Basketball Free For All

The All Star break is always a good time to start reviewing and analyzing the current season, as we are starting to acquire large enough of a sample size to begin to make decent judgments. With the season over 60 percent complete, the Coach of the Year (COTY) race is starting to take shape, with two coaches in particular rising above the rest of the pack: Atlanta’s Mike Woodson and Oklahoma City’s Scott Brooks. However, this season there are a decent number of qualified coaches so we’ll break down the other hopefuls and also examine the COTY’s recent (and in some ways dubious) history to get a full picture of this season’s race.

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As we arrive at the mid-point of the season, it becomes apparent that the early season success of a few players is more than just a fluke hot start. These players may have been decent contributors in the past but never gained mainstream attention outside of their own team’s fan base. These are the players that should be considered for the Most Improved Player Award.

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Coming into this NBA season, the New Jersey Net’s expectations were low.  However, no one expected them to challenge ineptitude of historic proportions.  The Nets recent loss to the Dallas Mavericks resulted in being associated with the distinct dishonor of the worst start by any franchise in NBA history.  Worse than any expansion team or some historical bad franchise like the Clippers.  Even though they’ve recently broken through with a win, will putting their worst leg(s) forward hurt the team beyond this season?

Just How Bad Have Things Been?

To put it bluntly, the Nets have been awful.  They have the worst offensive rating (94.7), the worst points per game (87.60), the worst FG% (41.0) and the worst assists (16.25).  Most of their losses haven’t even been close as their point differential stands a little over 10 points per game (only Minnesota is worse).

To be fair, at one point they only had one original starter available for a period of time.  Devin Harris, Yi Jianlian, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Courtney Lee have all missed time for various aliments.  One of these players, CDR, was the first NBA player infected with the swine flu.  Prior to their first win against Charlotte, this foursome had missed 34 games out of a possible 72.  Don’t forget that it takes time to get back into the swing of things such as chemistry and conditioning.

Can’t also discount they’ve had some key role players miss the majority of the season:  Tony Battie, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes and Eduardo Najera.  Without a solid bench, it’s no wonder this patchwork team has been tragic against the rest of the NBA.  The New Jersey Nets probably wish they had as many healthy legs as their cheerleaders.

Did Management Stoke the Fire?

Coming into the season, the Nets had no established veterans – star or even borderline.  Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter had all been traded away.  However, a number of followers and writers proclaimed this was a good thing.  New Jersey had some promising young talent including a potentially fantastic PG and C.  More importantly, they would have about 25 million in available cap space for 2010.  As you’re probably aware, there are some fantastic names that may be available in free agency including Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire.

There does lie a problem with this thinking – it’s a year away.  For 2009, most experts predicted they’d finish at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.  Nothing new here as I’m sure most of us felt the same.  With obvious turmoil looming, why then was Lawrence Frank fired?

I guess it’s Lawrence’s fault that they wanted to go young and [clear] cap space and that everybody got hurt,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said Sunday night, before his team beat another one that is dangerously walking the 2010 tightrope, the Knicks.  “Maybe he was banging them up in practice, taking a baseball bat to them or something.  I just know that with the lineups he’s had to put on the floor, I don’t think any coach would’ve done anything better than he’s done.”

Source:  CBS Sports

Pretty hard to disagree with Stan’s assessment when considering the roster and all the injuries they’ve had to deal with thusfar.  However, were there issues going on out of the public eye?  Apparently, yes.

Sources said Nets management had come to believe that Frank had lost much of the team, a fact that has played out in losses to Denver and Sacramento in the past week. Once the Nets played so poorly against the Kings – believed to be the most winnable game on the trip – management decided it could no longer go on with Frank as coach.

Despite the return of point guard Devin Harris and shooting guard Courtney Lee, the Nets have played long stretches of uninspired basketball. “Most of the guys have tuned him out,” one source with direct knowledge of the locker room environment said. “This isn’t all Lawrence’s fault, but everyone knows that this can’t go on anymore.”

Source: Adrian Wojnarowski

Beat writers close to the Nets also observed that Frank and Devin Harris were not seeing eye to eye.

“In the times I’ve been here, I’ve been so (angry) because of a lack of effort,” Frank said last week. “But these guys are giving virtually everything they’ve got.”

But they didn’t give him the effort lately and he had to go. Now, the next coach will have to coax more team play out of Devin Harris, who had problems with Frank’s controlling style and has gained the reputation of being a solo act.

“Last year we had Vince Carter and he was a positive influence on the young guys,” said one team official. “But he’s not here, and it hurts because the coach and point guard are not on the same page.”

Source:  Mitch Lawrence

Consequently, it’s not surprising the Nets let Frank go.  At least, they fired him before they set the all-time record so that his name wouldn’t have to be associated with it.

Therefore, on the surface, it would seem they’ve made the correct moves.  There is one thing still bothering me though.  Did they consider the consequences if this team loses too many games?

Will a really bad record have long term effects?

We’ll examine two aspects to gauge possible long term affect:

1) How historically poor teams fare with rosters primarily consisting of talented youth in following years.

2) How many big time free agents signed with historically bad teams in following seasons.

1) First, we’ll examine how promising teams reacted to severely disappointing seasons.  Specifically, we’ll look at the 1993-94 Dallas Mavericks, 1999-00 Chicago Bulls and the 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers.  These teams were chosen because they were all in the midst of serious rebuilding with promising youth with a significant stretch of poor play.

The 1993-94 Mavericks team finished with a 13-69 record, but they were best known for posting a 2-39 record (OUCH) through the midpoint of the season.  The team wasn’t completely devoid of talent as they had two promising but young 19 point scorers in Jim Jackson and Jamal Mashburn.  So how dire did it get?

You hear about it and read about it, but words cannot really describe the hopelessness down here. At one point last night, the Dallas Mavericks called a 20-second timeout and spent a good 15 seconds trudging back to the huddle, defeated.

At courtside, owner Donald Carter sat in his hideous shirt and his jeans and his 10-gallon hat, cheering his team wildly while it was 15 down. The latest news? Jimmy Jackson says he’ll never, ever, EVER sign with the Mavs, no matter how many faxes they send.

Source:  Encyclopedia.com

Well Jim ended up staying (contracts will do that to you), but the Mavericks continued to flounder by averaging close to a 27-55 record the next 4 years.  This is impressive despite drafting win-producer Jason Kidd.  It seemed that the 3 J’s were destined to be part of a great future, but this wasn’t the case.  In 1996-97, all three were traded away as the team decided to go in a new direction under Don Nelson.

The 1999-00 Chicago Bulls finished with a 17-65 record, a few seasons removed from the Jordan era.  The team did have some promising rookies in Elton Brand and Ron Artest while bringing in John Starks and Bruce Bowen after trading away Toni Kukoc during the season.  The following season the Bulls drafted/acquired Brad Miller, Jamal Crawford, Marcus Fizer and Ron Mercer, but this time they won only 15 games including losing a franchise worst 21 straight games on the road.

Overall, the promise never amounted to anything as the team averaged a 22-60 during the four year stretch after the 1999-2000 season.  The overriding theme seemed to be concentrating on youth without enough experience as they fell into a pattern gambling on youth that failed to pan out including Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler and Jay Williams.

The 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers were able to collect some talent after two horrendous years.  However, Lamar Odom, Derek Anderson, Maurice Taylor and Michael Olowokandi only managed 15 wins while starting the season with a then NBA record of 17 straight losses.

On paper, this team’s untapped talent and balance — four players averaging more than 13 points per game, and arguably the largest collection of “he’s-got-great-upside” players — belies its results.

Source: NBA.com

In the following years, they garnered an impressive amount of talent on paper: Darius Miles, Quentin Richardson, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand and Andre Miller.  Guess what, all these young guys managed to contribute an average W/L record of 31-51 the following four years.

Now, there have been some deviations from the norm when franchises have decided to completely entrust their future in youth.  Namely, the Portland Trail Blazers come to mind.  After blowing up the Jail Blazers and some troubling players the next few years, they appear to be ready to challenge the league’s best for years to come.  However, it would appear it takes a special bunch of players like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge among others to make it happen.

Therefore, where does this leave the current Nets?  Coming into this year, there were no illusions, but there was hope that the Nets had put together a solid young core.  However, Dave Berri of The Wages of Win Journal made an interesting analysis of the Net’s franchise.  Basically, when Jason Kidd has not been on their team, they’ve been a bad team and his predictions don’t have anything changing that.

In addition, their terrible start is already affecting their morale:

“We don’t have any heart,” Chris Douglas-Roberts, the second-year guard, said. “It’s like we’re laying down. Weak. It’s a sign of weakness.”

Douglas-Roberts said the word was out on his team: “All you got to do is come out, punch them in the mouth and they’ll give up and run with their tail between their legs.”

Although the Nets were decimated by injuries early in the streak, they are nearly back to whole. Yet the fight they briefly showed in close defeats in early November is nonexistent.

“The spirit’s been broken a little bit,” said guard Devin Harris, the Nets’ lone All-Star.

Source:  New York Times

Uh-oh – hopefully, this is just a fleeting attitude and the Nets can put together a lot of solid performances.  Otherwise, you’ve got to believe they’ll continue to be tested mentally as other historically bad teams and it will take all their effort to stay together and focused on a common goal.

2) A second method of attempting to change years of bad fortune is through free agency.  A key signing or two could significantly change a team’s outlook.  However, there are multiple obstacles to this theory.  Poorly performing teams seem to have trouble acquiring or keeping top talent.

Let’s look at the top 30 players by salary (all over $14M). 15 of them are on teams that had over a .600 win% (50+ wins), while just 3 of them are on sub-.400 teams. In other words, the most successful teams employed 1.67 of these elite players on average, while the worst teams employed just 0.375 elite players.

Source: Hawkonomics

These statistics were compiled from last year’s payroll and performance.  One can gleam two likely scenarios for this disparity.  One, top players usually have choices in their destination; thus, they choose to play for a winning team that gives them a shot for a championship.  Two, poor performing teams usually suffer from the lack of capital necessary to sign major free agents.  Media outlets aren’t interested to pay top dollar to carry broadcasts while businesses and fans aren’t interested in sinking money for tickets, suites and other endeavors.

In one of the other historically bad teams we analyzed, the Chicago Bulls attempted to go the free agency route:

Remember, the summer of 2000 was supposed to be it. Actually, scratch that, Chicago had big designs on the summer of 1999, if we’re honest. And, if we’re to be completely accurate, the summer of 1998 was supposed to see all sorts of free agents flock to Chicago to eat up the team’s cap space. The summer of 1998 didn’t happen, for anyone. GM Jerry Krause saw the writing on the wall when most FAs signed with their old teams for more money in the truncated post-lockout offseason, and after talking up the 1999 offseason, he decided to make a few more cap-clearing moves and parlay that money (and two lottery picks) to the 2000 offseason.

Source:  ChicagoNow

As we can observe, the free agency route failed the post-Jordan Bulls.  Players obviously had no desire to come to Chicago despite the apparent available capital.  Therefore, what is there to ensure the same won’t happen to the Nets?  They’re off to a horrendous start, have historically been a well below average team and have put all their faith into a roster comprised of largely unproven young players.

However, the Nets do have two things in their favor.  First, it appears the long proposed move to Brooklyn will definitely happen.  Second, the Nets also have a new principal owner – Mikhail Prokhorov – one of the wealthiest men in the world.  Playing in the most dynamic sports city in American coupled with the deepest pockets can potentially bring in a top player or two.

They want a basketball team in Brooklyn – but not this one.

After the New Jersey Nets broke the record Wednesday night for starting an NBA season with the most consecutive losses – 18 – some borough sports fans had a message for owner Bruce Ratner as he tries to bring the team to Brooklyn: Start winning or don’t bother.

“I don’t want an 0-and-18 team coming to New York, especially to Brooklyn,” said Assane Ethols, 21, a Canarsie security guard. “It’s go hard or go home here.”

Source:  New York Daily News

It looks like a lot DOES ride on this season so let’s hope the current group starts playing better.

Legends are born the same way fortunes are made in basketball: through clutch late game heroics. Among active NBA players, Hedo Turkoglu has a reputation for being a late game assassin who will take and make big shots. After all, his nickname is the Michael Jordan of Turkey as a homage to the League’s undisputed king of clutch.

Since winning the Most Improved Player Award for the 2007-08 season, Turk’s stock has risen steadily, culminating in last season’s deep post-season run complete with an NBA Finals appearance. Along the way, Hedo has steadily become known for being a guy that can be relied upon to hit the big shot.

Shots like that game winner against the Celtics last season stick in our collective memory banks further reinforcing Turk’s mythical clutch status. They also helped Hedo get a nice payday from the Toronto Raptors, who paid a premium (over $50 million over five years) to obtain the six-foot-ten forward’s services.

Take a look at the following quote that was taken from a post from Hoop Doctors, as it is fairly representative of Hedo’s Turk perceived status as a clutch shooter. The post lists the NBA’s most clutch shooters and has Turk ranked fifth overall, ahead of truly clutch players such as Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony (neither of which make the list’s top fifteen clutch shooters).

Last season, Turk probably hit more clutch shots than anyone, but with a new home and a new team this season, it will be interesting if he still gets those same opportunities to be a game-saver. In the ’09 playoffs, Turkoglu showed he understands the moment by increasing his free throw, field goal, and 3-point percentages.

With that in mind, let’s first examine Turk’s shooting efficiency numbers.

Hedo’s shooting statistics are important because clutch shooting doesn’t only occur in the fourth quarter when the game is on the line. On the contrary, there are a number of important moments throughout a game that can be considered clutch. Coming out of a timeout in a must-score scenario involves clutch play whether in the first quarter of fourth. In fact, considering how precious each and every possession is in a basketball game, each play is rather significant and affects the outcome of the game.

So what do Hedo’s shooting statistics tell us about Hedo the shooter?

A lot actually.

In general, Hedo is not an elite shooter, no matter how you slice and dice the numbers. Looking at the raw shooting statistics, Turk is actually a below average shooter from the field, shooting .439 from the field this season this season and .413 last season. From deep, Turk is a fairly average shooter relative to all players that play over 30 minutes a game, shooting .398 this season and .356 last season. The raw numbers don’t look so hot but couldn’t that be a function of Hedo taking a large number of threes (4.6 three point attempts this season and 4.9 attempts in 2008-09)?

To control for three point attempts when considering shooting efficiency, consider effective field goal percentage. Effective field goal percentage compensates three pointers by weighting them according to their value (1.5 times a normal field goal). This season, Turk’s effective field goal percentage is slightly higher than the league average for players playing over 30 minutes a night (.523 versus average of .501). Last season, Turk was slightly below average (.478 versus an average of .506). Nothing mind blowing here and Hedo can probably be considered an average shooter amongst NBA starters.

If you divide the NBA shooters loosely into tiers, Turkoglu would not qualify for elite status. For comparison’s sake, let’s take a look at two of the league’s leading shooters this season to have a benchmark for what elite shooting statistics look like. When talking about great shooters, there is no better poster child than two time MVP Steve Nash. The Canadian Kid’s raw shooting statistics this season are .529/.431/.942 percent shooting. He is on track to join the extremely selective 50/40/90 club (again). If you consider effective field goal percentage, Nash’s shooting looks even more impressive at .595 percent. For a more recent member to join the top tier of shooters in the NBA this season, look no further than sophomore swingman Anthony Morrow. Morrow’s raw statistics are extremely impressive at .529/.514/.885 percent. His ridiculous three point percentage is the main driver of his equally ludicrous .641 eFG%. Compared to top tier shooters, Turk pales in comparison.

So he may not be an elite shooter but what about Hedo the clutch shooter?

With that in mind, let’s boil Turk’s down to the most clutch of all moments: fourth quarter/overtime scenarios when the game is on the line. Using 82 Games’ clutch criterion, clutch play is furthered narrowed down to the last five minutes when neither team is ahead by more than five points. These plays are the essence of clutch and provide an objective way of sorting fact from fiction.

The data from 82 Games has not been updated for this season so we can only go off of last year’s data. Much of the data is provided in per-48 minute form, meaning the statistics are scaled to 48 minutes of clutch time (as defined earlier). In these 48 minutes of clutch time (based off of a sample size of 134 minutes for Turk), Hedo averaged 26.6 points, which was good for 51st overall. Not terrible, but certainly not elite. More damningly, however, is Turk’s efficiency from the field during clutch time (.357), which was significantly worse than his season average and was good for 156th overall.

Compare these clutch numbers to a player like Lebron James and the contrast is startling. In his 48 minutes (compiled from a sample size of 111 minutes), James averaged 55.9 points on .556 percent shooting from the field, which represents a marked improvement upon his normal field goal percentage of .489. A truly clutch player rises to the occasion and elevates their performance to another level when the game is on the line. Turkoglu’s statistical track record just doesn’t mesh with people’s percetptions of Hedo the fourth quarter assassin.

It appears Hedo’s clutch shooting might have been a bit overblown. How can you explain that?

At risk of getting too philosophical, the problem lies within each of our minds as humans (don’t say I didn’t warn you). People have selective memories where we remember events that coincide with our preexisting beliefs and ignore events that contradict our beliefs. When we see Turk hit a buzzer beater on Sports Center it reinforces the idea that he is a clutch shooter. When we see Hedo miss a clutch three, it goes down as a non-event because it doesn’t gel with our preexisting perception that Turk is a clutch shooter.

For a real life example, check out the following quote from the New York Times that was written during the 2008-09 NBA Finals.

The line between success and setback blurred again for Turkoglu, who has developed into a clutch shooter for the Magic. With little time left in the game, Turkoglu has come up big for the Magic. His résumé includes a game-winning shot in the first round against the Philadelphia 76ers and several game-winners the past two regular seasons.

On Sunday Turkoglu delivered everything but the win.

“I saw an opening and threw it up,” Turkoglu said of his inbounds floater to Lee. “It would have been great for us because we played good.”

In this quote, you’ll notice that the author is paying homage to Turk’s reputation as a clutch shooter in a game that Turk didn’t even hit the game winner. In fact, the final shot wasn’t even put into his hands. Instead, the play was drawn up for Courtney Lee who infamously missed the wide open alley-oop. If Hedo was the clutch shooter as advertised, you can guarantee Coach Van Gundy would have drawn up the final play for Turk to shoot and not pass.

In the end, a lot of the blame for Turk’s inflated reputation as a clutch shooter lies with the media, who glorifies his late-game heroics (event) but ignores his failures (non-event). Once designated clutch, the media picks up the story and runs with it, creating a feedback loop. It parallels the talk from before this season’s draft, which had fans, announcers, coaches, players and everyone in between talking about what a weak draft pool it was. With Brandon Jennings increasingly the next anointed superstar, Tyreke Evans putting the Kings franchise on his back and first pick overall Blake Griffin having not even played a single minute yet this season, it is clear that the draft class of 2009 had bona fide superstars in its midst despite the media writing the entire class off as weak.

Before declaring Turkoglu one of the top five clutch shooters in the NBA based upon glowing accounts in the media, analyze the empirical evidence and make your own informed decision.

For some managers, there is no more exciting and challenging experience than a competitive keeper league. In certain respects, a keeper league mimics the idea of managing a team more realistic than a standard redraft fantasy league. The same can be said for dynasty or auction leagues to an even larger degree.

The Basics

In keeper leagues, managers get the opportunity to build teams around a core of players instead of assembling new teams each season. Honestly, both formats are fun and challenging but the idea of putting together an awesome keeper core and then building a championship-caliber squad around them is an extremely rewarding experience.

With dynasty leagues, you get the opportunity to draft and retain an entire team of players, replicating the actual general manager experience to a greater degree than a standard keeper league. Dynasty leagues strongly reward managers who can identify talent and secure talent. It separates those with an eye for talent and devotion to the game from those that get the entirety of their hoops knowledge from SportsCenter (no disrespect to SC at all).

And auction leagues take dynasty leagues to a whole new level of complexity by forcing managers to bid against each other for talent and then to live with the teams they assemble and the salaries they pledged. The key to auction leagues is finding value on the cheap. That’s how you secure the hardware.

So, how do you spot talent and sign them cheaply?

That is pretty much like asking for the fantasy holy grail. For starters, you have to have NBA League Pass. Second, you need a lot of free time and a patient and understanding significant other. Then you need to do your due diligence (and no shortcuts either). Finally, you need a serious dose of luck.

Pretty simple, eh?

League Settings and Variations

Keeper leagues themselves are not by any means universal. They can be roto or head-to-head. They can be standard eight or nine category or they could be entirely different combinations of categories. There really is no such thing as a “plain vanilla” keeper league.

The main distinguishing factor between keeper leagues, however, is the number of players kept from year-to-year. The most common number of keepers is probably around four or five, but the number can really be all over the map and can range from one to nine. Leagues that keep more than ten players are probably closer to dynasty leagues than to keeper leagues.

Beyond the previously mentioned differences, there can also be other variations for keeper leagues. One of the most common way involves forfeiting draft picks based upon who is kept. Let’s say that last season you drafted Dirk Nowitzki in the first round, Paul Pierce in the third round, Kevin Durant in the sixth round and Wilson Chandler in the twelfth round. In a normal keeper league, Nowitzki, Pierce and Durant would be the no-brainer keepers.

However, under these league settings, you would have to forfeit your first, third and sixth round picks to keep those three players. So then you have to consider the value you are getting (i.e. the keeper) versus the value you are paying (i.e. the draft pick). Under these circumstances it might make sense to keep Chandler over one of the other three players based upon value alone. In this case, you can only really consider Pierce as Nowitzki and Durant are locks to post first round value.

Thus, the dilemma becomes would you rather have Paul Pierce, a twelfth round pick and no third round pick? Or, would you rather have Wilson Chandler, a third round pick and no twelfth round pick? There is no right answer here but it basically depends upon how you value the two players and their future outlooks and team situations.

For dynasty leagues, the treatment of rookies provides one source of variation. In some leagues, rookies are thrown into a pool with all players not rostered at the end of the preceding season. Thus, rookies are drafted with veterans in the redraft to fill rosters at the start of next season. The other common way of handling rookies is through a separate rookie draft. This can be a one or two round mini-draft, depending upon the number of managers in any given league. This method also mimics real life to a large degree and rewards managers that follow college or do their research before the rookie draft. This is good way for managers with an eye for talent to lock up premier talent on the cheap.

The basic lesson from this discussion of some of the common league settings and variations is a simple one. Know your league and the various nuances of its scoring and settings. This is often the difference between the average managers and those standing tall on the winners podium at the end of the season.

Critical Strategy!

Regardless of league type (keeper, dynasty, auction), scoring type (roto, head-to-head, points) or league settings (number of keepers, forfeiting draft picks, treatment of rookies), there is one common mistake that is prevalent. In fact, it’s practically an epidemic and it can absolutely cripple a fantasy team. It is the mistake of overvaluing youth and building for the future.

Keeper league and dynasty managers often build with a timeline of years laid out in front of them. Call it the Portland or Oklahoma City model of team building. They draft the most talented rookie first and plan on waiting years until that player blossoms into the Man. However, this model ignores the fundamental purpose of fantasy basketball and why we participate.

We play fantasy sports to win; simple as that.

Every manager, all of the time, should be gunning for the gold. It doesn’t matter how bad your keeper core is or which team has Lebron James, Kevin Durant and Dwyane Wade, your goal is to beat everyone, everyday. It takes a truly outstanding manager with a focused vision and realistic game plan to beat a team with vastly superior keepers (not to mention a little goodwill from lady luck). And these wins are often times the most satisfying of all fantasy basketball victories.

So, when drafting in a keeper or dynasty league, always remember that the ultimate goal is to win the upcoming season. Obviously you don’t want to handcuff yourself in the future but don’t ever forfeit an entire season before it begins. It is amusing to see how early players with “upside” or “potential” get drafted over a proven veteran with a very high chance of continuing their fantasy production. A good example would be drafting Hasheem Thabeet when Ray Allen is available in the redraft.

In head-to-head leagues, continue to compete up until you are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. As soon as this happens, then you can start to plan for next season. Open up negotiations with all of the managers in the playoffs and see what they need. The idea is to trade all of your depth (i.e. non-keepers) for star power. Trade three, four or even five players to a contender to get their star. Do anything you can to compile and consolidate star power. That is how unstoppable keeper teams are made.

Once you exhaust all depth for star power trades, explore avenues for acquiring draft picks. The same rules apply; trade any non-keeper to those in the playoffs (or teams with weak keeper cores) for draft picks. This puts you in the best possible position to dominate next season. Because as soon as the playoffs end, you lose the leverage of being able to trade with players who are still trying to win it all this season.

Competing in dynasty and keeper leagues is not difficult if you follow a couple of basic rules and are willing to devote enough time and effort to besting your opponents. First, make sure and know your league settings and all of it’s nuances. Second, avoid the all-too-common pitfall of overvaluing youth and potential at the expense of trying to win now. Finally, have fun and try and not take it too seriously.

This article originally appeared at Barracuda Fantasy Sports. Check out their redesigned home page with tons of solid fantasy sports articles and analysis.

It was just two short months ago that the basketball world stood still, as one of the most shocking and unexpected stories broke –- Trevor Ariza was going to be a Houston Rocket.

OK, so it isn’t Yao Ming and his career threatening foot injury, or LeBron James blatantly talking about hinting that he might be looking somewhere other than Cleveland to set up court in 2010 (pardon the pun). But listening to all the hype, you would have thought that Trevor Ariza going to the Rockets was breaking news.

Hot off the presses type stuff. Ariza was the new media darling. And with that title came all the scrutiny and analysis of his decision to leave the World Champions.

Was it the right thing to do? Was he really feeling under appreciated in the locker room?

Or was he a victim of his own hype, all the while listening to his agent,  the “other” David Lee, dangle both virtue and dollar signs in front of him at the same time – “it was never about the money;” Lee said when interviewed, “it was about respect.”

Respect.

Fast-forward two months. LeBron James has “officially” put Dunk-gate to rest. Yao’s foot is miraculously healing well enough that he may even be able to come back as early as April of this season. And the Rockets, even though they are in rebuilding mode, are looking forward to a fast-paced, up-tempo, exciting brand of ball, while being led by the likes of Luis Scola and Shane Battier. One Houston beat writer even commented that Aaron Brooks might even be the Man.

Wait a minute! What ever happened to Trevor Ariza?

With positive medical news for both Tracy McGrady and Yao, the Trevor Ariza drama has simply vanished. Talk about respect. No more glitz and glamor, no more spotlight.

So what does this mean for Ariza, and more importantly for his impact in Houston?

There’s no denying the potential is there. As a bench guy, Ariza’s impact in L.A. was minimal. But towards the end of last season, when he became a starter, he excelled in a way that he had not done since, well… ever. Looking at splits, Ariza started 20 games for the Lakers averaging 10.1 points on .479/.806 percent shooting, 4.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.1 turnovers per start.

His free throw percentage was actually fantastic considering the fact that he’s a career .661 percent free throw shooter. His 1.9 steals per game made him a defensive lock. And he did this all with only 28 minutes per game. Just thinking about what he could do with the consistent 30 plus minutes a night he should see in Houston makes fantasy owners drool with anticipation.

But that’s fantasy –- reality is a bit less cut-and-dry here.

First off, Ariza’s coming to a Rockets team that is missing its two All-Atar mainstays. Yao will be out indefinitely, that much we know – what we don’t know is what he’ll be like when he comes back. Common sense dictates that Yao should be fine, and he should come back strong for next season. Of course, common sense also dictated that Ariza stay in L.A., and that sure didn’t happen!

Then there’s the McGrady factor. Knee-Mac T-Mac is coming off a knee injury that kept coming back, eventually causing him to shut it down in the middle of February last season. He’s been working out with Chicago trainer Tim Grover (so hot right now), and all indications are that he’s ahead of schedule. Listening to the Rocket’s General Manager Daryl Morey you might even think he may be ready for the season opener.

Rockets general manager Daryl Morey was in Chicago recently, checking on the progress of Tracy McGrady. Morey told the Houston Chronicle that McGrady looked very good, and is “way, way ahead of schedule.”

“He’s already playing,” Morey said. “I don’t think anyone could have predicted he would be playing now. He still has a long way to go. There is a lot of rust to shake off.”

Source: Sporting News via Yahoo! Sports

So what do these two situations have to do with Trevor Ariza?

Well, nothing really – and then a lot.

Fantasy-wise, Ariza takes a hit offensively with a healthy Yao and T-Mac on the floor at the same time. But even though he loses offensive touches, it won’t cut into his playing time, so his defensive production should be as good or better than it was in L.A.

But given the circumstances of the upcoming season, Ariza should see a huge bump in value. It’s very possible that all of his stats could go up, with the exception of maybe field goal percentage. This loss in field goal efficiency could be due to the fact that he’s likely to take more shots than he usually would (thus taking worse shots) while also facing more defensive pressure than he’s ever faced in his five year career.

If he can keep his free throw shooting percentage up in the high seventies or low eighties, he becomes a very attractive pick-up who could give a fantasy team points,  threes, as well as those ever-elusive steals.

But if Trevor Ariza takes it upon himself to try and be the Man in Houston, those solid numbers that many are all expecting could go by the wayside. They may not even happen at all. And listening to some in the media, that may not be too far fetched of an idea. Two months ago, it was fresh on everyone’s mind:

Ariza’s only NBA mistake occurred this week, when he followed the lead of his misguided agent, David Lee. By joining the Rockets as a miscast free-agent star, the kid now faces the possibility of a career filled with disillusionment and mediocrity, not to mention anonymity.

Source: Los Angeles Times

And there’s where the reality sets in.

Ariza will not, and probably should not, be the main focus in Houston. That’s simply not his game. Once McGrady and eventually Yao return, Ariza should settle into a role of defensive stopper while providing outside shooting and slashing. It should be very similar to the role he had in L.A. with one exception – he’ll be seeing starter’s minutes. Quality starter’s minutes, not just the 28 minutes per game he got in Los Angeles. That is how Ariza flourishes on the basketball court.

Regardless of all the hype, regardless of all the mixed messages being sent by the Rockets, Ariza and the media, the bottom line is that fantasy owners need to enjoy it while it lasts, because Trevor Ariza may never have a better situation. Rocket fans, however, will need to understand that this team is going to struggle with everything –- winning, losing, identity — the whole nine yards.

But after this season, when the dust has settled and we’re all talking about the 2010 free agent class, Houston will have gained a valuable young role player and a proven Champion. It will be remarkably similar to Ariza’s role in L.A., except he’ll be starting and playing more than 28 minutes per night. And that will definitely be a great thing for him, for Rockets fans and for fantasy managers alike.

It’s all going to come down to how he responds. How he plays this season.

His actions and attitude will dictate whether people, both fantasy players and fans, take note of Trevor Ariza. Whether they file him away for future reference or put him on the top of their cheat sheets.

Whether or not by this time next year, they’ll be asking that same question.

Trevor who?

With Yao Ming down and out for (most likely) the entire NBA season and with Sun Yue no longer a Laker, Yi Jianlian must carry the hopes of over a billion Chinese. If the recent reports are true, Yi might finally be ready to step-up and become the player many thought he could become.

The burden of being selected in the lottery is often a difficult one to bear (selected 6th overall in 2007 in front of players like Joakim Noah, Spencer Hawes and Wilson Chandler). Some players take the challenge, and others crumble under the pressure of being called the b-word (that’s bust, folks). I’m looking at you, Mr. Brown.

However, Yi’s burden is two-fold. In addition to the typical lottery selection pressure, Yi must also deal with the pressure of being one of the few Chinese players in the Association. And make no mistake, China’s passion and love for basketball and the NBA is extremely high and the additional pressure of billions of Chinese people’s expectations is very real.

Recently, Yi was praised by Coach Lawrence Frank for his play this summer with the Chinese national team. Granted, his play was against much, much weaker competition (Kazakhstan has a basketball team?). But what is encouraging is that Yi has handled the pressure of being in the spotlight, of being the Man, without Yao and has flourished.

The confidence, or swagger is key. It’s always been clear that Yi had the physical and basketball tools to succeed in the NBA. The question has always been about his mental toughness and ability to peresevere against all odds. That’s what separates the purely talented from the successful in the NBA.

When analyzing Yi’s numbers last season, it is important to note two things. One, is that he was traded out of Milwaukee after only one season. This may have affected his confidence as he probably felt like he had to start over again in New Jersey. Two, is that Yi broke his pinkie finger in a game against the team that drafted him in January. After that game, Yi’s production just never got back on track.

Enough about the intangibles, what do the numbers say?

His per-36 minute averages from last season were 13.3 points on .382/.772 percent shooting, 8.3 rebounds, 1.2 threes, 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.9 blocks with 1.8 turnovers. For comparison’s sake, Yi shot .421/.841 percent shooting in his rookie season before digressing in his sophomore season.

If Yi really has gained his confidence and swagger back, his efficieny from field and the line should bounce back to respectable levels. It is doubful that Yi will ever increase his efficiency to elite levels, but he could eventually end up being above average from the field and excellent from the charity stripe. One thing’s for sure, his field goal percentage has nowhere to go but up from last season.

When looking closer at his statline, it’s immediately apparent that Yi has three-steal-block per game potential. In case you were wondering, the only four guys who pulled if off last season were Dwyane Wade, Lebron James, Danny Granger and Francisco Garcia. No, seriously. Now that’s great company.

If Yi really has overcome the mental hurdles that have limited him during the course of two years in the NBA, he is primed to have a breakout season for the Brooklyn New Jersey Nets. And with Vince Carter in Orlando, the opportunity is certainly there for Yi to prove that he belongs in the League (and on fantasy rosters for that matter).

It’s now or never.

With the upcoming NBA season still a few months away, it’s time to take an early look at the fantasy prospects for a team that threatens to be very relevant: the Washington Wizards. Last season was a forgettable one for the Wizards (to say the least).

Washington finished the season with an embarrassing 19-63 record, making them the second worst team in the league behind Sacramento’s lowly mark of 17-65. They began last season with a record of 1 and 10, which prompted the firing of then head coach Eddie Jordan. The team never managed to recover from the rough start, finishing out the year with a string of insipid performances.

Sure, they had a rough go of it last year, injuries caused their best player, Gilbert Arenas, to miss all but two games (he did average 13 and 10 though, technically speaking). Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood both missed a significant amount of games as well. Outside of DC, it is rarely mentioned what an impact Haywood has for the Wizards, both on and off the court.

That being said, it is a new season for the Wizards and their outlook is significantly better for 2009-10.

The Wizards were one of the most active teams this off-season. They began their roster tune-up with a pre-draft trade with Minnesota, sending Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, Oleksiy Pecherov and the 5th overall selection in the 2009 draft, in exchange for guard/forward Mike Miller and guard Randy Foye. This was a big time move by the Wizards aimed at vaulting them back to contender status in the East.

The Bullets Wizards have entered the arms race in the Eastern Conference.

They traded spare parts (and a rotation player in Songaila) and their lottery pick, which turned out to be Ricky Rubio, to bring in a few veterans to help right away. The move should definitely improve their win total significantly next season while helping take some of the offensive load off the oft-injured and aging core of: Arenas, Butler and Antawn Jamison.

With a new-and-improved squad heading into next season, the Wizards should provide a variety of quality fantasy options for managers to tap. The key is to correctly identify which Wiz will be in the rotation, as Coach Saunders has made it known that his rotation only consists of eight players.

Take a look at the Wizards roster:

PG: Gilbert Arenas, Javaris Crittenton, Mike James
SG: Randy Foye, Nick Young, DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Caron Butler, Mike Miller, Dominic McGuire
PF: Antawn Jamison, Andray Blatche
C: Brendan Haywood, JaVale McGee, Francisco Oberto

The 2009-10 team is very guard heavy. Six of their fourteen players currently under contract are pure guards. Arenas is the starting point guard and is a lock to receive steady minutes, at least 35 per game, as long as he is healthy. He is obviously a great fantasy player when not being hindered by his surgically repaired knee (first round ceiling if healthy). Expect Gilbert to have a bounce back year this coming season after basically missing out on the previous two seasons due to injury.

This guy is a competitor and he wants to win, especially when LeBron James‘ Cavs are in town. Plus, he’s been working out with Tim Grover, who has helped guys like Dwayne Wade recover from injury. Hopefully he will be the guy who could drain threes from anywhere on the court and blow by a defender with ease.

If he is completely healthy I would expect Arenas to provide healthy numbers for his owners somewhere along the lines of 20.5 points per game on 43/80 percent shooting, 2.0 threes, 5.7 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 0.2 blocks and 3.0 turnovers.

The rest of the Wizard’s guards won’t hold as much value as Arenas, but some will still be fantasy relevant. Mike Miller (who can also play forward) should improve on the rather forgettable season last year. With plenty of other offensive options for defenses to worry about, Miller should get a good number of decent looks from the perimeter where he is not afraid to fire away.

Expect his three point percentage to rise from last year’s 37 percent mark back up to somewhere near his career average of 40 forty. Miller could average close to 12.0 points per game on 45/75 percent shooting, 2.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists with under a couple of turnovers.

Randy Foye should either start at shooting guard or be the first guard off the bench to backup Arenas. Foye had the best year of his career last year while playing big minutes for the woeful Timberwolves. Expect his production to be reduced this year as he will see fewer minutes in his reserve role. Although good in real life, depth is a fantasy killer as it means stiffer competition for the limited supply of minutes.

His ability to find playing time really rests upon the health of Arenas’ knee. If he is only getting around 20-25 minutes per night he may be worth a very late round selection in leagues of 12 teams or more. I expect Foye to have a much bigger impact on the Wizard’s win/loss column than he will in the fantasy world.

The other Wizard guards are most likely fantasy casualties of the recent trade and Arenas’ new-found health. Mike James and DeShawn Stevenson will see drastic minute reductions as well and should hold no fantasy value next season. Nick Young could see a major reduction from his 22.4 minutes he averaged last season, as his role was instant offfense off the bench.  He may not make it into Saunders’ eight man group next season. Beware.

Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison will continue to hold a lot of fantasy value next season. Jamison is pretty much a lock for 20/8 with a steal and close to two assists for good measure all on 45 percent shooting from the field and 35 percentfrom beyond the arc. He is getting older (he turned 33 this year) and one has to wonder when the drop-off in production will occur. However, the thing to remember is that Jamison is an old school gamer and competes night in and night out.

Butler’s fantasy relevance relies heavily on his health. He’s had an outstanding couple of fantasy seasons for the past few years now and should continue to do so as long as he can stay on the court. Caron missed fifteen games last year, 24 games in 2007-08 and 19 games in 2006-07. That is not exactly the “Cal Ripken Jr model of health” that the Wizards would hope for from one of the cornerstones of their franchise.

Butler has had the biggest work load placed on his shoulders the past two seasons as he attempted to carry the team’s offense in the wake of Arenas’ injuries. The heavy minutes combined with his penchant for taking contact really wore Butler down over the course of the season. The biggest knock on him the past few years was his absence during the final stretch of the fantasy season, when head-to-head owners needed him most.

If he stays healthy this year he will reward his fantasy owners handsomely, somewhere along the lines of 20.0 points per game on 46/85 percent shooting, 6.0 rebounds, 3.o assists, 1.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.7 turnover. He’ll also chip in a three pointer per game.

With all of the talent they now have in the Capitol, the Wizards will offer many servicable fantasy options, while undoubtedly improving on last season’s awful disappointing record.

Step aside Lebron James, the real king of the NBA is Tim Duncan. The fact of the matter is that no other active NBA player has had a bigger impact on the game than the Big Fundamental. The only other candidates even in consideration would  be former teammates Kobe Bryant or Shaquille O’Neal.

Take a look at the San Antonio Spurs’ record during the Duncan era. Granted, TD has had a solid supporting cast of role players and complimentary stars but the consistent success at a high level is remarkable. The other major factor at work during the Tim Duncan era is the outstanding coaching from Gregg Popovich.

Among active coaches, the only other coach who parallels Pops’ level of coaching is the Zen Master himself, Phil Jackson. Popvich’s biggest strength as a coach is his ability to maximize the production and effectiveness of his role players to support his franchise player and complimentary stars.

What really stands out is the high level of winning, consistent across Duncan’s career. The winning percentages by season range from 0.646 to 0.768. From a cumulative perspective, Duncan’s Spurs have won .703 of their games. Considering the fact that these are statistics spanning twelve seasons, it is really a remarkable feat.

Winning .703 percent of games is really good for any franchise in any given season (that translates to an average of 57.6 wins per season). Doing it consistently for over a decade is what makes it truly a remarkable feat. Not to mention the four rings they collected along with the winning seasons.

The credit really goes to both Duncan and Popovich, as their rise to mythical status will be perennially intertwined (Co-Kings?). In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Popovich retired when Duncan decides to throw in the towel. Pop has always had a maverick streak in him.

The numbers don’t lie. And the numbers say that the real kings of the NBA are located in San Antonio.

With little NBA news to report on these days other than Tuesday’’s release of the upcoming 2009-10 schedule, it’s time to take a look at the best remaining free agent point guard out there, Raymond Felton. With all due respect to Allen Iverson, Jason Williams and less respect to Jamaal Tinsley, Felton is the best point guard available without a long term deal.

After being selected fifth overall by Charlotte in the 2005 draft, Felton has played his entire career in a Bobcats uniform and is now looking to secure his future with the franchise. The problem is that the big-wigs in Charlotte don’t seem to be in a rush to lock up his services for the long term.

Felton was the first point guard taken in the draft after Chris Paul and Deron Williams, respectively, and has done a good job of running the point for the past four seasons for a young Bobcats team. While averaging just over 35 minutes per game, Felton has provided respectable but not jaw-dropping production for his team. His career averages are: 13.6 points on 39.9/78.5 percent shooting, 6.7 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 0.2 blocks and 2.7 turnovers.

The most glaring deficiency in his game is the 2.8 turnovers he averaged per game in ‘08-’09, putting him at 15th overall in that category. He also is a poor shooter going just under 40% from the field and a lowly 28% beyond the arc last year. On the bright side, he is a durable player who has missed only nine games in four seasons.

So why is Felton getting the cold shoulder from his club?

The Bobcats have publicly stated that one of their off-season priorities is to sign him to a long term extension. Failure to do so would mean Felton would become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2010, which could also be called the summer of LeBron James. The highly touted free agent class of 2010 will be loaded with many All Stars who are all seeking maximum deals during a period of impending salary cap reduction. Which means GMs will be less willing to spend the big bucks on free agents when facing a dollar-for-dollar penalty for every dollar spent over the luxury tax threshold.

After a meeting last month with Charlotte GM Rod Higgins, Felton’s agent Kevin Bradbury walked away a little disgruntled saying:

“We’re definitely not close as far as what we’re discussing and what we think fair market [value] is for Raymond… At this point I’m not as encouraged as I was a day ago or even a week ago, but that doesn’t mean that it can’t get done.”

Source: CBS Sports

Both sides appear to be interested in hammering out a long term deal for Felton. The sticking point is how much should a player like Felton should command. While Felton cannot be considered a top tier talent at the point guard position like his draft mates Paul and Williams, he is a reliable young guard with the ability to run a team for many years to come. His agent believes he should command more that just the mid-level exception ($5.58M in ‘08-’09) but how much more?

It will be interesting to see what type of contract a player of his value is worth in today’s troubled economy. It would be in Felton’s best interest to get an extension done now versus trying to hit the big payoff next summer amid a barrage of talent and not enough money to go around.

What will those crazy Bobcats and Hall of Fame Coach Larry “trade ‘em all” Brown do next?

They are a hard team to figure out. The team is currently up for sale and recently traded the franchise’s supposed cornerstone and first draft pick in franchise history, Emeka Okafor, to New Orleans for Tyson Chandler and his bum toe. It would be surprising but not shocking if the Cats decided not to tender an offer to Felton and allowed him to play out his remaining contract and enter unrestricted free agency.

If Felton walked, they would be forced to turn over the keys to the driver’s seat to second year guard D.J. Augustin. That would seem like a huge gamble to let your starting point guard walk and place all of the burden on young Augustin, but hey, this is the Bobcats we are talking about here (a.k.a the New Memphis).