Basketball Free For All

Everyone ready for the home stretch?  We’ve got 3 weeks left before most fantasy playoffs begin in Week 22.  However, don’t view this as a time to coast as it could be more important than ever to pay attention to your teams.  Whether you’re fighting to make the playoffs or simply looking to make those final tweaks to bring home a championship, the moves you make now could potentially decide your entire seasons.  So FOCUS! 

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Sorry for the delay guys, but there was a football game yesterday and it happened to include my favorite team – the New Orleans Saints.  With their monumental win, there had to be an equally impressive celebration on my part.  Laissez le bon temps rouler!

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Before we get to the good stuff, I just wanted to mention that we’ve experienced some trouble on the website as hackers thought we were an enviable target.  We have to assume they were unhappy with Plonden’s advice, but regardless, we lost Deebo’s post/comments and I’ve had to redo this week’s preview (that’s why it was late).  Regardless, lesson to be learned – BACK UP everything you do somewhere!

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Week 11 was dominated by the Gilbert Arenas saga finally coming to a head, leaving owners with tough decisions to make about whether to hold or fold their Agent Zero hand. More on that dilemma and the fantasy fallout below. Beyond that, we saw Danny Granger and Troy Murphy return to the starting lineup for the Pacers, altering the fantasy landscape in Indy for the thousandth time this season. Along with the Golden State Warriors, the Pacers have been one of the most unpredictable fantasy teams so far this season.

Season Tracker

The 2009-10 season is 44 percent complete.

Week 12 Schedules

Four Games: DET, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, NOR, NYK, OKC, PHX, SAS, UTA, WAS

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, ORL, PHI, SAC, TOR

Two Games: NJN, POR

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 38%) For some inexplicable reason, Hinrich is still under the 40% ownership threshold despite being moved into the starting unit recently. In his eight starts this season, Hinrich averaged 12.1 points on .412/.769 percent shooting, 2.1 threes, 4.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Another key statistic to look at with Captain Kirk is his three point percentage, as the Bulls are desperate for outside shooting. As a reserve, he has shot a pedestrian .322 percent from downtown. As a starter, he has shot an impressive .459 from long range. Hinrich deserves pretty much universal roster consideration.

Erick Dampier (C – 37%) For the entire season, Dampier is putting up top-100 value while providing decent production for a third or fourth string center. His season averages are 8.0 points on .667/.582 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.4 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 turnovers. Dampier is a four category specialist (FG%, REB, BLK, TOs) while being a negative in the remaining five categories. He finally appears to be getting healthy again after having to deal with “wear-and-tear” of the left knee. Give Damp a go if you are looking for traditional big man stats and can handle his low scoring.

Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 27%) There has been widespread speculation that Gomes would be moved into Minnesota’s starting five sometime relatively soon. Regardless of whether or not he is starting, Ryan should get enough burn to provide fantasy value, especially for those looking for decent scoring off the waiver wire. Over the past two games, Gomes has averaged 15.0 points on .458/.875 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Gomes, while normally primarily simply a scorer, has shown flashes of stat-stuffing. Add Ryan if you have a dropable player to see if he can improve upon his recent strong play.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 21%) Some players just don’t get much respect, whether it be in real life or in fantasy basketball. Apparently, Rasual Butler is one of those players as his actual value and ownership percentage are definitely out of whack. Over the past two weeks, a period that saw Butler play in six games and average over 34 minutes per game, he posted top-50 value. During that period Rasual averaged 12.8 points on .467/.857 percent shooting, 2.5 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. Butler is a nice glue guy, providing a nice boost in threes on low turnovers while also providing decent blocks for a guard-eligible player.

Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 21%) Another player that has had a nice run over the past two weeks is Matt Barnes. You may recall Barnes being featured in last week’s preview article by my distinguished colleague, RedHopeful. Pretty much everything Oleh said then still stands. Over the past two weeks, Matt has averaged 13.4 points on .600/.778 percent shooting,1.1 threes, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.4 turnovers.

Rafer Alston (PG – 18%) Alston has to feel like the luckiest player in the NBA right now; it is an absolute certainty. Rafer was waived by the league’s worst team, the 3-33 New Jersey Nets, and signed with the 18-16 Miami Heat, who are currently the fifth best team in the East. In his first game in a Heat uniform (this season), he immediatley leap-frogged both Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers and joined the starting unit. Skip is in line for big minutes for the Heat and should be a good choice for threes, assists and steals if you can handle his offensive field goal percentage.

Ronny Turiaf (PF/C – 6%) It’s always a gamble recommending any Golden State Warrior these days but Turiaf feels like a very strong player for a couple of reasons. First, Anthony “Everyone’s Favorite Sleeper” Randolph recently went down with an ankle injury with no official timetable released yet. However, the injury appears to be relatively serious so we can assume he’ll miss all of this week’s games. Second, fellow big man Andris Biedrins has struggled getting up to speed since returning from his groin injury that sidelined him for most of the season. By default, Turiaf becomes one of the Warriors primary big men in the rotation and he should be an excellent source of blocks off the wire.

Watch List

J.J. Redick (PG/SG – 16%) With Vince Carter out with an injured shoulder, Redick immediately gets upgraded to watch list status. In Carter’s absence, Redick posted a strong line against the Atlanta Hawks dropping 17 points on .583 percent shooting, 3 threes, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. He has even been praised by Coach Stan Van Gundy recently for his play throughout the entire season. In fact, Redick has been really solid over the past four games seeing over 28 minutes per and averaging 16.5 points on .422/.895 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.5 turnovers.

Flip Murray (SG – 5%) If you are looking for cheap scoring off the waiver wire, there may not be a better option out there than Murray. RIght now, Flip is locked-in and playing excellent basketball for the Bobcats. Over the past week, Ronald is ranked well inside of the top fifty players averaging 17.3 points on .550/.933 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.5 turnovers in four games. His percentages are excellent, making his scoring and threes that much more valuable.

A.J. Price (PG/SG – 1%) A.J. officially proved that he belonged in this league after being selected in the second round of this season’s draft. Price set multiple career-highs against the Thunder on Saturday including minutes played, points scored and threes made. In that watershed game, Price posted 23 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 3 threes, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, o blocks and 2 turnovers. With the Pacers going nowhere this season and both Earl Watson and T.J. Ford playing themselves out of the rotation, Price is poised to carve himself a nice niche for the Pacers.

Deep League Special

Donte Greene (SG/SF – 4%) Greene’s window of opportunity is rapidly closing. With Kevin Martin due back sometime relatively soon, Greene will likely take a hit in touches, minutes and production. Thus, Donte should only be viewed as a short-term band-aid in deeper leagues. Over the past two weeks, he has put up top-100 value, making him an extremely valuable pickup in deep formats. In that same span, he averaged11.4 points on .489/1.00 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.0 turnovers.

Keyon Dooling (PG – 2%) At this point in his career, Dooling is a proven commodity, with a decade of experience in the Association. Playing for a relatively young and inconsistent team, he is a veteran presence on and off the court. While he is still rounding into game shape after having offseason hip surgery, Dooling finally showed signs of life recently when he dropped 21 points on the Hornets on Friday. His career per-36 minute stats are 13.3 points on .420/.798 percent shooting, 1.o threes, 2.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.1 turnovers and are a good guide if Dooling were to consistently get big minutes either due to injury of a teammate or simply due to the inconsistent play of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts.

Jon Brockman (SF/PF – 1%) If awesome nicknames were a fantasy category, the Brockness Monster would be a category carrier. But alas, we are left with having to rely on actual production on the basketball court. In that respect, Brockman’s toughness and football-like build have translated to him being an absolute beast on the boards and earning his fresh nickname (12.8 rebounds per-36 minutes). Recently, Brockman even got the starting nod against Denver pushing teammate and general fantasy disappointment Spencer Hawes to the bench. Grab the rebounding monster if you need help on the glass.

Cut List

Larry Hughes (SG/SF – 39%) The Knicks have won three of their last four games. Hughes has seen four consecutive DNP-CDs. Coincidence? I think not. Larry, welcome to Coach Mike D’Antoni’s dog house. Make yourself comfortable; you’re gonna be here a while.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 20%) It is hard to recommend a player for cutting who posted such nice fantasy value earlier in the season. However, barring a trade involving either Elton Brand or Samuel Dalembert, Speights is most likely going to be without fantasy value. If you want further proof that his run is (for now) over, check out his minute totals for his past four games: 6:22; 9:51; 12:01 and 11:11.

Luther Head (PG/SG – 12%) What a difference a week can make. Last week, he was on our Add List. This week he is on our Cut List. That is Luther Head’s career in a nutshell.

Buy Low

Caron Butler (SG/SF – 98%) With Agent Zero suspended indefinitely, Butler has moved up the food chain a notch in Washington. Butler’s best seasons of fantasy value have come with Arenas on the sidelines so there is hope to believe that he will resume his productive ways of the past (top five in per game value in 2007-08 when Arenas only played 13 games; top 30 in per game in 2008-09 when Arenas only played two games). At this point in the season, Butler has posted only top-75 value so it is a decent bet that he will have a much better second half of the season with Arenas most like done for the year.

Pau Gasol (PF/C – 99%) It may be hard to consider top ten player a buy low but that is exactly the case with Pau. Having missed a decent number of games this season with hamstring injuries on both legs, many owners are getting tired of the Lakers’ kid glove treatment of Gasol. When owners are frustrated or are struggling in the standings, you can often get a good deal for the right player. Throw out a solid second-round talent for Pau and see if the other owner bites. You may end up with one of the best big men in both fantasy and in real life.

Sell High

Samuel Dalembert (C – 64%) The problem with selling high is that nobody wants to do it because owning a hot player is so much fun. It’s why we play fantasy sports. However, with a guy like Sammie, if you can get enough value for him you have to pull the trigger. Over the past two weeks, Dally has been a top five talent. Stop and let that sink in. TOP FIVE. During that span, he has averaged 10.9 points on .667/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 3.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. He will never be able to keep this pace up for the rest of the season, especially not with Eddie Jordan waiting in the wings to screw everything up. SD is the qunitessential sell high right now.

Lamar Odom (SF/PF – 89%) With Pau out for at least one more game, your window to move Odom for maximum value is limited. Over the past week, Odom has been positively beastly, putting up a rugged 14.0 points on .548/.700 percent shooting, 0.8 threes, 15.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.0 turnover. Wow. In that span of four games, Odom has been a top ten player in per game value so throw out some trade offers and see if you can get a bona fide stud in return for Mr. Kardashian.

Mystery Man

Gilbert Arenas (PG – 73%) At only 73 percent ownership, the Great Arenas Exodus of 2010 has begun. Let’s face it, the chances of Gilbert playing again this season are slim. However, it is not so cut and dried as to whether he should be simply kicked to the curb; thus, Agent Zero is this week’s Mystery Man. In standard sized, non-keeper, head-to-head leagues Arenas can probably be safely dropped at this point. In roto leagues, where it is easier to carry dead weight, it probably makes sense to stick it out with Gil for a bit until we have more concrete timelines. In deeper formats, it makes more sense to hang on to Gibert if your team can afford to maintain a dead roster spot. Finally, in keeper and dynasty formats, dropping Arenas is not recommended until we hear exactly how harsh his final punsihment will be. Gilbert’s future with the Wizards and the League is truly a mystery at this point so weigh your options carefully before you decide to part ways with this dynamic guard.

Week Eight brought it’s fair share of drama and story lines on the court. On the injury front, a group of players eaither came back from injury early or announced their intention to return from injury early (see below). On the bizarre injury front, Dirk Nowitzki’s elbow had an appointment with five of Carl Landry’s teeth, with Dirk walking away with pieces of Carl’s teeth lodged in his elbow. That injury sounds excruciating for both players, who were both coincidentally having phenomenal seasons.Hopefully these guys make it back from injury quickly and resume their productive ways on the court.

HOUSEKEEPING

Basketball Free For All is looking for a few good men or women to join the crew. Specifically, we are looking for new writers to contribute on a weekly basis. If you read BFFA regularly you should know the skills required: knowledge of statistics, general basketball knowledge, fantasy basketball knowledge, quality writing skills, a willingness to question commonly held views and being awesome in general. If you are interested in inquiring further, shoot me an email at plonden [at] basketballfreeforall.com (obviously replacing [at] with @ before you send the email) and we’ll talk specifics. Also, we would obviously welcome others with unique skills (web skills, programming, statistics, marketing, business, whatever) who are interested in contributing to the Free For All so just inquire if you are interested.

WEEK NINE SCHEDULES

Two Games: CHA, MEM, NJN, NOR, PHI, TOR

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, LAL, MIA, MIL, MIN, NYK, OKC, ORL, POR, SAC, UTA, WAS

Four Games: CLE, HOU, IND, LAC, PHO, SAS

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Joel Przybilla (C – 39%) As a starter, Przybilla has averaged 5.7 points on .500/.625 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.5 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers. His offensive efficiency has nose-dived this season but his defense is just as good if not better than last season. His mass alone will keep him on the court this season so give Ghostface Przybilla a look for blocks and boards.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 26%) If one thing is certain in Philly, it is that Speights is the type of big man that excels in Eddie Jordan’s offensive system. Speights has picked up right where he left off since returning from his MCL injury. Over his past three games, Marreese has posted extremely solid averages of 19.7 points on .468/.682 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 7.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers, effectively crushing the previously burgeoning fantasy value of Samuel Dalembert, who played 14.7 minutes per game during the same span (although foul trouble played a role as well). Your window to sell high on Dally has been effectively closed until he gets moved or an injury to another Sixers big man occurs. The only downside is the Philadelphia only plays two games next week, although it is mitigated by the fact that Speights is an excellent pickup for the long-term.

C.J. Watson (PG/SG – 18%) Over the past two weeks, Watson has been a top fifty player, which has been extremely surprising. The odds are greatly stacked against C.J. being able to produce at such a high level for the remainder of the season, as the Warriors offense is run almost exclusively through Monta Ellis. For evidence, check out Watson’s usage percentage of a mere 14.0 percent compared to Ellis’ 29.4 usage percentage. As a result, Watson’s steals (1.5 per game this season and 2.0 per game over the past two weeks) make up the lion’s share of his fantasy value so give Watson an add if you are looking for a low turnover steal specialist.

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 13%) So far, Casspi has proven to be one of the early surprises of the 2009 NBA Draft for the Sacramento Kings. Based on his recent strong play, Omri has moved into the Kings’ starting lineup and looks to remain there at least until Kevin Martin returns from his wrist injury. For an idea of what his numbers would look like if given extended burn, check his per-36 minute averages of 17.3 points on .513/.577 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 5.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. As the season has progressed, Casspi has also improved each month from the free throw line, meaning his early struggles from the line were probably confidence-related and that we can expect continued improvement over time.

Jose Juan Barea (PG – 12%) In his fourth season in the NBA, Barea is posting career-highs across the board. Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle has noticed, increasing J.J.’s minutes largely at the expense of rookie guard Rodrigue Beaubois, who has the physical tools to carve out a nice role for himself in this league one day. Over the past four games, Barea has averaged 16.3 points on .553/.857 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers per game. Players that are putting up over fifteen points per game don’t wallow on the wire for very long so grab J.J. and hope his hot hand can continue.

WATCH LIST

Jerryd Bayless (PG – 9%) In true Arizonan fashion, Bayless dropped the best line of his short NBA career against the Phoenix Suns last Thursday, while doing his part to push the Suns winless streak on TNT to 17 games. On Thursday, Bayless put up 29 points in a game that ended up being decided by only two points. Without a doubt, he is a big part of why the short-handed Blazers upset the Suns. The following game, Bayless saw his minutes increased to over thirty minutes against Orlando. Most notably, Jerryd played more minutes than Steve Blake. In short, Bayless is on his way to becoming a big time scorer. For reference, check his per-36 minute stats of 21.7 points on .530/.764 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 3.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks and 1.9 turnovers. The one thing that jumps out is that Bayless has poor defensive statistics and subpar threes for a guard. This combination does not bode well for fantasy value, as elite guards usually need to do more than simply score in order to maintain their fantasy value.

Kyle Lowry (PG/SG – 8%) Lowry qualifies for the watch list this week based upon his monster line against the Mavericks on Friday even though he put up a stinker on Saturday. Lowry’s line was so impressive, it bears repeating here to marvel. With Landry out with the aforementioned dental injury, Lowry stepped up and dropped 26 points on .615/.778 percent shooting, 3 threes, 6 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 steals, 1 block and 2 turnovers. If only there were some way to predict when these random epic fantasy lines were going to occur? That, my friends, is the proverbial fantasy holy grail, the pursuit of which is a quixotic mission. Just remember to run to the wire and pickup Lowry if Aaron Brooks ever misses significant time.

Earl Watson (PG – 4%) Watson has moved ahead of T.J. Ford on the Pacers depth chart, stealing the starting point guard honors from Ford on Saturday night. With the Pacers struggling this season and missing franchise player, Danny Granger, lineup shakeups were to be expected. Monitor the situation closely over the next week and move Watson from the watch list to your roster should the upward trend on his minutes continue and he produces in his time on the floor. That second caveat was necessary after Earl’s 3 point, 5 rebound, 5 assist showing on Saturday night. Worst case scenario, the Pacers point guard spot will be a time share with Ford and Watson killing each other’s value.

Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 3%) Over the past few games Wright has finally started to turn his potential into production. Wright has been (incorrectly) picked as a breakout player over the last couple of years but has been derailed by a series of injuries. Recently, however, Wright has finally been putting everything together and has been seeing increasing minutes as a result. Over the past five games, Wright has played 27.8 minutes per game posting averages of 13.2 points on .583/1.00 percent shooting, 1.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.4 turnovers. Wright has been doing two things on the court that really make coaches happy, notably playing active defense and taking care of the ball.

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 26%) Captain Kirk has never been the most efficient scorer on the floor, but he certainly has never had such a terrible shooting season like he has this year. However, Hinrich’s early troubles this season were strongly related to his thumb injury from November and are thus not just a regular shooters’ slump. With the Bulls in desperate need of three point shooting (28th in three point percentage, 30th in both three pointer made and attempted), Hinrich should earn his keep from downtown, as he is a career .377 percent shooter from behind the arc. Don’t expect elite fantasy production from Kirk at this point but more outings similar to his game against the Hawks on Saturday night are on the horizon: 13 points on .556/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 0 turnovers.

C.J. Miles (SG/SF – 3%) Miles has had an up and down season thus far, which started terribly after tearing a ligament in his thumb. While he was out, rookie guard Wesley Matthews stepped up and played well for the Jazz causing speculation that Miles’ starting job was lost for good. However, Miles recently showed up and played an instrumental role for the Jazz in securing a win against the Bobcats on Saturday night. Miles dropped 20 points on .500/.500 percent shooting, 3 threes, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks and 1 turnover. Most notably, Miles topped the 30 minute mark for the first time this season with the undrafted Matthews only seeing seven minutes of game time despite getting the starting nod. With another performance or two like last night’s, Miles will be scooped off the wire in most leagues.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jared Jeffries (SG/SF – 3%) Like Chuck Hayes at the start of this season, Jeffries’ fantasy line is not fashionable but rather purely functional. JJ is a nice player that is essentially a defensive specialist, especially if you are punting points or are already dominant in points and can carry a negative contributer for scoring. As he is being showcased for potential trades, Jeffries has logged 33.3 minutes per game over the past two weeks and has averaged 2.3 steals and 1.3 blocks over the same span. Again, Jared should only be added in deep leagues that are looking to beef up the defensive categories.

Goran Dragic (PG/SG – 1%) Second year Slovenian point guard Goran Dragic looks to finally be getting comfortable playing basketball at the NBA level. In the past week, Dragic played the best basketball of his career against the Suns’ arch-nemesis (setting a career high 18 points against the team that drafted him), the San Antonio Spurs. Most impressively, Dragic played tough defense holding Spurs shooting guard Manu Ginobili to only seven points while also visibly frustrating him. With the Suns making a long home stand and being the only undefeated team at home in the NBA, Dragic should see increased burn during both close games and garbage time.

Serge Ibaka (C – 1%) Ibaka’s minutes are trending upward as this season progresses, as he has really impressed Coach Scott Brooks with his hustle when given playing time. Over the past couple of games, Ibaka has been given nearly 23 minutes per game and has responded with a decent fantasy line of 11 points on .786/0.00 percent shooting (on zero free throw attempts), 0.0 threes, 6.5 rebounds, 0.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.5 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Ibaka is largely specialized in the big man categories but could really pile up the blocks if given enough PT (2.6 blocks per 36 minutes). For deep dynasty leagues, Ibaka is a player that should probably be rostered at this point based upon his potential alone.

Jonathan Bender (SF/PF – 0%) Taken fifth overall out of high school in the 1999 NBA Draft, Bender has widely been recognized as one of the biggest draft busts in the NBA as knee injuries cut his career short. Nearly four years later, Bender is back and is playing for the New York Knicks. In his first game back in the NBA, Bender put up 9 points on .500/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, o steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. With zero percent ownership, Bender is available everywhere and should be monitored to see if he can flourish and make the cut for Coach Mike D’Antoni’s short rotation.

COMING BACK FROM INJURY

Lou Williams (PG/SG – 41%) He’s baaack and way ahead of schedule to boot. In his first game back he played over 23 minutes although admittedly showing his rust on the court. It was reported that Williams lost a few pounds while on his liquid diet (courtesy of Antawn Jamison). Look for Williams to return to the starting unit soon and get back on track with his breakout season. Based upon his early season play, he should not be on a single waiver wire.

Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 39%) TT is targeting a December 26th return to game action after fracturing his arm in a weightlifting accident. He is slated to return to practice today so pay attention to any updated timelines in the next couple of days.

Leandro Barbosa (PG/SG – 53%) Merry Christmas! Barbosa is planning on returning to game action on December 25th against the Clippers, nearly a full month after he severely sprained his ankle against the Raptors. Barbosa was finally starting to string a few solid games together when he went down so look for him to resume his strong play sometime in early January.

Yi Jianlian (PF – 21%) Out since early November with an MCL injury, Yi is slated to return to game action this Wednesday against Minnesota. His retun was delayed a couple of weeks after a vicious Sean Williams elbow during practice that required 50 stitches. Hopefully, the elbow was a blessing in disguise as it kept Jianlian sidelined a bit longer and made sure his MCL injury was fully healed to prevent further injury. Yi is cruising dangerously close to earning the “injury-prone” label, which is stigma that is not easily erased.

STAY THE COURSE

Tyson Chandler – (C – 46%) It’s hard to understate how disappointing Tyson has been this season. His season averages of 6.5 points on .490/.727 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 6.8 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. The jump in turnovers was expected, as he is no longer playing with the game’s best point guard, Chris Paul. However, no one was expecting such a dramatic drop-off in almost every other category. Recently, he pulled down twelve or more rebounds in two of his past three games. After being called out by his teammates for his lack of heart and lack of effort, look for Chandler to respond to the challenge and pickup his subpar play.

Courtney Lee (SG/SF – 53%) Widely touted as a breakout player or sleeper before this season started, New Jersey’s Courtney Lee has had an unusual season playing for the league’s worst team. Don’t give up on this young swingman and expect his season averages of 11.0 points on .381/.810 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.0 turnovers to increase. Lee’s shooting efficiency has suffered greatly from his move from a deep and talented team to a thin and awful team has caused opposing defenses to turn greater attention to forcing him to take bad shots. However, his low turnovers coupled with nice steal numbers have made Lee a decent options for teams that can handle his poor shooting.

Anthony Morrow (SG/SF – 62%) One of the league’s best pure shooters has suddenly lost his stroke. Since missing time for a funeral, A-Mo has gone absolutely frigid from the field. On the season, he is shooting a respectable .487 from the field,  a scorching .462 from downtown and an elite .900 from the free throw line. Morrow has serious .500/.400/.900 potential. Over the past six games, however, Anthony has shot a miserable .268/.292/1.00. Hey, at least his free throws are still falling. Being a pure shooter, Morrow will come around doing what he does best: hoisting ‘em at the rim.

CUT LIST

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 12%) Psycho T has proven a lot in his short NBA career. Most importantly, he has proven to the doubters that he will be an effective player at the NBA level one day. However, he has proven that he has not developed the go-to moves necessary to be an efficient scorer in the Association. These moves will come in time, as Hansbrough has proven to be a relentless worker during his tenure at North Carolina and with the Pacers. However, outside of teams that are punting field goal percentage, Tyler’s .372 percent shooting from the field on 8.2 attempts per game is too crippling for widespread roster consideration.

Anderson Varejao (PF/C – 47%) Sideshow Bob’s fantasy value tends to go the way of his defensive production. AV’s real life and fantasy value never has and never will be predicated on his offensive production. Instead, his value comes from boards, blocks and steals. Recently, his rebounds have stayed somewhat stable but his blocks and steals have dried up, crippling his worth to fantasy teams.

MYSTERY MAN

Mario Chalmers (PG – 61%) This week sees another first for the Preview post: the Mystery Man selection. And there is no better player to be the inaugural Mystery Man than Miami’s Mario Chalmers. Heading into this season after a surprisingly strong rookie season that saw Chalmers post top-75 per game value and nearly top-50 cumulative value, Chalmers has disappointed virtually across the board. A sophomore slump, perhaps? Not only has he failed to progress in multiple categories, but he has actually regressed as well, most notably in steals (from 2.0 last season to 1.5 this season), which accounted for the vast majority of Mario’s fantasy value last season. As a result, Chalmers has recently been demoted to the second unit and his play has even caused speculation that Mario is not the point guard of the future for Miami. The next few games and weeks will be pivotal for Chalmer’s fantasy value this season so this is definitely a very interesting situation to monitor. How this position battle between Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo plays out remains a mystery for now.

Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

Yet another week has passed and there were more changes to the fantasy landscape.  Chris Paul, Travis Outlaw, Josh Howard, Kelenna Azubuike and Marreese Speights went down this week.  Meanwhile, Pau Gasol, Eric Gordon, Courtney Lee and Troy Murphy continued their Mr. Invisible impressions.  At least Antwan Jamison and Rashard Lewis will be sure to return this week.  Also, can’t go without mentioning Brandon Jennings.  He is the reason why NBA League Pass just might be worth it as it’s highly unlikely most of us will even have an opportunity to watch Bucks’ games.

Week Four Schedules

Four Games: ATL, CHA, CLE, DET, HOU, IND, MIA, MIL, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, TOR

Three Games: BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, LAC, LAL, MEM, NJN, NYK, PHI, PHI, SAC, SAS, UTA, WAS

Two Games: MIN

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Will Bynum – He’s got a juicy four game schedule and both  Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton are not expected to play during the road trip.  Although Bynum’s numbers will likely take a hit when Rip gets back, he still might be worth owning as he’ll probably still get around 25 minutes a game and contribute decent scoring stats, assists and steals.

Toney Douglas – Over the last week, Toney has been the Knicks best guard.  It’s not saying much when you check the competition but it is very noteworthy.  D’Antoni’s grey is becoming more noticeable by the day and he’s tired of it.  Currently, he is re-evaluating the entire rotation and it is expected he’ll go with the youth.  I expect Toney to continue to get strong playing time and help fantasy owners in scoring stats, efficiency and steals.

Rudy Fernandez/Martell Webster – Funny how in one week Martell goes from the drop list to the add list.  Thanks Outlaw!  With Travis sidelined for at least 6 weeks, both of these guys will probably be worth owning.  Martell has a golden opportunity to really seize some time as it’s not expected the Blake/Miller/Roy trio to continue starting.  If Webster is able to start knocking his shot down with any regularity, he’ll put up very serviceable numbers across the board.  Rudy on the other hand is a perfect fit for the 6th man so that should continue.  However, his minutes are going to get a bump up so nab him if you really need help with 3’s and steals.

Chris Douglas-Roberts – He licked the swine flu in no time and has already logged 35 minutes in the Nets last game.  Pick him up if he’s available because the Nets are in dire need of his potential contributions.  He’ll be rewarding owners as soon as this coming week in points, efficiency, steals and rebounds.

Thabo Sefolosha – There is no denying it, he has a major role in the Thunder’s rotation because of his defensive abilities.  It’s a great sign that he’s still been getting a ton of time even though his shot has been way off of late (6-25 in the last 4 games).  While he’ll never be a volume shooter, he will help fantasy managers in 3’s, boards and defensive categories.

CUT LIST

DJ Augustin – Seems DJ is going through the motions of a second year player.  There were high hopes entering the season but he’s gotten off to a slow start and it appears Larry Brown won’t help him.  The other night, DJ took a shot off a pick and roll instead of passing to the open player and Coach promptly yanked him.  With Raja Bell attempting to play through his injuries and Flip Murray back, Augustin will be pressed to find consistent minutes.

Chris Duhon – Chris was never meant to be a fantasy relevant player, but that changed the day he put on a Knick uniform.  While he has the ability to put up some nice numbers on occasion, he hasn’t even been close thus far this season.  D’Antoni hasn’t kicked him to the curb yet, but I expect the next game or two to be a nice barometer for the next few months.  If he shows signs of snapping out of it, hang on to him as Coach will undoubtedly stick with him.  If not, send him packing.

Josh Howard - Well that didn’t take long.  Howard is already out indefinitely with rumors claiming he’ll be out until the end of December.  Considering the surgery was back in May and he’s still not right, I don’t suggest standard leagues to stick by this brittle body.

WATCH LIST

Darren Collison – Darren might be a nice plug in option for at least this upcoming week, but I’m not sold on him.  He struggled in his first start against the Hawks and scary as it sounds, Bobby Brown outplayed him.  It’s easy to envision him going from a bad game to average to bad to good to bad again.  Also, after this week, the Hornets will have two straight weeks of just 2 games so I assume there should be a better interim option out there at this time.

JJ Hickson – The Cavaliers moved him into the starting lineup to shake things up a bit after a disappointing start to the year.  Somewhat surprisingly, JJ has come through with flying colors.  In their last game against Utah, he put up 20 points, but more importantly, he received 38 minutes on the floor.  If this continues, then he’ll most likely be worthy of ownership in standard sized leagues.

Marcus Thornton - Last week, I had him in my Deep League Specials section, but this week he gets a bump up.  It’s no secret that the Hornets are struggling especially on the offensive end.  Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, Devin Brown and James Posey have looked awful too many times.  With Jeff Bower responsible for drafting Marcus, I believe he’ll get his share of chances at significant playing time rewarding owners with points, 3’s, FT% and steals.

STAY THE COURSE

Andris Biedrins – Horrid start for sure.  Combine that with a lousy back injury that seemed to be perpetuated by Nellie’s lack of sense, he’s giving fantasy owners absolutely nothing right now.  However, according to Ziguana,  he put up Round 5 value last season.  Considering the Warriors have no other viable center, he’ll jump back into the rotation once he’s deemed healthy.

John Salmons – He couldn’t have gotten off to a worst start – under 32% from the field thus far.  However, don’t make the mistake on either dropping him or selling low as he’s a proven efficient shooter.  Despite his struggles, he’s averaging 38 minutes a game so it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a valuable asset on your team.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Eddy Curry, Jordan Hill – I’ve got a strong feeling one of these two guys will be relevant as soon as this coming week.  David Lee at center seems worse than last year as his opposition is running layup drills around him.  With Darko Milicic apparently not a factor, one can expect D’Antoni to next look to these two guys.  Hill has shown flashes of late that he’s got some game but he still has a number of things to learn (as indicated by his foul rate).  Curry has been a laughing stock for such a long time but the Knicks are desperate.  He’s lost a ton of weight and might be serviceable until his next injury.

CJ Watson – In the world of Nellie, even fodder can turn into gold.  Not surprisingly, Stephen Curry has already landed on the end of the bench so CJ has been able to receive some fantastic minutes the last two games (27 and 34).  Subsequently, he has taken full advantage of it by playing very well and there is a decent chance it’ll continue in the short term.

Few issues divide the fantasy fanatics these days more decisively than the Elton Brand conundrum. As in the I drafted Elton Brand now what the hell do I do with him conundrum. Those fortunate enough to not have drafted Brand remain on the sidelines trying to determine whether or not to target EB as a suitable buy low candidate.

Newcomers to fantasy basketball may not understand all the man-love and hype surrounding Brand. Over the prior two season, Elton played a total of 37 games, posting averages of 14.6 points on .449/.710 percent shooting, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.3 turnovers. Solid, for sure, but nothing to pine over. However, many managers have a strong affinity to owning Brand after some monster seasons in the not so distant past (Andrei Kirilenko, anyone?).

Step into the time machine and take a look at Brand’s 2005-06 season, which is probably the finest of  his career, during which he played 79 games logging just under 40 minutes per. He posted 24.7 points on .527/.775 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 10.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.5 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. I’ll take two, please. Current Brand owners are hoping for a return to the dominant, first round stud of yesteryear. Although at this point, they’d definitely settle for third round production.

What’s not up for debate is the fact that Brand’s production has fallen off, and significantly so. This season, Brand’s averages are 10.1 points on .452/.833 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 5.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. These averages are good for 133rd in per game value according to Basketball Monster and 131st in per game value according to Ziguana. Pretty tough for a guy that was drafted 39th overall on average in Yahoo! leagues.

What is up for debate is the reason for Brand’s decreased production this season and his future outlook. There are two competing theories to explain his output this season, both of which are not mutually exclusive. Theory one is that Brand is old and his major injuries have permanently limited his ability to play basketball at the highest level. The second theory is that he simply isn’t fitting into Eddie Jordan’s Princeton offense. The two theories, however, do lead to different conclusions about the possible career trajectory for EB.

Theory One: Old and Injured

In basketball years, 30 means you qualify for AARP membership and can no longer relate to the youths. Your run isn’t necessarily over, but time is most definitely no longer on your side. There are some players that can play effectively late into life (John Stockton comes to mind), but big men with a history of serious injuries do not exactly fit the Stockton mold.

But what injuries did Brand suffer and how serious were they?

Brand has suffered four major injuries in his eleven seasons playing professional basketball. Over his first eight seasons, Brand missed a total of 50 games while suffering two moderate injuries. Brand’s first stint on the injured reserve list came in 2002-03 when he suffered a stress fracture in his left leg and missed 18 games. Brand’s second stint on the injured reserve list occurred the next season when he missed 13 of the Clippers’ first games with a hairline stress fracture of his right foot.

These two injuries early in Brand’s career were nothing too out of the ordinary for a big man playing physical basketball in the paint. However, everything would change for Brand in August 2007.

In the latest nasty injury blow for the Los Angeles Clippers, cornerstone forward Elton Brand ruptured his left Achilles tendon on Friday during his usual daily workout.

Brand, 28, is expected to undergo surgery next week and joins teammate Shaun Livingston on the list of long-term injury victims for the Clippers. Achilles tendon injuries typically sideline NBA players for at least a year, which would theoretically threaten Brand’s availability for all of the 2007-08 season.

Source: ESPN

Rupturing the Achilles tendon is a devastating injury and can sap the explosiveness of an athlete, potentially permanently. There is not even consensus on the best treatment for a ruptured Achilles. This type of injury is so devastating that there is even an online community dedicated to bringing together people who are recovering from a ruptured Achilles. The result for Brand was a disappointing 2007-08 campaign in which he only played in eight, mediocre games. If you stashed EB on your bench for most of the 2007-08 season, you probably lost. My condolences.

After a frustrating 2007-08 season, Brand bailed on the Clippers for greener pastures playing in Philadelphia. He was the marquee free agent signing of the summer of 2008, inking a five year, $80 million dollar deal. At the time, the Brand signing was widely seen as the piece that would push the Sixers from pretenders to contenders. Unfortunately for Elton, fate had other plans for him last season.

After a less than perfect union between Brand and the Sixers early on, the major injury bug would strike again. This time, Brand suffered a dislocated shoulder while committing a foul against the Bucks’ rookie forward out of UCLA, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. After missing 16 games, Brand returned for a handful of games before re-aggravating his injured shoulder. This time, he opted for season-ending surgery on his right shoulder.

That brings us to the current-day Elton Brand.

With these recent injuries, both have the potential to impact Brand’s ability to play basketball at the level at which he played in the 2005-06 season. Although there have been no reports confirming this fact (and why would the team choose to release this information anyways?), Brand’s range of motion and ability to hit mid range jumpers could be affected by his shoulder injuries last season. Elton is right-handed and his dislocated shoulder was his right shoulder. This would expect us to see lower shooting efficiency (check) and less rebounds (check). Circumstantial evidence seems to support the idea that Brand’s shoulder injury has left him with a  limited range of motion, but we can’t know for sure.

As far as the Achilles rupture, Brand’s tendon should be similarly as strong as it was prior to injury while the risk of re-rupture should be almost non-existant.

Mendelbaum and colleagues showed that those undergoing direct repair lost only 2.6% of their strength when undergoing isokinetic testing and that 92% of athletes were able to return to their respective sports at a similar level at 6 months postoperatively.

Source: Medscape.com

However, there is a problem. The size of Brand’s calf muscle is noticeably smaller since the injury. Apparently, he suffered a lot of muscle atrophy which he hasn’t as yet been able to fully regain. A comparison could be made to Dominique Wilkins who suffered through an identical injury – Achilles tear and differently sized calf muscle.  He went on to make a successful comeback earning two more All-star appearances.

What differentiates Brand from ‘nique is that he’s never relied on fantastic athleticism.  Once Wilkins was able to rehab his tendon extremely well, he was able to showcase his talents (or almost all of it) again.  On the other hand, for Brand, his game has been centered more around power. It is quite conceivable that the missing strength in Brand’s calf is having some influence on his game. In reading the aforementioned article, Brand finishes it by saying that “it’s still coming.” This obviously is an admittance he’s not able to do the same stuff he was prior to the Achilles rupture.

If you accept the conclusions of Theory One, EB’s possible career trajectory is average at best and pathetic at worst. Brand is destined to be an extremely highly paid role player, one that people will never believe a franchise was stupid enough to give an $80 million contract to. If you find yourself in this camp, do not attempt to buy low on Brand and if you already own him, cut your losses and sell him for whatever you can get. Every fantasy league has a Brand optimist or two.

Theory Two: System/Coach

According to this viewpoint, Brand’s pitiful production this season is more a result of poor coaching and a mismatch between player and system. Under this theory, Eddie Jordan and his motion offense are the antagonists and Brand is simply caught in the crossfire. There are a few variations on this general theory but the basic themes remain the same.

The first variation is that Coach Jordan is not getting Brand the shots he wants, where he wants them while playing him limited minutes. It seems plausible at first, especially if you’ve watched some of Philadelphia’s games this season. But if you look at the shot selection data from Brand’s vintage season, 2005-06, and compare it to the current season, some remarkable similarities emerge.

If you look at the percentage of attempts of different types of shots, you see that Brand is taking different types of shots at about the same rate now as in 2005-06. In his vintage season, 70 percent of EB’s shots were jump shots, versus 71 percent now. The similarity between percentage of shot attempts holds true for close (24 percent versus 23 percent now), dunks (4 percent versus 6 percent now) and tips (2 percent versus 0 percent now). In 2005-06, 30 percent of Brand’s attempts were from close range versus 29 percent now. Thus, the shot selection data from 82 Games does not support the claim of vastly different shot selection between Brand’s vintage seasons and now.

Looking more closely at the data, a couple of differences emerge. Brand v2009 had more of his shots blocked than Brand v2005, which actually provides mild support for Theory One. However, the truly interesting numbers are the assisted percentage number. This reflects the percentage of shot attempts that were setup by EB’s teammates. Across the board, these numbers are down in the current season meaning Brand has more responsibility to create his own shot. If you read between the lines, you come to the conclusion that EB might be struggling with having to create his own shots without a pure point guard on the roster.

Moreover, isn’t it curious that Brand is easily seeing the lowest minutes he’s ever had in his career (a little over 27)?  It’s especially confusing when you consider how much better the team performs when he is ON the floor. This, supports the idea that Brand’s struggles are related to the system and minutes that Coach Jordan has employed in the early goings this season.

The second variation is that Eddie Jordan is playing two post players (Brand along with either Samuel Dalembert or Marreese Speights) when the basics of the Princeton offense dictate it should be only one. Currently, Brand has logged the majority of his minutes at the four. This variation insists that Brand is being utilized ineffectively and that sliding him to the five where he can play closer to the basket where he can work on the low block. There may be some that point to the 82 Games stats by position. However, it must be pointed out that this data is based upon a very small sample size (around 10 total minutes of Brand at C). Take with large doses of salt.

If you buy either of these variations of Theory Two, Brand’s possible career trajectory is much rosier. The solution to the Elton Brand conundrum is simply adjust the offensive scheme or give Eddie the boot. Installing a system more suitable to the 80 million dollar man would correct a lot of the problems with Brand this season. If you fall into this camp and do not buy Theory One, Brand is a serious buy low candidate (depending upon your outlook for Jordan figuring it out or getting the axe).

Conclusion

Depending on which theory you buy into, last season’s marquee offseason signing, Elton Brand, ranges from a decent signing who has had a rough start in the City of Brotherly Love to a mediocre player with an absolute albatross of a contract. With such a large contract and these being tough economic times and all, Brand’s huge contract means he is most likely staying put for better or worse.

In the end, no one except maybe Elton Brand himself really knows whether Theory One or Theory Two is true. We each have the burden of examining the facts and interpreting them based upon our own personal observations. In the end, the onus is on each fantasy manager to come to his own conclusions for the reasons for Brand’s disappointing play and his possible career trajectory.

As a result of his disappointing play, Brand is catching lots of flack for his paycheck versus his production. Really, the blame for this unfortunate situation falls squarely on the Sixers front office for giving him so much money after a devastating Achilles injury and without seeing him play at a high level for a sustained period. For this reason, Brand should not be remembered for his Achilles but rather for his role as Atlas, destined to carry the load of the Philly faithful or to be crushed trying.

As expected, week one was full of surprises and story lines with some of the League’s young players making serious noise. Denver’s Carmelo Anthony is off to an head start in the battle to secure this season’s scoring title, averaging 35.5 points in his first two games. New York’s Danilo Gallinari is proving why he deserved to be a lottery pick (and sleeper) draining a whopping five treys per in his first two games. Milwaukee’s Brandon Jennings put everyone on notice with his near triple double NBA debut (17 points, 9 rebounds, 9 assists).

With one exciting week down and many more to go, it’s never too soon to start planning for next week.

Week Two Schedules

Four Games: ATL, BOS, DEN, DET, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, NOR, NYK, ORL, PHO, SAC, UTA, WAS

Three Games: CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, OKC, PHI, POR, TOR

Two Games: SAS

Cut List

Antonio McDyess — It looks like it is going to take a front court injury to make Dice fantasy relevant this season. Feel free to cut bait on Antonio for a hot hand. Decision that much easier with the Spurs the only team playing two games next week (against Utah and Portland on the road; both teams play much better at home).

Peja Stojakovic — Apparently people drafted Peja this season and are still holding on to him (60 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues). Look for cheap threes elsewhere.

Corey Maggette — Maggette is still owned in the majority of Yahoo! leagues, despite his terrible start. While still providing help in free throw percentage, Corey has been a drag on field goal percentage due to his relentless chucking. In case you need any more convincing, Maggette still plays for fantasy basketball’s most frustrating coach, Don Nelson.

Watch List / Add List

* Note: Percentages in parentheses denote ownership rates in Yahoo! leagues.

Larry Hughes (38%) — While certainly not known for his shot selection (well, actually he is, for all the wrong reasons), Hughes is certainly a scorer. Hughes 2009-10 debut against the Sixers was a nice showing, dropping 18 points on .636/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 steals, 1 block and 4 turnovers. Still not convinced? Hughes is in a contract year this season (see 2004-05 season).

Kelenna Azubuike (37%) — Azubuike has quietly put together the same line that put him in the top-100 last season, giving him a Basketball Monster rank of 65th in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 71st in per game value. Kelenna will get you scoring on good percentages and will have a few big games this season. He also gets you solid defensive production from a guard-eligible player, which is always a plus.

Marreese Speights (30%) — If any of the bigs in Philly have benefited from Eddie Jordan’s much-heralded Princeton offense, it appears to be Speights (BBM: 38th; Ziguana 41st). Averaging a 16.7 points on a scorching .750/.824 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 7.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers per game. Obviously his field goal percentage will come back to earth but his offensive aggresiveness is paying dividends for owners. Pick him up while he’s hot.

Anthony Parker (30%) — With Delonte West making his triumphant return to the Cavs’ rotation, Parker’s top-100 fantasy value now faces stiffer competition. Definitely a situation to monitor and both players could end up canceling each others’ value out in the long in the dreaded time-share situation.

Ty Lawson (25%) — Think any teams are regretting passing on Lawson yet? If not, they will be. Outside of deep leagues and keeper/dynasty formats, Lawson is another guy to keep on your radar. If veteran point guard Chauncey Billups misses any time, run to the waiver wire and pickup Ty.

Hakim Warrick (24%) –Warrick will most likely carve out a decent amount of minutes in the Bucks’ front court rotation. Whether starting or providing a spark off the bench, Warrick should provide end of the bench fantasy value. Worth a speculative add if you have dead weight on your roster.

Terrence Williams (19%) — Another guy to pickup for speculative purposes is Terrence Williams. Playing for the woeful New Jersey Nets, he is slated to get plenty of burn as the Nets look to maximize their ping-pong balls next summer.

Chris Douglas-Roberts (11%) — Similar to Williams, CDR is also due for some big burn this season and has a chance to muscle his way into the top-100 (currently ranked 115th in per game value according to BBM and 111th according to Ziguana). With Devin Harris out for a few games with a minor injury (surprise, surprise), CDR should get a slight boost of minutes in the short term.

Stay the Course

D.J. Augustin — Augustin’s season has been a bit of a roller coaster already. He (and the Bobcats in general) laid an egg in Boston for their season opener. He followed up with a nice scoring outing against the New York Knicks, which should be taken with a hearty dose of salt. With that being said, it is a little too early to discard D.J. to the trash heap just yet. Give him another week before making any rash decisions.

Chris Andersen — The Birdman has disappointed fantasy managers so far this season. He was drafted as a one category contributer and has provided below average returns on managers; investment (0.5 blocks per game versus 2.5 last season). The blocks will return, as Andersen’s role is to be a game changing defender in the paint for the Nuggets.

Injury Adds

Rafer Alston — As alluded to earlier, Harris is out for an unknown amount of time with a ticky-tack injury. Nothing new here. In his absence, Alston stepped up dropping 20 points on .727/.500 percent shooting, 3 threes, 2 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 steal, o blocks and 4 turnovers against the Wizards on Halloween. Skip to My Lou is a nice short term add for scoring, assists and threes while Harris nurses his wounds.

Buy Low

John Salmons — At this point in the season, there are probably a decent amount of fantasy managers that are nervous with Salmons’ performance. His .172 field goal percentage is probably at the top of their list of worries. However, keep in mind that Salmons is still getting adjusted to being the Man with Ben Gordon now playing in Detroit. It is important to note that the Bulls only two games so far this season have come against Boston and San Antonio, two of the league’s best defensive teams out there. Time to send out lowball offers to Salmons owners before he drops his signature lines.

Sell High

Tim Duncan — It is completely conceivable that Duncan has already had his best game of the season against the Chicago Bulls (28 points on .684/.500 percent shooting, 16 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 3 blocks and 2 turnovers). The Chicago game should be considered an aberration with his other two performances more likely the norm. As the Spurs clinch a playoff spot, Duncan’s minutes will only decrease and surprise DNP’s will make him harder and harder to move. Sell him now based on his monster second game if you can find a decent deal.