Basketball Free For All

If nothing else, Dallas Mavericks billionaire Mark Cuban is certainly not gun shy about making major moves and shaking up his roster. After a disappointing 2008-09 campaign, Cuban declared that nobody was safe from being moved.

Despite the declaration, Dallas’ core stayed intact with Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry and Josh Howard all still around. With the season just around the corner, the 2009-10 Mavericks are substantially similar to last season’s model, with versatile forward Shawn Marion and big man Drew Gooden being the main additions.

This was supposed to be a sleeper piece on Marcin Gortat or Brandon Bass. However, the Orlando Magic ended up locking down both players for very reasonable prices, which seemed to be one of the major themes of the summer of 2009. Man, it would have been awesome to finally see the Polish Sledgehammer unleashed. But it was not meant to be.

With Erick Dampier slowing down and showing his age (34), the Mavericks clearly needed an addition or two to the front court. What the Mavericks needed most was athleticism on the wing (Marion) and scoring from the paint (Gooden). Scoring in the paint is not exactly Dirk’s specialty, as he is much more of a jump shooter than Gooden.

If given minutes, Gooden has shown that he can produce and be fantasy relevant. His career per-36 minutes averages are 15.4 points on .471/.732 percent shooting, 10.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.1 turnovers. Light on the blocks and not a great field goal percentage for a PF/C player, but useful nonetheless.

In the Mavericks-Magic preseason game, Gooden showed how he can play a big role in limited minutes. He had 18 points and 6 boards and a block while shooting a high percentage in 22 minutes. Granted it is only preseason, but that also means that Gooden should most likely see more minutes as guys like Kris Humprhies, Jake Voshkuhl and James Singleton should not be seeing nearly as much court time during the regular season (they played a combined 47 mintes against the Magic).

Starting status doesn’t matter for fantasy basketball. What matters most is the distribution of minutes, as minutes are a prerequisite to having fantasy value. With Dampier approaching senior citizen status in the NBA while also being almost completely offensively inept, Gooden has a solid opportunity to carve out a 30+ minute per game role for himself.

In recent years, Gooden has not played alongside such a talented group of players. Say what you will about his age, but there are few floor generals as talented as Kidd. Throw in Dirk, Terry and Marion and Gooden should be seeing a lot of open looks as players double off of him. Drew is most effective as a complimentary, scoring big man off the bench, which appears to be exactly how Coach Carlisle plans on utilize him.

With the Mavericks looking like the legitimate third seed in the West (with the Lakers and Spurs taking the top two spots), Gooden looks like a solid late round pick (Buser Sports ADP of 170 and a Yahoo! O-Rank of 194) for managers looking to efficiently solidify their points and boards from a center-eligible player.

The depth charts and free agents pages have been updated to reflect rosters at the start of free agency (negotiations opened on July 1st at midnight). The depth charts will be continually updated to reflect offseason moves when teams are allowed to officially cut deals beginning next week. Until then, just enjoy the steady churning of the rumor mill and hope your team lands an emerging talent (Paul Millsap or Trevor Ariza anyone?) that puts them over the top. Like if the Suns could somehow land Marcin Gortat (after buying out Ben Wallace of course). That would be a very nice way to close the book on the Shaq era in the valley of the Suns.

He has many nicknames: The Warlock, the Polish Prince, the Polish Dr. J, the Polish Machine and most famously, the Polish Hammer. Heading into restricted free agency on Wednesday, there is reason to believe that the Pride of Poland, Marcin Gortat, is due for a considerable raise next season. And the team that wins the Gortat sweepstakes will be adding an important yet relatively unknown piece to their team.

Without Gortat, one can make the argument that the Magic would not have made it to the NBA Finals. With Dwight Howard suspended for game six against the 76′ers, the Magic needed a big night from Gortant. Marcin (MAR-chean) answered the call that night with 11 points on 62.5/50 percent shooting, 15 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 steals, and 3 turnovers. Most importantly, the Magic secured a win that night. During the playoffs, the Magic were 4-2 when Gortat played over fifteen minutes in a game (usually when Howard was in foul trouble).

Talk about flying under the radar. Gortat’s stats are really impressive and show why the Polish Hammer should actually be re-nicknamed as the Polish Sledge Hammer. His per-36 minute averages from his second season in the NBA are very promising indeed, tallying 10.9 points on 57.2/57.8 percent shooting, 13.0 rebounds (4.4 offensive), 0.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.4 blocks and 1.1 turnovers. Being only 24 years old, Gortat has his best years ahead of him and should improve over the next few years.

Let’s look at his offensive and defensive efficiency, exemplified by his offensive and defensive ratings. Last season, Gortat had an O-Rating of 121 and a D-Rating of 97. This is a +24 differential, which is extremely good (based on Basketball Reference’s statistics). In terms of PER, Gortat’s numbers were also impressive. When playing the center position, Gortat had a +5.8 PER differential versus the opposing team’s center  (via 82games’ stats by postion). So it is clear that Gortat has the skill to play big minutes in the NBA.

But what Marcin needs more than anything are minutes. Starter’s minutes. And it looks like Gortat may get his wish. With the Magic already in luxury tax territory (even without Hedo Turkoglu’s salary), they may not be able or willing to match a big offer sheet from another team. Last season, Gortat earned a paltry $711,517. For a legitimate seven foot big man who plays the center position and has proven that he can play at the NBA level, the sky is the limit (despite it being tough economic times and all). Gortat’s contract could vary from the mid level exception (which was around $5.5 million in 2008-09) up to around $8-9 million dollars per year.

If a team presents an offer sheet that the Magic cannot match, Gortat’s fantasy value has the potential to skyrocket. At some point in his career, Marcin will get out from behind Superman’s shadow. If Gortat ends up as a starter on an NBA team next season, Gortat would instantly become a viable first center for a fantasy squad. He does exactly what you expect from a center: he shoots from the field at a high percentage, rebounds and blocks shots. Granted his free throw percentage is awul but unlike his teammate on the Magic, he rarely gets to the line, which mitigates its impact to a certain extent.

At least now Gortat no longer has to be referred to as the big white dude that spells Howard off the bench. Or, as that scrub who got sponsored by Reebook even though he has a Jumpman tattoo on his calf. Or, for his “dunk” attempt in the 2004 German professional basketball league’s All-Star game’s dunk contest (see below).

Sorry for pulling that one out of the archives, Marcin. I still think you’re the man.

One of the big rumors near the trade deadline this season was the Phoenix Suns sending Shaquille O’Neal to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic.

“The Phoenix Suns discussed a potential trade with the Cleveland Cavaliers which would have paired Shaquille O’Neal with LeBron James for a run at the NBA title, two NBA executives familiar with the talks said Thursday morning. A Cavs official, however, said any talks regarding O’Neal have since ended.

One agent said the Suns told him they weren’t doing a deal. The Cavs’ discussions with Phoenix centered on sending Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic to the Suns.”

Source: Yahoo! Sports

Anyone think the Cavs would want a take-back on this one?

After watching them get man-handled by Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic, do you think the Cavs brass are dying to hit reset? Shaq is one of the few centers that can guard Howard one-on-one without getting annihilated. He also can get into Howard’s head, causing him to make poor decisions and to get into foul trouble (using that all important ‘veteran saavy’).

Wallace does a decent enough job guarding Howard, but is such an assent on the offensive end that the Magic don’t really have to guard him. This allows his man to act as a help defender or weak-side shot blocker. When guarding Wallace, Howard doesn’t get into foul trouble as much, which is critical to slowing down the Magic (although Marcin Gortat has proven to be a force off the bench as well).

With Lebron James, Shaq and Mo Williams the Cavaliers would have three players in the starting lineup capable of dropping twenty points on any given night. Even if they had to throw Wally Szczerbiak into the deal to make it sweet enough for the Suns, the Cavs would still be in much better shape and would probably not be facing elimination at the hands of the Magic in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Hindsight is 20/20 — which coincidentally is what the Cavs need to avoid elimination (20 points and 20 boards from the center position).