Basketball Free For All

Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

In competitive fantasy leagues, it’s never too early to start to identify potential sleepers for next season. Even though almost anything can change over the next few months, some players are already emerging as potential studs or breakout candidates for 2009-10.

The recipe for a potential sleeper is never the same. Sometimes it is true progression as a player, other times a trade or injury opens up minutes for a player. It can even be a truly unexplainable phenomenon. Whatever the reason, breakout players are essential to securing the ever-elusive hardware when playing against other knowledgeable managers.

Let’s break the potential sleepers into three groups: the guards, the forwards and the centers. We’ve already seen some of the guards.

Now, let’s take a look at the forwards.

Anthony Randolph – This summer’s worst kept secret, unfortunately. If you play in even a mildly competitive league, you’ve no doubt already heard all about Randolph.

So, is he all hype or is Randolph for real?

AR is legit. There is nothing not to like about this kid. He is a must have in most keeper and all dynasty formats. First, he has the numbers. From last season, his rookie season, his per-36 minute statistics were 15.9 points on .462/.716 percent shooting, 11.6 rebounds (4.1 offensive), 0.0 threes, 1.6 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.4 blocks with 2.4 turnovers.

Assuming no progression as a player and simply an increase in minutes (played only 17.9 minutes per game last season), Randolph becomes fantasy relevant. The defensive production to go with everything else is what really clues you in to Randolph’s potential fantasy value. And if you assume production gains as he develops as a player, Anthony becomes even more intriguing of an option.

Oh, and did I mention he was the youngest player in the league last season too?

When I try and decipher how rookies will develop in the future, I examine two major factors. First is skill, which covers both basketball skills and physical gifts. Randolph has both in spades and will continue to develop both aspects as he acclimates to the NBA and continues to fill out his ridiculous frame (7′3″ wingspan).

The second major factor that shapes how young players develop is work ethic. This is what really separates Randolph from other potential sleepers. Randolph had been working diligently to improve his game and get stronger this offseason. He has the drive of a winner that really sets him apart from the average player.

With all that being said, Randolph is a slam dunk, right?

Well, not exactly. Anthony plays for the NBA’s most eccentric coach, Don Nelson. Also know to fantasy managers as that son of a bitch. With Nellie being notoriously fickle, most managers have learned to never rule anything out when it comes to Coach Nelson, no matter how inane it sounds.

Corey Maggette at power forward or center? Sure, why not?

Some people are not buying the “hype” with Randolph but in the end the ingredients necessary for the recipe for success are all there. With Coach Nelson’s contract up after next season, Randolph will be freed soon enough (if not next season). Soon, everyone will be on the bandwagon. But for next season, if you want Randolph, you must reach for him. Chances are that someone else is buying what Randolph is selling and will be aggressively pursuing him next season.

For keeper formats of more than four keepers, Randolph will not slip out of the first round. In competitive redraft leagues, his average draft position so far this season is 68th overall (Buser Sports) so to lock him up he should be targeted in the 6th-7th rounds.

Don’t Sleep on Anthony Randolph.

Michael Beasley — Oh, how the mighty have fallen. After Beasley seemed to be pulling everything together at the end of last season, he quickly is challenging Crazy Pills Ron Artest as the Association’s biggest headcase (Stephon Marbury doesn’t count as he, as he himself recently pointed out, is not under contract by any team and therefor not technically in the league anymore). His recent Twitter/weed/depression episode has certainly called his focus into question (and for good reason).

But why were people calling Beasley a potential sleeper anyway? Dude was only good for 176th in per game value and 141st in cumulative value.

His post-All Star break splits were nice, if only for the increased efficiency; his actual production was more or less static. He went from shooting .455/.382/.768 before the All-Star Game to shooting .501/.462/.779 after the break (not to mention a dip in turnovers per game as well). The efficiency gains were what piqued the interest of fantasy managers and led many to begin calling Beasley a potential sleeper for next season.

Then weedgate hit. And the rest, like talk of Beasley being a potential sleeper should be, is history.

There are two main ways players respond to adversity in their lives. One, is by focusing all their emotions from the difficult situation into basketball, which actually enhances their play. This requires maturity and focus, both of which Beasley lacks. This is how the true legends of the game deal with diversity. It is the much ballyhooed “heart of a champion.”

The second response is to give up and wallow in the face of adversity. This is Beasley’s most likely response, if his short history in the league is any indicator. Next season is looking more and more likely to be a lost season for Beasley, as his personal issues look to affect his basketball production. Do yourself a favor and let someone else deal with the headache of owning Bongsley Beasley next season.

Kevin Love – To be perfectly honest, Love is not going to be the next Dwight Howard. But, he has been more or less underrated (or just plain overlooked in basketball Purgatory, aka Minnesota). What many people fail to realize is that Love is an excellent rebounder. Therein lies his true value and potential as a sleeper.

WARNING: a comparison between two players’ career statistics is going to be made but by no means is it endorsing the idea that these two players will have similar career paths. The comparison is to illustrate exactly how good of a rebounder Love is and will be in the future.

Look at Dwight Howard’s career statistics compared to Kevin Love’s career statistics (and by career I mean his rookie season).  Their career per-36 minute rebounding statistics are remarkably similar, with Love having the advantage on the offensive boards (4.8 to 3.6)! Not surprisingly, their rebounding rates are similar, which measures the percentage of total boards a player grabs while on the floor.

Howard is a player that everyone can agree is an excellent rebounder. The fact that Love’s rebounding statistics compare favorably to Superman’s rebounding statistics in his rookie season certainly bodes well for Love’s future both immediate and long-term.

As far as next season, an increase in minutes should be in order as the Timberwolves continue their rebuilding effort without having added significant pieces to their frontcourt. Love and fellow rebounding machine Al Jefferson are the foundations of Minnesota’s frountcourt next season and for the future.

Next season, Love should build upon his rookie season’s success and increase his fantasy value. As far as possible projections for his production, averaging 15.0 points on .466/.792 percent shooting, 10.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.5 steals, and 0.7 blocks with 1.8 turnovers is within the realm of possibility.

The closer Love can get his field goal percentage to fifty percent, the more likely he is to really solidify his fantasy value. After all, Love will probably never be prone to producing big time numbers in the defensive categories. But, he will give you about a double-double (think David Lee with better rebounding and worse field goal percentage) and hopefully over a block a game and just under a steal a game.

What’s not to well, uhh, love about Love next season.

Wilson Chandler – One of 2008’s hottest sleepers is back, with a vengence. Although Chandler had stretches of solid fantasy production last season, he never really pulled it all together as many prescient managers expected.

For those who don’t know, Wilson Chandler was drafted by the Knicks with the 23rd pick in the 2007 draft out of DePaul University. Chandler played most of his mintutes at the small forward position last season but also played significant minutes at the four for Coach Mike D’Antoni (he even logged minutes at the shooting guard and center positions!). At 6′8″ and 220 pounds, Chandler is undersized at the four, although D’Antoni has never been shy to play guys out of position.

If anyone on the Knicks’ roster is untouchable, it might be Chandler. He is the type of player that thrives in D’Antoni’s uptempo offensive system. He will also be entering his third season in the league, which has traditionally been a year where players take great strides in their production. And since he is still on his rookie contract, his salary situation is nice and does not impinge on the Knicks’ 2010 hopes.

What fantasy production does Chandler have to offer?

Take a look at his per-36 minute statistics from Chandler’s 2008-09 season. He averaged 15.6 points on .431/.328/.795 percent shooting, 1.4 threes, 5.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. He has some serious steal-block-three per game club potential and is an across the board contributor. The only strike against him could be his sub-par field goal percentage, which he will hopefully improve upon as he develops further.

Source: Basketball Free For All

Entering the much discussed third season in the NBA, with the Knicks’ roster substantially unchanged at this point, expect Chandler to be a vital player for Mike D’Antoni next season. He should live up to the potential that has drawn the attention of diligent fantasy managers since his rookie season.

Gerald Wallace — As always, I try and disclose my biases when relevant. Basketball Free For All maintains a strict policy of full disclosure. To that end, it should be said that I am a full-blown Gerald Wallace fan. I love his game, his hustle and his heart. I love just about everything about him. Keep that in mind.

Not a sleeper in the traditional sense, Wallace still should be able to outproduce his draft position (early ADP of 29th overall, again according to Buser Sports). Last season, Wallace’s line was good for 14th in per game and 21st in cumulative value.

Let’s take a trip down memory lane. Last season was the year that saw Wallace missed seven games after suffering a collapsed lung courtesy of Lakers’ center Andrew Bynum. Think about that for a second. The man had his lung punctured, which resulted in it collapsing, and he only missed seven games. This dude is a warrior in the truest of senses.

Make no mistake, you don’t get the nickname  “Crash” for nothing. But being downgraded beyond the mid-third round is ludicrous. When healthy, Wallace has proven early-second round production and is entering his prime (will be only 27 years old next season). If he can put together a fully healthy season along with efficient shooting, Wallace could sneak his way into the first round in terms of per game and cumulative production.

One thing is for sure, though. Owning Wallace is not for the faint of heart. His reckless abandon on the basketball court is why he produces at the level he does. It is also the reason he frequently ends up in the hospital.If you are the type of manager who invests themselves heavily in their fantasy players, it is probably wise for your well-being to avoid watching the Bobcats play next season if you end up snagging G-Wall.

With the guards and forwards down, only the centers remain.