Basketball Free For All

It’s the final countdown!  Before I get into this week’s list, I’ve got to keep harping over these guys whose ownership is just over 40%:  Carlos Delfino, George Hill, Taj Gibson and Drew Gooden.  Hill looks to be primed to finish the year like a beast thanks to Tony Parker’s broken hand.  Gibson has excellent prospects as well as Joakim Noah isn’t even close to being a force in the paint anytime soon.  Lastly, Gooden and Delfino seem they’ll be able to continue their multi-cat ways.

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With yet another NBA trade deadline coming and going, a lot of excitement and hope was generated among the fans and media.  Some teams were looking for that final piece that makes them championship material.  Others simply were looking for a player that helps them get into the postseason.  Lastly, there were a few who look at this time of the year as the highlight of the season as their team struggles to even be competitive on a nightly basis so might as well position themselves for the upcoming lottery.  Whatever the reasons, all fans hoped their team would have made a trade or two that improved future prospects.  Question is, how often can these deadline deals really be coined successful?

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When one door closes, another one opens — or so the saying goes, anyways. With the trading period closed in the NBA, it is time to scour the waiver wire and see if the trades opened up any doors for your fantasy teams. As my distinguished colleague Oleh pointed out in his breakdown of the fantasy fallout from last week’s trades, there is plenty of value to be had as a result of trades, injuries and everything in between.

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Week 11 was dominated by the Gilbert Arenas saga finally coming to a head, leaving owners with tough decisions to make about whether to hold or fold their Agent Zero hand. More on that dilemma and the fantasy fallout below. Beyond that, we saw Danny Granger and Troy Murphy return to the starting lineup for the Pacers, altering the fantasy landscape in Indy for the thousandth time this season. Along with the Golden State Warriors, the Pacers have been one of the most unpredictable fantasy teams so far this season.

Season Tracker

The 2009-10 season is 44 percent complete.

Week 12 Schedules

Four Games: DET, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, NOR, NYK, OKC, PHX, SAS, UTA, WAS

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, ORL, PHI, SAC, TOR

Two Games: NJN, POR

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 38%) For some inexplicable reason, Hinrich is still under the 40% ownership threshold despite being moved into the starting unit recently. In his eight starts this season, Hinrich averaged 12.1 points on .412/.769 percent shooting, 2.1 threes, 4.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Another key statistic to look at with Captain Kirk is his three point percentage, as the Bulls are desperate for outside shooting. As a reserve, he has shot a pedestrian .322 percent from downtown. As a starter, he has shot an impressive .459 from long range. Hinrich deserves pretty much universal roster consideration.

Erick Dampier (C – 37%) For the entire season, Dampier is putting up top-100 value while providing decent production for a third or fourth string center. His season averages are 8.0 points on .667/.582 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.4 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 turnovers. Dampier is a four category specialist (FG%, REB, BLK, TOs) while being a negative in the remaining five categories. He finally appears to be getting healthy again after having to deal with “wear-and-tear” of the left knee. Give Damp a go if you are looking for traditional big man stats and can handle his low scoring.

Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 27%) There has been widespread speculation that Gomes would be moved into Minnesota’s starting five sometime relatively soon. Regardless of whether or not he is starting, Ryan should get enough burn to provide fantasy value, especially for those looking for decent scoring off the waiver wire. Over the past two games, Gomes has averaged 15.0 points on .458/.875 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Gomes, while normally primarily simply a scorer, has shown flashes of stat-stuffing. Add Ryan if you have a dropable player to see if he can improve upon his recent strong play.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 21%) Some players just don’t get much respect, whether it be in real life or in fantasy basketball. Apparently, Rasual Butler is one of those players as his actual value and ownership percentage are definitely out of whack. Over the past two weeks, a period that saw Butler play in six games and average over 34 minutes per game, he posted top-50 value. During that period Rasual averaged 12.8 points on .467/.857 percent shooting, 2.5 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. Butler is a nice glue guy, providing a nice boost in threes on low turnovers while also providing decent blocks for a guard-eligible player.

Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 21%) Another player that has had a nice run over the past two weeks is Matt Barnes. You may recall Barnes being featured in last week’s preview article by my distinguished colleague, RedHopeful. Pretty much everything Oleh said then still stands. Over the past two weeks, Matt has averaged 13.4 points on .600/.778 percent shooting,1.1 threes, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.4 turnovers.

Rafer Alston (PG – 18%) Alston has to feel like the luckiest player in the NBA right now; it is an absolute certainty. Rafer was waived by the league’s worst team, the 3-33 New Jersey Nets, and signed with the 18-16 Miami Heat, who are currently the fifth best team in the East. In his first game in a Heat uniform (this season), he immediatley leap-frogged both Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers and joined the starting unit. Skip is in line for big minutes for the Heat and should be a good choice for threes, assists and steals if you can handle his offensive field goal percentage.

Ronny Turiaf (PF/C – 6%) It’s always a gamble recommending any Golden State Warrior these days but Turiaf feels like a very strong player for a couple of reasons. First, Anthony “Everyone’s Favorite Sleeper” Randolph recently went down with an ankle injury with no official timetable released yet. However, the injury appears to be relatively serious so we can assume he’ll miss all of this week’s games. Second, fellow big man Andris Biedrins has struggled getting up to speed since returning from his groin injury that sidelined him for most of the season. By default, Turiaf becomes one of the Warriors primary big men in the rotation and he should be an excellent source of blocks off the wire.

Watch List

J.J. Redick (PG/SG – 16%) With Vince Carter out with an injured shoulder, Redick immediately gets upgraded to watch list status. In Carter’s absence, Redick posted a strong line against the Atlanta Hawks dropping 17 points on .583 percent shooting, 3 threes, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. He has even been praised by Coach Stan Van Gundy recently for his play throughout the entire season. In fact, Redick has been really solid over the past four games seeing over 28 minutes per and averaging 16.5 points on .422/.895 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.5 turnovers.

Flip Murray (SG – 5%) If you are looking for cheap scoring off the waiver wire, there may not be a better option out there than Murray. RIght now, Flip is locked-in and playing excellent basketball for the Bobcats. Over the past week, Ronald is ranked well inside of the top fifty players averaging 17.3 points on .550/.933 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.5 turnovers in four games. His percentages are excellent, making his scoring and threes that much more valuable.

A.J. Price (PG/SG – 1%) A.J. officially proved that he belonged in this league after being selected in the second round of this season’s draft. Price set multiple career-highs against the Thunder on Saturday including minutes played, points scored and threes made. In that watershed game, Price posted 23 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 3 threes, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, o blocks and 2 turnovers. With the Pacers going nowhere this season and both Earl Watson and T.J. Ford playing themselves out of the rotation, Price is poised to carve himself a nice niche for the Pacers.

Deep League Special

Donte Greene (SG/SF – 4%) Greene’s window of opportunity is rapidly closing. With Kevin Martin due back sometime relatively soon, Greene will likely take a hit in touches, minutes and production. Thus, Donte should only be viewed as a short-term band-aid in deeper leagues. Over the past two weeks, he has put up top-100 value, making him an extremely valuable pickup in deep formats. In that same span, he averaged11.4 points on .489/1.00 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.0 turnovers.

Keyon Dooling (PG – 2%) At this point in his career, Dooling is a proven commodity, with a decade of experience in the Association. Playing for a relatively young and inconsistent team, he is a veteran presence on and off the court. While he is still rounding into game shape after having offseason hip surgery, Dooling finally showed signs of life recently when he dropped 21 points on the Hornets on Friday. His career per-36 minute stats are 13.3 points on .420/.798 percent shooting, 1.o threes, 2.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.1 turnovers and are a good guide if Dooling were to consistently get big minutes either due to injury of a teammate or simply due to the inconsistent play of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts.

Jon Brockman (SF/PF – 1%) If awesome nicknames were a fantasy category, the Brockness Monster would be a category carrier. But alas, we are left with having to rely on actual production on the basketball court. In that respect, Brockman’s toughness and football-like build have translated to him being an absolute beast on the boards and earning his fresh nickname (12.8 rebounds per-36 minutes). Recently, Brockman even got the starting nod against Denver pushing teammate and general fantasy disappointment Spencer Hawes to the bench. Grab the rebounding monster if you need help on the glass.

Cut List

Larry Hughes (SG/SF – 39%) The Knicks have won three of their last four games. Hughes has seen four consecutive DNP-CDs. Coincidence? I think not. Larry, welcome to Coach Mike D’Antoni’s dog house. Make yourself comfortable; you’re gonna be here a while.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 20%) It is hard to recommend a player for cutting who posted such nice fantasy value earlier in the season. However, barring a trade involving either Elton Brand or Samuel Dalembert, Speights is most likely going to be without fantasy value. If you want further proof that his run is (for now) over, check out his minute totals for his past four games: 6:22; 9:51; 12:01 and 11:11.

Luther Head (PG/SG – 12%) What a difference a week can make. Last week, he was on our Add List. This week he is on our Cut List. That is Luther Head’s career in a nutshell.

Buy Low

Caron Butler (SG/SF – 98%) With Agent Zero suspended indefinitely, Butler has moved up the food chain a notch in Washington. Butler’s best seasons of fantasy value have come with Arenas on the sidelines so there is hope to believe that he will resume his productive ways of the past (top five in per game value in 2007-08 when Arenas only played 13 games; top 30 in per game in 2008-09 when Arenas only played two games). At this point in the season, Butler has posted only top-75 value so it is a decent bet that he will have a much better second half of the season with Arenas most like done for the year.

Pau Gasol (PF/C – 99%) It may be hard to consider top ten player a buy low but that is exactly the case with Pau. Having missed a decent number of games this season with hamstring injuries on both legs, many owners are getting tired of the Lakers’ kid glove treatment of Gasol. When owners are frustrated or are struggling in the standings, you can often get a good deal for the right player. Throw out a solid second-round talent for Pau and see if the other owner bites. You may end up with one of the best big men in both fantasy and in real life.

Sell High

Samuel Dalembert (C – 64%) The problem with selling high is that nobody wants to do it because owning a hot player is so much fun. It’s why we play fantasy sports. However, with a guy like Sammie, if you can get enough value for him you have to pull the trigger. Over the past two weeks, Dally has been a top five talent. Stop and let that sink in. TOP FIVE. During that span, he has averaged 10.9 points on .667/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 3.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. He will never be able to keep this pace up for the rest of the season, especially not with Eddie Jordan waiting in the wings to screw everything up. SD is the qunitessential sell high right now.

Lamar Odom (SF/PF – 89%) With Pau out for at least one more game, your window to move Odom for maximum value is limited. Over the past week, Odom has been positively beastly, putting up a rugged 14.0 points on .548/.700 percent shooting, 0.8 threes, 15.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.0 turnover. Wow. In that span of four games, Odom has been a top ten player in per game value so throw out some trade offers and see if you can get a bona fide stud in return for Mr. Kardashian.

Mystery Man

Gilbert Arenas (PG – 73%) At only 73 percent ownership, the Great Arenas Exodus of 2010 has begun. Let’s face it, the chances of Gilbert playing again this season are slim. However, it is not so cut and dried as to whether he should be simply kicked to the curb; thus, Agent Zero is this week’s Mystery Man. In standard sized, non-keeper, head-to-head leagues Arenas can probably be safely dropped at this point. In roto leagues, where it is easier to carry dead weight, it probably makes sense to stick it out with Gil for a bit until we have more concrete timelines. In deeper formats, it makes more sense to hang on to Gibert if your team can afford to maintain a dead roster spot. Finally, in keeper and dynasty formats, dropping Arenas is not recommended until we hear exactly how harsh his final punsihment will be. Gilbert’s future with the Wizards and the League is truly a mystery at this point so weigh your options carefully before you decide to part ways with this dynamic guard.

Did we really have to learn it’s not cool pulling a gun on a teammate in the locker room?  I’m looking at you Gilbert Arenas!  There are rumors flying around that he’s going to miss serious time as it could be measured in months.  Consequently, it’s no surprise this week’s mystery man has to be Randy Foye.  He’s been a starter in the past so I’d assume Flip would be encouraged to go with him over any of Washington’s other point guards.

Week Eleven Schedules

Four Games: ATL, CHI, LAL, MEM, MIA, NJN, NOH, ORL, POR, UTA, WAS

Three Games:  BOS, CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, MIL, MIN, OKC, PHI, PHO, SAC, SAS, TOR

Two Games:  NYK

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 16%) – Matt’s stock has recently gone up since he was moved into the starting lineup.  Stan Van Gundy has been singing his praises too so expect him to stick in place of Mickael Pietrus.  In his 3 recent starts, he’s averaged 16.7 points, 1.7 3ptm, 7 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.3 TO’s.  He’ll also contribute the occasional defensive numbers.

Omri Casspi (SG/SF/PF – 33%) – Casper has just been on a tear lately so I’m shocked he’s not more universally owned.  In the last 13 games, he’s averaged a very cool 16.2 points, 1.8 3ptm, 5,8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, .6 steals and .4 blocks.  With over 32 minutes a game, he’s also been very efficient shooting 48% from the field and 77.4% from the charity stripe with only 1.4 turnovers.  I don’t see a return of Kevin Martin ending his value either as Westy is likely to move him over to SF.

Nick Collison (PF/C – 5%) – If you don’t mind anti-glamor types, give Nick a look.  Since returning from injury, his minutes have been steadily trending upwards and it appears Scott Brooks is most comfortable with him over both Nenad Krstic and Serge Ibaka.  In the last 5 games, he’s averaged 9.4 points (on 70.8 FG% and 68.4 FT%), 7 rebounds and 1 block.

Luther Head (PG/SG – 9%) – Here we go recommending another Pacer again but you gotta figure we’re due to get one right!  Actually, there is a good chance he’ll revert back into some sort of inconsistent mess considering his track record, but why not ride him now?  He’s easily been the most productive wing player for O’Brien so look for him to continue to get minutes.  The last 3 games as a starter he’s averaged 23 points, 2.3 3ptm, 4.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 steals.

Juwan Howard (SF/PF/C – 10%) – Here is what I like to call a “process of elimination” player.  Simply put, the Blazers best big man is this 36 year old who was drafted by the Washington Bullets.  The last 6 games, Juwan has averaged 9 points (on 57.4 FG%), 7.8 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 1.8 TO’s.  Considering LaMarcus Aldridge is hobbled with an ankle sprain, Howard is well worth a spin during this upcoming 4 game week.

CUT LIST

Mario Chalmers (PG – 49%) – Sadly, it’s about time for owners to let Mario go as one of my favorite preseason targets has been an enormous letdown.  Most likely, his fate is about to be sealed as Miami is probably going to guarantee Carlos Arroyo’s contract for the rest of the season.  When that happens, Mario’s role as a reserve (6.3 points, .4 3ptm, 1.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists) looks to be close to permanent.

TJ Ford (PG – 43%) – Seems like Ford has finally hit rock bottom as he’s recently been demoted to 3rd string point guard for the lowly Indiana Pacers.  What’s worse is he claims in the linked article that he didn’t get an explanation for being removed from the rotation.  Uh, TJ, quit playing dumb.

Peja Stojakovic (SG/SF – 67%) – Since Christmas, Peja has fallen off a cliff (averaging under 5 points a game, 1 three, 3 rebounds and 1 assist in 4 games).  In addition to the obvious slump, his back has started to act up on him again.  Considering, he’s had chronic problems the last few years, don’t hold your breath he’ll be right as rain after a few days of rest.

WATCH LIST

DeJuan Blair (SF/PF/C – 14%) – Blair’s adjustment as a starter hasn’t gone as smoothly as most of us had hoped as his minutes and numbers have been up and down since being handed this juicy role back on December 21.  His uninspiring averages of 7.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, .6 steals and .7 blocks over that period have resulted in Theo Ratliff getting the start in Sunday’s game against Toronto.  However, it’s hard to throw in the towel on a kid who usually doesn’t need much time to put a fantasy worthy line.

Andray Blatche (PF/C – 33%) – “Seven Day Dray” started the season off with a bang thanks to an Antawn Jamison shoulder injury.  However, as expected, he faded back into obscurity when he became a role player again.  With the Wizards lackluster play, Flip gave Blatche a start in their last game against the Spurs.  Coach is looking for an increase in paint production, but we all know Dray loves to shoot too many jumpers.  If he does heed Flip’s wishes, he could be worth owning again.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 15%) – Managers looking for an interim boost in scoring should look Rasual’s way.  Over the last ten games, he’s averaged 14.5 points, 2.4 3ptm, 3.2 rebounds and 1 block on excellent shooting (48.7 FG% and 91.7 FT%).  More importantly, he has replaced Al Thornton as the team’s starting small forward.  Just remember to temper your expectations as Butler likes to disappear and Blake Griffin’s return is getting nearer.

Quentin Richardson (SG/SF – 18%) – Q has got to be this season’s Jekyll/Mr. Hyde winner.  Case in point, just glance at the boxscore of his last two games.  Against the Spurs, 0 points and 3 rebounds.  Against the Bobcats, 20 points (6 3ptm) and 5 rebounds.  I literally prefer to just watch Qrich, but he could be worth a look for a team either feeling lucky or in dire need of 3ptm.

STAY THE COURSE

Courtney Lee (SG/SF – 50%) – Mr. Lee’s averages have been quite pedestrian thus far this season:  11.5 points, .6 3ptm, 3.7 rebounds and 1.9 assists.  Lately, his numbers have shown a bit of a decline which is most likely due to the fact that Yi Jianlian and Chris Douglas-Roberts are back playing big minutes to go alongside Devin Harris and Brook Lopez.  Despite this, I still recommend you hang onto him.  That perimeter shooting is bound to improve as he’s always been considered an excellent shot.  Moreover, he provides a significant amount of steals (1.7) to go along with very low turnvoers (1.1).

Charlie Villanueva (SF/PF – 84%) – Without a doubt, there is cause for alarm as his recent 6 game averages are woeful:  4.7 points, .3 3ptm, 3.5 rebounds and .5 blocks.  As the roster is finally getting healthy around him, Kuester’s manlove for Jonas Jerebko and his plantar fasciitis are all attempting to stand in his way of solid production.  However, things will turn around as he sat down with the Coach and figured out what he needed to do.  The outcome?  He played 28 minutes in the Piston’s last game against the Bulls while Jerebko 19.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Glen Davis (PF/C – 4%) – With Kevin Garnett out for a minimum of 10 days, the Celtic’s need Big Baby.  Rasheed Wallace isn’t accustomed to playing huge starter’s minutes and Kendrick Perkins usually struggles with foul trouble.  Expect at least a few games of solid points, boards and steals in the near future.

Wayne Ellington (PG/SG – 1%) – Are we ready to proclaim it Wayne’s World?  No, but his role is undeniably increasing in Minnesota as evidenced by the uptick in his minutes recently.  Considering how the team is in need of a solid perimeter threat, Coach Rambis must be excited this rookie is finally putting things together.  If you’re in a deep league and would like to bump up the scoring categories, give him a try.  He set a new season high of 16 points and 3 3ptm in their last game.

MYSTERY MAN

Randy Foye (PG/SG – 31%) – As I mentioned earlier, Gilbert Arenas supposedly pulled the knucklehead move of the year by playing with a gun in the Wizard’s locker room.  Consequently, stiff penalties await and he could leave a mammoth hole for a lengthy period of time.  Enter Randy.  Even though Flip has shown a preference to Earl Boykins certain games, it is highly unlikely the 5 foot 5 inch guard could handle the starting duties.  Meanwhile Randy has played huge minutes at the point in Minnesota providing solid points, 3ptm, assists and steals.  Be ready to pounce if any new developments regarding any suspensions crop up.

Week Eight brought it’s fair share of drama and story lines on the court. On the injury front, a group of players eaither came back from injury early or announced their intention to return from injury early (see below). On the bizarre injury front, Dirk Nowitzki’s elbow had an appointment with five of Carl Landry’s teeth, with Dirk walking away with pieces of Carl’s teeth lodged in his elbow. That injury sounds excruciating for both players, who were both coincidentally having phenomenal seasons.Hopefully these guys make it back from injury quickly and resume their productive ways on the court.

HOUSEKEEPING

Basketball Free For All is looking for a few good men or women to join the crew. Specifically, we are looking for new writers to contribute on a weekly basis. If you read BFFA regularly you should know the skills required: knowledge of statistics, general basketball knowledge, fantasy basketball knowledge, quality writing skills, a willingness to question commonly held views and being awesome in general. If you are interested in inquiring further, shoot me an email at plonden [at] basketballfreeforall.com (obviously replacing [at] with @ before you send the email) and we’ll talk specifics. Also, we would obviously welcome others with unique skills (web skills, programming, statistics, marketing, business, whatever) who are interested in contributing to the Free For All so just inquire if you are interested.

WEEK NINE SCHEDULES

Two Games: CHA, MEM, NJN, NOR, PHI, TOR

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, LAL, MIA, MIL, MIN, NYK, OKC, ORL, POR, SAC, UTA, WAS

Four Games: CLE, HOU, IND, LAC, PHO, SAS

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Joel Przybilla (C – 39%) As a starter, Przybilla has averaged 5.7 points on .500/.625 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.5 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers. His offensive efficiency has nose-dived this season but his defense is just as good if not better than last season. His mass alone will keep him on the court this season so give Ghostface Przybilla a look for blocks and boards.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 26%) If one thing is certain in Philly, it is that Speights is the type of big man that excels in Eddie Jordan’s offensive system. Speights has picked up right where he left off since returning from his MCL injury. Over his past three games, Marreese has posted extremely solid averages of 19.7 points on .468/.682 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 7.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers, effectively crushing the previously burgeoning fantasy value of Samuel Dalembert, who played 14.7 minutes per game during the same span (although foul trouble played a role as well). Your window to sell high on Dally has been effectively closed until he gets moved or an injury to another Sixers big man occurs. The only downside is the Philadelphia only plays two games next week, although it is mitigated by the fact that Speights is an excellent pickup for the long-term.

C.J. Watson (PG/SG – 18%) Over the past two weeks, Watson has been a top fifty player, which has been extremely surprising. The odds are greatly stacked against C.J. being able to produce at such a high level for the remainder of the season, as the Warriors offense is run almost exclusively through Monta Ellis. For evidence, check out Watson’s usage percentage of a mere 14.0 percent compared to Ellis’ 29.4 usage percentage. As a result, Watson’s steals (1.5 per game this season and 2.0 per game over the past two weeks) make up the lion’s share of his fantasy value so give Watson an add if you are looking for a low turnover steal specialist.

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 13%) So far, Casspi has proven to be one of the early surprises of the 2009 NBA Draft for the Sacramento Kings. Based on his recent strong play, Omri has moved into the Kings’ starting lineup and looks to remain there at least until Kevin Martin returns from his wrist injury. For an idea of what his numbers would look like if given extended burn, check his per-36 minute averages of 17.3 points on .513/.577 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 5.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. As the season has progressed, Casspi has also improved each month from the free throw line, meaning his early struggles from the line were probably confidence-related and that we can expect continued improvement over time.

Jose Juan Barea (PG – 12%) In his fourth season in the NBA, Barea is posting career-highs across the board. Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle has noticed, increasing J.J.’s minutes largely at the expense of rookie guard Rodrigue Beaubois, who has the physical tools to carve out a nice role for himself in this league one day. Over the past four games, Barea has averaged 16.3 points on .553/.857 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers per game. Players that are putting up over fifteen points per game don’t wallow on the wire for very long so grab J.J. and hope his hot hand can continue.

WATCH LIST

Jerryd Bayless (PG – 9%) In true Arizonan fashion, Bayless dropped the best line of his short NBA career against the Phoenix Suns last Thursday, while doing his part to push the Suns winless streak on TNT to 17 games. On Thursday, Bayless put up 29 points in a game that ended up being decided by only two points. Without a doubt, he is a big part of why the short-handed Blazers upset the Suns. The following game, Bayless saw his minutes increased to over thirty minutes against Orlando. Most notably, Jerryd played more minutes than Steve Blake. In short, Bayless is on his way to becoming a big time scorer. For reference, check his per-36 minute stats of 21.7 points on .530/.764 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 3.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks and 1.9 turnovers. The one thing that jumps out is that Bayless has poor defensive statistics and subpar threes for a guard. This combination does not bode well for fantasy value, as elite guards usually need to do more than simply score in order to maintain their fantasy value.

Kyle Lowry (PG/SG – 8%) Lowry qualifies for the watch list this week based upon his monster line against the Mavericks on Friday even though he put up a stinker on Saturday. Lowry’s line was so impressive, it bears repeating here to marvel. With Landry out with the aforementioned dental injury, Lowry stepped up and dropped 26 points on .615/.778 percent shooting, 3 threes, 6 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 steals, 1 block and 2 turnovers. If only there were some way to predict when these random epic fantasy lines were going to occur? That, my friends, is the proverbial fantasy holy grail, the pursuit of which is a quixotic mission. Just remember to run to the wire and pickup Lowry if Aaron Brooks ever misses significant time.

Earl Watson (PG – 4%) Watson has moved ahead of T.J. Ford on the Pacers depth chart, stealing the starting point guard honors from Ford on Saturday night. With the Pacers struggling this season and missing franchise player, Danny Granger, lineup shakeups were to be expected. Monitor the situation closely over the next week and move Watson from the watch list to your roster should the upward trend on his minutes continue and he produces in his time on the floor. That second caveat was necessary after Earl’s 3 point, 5 rebound, 5 assist showing on Saturday night. Worst case scenario, the Pacers point guard spot will be a time share with Ford and Watson killing each other’s value.

Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 3%) Over the past few games Wright has finally started to turn his potential into production. Wright has been (incorrectly) picked as a breakout player over the last couple of years but has been derailed by a series of injuries. Recently, however, Wright has finally been putting everything together and has been seeing increasing minutes as a result. Over the past five games, Wright has played 27.8 minutes per game posting averages of 13.2 points on .583/1.00 percent shooting, 1.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.4 turnovers. Wright has been doing two things on the court that really make coaches happy, notably playing active defense and taking care of the ball.

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 26%) Captain Kirk has never been the most efficient scorer on the floor, but he certainly has never had such a terrible shooting season like he has this year. However, Hinrich’s early troubles this season were strongly related to his thumb injury from November and are thus not just a regular shooters’ slump. With the Bulls in desperate need of three point shooting (28th in three point percentage, 30th in both three pointer made and attempted), Hinrich should earn his keep from downtown, as he is a career .377 percent shooter from behind the arc. Don’t expect elite fantasy production from Kirk at this point but more outings similar to his game against the Hawks on Saturday night are on the horizon: 13 points on .556/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 0 turnovers.

C.J. Miles (SG/SF – 3%) Miles has had an up and down season thus far, which started terribly after tearing a ligament in his thumb. While he was out, rookie guard Wesley Matthews stepped up and played well for the Jazz causing speculation that Miles’ starting job was lost for good. However, Miles recently showed up and played an instrumental role for the Jazz in securing a win against the Bobcats on Saturday night. Miles dropped 20 points on .500/.500 percent shooting, 3 threes, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks and 1 turnover. Most notably, Miles topped the 30 minute mark for the first time this season with the undrafted Matthews only seeing seven minutes of game time despite getting the starting nod. With another performance or two like last night’s, Miles will be scooped off the wire in most leagues.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jared Jeffries (SG/SF – 3%) Like Chuck Hayes at the start of this season, Jeffries’ fantasy line is not fashionable but rather purely functional. JJ is a nice player that is essentially a defensive specialist, especially if you are punting points or are already dominant in points and can carry a negative contributer for scoring. As he is being showcased for potential trades, Jeffries has logged 33.3 minutes per game over the past two weeks and has averaged 2.3 steals and 1.3 blocks over the same span. Again, Jared should only be added in deep leagues that are looking to beef up the defensive categories.

Goran Dragic (PG/SG – 1%) Second year Slovenian point guard Goran Dragic looks to finally be getting comfortable playing basketball at the NBA level. In the past week, Dragic played the best basketball of his career against the Suns’ arch-nemesis (setting a career high 18 points against the team that drafted him), the San Antonio Spurs. Most impressively, Dragic played tough defense holding Spurs shooting guard Manu Ginobili to only seven points while also visibly frustrating him. With the Suns making a long home stand and being the only undefeated team at home in the NBA, Dragic should see increased burn during both close games and garbage time.

Serge Ibaka (C – 1%) Ibaka’s minutes are trending upward as this season progresses, as he has really impressed Coach Scott Brooks with his hustle when given playing time. Over the past couple of games, Ibaka has been given nearly 23 minutes per game and has responded with a decent fantasy line of 11 points on .786/0.00 percent shooting (on zero free throw attempts), 0.0 threes, 6.5 rebounds, 0.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.5 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Ibaka is largely specialized in the big man categories but could really pile up the blocks if given enough PT (2.6 blocks per 36 minutes). For deep dynasty leagues, Ibaka is a player that should probably be rostered at this point based upon his potential alone.

Jonathan Bender (SF/PF – 0%) Taken fifth overall out of high school in the 1999 NBA Draft, Bender has widely been recognized as one of the biggest draft busts in the NBA as knee injuries cut his career short. Nearly four years later, Bender is back and is playing for the New York Knicks. In his first game back in the NBA, Bender put up 9 points on .500/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, o steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. With zero percent ownership, Bender is available everywhere and should be monitored to see if he can flourish and make the cut for Coach Mike D’Antoni’s short rotation.

COMING BACK FROM INJURY

Lou Williams (PG/SG – 41%) He’s baaack and way ahead of schedule to boot. In his first game back he played over 23 minutes although admittedly showing his rust on the court. It was reported that Williams lost a few pounds while on his liquid diet (courtesy of Antawn Jamison). Look for Williams to return to the starting unit soon and get back on track with his breakout season. Based upon his early season play, he should not be on a single waiver wire.

Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 39%) TT is targeting a December 26th return to game action after fracturing his arm in a weightlifting accident. He is slated to return to practice today so pay attention to any updated timelines in the next couple of days.

Leandro Barbosa (PG/SG – 53%) Merry Christmas! Barbosa is planning on returning to game action on December 25th against the Clippers, nearly a full month after he severely sprained his ankle against the Raptors. Barbosa was finally starting to string a few solid games together when he went down so look for him to resume his strong play sometime in early January.

Yi Jianlian (PF – 21%) Out since early November with an MCL injury, Yi is slated to return to game action this Wednesday against Minnesota. His retun was delayed a couple of weeks after a vicious Sean Williams elbow during practice that required 50 stitches. Hopefully, the elbow was a blessing in disguise as it kept Jianlian sidelined a bit longer and made sure his MCL injury was fully healed to prevent further injury. Yi is cruising dangerously close to earning the “injury-prone” label, which is stigma that is not easily erased.

STAY THE COURSE

Tyson Chandler – (C – 46%) It’s hard to understate how disappointing Tyson has been this season. His season averages of 6.5 points on .490/.727 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 6.8 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. The jump in turnovers was expected, as he is no longer playing with the game’s best point guard, Chris Paul. However, no one was expecting such a dramatic drop-off in almost every other category. Recently, he pulled down twelve or more rebounds in two of his past three games. After being called out by his teammates for his lack of heart and lack of effort, look for Chandler to respond to the challenge and pickup his subpar play.

Courtney Lee (SG/SF – 53%) Widely touted as a breakout player or sleeper before this season started, New Jersey’s Courtney Lee has had an unusual season playing for the league’s worst team. Don’t give up on this young swingman and expect his season averages of 11.0 points on .381/.810 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.0 turnovers to increase. Lee’s shooting efficiency has suffered greatly from his move from a deep and talented team to a thin and awful team has caused opposing defenses to turn greater attention to forcing him to take bad shots. However, his low turnovers coupled with nice steal numbers have made Lee a decent options for teams that can handle his poor shooting.

Anthony Morrow (SG/SF – 62%) One of the league’s best pure shooters has suddenly lost his stroke. Since missing time for a funeral, A-Mo has gone absolutely frigid from the field. On the season, he is shooting a respectable .487 from the field,  a scorching .462 from downtown and an elite .900 from the free throw line. Morrow has serious .500/.400/.900 potential. Over the past six games, however, Anthony has shot a miserable .268/.292/1.00. Hey, at least his free throws are still falling. Being a pure shooter, Morrow will come around doing what he does best: hoisting ‘em at the rim.

CUT LIST

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 12%) Psycho T has proven a lot in his short NBA career. Most importantly, he has proven to the doubters that he will be an effective player at the NBA level one day. However, he has proven that he has not developed the go-to moves necessary to be an efficient scorer in the Association. These moves will come in time, as Hansbrough has proven to be a relentless worker during his tenure at North Carolina and with the Pacers. However, outside of teams that are punting field goal percentage, Tyler’s .372 percent shooting from the field on 8.2 attempts per game is too crippling for widespread roster consideration.

Anderson Varejao (PF/C – 47%) Sideshow Bob’s fantasy value tends to go the way of his defensive production. AV’s real life and fantasy value never has and never will be predicated on his offensive production. Instead, his value comes from boards, blocks and steals. Recently, his rebounds have stayed somewhat stable but his blocks and steals have dried up, crippling his worth to fantasy teams.

MYSTERY MAN

Mario Chalmers (PG – 61%) This week sees another first for the Preview post: the Mystery Man selection. And there is no better player to be the inaugural Mystery Man than Miami’s Mario Chalmers. Heading into this season after a surprisingly strong rookie season that saw Chalmers post top-75 per game value and nearly top-50 cumulative value, Chalmers has disappointed virtually across the board. A sophomore slump, perhaps? Not only has he failed to progress in multiple categories, but he has actually regressed as well, most notably in steals (from 2.0 last season to 1.5 this season), which accounted for the vast majority of Mario’s fantasy value last season. As a result, Chalmers has recently been demoted to the second unit and his play has even caused speculation that Mario is not the point guard of the future for Miami. The next few games and weeks will be pivotal for Chalmer’s fantasy value this season so this is definitely a very interesting situation to monitor. How this position battle between Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo plays out remains a mystery for now.

Well we’re more than a quarter through the season so it’s probably going to get more difficult finding significantly helpful players if you participate in active leagues.  Instead, now is the time to keep a close eye on injuries.  When a player goes down or is just hobbling, it usually means something positive for at least one of his teammates.  Another item to keep in mind is that December 15th is the first day players signed this past off season can be dealt.  Between now and the trade deadline (February 18th), expect teams to maneuver to either put themselves in better position for the playoffs or wave the white flag and start thinking about next year.

Week Eight Schedules

Four Games: CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, NOH, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, TOR, WAS, UTA

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, GSW, MIA, MIL, PHX, SAS

Two Games: NONE

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Erick Dampier (C – 34%) – If your team needs help with rebounds or blocks, Dampier is your man.  Despite the glitch with his arm over a few weeks ago, he’s played extremely well when he’s gotten the minutes, as evidenced by the 35 rebounds the last two games.  Without a doubt, he appears to be a contract year player so take advantage of him the rest of this season.  Just keep in mind there will be matchups that limit him in certain games like against the Suns, Warriors or Knicks.

Jarrett Jack (PG/SG – 27%) – If your team is in need of guard help, you should pounce on Jack  immediately.  There is a good chance Jose Calderon might be missing a ton of time in the coming future as his hip is giving him problems.  If he does miss significant time, the Jack-of-all-trades will be a wonderful source of points, assists, 3’s and FT% – everything you want out of a starting PG.

Joel Przybilla (C – 36%) – It’s rare to have possibly two excellent center prospects sitting on the waiver wire, but that’s what you may have this week.  With just a 36% ownership, it’s obvious a number of fantasy managers haven’t jumped all over the Vanilla Gorilla upon hearing about Greg Oden going down for the rest of the year.  When Oden has missed time in the past, Joel has stepped up and contributed excellent boards and solid blocks.  Portland will lean on him heavily the rest of the year; consequently, so should you.

Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 23%) – So far this season, Brandon has done everything in his power to try to force himself off of most rosters.  However, he continues to be a tough habit to kick.  Why?  Opportunity.  Danny Granger is in the midst of missing anywhere from 4 to 6 weeks at the least.  Meanwhile, Mike Dunleavy is going to continue to slowly be worked back into starter-like usage.  Lastly, Dahntay Jones doesn’t possess a strong perimeter game, but more importantly, took a hard fall in last night’s game hurting his shoulder.  Although he says he’s fine, he could be slowed down enough this week whereby Rush emerges as a fantastic contributor during the upcoming 4 game week.

CJ Watson (PG/SG – 15%) – I’m confused by the low ownership of Mr. Watson.  I guess we need to call into Sherlock Holmes to solve this mystery, even though it doesn’t appear too mystifying.  Since getting over the swine flu, CJ Watson has played fantastic ball.  In the last 8 games, ziguana.com has him ranked as the 33rd best player as he’s put up solid numbers in all 9 standard categories.  With the minutes he’s been getting, it’s obvious Nellie and crew have an affinity for him so go ride this guy while he’s hot!

CUT LIST

Will Bynum (PG/SG – 31%) – The last few games, “Will the Thrill” has been sidelined with a bum ankle.  More troubling, with the Pistons on the verge of getting Richard Hamilton and Ben Gordon back and Rodney Stuckey finally hitting shots, Bynum’s minutes appear headed back to the low 20 range.  If you do the math, his nice run appears to be over.  Just keep him in mind the next time you hear about any injury/trade rumors regarding the Piston’s back court.

Nate Robinson (PG/SG – 36%) – If the 5 straight DNP’s haven’t helping you decide, let me tell you it’s time to move on.  The final straw appeared to be fraternizing with Dwight Howard prior to the start of a game against the Magic.  D’Antoni has recently stated he doesn’t plan on changing things either.  Why should he?  The Knicks are currently on their best winning streak since D’Antoni’s arrival in the Big Apple.  I don’t have to remind anyone that Nate should be picked up at the first signs of court time considering his fantasy explosiveness.

Al Thornton (SF/PF – 58%) – This drop is more in line with the thinking that owners should be preparing to cut ties with Al in the coming weeks.  Although Blake Griffin’s return has recently been delayed, Coach Dunleavy has expressed he might be the teams new starting forward.  If Camby doesn’t get traded, that should spell the end for Thornton’s significance in standard leagues.

WATCH LIST

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 5%) – It’s a shame the Israeli sensation can’t get off the watch list, but the depth of the Sacramento Kings is to blame.  Regardless, he should continue to be an asset for points, 3’s, FG% and rebounds.  Lately his defensive numbers have vanished, but I expect him to start contributing in these areas again considering his length and style of play.  The big question mark is the inevitable return of Kevin Martin, but worry about that when the time comes.

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 9%) – “Pyscho T”  appears to have carved a consistent role off the Pacers bench.  The last 3 games, he’s averaged over 17 points, 7 boards and 1.6 steals.  Think DeJuan Blair here because low minutes (low 20s) won’t kill his value.  This guy gets it done and he could help you if you’re pressed for forward production.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (SF/PF – 4%) – Usually when you’re one of the coaches favorites and get over 30 minutes a game, you’re worth owning in standard leagues.  However, this Prince isn’t the case.  He is the Bucks no glory guy where he’ll play tough defense and bring fantastic intensity – too bad that rarely translates well for fantasy purposes.  However, despite this, he’s bound to fall into some numbers.  Deep leaguers should definitely considering owning him, but standard leagues should probably just pay attention to whether he can get into any kind of groove regarding any type of production in coming games.

Luke Ridnour (PG – 39%) – There is no other explanation other than Luke has found the force.  Through more than the quarter of this season, he just can’t miss as evidenced by the 51.8 FG%.  His previous season high?  43.3%.  The reason he’s on the watch list though is playing time.  As the Bucks have gotten healthier, his minutes have dropped measurably (under 18 the last 4 games).  Most players can’t do a whole lot with limited time so expect Luke to follow suit shortly.

Martell Webster (SG/SF – 10%) – I’m kind of getting tired about writing about this guy, but due to the rash of Portland injuries, he’s borderline worth owning in standard leagues.  He’s semi-capable of doing a lot of things:  scoring, 3’s, rebounds and defensive stats, but, for whatever reason, he can’t do any of them consistently.  Perhaps someone/something will get through to him where that’ll change, however, don’t hold your breath as I expect his maddening play to continue.

STAY THE COURSE

Mario Chalmers (PG – 65%) – Admittedly Mario hasn’t found his groove for much of the entire first quarter of the season, but don’t give up hope.  I expect Coach Spo’ to attempt to get him going as the season progresses plus Rio will probably stop getting into so much foul trouble early on in games.  His outside jumper is much more efficient this season and with no real challengers to his skill set, Chalmers will continue to be given significant time.

Boris Diaw (SF/PF – 77%) – The arrival of Stephen Jackson has perhaps put Diaw into a noticeable funk, as evidenced by a drop in his numbers across the board.  It’s not too surprising that his usage would suffer, but don’t make too much out of this in such a small sample size.  First and foremost, realize that he’s currently in the midst of a significant slump as his shot hasn’t been falling.  Considering the Bobcats have no other decent options at PF his minutes will continue to be strong so just ride this out.

COMING BACK FROM INJURY

Plonden’s mentions of Yi Jianlian (PF – 1%) and Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 40%) still apply.  Also, now is the time to probably grab Jameer Nelson (PG – 66%) if he happens to be available.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jose Juan Barea (PG – 5%) – Recently, Mr. Barea has supplanted Rodrigue Beaubois in the Maverick’s starting lineup.  Prior to that, he had a 3 game stretch of non-existent play so it’s conceivable another owner let him go.  Considering Howard’s still coming back from injury and the Coach’s penchant for Jose, he could be useful in the short term for some points, 3’s, assists and steals.

Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 4%) – Really wanted to put “Buckets” on the watch list, but considering that many deep leaguers probably have recently let him go, I wanted him in this section of the article.  Thornton has a 4 game week coming up and his shot has recently returned.  I expect at least solid points and 3’s out of him, but look for more.  Chris Paul has been enamoured with this kid since he was drafted and is recently trying to get him to do more – rebound, drive to the basket, etc.  Hopefully this translates into better boards, steals and a more meaningful FT% in the near future.

Damien Wilkins (SG/SF – 1%) – If Ryan Gomes‘ ankle/knee injury last night forces him to miss any time, Damien looks to be the beneficiary.  He’ll give a little bit of everything, but most likely it’ll be short lived as Gomes’ injury didn’t appear to be serious.

Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 1%) – Almost forgot to add this guy – thanks for the reminder Andrew!  Recently, Wright has gotten solid run for a few reasons.  One, Quentin Richardson continues to miss time due to injury.  Two, Wright seems to have improved his play including an improved jumper and better decision making.  He may be indeed be worth a speculative add if you have the roster space.

Mock drafts often seem like such pointless endeavors. The minute a team trades up or down, the sanctity of the entire mock has been violated. And this year, it is almost a guarantee that there will be movement on Thursday with many teams more focused on shedding salary instead of trying to improve. So instead of trying to predict that which cannot be predicted, let’s take a look at last year’s draft.

How will the class of 2008 be remembered when compared against the greatest classes of all time? 2003? 1996? 1984? One year later and the draft class of 2008 is looking very strong but definitely has a long ways to go before being mentioned in the same sentence as the aforementioned draft classes.

2008 NBA Draft

1. Derrick Rose
2. Michael Beasley
3. O.J. Mayo
4. Russell Westbrook
5. Kevin Love
6. Danilo Gallinari
7. Eric Gordon
8. Joe Alexander
9. D.J. Augustin
10. Brook Lopes
11. Jerryd Bayless
12. Jason Thompson
13. Brandon Rush
14. Anthony Randolph
15. Robin Lopez
16. Marreese Speights
17. Roy Hibbert
18. JaVale McGee
19. J.J. Hickson
20. Alexis Ajinca
21. Ryan Anderson
22. Courtney Lee
23. Kosta Koufas
24. Serge Ibaka
25. Nicolas Batum
26. George Hill
27. Darrell Arthur
28. Donte Greene
29. DJ White
30. JR Giddens

Second round notables: Mario Chalmers (#34), DeAndre Jordan (#35), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (#37), Chris Douglas-Roberts (#40), Sean Singletary (#42), Goran Dragic (#45), Bill Walker (#47), Mike Taylor (#55).

Besides a few head turners, the first round is stacked from top to bottom with guys who made an immediate impact in the NBA. That is a rare phenomenon in draft history. Looking back one year later we start to see which players might end up being busts and which players might end up being steals.

Potential Busts

As far as biggest busts (so far) of the 2008 NBA Draft, both Danilo Gallinari or Joe Alexander are making strong cases to be considered 2008’s top bottom dog. While it is clearly too early to be writing their professional basketball obituaries, both players are hindered by their high draft position (6th and 8th overall, respectively). Gallinari should probably be considered the second biggest bust after Alexander for two reasons.

First, Gallinari had legitimate medical reasons for not performing well in his rookie season (reoccurring back injury). With the back injury almost totally behind him, Gallinari now has to prove that he should not be considered a bust and that he belongs in the league. He has to take those flashes of brilliance he has shown on the court and turn them into consistent production. And second, Gallinari has an amazing nickname: The Rooster. If that doesn’t convince you that Joe Alexander should be considered a bigger bust, I don’t know what will.

Joe Alexander, on the other hand, does not have such convenient excuses. If you look at Alexander’s stats by position, he was clearly outplayed by his his opponent on the other team. Regardless of whether he played the three or four, Alexander ended up being a negative for the Bucks. He was less bad playing the four than the three but he was thoroughly outplayed (The Rooster’s stats by position for comparison’s sake).

In an interesting development, the Buck’s just traded Richard Jefferson to the Spurs for the carcasses (and expiring contracts) of Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas. In addition, Milwaukee moved Oberto to the Pistons for Amir Johnson. That just cleared up about 35 minutes per game at the small forward position and brought in more competition at the four. Obviously salary relief was one major concern for the Bucks, but they are also trying to free up some playing time for Alexander in order to try and prove that he wasn’t a total bust.

Steals of the Draft

One of the biggest steals of the draft came when New Jersey selected Brook Lopez with the tenth pick overall. Playing for a New Jersey Nets team in total transition, Lopez has been better than advertised and may end up being one of the top players in the 2008 Class. Before getting into it, let’s just get the obligitory Brook and Robin Lopez comparison out of the way. Now we can move on.

In looking at Brook stats from his rookie year, there are a couple of things that jump out. First, and most importantly, is his efficieny for a big man. Anytime you have a legit seven footer that shoots 53 percent from the field and 79 from the line it is a very good thing. Second, his block totals are very nice (1.9 per game) for a rookie center in the NBA and contain great promise. If you drafted Brook Lopez in your fantasy leagues last season, congratulations; you probably have a nice (fantasy) trophy to show for it.

The second biggest steal of the draft (22nd overall) may have actually come from the late second round: Orlando’s Courtney Lee. Lee played a pivotal role in the Magic’s NBA Finals appearance this season despite being remembered more for his missed shots. Lee will probably end up being a very solid player in the league and has already shown his all-around game. He can shoot, defend, pass the ball and take it to the rack and played very confident basketball during most of the regular season.

Second Round Studs

As in every draft, there are a handful of guys taken in the second round that turn out to have solid careers. Rashard Lewis and Gilbert Arenas are probably the two most commonly cited examples. The first player who might fit that bill is Mario Chalmers. Chalmers (selected34th  overall) did an admirable job as a rookie point guard for the Heat and helped get them into the Playoffs after a very disappointing season in 2007-08. That shooting guard of theirs might have had something to do with their playoff appearance as well…

The final potential second round stud is little-known Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. Despite being offensively challenged, Mbah a Moute (drafted 37th overall) has found a way to stay on the court: through solid defense. On a team coached by Scott Skiles, that is pretty much all you need to earn a steady spot in the rotation. As Luc develops, he has the potential to develop into a valuable player in the league. For where he was taken in the draft, Luc should definitely outperform expectations.

There is an overall lesson that can be taken from looking back at past drafts. It doesn’t matter where your draft pick is; value can be found throughout the draft. What really matters is who is doing the picking. Isn’t it strange that certain teams seem to always kill the draft no matter where their picks are? What is really important is to have good management that does their due diligence. The scouting, the workouts, and the numbers are what really separates a team that sees the diamond in the rough from the team that goes for the flavor of the week.