Basketball Free For All

The All Star break is always a good time to start reviewing and analyzing the current season, as we are starting to acquire large enough of a sample size to begin to make decent judgments. With the season over 60 percent complete, the Coach of the Year (COTY) race is starting to take shape, with two coaches in particular rising above the rest of the pack: Atlanta’s Mike Woodson and Oklahoma City’s Scott Brooks. However, this season there are a decent number of qualified coaches so we’ll break down the other hopefuls and also examine the COTY’s recent (and in some ways dubious) history to get a full picture of this season’s race.

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Unfortunately the best all-star game in sports is suffering from a growing case of stupidity.  This year, Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson are still on pace to start at guard in the upcoming mid-season classic in Dallas.  Thankfully, the fans only get to choose just 10 players, but it’s become apparent that this might even be too much responsibility unless the selection process is changed.  If you’re an avid fan, this just has to get your blood boiling a bit.  Question is, what should be done?

We’ve all heard the argument that the All-Star game is for the fans so whomever they choose to start should be allowed.  In the past, this has always been acceptable as the results haven’t been too skewed.  However, with each passing year, it has become obvious this has become more of a popularity contest.  Last season the unthinkable almost happened.  Yi Jianlian finished 3rd among Eastern Conference forwards despite putting up 10.5 points (on 40.3 FG%), 1.0 3ptm, 6.2 rebounds and .5 steals/.6 blocks.  Say what?

Naturally there are many who think the game is just for fun so it doesn’t matter who gets in.

Don Nelson, who coached the West All-Star team in 1992, takes a different view of McGrady’s situation. The Golden State coach said the league should respect the fans’ right to vote by not questioning the final results.

“If you’re going to have fan voting, then you gotta accept that they might vote in a guy that hasn’t played,” Nelson said. “They may vote for a guy just because he has a big name. It’s just kind of the way it is, and you gotta live with it.”

Source:  OregonLive.com

I guess it boils down to how you view the All-Star game.  Historically, being selected was considered a proud achievement as players were honored for being the most developed and well-regarded in the league.  Just take a glance at the rosters of prior games.  I can’t seem to find any duds.

Being an avid supporter of tradition, I don’t see any reason why this definition of an All-Star should be changed now.  It’s NOT a My Fave Five game.  Consequently what steps can be done to prevent an embarrassment from happening?  Here is the short list I’ve come up with:

1)  Eliminate fan voting

It doesn’t appear too difficult to discount this one.  Next to All-Stars always being worthy players, it can be argued the other mainstay is fan voting.  Since 1951, fans have always been allowed to vote for players.  There is simply no way the NBA would take a step that would be akin to cutting off their own feet.  Fan involvement undoubtedly helps promote the game ensuring it’s survival even in difficult economic conditions.

2)  Eliminate Internet voting

It would appear that a number of irregularities have cropped up since allowing the rest of the world to have a say.  It shouldn’t come as a surprise then that entire cultures have decided to vote for their own.  Without a doubt the most polarizing figure in the game is Yao Ming.  Thanks to him, the Rockets team and individual players get an inordinate amount of attention.  Just look the latest Western Conference ballot results:  Aaron Brooks (5th among guards), Trevor Ariza (6th among forwards) and Luis Scola (7th among forwards).  In addition, I have no doubt in my mind that Yi will push (probably make) next year’s All-Star game.

However, I don’t think the best move is to suddenly alienate any regions outside of the United States.  If we truly want to globalize basketball, discrimination isn’t the way to go (I’m sure David Stern would agree as it would likely hinder the amount of revenue generated by the NBA).

Eventually, you have to believe the more familiar other cultures become with the NBA, the more likely people will vote based on performance.  It appears even a significant portion of Chinese questioned Yi almost making it last year:

China’s 350 million basketball fans have become an important group for the NBA, so it is not surprising that Yi, a Chinese national, rank thirds in the voting. They believe the votes cast by Chinese fans should carry equal weight with those cast by American or German fans, and they have called on others to be self-confident in participating in the vote.

But others argue that Yi’s skills are not good enough for him to become a starter in the All-Star game. They say some fans have voted for him repeatedly or even resorted to manipulating computer software in an attempt to give him enough votes to be included on the All-Star game’s roster.

Those that believe Yi’s skills as a basketball player are below par say the level of All-Star game is lowered by such tactics, which constitute cheating. They also note that forcing the NBA’s global fans to accept the voting results of Chinese fans is not good for the future development of Yi, whom they believe is not qualified to take part in the All-Star game at present.

Source:  China Daily

3)  Impose Certain Criteria

Another possible method to attempt to regulate All-Star selection would be placing certain restrictions.  There are countless ones that come to mind.  Perhaps the NBA places fewer names on the ballot and does away with write-ins.  How about having fan votes be worth less and be combined with expert/player/coach voting (something similar to the NFL’s Pro Bowl)?  Or maybe set up some simple criteria that have been advocated by players like Brandon Roy?

“Maybe they should do it where you have to play a certain amount of games to start,” said Roy, who was ninth in the voting for guards. “If you play in a certain amount of games, then you get to start or play before they announce the team.”

Source:  OregonLive.com

This could conceivably work but it would still be subject to scrutiny, not to mention the added requirement of increased resources.  Fans could still upset the notion of fairness under any one of those purported changes.  In addition, in many cases additional criteria would result in more work by the NBA especially since paper ballots are still used.  What would happen when the first ballots are released and then a player misses a number of games?

4)  Players & Coaches Decide Rosters Then Fans Decide Starters

In my opinion, the coaches and players in the Association should select the entire rosters up to a month before the actual game is to be held.  There is no doubt that they would come up with a very deserving roster as peers normally judge quite objectively.  Then allow the fans to vote electronically (whether through the internet or booths at arenas) starting a month before the actual game.  If deemed necessary, allow the fans to also have 1 additional write-in vote for an extra bench slot.  This would satisfy their need to select that one player they want to see participate, whether for cultural or nostalgic reasons.

There are a multitude of benefits by adopting such a selection process.  First, it allows the NBA to set up the fairest system in maintaining a tradition of great NBA players in the All Star game where fans still play an important role.  Second, it would move the NBA towards the 21st century whereby eliminating the use of paper ballots.  Lastly, it would lead a better promotion of the game by giving the most deserving players the credit.  For instance, small market teams would benefit by reducing the emphasis on obscurity.  Also, the NBA would be less likely to suffer the retirements of certain generations.  In most people’s minds, the NBA has dipped when greats like Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan retired without having someone immediately step into their big shoes.  By adopting this proposed system, NBA transitions would probably go much more smoothly.

While I’m not that incensed about either Tmac or AI (as compared to a near Yi debacle), there is a window open where one day a completely undeserving player who was never great at any time may be announced among the league’s best.  Please, if you have a minute to spare, go over to NBA.com and make the right choice.  Paper balloting will continue through Jan. 10, while wireless balloting and voting on NBA.com will conclude Jan. 18.

Legends are born the same way fortunes are made in basketball: through clutch late game heroics. Among active NBA players, Hedo Turkoglu has a reputation for being a late game assassin who will take and make big shots. After all, his nickname is the Michael Jordan of Turkey as a homage to the League’s undisputed king of clutch.

Since winning the Most Improved Player Award for the 2007-08 season, Turk’s stock has risen steadily, culminating in last season’s deep post-season run complete with an NBA Finals appearance. Along the way, Hedo has steadily become known for being a guy that can be relied upon to hit the big shot.

Shots like that game winner against the Celtics last season stick in our collective memory banks further reinforcing Turk’s mythical clutch status. They also helped Hedo get a nice payday from the Toronto Raptors, who paid a premium (over $50 million over five years) to obtain the six-foot-ten forward’s services.

Take a look at the following quote that was taken from a post from Hoop Doctors, as it is fairly representative of Hedo’s Turk perceived status as a clutch shooter. The post lists the NBA’s most clutch shooters and has Turk ranked fifth overall, ahead of truly clutch players such as Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony (neither of which make the list’s top fifteen clutch shooters).

Last season, Turk probably hit more clutch shots than anyone, but with a new home and a new team this season, it will be interesting if he still gets those same opportunities to be a game-saver. In the ’09 playoffs, Turkoglu showed he understands the moment by increasing his free throw, field goal, and 3-point percentages.

With that in mind, let’s first examine Turk’s shooting efficiency numbers.

Hedo’s shooting statistics are important because clutch shooting doesn’t only occur in the fourth quarter when the game is on the line. On the contrary, there are a number of important moments throughout a game that can be considered clutch. Coming out of a timeout in a must-score scenario involves clutch play whether in the first quarter of fourth. In fact, considering how precious each and every possession is in a basketball game, each play is rather significant and affects the outcome of the game.

So what do Hedo’s shooting statistics tell us about Hedo the shooter?

A lot actually.

In general, Hedo is not an elite shooter, no matter how you slice and dice the numbers. Looking at the raw shooting statistics, Turk is actually a below average shooter from the field, shooting .439 from the field this season this season and .413 last season. From deep, Turk is a fairly average shooter relative to all players that play over 30 minutes a game, shooting .398 this season and .356 last season. The raw numbers don’t look so hot but couldn’t that be a function of Hedo taking a large number of threes (4.6 three point attempts this season and 4.9 attempts in 2008-09)?

To control for three point attempts when considering shooting efficiency, consider effective field goal percentage. Effective field goal percentage compensates three pointers by weighting them according to their value (1.5 times a normal field goal). This season, Turk’s effective field goal percentage is slightly higher than the league average for players playing over 30 minutes a night (.523 versus average of .501). Last season, Turk was slightly below average (.478 versus an average of .506). Nothing mind blowing here and Hedo can probably be considered an average shooter amongst NBA starters.

If you divide the NBA shooters loosely into tiers, Turkoglu would not qualify for elite status. For comparison’s sake, let’s take a look at two of the league’s leading shooters this season to have a benchmark for what elite shooting statistics look like. When talking about great shooters, there is no better poster child than two time MVP Steve Nash. The Canadian Kid’s raw shooting statistics this season are .529/.431/.942 percent shooting. He is on track to join the extremely selective 50/40/90 club (again). If you consider effective field goal percentage, Nash’s shooting looks even more impressive at .595 percent. For a more recent member to join the top tier of shooters in the NBA this season, look no further than sophomore swingman Anthony Morrow. Morrow’s raw statistics are extremely impressive at .529/.514/.885 percent. His ridiculous three point percentage is the main driver of his equally ludicrous .641 eFG%. Compared to top tier shooters, Turk pales in comparison.

So he may not be an elite shooter but what about Hedo the clutch shooter?

With that in mind, let’s boil Turk’s down to the most clutch of all moments: fourth quarter/overtime scenarios when the game is on the line. Using 82 Games’ clutch criterion, clutch play is furthered narrowed down to the last five minutes when neither team is ahead by more than five points. These plays are the essence of clutch and provide an objective way of sorting fact from fiction.

The data from 82 Games has not been updated for this season so we can only go off of last year’s data. Much of the data is provided in per-48 minute form, meaning the statistics are scaled to 48 minutes of clutch time (as defined earlier). In these 48 minutes of clutch time (based off of a sample size of 134 minutes for Turk), Hedo averaged 26.6 points, which was good for 51st overall. Not terrible, but certainly not elite. More damningly, however, is Turk’s efficiency from the field during clutch time (.357), which was significantly worse than his season average and was good for 156th overall.

Compare these clutch numbers to a player like Lebron James and the contrast is startling. In his 48 minutes (compiled from a sample size of 111 minutes), James averaged 55.9 points on .556 percent shooting from the field, which represents a marked improvement upon his normal field goal percentage of .489. A truly clutch player rises to the occasion and elevates their performance to another level when the game is on the line. Turkoglu’s statistical track record just doesn’t mesh with people’s percetptions of Hedo the fourth quarter assassin.

It appears Hedo’s clutch shooting might have been a bit overblown. How can you explain that?

At risk of getting too philosophical, the problem lies within each of our minds as humans (don’t say I didn’t warn you). People have selective memories where we remember events that coincide with our preexisting beliefs and ignore events that contradict our beliefs. When we see Turk hit a buzzer beater on Sports Center it reinforces the idea that he is a clutch shooter. When we see Hedo miss a clutch three, it goes down as a non-event because it doesn’t gel with our preexisting perception that Turk is a clutch shooter.

For a real life example, check out the following quote from the New York Times that was written during the 2008-09 NBA Finals.

The line between success and setback blurred again for Turkoglu, who has developed into a clutch shooter for the Magic. With little time left in the game, Turkoglu has come up big for the Magic. His résumé includes a game-winning shot in the first round against the Philadelphia 76ers and several game-winners the past two regular seasons.

On Sunday Turkoglu delivered everything but the win.

“I saw an opening and threw it up,” Turkoglu said of his inbounds floater to Lee. “It would have been great for us because we played good.”

In this quote, you’ll notice that the author is paying homage to Turk’s reputation as a clutch shooter in a game that Turk didn’t even hit the game winner. In fact, the final shot wasn’t even put into his hands. Instead, the play was drawn up for Courtney Lee who infamously missed the wide open alley-oop. If Hedo was the clutch shooter as advertised, you can guarantee Coach Van Gundy would have drawn up the final play for Turk to shoot and not pass.

In the end, a lot of the blame for Turk’s inflated reputation as a clutch shooter lies with the media, who glorifies his late-game heroics (event) but ignores his failures (non-event). Once designated clutch, the media picks up the story and runs with it, creating a feedback loop. It parallels the talk from before this season’s draft, which had fans, announcers, coaches, players and everyone in between talking about what a weak draft pool it was. With Brandon Jennings increasingly the next anointed superstar, Tyreke Evans putting the Kings franchise on his back and first pick overall Blake Griffin having not even played a single minute yet this season, it is clear that the draft class of 2009 had bona fide superstars in its midst despite the media writing the entire class off as weak.

Before declaring Turkoglu one of the top five clutch shooters in the NBA based upon glowing accounts in the media, analyze the empirical evidence and make your own informed decision.

Of all the great basketball debates, none is more divisive than the Kobe Bryant versus Michael Jordan debate. In all likelihood, there will never be consensus as to who should be the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time), especially if Kobe picks up another couple of rings before hangin’ em up. The debate is so compelling because Bryant and Jordan are/were shooting guards that dominated their respective eras.

The 23-versus-24 debate often centers around weak arguments, comparing apples to oranges or relying on the subjective rather than the objective. The NBA’s official basketball magazine, Hoop,  just committed such a transgression when it made a general argument claiming that Bryant was a much better defender than Jordan.

Before presenting the full quote, consider the context. In recapping the 2008-09 season, Hoop compiled lists of various sorts. Top buzzer beaters. Top teams. Top regular season performances. In all, the categories were more or less pedestrian and what you would expect. However the perimeter defender, put Kobe Bryant third overall, after Houston’s Shane Battier and Atlanta’s Marvin Williams.

For the record, there’s nothing wrong with Bryant at third overall (I would argue with Marvin at second though) but the blurb explaining why Bryant deserves to be number three for 2008-09 is where the problem lies.

Bryant has oftentimes been compared to Michael Jordan unfairly, but if there’s one aspect of their games which KB24 comes out on top it’s been defense. While Jordan developed into an elite defender with time, Bryant has been a top-notch defender from the time he first stepped foot onto an NBA court. During his first two years in the League, Bryant was the guy that L.A. brought off the bench to cool off a hot hand. His athletic gifts, length and high basketball understanding enabled him to frustrate scorers. His role has since changed, but when the game is tight, you’ll always see #24 manning up against the other team’s top dog.

Source: Hoop, September/October 2009

Ignoring the fact that there is no reason to bring Jordan into the debate as to why Bryant deserves consideration as the third best perimeter defender in 2008-09, the numbers just don’t support the claims that Hoop is making in the above quote (reproduced in it’s entirety to provide the full context). With Bryant beginning his thirteenth season, it is only fair to compare Jordan’s first twelve seasons to Kobe’s first twelve.

First, take a look at the two main claims Hoop is making in their argument:

Claim Number One: Bryant has oftentimes been compared to Michael Jordan unfairly, but if there’s one aspect of their games which KB24 comes out on top it’s been defense.

Claim Number Two: While Jordan developed into an elite defender with time, Bryant has been a top-notch defender from the time he first stepped foot onto an NBA court.

Next, examine the corresponding statistics and facts, all courtesy of the web’s finest online basketball statistics site, Basketball Reference.

To compare Michael’s and Kobe’s defensive abilities objectively, we’ll examine several viable angles.  First, we’ll look at individual defensive awards, such as All-Defensive Team honors and Defensive Player of the Year Awards.

• All-Defensive First Team: Bryant 7, Jordan 8
• All-Defensive Second Team: Bryant 2, Jordan 0
• Total All-Defensive Team: Bryant 9, Jordan 8
• Defensive Player of the Year: Bryant 0, Jordan 1

Bryant has the edge on total All-Defensive teams in his first twelve seasons. However, all of Jordan’s appearances were on the First Team, while Bryant appeared on the Second Team twice. It is more or less a push. However, the edge goes to Jordan with the Defensive Player of the Year Award, which is considered the most prestigious defensive award in the Association.

Second, individual defensive statistics provide another objective means of comparison. Two such metrics are Defensive Win Shares (an estimate of the number of wins a player contributed to his team through his defense) and individual Defensive Ratings (an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions). With  Defensive Ratings, it is important to compare it relative to each year’s average, as it fluctuates from season to season. Remember with D-Ratings, a negative differential is more desirable than a positive differential (Offensive Ratings are the exact opposite). With Win Shares, the scale is static as there is a consistent number of possible wins per season (82).

Bryant’s Numbers

Over his first twelve seasons, Bryant’s average D-Rating was 104.8 compared to a 105.2 D-Rating over the same period giving him a differential of -0.4. In Defensive Win Shares, Bryant was good for an average of 2.9 per season. These numbers both provide support for the claim that Bryant was an above average defender.

But are they better than Jordan’s numbers?

Jordan’s Numbers

Over Michael’s first twelve seasons, his D-Rating was 103.3 versus a league average of 107.8, working out to a net -4.6. In Defensive Win Shares terms, MJ contributed an average of 4.4 wins per season through his defense alone. These statistics seem to support the claims that Jordan was an excellent defender and, subsequently, he was a better defender than the Black Mamba.

When you consider both individual defensive awards and the individual defensive statistics available, Hoop’s first claim that Bryant is a better defender than Jordan seriously fails to hold water.  Hence, let’s move onto the second claim that KB was a better defender than Jordan early on in their respective years.

We’ll narrow the twelve season data down to just the first five seasons and look at the same metrics and awards. In terms of Defensive Win Shares per season, Jordan finished in the top ten three separate times (1986-87: 4th, 1987-88:  3rd, 1988-89: 5th); Bryant accomplished the same feat only once (1999-00: 10th). In terms of D-Ratings, Jordan finished in the top ten during one season (1987-88: 6th) with Bryant never accomplishing the same feat. Edge: Jordan.

For individual defensive awards during the first five seasons, the evidence is similarly conclusive. Bryant was named to two All-Defensive Teams (1999-00: 1st; 2000-01: 2nd). Jordan was selected for two All-Defensive Teams (1987-88: 1st; 1988-89: 1st). During that same time span, Jordan also earned his only Defensive Player of the Year Award (1987-88). Again, Michael is the clear-cut winner.

Considering the aforementioned evidence, it is clear that Hoop’s second claim is also not supported by the evidence.

In the end, Hoop’s two main claims that Bryant was the better defender both overall and early-on during their respective careers both wither under scrutiny. Although it seems to run against reason, Jordan’s defense is actually consistently underrated, despite being widely promoted as the GOAT.

While there is no inherent problem in arguing that one player is better than another, it is important to support such claims with some sort of empirical evidence then mere subjectivity. In failing to bolster their primary claims in regards to Bryant’s and Jordan’s defensive abilities, Hoop did a disservice to both itself and all critical basketball minds.

Moving forward with our quest to find the late round and waiver wire gold, we turn our focus to J.R. Smith. If there was some correlation between having a shitload of tattoos and being really good at basketball, then J.R. would be the next Michael Jordan and a guaranteed first round fantasy pick. As a team, the Nuggets would be a dynasty with Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony and the Birdman all on the roster and sporting quite a bit of ink.

Too bad for this guy...

Since that’s not how the world actually works, he’s a mid-round fantasy pick valued solely for his chucking offensive prowess.  Smith is a first round product of the 2004 NBA Draft originally drafted by New Orleans. He came straight out of high school with the reputation as a high-flyer and potent scorer. Five seasons later, we’re still waiting for him to live up to his enormous potential.

Last season, Smith was the sixth man for the Nuggets. He had the primary role of providing a spark off the bench with his ability to score and hit the long long ball (he has serious range and can light it up when he’s hot). J.R. really flourished with this role last season and he averaged about 27 minutes per game during both the regular season and the playoffs.

Since last season, the Nuggets have made a couple of moves that impact that allocation of minutes at the two and three. The Nuggets lost both Dahntay Jones (18.1 minutes per game last season) and Linas Kleiza (22.2 minutes per game last season) while adding Aaron Afflalo (16.7 minutes per game last season). J.R. should now be slated to earn at least 30-32 minutes a night and his breakout sleeper potential will finally be realized.

Last season, Smith was fifth in total three-pointers made. With a few extra minutes this year, there’s no reason he can’t lead the league in treys. He averaged 15.2 points per game last season and with more time on the court, 20 points per game is not out of the question. The biggest knock on Smith has been his consistently been his inconsistency.

He is the definition of a streaky shooter. He will fire away from anywhere on the court at any time. When he is hot fantasy owners will rejoice, but when he is cold he can’t buy a bucket (and your field goal percentage will take a serious hit). Owning J.R. Smith is not for the faint of heart.

As a sixth man, he was out there to score as much as possible as fast as possible. His new role should offer him the chance to settle down on offense a little bit and get into a nice rhythm early on. If Smith can elevate his game to a level where he is scoring and distributing the ball effectively to his teammates, then his fantasy value will reach new heights.

He needs to provide more than just raw offensive production and threes. If he is able to rack up a few assists and a steal or two along the way, he could vastly outperform his Buser Sports ADP of 93rd overall. For reference, Yahoo! has given Smith an O-Rank of 83rd overall.

Let’s take a look at Smith’s per-36 minute stats from last season; he averaged 19.8 points on .446/.754 percent shooting, 2.9 threes, 4.8 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 2.4 turnovers. Looking at the numbers, Smith’s three point shooting and scoring ability stand out. He has low percentages but that’s the caveat that comes with him (as well as a horrid driving record). If Smith can put a strangle hold on the starting two-guard spot, he could easily approach his 2008-09 per-36 minute numbers.

J.R. Smith is a calculated fantasy risk, as he is slated to miss the first seven games of the season due to his aforementioned driving issues. Despite missing the first seven games, Smith is a solid bet to outperform his draft position in the middle rounds due to a solid increase in PT.

As he has proven in his first five seasons in the Association, he can be hotheaded and volatile both on and off the court. But if he is given the chance to start and see respectable minutes (33 minutes or more per game) he can really be a diamond in the mid-round rough. Smith has the tendency to start off the season slow and then build momentum as the season progresses (check out his All-Star Game splits).

So if you draft him next season, be patient early on and he’ll come around and will eventually make if rain for your fantasy squad.

People are naturally more comfortable with the familiar. Whether it be taking the same route to work every morning or watching your favorite movie fifty times, people like things to be predictable. I would have to guess that NBA players have the same comfort levels that we possessors of average athletic ability hold as well. They are not super heroes or somehow above the rest of us (although sometimes the media and the public’s perception points to this).

So why does it seem like there is such a lack of true loyalty among NBA players to one’s franchise, fans and city?

There used to be true loyalty among players in the league years ago. Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul Jabaar, Tim Duncan and Larry Bird all won multiple championships with one team. They stayed around through free agency and rebuilding periods and they got it done for their respective teams time and time again. Today it seems that there isn’t quite the same sense of devotion.

Players are too quick to bolt for a rival team if the pasture is greener on the other side (greener more often than not means more money). Think about all of the time, resources and effort a team has to put into a player that it views as the future of the franchise. The team is completely invested in the player from the scouting period, to the point when they sign their contract. Teams want that player to feel comfortable and at home in their city. They should feel important and desired and that is why NBA teams pull out all the stops when it comes to courting and retaining a franchise player.

Too often today teams and their loyal fans are being spurned by the same athletes they once cheered for. Take Hedo Turkoglu for example. After leading his Orlando Magic all the way to the franchise’s best season and a trip to the Finals, what does Hedo do in the off season? He leaves his championship caliber team and signs a deal (tentative) with the Toronto Raptors.

Why leave a team that obviously wants him and one that is in much better position to contend for a title than Toronto? It has to be money. The almighty dollar, especially in today’s economy, seems to have more pull than ever.

Ben Gordon has spent his entire career with the Chicago Bulls. After reportedly rejecting a 5 year $50 million deal from Chicago last season, he signed with the Pistons for 5 years and $55 million. Why not stay with the team that drafted you and allowed you to showcase your unique skill set instead of acting like a mercenary and leaving for which ever squad can pay you only a few million more?  I do realize it is disgusting and totally ridiculous to say “only a few million more,” but for an NBA player and their tax bracket it is only a drop in the bucket.

Trevor Ariza, after winning it all with the Lakers this year, bolts for Houston. Ron Artest took the Rockets farther in the playoffs than they had been in years. After Yao Ming went down, the Rockets were in need of someone to step in and take control of the young cast of talented role players they had assembled. Why not offer to make Artest one of your franchise cornerstones? Well you can’t if he signs with the Lakers, which turned out to be the case.

Dwayne Wade has been in the news recently talking about his future in Miami, or potential lack thereof. Wade basically stated that he would like to hold off on signing a multi-year extension with the Heat until he knows that they are working to put themselves in position to win a championship. Wade wants to make sure he is playing for a team that can contend for a title every year and is not just content to make the playoffs as a fifth seed.

I completely get this. Wade is entering the prime of his career, he can completely dominate a game and he wants to make sure his skills aren’t wasted on an average team. This guy is a winner and I respect his stance, but I am hoping he stays in Miami and wins another ring or two. It would be nice to see that level of commitment to a team that he once led to a championship and now has the opportunity to build a dynasty with. That is assuming the Heat do their part and bring in some talent.

With a number of the league’s brightest stars (Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar’e Stoudemire, for example) potentially going into free agency next season where will their loyalties fall? Will it be with their currnet team or will they follow the dollar to another city and fan base? I can only hope to see some of these players stay with the current teams and build a legacy in the tradition of some of the games biggest stars of years past.

When writing about the greatest of all time of anything (person, place or thing) it is difficult to not get pulled into certain traps. For Michael Jordan, the one true king of basketball, the classic trap is to try and identify ‘the next Jordan’ or to argue that another player is ‘better than Jordan.’ Trying to find ‘the next Jordan’ is fool’s gold as there will never be another quite like him; it’s borderline blasphemy.

Jordan means a lot of different things to different people (just ask a random sampling of people in both Chicago and in Salt Lake City what they think of Jordan and you will most likely hear contradictory statements). What do you associate with Jordan? Is it:

• Six rings (with six finals MVPs)?
• Five regular season MVPs?
• Clutch shooting?
• Slam dunk contests?
• Fourteen all star games?
• Style (tongue wagging or the fist pump)?
• Killer instinct?
• Money ($93,772,500 in salary and a small country’s GDP in endorsements)?
• The flu?

Or maybe someone will talk about his career averages of 30.1 points on 49.7/32.7/83.5 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.3 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 2.7 turnovers. Or maybe his best season? Hard to decide but from a fantasy perspective, I would probably take the 1987-88 season. In that year, Jordan played all 82 games and averaged 35.0 points on 53.5/13.2/84.1 percent shooting, 0.1 threes, 5.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 3.2 steals, 1.6 blocks, and 3.1 turnovers per game. His only real flaw was that he hadn’t yet developed his range out to the three point line. What is really striking though is his defensive production and his field goal percentage (anything above fifty percent from a guard is gravy).

Which begs the question: how often do you hear about Jordan’s defense?

Defense is what separates Jordan from all who have come after him. Half of what made Jordan the greatest of all time is that he played with such incredible intensity and passion on both ends of the floor. After all, he didn’t make nine All-Defensive teams for nothing. Or lead the league in steals in three different seasons (also second in career steal totals after only John Stockton).

Consider ‘the shot’ in Game Six of the 1998 NBA Finals. Heading into that game in the United Center in Salt Lake, the Bulls led the series 3-2. The score was 86-85 in favor of the Jazz, who had the ball and the last shot. Karl Malone had the ball in the post… Well, just see for yourself.

Every basketball fan (especially the Utah Jazz fans) remember that moment very clearly. It was to be Jordan’s lost shot as a Chicago Bull. It capped Jordan’s legacy as the greatest of all time. It is a shot for the ages. But what about his defense and hustle? Nobody talks about how Jordan came baseline in the low post and stripped the Mailman of his final precious delivery of the game (and ultimately of the season). Nobody talks about how Jordan recovers the loose ball, which ended the Jazz’s possibility of scoring on what would prove to be the second-to-last possession of the Jazz’s season.

Everybody remembers the devastatingly clutch shots Jordan hit along the way and the dreams of other greats that he personally crushed. Ironically, few remember the tenacious defense that gave him the opportunity to take the shot and crush the hopes and dreams of others. Remember, if he doesn’t steal the  ball from Malone, he never has the opportunity to hit ‘the shot.’ To this day, no one has been able to impose his will on the game of basketball like Jordan could in his prime. And it all started on the defensive end of the floor.

Do Michael justice; remember him for both ‘the shot’ and the steal.

The Los Angeles Clippers Memphis Grizzlies win the 2009 NBA Draft Lottery!

1. Los Angeles (17.7%)
2. Memphis (8.3%)
3. Oklahoma City (13.2%)
4. Sacramento (17.7%)
5. Washington (13.7%)
6. Minnesota (38.5%)
7. Golden State (60.0%)
8. New York (72.5%)
9. Toronto (81.3%)
10. Milwaukee (87.0%)
11. New Jersey (90.4%)
12. Charlotte (93.5%)
13. Indiana (96.0%)
14. Phoenix (98.2%)

Although the Clippers won the Blake Griffin Sweepstakes, the Memphis Grizzlies are the ones that really defied that odds and upgraded the most in the lottery. With only an 8.3 percent chance of landing the second pick in this year’s draft, Memphis overcame the biggest odds to secure its lottery pick. With the second pick, the player with the biggest upside is Spanish guard Ricky Rubio. However, the Grizzlies recently traded Kyle Lowry to Houston in a move that was widely interpreted as a sign of support for their young starting point guard out of Ohio State, Mike Conley.

A few months later, how would it look if Memphis turns around and drafts another point guard in this season’s draft? To look at it from another perspective, does it really matter what Conley thinks about the move at all? Well, yes and no. From management’s perspective, the team should take the best player available with the second pick of the draft (no). From a coach’s perspective, it is important to show public support for your point guard because he is the filter between the coaching staff and the players. He makes the entire offense and defense function (yes).

Positional needs can always be addressed during the offseason and even up until the trade deadline. However, a second pick overall allows you the opportunity to get premier talent on the cheap. If you draft by position instead of by talent and ceiling with the second pick in the draft, you end up with Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan. Although Memphis does lack size, passing on Rubio could end up being a “Bowie” moment for the Grizzlies franchise as Rubio has the potential to be a very special player.

Regarding the “real” winner of the draft lottery, the Clippers have an opportunity that they can’t screw up. They can’t screw this up, can they? The first step to success for L.A.’s other team is to draft Blake Griffin. No need to spend money on costly workouts or interviews this year. Second, get rid of Zach Randolph. Worst. Possession. Ever. If I am Clippers owner Donald Sterling (which, thankfully, I am not), I have already called, texted or twittered every other owner in the league to personally let them know that Z-Bo is available. That is addition by subtraction (Randolph) and just plain old addition (Griffin). Success!

One of the most anticipated and least understood hallmarks of the NBA season is rapidly approaching. In just over a month, the 2009 NBA Draft will take place at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Before teams can really start to strategize though, the Draft Lottery must first take place.

This year’s Draft Lottery will take place on May 17, 2009 and will alter the fate of franchises, as they have each year since the lottery’s inception in 1985. By most accounts, the lottery system was established to prevent intentional tanking, which many said the Houston Rockets did in order to acquire top draft prospect Hakeem Olajuwon. The irony of the situation is that the Chicago Bulls selected an athletic guard from North Carolina named Michael Jordan with the third pick overall.

So the Rockets’ perceived tanking did not even net them the best player of the 1984 draft class. However, you cannot fault the Rockets franchise for taking The Dream with the first overall pick. His size and athleticism were a slam dunk to translate immediately to the NBA. Almost nobody could have predicted that Jordan would eventually become the league’s best player of all time (well, maybe legendary UNC Coach Dean Smith might have been able to see what was to come or Jordan himself). But I digress…

For the fourteen teams that failed to make the playoffs this year, this Tuesday evening will be one of the most highly anticipated events of the off season. The fate of fourteen franchises rests upon fourteen ping-pong balls and a few independent accountants.

How the Lottery Actually Works

Everyone knows that the draft lottery involves ping-pong balls with teams being assigned a certain probability of obtaining the top three picks. However, few appreciate the subtleties of exactly how the draft lottery is carried out.

Each of the fourteen ping-pong balls is assigned a number, from one through fourteen. For each of the top three picks, four ping-pong balls are selected, with the order of the numbers being irrelevant. By not paying attention to the order in which the balls are selected, it reduces the number of different combinations from24,024 to 1,001 (the 1,001st  combination, 11-12-13-14, does not belong to any team; it is disregarded if it is ever chosen in order to provide a nice, even number for assigning odds).

These number combinations are assigned to the fourteen lottery teams with the team with the worst record “owning” 250 combinations and the team with the best record “owning” a paltry 5 combinations. Thus, this season the Sacramento Kings have a twenty-five percent chance of securing the first pick in this year’s draft and obtaining this year’s consensus number one pick, Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin. On the other end of the spectrum, the Phoenix Suns have a half of a percent chance of winning the 2009 Griffin Sweepstakes. For a complete listing of odds by team and by pick number, refer to the 2009 NBA Draft Wikipedia page.

But what happens if two teams end up with the same (bad) record? How are the number of combinations assigned? This season, there were three pairs of lottery teams that ended the regular season with the same records: Wizards and Clippers (19-63); Timberwolves and Grizzlies (24-58); and Bucks and Nets (34-48). Let’s use the example of the Wizards and Clippers to illustrate how tied records affect the distribution of ping-pong ball combinations.

The Wizards and Clippers tied for the second best-worst record in the league by notching up nineteen wins each in highly disappointing seasons for both franchises. Under normal circumstances, the second worst team is assigned 199 combinations and the third worst team is assigned 156 combinations (giving a combined total of 355). However, in a tie situation, the teams are assigned an almost even share with random drawing determining which team gains the additional ping pong ball (one team gets 178 ping-pong balls and the other team gets 177). This season, the Wizards won the tiebreaker and were awarded the 178th ping-pong ball combination.

So that is a crash course in how the 1,000 combinations are assigned to the fourteen lottery teams. With the combinations assigned, the next step is the lottery itself which is repeated three times to determine who will obtain the first, second and third picks. For the first pick overall, four ping-pong balls are selected with the team that “owns” the pulled combination being the big lottery winner. The balls are replaced. Rinse. Wash. Repeat. Once the first three picks are assigned, the remaining teams are assigned picks four through fourteen based solely upon records, with pick four going to the team of the remaining eleven with the worst record and so on (refer back to tie breakers for teams with the same records).

Final Thoughts

Although it matters a great deal, draft position is not the only thing that matters when it comes to drafting the next superstar. Although there is a strong correlation between draft position and career performance, there are plenty of examples of teams drafting a Sam Bowie before a Jordan or a team snagging a Gilbert Arenas or a Rashard Lewis in the second round of the draft. The single most important factor in a team’s ability to spot and draft the next superstar is the team’s front office and the due diligence they conduct between the lottery and the actual draft. This is where scouting, workouts, interviews, research and just plain intuition come into play and separate the great franchises from the average.