Wondering what will be the effects of all the major deals prior to today’s deadline? Well, worry no more as Justin and I are here to help clear up any confusion. I’ll handle the relevant fantasy perspective while Justin will tackle the realistic implications in a subsequent article. If we happen to miss anything or you simply have a question, as always, feel free to leave a comment below.
All the hype surrounding the collaboration between Mark Cuban and Jerry Jones in bringing the 2010 All-Star Game to Dallas wasn’t completely misguided, as the event drew a record crowd of 108,713 people to Cowboys Stadium. The entirety of the weekend proved to be more of a letdown than anything though, with two events in particular standing out as big-time busts.
After week twelve, we’ve officially reached the half-way point of the regular season, which means it is mid-season adjustment time. Now is a perfect time to evaluate your team’s cumulative performance and assess your strengths and weaknesses. For head-to-head leagues, check your punting strategy and consider whether it makes sense to adjust your strategy going forward. For roto leagues, now might be time to consider big trades to shore up any weaknesses. Any team can be improved with the right moves; just don’t make the classic mistake of making a move for the sake of, well, making a move.
Well we’re more than a quarter through the season so it’s probably going to get more difficult finding significantly helpful players if you participate in active leagues. Instead, now is the time to keep a close eye on injuries. When a player goes down or is just hobbling, it usually means something positive for at least one of his teammates. Another item to keep in mind is that December 15th is the first day players signed this past off season can be dealt. Between now and the trade deadline (February 18th), expect teams to maneuver to either put themselves in better position for the playoffs or wave the white flag and start thinking about next year.
Week Eight Schedules
Four Games: CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, NOH, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, TOR, WAS, UTA
Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, GSW, MIA, MIL, PHX, SAS
Two Games: NONE
ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)
Erick Dampier (C – 34%) – If your team needs help with rebounds or blocks, Dampier is your man. Despite the glitch with his arm over a few weeks ago, he’s played extremely well when he’s gotten the minutes, as evidenced by the 35 rebounds the last two games. Without a doubt, he appears to be a contract year player so take advantage of him the rest of this season. Just keep in mind there will be matchups that limit him in certain games like against the Suns, Warriors or Knicks.
Jarrett Jack (PG/SG – 27%) – If your team is in need of guard help, you should pounce on Jack immediately. There is a good chance Jose Calderon might be missing a ton of time in the coming future as his hip is giving him problems. If he does miss significant time, the Jack-of-all-trades will be a wonderful source of points, assists, 3’s and FT% – everything you want out of a starting PG.
Joel Przybilla (C – 36%) – It’s rare to have possibly two excellent center prospects sitting on the waiver wire, but that’s what you may have this week. With just a 36% ownership, it’s obvious a number of fantasy managers haven’t jumped all over the Vanilla Gorilla upon hearing about Greg Oden going down for the rest of the year. When Oden has missed time in the past, Joel has stepped up and contributed excellent boards and solid blocks. Portland will lean on him heavily the rest of the year; consequently, so should you.
Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 23%) – So far this season, Brandon has done everything in his power to try to force himself off of most rosters. However, he continues to be a tough habit to kick. Why? Opportunity. Danny Granger is in the midst of missing anywhere from 4 to 6 weeks at the least. Meanwhile, Mike Dunleavy is going to continue to slowly be worked back into starter-like usage. Lastly, Dahntay Jones doesn’t possess a strong perimeter game, but more importantly, took a hard fall in last night’s game hurting his shoulder. Although he says he’s fine, he could be slowed down enough this week whereby Rush emerges as a fantastic contributor during the upcoming 4 game week.
CJ Watson (PG/SG – 15%) – I’m confused by the low ownership of Mr. Watson. I guess we need to call into Sherlock Holmes to solve this mystery, even though it doesn’t appear too mystifying. Since getting over the swine flu, CJ Watson has played fantastic ball. In the last 8 games, ziguana.com has him ranked as the 33rd best player as he’s put up solid numbers in all 9 standard categories. With the minutes he’s been getting, it’s obvious Nellie and crew have an affinity for him so go ride this guy while he’s hot!
CUT LIST
Will Bynum (PG/SG – 31%) – The last few games, “Will the Thrill” has been sidelined with a bum ankle. More troubling, with the Pistons on the verge of getting Richard Hamilton and Ben Gordon back and Rodney Stuckey finally hitting shots, Bynum’s minutes appear headed back to the low 20 range. If you do the math, his nice run appears to be over. Just keep him in mind the next time you hear about any injury/trade rumors regarding the Piston’s back court.
Nate Robinson (PG/SG – 36%) – If the 5 straight DNP’s haven’t helping you decide, let me tell you it’s time to move on. The final straw appeared to be fraternizing with Dwight Howard prior to the start of a game against the Magic. D’Antoni has recently stated he doesn’t plan on changing things either. Why should he? The Knicks are currently on their best winning streak since D’Antoni’s arrival in the Big Apple. I don’t have to remind anyone that Nate should be picked up at the first signs of court time considering his fantasy explosiveness.
Al Thornton (SF/PF – 58%) – This drop is more in line with the thinking that owners should be preparing to cut ties with Al in the coming weeks. Although Blake Griffin’s return has recently been delayed, Coach Dunleavy has expressed he might be the teams new starting forward. If Camby doesn’t get traded, that should spell the end for Thornton’s significance in standard leagues.
WATCH LIST
Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 5%) – It’s a shame the Israeli sensation can’t get off the watch list, but the depth of the Sacramento Kings is to blame. Regardless, he should continue to be an asset for points, 3’s, FG% and rebounds. Lately his defensive numbers have vanished, but I expect him to start contributing in these areas again considering his length and style of play. The big question mark is the inevitable return of Kevin Martin, but worry about that when the time comes.
Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 9%) – “Pyscho T” appears to have carved a consistent role off the Pacers bench. The last 3 games, he’s averaged over 17 points, 7 boards and 1.6 steals. Think DeJuan Blair here because low minutes (low 20s) won’t kill his value. This guy gets it done and he could help you if you’re pressed for forward production.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (SF/PF – 4%) – Usually when you’re one of the coaches favorites and get over 30 minutes a game, you’re worth owning in standard leagues. However, this Prince isn’t the case. He is the Bucks no glory guy where he’ll play tough defense and bring fantastic intensity – too bad that rarely translates well for fantasy purposes. However, despite this, he’s bound to fall into some numbers. Deep leaguers should definitely considering owning him, but standard leagues should probably just pay attention to whether he can get into any kind of groove regarding any type of production in coming games.
Luke Ridnour (PG – 39%) – There is no other explanation other than Luke has found the force. Through more than the quarter of this season, he just can’t miss as evidenced by the 51.8 FG%. His previous season high? 43.3%. The reason he’s on the watch list though is playing time. As the Bucks have gotten healthier, his minutes have dropped measurably (under 18 the last 4 games). Most players can’t do a whole lot with limited time so expect Luke to follow suit shortly.
Martell Webster (SG/SF – 10%) – I’m kind of getting tired about writing about this guy, but due to the rash of Portland injuries, he’s borderline worth owning in standard leagues. He’s semi-capable of doing a lot of things: scoring, 3’s, rebounds and defensive stats, but, for whatever reason, he can’t do any of them consistently. Perhaps someone/something will get through to him where that’ll change, however, don’t hold your breath as I expect his maddening play to continue.
STAY THE COURSE
Mario Chalmers (PG – 65%) – Admittedly Mario hasn’t found his groove for much of the entire first quarter of the season, but don’t give up hope. I expect Coach Spo’ to attempt to get him going as the season progresses plus Rio will probably stop getting into so much foul trouble early on in games. His outside jumper is much more efficient this season and with no real challengers to his skill set, Chalmers will continue to be given significant time.
Boris Diaw (SF/PF – 77%) – The arrival of Stephen Jackson has perhaps put Diaw into a noticeable funk, as evidenced by a drop in his numbers across the board. It’s not too surprising that his usage would suffer, but don’t make too much out of this in such a small sample size. First and foremost, realize that he’s currently in the midst of a significant slump as his shot hasn’t been falling. Considering the Bobcats have no other decent options at PF his minutes will continue to be strong so just ride this out.
COMING BACK FROM INJURY
Plonden’s mentions of Yi Jianlian (PF – 1%) and Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 40%) still apply. Also, now is the time to probably grab Jameer Nelson (PG – 66%) if he happens to be available.
DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS
Jose Juan Barea (PG – 5%) – Recently, Mr. Barea has supplanted Rodrigue Beaubois in the Maverick’s starting lineup. Prior to that, he had a 3 game stretch of non-existent play so it’s conceivable another owner let him go. Considering Howard’s still coming back from injury and the Coach’s penchant for Jose, he could be useful in the short term for some points, 3’s, assists and steals.
Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 4%) – Really wanted to put “Buckets” on the watch list, but considering that many deep leaguers probably have recently let him go, I wanted him in this section of the article. Thornton has a 4 game week coming up and his shot has recently returned. I expect at least solid points and 3’s out of him, but look for more. Chris Paul has been enamoured with this kid since he was drafted and is recently trying to get him to do more – rebound, drive to the basket, etc. Hopefully this translates into better boards, steals and a more meaningful FT% in the near future.
Damien Wilkins (SG/SF – 1%) – If Ryan Gomes‘ ankle/knee injury last night forces him to miss any time, Damien looks to be the beneficiary. He’ll give a little bit of everything, but most likely it’ll be short lived as Gomes’ injury didn’t appear to be serious.
Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 1%) – Almost forgot to add this guy – thanks for the reminder Andrew! Recently, Wright has gotten solid run for a few reasons. One, Quentin Richardson continues to miss time due to injury. Two, Wright seems to have improved his play including an improved jumper and better decision making. He may be indeed be worth a speculative add if you have the roster space.
The NBA basketball season is underway and with that a number of us are participating in various fantasy leagues. It’s obviously an exciting time as we get to see how our newly drafted teams kick off the year. A few will be happy with the initial results, but most of us will have qualms about at least a player or two on our roster. To add to the confusion, there are several guys just sitting on the waiver wire begging to picked up after putting up an enticing line or two. Should we jump the gun and pick them up? Or will we regret our decision and feel like the league’s laughing stock?
Since most of us play in standard sized leagues (12 teams each with 13 players), I’m going to gear the examples in this article towards them. Before you pick up that alluring free agent, I want you to ask yourself 3 questions.
First, regarding the player in question, will he have an opportunity to put up serviceable numbers consistently for at least the near future? The main thing you want to examine is minutes. Inconsistent time on the court is almost always going to lead to spotty production.
There are numerous indicators that point to solid time. Perhaps the player just fell into a solid role due to a teammate’s injury. Maybe he emerged as the leading candidate from a position battle. Or he could be a young guy or a non-playoff team who improved significantly over the the summer.
Off the top of my head, some guys who come to mind so far this season that fit the bill are Andray Blatche, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Andres Nocioni, Danilo Gallinari, Ben Wallace, Corey Brewer, Roy Hibbert and Channing Frye.
On the other hand, guys like DeJuan Blair, Ty Lawson, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams and Jason Williams should probably be left on the waiver wire. They have all had a solid line or two, but in all their cases it is unlikely to continue. For instance, promising rookies like Blair and Lawson have had some eye-popping numbers but it came in blowouts where the starters played significantly less.
Next, you need to ask what is the free agent’s prior history? There are always a few players in the league who continue to entice owners year after year because they show a glimpse of good value. For example, this season, already Larry Hughes, Erick Dampier and Travis Outlaw have probably lured a few fantasy managers to pick them up.
However, it’s probably not a good idea. Hughes has a solid history of putting up an occasionally stellar line the last few years, but he can never sustain any consistent production. Moreover, he is currently getting quite a bit of run at the expense of Nate Robinson’s short term injury. Don’t forget Larry DEFINITELY-NOT-A Legend, made 1 of 23 shots in preseason.
Erick Dampier has currently enjoyed several solid lines, but I don’t think he’s turned back the clock. His numbers have been in steady decline since the Mavericks landed him 5 years. Also, newly signed Drew Gooden has missed several games due to a pulled rib cage muscle.
Travis Outlaw has the ability to score in bunches, but Portland is so deep that even with Nicolas Batum’s shoulder injury he’ll be more off than on. Martell Webster is still the starter and most nights they’ll cancel out one another’s value with the dreaded fantasy time share.
Third, how useful will the free agent be on my team? For Rotisserie and Points leagues, this may not be that large of an issue since every player has similar value to every other manager in the league. However, if you’ve already got two solid 3 point shooting guards on your bench, does it really make sense to add a third and thereby really limiting your team’s flexibility?
On the contrary, in Head to Head leagues, managers need to also examine whether the free agent will help their strengths. Many owners don’t (and rightfully so) try to be competitive in all the categories in their league. It just doesn’t make sense to try to win them all when it substantially reduces the odds of winning the majority of categories week in and week out. Thus, when picking up a free agent, a manager should always be aware of his strengths and improve on those, rather than fruitlessly worry about their weaknesses.
Naturally, you should ignore the last two paragraphs if the free agent in question looks like they’ll post top 100 value for an extended period of time. Even though the player may not suit your team, he will surely be coveted by someone else and would make excellent trade bait.
Over the course of the season, I’m going to try to touch on a few subjects focusing on particular strategies everyone should be aware of in fantasy basketball. If any of you would like to see a particular topic discussed, feel free to email me or leave a comment at the end of the article.
As the upcoming NBA season approaches it is never too early to begin to think about which players to target to help your fantasy squad. Everyone is looking to find potential sleepers, the players that will outperform their draft position and potentially lead your team to fantasy glory. This year is no different and one player to keep a close eye on early is the New York Knick’s Danilo Gallinari.
No, this is not a Basketball Free For All original.
Gallinari came to New York via Italy as the sixth overall draft pick in the 2008 NBA Draft. He came into the league as another unknown European player with lots of potential, a word that is so often thrown around that it has become trivial. It is also a word that is strongly correlated with the dreaded b-word (bust).
After a rookie season in which he missed 54 games due to a back injury sustained in summer league play, Gallinari is now poised to start for the Knicks. After undergoing back surgery in April, Danilo is healthy and should be given plenty of minutes to prove he is worthy of a lottery pick.
Speaking recently at a Knicks charity event Gallinari touched on his health and his expectations for the coming season: “I feel good…I want to see the expectations, I want to feel the pressure, because that’s what makes you a really good player,” he said. “So I’m happy that there is pressure and people have expectations.”
Coach D’Antoni also gave Gallinari rave reviews saying he looked “good” and “He’s taken a lot of hits and fallen down and gotten back up. He’s getting in better shape as each day goes by.”
Source: The New York Times
The article also suggests that the Rooster will most likely be a starter this season. The Knicks are a team that is looking to develop its young core with well known hopes of making a big acquisition in next summer’s free agent market. However, no superstar wants to join a team that is lottery-bound, so Coach Mike D’Antoni and the Knicks have to showcase their young talent next season as a draw to Lebron James any potential free agent acquisitions.
Gallinari, along with Wilson Chandler, seems to be at the forefront of this player development movement in Madison Square Garden. As a result, he should earn somewhere around 30 minutes per game next season. Examining last season’s limited data set, his per 36 minute averages were 14.9 points on .448/.963 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 4.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers.
Not bad for a player in his rookie season, playing injured, and having to adjust to not only rookie NBA life, but life in a new country as well. With his new-found health and a tumultuous rookie season out of the way, what can we expect this year from Gallinari?
Assuming he earns at least 30 minutes a game (for reference he played 14.7 minutes per game last season), he should approach 13.5 points, 2.3 threes, 4.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.2 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. He should again provide strong free throw percentages (90%+) and should continue to hover near or improve upon his rookie field goal percentage.
The break-neck pace (the second highest in the league last season) of Coach D’Antoni’s fantasy-friendly offense should only help to reinforce stability in Gallinari’s numbers. He is also an excellent three point shooter and should contribute quite a few threes here and there. According to early mock drafts, Gallinari is going in the 13th round with an average draft position of 155.4. Yahoo! has given the Rooster an O-Rank of 166th overall.
Guys with limited upside such as: Andres Nocioni, Grant Hill and Peja Stojakovic are all going before Danilo. For the most part we have seen what those guys are capable of producing and barring some injury, trade or massive resurgence, they have nowhere near the potential (there’s that word again) that Gallinari offers.
His main competition at the small forward spot will be Wilson Chandler. As alluded to earlier, he is another young and talented player who is also said to be in the future plans for the post-2010 Knicks. Chandler and Gallinari should compete for minutes but they are both too talented to be relegated to small roles next season. Both Gallinari and Chandler should see plenty of PT with a complimentary lineup of Chris Duhon, David Lee, Jared Jeffries, Al Harrington, Nate Robinson, Larry Hughes, Darko Milicic and even possibly Eddy Curry (if only to showcase him to boost his trade value) seeing the majority of the remaining play time.
No matter how the rotation shakes out in New York, Gallinari will be featured prominently as a key piece of the Knicks’ future plans. Don’t sleep on the Rooster as he is almost assured to outperform his 13th round draft position and provide wise managers with solid fantasy dividends.
To the Charlotte Bobcats faithful (if such a group actually exists): be afraid. Be very afraid. The rumor mill has unrestricted free agent Allen Iverson re-uniting with Hall of Fame Coach Larry Brown in Charlotte to make one more run at winning an elusive championship ring. As a result of last season’s failed Detroit experiment and Iverson’s attitude throughout, he is quickly becoming the league’s number one pariah.
Former Piston Allen Iverson needs a team, and ex-Pistons coach Larry Brown needs a scorer. Just think, they could reunite.
Seven years after his famous rant in Philadelphia during a feud with Brown over missing practice, Iverson is set to become unrestricted free agent. Brown is coaching the low-scoring Bobcats, and Iverson was recently spotted in Charlotte. It’s fueled speculation Iverson, who had a difficult season in Detroit, could be paired with Brown again. Iverson’s agent, Leon Rose, said his client would be willing to play for Brown again.
“I love Allen,” Brown said.
Source: The Detroit News
If last season proved anything about AI, its that he can completely destroy team chemistry and alter the fate of franchises. Simply compare last season’s Detroit Pistons against the Denver Nuggets. Granted, that comparison provides as much insight into the character of Chauncey Billups as it does Iverson so take it with a grain of salt.
But what does Iverson really have to offer the Bobcats?
He is a definite liability on defense but would be surrounded by defensive-oriented players (in typical Coach Brown fashion) that can help cover for AI. Last season, the Bobcats struggled to put points on the board, as they were 27th in offensive efficiency (compared to 7th in defensive efficiency). So on the surface Iverson seems to address Charlotte’s biggest deficiency. But is he the right type of scorer the Bobcats need?
Iverson is not the Answer for Charlotte. He is a 33 year old undersized shooting guard in a point guard’s body who has entered the post-prime stage of his career. He can no longer be “the man” on any team and yet is at the same time unwilling to accept any other role. To cap it all off, AI has always been a high volume, low efficiency scorer (career field goal percentage of .425), which is not ideal when paired with adeclining abilities.
So, is Iverson worth the gamble?
No. Even considering the fact that there will not be as much interest in Iverson this offseason, his chemistry-disrupting potential is way too high for a team with as much talent as Charlotte has. This summer’s free agent class has a few other options that make more sense for the Bobcats if they are looking for instant offense. Ben Gordon or Carlos Boozer are both guys that have proven that they can score over twenty points a game.
Hell, if the Bobcats are committed to signing an undersized, inefficient guard just sign Nate Robinson (career field goal percentage of .427) or Jamal Crawford (career field goal percentage of .404). At least they are younger and have better attitudes (they might even show up to every practice too).
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