Sep 23 2009

Keeper and Dynasty League Strategy

Phil Londen

For some managers, there is no more exciting and challenging experience than a competitive keeper league. In certain respects, a keeper league mimics the idea of managing a team more realistic than a standard redraft fantasy league. The same can be said for dynasty or auction leagues to an even larger degree.

Strategy

The Basics

In keeper leagues, managers get the opportunity to build teams around a core of players instead of assembling new teams each season. Honestly, both formats are fun and challenging but the idea of putting together an awesome keeper core and then building a championship-caliber squad around them is an extremely rewarding experience.

With dynasty leagues, you get the opportunity to draft and retain an entire team of players, replicating the actual general manager experience to a greater degree than a standard keeper league. Dynasty leagues strongly reward managers who can identify talent and secure talent. It separates those with an eye for talent and devotion to the game from those that get the entirety of their hoops knowledge from SportsCenter (no disrespect to SC at all).

And auction leagues take dynasty leagues to a whole new level of complexity by forcing managers to bid against each other for talent and then to live with the teams they assemble and the salaries they pledged. The key to auction leagues is finding value on the cheap. That’s how you secure the hardware.

So, how do you spot talent and sign them cheaply?

That is pretty much like asking for the fantasy holy grail. For starters, you have to have NBA League Pass. Second, you need a lot of free time and a patient and understanding significant other. Then you need to do your due diligence (and no shortcuts either). Finally, you need a serious dose of luck.

Pretty simple, eh?

League Settings and Variations

Keeper leagues themselves are not by any means universal. They can be roto or head-to-head. They can be standard eight or nine category or they could be entirely different combinations of categories. There really is no such thing as a “plain vanilla” keeper league.

The main distinguishing factor between keeper leagues, however, is the number of players kept from year-to-year. The most common number of keepers is probably around four or five, but the number can really be all over the map and can range from one to nine. Leagues that keep more than ten players are probably closer to dynasty leagues than to keeper leagues.

Beyond the previously mentioned differences, there can also be other variations for keeper leagues. One of the most common way involves forfeiting draft picks based upon who is kept. Let’s say that last season you drafted Dirk Nowitzki in the first round, Paul Pierce in the third round, Kevin Durant in the sixth round and Wilson Chandler in the twelfth round. In a normal keeper league, Nowitzki, Pierce and Durant would be the no-brainer keepers.

However, under these league settings, you would have to forfeit your first, third and sixth round picks to keep those three players. So then you have to consider the value you are getting (i.e. the keeper) versus the value you are paying (i.e. the draft pick). Under these circumstances it might make sense to keep Chandler over one of the other three players based upon value alone. In this case, you can only really consider Pierce as Nowitzki and Durant are locks to post first round value.

Thus, the dilemma becomes would you rather have Paul Pierce, a twelfth round pick and no third round pick? Or, would you rather have Wilson Chandler, a third round pick and no twelfth round pick? There is no right answer here but it basically depends upon how you value the two players and their future outlooks and team situations.

For dynasty leagues, the treatment of rookies provides one source of variation. In some leagues, rookies are thrown into a pool with all players not rostered at the end of the preceding season. Thus, rookies are drafted with veterans in the redraft to fill rosters at the start of next season. The other common way of handling rookies is through a separate rookie draft. This can be a one or two round mini-draft, depending upon the number of managers in any given league. This method also mimics real life to a large degree and rewards managers that follow college or do their research before the rookie draft. This is good way for managers with an eye for talent to lock up premier talent on the cheap.

The basic lesson from this discussion of some of the common league settings and variations is a simple one. Know your league and the various nuances of its scoring and settings. This is often the difference between the average managers and those standing tall on the winners podium at the end of the season.

Critical Strategy!

Regardless of league type (keeper, dynasty, auction), scoring type (roto, head-to-head, points) or league settings (number of keepers, forfeiting draft picks, treatment of rookies), there is one common mistake that is prevalent. In fact, it’s practically an epidemic and it can absolutely cripple a fantasy team. It is the mistake of overvaluing youth and building for the future.

Keeper league and dynasty managers often build with a timeline of years laid out in front of them. Call it the Portland or Oklahoma City model of team building. They draft the most talented rookie first and plan on waiting years until that player blossoms into the Man. However, this model ignores the fundamental purpose of fantasy basketball and why we participate.

We play fantasy sports to win; simple as that.

Every manager, all of the time, should be gunning for the gold. It doesn’t matter how bad your keeper core is or which team has Lebron James, Kevin Durant and Dwyane Wade, your goal is to beat everyone, everyday. It takes a truly outstanding manager with a focused vision and realistic game plan to beat a team with vastly superior keepers (not to mention a little goodwill from lady luck). And these wins are often times the most satisfying of all fantasy basketball victories.

So, when drafting in a keeper or dynasty league, always remember that the ultimate goal is to win the upcoming season. Obviously you don’t want to handcuff yourself in the future but don’t ever forfeit an entire season before it begins. It is amusing to see how early players with “upside” or “potential” get drafted over a proven veteran with a very high chance of continuing their fantasy production. A good example would be drafting Hasheem Thabeet when Ray Allen is available in the redraft.

In head-to-head leagues, continue to compete up until you are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. As soon as this happens, then you can start to plan for next season. Open up negotiations with all of the managers in the playoffs and see what they need. The idea is to trade all of your depth (i.e. non-keepers) for star power. Trade three, four or even five players to a contender to get their star. Do anything you can to compile and consolidate star power. That is how unstoppable keeper teams are made.

Once you exhaust all depth for star power trades, explore avenues for acquiring draft picks. The same rules apply; trade any non-keeper to those in the playoffs (or teams with weak keeper cores) for draft picks. This puts you in the best possible position to dominate next season. Because as soon as the playoffs end, you lose the leverage of being able to trade with players who are still trying to win it all this season.

Competing in dynasty and keeper leagues is not difficult if you follow a couple of basic rules and are willing to devote enough time and effort to besting your opponents. First, make sure and know your league settings and all of it’s nuances. Second, avoid the all-too-common pitfall of overvaluing youth and potential at the expense of trying to win now. Finally, have fun and try and not take it too seriously.

This article originally appeared at Barracuda Fantasy Sports. Check out their redesigned home page with tons of solid fantasy sports articles and analysis.


May 18 2009

Nuggets v. Lakers: WCF Preview

Phil Londen

With the top two seeds still alive and kicking in the Western Conference, both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets avoided upsets on their way to the Western Conference Finals. However, both teams took divergent routes this season to arrive at the same destination; the doorstep of the Promised Land.

For the Lakers, it seems as though their season was predestined from the moment training camp began. Kobe Bryant and company finished the season with the second best record in the league, second only to Eastern Conference power house, the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Lakers also sported high profile wins against some of the toughest competition this season and stole a game from the Cavs at the Q (39-2 record at home this season, with the Lakers being the only team able to dethrone the King at home;  The Philadelphia 76′ers beat the Cavaliers at home in the final game of the season by one point with Lebron James in street clothes).

For the Nuggets, the season started ominously with the front office kicking Marcus Camby to the curb for peanuts (well, salary cap relief). At that time, the Nuggets faithful were despairing the loss of their defensive anchor for nothing in return. Little did they know that the front office had an ace up their sleeve and would pull-off one of the best trades since the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol from Memphis last season.

In what has proven to be a franchise-altering move, the Nuggets shipped out Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess (who was ultimately waived and re-signed with Detroit for a better shot at winning a title… whoops). Since that time, the Nuggets have gone from possible lottery team to legitimate championship contender. If Allen Iverson truly is the Answer, the Denver Nuggets certainly weren’t interested in finding out what the question was. In contrast to the Lakers, this team has had to prove the doubters wrong every step of the way on their journey to being one of the last four teams standing.

So how do these two teams compare to one another?

Tale of the Tape: The Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 65-17
W-L%: .793
Rank: 2nd

The Lakers played consistently good basketball throughout the course of the regular season. Outside of Laker Nation, the Lakers probably didn’t get quite of enough credit for their accomplishments this season with Lebron James, and to a lesser extent Dwayne Wade and the Celtics’ Big Three garnering most of the media’s attention. They also maintained the best record in the West even with Andrew Bynum missing 32 games leading up to the playoffs.

Pace: 94.4, 5th
O-Rating: 112.7, 3rd
D-Rating: 104.6, 6th
Differential: +8.1 (O-Rating minus D-Rating)

Of the numerous basketball cliches out there, one in particular describes this Lakers team when they are firing on all cylinders. It is the well known saying that ‘their defense creates their offense.’  But for this Lakers squad it really holds true, with Trevor Ariza leading the charge (and earning himself a nice raise in the process going into free agency this season). Ariza, who is the Lakers’ defense personified, gets into the passing lanes, pushes the tempo and finishes way above the rim without ever giving up on a play. When Ariza and the Lakers play inspired basketball, they are really an exciting team to watch.

Offensively, you cannot overlook three time champion and former MVP Kobe Bryant. He draws a huge amount of attention from opposing teams’ defenses and makes life much easier for his teammates to get high-percentage looks. At the same time though, last season’s key acquisition, Pau Gasol, has made it much easier for Bryant to get good looks as well. Having Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum as your backup weapons makes the Lakers a very dangerous team. Add in great perimeter shooting and you have a team that punishes you for doubling to try and stop Bryant. They truly make you pick your poison.

First Round, v. UTA: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. HOU: 4-3

In the first round of the playoffs, the Lakers took care of business fairly efficiently in taking five games to dispatch of the Utah Jazz. However, the conference semifinals provided the Lakers with a much bigger challenge in the Tracy McGrady-less Houston Rockets. When Yao Ming went down for the season after game three, the Lakers and everyone else in the world counted the young and injured team out of the running.

The trouble for the Lakers was that the Rockets didn’t get the memo that everyone else in the world got that the series was over and they played like their (playoff) lives depended on it.  The simple fact that it took the Lakers seven games to move past the Rockets (refer to Lebron James, Mo Williams and the rest of the Cavs to see what a championship team truly looks like) has given legitimacy to the argument that this team is mentally focused enought to win a championship. However the 2007-08 Celtics didn’t exactly cruise to victory against the Hawks or Cavaliers in the first two rounds of the playoffs either.

Tale of the Tape: The Denver Nuggets

Record: 54-28
W-L%: .659
Rank: 5th

The Nuggets played like an entirely different team this season by both addition by subtraction and also by, well, addition. The Nuggets gained by subtracting Allen Iverson, who is the epitome of a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer in decline. Iverson is unwilling to admit that he can no longer carry a team on his back and unable to accept any lesser role. This is probably the ultimate chemistry killer in the locker room. Billups, in an absolute contrast to AI, is the consummate professional and a savvy, championship proven veteran (they don’t call him Mr. Big Shot for nothing). You replace an undersized and disgruntled shoot-first point guard with a professional, pass-first floor general who demands a commitment to defense from his teammates and you have a vastly improved Nuggets squad this year.

Pace: 94.3, 6th
O-Rating: 110.4, 7th
D-Rating: 106.8, 8th
Differential: +3.6

Much like the Lakers, the Nuggets play high tempo basketball and especially push the ball and force the issue on their home court. Defensively, both Nene and Kenyon Martin play physical defense in the paint and tend to force jump shooting big men like Dirk Nowitzki out of their element (although to Dirk’s credit he played phenomenal basketball against Denver in the Western Conference Semifinals). What really stands out when looking over this Denver Nuggets squad is that they played great team defense, which is exactly what they’ll need to do to try and limit Kobe Bryant. Dahntay Jones, despite earning minutes from George Karl based on his perimeter defense, is simply over-matched against Bryant. It must be a concentrated and carefully executed five man strategy if you hope to stop the Black Mamba.

Offensively, this team is a true partnership with Billups and Carmelo Anthony sharing the leadership onus for this team. Billups calls the plays and initiates the offense while Melo is the finisher. Off the bench, J.R. Smith provides instant fire and has matured from playing alongside Billups (although he is still J.R. Smith so keep that in mind). He is prone to occasionally taking ill-advised jumpers or pull-up threes. But when this guy is on, he can absolutely make it rain. Smith is the true X-Factor for the Nuggets offense.

First Round, v. NOH: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. DAL: 4-1

Melo could not being player better basketball this postseason (27.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists on 48/45/83 percent shooting). Him and Dirk really battled last series with Anthony rising to the challenge and hitting big baskets when they mattered most. Chauncey Billups is right there alongside Melo in terms of playoff production (22.1 points, 7.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds on 49/54/96 percent shooting) and impact on ball games. As a result, the Nuggets made quick work of both the Hornets and the Mavericks along the way.

Regular Season Matchups

The Lakers and Nuggets played four regular season games this year, with the Lakers holding the 3-1 advantage. But upon closer examination, the team’s head-to-head play is not so clear-cut.

  • Game One: 11/01/08. Lakers 104, Nuggets 97 (No Billups).
  • Game Two: 11/21/08. Nuggets 90, Lakers 104.
  • Game Three: 02/27/09. Lakers 79, Nuggets 90 (No Bynum).
  • Game Four: 04/09/09. Nuggets 102, Lakers 116.

One of the Lakers’ three wins came against an Iverson-led Nuggets team, which, as discussed earlier, is essentially a different team. Empty win, Lakers 0-0. The second Lakers win was played out by two teams at full strength. Lakers 1-0. The third game involves a Bynum-less Lakers team, which is a different team as well. Lakers 1-0. The fourth and final game was again played out at full strength and again resulted in a Lakers win. Lakers 2-0.

Slam dunk, the Lakers are going to sweep the Nuggets in this series then, right? Not so fast. If you look at regular season games one through four again, paying particular attention to home court (the second team listed above was the home team), the Lakers two wins at full strength were both at the Staples Center. The two games that were thrown out for missing key players both occurred in Denver, where Denver is much more likely to play better basketball. While not providing hard evidence in favor of Denver winning the series, these few games definitely don’t give me any reason to count out the Denver Nuggets yet.

Position Battles

Point Guard: Advantage Nuggets. Hands down, and it’s not even close. Billups is a vastly superior floor general to Derek Fisher, although Billups is a better defensive assignment for Fish than Aaron Brooks proved to be last series. Fisher was absolutely embarrassed at times by Brooks’ speed and looked his age (34). Not to take anything away from Fisher, who is a great piece for the Lakers, but  he is clearly overmatched here.

Shooting Guard: Advantage Lakers. Hands down, and it’s not even close (again). I’m sorry but Bryant is better than Dahntay Jones and J.R. Smith combined. You better hope that Smith is ready to play lock-down defense, because Jones will be into early foul trouble in at least a couple of games in this series. One of the top five players on the planet and a nightmare to guard.

Small Forward: Advantage Nuggets. Again, not to take anything away from Trevor Ariza, but Anthony is clearly the better player. Ariza’s quickness may get the better of Melo at times, but Anthony’s strength will likewise cause problems for Trevor on the defensive end. Melo has forced his name into the discussion of best players in the postseason and I fully expect that trend to continue in the immediate future.

Power Forward: Advantage Lakers. Kenyon Martin is a very physical defender and could possibly cause Pau Gasol to lose his focus and start trying to get the referee’s ear. However, Gasol can stretch the floor and play with his back to the basket with equal skill. Martin is much more limited offensively which allows Gasol to conserve more of his energy for the offensive end.

Center: Push. Bynum has not fully proven that he is healthy and ready to be a factor in this series. Sure, he did play much improved basketball in the later games of the Rockets series, but he was also playing against a team without a true center or anyone who can body up on him (he is a beast). Nene has also not proven that he can be a consistent factor on the road in the post season, which is of crucial importance if the Nuggets hope to have a chance at upsetting the Lakers.

Bench: Push. This is a hard decision to make. Chris ‘the Birdman’ Andersen is the heart and sould of this Nuggets team and he, like Ariza, has earned himself a nice raise this season heading into free agency. He gets the crowd in the game. He blocks shots and alters way more shots than he actually touches. He provides highlight reel finishes in the open court. Besides him, the Nuggets have Anthony Carter, J.R. Smith and Linas Klieza to provide quality minutes.

The Lakers also have an extremely solid bench with depth at every position. Lamar Odom, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton all provide production off the bench and can step in if an injury were to occur to a starting teammate. The Lakers generally only need Odom and other of these guys to have a big game and they are virtually unbeatable. The bench (more so than even the Bynum v. Nene matchup) will be hugely important in this series.

Final Questions

Which team will show the mental toughtness of a championship team, even through adversity?

Can the Denver Nuggets overcome the Lakers’ home court advantage?

Where will game four be played?