Basketball Free For All

With yet another NBA trade deadline coming and going, a lot of excitement and hope was generated among the fans and media.  Some teams were looking for that final piece that makes them championship material.  Others simply were looking for a player that helps them get into the postseason.  Lastly, there were a few who look at this time of the year as the highlight of the season as their team struggles to even be competitive on a nightly basis so might as well position themselves for the upcoming lottery.  Whatever the reasons, all fans hoped their team would have made a trade or two that improved future prospects.  Question is, how often can these deadline deals really be coined successful?

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As we arrive at the mid-point of the season, it becomes apparent that the early season success of a few players is more than just a fluke hot start. These players may have been decent contributors in the past but never gained mainstream attention outside of their own team’s fan base. These are the players that should be considered for the Most Improved Player Award.

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Week 11 was dominated by the Gilbert Arenas saga finally coming to a head, leaving owners with tough decisions to make about whether to hold or fold their Agent Zero hand. More on that dilemma and the fantasy fallout below. Beyond that, we saw Danny Granger and Troy Murphy return to the starting lineup for the Pacers, altering the fantasy landscape in Indy for the thousandth time this season. Along with the Golden State Warriors, the Pacers have been one of the most unpredictable fantasy teams so far this season.

Season Tracker

The 2009-10 season is 44 percent complete.

Week 12 Schedules

Four Games: DET, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, NOR, NYK, OKC, PHX, SAS, UTA, WAS

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, ORL, PHI, SAC, TOR

Two Games: NJN, POR

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 38%) For some inexplicable reason, Hinrich is still under the 40% ownership threshold despite being moved into the starting unit recently. In his eight starts this season, Hinrich averaged 12.1 points on .412/.769 percent shooting, 2.1 threes, 4.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Another key statistic to look at with Captain Kirk is his three point percentage, as the Bulls are desperate for outside shooting. As a reserve, he has shot a pedestrian .322 percent from downtown. As a starter, he has shot an impressive .459 from long range. Hinrich deserves pretty much universal roster consideration.

Erick Dampier (C – 37%) For the entire season, Dampier is putting up top-100 value while providing decent production for a third or fourth string center. His season averages are 8.0 points on .667/.582 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.4 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 turnovers. Dampier is a four category specialist (FG%, REB, BLK, TOs) while being a negative in the remaining five categories. He finally appears to be getting healthy again after having to deal with “wear-and-tear” of the left knee. Give Damp a go if you are looking for traditional big man stats and can handle his low scoring.

Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 27%) There has been widespread speculation that Gomes would be moved into Minnesota’s starting five sometime relatively soon. Regardless of whether or not he is starting, Ryan should get enough burn to provide fantasy value, especially for those looking for decent scoring off the waiver wire. Over the past two games, Gomes has averaged 15.0 points on .458/.875 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Gomes, while normally primarily simply a scorer, has shown flashes of stat-stuffing. Add Ryan if you have a dropable player to see if he can improve upon his recent strong play.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 21%) Some players just don’t get much respect, whether it be in real life or in fantasy basketball. Apparently, Rasual Butler is one of those players as his actual value and ownership percentage are definitely out of whack. Over the past two weeks, a period that saw Butler play in six games and average over 34 minutes per game, he posted top-50 value. During that period Rasual averaged 12.8 points on .467/.857 percent shooting, 2.5 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. Butler is a nice glue guy, providing a nice boost in threes on low turnovers while also providing decent blocks for a guard-eligible player.

Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 21%) Another player that has had a nice run over the past two weeks is Matt Barnes. You may recall Barnes being featured in last week’s preview article by my distinguished colleague, RedHopeful. Pretty much everything Oleh said then still stands. Over the past two weeks, Matt has averaged 13.4 points on .600/.778 percent shooting,1.1 threes, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.4 turnovers.

Rafer Alston (PG – 18%) Alston has to feel like the luckiest player in the NBA right now; it is an absolute certainty. Rafer was waived by the league’s worst team, the 3-33 New Jersey Nets, and signed with the 18-16 Miami Heat, who are currently the fifth best team in the East. In his first game in a Heat uniform (this season), he immediatley leap-frogged both Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers and joined the starting unit. Skip is in line for big minutes for the Heat and should be a good choice for threes, assists and steals if you can handle his offensive field goal percentage.

Ronny Turiaf (PF/C – 6%) It’s always a gamble recommending any Golden State Warrior these days but Turiaf feels like a very strong player for a couple of reasons. First, Anthony “Everyone’s Favorite Sleeper” Randolph recently went down with an ankle injury with no official timetable released yet. However, the injury appears to be relatively serious so we can assume he’ll miss all of this week’s games. Second, fellow big man Andris Biedrins has struggled getting up to speed since returning from his groin injury that sidelined him for most of the season. By default, Turiaf becomes one of the Warriors primary big men in the rotation and he should be an excellent source of blocks off the wire.

Watch List

J.J. Redick (PG/SG – 16%) With Vince Carter out with an injured shoulder, Redick immediately gets upgraded to watch list status. In Carter’s absence, Redick posted a strong line against the Atlanta Hawks dropping 17 points on .583 percent shooting, 3 threes, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. He has even been praised by Coach Stan Van Gundy recently for his play throughout the entire season. In fact, Redick has been really solid over the past four games seeing over 28 minutes per and averaging 16.5 points on .422/.895 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.5 turnovers.

Flip Murray (SG – 5%) If you are looking for cheap scoring off the waiver wire, there may not be a better option out there than Murray. RIght now, Flip is locked-in and playing excellent basketball for the Bobcats. Over the past week, Ronald is ranked well inside of the top fifty players averaging 17.3 points on .550/.933 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.5 turnovers in four games. His percentages are excellent, making his scoring and threes that much more valuable.

A.J. Price (PG/SG – 1%) A.J. officially proved that he belonged in this league after being selected in the second round of this season’s draft. Price set multiple career-highs against the Thunder on Saturday including minutes played, points scored and threes made. In that watershed game, Price posted 23 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 3 threes, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, o blocks and 2 turnovers. With the Pacers going nowhere this season and both Earl Watson and T.J. Ford playing themselves out of the rotation, Price is poised to carve himself a nice niche for the Pacers.

Deep League Special

Donte Greene (SG/SF – 4%) Greene’s window of opportunity is rapidly closing. With Kevin Martin due back sometime relatively soon, Greene will likely take a hit in touches, minutes and production. Thus, Donte should only be viewed as a short-term band-aid in deeper leagues. Over the past two weeks, he has put up top-100 value, making him an extremely valuable pickup in deep formats. In that same span, he averaged11.4 points on .489/1.00 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.0 turnovers.

Keyon Dooling (PG – 2%) At this point in his career, Dooling is a proven commodity, with a decade of experience in the Association. Playing for a relatively young and inconsistent team, he is a veteran presence on and off the court. While he is still rounding into game shape after having offseason hip surgery, Dooling finally showed signs of life recently when he dropped 21 points on the Hornets on Friday. His career per-36 minute stats are 13.3 points on .420/.798 percent shooting, 1.o threes, 2.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.1 turnovers and are a good guide if Dooling were to consistently get big minutes either due to injury of a teammate or simply due to the inconsistent play of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts.

Jon Brockman (SF/PF – 1%) If awesome nicknames were a fantasy category, the Brockness Monster would be a category carrier. But alas, we are left with having to rely on actual production on the basketball court. In that respect, Brockman’s toughness and football-like build have translated to him being an absolute beast on the boards and earning his fresh nickname (12.8 rebounds per-36 minutes). Recently, Brockman even got the starting nod against Denver pushing teammate and general fantasy disappointment Spencer Hawes to the bench. Grab the rebounding monster if you need help on the glass.

Cut List

Larry Hughes (SG/SF – 39%) The Knicks have won three of their last four games. Hughes has seen four consecutive DNP-CDs. Coincidence? I think not. Larry, welcome to Coach Mike D’Antoni’s dog house. Make yourself comfortable; you’re gonna be here a while.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 20%) It is hard to recommend a player for cutting who posted such nice fantasy value earlier in the season. However, barring a trade involving either Elton Brand or Samuel Dalembert, Speights is most likely going to be without fantasy value. If you want further proof that his run is (for now) over, check out his minute totals for his past four games: 6:22; 9:51; 12:01 and 11:11.

Luther Head (PG/SG – 12%) What a difference a week can make. Last week, he was on our Add List. This week he is on our Cut List. That is Luther Head’s career in a nutshell.

Buy Low

Caron Butler (SG/SF – 98%) With Agent Zero suspended indefinitely, Butler has moved up the food chain a notch in Washington. Butler’s best seasons of fantasy value have come with Arenas on the sidelines so there is hope to believe that he will resume his productive ways of the past (top five in per game value in 2007-08 when Arenas only played 13 games; top 30 in per game in 2008-09 when Arenas only played two games). At this point in the season, Butler has posted only top-75 value so it is a decent bet that he will have a much better second half of the season with Arenas most like done for the year.

Pau Gasol (PF/C – 99%) It may be hard to consider top ten player a buy low but that is exactly the case with Pau. Having missed a decent number of games this season with hamstring injuries on both legs, many owners are getting tired of the Lakers’ kid glove treatment of Gasol. When owners are frustrated or are struggling in the standings, you can often get a good deal for the right player. Throw out a solid second-round talent for Pau and see if the other owner bites. You may end up with one of the best big men in both fantasy and in real life.

Sell High

Samuel Dalembert (C – 64%) The problem with selling high is that nobody wants to do it because owning a hot player is so much fun. It’s why we play fantasy sports. However, with a guy like Sammie, if you can get enough value for him you have to pull the trigger. Over the past two weeks, Dally has been a top five talent. Stop and let that sink in. TOP FIVE. During that span, he has averaged 10.9 points on .667/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 3.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. He will never be able to keep this pace up for the rest of the season, especially not with Eddie Jordan waiting in the wings to screw everything up. SD is the qunitessential sell high right now.

Lamar Odom (SF/PF – 89%) With Pau out for at least one more game, your window to move Odom for maximum value is limited. Over the past week, Odom has been positively beastly, putting up a rugged 14.0 points on .548/.700 percent shooting, 0.8 threes, 15.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.0 turnover. Wow. In that span of four games, Odom has been a top ten player in per game value so throw out some trade offers and see if you can get a bona fide stud in return for Mr. Kardashian.

Mystery Man

Gilbert Arenas (PG – 73%) At only 73 percent ownership, the Great Arenas Exodus of 2010 has begun. Let’s face it, the chances of Gilbert playing again this season are slim. However, it is not so cut and dried as to whether he should be simply kicked to the curb; thus, Agent Zero is this week’s Mystery Man. In standard sized, non-keeper, head-to-head leagues Arenas can probably be safely dropped at this point. In roto leagues, where it is easier to carry dead weight, it probably makes sense to stick it out with Gil for a bit until we have more concrete timelines. In deeper formats, it makes more sense to hang on to Gibert if your team can afford to maintain a dead roster spot. Finally, in keeper and dynasty formats, dropping Arenas is not recommended until we hear exactly how harsh his final punsihment will be. Gilbert’s future with the Wizards and the League is truly a mystery at this point so weigh your options carefully before you decide to part ways with this dynamic guard.

It wasn’t all that long ago that fans and analysts alike praised the outstanding play of the Lakers’ bench players, dubbed them the “Bench Mob” and put them among the league’s elite reserve units. This season, the Bench Mob was supposed to continue the tradition of wreaking havoc on opposing teams’ second units while spelling starters Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Ron Artest and Derek Fisher and maintaining or extending leads while the Lakers attempt to defend their title.

Over the past few years, the Bench Mob has been known for being aggressive during their stints on the court, sporting the swagger of a starting unit when they enter a game. The following account from the 2007-08 season summarizes the rise of L.A.’s Bench Mob and the respect they garnered.

A worthy next-generation supporting cast has suddenly appeared in the most appropriate of cities — Los Angeles — where a feisty band of extras serves at the pleasure of a genuine leading man. The Lakers’ Kobe Bryant, as Jordan once did, enriches these lesser lights figuratively (by the grandeur of his talent) and literally (backup point guard Jordan Farmar snagged a Louis Vuitton bag for Christmas), and so they aid him utterly and enthusiastically, while also making sure that their walk-on moments are duly recorded. “If we win a championship,” says reserve guard Sasha Vujacic, “we know it will be mainly because of Kobe. But we will have something to say about it too.”

Source: Jack McCallum, Sports Illustrated

Oh, how times have changed.

That era seems like a distant memory, as the 2009-10 version of the Bench Mob has been ineffective at best and downright detrimental at worst. Before looking at the numbers, let’s meet the Bench Mob first and see who has come and gone over the years.

Meet the Mob

When the Lakers are at full strength this season, the following players are the Lakers’ bench players (listed in descending order according to minutes played this season): Lamar Odom, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Josh Powell, D.J. Mbenga, Adam Morrison and Luke Walton (although Walton has been injured for most of the season with a bum back). If we limit the Lakers’ rotation to only ten guys, the top five bench players are Odom, Brown, Farmar, Vujacic and Powell.

From last season’s Championship squad, the Bench Mob’s top five consisted of Trevor Ariza, Vujacic, Farmar, Walton and Vladimir Radmanovic. From the 2007-08 version, it was Walton, Farmar, Vlad-Rad, Ronny Turiaf and Vujacic. While there has been some turnover with the Bench Mob, it is also clear that there have been some constants with the Bench Mob (Farmar, Vujacic, Walton being the mainstays) making year-to-year comparisons interesting, if not totally legitimate.

With that in mind, the one thing can be analyzed independently of the year-to-year comparisons is the Bench Mob’s performance on the court so far this season.

Bench Mob Production, 2009-10

Taking a look at bench production for this season, the numbers point to the Lakers’ Bench Mob being one of the weaker in the League, no matter how you choose to evaluate their performance. In nearly every category (turnovers being the main exception), the Bench Mob provides below average production relative to the other 29 benches in the League.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Data Source: Hoops Stats

When scrolling down the list, what strikes you most about this version of the Lakers’ Bench Mob is how they excel at nothing and are average to downright pitiful in almost every respect. For a major market team that leads the league in payroll, this should be absolutely unacceptable from their bench players. At the very least, they should excel (i.e. be in the top three) in a few categories and should be average in most others.

All of the categories listed in the table above are self explanatory except for Efficiency, which is Hoops Stats’ simple means of comparing the overall statistical impact of a team based upon numbers available in the standard box score. The comparison can either be cumulative or on a game-by-game basis. The formula itself is Efficiency = ((PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK) – ((FGA – FGM) + (FTA – FTM) + TOV)). By no means is this the perfect system for comparing teams (problems such as it values points/rebounds/assists/steals/blocks equally, does not account for pace, etc.), but it is a quick and dirty, but objective, way of measuring on court performance.

So now focusing on Efficiency, which can be thought of as a method of comparing the total impact of the bench unit, the Lakers are 24th in the League. If you compare the Bench Mob’s Efficiency rating of 29.3 to their opponents’ bench Efficiency rating of 38.0, you get a differential of -8.7. Compare this efficiency differential to prior seasons and you see how the Bench Mob has fallen off this season (2007-08: net efficiency of 0.9th good for 13th overall; 2008-09: net efficiency of 2.1 good for 9th overall). In the prior two seasons, the Lakers’ bench has had a positive impact for the team while on the floor. This season, the Bench Mob has been a net loss for the Lakers relative to other teams’ bench production. Simple as that.

Looking at the entire season’s numbers, the Bench Mob has clearly not been an elite bench unit for the defending world champs. But what kind of an impact does the bench have on the Lakers’ overall success?

A Closer Look: Game-by-Game Production

Taking Hoops Stats’ Efficiency rating one step further, we can break the Bench Mob’s success (and failure) down to a game-by-game basis. When looking at a game-by-game perspective, the Bench Mob is 11-22 in the Efficiency rating battle, meaning that the Lakers have had a greater Efficiency rating (using the same formula listed above) than their opponent’s bench 11 times and a lesser rating 22 times.

In the 11 games in which the Lakers bench won their matchups, the Lakers are 10-1 for a .909 winning percentage. In the 22 games in which the Lakers bench lost their matchups, the Lakers are 17-5 for a .773 winning percentage. The difference is startling. If you think of each of the two winning percentages relative to their overall winning percentage of .818 (27-6), the difference is even more pronounced. When the bench loses the Efficiency battle, it reduces the Lakers’ chance of victory from .818 to .773, for a net loss of -0.45 winning percentage. When the Bench Mob wins the Efficiency front, it boosts their chances to of picking up a W from .818 to a staggering .909, for a net gain of .091 winning percentage relative to the average.

Thus, the Lakers’ bench play affects their ability to win basketball games in a very significant and tangible way.

Payroll v. Production

As alluded to earlier, the Lakers’ salary situation makes their average (or poor, depending upon your perspective) bench play less palatable. The Lakers have the biggest payroll in the league, coming in at a whopping $91,341,066 (salary statistics via Sham Sports). The bench represents $28,452,691 of Los Angeles’ total salary, which is 31 percent of the team’s total salary. In a vacuum, the Lakers’ bench seems to be a decent bargain but a point of comparison would probably provide some insight.

For some perspective, let’s see how the Bench Mob stacks up against the League’s best bench, again measured in terms of net Efficiency. The San Antonio Spurs’ bench is far and away the Association’s best bench, with a net efficiency gain of +21.4 . For more perspective, the next most productive bench is Cleveland’s with a +11.3 so it is safe to say that the Spurs’ bench is the gold standard. In terms of salary, the Spurs bench players account for 32 percent of their total salary. In relative terms, the Spurs are spending the same ratio of their total amount of  team salary on their bench but getting a much better return on their investment. In absolute terms, it’s no contest.

Conclusion

The Lakers’ Bench Mob has been relatively pedestrian this season and has certainly been their weakest bench in three years. They’ve lost the aggressive brand of arrogance past Bench Mob versions have exhibited while on the floor in both crunch time and garbage time. The bench is critical to the any team’s success in the NBA but even more so to a team that is defending a title and gearing up for a deep postseason run. Just imagine if this team had San Antonio’s bench instead of their own! However, this Lakers team doesn’t need the League’s best bench to defend their title — they just need a bench that is slightly above average due to their league-leading starting five.

While their cumulative impact has been disappointing thus far this season, there is some hope for the Lakers faithful. On Sunday, the Lakers routed the Dallas Mavericks with the bench contributing a season-high 66 points and Jordan Farmar tying his career-high of 24 points. This game had the feel of a turning point for the Bench Mob, a game in which the regain their confidence and swagger. If that is the case, the Lakers’ chance of repeating will be infinitely greater than if their early-season woes continue.

The biggest storyline fantasy circles during week four had to be the return of Elton Brand. Over the first ten games of the season, Brand’s owners have practically had to be on suicide watch. Over the past week, however, Brand has been the second best player in fantasy basketball, period (averaged 19.3 points on .523/.867 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 10.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.7 steals, 3.7 blocks and 2.0 turnovers over the past three games). That is a vintage EB line right there.

Another couple of big names made their season debuts this past week as Antawn Jamison and Pau Gasol both made big splashes in their season debuts. Jamison immediately showed everyone why he is one of the most under-appreciated players in fantasy basketball, averaging 22.7 points on .490/.591 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers in three games this season. Gasol also reminded owners why they spent such a high draft pick on him, posting 24 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.o turnovers in his season debut. Welcome back, fellas.

Other owners were not so lucky last week, with Mike Miller, Andrew Bogut, Jameer Nelson, Erick Dampier and Raja Bell all going down with varying injuries and ailments. For more early season excitement, we also had the first in-season trade of the 2009-10 season sending Stephen Jackson and Acie Law to the Bobcats sending Raja Bell and Valdimir Radmanovic to the Warriors. With week four almost in the books, it is time to look ahead and strategize for week five.

Week Five Schedules
Four Games: DAL, DEN, LAC, MEM, MIL, MIN, NJN, NYK, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, SAN, TOR

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAL, MIA, OKC, PHX, UTA, WAS

Two Games: CHI, NOH

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Dahntay Jones (SG/SF – 40%) This season can definitely be labeled a breakout season for Dahntay in Indy, as he is posting career-highs in virtually every single statistical category after signing with the Pacers. For Jones, ride him while he is hot as he should only face increased competition for minutes as the Pacers return to full strength (most notably Mike Dunleavy). Surprisingly, Jones has been effective on both offense and defense (2.0 steals and 1.7 blocks and 19.7 points on .525 percent shooting over the past three).

Drew Gooden (PF/C – 26%) With Dampier out indefinitely with a mystery illness, Gooden has responded in a beastly manner. Over the past week, Gooden has posted averages of 14.8 points on .500/.818 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.0 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.3 blocks and 1. turnovers. Those are very nice numbers for a center three pulled off the waiver wire. Gooden deserves a universal add for his recent strong production.

Jared Dudley (SF/PF – 19%) Dudley is a player that most casual NBA fans are probably not familiar with but would be if he played for a prime-time team like the Lakers. His a role player that stays on the court through pure hustle and effort in the 2008-09 Trevor Ariza mold. Despite the low ownership numbers, Dudley has been climbing up the fantasy rankings (93rd overall in per game value according to Ziguana) with his potent combination of threes and steals with low turnovers.

Steve Blake (PG – 16%) It appears Blake has won Portland’s point guard battle (fow now) making him rosterable if you need assists, threes and free throw percentage. Over the past week, Blake has put up top-1oo value and played 35 minutes per game with free agent addition Andre Miller outside of the top 200 and averaging 25 minutes per game. I’m not cutting Miller in standard leagues yet, but am getting pretty damn close. The only question left is why Portland paid Miller over $20 million over three years to run their second unit? For a team that has seemingly made all the right moves lately, it just seems like they made the move for the sake of making a move and not because it was the best fit for their team.

Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 15%) In his second stint in the NBA, Ilyasova is starting to prove that he belongs in the League and that he deserves universal ownership. Over the past week, Ersan has put up top fifty value averaging 14.8 points on .488/.727 percent shooting, 2.3 threes, 9.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers in four games. This combination of threes and boards from a forward is a very nice addition without having to sacrifice too much in either of the percentages. His strong play has most likely solidified his spot in the Bucks’ starting lineup (started the past three games).

CUT LIST

Jonny Flynn (PG/SG – 78%) With rookies learning the game at the highest level, efficiency and minutes are usually the main impediments to fantasy value. In Flynn’s case, he has gotten decent minutes (28.4 per game in 13 games this season) but has had serious problems with the efficiency. For reference, Flynn has shot .442 percent from the field (.250 percent from three point land) while also averaging more turnovers than assists (3.5 to 3.2 per game). Add in the fact that Ramon Sessions is a more experienced player and actually has some pretty serious game and Flynn is looking more like a long-term project and less like an immediate impact player. Cut bait.

Andray Blatche (PF/C – 48%) Bulletproof had one hell of a run to start this season. With Jamison out with a preseason shoulder injury, Andray stepped it up in a big way posting top-100 value for the first few weeks. Since Antawn’s return to the Wizards’ starting lineup, Blatche’s minutes have dropped considerably (17, 15, 25 minutes in his past three games) and his status has been demoted from universal ownership to waiver wire wonder. Thank him for his service and be ready to pick him up again in the event of another injury to a Wizards forward.

STAY THE COURSE

John Salmons (SG/SF – 87%) John Salmons giveth and he taketh away. This week, Salmons gave two strong performances back-to-back and then followed them up with a stinker. In fact, last week saw the only two game streak in which Salmons shot .500 percent or greater from the field. However, his .182 percent shooting night on Saturday abruptly brought an end to Salmons owners’ happiness. As with before, the counting stats are there but his shooting efficiency has been terrible (.345 this season versus .444 career). Don’t trade Salmons for an inferior player.

Stephen Curry (PG/SG – 66%) Since S-Jax was unceremoniously sent packing last week, Curry has posted some of the best numbers of his career. Over the past week, Curry has averaged 13.0 points on .448/.800 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 3.3 turnovers. The turnovers are a definite concern but as long as he is providing decent counting stats on good percentages it is palatable.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jason Williams (PG – 17%) Another season and another injury for Jameer Nelson. This one (meniscus) promises to keep Nelson on the bench for at least a month. This means second-string point man White Chocolate is now the starting point guard in Orlando and deserves consideration in deep leagues. If the Magic do not end up trading for another PG or signing a free agent floor general, Williams could eventually play his way into wider ownership. Sunday’s 16 point, 5 rebound, 3 assist performance is a step in that direction.

Terrence Williams (SG/SF/PF – 18%) Williams has had a roller-coaster ride of a rookie season so far with his team win-less through thirteen games. Terrence has shown why he was drafted eleventh overall in the 2009 NBA Draft. Williams’ last couple of games have been promising and he could be positively affected by the return of Devin Harris. Williams is worth picking up at this point in deep leagues to see if he can continue and build upon his recent strong play.

Darren Collison (PG/SG – 13%) / Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 3%) These two Hornets guards have both been on our watch list before and most certainly would have been upgraded to the Add List if it wasn’t for the Hornets’ week upcoming schedule. With Chris Paul down for at least a few more weeks, both of these players can provide interim help in the short-term in different categories. If you are looking for assists, points, threes and free throw percentage give Collison a look. If you are looking for threes, points and field goal percentage with low turnovers give the other Thornton an add.

WATCH LIST

James Harden (PG/SG – 33%) With two strong games back-to-back, Harden is one player that may have turned the corner. Sunday’s contest against the Lakers will be a good heat check for Harden. If the rookie posts another strong line in under 30 minutes, he deserves roster consideration. In the past two games, Harden averaged 24.5 points on .600/.900 percent shooting, 5.0 threes per game, 3.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.5 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. Obviously he is going to cool off a bit, but if he can put up numbers anywhere close to this consistently he’d be worthy of a roster spot in all formats.

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 3%) Another rookie coming off of a strong performance against the over-acheiving Rockets is Sacramento Kings forward Omri Casspi. Casspi set a career-high in scoring going for 17 points on .400/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 8 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 1 turnover. Casspi also posted a career-high in minutes, which is a trend to keep an eye on. If the minutes come consistently for Casspi, he should have no problem putting up fantasy-relevant numbers. For now just monitor the situation and be prepared to act if his minutes continue to trend upward.

Every year there are players who will begin the season at a torrid pace. They rebound, steal, block and shoot their way to the top of the fantasy rankings right out of the gate. Conversely, on the less exciting side, there are also players you drafted early hoping they will have a stellar season for your team only to find out that they are anything but the great player you had hoped for.

This dichotomy can be so maddening for some owners that it will cause them to make rash decisions that savvy managers can exploit for their own selfish purposes (winning). Everyone likes a good deal and the fantasy community is no different. If you can find a manager who is tired of watching one of their star players under-perform, offer him a trade for a player(s) of less clout. The idea is to trade for a top-notch type player while he is at his statistical worst, buy low. Or trade away your over-achiever for a slumping stud, sell high.

The Buy Low

Before any trades are proposed, you need to consider a few things about the player(s) you are giving up as well as the player(s) you are receiving. When buying low, consider that you are essentially hunting in the bargain-bin at your local thrift store. The items (players) may have been nice at one time but now are used and a little worn out.

A few things to consider. Is the player coming off a down season that was an anomaly when compared to the rest of his career? Think Josh Smith last year, a year where he had career-lows in basically every statistical category (points, blocks, assists, rebounds) versus his play this year. Hopefully that year was just that, an anomaly, and the player will hopefully bounce back to his previous success of seasons past. Also, consider any injury history. Any player coming off of a major injury or surgery is surely going to have his value discounted at draft time. Finally, the true buy low player, a guy who just flat-out is not playing well at all but has a strong past track record to use as a reference point.

Here are a few buy low candidates to consider early on in the season.

The Injured Player. Kevin Martin and Chris Paul are two fantastic fantasy players that are viable buy low candidates at this point in the season and illustrate the injury aspect well.  No one wants to have an injured player on their roster. Its no fun watching one of your premier players accumulate zeros across the board night after night. After a few days or weeks of having to sit through an injury it can be beneficial to approach a slumping manager with a trade proposal for an injured star.

The other K-Mart has a hairline fracture in his left wrist that required surgery on November 9th. He is due out anywhere from 6-8 weeks but could be out longer as he doesn’t have the best track record for staying healthy. Owners needing a lift in threes, points, and free throw percentage may want to make a play for him. With a guy like Martin, it may make sense to wait a while to let the owner’s frustration grow to the breaking point.

Chris Paul is also out of action due to an ankle sprain and the initial prognoses is that he will be out for approximately one month. Making a trade proposal for CP3 requires a little bit more effort and tact. It is no easy process to get an owner to give up his number one pick, let alone the first or second overall pick in the draft. Paul is most likely only out a few weeks not an extended period so one would have to give up a quality player(s) that are not only healthy but are also producing top tier value. The key here is to not go too overboard in who you are willing to give up. Sure Paul can easily win a number of categories and possibly it all for your team but he isn’t worth it if you have to strip your roster to the bear bones just to acquire him. If Paul’s owner is losing bad it could benefit you to make a play for him ASAP while he is still out for a few weeks and the owner is still antsy to get a productive body in his lineup.

This type of buy low is especially effective when tried on managers at the bottom of the standings. They are more likely to be willing to deal an injured stud for lesser value in order to keep from falling too far behind and out of the playoff hunt.

The Player Returning from Injury. Pretty self explanatory here. Target a player who is just getting ready or has just returned from injury. Anytime a player has an injury that forces them to miss extended amounts of time, he usually comes back rusty and has a few bad games early on. Currently, there are multiple players that fit this bill including Kevin Love, Eric Gordon and Pau Gasol. Gordon and Love are still injured but are due back sooner rather than later and Gasol should be back to return Thursday night against the Bulls.

All three players are productive and can help virtually any team. When they do finally suit up, be sure to monitor their first couple of games. If they start out slow, send a trade proposal to open up tentative trade talks (nothing insulting). Most likely they will regain their form in a few games and will be right back to where they were before their injury. Just don’t wait too long because once they do fully recover, their value will drastically increase and your opportunity to buy low will be closed forcing you to pay full market value to obtain him.

Note: Be more cautious with major structural injuries that require months of rehabilitation as effects can often linger. Think Elton Brand trying to come back from his Achilles injury over the past couple of seasons.

The Slumping Player. Simple, go after any player who is performing below their career averages or your expected averages for this season. The idea here is the law of averages. If a player has performed at a certain (high) level for many years and is currently under-performing, he most likely will pick his game up at some point and eventually will end up performing at or near his career averages. A few players to consider under this model are Brand, Jose Calderon, Thaddeus Young and John Salmons.

All are in major slumps compared to their historical production and could be had on the cheap (well Brand’s window may be closed after his vintage performance against the Bobcats last night: 19 points on .471/.750 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 6 blocks and 1 turnover). One major caveat here is to be careful for a player currently slumping that also just signed a major extension, think Luol Deng in 2008-09, minus the stress fracture. Sometimes players just don’t have that fire in them after the big pay day and it can affect their entire season. For an excellent more in-depth article on Salmons,  check out the latest Great Debate piece.

Other buy lows to consider: Caron Butler, Al Jefferson.

The Sell High

If one of your players is playing such great basketball that it seems unlikely that he will continue to keep pace, then selling high is your best option to get positive returns on your player investment.

The Injury Fill-In. Anytime a starter goes down he opens up a spot for a bench player to shine. They can often be great pick-ups for the short term but will quickly lose their value once the starter returns. One player to unload immediately, like as in yesterday, is Andray Blatche. With a Basketball Monster rank of 65th overall in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 53rd overall in per game value, Blatche’s value is as high as it ever will be. Antawn Jamison is back from a shoulder injury and the party is officially over for Andray. In Jamison’s first game back, Blatche had 6 points and zero rebounds in just over 17 minutes.

Rookies. Rookies have become more intriguing over the past couple of years and are capable of making an immediate fantasy impact. Guys like O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose had managers salivating last season. This year, Tyreke Evans, Blake Griffin (even though he hasn’t even played a game yet) and Brandon Jennings have all been hot commodities. Jennings in particular appears to have been the steal of the draft (in both real life and in fantasy) with an average draft position of 126th overall in Yahoo! leagues. His 55 point outburst against Golden State last week got everyone’s attention and if you are skeptical of his ability to continue at such a high rate, now is the time to start shopping him. His current Ziguana rank is 15th overall. I’m not saying he won’t be great the rest of the year because he easily can be, but consider that it is early in a long season.

Rookies are not used to the physical demands of the NBA and its grueling 82 game schedule. The fabled “rookie wall” is very important to consider. Usually sometime mid-season around the 45-50 game mark, rookies start to slow down and their production drops. It is part of the game, learning how to keep your body healthy for the length of the season and rookies sometimes forget that the season is a marathon not a sprint. Watch out for the rookie wall and consider selling high before it happens to your rooks, especially if you can get a proven stud in return.

The Injury-Prone Player. The classic sell high candidate is the injury-prone player. A guy who always seems to miss time each season but is a strong player when healthy. To look at it from another perspective, they have high per game values but low cumulative values. There are  many players that fall into this category and it can often be tough to cut ties with a player who is playing to his full potential. This season there have been a number of players you could label as injury-prone who are healthy and are rewarding their owners.

Two of the best example are Staples Center big men Chris Kaman and Andrew Bynum. Over the past two seasons combined, they have missed 77 and 79 games respectively. But this year they are both healthy so far and are producing a per game Ziguana rank of 49th and 12th overall, respectively. When they are healthy they can carry your team in blocks and rebounding while providing solid percentages and points. But with multiple, serious injuries in the past, their durability is definitely an issue to consider. Kaman seems to have found his rhythm and is playing very well. Ongoing nagging injuries and simply being old could keep Marcus Camby “day-to-day” for longer than expected making Kaman’s production sustainable for the foreseeable future. Even with Blake Griffin due back next month from injury, expect Kaman’s value to hold strong. Bynum is a little more of a wild card. Two major knee surgeries in the past are signs owners might be a little scared of. However his 20.3 points on .591/.717 percent shooting, 0.0 threes,  11.8 rebounds 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.8 blocks and 2.3 turnovers make Bynum a major sell high candidate, just be sure you get quality value in return for the young center. Also, just remember that Bynum has posted these numbers with Pau on the floor this season, which is another reason to consider selling high on Andrew.

Other sell highs to consider: Marc Gasol, Channing Frye.

Yet another week has passed and there were more changes to the fantasy landscape.  Chris Paul, Travis Outlaw, Josh Howard, Kelenna Azubuike and Marreese Speights went down this week.  Meanwhile, Pau Gasol, Eric Gordon, Courtney Lee and Troy Murphy continued their Mr. Invisible impressions.  At least Antwan Jamison and Rashard Lewis will be sure to return this week.  Also, can’t go without mentioning Brandon Jennings.  He is the reason why NBA League Pass just might be worth it as it’s highly unlikely most of us will even have an opportunity to watch Bucks’ games.

Week Four Schedules

Four Games: ATL, CHA, CLE, DET, HOU, IND, MIA, MIL, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, TOR

Three Games: BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, LAC, LAL, MEM, NJN, NYK, PHI, PHI, SAC, SAS, UTA, WAS

Two Games: MIN

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Will Bynum – He’s got a juicy four game schedule and both  Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton are not expected to play during the road trip.  Although Bynum’s numbers will likely take a hit when Rip gets back, he still might be worth owning as he’ll probably still get around 25 minutes a game and contribute decent scoring stats, assists and steals.

Toney Douglas – Over the last week, Toney has been the Knicks best guard.  It’s not saying much when you check the competition but it is very noteworthy.  D’Antoni’s grey is becoming more noticeable by the day and he’s tired of it.  Currently, he is re-evaluating the entire rotation and it is expected he’ll go with the youth.  I expect Toney to continue to get strong playing time and help fantasy owners in scoring stats, efficiency and steals.

Rudy Fernandez/Martell Webster – Funny how in one week Martell goes from the drop list to the add list.  Thanks Outlaw!  With Travis sidelined for at least 6 weeks, both of these guys will probably be worth owning.  Martell has a golden opportunity to really seize some time as it’s not expected the Blake/Miller/Roy trio to continue starting.  If Webster is able to start knocking his shot down with any regularity, he’ll put up very serviceable numbers across the board.  Rudy on the other hand is a perfect fit for the 6th man so that should continue.  However, his minutes are going to get a bump up so nab him if you really need help with 3’s and steals.

Chris Douglas-Roberts – He licked the swine flu in no time and has already logged 35 minutes in the Nets last game.  Pick him up if he’s available because the Nets are in dire need of his potential contributions.  He’ll be rewarding owners as soon as this coming week in points, efficiency, steals and rebounds.

Thabo Sefolosha – There is no denying it, he has a major role in the Thunder’s rotation because of his defensive abilities.  It’s a great sign that he’s still been getting a ton of time even though his shot has been way off of late (6-25 in the last 4 games).  While he’ll never be a volume shooter, he will help fantasy managers in 3’s, boards and defensive categories.

CUT LIST

DJ Augustin – Seems DJ is going through the motions of a second year player.  There were high hopes entering the season but he’s gotten off to a slow start and it appears Larry Brown won’t help him.  The other night, DJ took a shot off a pick and roll instead of passing to the open player and Coach promptly yanked him.  With Raja Bell attempting to play through his injuries and Flip Murray back, Augustin will be pressed to find consistent minutes.

Chris Duhon – Chris was never meant to be a fantasy relevant player, but that changed the day he put on a Knick uniform.  While he has the ability to put up some nice numbers on occasion, he hasn’t even been close thus far this season.  D’Antoni hasn’t kicked him to the curb yet, but I expect the next game or two to be a nice barometer for the next few months.  If he shows signs of snapping out of it, hang on to him as Coach will undoubtedly stick with him.  If not, send him packing.

Josh Howard - Well that didn’t take long.  Howard is already out indefinitely with rumors claiming he’ll be out until the end of December.  Considering the surgery was back in May and he’s still not right, I don’t suggest standard leagues to stick by this brittle body.

WATCH LIST

Darren Collison – Darren might be a nice plug in option for at least this upcoming week, but I’m not sold on him.  He struggled in his first start against the Hawks and scary as it sounds, Bobby Brown outplayed him.  It’s easy to envision him going from a bad game to average to bad to good to bad again.  Also, after this week, the Hornets will have two straight weeks of just 2 games so I assume there should be a better interim option out there at this time.

JJ Hickson – The Cavaliers moved him into the starting lineup to shake things up a bit after a disappointing start to the year.  Somewhat surprisingly, JJ has come through with flying colors.  In their last game against Utah, he put up 20 points, but more importantly, he received 38 minutes on the floor.  If this continues, then he’ll most likely be worthy of ownership in standard sized leagues.

Marcus Thornton - Last week, I had him in my Deep League Specials section, but this week he gets a bump up.  It’s no secret that the Hornets are struggling especially on the offensive end.  Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, Devin Brown and James Posey have looked awful too many times.  With Jeff Bower responsible for drafting Marcus, I believe he’ll get his share of chances at significant playing time rewarding owners with points, 3’s, FT% and steals.

STAY THE COURSE

Andris Biedrins – Horrid start for sure.  Combine that with a lousy back injury that seemed to be perpetuated by Nellie’s lack of sense, he’s giving fantasy owners absolutely nothing right now.  However, according to Ziguana,  he put up Round 5 value last season.  Considering the Warriors have no other viable center, he’ll jump back into the rotation once he’s deemed healthy.

John Salmons – He couldn’t have gotten off to a worst start – under 32% from the field thus far.  However, don’t make the mistake on either dropping him or selling low as he’s a proven efficient shooter.  Despite his struggles, he’s averaging 38 minutes a game so it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a valuable asset on your team.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Eddy Curry, Jordan Hill – I’ve got a strong feeling one of these two guys will be relevant as soon as this coming week.  David Lee at center seems worse than last year as his opposition is running layup drills around him.  With Darko Milicic apparently not a factor, one can expect D’Antoni to next look to these two guys.  Hill has shown flashes of late that he’s got some game but he still has a number of things to learn (as indicated by his foul rate).  Curry has been a laughing stock for such a long time but the Knicks are desperate.  He’s lost a ton of weight and might be serviceable until his next injury.

CJ Watson – In the world of Nellie, even fodder can turn into gold.  Not surprisingly, Stephen Curry has already landed on the end of the bench so CJ has been able to receive some fantastic minutes the last two games (27 and 34).  Subsequently, he has taken full advantage of it by playing very well and there is a decent chance it’ll continue in the short term.

I must admit, originally this post was intended to analyze Allen Iverson playing in Memphis and whether this was a good or bad thing (take your pick), in both real life and in fantasy basketball. But things often change quickly in the basketball world (if you want proof just ask Byron Scott)  and the Answer has left us with nothing but questions.

Take a look at the Grizzlies’ recent track record.

The Memphis Grizzlies haven’t been to the playoffs in two years – not even close – and in fact, how their last winning season (2006) coincidentally was the last time they made the NBA’s second season. There is also the fact that the Grizzlies have turned over every single player from that last playoff roster (although I’m sure they managed to save a little money by recycling those items with the last name “Gasol” on them).

So with a group of fresh new faces and young talent, the Memphis Grizzlies, along with countless fantasy managers, looked forward to a bright future in a new season. This year was the year they would showcase up-and-coming talent such as Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, and O.J. Mayo. This year was going to be the year they would make a run at the playoffs.

But a funny thing happened to Grizzlies owner Michael Heisley at the end of last season – he made a stop by his accountant’s office and saw the books. And he wasn’t happy.

The Grizzlies weren’t making money. And how does an NBA franchise go about making money in this day and age? It sells tickets. But the Grizzlies finished 29th out of 30 teams in league attendance for the 2008-09 season, both in averages and totals. No tickets – no money. Simple formula. And Heisley knew it all too well.

So, he immediately decided to become one of a dozen NBA owners who are currently tapped into a $200 million dollar line of credit offered up by the NBA (yes…that’s 200, followed by six zeros). His franchise would receive anywhere between $13 to $20 million dollars to use in any way he saw fit – no limitations, no special clauses. However he wanted.

Now he had the cash and the desire to go looking for a player – someone to help bolster this roster, to push it over the top. Heisley goes out and signs Zach Randolph, a high usage guy (28.2 percent, which is good for ninth overall among active players), but a high caliber player nonetheless.

“Ah,” thought the masses, “now he’s done. He’s found the combination he was looking for – a high quality player, with a young, up-and-coming supporting cast. Now he’s primed to make a run back into the playoffs.”

But Heisley had something else in mind. Heisley still had that account ledger burned into his memory. Heisley still felt he needed to sell tickets. And no matter how you spin it, Zach Randolph is not a high marketable ticket-selling commodity. “Z-Bo” doesn’t put warm bodies in the seats with his charm and debonair.

Enter AI.

Remember, Iverson himself said in a recent interview with ESPN, that he wasn’t happy coming off the bench in Detroit. In fact, he was very specific about it:

Allen Iverson calls his one season in Detroit the “worst year of my career” and claims team officials and coach Michael Curry “lied” to him about coming off the bench instead of starting.

“They told me, straight up, ‘Allen, we would never disrespect you or your career like that,’ by making me come off the bench,” Iverson said in an interview with ESPN.com Page 2 columnist Scoop Jackson. “That’s what they told me to my face. And after that, I never thought about it again. I just went back to playing. Then, they came to me saying that they felt it would be in the ‘best interest of the team’ if I came off of the bench behind Rip [Richard Hamilton].

“… After that, they told me that if I didn’t come off the bench, the team was going to lie down on [not play with] me. … When he told me that, that’s when I felt that this was the worst career move I’d ever made and it was the worst year of my career.”

Source: ESPN

Flash forward to November 7th of this year:

A frustrated Allen Iverson has left the Memphis Grizzlies and is not expected to return anytime soon, if at all, a source close to the situation told Yahoo! Sports on Saturday.

The Grizzlies granted Iverson a leave of absence to allow him to return to his offseason home in Atlanta. The source said Iverson wants to clear his head and is extremely unhappy about the lack of communication with Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins over his playing time and role with the team.

Source: Yahoo! Sports

Sound familiar? Like, maybe the Grizzlies “lied” to Allen Iverson about potentially starting him in Memphis?

Think about it – Iverson himself has never changed his story. He’s never changed the perception he has of himself as a starter. Compare what he said in his ESPN interview to what he said later in the Yahoo! Sports article:

“I’m not a reserve basketball player,” Iverson said. “I’ve never been a reserve all my life and I’m not going to start looking at myself as a reserve.”

Source: Yahoo! Sports

As high and mighty as we may all want to be when talking about Allen Iverson, the fact of the matter is he’s never passed himself off as something he’s not – a role player, a “sixth man”, a “glue guy”. He’s never flip-flopped, saying one thing and doing another. And as conceited as he sounds, he has never once indicated that he didn’t mind not starting.

And now, he’s extremely frustrated that he’s not getting what he wants.

Spoiled? Yes. Conceited? Quite possibly.But you know what? He may be right.

There’s that signpost up ahead – yes, we’re crossing into The Twilight Zone.

It wasn’t Iverson who went to the Grizzlies looking desperately for a job. It wasn’t Iverson who felt he needed to be in Memphis to resurrect his career. It wasn’t Iverson looking for one last opportunity to get into the playoffs, when even the snowball had a better chance in hell. It wasn’t Iverson who felt he needed to sell tickets.

No tickets – no money. Simple formula.

This recent chain of events in Allen Iverson’s “saga” should surprise no one. It certainly doesn’t surprise him. He feels written off by most of the media anyway. Posts and news flashes had him contemplating retirement and walking away from the game for good the day he left the Grizzlies for Atlanta!

But who wouldn’t walk away? After being “lied” to, what now seems to be a second time? After being used as a gimmick to simply boost ticket sales for a team that has been losing money since 2001? A team who might break even this year?

I dare say that Allen Iverson may actually be doing the right thing in walking away from the Grizzlies, and possibly the NBA. He’s standing up for something. He’s making a statement.

But it’s not a statement for egotistical, self-centered, spoiled brats to say they’re right, and we’re all wrong. It’s not a message that being conceited is good, while showing humbleness is not.

It’s a statement about the truth. And it’s a truth that has been laid out there since day one – since the first time Allen Iverson stepped onto that floor in Philadelphia – since his roller coaster days in Denver – since “the worst time of his career” in Detroit. And now, during his short stint with the Grizzlies.

“I’m not a reserve basketball player,” Iverson said. “I’ve never been a reserve all my life and I’m not going to start looking at myself as a reserve.”

We can sit here all day and debate Allen Iverson’s character with regards to that statement. But the fact is, it’s the truth! And it’s a truth that nobody seems interested in reporting – Not Yahoo! Sports, not ESPN, and certainly not Heisley and the Memphis Grizzlies.

So dear reader, since you now know the entire set of circumstances that caused events to play out the way they did, does it change your perception of the situation? It shouldn’t change your perception of Allen Iverson the person – even I have a few choice, colorful metaphors with regards to AI, which could easily get me in trouble with my editor while testing the boundaries of free speech.

But who is to blame here? Who is really to blame? Allen Iverson? A man who has worn his ego like a badge his entire career, never once trying to hide the fact – or Heisley and the Memphis Grizzlies, for trying to be something they just aren’t – a suitable fit for a player the likes of Allen Iverson.

And while you read, and re-read, and fact check, and do your own research and digging in order to come to your own conclusion, the question will remain: is this the end for Allen Iverson?

At this point, only he knows. He is, after all, The Answer.

With the top two seeds still alive and kicking in the Western Conference, both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets avoided upsets on their way to the Western Conference Finals. However, both teams took divergent routes this season to arrive at the same destination; the doorstep of the Promised Land.

For the Lakers, it seems as though their season was predestined from the moment training camp began. Kobe Bryant and company finished the season with the second best record in the league, second only to Eastern Conference power house, the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Lakers also sported high profile wins against some of the toughest competition this season and stole a game from the Cavs at the Q (39-2 record at home this season, with the Lakers being the only team able to dethrone the King at home;  The Philadelphia 76′ers beat the Cavaliers at home in the final game of the season by one point with Lebron James in street clothes).

For the Nuggets, the season started ominously with the front office kicking Marcus Camby to the curb for peanuts (well, salary cap relief). At that time, the Nuggets faithful were despairing the loss of their defensive anchor for nothing in return. Little did they know that the front office had an ace up their sleeve and would pull-off one of the best trades since the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol from Memphis last season.

In what has proven to be a franchise-altering move, the Nuggets shipped out Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess (who was ultimately waived and re-signed with Detroit for a better shot at winning a title… whoops). Since that time, the Nuggets have gone from possible lottery team to legitimate championship contender. If Allen Iverson truly is the Answer, the Denver Nuggets certainly weren’t interested in finding out what the question was. In contrast to the Lakers, this team has had to prove the doubters wrong every step of the way on their journey to being one of the last four teams standing.

So how do these two teams compare to one another?

Tale of the Tape: The Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 65-17
W-L%: .793
Rank: 2nd

The Lakers played consistently good basketball throughout the course of the regular season. Outside of Laker Nation, the Lakers probably didn’t get quite of enough credit for their accomplishments this season with Lebron James, and to a lesser extent Dwayne Wade and the Celtics’ Big Three garnering most of the media’s attention. They also maintained the best record in the West even with Andrew Bynum missing 32 games leading up to the playoffs.

Pace: 94.4, 5th
O-Rating: 112.7, 3rd
D-Rating: 104.6, 6th
Differential: +8.1 (O-Rating minus D-Rating)

Of the numerous basketball cliches out there, one in particular describes this Lakers team when they are firing on all cylinders. It is the well known saying that ‘their defense creates their offense.’  But for this Lakers squad it really holds true, with Trevor Ariza leading the charge (and earning himself a nice raise in the process going into free agency this season). Ariza, who is the Lakers’ defense personified, gets into the passing lanes, pushes the tempo and finishes way above the rim without ever giving up on a play. When Ariza and the Lakers play inspired basketball, they are really an exciting team to watch.

Offensively, you cannot overlook three time champion and former MVP Kobe Bryant. He draws a huge amount of attention from opposing teams’ defenses and makes life much easier for his teammates to get high-percentage looks. At the same time though, last season’s key acquisition, Pau Gasol, has made it much easier for Bryant to get good looks as well. Having Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum as your backup weapons makes the Lakers a very dangerous team. Add in great perimeter shooting and you have a team that punishes you for doubling to try and stop Bryant. They truly make you pick your poison.

First Round, v. UTA: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. HOU: 4-3

In the first round of the playoffs, the Lakers took care of business fairly efficiently in taking five games to dispatch of the Utah Jazz. However, the conference semifinals provided the Lakers with a much bigger challenge in the Tracy McGrady-less Houston Rockets. When Yao Ming went down for the season after game three, the Lakers and everyone else in the world counted the young and injured team out of the running.

The trouble for the Lakers was that the Rockets didn’t get the memo that everyone else in the world got that the series was over and they played like their (playoff) lives depended on it.  The simple fact that it took the Lakers seven games to move past the Rockets (refer to Lebron James, Mo Williams and the rest of the Cavs to see what a championship team truly looks like) has given legitimacy to the argument that this team is mentally focused enought to win a championship. However the 2007-08 Celtics didn’t exactly cruise to victory against the Hawks or Cavaliers in the first two rounds of the playoffs either.

Tale of the Tape: The Denver Nuggets

Record: 54-28
W-L%: .659
Rank: 5th

The Nuggets played like an entirely different team this season by both addition by subtraction and also by, well, addition. The Nuggets gained by subtracting Allen Iverson, who is the epitome of a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer in decline. Iverson is unwilling to admit that he can no longer carry a team on his back and unable to accept any lesser role. This is probably the ultimate chemistry killer in the locker room. Billups, in an absolute contrast to AI, is the consummate professional and a savvy, championship proven veteran (they don’t call him Mr. Big Shot for nothing). You replace an undersized and disgruntled shoot-first point guard with a professional, pass-first floor general who demands a commitment to defense from his teammates and you have a vastly improved Nuggets squad this year.

Pace: 94.3, 6th
O-Rating: 110.4, 7th
D-Rating: 106.8, 8th
Differential: +3.6

Much like the Lakers, the Nuggets play high tempo basketball and especially push the ball and force the issue on their home court. Defensively, both Nene and Kenyon Martin play physical defense in the paint and tend to force jump shooting big men like Dirk Nowitzki out of their element (although to Dirk’s credit he played phenomenal basketball against Denver in the Western Conference Semifinals). What really stands out when looking over this Denver Nuggets squad is that they played great team defense, which is exactly what they’ll need to do to try and limit Kobe Bryant. Dahntay Jones, despite earning minutes from George Karl based on his perimeter defense, is simply over-matched against Bryant. It must be a concentrated and carefully executed five man strategy if you hope to stop the Black Mamba.

Offensively, this team is a true partnership with Billups and Carmelo Anthony sharing the leadership onus for this team. Billups calls the plays and initiates the offense while Melo is the finisher. Off the bench, J.R. Smith provides instant fire and has matured from playing alongside Billups (although he is still J.R. Smith so keep that in mind). He is prone to occasionally taking ill-advised jumpers or pull-up threes. But when this guy is on, he can absolutely make it rain. Smith is the true X-Factor for the Nuggets offense.

First Round, v. NOH: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. DAL: 4-1

Melo could not being player better basketball this postseason (27.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists on 48/45/83 percent shooting). Him and Dirk really battled last series with Anthony rising to the challenge and hitting big baskets when they mattered most. Chauncey Billups is right there alongside Melo in terms of playoff production (22.1 points, 7.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds on 49/54/96 percent shooting) and impact on ball games. As a result, the Nuggets made quick work of both the Hornets and the Mavericks along the way.

Regular Season Matchups

The Lakers and Nuggets played four regular season games this year, with the Lakers holding the 3-1 advantage. But upon closer examination, the team’s head-to-head play is not so clear-cut.

• Game One: 11/01/08. Lakers 104, Nuggets 97 (No Billups).
• Game Two: 11/21/08. Nuggets 90, Lakers 104.
• Game Three: 02/27/09. Lakers 79, Nuggets 90 (No Bynum).
• Game Four: 04/09/09. Nuggets 102, Lakers 116.

One of the Lakers’ three wins came against an Iverson-led Nuggets team, which, as discussed earlier, is essentially a different team. Empty win, Lakers 0-0. The second Lakers win was played out by two teams at full strength. Lakers 1-0. The third game involves a Bynum-less Lakers team, which is a different team as well. Lakers 1-0. The fourth and final game was again played out at full strength and again resulted in a Lakers win. Lakers 2-0.

Slam dunk, the Lakers are going to sweep the Nuggets in this series then, right? Not so fast. If you look at regular season games one through four again, paying particular attention to home court (the second team listed above was the home team), the Lakers two wins at full strength were both at the Staples Center. The two games that were thrown out for missing key players both occurred in Denver, where Denver is much more likely to play better basketball. While not providing hard evidence in favor of Denver winning the series, these few games definitely don’t give me any reason to count out the Denver Nuggets yet.

Position Battles

Point Guard: Advantage Nuggets. Hands down, and it’s not even close. Billups is a vastly superior floor general to Derek Fisher, although Billups is a better defensive assignment for Fish than Aaron Brooks proved to be last series. Fisher was absolutely embarrassed at times by Brooks’ speed and looked his age (34). Not to take anything away from Fisher, who is a great piece for the Lakers, but  he is clearly overmatched here.

Shooting Guard: Advantage Lakers. Hands down, and it’s not even close (again). I’m sorry but Bryant is better than Dahntay Jones and J.R. Smith combined. You better hope that Smith is ready to play lock-down defense, because Jones will be into early foul trouble in at least a couple of games in this series. One of the top five players on the planet and a nightmare to guard.

Small Forward: Advantage Nuggets. Again, not to take anything away from Trevor Ariza, but Anthony is clearly the better player. Ariza’s quickness may get the better of Melo at times, but Anthony’s strength will likewise cause problems for Trevor on the defensive end. Melo has forced his name into the discussion of best players in the postseason and I fully expect that trend to continue in the immediate future.

Power Forward: Advantage Lakers. Kenyon Martin is a very physical defender and could possibly cause Pau Gasol to lose his focus and start trying to get the referee’s ear. However, Gasol can stretch the floor and play with his back to the basket with equal skill. Martin is much more limited offensively which allows Gasol to conserve more of his energy for the offensive end.

Center: Push. Bynum has not fully proven that he is healthy and ready to be a factor in this series. Sure, he did play much improved basketball in the later games of the Rockets series, but he was also playing against a team without a true center or anyone who can body up on him (he is a beast). Nene has also not proven that he can be a consistent factor on the road in the post season, which is of crucial importance if the Nuggets hope to have a chance at upsetting the Lakers.

Bench: Push. This is a hard decision to make. Chris ‘the Birdman’ Andersen is the heart and sould of this Nuggets team and he, like Ariza, has earned himself a nice raise this season heading into free agency. He gets the crowd in the game. He blocks shots and alters way more shots than he actually touches. He provides highlight reel finishes in the open court. Besides him, the Nuggets have Anthony Carter, J.R. Smith and Linas Klieza to provide quality minutes.

The Lakers also have an extremely solid bench with depth at every position. Lamar Odom, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton all provide production off the bench and can step in if an injury were to occur to a starting teammate. The Lakers generally only need Odom and other of these guys to have a big game and they are virtually unbeatable. The bench (more so than even the Bynum v. Nene matchup) will be hugely important in this series.

Final Questions

Which team will show the mental toughtness of a championship team, even through adversity?

Can the Denver Nuggets overcome the Lakers’ home court advantage?

Where will game four be played?