Basketball Free For All

Plonden gets two thumbs up for being able to peer into the future.  No, not for making any solid picks, but rather realizing we could use another writer or two around here.  Haha!  Honestly, we both happened to be without solid computer access for most of the week – hey it’s the holidays, right?  For this, we apologize but we vow to get back to posting multiple articles every week.

Ok, on to the good stuff!  Hopefully, some of you were able to nab Leandro Barbosa, Yi Jianlian, Jameer Nelson or Tyrus Thomas returning from injury.  If not, keep on reading then as you probably have a need to replace some dead wood on your rosters.

Week Ten Schedules

Four Games:  CHA, CLE, IND, LAL, MIN, NYK, OKC, PHI, SAC, SAS

Three Games:  ATL, BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, MEM, MIA, MIL, NJN, NOH, ORL, PHO, POR, TOR, UTA, WAS

Two Games:  DET, LAC

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

DeJuan Blair (SF/PF/C – 11%) – Everyone’s favorite preseason rookie is finally getting minutes including a season high of 35 against the Knicks this past Sunday.  Apparently not everyone has jumped all over him yet so check your leagues now.  His per 36 numbers are fantastic – close to 60 FG%, 14.6 points, 13 rebounds, .9 steals and 1.3 blocks.

James Harden (PG/SG – 38%) – The last 6 games, James is averaging just about 28 minutes a game.  Over that time span, he’s averaging 13.2 points, 1 3ptm/steal, 3.7 boards, 2.2 assists and 1.2 TO’s.  It appears his role will be consistent going forward so expect these numbers to remain (in case you’re wondering, ziguana has him ranked 87th the last 12 days which includes the dismal 41.7 FG%).

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 29%) – Soon to be fired Vinnie Del Negro has put Kirk into the starting lineup (not that it really mattered considering he’s been over 30 minutes a game since his return from injury).  Over the last 5 games, Kirk has averaged 11 points, 1.6 3ptm, 4.6 boards and 3.8 assists.  It’ll be interesting to see what a new coach decides to do, but he’s worth owning at least in the interim as he’s admitted he’s more comfortable in a starting role.

Juwan Howard (SF/PF/C – 10%) – With Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla done for the year, Juwan has been pushed into a prominent role.  Most likely, the Blazers will pick up another big man but in the meantime give him a look for solid FG% and good rebounding.  Since becoming a starter, he’s put up 8.7 points, 10 boards on 54 FG%.

Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 22%) – Him again?!?  Unfortunately yes.  First, he’s looking at a four game week so regardless of the subpar play, he should be able to put up useful numbers over the course of the week.  Second, both Mike Dunleavy (sufferring from lack of strength in his legs) and Dahntay Jones (return to mediocrity?)  have been awful.  Look for him to continue to get solid minutes contributing 3’s/steals/blocks with decent boards at his position.  Naturally, be aware he’ll most likely hurt your team’s %’s.

CUT LIST

Tyson Chandler (C – 44%) – If Tyson hadn’t given you a reason to kick him to the WW with his substandard play thusfar this season, his latest stress reaction in his foot probably should.  Considering he struggled with foot problems the past season and he still hasn’t felt 100% after offseason surgery, there is a good chance it’ll linger well into the rest of this season.

Tracy McGrady (SG/SF – 62%) – It should be obvious the Rockets and Tmac are and will not be on the same page for the rest of the season.  The Rockets decided to sit him down for a few games so he left the team to spend time with his family (uh, ok).  Prior to this, he wasn’t seeing even 8 minutes a game.  Time for everyone the end their love affair with him as it’s completely up in the air when his situation will improve whether through a trade or a Rocket’s injury.

WATCH LIST

Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 30%) – Ryan gets the “watch list” treatment because it’s unsure how significant his production will be going forward.  Prior to his really solid stretch just prior to his injury, he was largely an inconsistent mess.  Considering the Wolves won 3 of the 6 games he missed (and Damien Wilkins hasn’t been all that bad), I can’t see Rambis thrusting him into any prominent role.

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 10%) – I know Plonden told you to cut him a week ago, but you’ve at least got to put him back on your radar.  The Pacer’s could very well be considered the worst team in the league at the moment as they’ve lost 6 in a row including two embarrassing losses in their last 2 games.  Consequently, I could see the Pacers start off loading some of their higher salary players, but none more so than Troy Murphy.  No Troy means excellent minutes and production from Tyler (if you can stomach the FG%) – 36 minute per – 17.5 points, 9.6 boards, 1.2 steals with only 1.6 TO’s.

Serge Ibaka (C – 3%) – Allowing a pass in the Thunder’s last game, Serge has been playing admirably well.  In a four game stretch, he’s seen a little over 24 minutes a game and averaged 10.5 points, 8.5 boards, 1.2 blks on 62 FG%.  I expect his role to remain pretty solid as both Nenad Krstic and Nick Collison lack a lot of ability necessary many a night against NBA competition.

C.J. Miles (SG/SF – 4%) – Yeah I know he’s been horrid his last 2 games (2 for 15 FG’s), but don’t give up hope yet.  The Jazz need his production as Wesley Matthews will be more inconsistent going forward while Kyle Korver is still having knee problems.  I expect Miles to be a good source of points, 3’s and steals this week as the Jazz face the Wolves, Thunder and Nuggets.

Earl Watson (PG – 6%) – Another complete failure the last 2 games, Earl should be given a chance for at least this upcoming week (as I mentioned the Pacers are looking at a 4 game week).  Considering TJ Ford has all but been written off by Jim O’Brien, Mr. Watson has a good chance to rebound as the coach relies on a veteran leader to help the Pacers turn about their recent woeful play.  Expect solid 3’s, assists and steals out of him against the Bulls, Grizzlies, Wolves and Knicks.

STAY THE COURSE

Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 50%) – Hitting only 4 out of his past 24 field goals, will make you want to drop Ersan faster than a hot potato, but I ask you to reconsider the notion for 3 reasons.  One, his opportunity won’t be taken away as  the Bucks aren’t going anywhere fast so they’ll stick with their youth.  Two, he’s got Hakim Warrick behind him.  Three, team leaders Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut are as brittle as they come.

Marreesse Speights (PF/C – 34%) – After a 28/9 performance against the Clippers, Marreesse appears to have gone on hiatus (4.5 points, 4 boards the last 2 games).  This might be a nice opportunity for you to jump on him as some owner has lost the faith but you shouldn’t.  Besides his fantastic ability, he is too good of a fit under Eddie Jordan so expect a return to strong numbers in the near future.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Nazr Mohammed (C – 4%) – If Nazr is available, nab him in deep leagues.  While Tyson Chandler is slated to only miss a week, I expect his foot to hold him back much longer.  In the meantime, expect similar production to his last 2 game averages of 14 points, 8.5 boards, 1 steal/board with excellent FG% and TO numbers.

Jeff Pendergraph (SF/PF – 0%) – Until the Blazer’s are able to bring in another big man, Jeff will be relied on to assist Juwan Howard down the low.  Scary, I know but he’s worth a look for some extra points, rebounds and defensive numbers all done in an efficient manner (based on summer league production).

MYSTERY MAN

Delonte West (PG/SG – 20%) – In keeping with last week’s new category, is there anyone more worthy of a mention?  To start the year, it wasn’t even certain when, if at all, he’d be back on the court.  Now that he is racking up more 20+ minute games than DNP’s, the question is will he achieve any consistency to be worth owning in the average fantasy league – especially in the 3 point category (1 made 3 the entire month!!!)?  I say yes.  As he and his teammates continue to acclimate to one another, his role will likely increase.  After all, the Cav’s have won 9 of their last 10 and it can be argued he was their second most valuable player last season.  In addition, it’s no surprise confidence is the last thing he needs to achieve (the motorcycle stunt and his wrist injury).  However, it’s getting there as both the coach and teammates are noticing.

Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

Well we’re more than a quarter through the season so it’s probably going to get more difficult finding significantly helpful players if you participate in active leagues.  Instead, now is the time to keep a close eye on injuries.  When a player goes down or is just hobbling, it usually means something positive for at least one of his teammates.  Another item to keep in mind is that December 15th is the first day players signed this past off season can be dealt.  Between now and the trade deadline (February 18th), expect teams to maneuver to either put themselves in better position for the playoffs or wave the white flag and start thinking about next year.

Week Eight Schedules

Four Games: CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, NOH, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, TOR, WAS, UTA

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, GSW, MIA, MIL, PHX, SAS

Two Games: NONE

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Erick Dampier (C – 34%) – If your team needs help with rebounds or blocks, Dampier is your man.  Despite the glitch with his arm over a few weeks ago, he’s played extremely well when he’s gotten the minutes, as evidenced by the 35 rebounds the last two games.  Without a doubt, he appears to be a contract year player so take advantage of him the rest of this season.  Just keep in mind there will be matchups that limit him in certain games like against the Suns, Warriors or Knicks.

Jarrett Jack (PG/SG – 27%) – If your team is in need of guard help, you should pounce on Jack  immediately.  There is a good chance Jose Calderon might be missing a ton of time in the coming future as his hip is giving him problems.  If he does miss significant time, the Jack-of-all-trades will be a wonderful source of points, assists, 3’s and FT% – everything you want out of a starting PG.

Joel Przybilla (C – 36%) – It’s rare to have possibly two excellent center prospects sitting on the waiver wire, but that’s what you may have this week.  With just a 36% ownership, it’s obvious a number of fantasy managers haven’t jumped all over the Vanilla Gorilla upon hearing about Greg Oden going down for the rest of the year.  When Oden has missed time in the past, Joel has stepped up and contributed excellent boards and solid blocks.  Portland will lean on him heavily the rest of the year; consequently, so should you.

Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 23%) – So far this season, Brandon has done everything in his power to try to force himself off of most rosters.  However, he continues to be a tough habit to kick.  Why?  Opportunity.  Danny Granger is in the midst of missing anywhere from 4 to 6 weeks at the least.  Meanwhile, Mike Dunleavy is going to continue to slowly be worked back into starter-like usage.  Lastly, Dahntay Jones doesn’t possess a strong perimeter game, but more importantly, took a hard fall in last night’s game hurting his shoulder.  Although he says he’s fine, he could be slowed down enough this week whereby Rush emerges as a fantastic contributor during the upcoming 4 game week.

CJ Watson (PG/SG – 15%) – I’m confused by the low ownership of Mr. Watson.  I guess we need to call into Sherlock Holmes to solve this mystery, even though it doesn’t appear too mystifying.  Since getting over the swine flu, CJ Watson has played fantastic ball.  In the last 8 games, ziguana.com has him ranked as the 33rd best player as he’s put up solid numbers in all 9 standard categories.  With the minutes he’s been getting, it’s obvious Nellie and crew have an affinity for him so go ride this guy while he’s hot!

CUT LIST

Will Bynum (PG/SG – 31%) – The last few games, “Will the Thrill” has been sidelined with a bum ankle.  More troubling, with the Pistons on the verge of getting Richard Hamilton and Ben Gordon back and Rodney Stuckey finally hitting shots, Bynum’s minutes appear headed back to the low 20 range.  If you do the math, his nice run appears to be over.  Just keep him in mind the next time you hear about any injury/trade rumors regarding the Piston’s back court.

Nate Robinson (PG/SG – 36%) – If the 5 straight DNP’s haven’t helping you decide, let me tell you it’s time to move on.  The final straw appeared to be fraternizing with Dwight Howard prior to the start of a game against the Magic.  D’Antoni has recently stated he doesn’t plan on changing things either.  Why should he?  The Knicks are currently on their best winning streak since D’Antoni’s arrival in the Big Apple.  I don’t have to remind anyone that Nate should be picked up at the first signs of court time considering his fantasy explosiveness.

Al Thornton (SF/PF – 58%) – This drop is more in line with the thinking that owners should be preparing to cut ties with Al in the coming weeks.  Although Blake Griffin’s return has recently been delayed, Coach Dunleavy has expressed he might be the teams new starting forward.  If Camby doesn’t get traded, that should spell the end for Thornton’s significance in standard leagues.

WATCH LIST

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 5%) – It’s a shame the Israeli sensation can’t get off the watch list, but the depth of the Sacramento Kings is to blame.  Regardless, he should continue to be an asset for points, 3’s, FG% and rebounds.  Lately his defensive numbers have vanished, but I expect him to start contributing in these areas again considering his length and style of play.  The big question mark is the inevitable return of Kevin Martin, but worry about that when the time comes.

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 9%) – “Pyscho T”  appears to have carved a consistent role off the Pacers bench.  The last 3 games, he’s averaged over 17 points, 7 boards and 1.6 steals.  Think DeJuan Blair here because low minutes (low 20s) won’t kill his value.  This guy gets it done and he could help you if you’re pressed for forward production.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (SF/PF – 4%) – Usually when you’re one of the coaches favorites and get over 30 minutes a game, you’re worth owning in standard leagues.  However, this Prince isn’t the case.  He is the Bucks no glory guy where he’ll play tough defense and bring fantastic intensity – too bad that rarely translates well for fantasy purposes.  However, despite this, he’s bound to fall into some numbers.  Deep leaguers should definitely considering owning him, but standard leagues should probably just pay attention to whether he can get into any kind of groove regarding any type of production in coming games.

Luke Ridnour (PG – 39%) – There is no other explanation other than Luke has found the force.  Through more than the quarter of this season, he just can’t miss as evidenced by the 51.8 FG%.  His previous season high?  43.3%.  The reason he’s on the watch list though is playing time.  As the Bucks have gotten healthier, his minutes have dropped measurably (under 18 the last 4 games).  Most players can’t do a whole lot with limited time so expect Luke to follow suit shortly.

Martell Webster (SG/SF – 10%) – I’m kind of getting tired about writing about this guy, but due to the rash of Portland injuries, he’s borderline worth owning in standard leagues.  He’s semi-capable of doing a lot of things:  scoring, 3’s, rebounds and defensive stats, but, for whatever reason, he can’t do any of them consistently.  Perhaps someone/something will get through to him where that’ll change, however, don’t hold your breath as I expect his maddening play to continue.

STAY THE COURSE

Mario Chalmers (PG – 65%) – Admittedly Mario hasn’t found his groove for much of the entire first quarter of the season, but don’t give up hope.  I expect Coach Spo’ to attempt to get him going as the season progresses plus Rio will probably stop getting into so much foul trouble early on in games.  His outside jumper is much more efficient this season and with no real challengers to his skill set, Chalmers will continue to be given significant time.

Boris Diaw (SF/PF – 77%) – The arrival of Stephen Jackson has perhaps put Diaw into a noticeable funk, as evidenced by a drop in his numbers across the board.  It’s not too surprising that his usage would suffer, but don’t make too much out of this in such a small sample size.  First and foremost, realize that he’s currently in the midst of a significant slump as his shot hasn’t been falling.  Considering the Bobcats have no other decent options at PF his minutes will continue to be strong so just ride this out.

COMING BACK FROM INJURY

Plonden’s mentions of Yi Jianlian (PF – 1%) and Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 40%) still apply.  Also, now is the time to probably grab Jameer Nelson (PG – 66%) if he happens to be available.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jose Juan Barea (PG – 5%) – Recently, Mr. Barea has supplanted Rodrigue Beaubois in the Maverick’s starting lineup.  Prior to that, he had a 3 game stretch of non-existent play so it’s conceivable another owner let him go.  Considering Howard’s still coming back from injury and the Coach’s penchant for Jose, he could be useful in the short term for some points, 3’s, assists and steals.

Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 4%) – Really wanted to put “Buckets” on the watch list, but considering that many deep leaguers probably have recently let him go, I wanted him in this section of the article.  Thornton has a 4 game week coming up and his shot has recently returned.  I expect at least solid points and 3’s out of him, but look for more.  Chris Paul has been enamoured with this kid since he was drafted and is recently trying to get him to do more – rebound, drive to the basket, etc.  Hopefully this translates into better boards, steals and a more meaningful FT% in the near future.

Damien Wilkins (SG/SF – 1%) – If Ryan Gomes‘ ankle/knee injury last night forces him to miss any time, Damien looks to be the beneficiary.  He’ll give a little bit of everything, but most likely it’ll be short lived as Gomes’ injury didn’t appear to be serious.

Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 1%) – Almost forgot to add this guy – thanks for the reminder Andrew!  Recently, Wright has gotten solid run for a few reasons.  One, Quentin Richardson continues to miss time due to injury.  Two, Wright seems to have improved his play including an improved jumper and better decision making.  He may be indeed be worth a speculative add if you have the roster space.

Each year, there is always a group of players that start off hotter than the devil’s underwear.  Amongst them, there are several guys that really do come out of nowhere.  If you’re lucky, you’ve got at least one of them on your roster.  Or, perhaps, you’re being offered one of them by an owner looking to sell high.  Either way, now is a good time to contemplate what you can expect from them in the future. Playing your cards right can go a long way in determining the rest of your season so we’ll hopefully help breakdown 5 of the largest surprises this early NBA season.

* The following rankings are based on Ziguana 9-cat rankings.

1.  Larry Hughes – currently 12th

Who hasn’t owned “Smooth” (yeah that’s his nickname) at one time or another?  In his best year (2004-05), he averaged 22 points (on 43 FG% and 77 FT%), 1 3ptm, 6.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 2.9 steals.  Very nice!  Too bad that season has turned out to be an aberration as he’s failed to come close to duplicating those numbers again.  No matter though as Larry is once again tempting fantasy owners with a line thus far of 14 points (on 50 FG% and 70 FT%), 1.3 3ptm, 4.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.2 steals.  The million dollar question is, can he keep it up?

One thing in Hughes favor though is the pocketbook argument.  It has been published by authors like Kevin Stiroh that NBA players performance do spike in contract years.  Well, at age 31, Larry is playing for the future so he might be putting up a one last hoorah.

However, I’m definitely on the other side of the fence as he’s got several factors working against him.  First, he is a career 41% FG shooter who is known for being as streaky as a Leonid Meteor Shower.  He’ll string along a few nice games, then promptly kick your team’s efficiency in the groin.  Second, his penchant for injury isn’t a secret to anyone – from ankles to shoulders to wrists.  Third, he is playing for the hapless Knicks.  D’Antoni will probably continue to experiment with lineups as to maximize wins and playing time for the youngsters.

Conclusion:  he’s a perfect sell high candidate so don’t wait too long to attempt to move him before he reverts back to ‘expected form.’

2.  Marc Gasol – currently 13th

I’d be willing to wager that “La Tanqueta” was the last picked starting Memphis Grizzly in every fantasy league this year.  Whoops!  He’s made a fool of all of us by putting up averages of 15.2 points (on 61.1 FG% and 74.7 FT%), 11.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.7 blocks.  He’s easily been the better Gasol in the family in the earlygoings, but the important question is will it continue?

From my perspective, I don’t see any reason why he won’t.  First, have you seen him lately?  He lost half a Spaniard – well, not really, but 30 pounds is nothing to scoff at!  It is apparent he is moving MUCH better on the court and that added quickness is translating to a solid increase in most statistical categories.  Second, playing alongside potent names like OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph has taken all the focus away from him; consequently, he’s been free to roam in the paint and clean up on the glass.

Conclusion:  Marc Gasol owner’s should hang onto him unless they receive a very good offer.

3.  Brandon Jennings – currently 21st

“Young money” has started off the season with a bang and simultaneously has many Knick fans headed for the Brooklyn Bridge.  This spectacular lefty has posted averages of 25.3 points (on 47.9 FG% and 77.2 FT%), 2.6 3ptm, 4.4 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 1.0 steals.  His unexpected goodness has made the Milwaukee region relevant again as fans all over the country are tuning in to see what he’ll do next.  Unless you were on an expedition to the South Pole, I’m sure you heard about his recent 55 point performance.  So amongst all the hoopla, should there be any cause for concern?

Simply put, yes, as his feet have to touch the ground at some point.  Coming into the season, he gave every indication his shot was going to work:  43 games in Euope last year – approximately 38 FG%/22 3PT%,  NBA summer league – 37.9 FG%/42.9 3PT% and in the NBA preseason – 33 FG%/25 3pt%.  Currently, he’s at 47.9 FG%/49.1 3PT% with an eFG% on jumpshots of 55.9%.  I’m sorry, but that’s an unsustainable level.  Steve Nash’s eFG% is currently at 55.2% and last year it was 54.7%.  I refuse to believe he’s anywhere as adept as the 2 time NBA MVP.

Conclusion:  Sell high (in non-keeper leagues).  Although I expect him to still put up solid lines, they won’t be at current levels.  He will cool off and hit quite a few slumps as the law of averages tend to be cruel.  In addition, opposing teams now know who he is so they’ll key on him defensively.

4.  Channing Frye – currently 22nd

Channing should be nicknamed “rollercoaster” – from promising rookie to bench fodder to a fantasy owner’s dream.  This Phoenix Suns starting center is averaging 12.9 points (on 44.4 FG% and 79 FT%), 2.7 3ptm, 5.7 rebounds and close to 1 block/steal per game.  Simply marvelous when you consider he probably wasn’t even drafted in your league, but is he someone you keep for the long haul?

Yes.  While Channing does possess solid NBA talent, it’s the fact that he’ll continue to see big minutes in the Valley of the Suns.  The Frye guy was born to play center when Steve Nash is at the helm as he’s very proficient at shooting the perimeter shot and quicker than 90% of the opposition.  He’ll never wow you with the rebounds nor blocked shots, but if your team is small ball orientated he’ll fit like a glove.

Conclusion:  Jumpshooters are streaky so sell while the going is good; otherwise, hang onto him for what looks like will be a rewarding ride.

5.  Dahntay Jones -  currently 95th

Who says the NBA isn’t one big family?  Dahntay, a cousin of Al Harrington, is enjoying his finest NBA season to date.  He is currently averaging 17.6 points (on 48.2 FG% and 78.1 FT%), 4.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.3 blocks.  Thought he was only a defensive stopper?  Welcome to the club.  However, if one looked closely enough, you’d have discovered he does know how to put the ball in the hoop.  In 10 games in the NBDL 2 years ago, Dahntay averaged 24.4 points with close to 1 steal/block per game and his senior year at Duke 17.7 points.  So can he keep it going?

This prediction isn’t as clear cut as the others as he’s got what seems to be a similar number of pro’s and con’s.  Regarding the pro’s, he plays for the 2nd best team in terms of pace.  Both Larry Bird and Coach O’brien are high on this kid as he’s got a bulldog defensive mentality.  Lastly, he has demonstrated he possesses an aggressive yet pretty efficient offensive approach (6.6 FTA a game).

As far as the con’s, it would seem he’s been playing on borrowed time.  Both Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy have missed most of the games played this season.  Once they’re both back and healthy, it would dictate a few players will get squeezed for minutes in a fair amount of games.

Conclusion:  Sell high if you can, but don’t despair.  The likelihood that Brandon Rush takes his game to another level and Dunleavy/Murphy (and even Danny Granger) remain healthy here on out seem very remote.  There may be a few periods where his production wanes, but don’t fear, he’ll get back on the court one way or another.

The biggest storyline fantasy circles during week four had to be the return of Elton Brand. Over the first ten games of the season, Brand’s owners have practically had to be on suicide watch. Over the past week, however, Brand has been the second best player in fantasy basketball, period (averaged 19.3 points on .523/.867 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 10.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.7 steals, 3.7 blocks and 2.0 turnovers over the past three games). That is a vintage EB line right there.

Another couple of big names made their season debuts this past week as Antawn Jamison and Pau Gasol both made big splashes in their season debuts. Jamison immediately showed everyone why he is one of the most under-appreciated players in fantasy basketball, averaging 22.7 points on .490/.591 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers in three games this season. Gasol also reminded owners why they spent such a high draft pick on him, posting 24 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.o turnovers in his season debut. Welcome back, fellas.

Other owners were not so lucky last week, with Mike Miller, Andrew Bogut, Jameer Nelson, Erick Dampier and Raja Bell all going down with varying injuries and ailments. For more early season excitement, we also had the first in-season trade of the 2009-10 season sending Stephen Jackson and Acie Law to the Bobcats sending Raja Bell and Valdimir Radmanovic to the Warriors. With week four almost in the books, it is time to look ahead and strategize for week five.

Week Five Schedules
Four Games: DAL, DEN, LAC, MEM, MIL, MIN, NJN, NYK, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, SAN, TOR

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAL, MIA, OKC, PHX, UTA, WAS

Two Games: CHI, NOH

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Dahntay Jones (SG/SF – 40%) This season can definitely be labeled a breakout season for Dahntay in Indy, as he is posting career-highs in virtually every single statistical category after signing with the Pacers. For Jones, ride him while he is hot as he should only face increased competition for minutes as the Pacers return to full strength (most notably Mike Dunleavy). Surprisingly, Jones has been effective on both offense and defense (2.0 steals and 1.7 blocks and 19.7 points on .525 percent shooting over the past three).

Drew Gooden (PF/C – 26%) With Dampier out indefinitely with a mystery illness, Gooden has responded in a beastly manner. Over the past week, Gooden has posted averages of 14.8 points on .500/.818 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.0 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.3 blocks and 1. turnovers. Those are very nice numbers for a center three pulled off the waiver wire. Gooden deserves a universal add for his recent strong production.

Jared Dudley (SF/PF – 19%) Dudley is a player that most casual NBA fans are probably not familiar with but would be if he played for a prime-time team like the Lakers. His a role player that stays on the court through pure hustle and effort in the 2008-09 Trevor Ariza mold. Despite the low ownership numbers, Dudley has been climbing up the fantasy rankings (93rd overall in per game value according to Ziguana) with his potent combination of threes and steals with low turnovers.

Steve Blake (PG – 16%) It appears Blake has won Portland’s point guard battle (fow now) making him rosterable if you need assists, threes and free throw percentage. Over the past week, Blake has put up top-1oo value and played 35 minutes per game with free agent addition Andre Miller outside of the top 200 and averaging 25 minutes per game. I’m not cutting Miller in standard leagues yet, but am getting pretty damn close. The only question left is why Portland paid Miller over $20 million over three years to run their second unit? For a team that has seemingly made all the right moves lately, it just seems like they made the move for the sake of making a move and not because it was the best fit for their team.

Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 15%) In his second stint in the NBA, Ilyasova is starting to prove that he belongs in the League and that he deserves universal ownership. Over the past week, Ersan has put up top fifty value averaging 14.8 points on .488/.727 percent shooting, 2.3 threes, 9.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers in four games. This combination of threes and boards from a forward is a very nice addition without having to sacrifice too much in either of the percentages. His strong play has most likely solidified his spot in the Bucks’ starting lineup (started the past three games).

CUT LIST

Jonny Flynn (PG/SG – 78%) With rookies learning the game at the highest level, efficiency and minutes are usually the main impediments to fantasy value. In Flynn’s case, he has gotten decent minutes (28.4 per game in 13 games this season) but has had serious problems with the efficiency. For reference, Flynn has shot .442 percent from the field (.250 percent from three point land) while also averaging more turnovers than assists (3.5 to 3.2 per game). Add in the fact that Ramon Sessions is a more experienced player and actually has some pretty serious game and Flynn is looking more like a long-term project and less like an immediate impact player. Cut bait.

Andray Blatche (PF/C – 48%) Bulletproof had one hell of a run to start this season. With Jamison out with a preseason shoulder injury, Andray stepped it up in a big way posting top-100 value for the first few weeks. Since Antawn’s return to the Wizards’ starting lineup, Blatche’s minutes have dropped considerably (17, 15, 25 minutes in his past three games) and his status has been demoted from universal ownership to waiver wire wonder. Thank him for his service and be ready to pick him up again in the event of another injury to a Wizards forward.

STAY THE COURSE

John Salmons (SG/SF – 87%) John Salmons giveth and he taketh away. This week, Salmons gave two strong performances back-to-back and then followed them up with a stinker. In fact, last week saw the only two game streak in which Salmons shot .500 percent or greater from the field. However, his .182 percent shooting night on Saturday abruptly brought an end to Salmons owners’ happiness. As with before, the counting stats are there but his shooting efficiency has been terrible (.345 this season versus .444 career). Don’t trade Salmons for an inferior player.

Stephen Curry (PG/SG – 66%) Since S-Jax was unceremoniously sent packing last week, Curry has posted some of the best numbers of his career. Over the past week, Curry has averaged 13.0 points on .448/.800 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 3.3 turnovers. The turnovers are a definite concern but as long as he is providing decent counting stats on good percentages it is palatable.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jason Williams (PG – 17%) Another season and another injury for Jameer Nelson. This one (meniscus) promises to keep Nelson on the bench for at least a month. This means second-string point man White Chocolate is now the starting point guard in Orlando and deserves consideration in deep leagues. If the Magic do not end up trading for another PG or signing a free agent floor general, Williams could eventually play his way into wider ownership. Sunday’s 16 point, 5 rebound, 3 assist performance is a step in that direction.

Terrence Williams (SG/SF/PF – 18%) Williams has had a roller-coaster ride of a rookie season so far with his team win-less through thirteen games. Terrence has shown why he was drafted eleventh overall in the 2009 NBA Draft. Williams’ last couple of games have been promising and he could be positively affected by the return of Devin Harris. Williams is worth picking up at this point in deep leagues to see if he can continue and build upon his recent strong play.

Darren Collison (PG/SG – 13%) / Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 3%) These two Hornets guards have both been on our watch list before and most certainly would have been upgraded to the Add List if it wasn’t for the Hornets’ week upcoming schedule. With Chris Paul down for at least a few more weeks, both of these players can provide interim help in the short-term in different categories. If you are looking for assists, points, threes and free throw percentage give Collison a look. If you are looking for threes, points and field goal percentage with low turnovers give the other Thornton an add.

WATCH LIST

James Harden (PG/SG – 33%) With two strong games back-to-back, Harden is one player that may have turned the corner. Sunday’s contest against the Lakers will be a good heat check for Harden. If the rookie posts another strong line in under 30 minutes, he deserves roster consideration. In the past two games, Harden averaged 24.5 points on .600/.900 percent shooting, 5.0 threes per game, 3.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.5 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. Obviously he is going to cool off a bit, but if he can put up numbers anywhere close to this consistently he’d be worthy of a roster spot in all formats.

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 3%) Another rookie coming off of a strong performance against the over-acheiving Rockets is Sacramento Kings forward Omri Casspi. Casspi set a career-high in scoring going for 17 points on .400/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 8 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 1 turnover. Casspi also posted a career-high in minutes, which is a trend to keep an eye on. If the minutes come consistently for Casspi, he should have no problem putting up fantasy-relevant numbers. For now just monitor the situation and be prepared to act if his minutes continue to trend upward.

If you feel your team is deficient in scoring and/or threes towards the end of a draft, I’d suggest you load up on some A-Mo.  No, not the stuff for the shotgun you’ve got stashed in the closet (or guitar case), but rather Anthony Morrow.  He’s the new rising gunslinger in the NBA who plays for the always entertaining Golden State Warriors.

This unheralded sharpshooter really came out of nowhere.  He played four years at Georgia Tech and while he led the team in scoring two of those years, he didn’t make much of an impact on the college scene.  Consequently, he wasn’t even picked in the 2008 NBA Draft.

He started to make a name for himself by participating in three summer leagues that included an MVP of the 2008 Rocky Mountain Revue.  In four games, he put up 21 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 2.75 3PTM while shooting just a hair under 50%.  That performance propelled him in landing a contract with the Golden State Warriors.

At the start of last year’s regular season, most fans still had no idea who Anthony Morrow was.  Well, all that changed on November 15th when Coach Don Nelson surprised A-Mo by giving him his first NBA start.  However, Nellie got the bigger surprise.  Against the Clippers, Mr. Undrafted put up 37 points, 11 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 TOs and 4 3PTM making an absurd 15 of 20 FG’s and 3 of 3 FT’s.  Morrow’s reaction?

“It was a fun game, man,” said a humble Morrow, who added 11 rebounds in his 42 minutes on the court. “I just wake up every day like, ‘I’m in the NBA.’ I thank God for it.

Source:  San Francisco Chronicle

Humble?  Talk about unpresumptuous!  Anthony just had the game of his life and he’s this modest?  It’s just simply amazing when you consider he just set a record for the most points by an undrafted rookie during the common draft era.  Moreover, Anthony didn’t stop there.  In spotty minutes (a Nellie staple), he went on to lead all NBA players in 3 point shooting percentage by putting up an impressive clip of 46.7%.

Still need some more convincing?  Ok, let’s give a mention of his performance in the 2009 Summer League.  While Anthony Randolph was drawing plenty of ooh’s and aah’s, A-Mo saved the best for last.  In Golden States’ last game, A-Mo went for 47 points including 7 of 9 3PTM – that’s the highest point total ever in the league’s six year history!

So far in six games of the preseason, Anthony has put up an impressive statline.  According to Dougstats.com, he is averaging 19.7 points, 3.2 3’s, 3.3 rebs, 1.3 steals and .8 TO’s in only 29.7 minutes!  He’s shooting an eye popping 55% from the field to go along with 95% from the foul line.  For those interested in 3 point percentages, how does 51% grab you?

Alright, now that I’ve got you salivating like a hungry dog, let’s talk about what you can expect out of A-Mo this season.  Last year, finding time on the court was a difficult proposition considering the Warriors had an overabundance of wingmen.

Well, this year, things got a little easier.  First, Jamal Crawford and Marco Belinelli are with other teams.  Second, Morrow gives the Warriors a true catch and shoot SG.  A Stephen Curry/Monta Ellis combo is vastly undersized plus Stephen probably isn’t ready to produce effectively enough as a starter.  Kelenna Azubuike will steal some time of the time at SG but will also have to play some SF and PF.

Third, and most importantly, Stephen Jackson has rocked the boat.  Although, there is news he has decided to amicably go along with the program, I’m not buying it.  Jackson made it pointedly obvious several times that he didn’t feel welcome in GSW.   Al Gore famously once said, “A zebra does not change it’s spots”.   Haha, nice try but we get the idea.

In my opinion, Golden State received terrible offers over the last few weeks so the only hope is to raise his value.  Both parties are going to put up a front that they’ve moved on and will try to prove that on the court.  Once they are able to show Jackson can still be an effective asset, they have a much better chance on moving him.  When that happens, A-Mo will be locked and loaded.

I know some of you have been burned by a player under Nellie a time or two.  However, this time, I think the outcome will be much more positive.  First, when Nellie gloated about players in the preseason like Belinelli or Mike Dunleavy in the past, they failed to live up to the hype on the court.  A-Mo has been on fire.  Second, Nellie also likes to make his point obtrusively obvious with players that don’t go along with his program (see Al Harrington or Jamal Crawford).  From all reports, Anthony Morrow is an extremely hard worker who has no discipline problems.

Just recently, Nellie has changed his stance regarding A-Mo.  At the start of preseason, Nellie was talking about keeping the SG spot fluid.  However, in recent days, he has changed his opinion about leaning towards including Morrow in the starting 5.  While Nellie is more than likely going to change his mind another half a dozen times, it is painfully obvious Anthony Morrow can play.

Even with limited minutes, it is obvious he will put up numbers that make him worth owning in standard leagues.  Last year, he had a 9 category ranking on Basketball Monster of 145 and on Ziguana of 156.  Factor in a few more minutes and standard improvement by a young player, that value is most certainly going to be higher.  However, don’t be upset if that value is exponentially higher when Nellie decides to really commit to Morrow.

In competitive fantasy leagues, it’s never too early to start to identify potential sleepers for next season. Even though almost anything can change over the next few months, some players are already emerging as potential studs or breakout candidates for 2009-10.

The recipe for a potential sleeper is never the same. Sometimes it is true progression as a player, other times a trade or injury opens up minutes for a player. It can even be a truly unexplainable phenomenon. Whatever the reason, breakout players are essential to securing the ever-elusive hardware when playing against other knowledgeable managers.

Let’s break the potential sleepers into three groups: the guards, the forwards and the centers.

First, let’s look at the guards.

Tyreke Evans – Drafted fourth overall by the Suckramento Sacramento Kings this year, Evans is going to have ample opportunity to carve out a large chunk of playing time. In full rebuild mode after a pathetic 17-65 2008-09 season (.207 winning percentage), the Kings (similar to the Oklahoma City Thunder) have committed to developing their young core.

Since being drafted, the word out of Sacramento is that the Kings plan on playing Evans at the point guard position next to the high scoring guard Kevin Martin. As a rookie, Evans should probably be given eligibility at both guard spots. He has the potential to be an inefficient scorer right out of the gates, but will most likely improve over the course of the season. There are valid concerns about his assist to turnover ratio, especially if he is indeed the Kings starting point guard.

In dyanasty formats or keeper leagues with high numbers of keepers, Evans is definitely one of the players from the 2009 draft to keep an eye on.

Johnny Flynn – In a move that was widely criticized at the time, the Minnesota Timberwolves drafted both the Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio and Syracuse standout Johnny Flynn with back-to-back picks. Now with Rubio most likely staying overseas and Sebastian Telfair a Clipper, Flynn now has the keys to the low-octane Minnesota offense (24th in offensive efficiency last season).

So what is so special about Johnny Flynn?

At six feet tall (in shoes) and 190 pounds, he is an undersized point guard in the NBA. However, unlike Tyreke Evans, who was selected two spots ahead of him in the 2009 draft, Flynn is a true point guard and a natural leader. And leadership is something the T-Wolves could definitely use next season. Flynn is also a winner and exhibits all the intangibles that will keep him on the floor.

Similar to Evans in Sacramento, Flynn will get big minutes manning the point in Minnesota. However, he will probably struggle to score from distance at first and will likely have a relatively low field goal percentage. Again, like Evans, Flynn will be very valuable in dynasty and keeper formats.

Mike Conley – Entering his third season in the NBA, there are a variety of factors that could lead a reasonable manager to believe that Conley is primed for a very productive 2009-10 season. First, Conley has a coach and front office that has illustrated it’s commitment to Conley by trading away his primary competition for minutes at the point (Kyle Lowry). Second, Memphis is committed to developing it’s young and talented core of players that has been racked up over the course of successive lottery-worthy campaigns.

And finally, Conley is a talented dude that is right at the age when many players make productive strides in both fantasy and real life. Looking at his post-All-Star Game splits from last season, it is easy to see why some savvy managers are excited about his prospects for next season. In the thirty games he appeared in after the All-Star Gane, Conley averaged 14.5 points on 46.4/84.0 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 2.2 turnovers. Also, his 2.6 AST/TO ratio is solid as well.

If you assume some modest improvements based upon his post-All-Star Game splits, Conley is slated to make the jump to a very solid second point guard. His should be good for six or seven assists per game and nearly two threes and two steals per game. That is a very nice statistical combination for almost any fantasy format. Just hope that the Grizzlies don’t sign Allen Iverson. Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Eric Gordon – You may find it hard to believe that not every recent move the Clippers have made recently has been bad. For proof, just look at the Clips’ selection of Indiana guard Eric Gordon, who has drafted seventh overall in last season’s draft. By almost any measure, Gordon had an impressive rookie season. However, the way he handled himself and responded to all the adversity and drama in Clipper Nation truly showed what kind of potential this kid has.

In a season that saw an immense number of injuries to the Clippers roster, Gordon responded by putting his head down and doing work. Gordon played in 78 games and averaged nearly 35 minutes per night at the two. As a rook, he averaged 16.8 points on 45.6/85.4 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. According to Basketball Monster’s Player Rankings, Gordon was 72nd in per game rankings and 58th in cumulative value in nine category leagues last season.

If you picked up Gordon off the waiver wire last season, your team probably got a big time boost and you might have even won a medal for snagging him. If Gordon does not progress at all next season, he will definitely be worth a roster spot in virtually all formats. However, assuming efficiency and overall production gains, he should be due a rise in fantasy value next season and in the future.

Russell Westbrook – The Oklahoma City Thunder seem to be claiming the “next Trailblazers” mantle as they assemble an impressive young core of players. Their strategy is to let the players develop and mature together over a course of years. And what that means for guys like Westbrook is guaranteed minutes, which translates to fantasy gold.

When watching Westbrook play during his rookie season, it is crystal clear that Westbrook absolutely oozes potential and that his ceiling as a player (and thus as a fantasy players) is extremely high. His game breaks barriers and defies description. For a small point guard, Westbrook is an excellent rebounder, especially on the offensive end (enough so to make some compare him to Rajon Rondo).

In looking at his per-36 minute statistics from his rookie season, the potential is obvious (17.0 points on 39.9/81.5 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 5.4 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.2 blocks and 3.7 turnovers). Westbrook will develop into a triple-double threat and should easily be able to average two steals per game very soon.

When it comes to Westbrook, there are only two types of people out there. Those who believe he is an absolute stud in the making and those who have never seen the Thunder play basketball (they probably don’t even know that the Sonics are no longer in Seattle).

Lou Williams – The last of the early sleeper guards this season is perhaps the most controversial. At some point in his career, Williams will develop into a prolific scorer. However, he is currently slated to be the Philadelphia 76′ers’ starting point guard. For Williams to the play the point, he will have to go against his natural instincts, which is to put the ball through the rim.

However, he does have one thing working in his favor: new Sixers coach Eddie Jordan. Jordan, who was targeted as the Wizards’ scapegoat for last season’s pitiful start after management got Arenased, is an underrated coach who relies on spreading responsibility for creating plays to everyone on the floor. In that case (and barring further free agent acquisitions or trades), Williams looks to have a very solid outing next season.

His per-36 minute averages of 19.5 points on 39.8/79.0 percent shooting, 1.2 threes, 3.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.8 turnovers are a nice benchmark for Williams. However, the key to him sustaining solid fantasy value is going to be whether Williams can increase his scoring efficiency from the field. If he brings his field goal percentage up above his career average (41.5 percent), Williams could end up being a solid third point guard. He is especially valuable on a team that is punting field goal percentage.

With the guards down, the forwards are up next.