Basketball Free For All

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Of all the great basketball debates, none is more divisive than the Kobe Bryant versus Michael Jordan debate. In all likelihood, there will never be consensus as to who should be the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time), especially if Kobe picks up another couple of rings before hangin’ em up. The debate is so compelling because Bryant and Jordan are/were shooting guards that dominated their respective eras.

The 23-versus-24 debate often centers around weak arguments, comparing apples to oranges or relying on the subjective rather than the objective. The NBA’s official basketball magazine, Hoop,  just committed such a transgression when it made a general argument claiming that Bryant was a much better defender than Jordan.

Before presenting the full quote, consider the context. In recapping the 2008-09 season, Hoop compiled lists of various sorts. Top buzzer beaters. Top teams. Top regular season performances. In all, the categories were more or less pedestrian and what you would expect. However the perimeter defender, put Kobe Bryant third overall, after Houston’s Shane Battier and Atlanta’s Marvin Williams.

For the record, there’s nothing wrong with Bryant at third overall (I would argue with Marvin at second though) but the blurb explaining why Bryant deserves to be number three for 2008-09 is where the problem lies.

Bryant has oftentimes been compared to Michael Jordan unfairly, but if there’s one aspect of their games which KB24 comes out on top it’s been defense. While Jordan developed into an elite defender with time, Bryant has been a top-notch defender from the time he first stepped foot onto an NBA court. During his first two years in the League, Bryant was the guy that L.A. brought off the bench to cool off a hot hand. His athletic gifts, length and high basketball understanding enabled him to frustrate scorers. His role has since changed, but when the game is tight, you’ll always see #24 manning up against the other team’s top dog.

Source: Hoop, September/October 2009

Ignoring the fact that there is no reason to bring Jordan into the debate as to why Bryant deserves consideration as the third best perimeter defender in 2008-09, the numbers just don’t support the claims that Hoop is making in the above quote (reproduced in it’s entirety to provide the full context). With Bryant beginning his thirteenth season, it is only fair to compare Jordan’s first twelve seasons to Kobe’s first twelve.

First, take a look at the two main claims Hoop is making in their argument:

Claim Number One: Bryant has oftentimes been compared to Michael Jordan unfairly, but if there’s one aspect of their games which KB24 comes out on top it’s been defense.

Claim Number Two: While Jordan developed into an elite defender with time, Bryant has been a top-notch defender from the time he first stepped foot onto an NBA court.

Next, examine the corresponding statistics and facts, all courtesy of the web’s finest online basketball statistics site, Basketball Reference.

To compare Michael’s and Kobe’s defensive abilities objectively, we’ll examine several viable angles.  First, we’ll look at individual defensive awards, such as All-Defensive Team honors and Defensive Player of the Year Awards.

• All-Defensive First Team: Bryant 7, Jordan 8
• All-Defensive Second Team: Bryant 2, Jordan 0
• Total All-Defensive Team: Bryant 9, Jordan 8
• Defensive Player of the Year: Bryant 0, Jordan 1

Bryant has the edge on total All-Defensive teams in his first twelve seasons. However, all of Jordan’s appearances were on the First Team, while Bryant appeared on the Second Team twice. It is more or less a push. However, the edge goes to Jordan with the Defensive Player of the Year Award, which is considered the most prestigious defensive award in the Association.

Second, individual defensive statistics provide another objective means of comparison. Two such metrics are Defensive Win Shares (an estimate of the number of wins a player contributed to his team through his defense) and individual Defensive Ratings (an estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions). With  Defensive Ratings, it is important to compare it relative to each year’s average, as it fluctuates from season to season. Remember with D-Ratings, a negative differential is more desirable than a positive differential (Offensive Ratings are the exact opposite). With Win Shares, the scale is static as there is a consistent number of possible wins per season (82).

Bryant’s Numbers

Over his first twelve seasons, Bryant’s average D-Rating was 104.8 compared to a 105.2 D-Rating over the same period giving him a differential of -0.4. In Defensive Win Shares, Bryant was good for an average of 2.9 per season. These numbers both provide support for the claim that Bryant was an above average defender.

But are they better than Jordan’s numbers?

Jordan’s Numbers

Over Michael’s first twelve seasons, his D-Rating was 103.3 versus a league average of 107.8, working out to a net -4.6. In Defensive Win Shares terms, MJ contributed an average of 4.4 wins per season through his defense alone. These statistics seem to support the claims that Jordan was an excellent defender and, subsequently, he was a better defender than the Black Mamba.

When you consider both individual defensive awards and the individual defensive statistics available, Hoop’s first claim that Bryant is a better defender than Jordan seriously fails to hold water.  Hence, let’s move onto the second claim that KB was a better defender than Jordan early on in their respective years.

We’ll narrow the twelve season data down to just the first five seasons and look at the same metrics and awards. In terms of Defensive Win Shares per season, Jordan finished in the top ten three separate times (1986-87: 4th, 1987-88:  3rd, 1988-89: 5th); Bryant accomplished the same feat only once (1999-00: 10th). In terms of D-Ratings, Jordan finished in the top ten during one season (1987-88: 6th) with Bryant never accomplishing the same feat. Edge: Jordan.

For individual defensive awards during the first five seasons, the evidence is similarly conclusive. Bryant was named to two All-Defensive Teams (1999-00: 1st; 2000-01: 2nd). Jordan was selected for two All-Defensive Teams (1987-88: 1st; 1988-89: 1st). During that same time span, Jordan also earned his only Defensive Player of the Year Award (1987-88). Again, Michael is the clear-cut winner.

Considering the aforementioned evidence, it is clear that Hoop’s second claim is also not supported by the evidence.

In the end, Hoop’s two main claims that Bryant was the better defender both overall and early-on during their respective careers both wither under scrutiny. Although it seems to run against reason, Jordan’s defense is actually consistently underrated, despite being widely promoted as the GOAT.

While there is no inherent problem in arguing that one player is better than another, it is important to support such claims with some sort of empirical evidence then mere subjectivity. In failing to bolster their primary claims in regards to Bryant’s and Jordan’s defensive abilities, Hoop did a disservice to both itself and all critical basketball minds.