Basketball Free For All

Unfortunately the best all-star game in sports is suffering from a growing case of stupidity.  This year, Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson are still on pace to start at guard in the upcoming mid-season classic in Dallas.  Thankfully, the fans only get to choose just 10 players, but it’s become apparent that this might even be too much responsibility unless the selection process is changed.  If you’re an avid fan, this just has to get your blood boiling a bit.  Question is, what should be done?

We’ve all heard the argument that the All-Star game is for the fans so whomever they choose to start should be allowed.  In the past, this has always been acceptable as the results haven’t been too skewed.  However, with each passing year, it has become obvious this has become more of a popularity contest.  Last season the unthinkable almost happened.  Yi Jianlian finished 3rd among Eastern Conference forwards despite putting up 10.5 points (on 40.3 FG%), 1.0 3ptm, 6.2 rebounds and .5 steals/.6 blocks.  Say what?

Naturally there are many who think the game is just for fun so it doesn’t matter who gets in.

Don Nelson, who coached the West All-Star team in 1992, takes a different view of McGrady’s situation. The Golden State coach said the league should respect the fans’ right to vote by not questioning the final results.

“If you’re going to have fan voting, then you gotta accept that they might vote in a guy that hasn’t played,” Nelson said. “They may vote for a guy just because he has a big name. It’s just kind of the way it is, and you gotta live with it.”

Source:  OregonLive.com

I guess it boils down to how you view the All-Star game.  Historically, being selected was considered a proud achievement as players were honored for being the most developed and well-regarded in the league.  Just take a glance at the rosters of prior games.  I can’t seem to find any duds.

Being an avid supporter of tradition, I don’t see any reason why this definition of an All-Star should be changed now.  It’s NOT a My Fave Five game.  Consequently what steps can be done to prevent an embarrassment from happening?  Here is the short list I’ve come up with:

1)  Eliminate fan voting

It doesn’t appear too difficult to discount this one.  Next to All-Stars always being worthy players, it can be argued the other mainstay is fan voting.  Since 1951, fans have always been allowed to vote for players.  There is simply no way the NBA would take a step that would be akin to cutting off their own feet.  Fan involvement undoubtedly helps promote the game ensuring it’s survival even in difficult economic conditions.

2)  Eliminate Internet voting

It would appear that a number of irregularities have cropped up since allowing the rest of the world to have a say.  It shouldn’t come as a surprise then that entire cultures have decided to vote for their own.  Without a doubt the most polarizing figure in the game is Yao Ming.  Thanks to him, the Rockets team and individual players get an inordinate amount of attention.  Just look the latest Western Conference ballot results:  Aaron Brooks (5th among guards), Trevor Ariza (6th among forwards) and Luis Scola (7th among forwards).  In addition, I have no doubt in my mind that Yi will push (probably make) next year’s All-Star game.

However, I don’t think the best move is to suddenly alienate any regions outside of the United States.  If we truly want to globalize basketball, discrimination isn’t the way to go (I’m sure David Stern would agree as it would likely hinder the amount of revenue generated by the NBA).

Eventually, you have to believe the more familiar other cultures become with the NBA, the more likely people will vote based on performance.  It appears even a significant portion of Chinese questioned Yi almost making it last year:

China’s 350 million basketball fans have become an important group for the NBA, so it is not surprising that Yi, a Chinese national, rank thirds in the voting. They believe the votes cast by Chinese fans should carry equal weight with those cast by American or German fans, and they have called on others to be self-confident in participating in the vote.

But others argue that Yi’s skills are not good enough for him to become a starter in the All-Star game. They say some fans have voted for him repeatedly or even resorted to manipulating computer software in an attempt to give him enough votes to be included on the All-Star game’s roster.

Those that believe Yi’s skills as a basketball player are below par say the level of All-Star game is lowered by such tactics, which constitute cheating. They also note that forcing the NBA’s global fans to accept the voting results of Chinese fans is not good for the future development of Yi, whom they believe is not qualified to take part in the All-Star game at present.

Source:  China Daily

3)  Impose Certain Criteria

Another possible method to attempt to regulate All-Star selection would be placing certain restrictions.  There are countless ones that come to mind.  Perhaps the NBA places fewer names on the ballot and does away with write-ins.  How about having fan votes be worth less and be combined with expert/player/coach voting (something similar to the NFL’s Pro Bowl)?  Or maybe set up some simple criteria that have been advocated by players like Brandon Roy?

“Maybe they should do it where you have to play a certain amount of games to start,” said Roy, who was ninth in the voting for guards. “If you play in a certain amount of games, then you get to start or play before they announce the team.”

Source:  OregonLive.com

This could conceivably work but it would still be subject to scrutiny, not to mention the added requirement of increased resources.  Fans could still upset the notion of fairness under any one of those purported changes.  In addition, in many cases additional criteria would result in more work by the NBA especially since paper ballots are still used.  What would happen when the first ballots are released and then a player misses a number of games?

4)  Players & Coaches Decide Rosters Then Fans Decide Starters

In my opinion, the coaches and players in the Association should select the entire rosters up to a month before the actual game is to be held.  There is no doubt that they would come up with a very deserving roster as peers normally judge quite objectively.  Then allow the fans to vote electronically (whether through the internet or booths at arenas) starting a month before the actual game.  If deemed necessary, allow the fans to also have 1 additional write-in vote for an extra bench slot.  This would satisfy their need to select that one player they want to see participate, whether for cultural or nostalgic reasons.

There are a multitude of benefits by adopting such a selection process.  First, it allows the NBA to set up the fairest system in maintaining a tradition of great NBA players in the All Star game where fans still play an important role.  Second, it would move the NBA towards the 21st century whereby eliminating the use of paper ballots.  Lastly, it would lead a better promotion of the game by giving the most deserving players the credit.  For instance, small market teams would benefit by reducing the emphasis on obscurity.  Also, the NBA would be less likely to suffer the retirements of certain generations.  In most people’s minds, the NBA has dipped when greats like Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan retired without having someone immediately step into their big shoes.  By adopting this proposed system, NBA transitions would probably go much more smoothly.

While I’m not that incensed about either Tmac or AI (as compared to a near Yi debacle), there is a window open where one day a completely undeserving player who was never great at any time may be announced among the league’s best.  Please, if you have a minute to spare, go over to NBA.com and make the right choice.  Paper balloting will continue through Jan. 10, while wireless balloting and voting on NBA.com will conclude Jan. 18.

Houston, do we have a problem?  Perhaps.  This season, the Rockets will be starting the year without any star players on the court.  Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are, what else, taking another injury vacation.  Ron Artest left town for the greener pastures of Los Angeles.  So what can the beloved Rocket faithful expect from a team full of solid complimentary players and a bunch of unprovens?

John Hollinger predicts they’ll finish 9th in the Western Conference while ESPN analysts as a whole have them finishing around 10th.  Dave Berri of Wages of Win Journal thinks they have a good chance of finishing with over 40 wins and gives them a chance to make the playoffs.

Why are these NBA analysts so high on a team that seems to be lacking so much firepower?  Well, they’re believers in the rest of the roster.  The Rockets have a lot of excellent complimentary players in Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry and Luis Scola.  Specifically, these guys, coined ‘low usage high efficiency players’, all post above average Wins Produced by doing a lot of stuff outside of putting up huge scoring numbers.

Many of these analysts think they’ll be able to keep up similar production with a simple increase in minutes.  Herein lies the problem in my opinion.  Asking a few solid players to step up is probably sound.  Asking most of these low usage guys to become high usage guys?  I have a hard time believing it’s as simple as a linear equation.  They are going to have to spend more time on the court but produce AT LEAST at the same rate as prior years.  Don’t forget more than a few of them are also going to have to develop a high volume FG mentality.

When you remove both a McGrady and Ming, what happens?

Opposing defenses now don’t have to concentrate on the highly skilled offensive player(s).  All of a sudden, the complimentary guys become the focal point as they can’t pass off the ball anymore to the star to make something happen.  The onus is in Ariza’s, Scola’s or whomever’s hands to beat that shot clock.  Now, these players who are not adept at handling solid defensive pressure will be called on to make plays possession after possession.

To help illustrate this fact, I took a look at 2006-07 Rockets team?  Why?  They had a multitude of solid win producers like the current Rocket’s team, but more importantly, had 5 games in which both McGrady and Yao Ming missed.  Dikembe Mutombo, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Luther Head, Rafer Alston, Kirk Snyder and Juwan Howard were the 7 primary guys besides the two stars.  Based on their Wins Produced, they should have been close to an average team coming in with 37 wins.

Do you know what they did in those 5 games?  They shot a putrid 38.3% (150-392) from the field and posted an abysmal assists to turnover ratio (71 assists compared to 65 turnovers).  Since they were solid players, they were able to stay close in most of the games (avg loss of 7.2 points) and were only out-rebounded by 4.4 boards.  However, not to win a single game against squads like the 40-win Clippers, 32-win Portland or, my favorite, a 24-win Boston Celtic team?  Yikes!

This years Rocket’s main 7 (Ariza, Battier, Hayes, Landry, Scola, Lowry and Aaron Brooks) have a combined 36.2 wins based on last year’s statistics.  Sounds a lot like the 2006-07 group as they both have solid complimentary players but appear to lack at least a couple of proven scoring mentalities.

If preseason is any indicator, Rockets may indeed be in trouble as they put up a mediocre 4-4 record.  The team combined to shoot a respectable 44% (283-641) from the field but their assists (151) and turnovers (140) were pretty bad.  In addition, new team member, Trevor Ariza, saw his efficiency and rebounding go down from last season.

So far, through two games this season, the Rockets have managed one very fortunate win against the Warriors last night.  They needed every bit of the 12 of 26 shots from 3 point range to eek out a 1 point win.  Despite that peformance, they still have a dismal 41.9% overall field goal percentage on the young season.

Also, it can’t be oversimplified what consistent hardship and failure must do to one’s overall game after enjoying success the last several years.  Consistently putting up more shots than one’s accustomed to while becoming much less adept.    Less cheering/excitement for home games.  Local media outlets start talking about the lottery.  The overall lack of positive feelings have a good chance to eventually weigh on the psyche’s on most of the players during the course of 82 games.

I like Ball Don’t Lie’s prediction of a record of 37-45 which precludes Tracy making it back at some point.  This team will not have a chance on sniffing the playoffs unless Tracy McGrady shows a return to All-Star form in the majority of this season’s games.  Or I guess a young player like Aaron Brooks could try and don some wings and a halo too.

With Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, and to some extent Trevor Ariza getting all the headlines in Houston, there is one player nobody is talking about: Carl Landry. And people probably should be talking about him as he is poised for a breakout season in 2009.

Landry has had some brief moments in the spotlight during his two years playing for the Rockets. He’s had 22 point games and he’s even pulled down eleven boards in a game. Hell, he’s even taken a bullet for the team.

But now, with Yao Ming down and out for the entire 2009-10 season, there is suddenly a 33 minute hole in the Rockets’ rotation at center. Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes should both see a boost of minutes, as they were the other two Rockets to log significant minutes at the five last season.

With Scola and Hayes playing primarily at the five, Landry should see a significant spike in minutes holding down the power forward position for the Rockets next season . For reference, he averaged 21.3 minutes per game last season. Next season, Landry looks poised to earn about 30 minutes a game, with David Andersen and Joey Dorsey picking up the remainder of the minutes at the four and five.

per-36 minute statistics from last season were nice with Landry averaging 15.7 points on .574/.813 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 8.4 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.7 turnovers. If you factor in some slight gains due to improvement entering his third season in the NBA, and Landry’s promise becomes quite clear.

For certain fantasy teams, Landry is a perfect fit. For teams looking to beef up their field goal percentage without having to sacrifice free throw percentage should look no further than Landry. In fact, Landry was one of ten players last season to average .500+ field goal percentage and .800+ free throw percentage (restricted to players who logged more than 1000 minutes). He also provides rebounds, points and a little bit of defensive category production as well.

On top of everything, Landry can be had very late, including the last round of all standard size leagues. Landry’s Buser Sport’s average draft position is 160 and his Yahoo! O-Rank is nearly identical at 161st overall. He is almost a sure bet to outproduce his average draft position in the 13th round of most drafts.

In Landry, we have the especially rare convergence of a few factors to create a development sleeper and an injury sleeper.

The development sleepers are sleepers in their purest form. Development sleepers are guys who improve based upon their own skills, athleticism and acclimation to professional basketball. Generally, development sleepers make the leap from below-average to above-average in their first three seasons in the league, although there are outliers who make the leap much later (Hedo Turkoglu for example).

Possible development sleepers are around every season and this season is no exception. Guys like Russell Westbrook, Derrick Rose, Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert are all possible development sleepers for next season. These guys are all being drafted higher than their production from the 2008-09 season would warrant. This is largely based on expectations that these players have will take steps forward in their fantasy production next season.

…

Injury sleepers are when an injury occurs to a starter ahead of the potential injury sleeper (bench player) on the depth chart. Thus, the player moves ahead and experiences a sudden and protracted boost in minutes, often resulting in a surge for that player’s fantasy value as well. As we all know, the allocation of minutes is a strong factor in determining fantasy value. Last season, Paul Millsap was a perfect example of an injury sleeper, as he gained fantasy value when Carlos Boozer went down with a knee injury. The other thing to note is that, unlike development sleepers, an injury sleeper is often a temporary sleeper. When the injured player returns to the court, the injury sleeper usually returns to his bench role with reduced minutes and reduced fantasy production.

Source: Fantasy Basketball Cafe

Why is this situation so rare?

Offseason injuries that sideline a starter are rare indeed. When an offseason injury occurs that sidelines a guy for the entire season, that is even more rare. When said injury opens up minutes for a potential development sleeper, that is even rarer.

Even more shockingly, all but the most saavy of fantasy managers have not seemed to notice the immense opportunity. Landry truly is a sleeper in the most traditional sense; he is a player that is flying well under the radar while maintaining great potential to out produce his draft position.

Don’t sleep on the LandRover.

It was just two short months ago that the basketball world stood still, as one of the most shocking and unexpected stories broke –- Trevor Ariza was going to be a Houston Rocket.

OK, so it isn’t Yao Ming and his career threatening foot injury, or LeBron James blatantly talking about hinting that he might be looking somewhere other than Cleveland to set up court in 2010 (pardon the pun). But listening to all the hype, you would have thought that Trevor Ariza going to the Rockets was breaking news.

Hot off the presses type stuff. Ariza was the new media darling. And with that title came all the scrutiny and analysis of his decision to leave the World Champions.

Was it the right thing to do? Was he really feeling under appreciated in the locker room?

Or was he a victim of his own hype, all the while listening to his agent,  the “other” David Lee, dangle both virtue and dollar signs in front of him at the same time – “it was never about the money;” Lee said when interviewed, “it was about respect.”

Respect.

Fast-forward two months. LeBron James has “officially” put Dunk-gate to rest. Yao’s foot is miraculously healing well enough that he may even be able to come back as early as April of this season. And the Rockets, even though they are in rebuilding mode, are looking forward to a fast-paced, up-tempo, exciting brand of ball, while being led by the likes of Luis Scola and Shane Battier. One Houston beat writer even commented that Aaron Brooks might even be the Man.

Wait a minute! What ever happened to Trevor Ariza?

With positive medical news for both Tracy McGrady and Yao, the Trevor Ariza drama has simply vanished. Talk about respect. No more glitz and glamor, no more spotlight.

So what does this mean for Ariza, and more importantly for his impact in Houston?

There’s no denying the potential is there. As a bench guy, Ariza’s impact in L.A. was minimal. But towards the end of last season, when he became a starter, he excelled in a way that he had not done since, well… ever. Looking at splits, Ariza started 20 games for the Lakers averaging 10.1 points on .479/.806 percent shooting, 4.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.1 turnovers per start.

His free throw percentage was actually fantastic considering the fact that he’s a career .661 percent free throw shooter. His 1.9 steals per game made him a defensive lock. And he did this all with only 28 minutes per game. Just thinking about what he could do with the consistent 30 plus minutes a night he should see in Houston makes fantasy owners drool with anticipation.

But that’s fantasy –- reality is a bit less cut-and-dry here.

First off, Ariza’s coming to a Rockets team that is missing its two All-Atar mainstays. Yao will be out indefinitely, that much we know – what we don’t know is what he’ll be like when he comes back. Common sense dictates that Yao should be fine, and he should come back strong for next season. Of course, common sense also dictated that Ariza stay in L.A., and that sure didn’t happen!

Then there’s the McGrady factor. Knee-Mac T-Mac is coming off a knee injury that kept coming back, eventually causing him to shut it down in the middle of February last season. He’s been working out with Chicago trainer Tim Grover (so hot right now), and all indications are that he’s ahead of schedule. Listening to the Rocket’s General Manager Daryl Morey you might even think he may be ready for the season opener.

Rockets general manager Daryl Morey was in Chicago recently, checking on the progress of Tracy McGrady. Morey told the Houston Chronicle that McGrady looked very good, and is “way, way ahead of schedule.”

“He’s already playing,” Morey said. “I don’t think anyone could have predicted he would be playing now. He still has a long way to go. There is a lot of rust to shake off.”

Source: Sporting News via Yahoo! Sports

So what do these two situations have to do with Trevor Ariza?

Well, nothing really – and then a lot.

Fantasy-wise, Ariza takes a hit offensively with a healthy Yao and T-Mac on the floor at the same time. But even though he loses offensive touches, it won’t cut into his playing time, so his defensive production should be as good or better than it was in L.A.

But given the circumstances of the upcoming season, Ariza should see a huge bump in value. It’s very possible that all of his stats could go up, with the exception of maybe field goal percentage. This loss in field goal efficiency could be due to the fact that he’s likely to take more shots than he usually would (thus taking worse shots) while also facing more defensive pressure than he’s ever faced in his five year career.

If he can keep his free throw shooting percentage up in the high seventies or low eighties, he becomes a very attractive pick-up who could give a fantasy team points,  threes, as well as those ever-elusive steals.

But if Trevor Ariza takes it upon himself to try and be the Man in Houston, those solid numbers that many are all expecting could go by the wayside. They may not even happen at all. And listening to some in the media, that may not be too far fetched of an idea. Two months ago, it was fresh on everyone’s mind:

Ariza’s only NBA mistake occurred this week, when he followed the lead of his misguided agent, David Lee. By joining the Rockets as a miscast free-agent star, the kid now faces the possibility of a career filled with disillusionment and mediocrity, not to mention anonymity.

Source: Los Angeles Times

And there’s where the reality sets in.

Ariza will not, and probably should not, be the main focus in Houston. That’s simply not his game. Once McGrady and eventually Yao return, Ariza should settle into a role of defensive stopper while providing outside shooting and slashing. It should be very similar to the role he had in L.A. with one exception – he’ll be seeing starter’s minutes. Quality starter’s minutes, not just the 28 minutes per game he got in Los Angeles. That is how Ariza flourishes on the basketball court.

Regardless of all the hype, regardless of all the mixed messages being sent by the Rockets, Ariza and the media, the bottom line is that fantasy owners need to enjoy it while it lasts, because Trevor Ariza may never have a better situation. Rocket fans, however, will need to understand that this team is going to struggle with everything –- winning, losing, identity — the whole nine yards.

But after this season, when the dust has settled and we’re all talking about the 2010 free agent class, Houston will have gained a valuable young role player and a proven Champion. It will be remarkably similar to Ariza’s role in L.A., except he’ll be starting and playing more than 28 minutes per night. And that will definitely be a great thing for him, for Rockets fans and for fantasy managers alike.

It’s all going to come down to how he responds. How he plays this season.

His actions and attitude will dictate whether people, both fantasy players and fans, take note of Trevor Ariza. Whether they file him away for future reference or put him on the top of their cheat sheets.

Whether or not by this time next year, they’ll be asking that same question.

Trevor who?

After years of humiliating first round playoff losses, the Houston Rockets finally made it to the Western Conference semifinals where they took the Lakers to seven games. The team and its fans had reason to be optimistic about heading into next season.

The Rockets had become a venerable force in the Western Conference and they shook off the “they can’t get out of the first round” stigma. It seemed as though their strategy had worked. They refused to submit to rebuilding in years past and continued to built around a core of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. But now it appears they may be without their All-Star center for an extended period of time.

The Rockets have privately told league peers it could be a full season before Yao might be able to return to basketball. Multiple league executives, officials close to Yao and two doctors with knowledge of the diagnoses are describing a troubling re-fracture of his navicular bone. Three pins were inserted a year ago, but the foot cracked in the playoffs and isn’t healing.

Source: Yahoo! Sports

This is devastating news for the Rockets, who view Yao as the face of the franchise and the main building block with which they planned to move forward. Now it seems highly possible that Yao may have played his last game in Houston. He simply is not able to stay on the court an entire season. Think about that for a second, and let the signifcance fully set in.

Yao managed to play in 77 games this season after missing a combined 86 games in the previous three seasons. It looked as though he had finally broken his injury curse when he was sidelined with the most recent foot injury during the Lakers playoff series. Now with word that the foot injury isn’t healing and the possibility of Yao missing yet another season, what can the Rockets do?

They have been competitive with Yao out before but this is not a team that can pretend to make a championship push with Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry holding down the front court. Tracy McGrady isn’t the athlete and superstar he once was and the team has already conceded that he is no longer their go-to-guy heading forward. The Rockets have been actively shopping McGrady, whose massive $22 million expiring contract will be attractive to some teams.

Assuming McGrady is at best in his last year in Houston and Yao is out for the 2009-2010 season, the Rockets are in dire straights. They now have to decide if they will continue to wait for Yao’s foot or if they will move in another direction and rid themselves of Ming and all his ailments.

Rebuilding is a logical conclusion. In my opinion it is the only option the Rockets have at this point. Cut your loses and start over. Yao is not the type of player you can expect to ride all the way to a championship. True: he is an extremely gifted 7 foot 6 inch completely dominating force in the paint. He can block shots, grab rebounds, defend and is one of the best free throw shooters on the team.

One minor detail… he is completely made of glass. Those fragile bones in his feet keep on breaking every season because they are under so much stress (7′6″ and 310 pounds). Yao may be great, but his extreme penchant for injuries limits what he can offer the Rockets.

They have Ron Artest (if they can re-sign him), Scola and Aaron Brooks to build around. They have some recent draft picks Chase Budinger and Jermaine Taylor to help offensively. Beyond that, the Rockets really are at square one. For a team that showed so much resilience to the glut of injuries that always seemed to be lurking around the corner, Yao’s most recent one may be the fatal fracture to a team that had so much potential.