseason, those close to the team raved about his intensity and ability to put the ball in the basket.  Well not much has changed so far in the regular season as he’s definitely worth an add in deeper leagues.  In the near future, he might be worth a pickup in standard leagues too if the Kings decide to limit Nocioni at SF.

Stay the Course

Anthony Randolph — Yeah, many of us who decided to bite the forbidden fruit from the Nellie tree are currently paying the price.  However, I don’t advocate jumping ship quite yet.  First, it appears that Randolph will still manage to get on the court as both Biedrins and Turiaf are struggling with injuries.  Second, in what already looks like a lost season, fans and management might push Nellie to play the young guys as to better prepare them for following seasons.

Deep League Specials

Taj Gibson — When Tyrus Thomas’ bone snapped, Gibson became an intriguing pickup in deeper leagues.  Del Negro prefers to keep Brad Miller as the first big coming off the bench so Taj will get some decent run.  Although he is still quite raw, he has some nice athleticism that should translate to some points, boards and defensive numbers.

Ersan Ilyasova — Say yes to Ersan!  The Bucks’ forwards have not surprisingly been a mess to start the year.  However, Ilyasova offers some hope as he appears to be getting his feet under him in the NBA.  Ilyasova has the ability to fill up the stat sheet as witnessed by his performance in the recent European Championship.

Marcus Thornton — By default, Marcus appears to be in line for an increased role in New Orleans.  Recently, Morris Peterson was put on the inactive list (CHEER) due to his poor play.  Now Byron Scott is giving Devin Brown a shot.  Well, with Devin, it’s only a question of when.  Since Scott has announced Thornton is next on the list, I wouldn’t be surprised if Marcus starts getting solid run by the end of this week.

As expected, week one was full of surprises and story lines with some of the League’s young players making serious noise. Denver’s Carmelo Anthony is off to an head start in the battle to secure this season’s scoring title, averaging 35.5 points in his first two games. New York’s Danilo Gallinari is proving why he deserved to be a lottery pick (and sleeper) draining a whopping five treys per in his first two games. Milwaukee’s Brandon Jennings put everyone on notice with his near triple double NBA debut (17 points, 9 rebounds, 9 assists).

With one exciting week down and many more to go, it’s never too soon to start planning for next week.

Week Two Schedules

Four Games: ATL, BOS, DEN, DET, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, NOR, NYK, ORL, PHO, SAC, UTA, WAS

Three Games: CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, OKC, PHI, POR, TOR

Two Games: SAS

Cut List

Antonio McDyess — It looks like it is going to take a front court injury to make Dice fantasy relevant this season. Feel free to cut bait on Antonio for a hot hand. Decision that much easier with the Spurs the only team playing two games next week (against Utah and Portland on the road; both teams play much better at home).

Peja Stojakovic — Apparently people drafted Peja this season and are still holding on to him (60 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues). Look for cheap threes elsewhere.

Corey Maggette — Maggette is still owned in the majority of Yahoo! leagues, despite his terrible start. While still providing help in free throw percentage, Corey has been a drag on field goal percentage due to his relentless chucking. In case you need any more convincing, Maggette still plays for fantasy basketball’s most frustrating coach, Don Nelson.

Watch List / Add List

* Note: Percentages in parentheses denote ownership rates in Yahoo! leagues.

Larry Hughes (38%) — While certainly not known for his shot selection (well, actually he is, for all the wrong reasons), Hughes is certainly a scorer. Hughes 2009-10 debut against the Sixers was a nice showing, dropping 18 points on .636/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, 1 block and 4 turnovers. Still not convinced? Hughes is in a contract year this season (see 2004-05 season).

Kelenna Azubuike (37%) — Azubuike has quietly put together the same line that put him in the top-100 last season, giving him a Basketball Monster rank of 65th in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 71st in per game value. Kelenna will get you scoring on good percentages and will have a few big games this season. He also gets you solid defensive production from a guard-eligible player, which is always a plus.

Marreese Speights (30%) — If any of the bigs in Philly have benefited from Eddie Jordan’s much-heralded Princeton offense, it appears to be Speights (BBM: 38th; Ziguana 41st). Averaging a 16.7 points on a scorching .750/.824 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 7.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers per game. Obviously his field goal percentage will come back to earth but his offensive aggresiveness is paying dividends for owners. Pick him up while he’s hot.

Anthony Parker (30%) — With Delonte West making his triumphant return to the Cavs’ rotation, Parker’s top-100 fantasy value now faces stiffer competition. Definitely a situation to monitor and both players could end up canceling each others’ value out in the long in the dreaded time-share situation.

Ty Lawson (25%) — Think any teams are regretting passing on Lawson yet? If not, they will be. Outside of deep leagues and keeper/dynasty formats, Lawson is another guy to keep on your radar. If veteran point guard Chauncey Billups misses any time, run to the waiver wire and pickup Ty.

Hakim Warrick (24%) –Warrick will most likely carve out a decent amount of minutes in the Bucks’ front court rotation. Whether starting or providing a spark off the bench, Warrick should provide end of the bench fantasy value. Worth a speculative add if you have dead weight on your roster.

Terrence Williams (19%) — Another guy to pickup for speculative purposes is Terrence Williams. Playing for the woeful New Jersey Nets, he is slated to get plenty of burn as the Nets look to maximize their ping-pong balls next summer.

Chris Douglas-Roberts (11%) — Similar to Williams, CDR is also due for some big burn this season and has a chance to muscle his way into the top-100 (currently ranked 115th in per game value according to BBM and 111th according to Ziguana). With Devin Harris out for a few games with a minor injury (surprise, surprise), CDR should get a slight boost of minutes in the short term.

Stay the Course

D.J. Augustin — Augustin’s season has been a bit of a roller coaster already. He (and the Bobcats in general) laid an egg in Boston for their season opener. He followed up with a nice scoring outing against the New York Knicks, which should be taken with a hearty dose of salt. With that being said, it is a little too early to discard D.J. to the trash heap just yet. Give him another week before making any rash decisions.

Chris Andersen — The Birdman has disappointed fantasy managers so far this season. He was drafted as a one category contributer and has provided below average returns on managers; investment (0.5 blocks per game versus 2.5 last season). The blocks will return, as Andersen’s role is to be a game changing defender in the paint for the Nuggets.

Injury Adds

Rafer Alston — As alluded to earlier, Harris is out for an unknown amount of time with a ticky-tack injury. Nothing new here. In his absence, Alston stepped up dropping 20 points on .727/.500 percent shooting, 3 threes, 2 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 steal, o blocks and 4 turnovers against the Wizards on Halloween. Skip to My Lou is a nice short term add for scoring, assists and threes while Harris nurses his wounds.

Buy Low

John Salmons — At this point in the season, there are probably a decent amount of fantasy managers that are nervous with Salmons’ performance. His .172 field goal percentage is probably at the top of their list of worries. However, keep in mind that Salmons is still getting adjusted to being the Man with Ben Gordon now playing in Detroit. It is important to note that the Bulls only two games so far this season have come against Boston and San Antonio, two of the league’s best defensive teams out there. Time to send out lowball offers to Salmons owners before he drops his signature lines.

Sell High

Tim Duncan — It is completely conceivable that Duncan has already had his best game of the season against the Chicago Bulls (28 points on .684/.500 percent shooting, 16 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks and 2 turnovers). The Chicago game should be considered an aberration with his other two performances more likely the norm. As the Spurs clinch a playoff spot, Duncan’s minutes will only decrease and surprise DNP’s will make him harder and harder to move. Sell him now based on his monster second game if you can find a decent deal.

For those of you who think Emeka Okafor will be the only new significant contributor for the New Orleans Hornets this season, think again!  Joining the big man in the middle in the starting lineup will be Julian Wright.  With the team in desperate need of some youthful athleticism, he is poised to have a nice breakout in 2009-10.

Julian’s first two years in the NBA were pretty uneventful as he mainly participated in garbage time.  However, some of you may remember towards the end of his rookie year, he showed some glimpses of his potential.  In particular, during the 4th game of the playoffs against Dallas, Julian came into the game and helped deflate the Mavericks momentum with his energy and hustle.  The Hornets went on to finish off Dallas and then almost knocked off the Spurs.

Subsequently, last year, many Hornets fans expected to see Wright emerge as a major cog in the rotation.  Sadly, it didn’t happen as the wrath of young player hater Byron Scott buried him on the bench.  Many fans expressed their concern over the course of the 2008-09 campaign and pointed to losing young promising talent like J.R. Smith and Brandon Bass.  Then, somewhat surprisingly, rumors started circulating that Wright was going to become a starter this upcoming season, and at the start of training camp, it became official:

“Right now Julian is the starting three, ” Scott said. “It’s his position to lose. He’s comfortable and he has a lot of confidence in himself. I think he knows we have a lot of confidence in him.”

Source:  Nola.com

So why the sudden turn around Byron?  Have a change of heart?

I seriously doubt it as I think the issue was two-fold.  First, a lot of it boiled down to hard economics.  The Hornets were stuck between a rock and hard place this offseason as they needed to get better but were well over the salary cap.  Why else would they deal Tyson Chandler (a CP3 favorite), Rasual Butler (for a 2nd round pick) and Antonio Daniels (decent veteran backup PG)?

Second, they had just gone through a season in which the immovable Peja Stojakovic wasn’t physically 100% for the majority of the season.  Consequently, the only obvious solution was to play him less minutes in order to help maintain his effectiveness.

So now the Hornets have to fill both the starting SG and SF positions.  One look at the remaining roster and you’ll see why the Hornets appear to have the “wright change of heart.”  Besides our sleeper candidate, they could have gone with Devin Brown (do you really need an explanation), James Posey (easily his best role is off the bench) and Morris Peterson (someone not a rookie needs to play SG).  It’s no surprise why the Hornets have a ton of confidence in the youngster.

Good thing for fantasy owners is this kid has some game.  Despite not having solid support his first two seasons, his career per-36  minute averages are 11.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.0 turnovers, 1.6 steals and .8 blocks.  His field goal percentage is a hefty 49.4%.  His FT shooting and 3 point contributions are dismal but let’s not completely write them off considering he still is young enough to improve upon them.

The biggest question will be whether the aforementioned line serves either as a baseline or a ceiling.  In the past, the Hornets have made a mistake of treating Wright like a number of their other wings – a shooter with an experienced IQ.  Guess what – he’s NOT that type of player.

Instead, think Gerald Wallace – a high-riser with amazing all around athleticism and excellent length (6′8”) and wingspan (7′1”).  I believe that the Hornets will finally realize his strengths as they can’t bury their heads in the sand anymore.  They’ll have to rely on his above the rim game with Tyson in Charlotte, his excellent rebounding numbers for a wingman and very good vision to hit a number of excellent Hornet spot up shooters.  When you couple this opportunity with what many scouts consider a good work ethic, you can see why Wright has all the makings of a special sleeper.

As the upcoming NBA season approaches it is never too early to begin to think about which players to target to help your fantasy squad. Everyone is looking to find potential sleepers, the players that will outperform their draft position and potentially lead your team to fantasy glory. This year is no different and one player to keep a close eye on early is the New York Knick’s Danilo Gallinari.

No, this is not a Basketball Free For All original.

Gallinari came to New York via Italy as the sixth overall draft pick in the 2008 NBA Draft. He came into the league as another unknown European player with lots of potential, a word that is so often thrown around that it has become trivial. It is also a word that is strongly correlated with the dreaded b-word (bust).

After a rookie season in which he missed 54 games due to a back injury sustained in summer league play, Gallinari is now poised to start for the Knicks. After undergoing back surgery in April, Danilo is healthy and should be given plenty of minutes to prove he is worthy of a lottery pick.

Speaking recently at a Knicks charity event Gallinari touched on his health and his expectations for the coming season: “I feel good…I want to see the expectations, I want to feel the pressure, because that’s what makes you a really good player,” he said. “So I’m happy that there is pressure and people have expectations.”

Coach D’Antoni also gave Gallinari rave reviews saying he looked “good” and “He’s taken a lot of hits and fallen down and gotten back up. He’s getting in better shape as each day goes by.”

Source: The New York Times

The article also suggests that the Rooster will most likely be a starter this season. The Knicks are a team that is looking to develop its young core with well known hopes of making a big acquisition in next summer’s free  agent market. However, no superstar wants to join a team that is lottery-bound, so Coach Mike D’Antoni and the Knicks have to showcase their young talent next season as a draw to Lebron James any potential free agent acquisitions.

Gallinari, along with Wilson Chandler,  seems to be at the forefront of this player development movement in Madison Square Garden. As a result, he should earn somewhere around 30 minutes per game next season. Examining last season’s limited data set, his per 36 minute averages were 14.9 points on .448/.963 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 4.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers.

Not bad for a player in his rookie season, playing injured, and having to adjust to not only rookie NBA life, but life in a new country as well. With his new-found health and a tumultuous rookie season out of the way, what can we expect this year from Gallinari?

Assuming he earns at least 30 minutes a game (for reference he played 14.7 minutes per game last season), he should approach 13.5 points, 2.3 threes, 4.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.2 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. He should again provide strong free throw percentages (90%+) and should continue to hover near or improve upon his rookie field goal percentage.

The break-neck pace (the second highest in the league last season) of Coach D’Antoni’s fantasy-friendly offense should only help to reinforce stability in Gallinari’s numbers. He is also an excellent three point shooter and should contribute quite a few threes here and there. According to early mock drafts, Gallinari is going in the 13th round with an average draft position of 155.4. Yahoo! has given the Rooster an O-Rank of 166th overall.

Guys with limited upside such as: Andres Nocioni, Grant Hill and Peja Stojakovic are all going before Danilo. For the most part we have seen what those guys are capable of producing and barring some injury, trade or massive resurgence, they have nowhere near the potential (there’s that word again) that Gallinari offers.

His main competition at the small forward spot will be Wilson Chandler. As alluded to earlier, he is another young and talented player who is also said to be in the future plans for the post-2010 Knicks. Chandler and Gallinari should compete for minutes but they are both too talented to be relegated to small roles next season.  Both Gallinari and Chandler should see plenty of PT with a complimentary lineup of  Chris Duhon, David Lee, Jared Jeffries, Al Harrington, Nate Robinson, Larry Hughes, Darko Milicic and even possibly Eddy Curry (if only to showcase him to boost his trade value) seeing the majority of the remaining play time.

No matter how the rotation shakes out in New York, Gallinari will be featured prominently as a key piece of the Knicks’ future plans. Don’t sleep on the Rooster as he is almost assured to outperform his 13th round draft position and provide wise managers with solid fantasy dividends.