Basketball Free For All

Sorry for the delay guys, but there was a football game yesterday and it happened to include my favorite team – the New Orleans Saints.  With their monumental win, there had to be an equally impressive celebration on my part.  Laissez le bon temps rouler!

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Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

With Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball up and running early this season, there is plenty of time to examine the data and prepare for drafts and the upcoming season. One important aspect to consider before drafting and assembling the perfect fantasy squad is position eligibility.

Each season is different and each season certain guys gain extra eligibility at a position you normally wouldn’t expect. Likewise, there are players that for some reason or another are missing a position eligibility they had last season or that they should have. Each fantasy sports provider has its own quirks and nuances and uses different criteria to make their position eligibility judgments. Make sure and examine your own provides list carefully.

Or, if you use Yahoo!, just continue reading. Your welcome.

Before getting into the nuts and bolts, take a step back and do some cursory research. Find out what the criteria are used to determine and assign position eligibility for your specific provider. The criteria will be laid out somewhere on their website. Or again, just continue reading.

Initial position eligibility for each player was determined based on past participation and information supplied by NBA teams during the off-season.

Players are eligible at one or more positions during the current Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Basketball season depending upon their real-life participation.

All position eligibility requests are reviewed by Yahoo! Sports and confirmed with our NBA sources. Due to the nature of the review process, we’re unable to comment on each individual player request.

Source: Yahoo!

So the eligibility is somewhat based upon real life and is subject to Yahoo!’s discretion. The Yahoo! Help page also lays out how position eligibility can be added throughout the regular season. This is also important to note because the eligibility is supposed to mirror real life to a certain degree. So when you see position changes in real life, Yahoo! is supposed to mimic that change as well.

Updates are made during the regular season based on changes to the lineups and official team rosters. Players don’t lose position eligibility when moving from one real-life position to another. So, if a forward starts to play regular shifts as a center, he’s eligible for the remainder of the season as a forward and a center.

New positions are added when it’s confirmed that a player’s primary position has changed and that the change is not expected to be a temporary one.

When a player has earned eligibility at a new position, it will be displayed wherever player positions are shown.

The key to Yahoo!’s in-season updates is that new position eligibility is to be assigned based upon permanent changes to a player’s primary position. With that in mind, don’t get too bogged down in the details. Just something to keep in  my mind as you review the position eligibility list. I definitely recommend perusing the list for yourself as different changes will stand out to different managers.

I reviewed the top 250 players (according to Yahoo!’s O-Rank) examining only their position eligibility. I compared their assigned eligibility to a combination of last season’s eligibility and my expected position eligibility for each player. Not exactly hard science. Then, each player was classified into groups.

Here are the results.

The Rookies

This season’s first pick overall, Blake Griffin (SF/PF), also provided the first eligibility surprise for rookies: small forward status. Griffin seemed a lock to gain power forward status but also could have been though of as a longshot for center eligibility if the Clippers decided to play small ball.  Small forward status is just icing on the cake as he is not pigeon-holed into the “PF only” category.

The next group of rookies contains players that obtained eligibility at both guard positions. This group includes Johnny Flynn (PG/SG); Stephen Curry (PG/SG); Tyreke Evans (PG/SG); and James Harden (PG/SG). Some of these are more surprising than others. In particular Flynn and Harden are both surprising but for different reasons; Flynn surprisingly gained shooting guard eligibility and Harden gained point guard eligibility.

The next two players’ eligibility was very surprising indeed. Both DeMar DeRozan (SG/SF/PF) and Terrence Williams (SG/SF/PF) were given eligibility at shooting guard and both forward positions. This means these two guys can be played at shooting guard, guard, small forward, power forward, forward or utility. Now that is versatility.

Other notables: Jordan Hill (SF/PF) and David Andersen (SF/PF).

Single Position Only

Of all the fantasy stars out there, no one gets overlooked and undervalued more often than Dirk Nowitzki (PF). That is scientific fact although no scientific studies were actually undertaken. Normally, it wouldn’t be surprising that Dirk only obtained power forward eligibility with his well-known preference to play the four and not the five. However, with Shawn Marion (SF/PF) on board, there is widespread speculation that Marion might spend some quality time at the four with Dirk at the five. Stay tuned and keep an eye out for added center eligibility for Nowitzki.

In an about face, the next guy is one guy people can’t stop talking about and overvaluing. As of now, Gilbert Arenas (PG) is slated to be have point guard eligibility only. While not entirely unexpected, it is important to note that and not rely on Agent Zero having dual guard eligibility.  In fact, it is probably a good idea not to rely on Arenas for anything.

Everyone’s hottest sleeper of the summer, Anthony Randolph (PF), has been given only eligibility at the four. This is surprising because of Randolph’s real life versatility. It is compounded by the fact that Anthony plays for Coach Don Nelson, who is known for his unconventional lineups and could potentially play three (or more) positions. For a system, that is supposed to mimic real life, Randolph having power forward eligibility only is certainly an airball on Yahoo!’s part.

Other notables: Kevin Garnett (PF); O.J. Mayo (SG); Trevor Ariza (SF); Shane Battier (SF) Kenyon Martin (PF); Yi Jianlian (PF); Keyon Dooling (PG); and Jose Juan Barea (PG).

Bonus Time!

Every season, there are a certain number of players that maintain eligibility for a certain position when the probably shouldn’t (bonus!). That is a great thing, because the more flexible your squad is the greater your chances of building a championship caliber squad are. This season, Kevin Durant (SG/SF) has maintained his shooting guard eligibility even though he has played almost totally at the three since Coach P.J. Carlesimo was fired early last season after a rocky start. The switch also coincides with the Durantula’s ascent to fantasy god status.

Similarly, Memphis’ Rudy Gay (SF/PF) plays almost exclusively at the three so the power forward eligibility can be viewed as an added bonus. With new addition and black hole Zach Randolph around, Gay will most likely spend even less time at the four next season (Darrell Arthur should also be picking up scrap minutes behind Z-Bo).

Other notables: Emeka Okafor (PF/C); Udonis Haslem (PF/C); and Darrell Arthur (PF/C).

Big Men with Small Forward Eligibility

This season, there is a group of big men that received small forward eligibility. For some, like Utah’s Paul Millsap (SF/PF), it comes as a surprise. If anything, Millsap should have eligibility at power forward and center, not small forward. But you can only hope that Yahoo! fixes that during the season, which would make Millsap extremely versatile with SF/PF/C eligibility.

Other notables: Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF); Jason Thompson (SF/PF) and Brandon Bass (SF/PF).

Point Guards with Shooting Guard Eligibility

The final group of players is guys who have eligibility at both guard positions. Most of these guys should come as now surprise, including the newest Timberwolf, Ramon Sessions (PG/SG). He should see some run at the two guard alongside rookie lotter selection Johnny Flynn. The real mystery is how Flynn walked away with eligibility at both guard positions but it’s usually a good idea to never question a good thing.

Other notables: Allen Iverson (PG/SG); Rodney Stuckey (PG/SG); Lou Williams (PG/SG); D.J. Augustin (PG/SG); and Rudy Fernandez (PG/SG).

A roundup like this is a useful reference but cannot subsitute for actually sitting down and reviewing the position eligibility list yourself. Take careful note of where eligibility assignments differ from your own opinion of position eligibility and keep these issues in mind when drafting.

The next step in breaking down the pre-draft data is scouring the Yahoo! O-Ranks and average draft position lists to see which players are being overvalued, undervalued and slept on.

In competitive fantasy leagues, it’s never too early to start to identify potential sleepers for next season. Even though almost anything can change over the next few months, some players are already emerging as potential studs or breakout candidates for 2009-10.

The recipe for a potential sleeper is never the same. Sometimes it is true progression as a player, other times a trade or injury opens up minutes for a player. It can even be a truly unexplainable phenomenon. Whatever the reason, breakout players are essential to securing the ever-elusive hardware when playing against other knowledgeable managers.

Let’s break the potential sleepers into three groups: the guards, the forwards and the centers.

First, let’s look at the guards.

Tyreke Evans – Drafted fourth overall by the Suckramento Sacramento Kings this year, Evans is going to have ample opportunity to carve out a large chunk of playing time. In full rebuild mode after a pathetic 17-65 2008-09 season (.207 winning percentage), the Kings (similar to the Oklahoma City Thunder) have committed to developing their young core.

Since being drafted, the word out of Sacramento is that the Kings plan on playing Evans at the point guard position next to the high scoring guard Kevin Martin. As a rookie, Evans should probably be given eligibility at both guard spots. He has the potential to be an inefficient scorer right out of the gates, but will most likely improve over the course of the season. There are valid concerns about his assist to turnover ratio, especially if he is indeed the Kings starting point guard.

In dyanasty formats or keeper leagues with high numbers of keepers, Evans is definitely one of the players from the 2009 draft to keep an eye on.

Johnny Flynn – In a move that was widely criticized at the time, the Minnesota Timberwolves drafted both the Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio and Syracuse standout Johnny Flynn with back-to-back picks. Now with Rubio most likely staying overseas and Sebastian Telfair a Clipper, Flynn now has the keys to the low-octane Minnesota offense (24th in offensive efficiency last season).

So what is so special about Johnny Flynn?

At six feet tall (in shoes) and 190 pounds, he is an undersized point guard in the NBA. However, unlike Tyreke Evans, who was selected two spots ahead of him in the 2009 draft, Flynn is a true point guard and a natural leader. And leadership is something the T-Wolves could definitely use next season. Flynn is also a winner and exhibits all the intangibles that will keep him on the floor.

Similar to Evans in Sacramento, Flynn will get big minutes manning the point in Minnesota. However, he will probably struggle to score from distance at first and will likely have a relatively low field goal percentage. Again, like Evans, Flynn will be very valuable in dynasty and keeper formats.

Mike Conley – Entering his third season in the NBA, there are a variety of factors that could lead a reasonable manager to believe that Conley is primed for a very productive 2009-10 season. First, Conley has a coach and front office that has illustrated it’s commitment to Conley by trading away his primary competition for minutes at the point (Kyle Lowry). Second, Memphis is committed to developing it’s young and talented core of players that has been racked up over the course of successive lottery-worthy campaigns.

And finally, Conley is a talented dude that is right at the age when many players make productive strides in both fantasy and real life. Looking at his post-All-Star Game splits from last season, it is easy to see why some savvy managers are excited about his prospects for next season. In the thirty games he appeared in after the All-Star Gane, Conley averaged 14.5 points on 46.4/84.0 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 2.2 turnovers. Also, his 2.6 AST/TO ratio is solid as well.

If you assume some modest improvements based upon his post-All-Star Game splits, Conley is slated to make the jump to a very solid second point guard. His should be good for six or seven assists per game and nearly two threes and two steals per game. That is a very nice statistical combination for almost any fantasy format. Just hope that the Grizzlies don’t sign Allen Iverson. Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Eric Gordon – You may find it hard to believe that not every recent move the Clippers have made recently has been bad. For proof, just look at the Clips’ selection of Indiana guard Eric Gordon, who has drafted seventh overall in last season’s draft. By almost any measure, Gordon had an impressive rookie season. However, the way he handled himself and responded to all the adversity and drama in Clipper Nation truly showed what kind of potential this kid has.

In a season that saw an immense number of injuries to the Clippers roster, Gordon responded by putting his head down and doing work. Gordon played in 78 games and averaged nearly 35 minutes per night at the two. As a rook, he averaged 16.8 points on 45.6/85.4 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. According to Basketball Monster’s Player Rankings, Gordon was 72nd in per game rankings and 58th in cumulative value in nine category leagues last season.

If you picked up Gordon off the waiver wire last season, your team probably got a big time boost and you might have even won a medal for snagging him. If Gordon does not progress at all next season, he will definitely be worth a roster spot in virtually all formats. However, assuming efficiency and overall production gains, he should be due a rise in fantasy value next season and in the future.

Russell Westbrook – The Oklahoma City Thunder seem to be claiming the “next Trailblazers” mantle as they assemble an impressive young core of players. Their strategy is to let the players develop and mature together over a course of years. And what that means for guys like Westbrook is guaranteed minutes, which translates to fantasy gold.

When watching Westbrook play during his rookie season, it is crystal clear that Westbrook absolutely oozes potential and that his ceiling as a player (and thus as a fantasy players) is extremely high. His game breaks barriers and defies description. For a small point guard, Westbrook is an excellent rebounder, especially on the offensive end (enough so to make some compare him to Rajon Rondo).

In looking at his per-36 minute statistics from his rookie season, the potential is obvious (17.0 points on 39.9/81.5 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 5.4 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.2 blocks and 3.7 turnovers). Westbrook will develop into a triple-double threat and should easily be able to average two steals per game very soon.

When it comes to Westbrook, there are only two types of people out there. Those who believe he is an absolute stud in the making and those who have never seen the Thunder play basketball (they probably don’t even know that the Sonics are no longer in Seattle).

Lou Williams – The last of the early sleeper guards this season is perhaps the most controversial. At some point in his career, Williams will develop into a prolific scorer. However, he is currently slated to be the Philadelphia 76′ers’ starting point guard. For Williams to the play the point, he will have to go against his natural instincts, which is to put the ball through the rim.

However, he does have one thing working in his favor: new Sixers coach Eddie Jordan. Jordan, who was targeted as the Wizards’ scapegoat for last season’s pitiful start after management got Arenased, is an underrated coach who relies on spreading responsibility for creating plays to everyone on the floor. In that case (and barring further free agent acquisitions or trades), Williams looks to have a very solid outing next season.

His per-36 minute averages of 19.5 points on 39.8/79.0 percent shooting, 1.2 threes, 3.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.8 turnovers are a nice benchmark for Williams. However, the key to him sustaining solid fantasy value is going to be whether Williams can increase his scoring efficiency from the field. If he brings his field goal percentage up above his career average (41.5 percent), Williams could end up being a solid third point guard. He is especially valuable on a team that is punting field goal percentage.

With the guards down, the forwards are up next.

The Philadelphia 76ers’ urestricted free agent Andre Miller has recently accepted a three-year $21M deal with the Portland Trailblazers. The deal includes a team option for the third season at $7M.

Portland was known to have been looking for a veteran backup for sometime to help provide some leadership on the floor as well as in the locker room.  Miller appears to be an excellent addition to a team that has recently been spurned by other notable free agents including Hedo Turkoglu and Paul Millsap. Miller gives them a clear upgrade at their point guard position over Steve Blake, who is a decent point guard in his own right.

Miller is a bigger tougher Chauncey Billups-type point guard who isn’t scared to post up smaller guards, get into the lane and draw contact. He isn’t a great shooter and has little-to-no ability to shoot the 3-ball but he is a savvy veteran that makes good court decisions and rarely turns the ball over.

This move allows Portland to play Brandon Roy at his natural two guard spot late in games, where he can wreak havoc on opposing defenses with his wide array of offensive abilities. Miller can act as the distributor to whoever has the hot hand, most likely Roy or LaMarcus Aldridge, while allowing Steve Blake and Jerryd Bayless to come off the bench as solid backups.

This is a solid move for Portland. Miller will help them expand on their recent success by winning a few more regular season games and possibly pushing them deeper into the playoffs.  They now have a strong cast of young talent and are deep at every position now with Miller on board.

Fantasy implications of this trade seem to benefit the young 76er back court of Lou Williams and recent UCLA draft pick Jrue Holiday. With Miller out of town these two should be expected to log heavy minutes from the get go with Williams most likely cast as the starting point guard (barring any new free agent acquisitions by the team of course). Williams is more of a pure scorer than a distributor but he could end up averaging around 35 minutes a game with the potential for 16 points per game, 5 assists, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 threes per game. The rookie Holiday is more of a gamble but could present some fantasy value especially later in the season (or especially in dynasty leagues).

The move essentially kills any value Steve Blake or Jerry Bayless would have had, as they most likely will see their minutes reduced. Brandon Roy should still be the fantasy stud he has been for the past few seasons and may prove to be even better with possible improvements coming in his efficiency and a reduced turnover rate as well. Miller should still be the same reliable work horse he has been for many seasons posting similar stats to his time in Philadelphia and Denver (he has only missed five games in ten seasons in the NBA).

After a tough summer for the Blazers, they seem to be catching a late stride and should provide an exciting brand of basketball next season for their fans.