Basketball Free For All

Week 11 was dominated by the Gilbert Arenas saga finally coming to a head, leaving owners with tough decisions to make about whether to hold or fold their Agent Zero hand. More on that dilemma and the fantasy fallout below. Beyond that, we saw Danny Granger and Troy Murphy return to the starting lineup for the Pacers, altering the fantasy landscape in Indy for the thousandth time this season. Along with the Golden State Warriors, the Pacers have been one of the most unpredictable fantasy teams so far this season.

Season Tracker

The 2009-10 season is 44 percent complete.

Week 12 Schedules

Four Games: DET, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, NOR, NYK, OKC, PHX, SAS, UTA, WAS

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, ORL, PHI, SAC, TOR

Two Games: NJN, POR

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 38%) For some inexplicable reason, Hinrich is still under the 40% ownership threshold despite being moved into the starting unit recently. In his eight starts this season, Hinrich averaged 12.1 points on .412/.769 percent shooting, 2.1 threes, 4.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Another key statistic to look at with Captain Kirk is his three point percentage, as the Bulls are desperate for outside shooting. As a reserve, he has shot a pedestrian .322 percent from downtown. As a starter, he has shot an impressive .459 from long range. Hinrich deserves pretty much universal roster consideration.

Erick Dampier (C – 37%) For the entire season, Dampier is putting up top-100 value while providing decent production for a third or fourth string center. His season averages are 8.0 points on .667/.582 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.4 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 turnovers. Dampier is a four category specialist (FG%, REB, BLK, TOs) while being a negative in the remaining five categories. He finally appears to be getting healthy again after having to deal with “wear-and-tear” of the left knee. Give Damp a go if you are looking for traditional big man stats and can handle his low scoring.

Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 27%) There has been widespread speculation that Gomes would be moved into Minnesota’s starting five sometime relatively soon. Regardless of whether or not he is starting, Ryan should get enough burn to provide fantasy value, especially for those looking for decent scoring off the waiver wire. Over the past two games, Gomes has averaged 15.0 points on .458/.875 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Gomes, while normally primarily simply a scorer, has shown flashes of stat-stuffing. Add Ryan if you have a dropable player to see if he can improve upon his recent strong play.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 21%) Some players just don’t get much respect, whether it be in real life or in fantasy basketball. Apparently, Rasual Butler is one of those players as his actual value and ownership percentage are definitely out of whack. Over the past two weeks, a period that saw Butler play in six games and average over 34 minutes per game, he posted top-50 value. During that period Rasual averaged 12.8 points on .467/.857 percent shooting, 2.5 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. Butler is a nice glue guy, providing a nice boost in threes on low turnovers while also providing decent blocks for a guard-eligible player.

Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 21%) Another player that has had a nice run over the past two weeks is Matt Barnes. You may recall Barnes being featured in last week’s preview article by my distinguished colleague, RedHopeful. Pretty much everything Oleh said then still stands. Over the past two weeks, Matt has averaged 13.4 points on .600/.778 percent shooting,1.1 threes, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.4 turnovers.

Rafer Alston (PG – 18%) Alston has to feel like the luckiest player in the NBA right now; it is an absolute certainty. Rafer was waived by the league’s worst team, the 3-33 New Jersey Nets, and signed with the 18-16 Miami Heat, who are currently the fifth best team in the East. In his first game in a Heat uniform (this season), he immediatley leap-frogged both Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers and joined the starting unit. Skip is in line for big minutes for the Heat and should be a good choice for threes, assists and steals if you can handle his offensive field goal percentage.

Ronny Turiaf (PF/C – 6%) It’s always a gamble recommending any Golden State Warrior these days but Turiaf feels like a very strong player for a couple of reasons. First, Anthony “Everyone’s Favorite Sleeper” Randolph recently went down with an ankle injury with no official timetable released yet. However, the injury appears to be relatively serious so we can assume he’ll miss all of this week’s games. Second, fellow big man Andris Biedrins has struggled getting up to speed since returning from his groin injury that sidelined him for most of the season. By default, Turiaf becomes one of the Warriors primary big men in the rotation and he should be an excellent source of blocks off the wire.

Watch List

J.J. Redick (PG/SG – 16%) With Vince Carter out with an injured shoulder, Redick immediately gets upgraded to watch list status. In Carter’s absence, Redick posted a strong line against the Atlanta Hawks dropping 17 points on .583 percent shooting, 3 threes, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. He has even been praised by Coach Stan Van Gundy recently for his play throughout the entire season. In fact, Redick has been really solid over the past four games seeing over 28 minutes per and averaging 16.5 points on .422/.895 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.5 turnovers.

Flip Murray (SG – 5%) If you are looking for cheap scoring off the waiver wire, there may not be a better option out there than Murray. RIght now, Flip is locked-in and playing excellent basketball for the Bobcats. Over the past week, Ronald is ranked well inside of the top fifty players averaging 17.3 points on .550/.933 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.5 turnovers in four games. His percentages are excellent, making his scoring and threes that much more valuable.

A.J. Price (PG/SG – 1%) A.J. officially proved that he belonged in this league after being selected in the second round of this season’s draft. Price set multiple career-highs against the Thunder on Saturday including minutes played, points scored and threes made. In that watershed game, Price posted 23 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 3 threes, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, o blocks and 2 turnovers. With the Pacers going nowhere this season and both Earl Watson and T.J. Ford playing themselves out of the rotation, Price is poised to carve himself a nice niche for the Pacers.

Deep League Special

Donte Greene (SG/SF – 4%) Greene’s window of opportunity is rapidly closing. With Kevin Martin due back sometime relatively soon, Greene will likely take a hit in touches, minutes and production. Thus, Donte should only be viewed as a short-term band-aid in deeper leagues. Over the past two weeks, he has put up top-100 value, making him an extremely valuable pickup in deep formats. In that same span, he averaged11.4 points on .489/1.00 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.0 turnovers.

Keyon Dooling (PG – 2%) At this point in his career, Dooling is a proven commodity, with a decade of experience in the Association. Playing for a relatively young and inconsistent team, he is a veteran presence on and off the court. While he is still rounding into game shape after having offseason hip surgery, Dooling finally showed signs of life recently when he dropped 21 points on the Hornets on Friday. His career per-36 minute stats are 13.3 points on .420/.798 percent shooting, 1.o threes, 2.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.1 turnovers and are a good guide if Dooling were to consistently get big minutes either due to injury of a teammate or simply due to the inconsistent play of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts.

Jon Brockman (SF/PF – 1%) If awesome nicknames were a fantasy category, the Brockness Monster would be a category carrier. But alas, we are left with having to rely on actual production on the basketball court. In that respect, Brockman’s toughness and football-like build have translated to him being an absolute beast on the boards and earning his fresh nickname (12.8 rebounds per-36 minutes). Recently, Brockman even got the starting nod against Denver pushing teammate and general fantasy disappointment Spencer Hawes to the bench. Grab the rebounding monster if you need help on the glass.

Cut List

Larry Hughes (SG/SF – 39%) The Knicks have won three of their last four games. Hughes has seen four consecutive DNP-CDs. Coincidence? I think not. Larry, welcome to Coach Mike D’Antoni’s dog house. Make yourself comfortable; you’re gonna be here a while.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 20%) It is hard to recommend a player for cutting who posted such nice fantasy value earlier in the season. However, barring a trade involving either Elton Brand or Samuel Dalembert, Speights is most likely going to be without fantasy value. If you want further proof that his run is (for now) over, check out his minute totals for his past four games: 6:22; 9:51; 12:01 and 11:11.

Luther Head (PG/SG – 12%) What a difference a week can make. Last week, he was on our Add List. This week he is on our Cut List. That is Luther Head’s career in a nutshell.

Buy Low

Caron Butler (SG/SF – 98%) With Agent Zero suspended indefinitely, Butler has moved up the food chain a notch in Washington. Butler’s best seasons of fantasy value have come with Arenas on the sidelines so there is hope to believe that he will resume his productive ways of the past (top five in per game value in 2007-08 when Arenas only played 13 games; top 30 in per game in 2008-09 when Arenas only played two games). At this point in the season, Butler has posted only top-75 value so it is a decent bet that he will have a much better second half of the season with Arenas most like done for the year.

Pau Gasol (PF/C – 99%) It may be hard to consider top ten player a buy low but that is exactly the case with Pau. Having missed a decent number of games this season with hamstring injuries on both legs, many owners are getting tired of the Lakers’ kid glove treatment of Gasol. When owners are frustrated or are struggling in the standings, you can often get a good deal for the right player. Throw out a solid second-round talent for Pau and see if the other owner bites. You may end up with one of the best big men in both fantasy and in real life.

Sell High

Samuel Dalembert (C – 64%) The problem with selling high is that nobody wants to do it because owning a hot player is so much fun. It’s why we play fantasy sports. However, with a guy like Sammie, if you can get enough value for him you have to pull the trigger. Over the past two weeks, Dally has been a top five talent. Stop and let that sink in. TOP FIVE. During that span, he has averaged 10.9 points on .667/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 3.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. He will never be able to keep this pace up for the rest of the season, especially not with Eddie Jordan waiting in the wings to screw everything up. SD is the qunitessential sell high right now.

Lamar Odom (SF/PF – 89%) With Pau out for at least one more game, your window to move Odom for maximum value is limited. Over the past week, Odom has been positively beastly, putting up a rugged 14.0 points on .548/.700 percent shooting, 0.8 threes, 15.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.0 turnover. Wow. In that span of four games, Odom has been a top ten player in per game value so throw out some trade offers and see if you can get a bona fide stud in return for Mr. Kardashian.

Mystery Man

Gilbert Arenas (PG – 73%) At only 73 percent ownership, the Great Arenas Exodus of 2010 has begun. Let’s face it, the chances of Gilbert playing again this season are slim. However, it is not so cut and dried as to whether he should be simply kicked to the curb; thus, Agent Zero is this week’s Mystery Man. In standard sized, non-keeper, head-to-head leagues Arenas can probably be safely dropped at this point. In roto leagues, where it is easier to carry dead weight, it probably makes sense to stick it out with Gil for a bit until we have more concrete timelines. In deeper formats, it makes more sense to hang on to Gibert if your team can afford to maintain a dead roster spot. Finally, in keeper and dynasty formats, dropping Arenas is not recommended until we hear exactly how harsh his final punsihment will be. Gilbert’s future with the Wizards and the League is truly a mystery at this point so weigh your options carefully before you decide to part ways with this dynamic guard.

It wasn’t all that long ago that fans and analysts alike praised the outstanding play of the Lakers’ bench players, dubbed them the “Bench Mob” and put them among the league’s elite reserve units. This season, the Bench Mob was supposed to continue the tradition of wreaking havoc on opposing teams’ second units while spelling starters Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Ron Artest and Derek Fisher and maintaining or extending leads while the Lakers attempt to defend their title.

Over the past few years, the Bench Mob has been known for being aggressive during their stints on the court, sporting the swagger of a starting unit when they enter a game. The following account from the 2007-08 season summarizes the rise of L.A.’s Bench Mob and the respect they garnered.

A worthy next-generation supporting cast has suddenly appeared in the most appropriate of cities — Los Angeles — where a feisty band of extras serves at the pleasure of a genuine leading man. The Lakers’ Kobe Bryant, as Jordan once did, enriches these lesser lights figuratively (by the grandeur of his talent) and literally (backup point guard Jordan Farmar snagged a Louis Vuitton bag for Christmas), and so they aid him utterly and enthusiastically, while also making sure that their walk-on moments are duly recorded. “If we win a championship,” says reserve guard Sasha Vujacic, “we know it will be mainly because of Kobe. But we will have something to say about it too.”

Source: Jack McCallum, Sports Illustrated

Oh, how times have changed.

That era seems like a distant memory, as the 2009-10 version of the Bench Mob has been ineffective at best and downright detrimental at worst. Before looking at the numbers, let’s meet the Bench Mob first and see who has come and gone over the years.

Meet the Mob

When the Lakers are at full strength this season, the following players are the Lakers’ bench players (listed in descending order according to minutes played this season): Lamar Odom, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Josh Powell, D.J. Mbenga, Adam Morrison and Luke Walton (although Walton has been injured for most of the season with a bum back). If we limit the Lakers’ rotation to only ten guys, the top five bench players are Odom, Brown, Farmar, Vujacic and Powell.

From last season’s Championship squad, the Bench Mob’s top five consisted of Trevor Ariza, Vujacic, Farmar, Walton and Vladimir Radmanovic. From the 2007-08 version, it was Walton, Farmar, Vlad-Rad, Ronny Turiaf and Vujacic. While there has been some turnover with the Bench Mob, it is also clear that there have been some constants with the Bench Mob (Farmar, Vujacic, Walton being the mainstays) making year-to-year comparisons interesting, if not totally legitimate.

With that in mind, the one thing can be analyzed independently of the year-to-year comparisons is the Bench Mob’s performance on the court so far this season.

Bench Mob Production, 2009-10

Taking a look at bench production for this season, the numbers point to the Lakers’ Bench Mob being one of the weaker in the League, no matter how you choose to evaluate their performance. In nearly every category (turnovers being the main exception), the Bench Mob provides below average production relative to the other 29 benches in the League.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Data Source: Hoops Stats

When scrolling down the list, what strikes you most about this version of the Lakers’ Bench Mob is how they excel at nothing and are average to downright pitiful in almost every respect. For a major market team that leads the league in payroll, this should be absolutely unacceptable from their bench players. At the very least, they should excel (i.e. be in the top three) in a few categories and should be average in most others.

All of the categories listed in the table above are self explanatory except for Efficiency, which is Hoops Stats’ simple means of comparing the overall statistical impact of a team based upon numbers available in the standard box score. The comparison can either be cumulative or on a game-by-game basis. The formula itself is Efficiency = ((PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK) – ((FGA – FGM) + (FTA – FTM) + TOV)). By no means is this the perfect system for comparing teams (problems such as it values points/rebounds/assists/steals/blocks equally, does not account for pace, etc.), but it is a quick and dirty, but objective, way of measuring on court performance.

So now focusing on Efficiency, which can be thought of as a method of comparing the total impact of the bench unit, the Lakers are 24th in the League. If you compare the Bench Mob’s Efficiency rating of 29.3 to their opponents’ bench Efficiency rating of 38.0, you get a differential of -8.7. Compare this efficiency differential to prior seasons and you see how the Bench Mob has fallen off this season (2007-08: net efficiency of 0.9th good for 13th overall; 2008-09: net efficiency of 2.1 good for 9th overall). In the prior two seasons, the Lakers’ bench has had a positive impact for the team while on the floor. This season, the Bench Mob has been a net loss for the Lakers relative to other teams’ bench production. Simple as that.

Looking at the entire season’s numbers, the Bench Mob has clearly not been an elite bench unit for the defending world champs. But what kind of an impact does the bench have on the Lakers’ overall success?

A Closer Look: Game-by-Game Production

Taking Hoops Stats’ Efficiency rating one step further, we can break the Bench Mob’s success (and failure) down to a game-by-game basis. When looking at a game-by-game perspective, the Bench Mob is 11-22 in the Efficiency rating battle, meaning that the Lakers have had a greater Efficiency rating (using the same formula listed above) than their opponent’s bench 11 times and a lesser rating 22 times.

In the 11 games in which the Lakers bench won their matchups, the Lakers are 10-1 for a .909 winning percentage. In the 22 games in which the Lakers bench lost their matchups, the Lakers are 17-5 for a .773 winning percentage. The difference is startling. If you think of each of the two winning percentages relative to their overall winning percentage of .818 (27-6), the difference is even more pronounced. When the bench loses the Efficiency battle, it reduces the Lakers’ chance of victory from .818 to .773, for a net loss of -0.45 winning percentage. When the Bench Mob wins the Efficiency front, it boosts their chances to of picking up a W from .818 to a staggering .909, for a net gain of .091 winning percentage relative to the average.

Thus, the Lakers’ bench play affects their ability to win basketball games in a very significant and tangible way.

Payroll v. Production

As alluded to earlier, the Lakers’ salary situation makes their average (or poor, depending upon your perspective) bench play less palatable. The Lakers have the biggest payroll in the league, coming in at a whopping $91,341,066 (salary statistics via Sham Sports). The bench represents $28,452,691 of Los Angeles’ total salary, which is 31 percent of the team’s total salary. In a vacuum, the Lakers’ bench seems to be a decent bargain but a point of comparison would probably provide some insight.

For some perspective, let’s see how the Bench Mob stacks up against the League’s best bench, again measured in terms of net Efficiency. The San Antonio Spurs’ bench is far and away the Association’s best bench, with a net efficiency gain of +21.4 . For more perspective, the next most productive bench is Cleveland’s with a +11.3 so it is safe to say that the Spurs’ bench is the gold standard. In terms of salary, the Spurs bench players account for 32 percent of their total salary. In relative terms, the Spurs are spending the same ratio of their total amount of  team salary on their bench but getting a much better return on their investment. In absolute terms, it’s no contest.

Conclusion

The Lakers’ Bench Mob has been relatively pedestrian this season and has certainly been their weakest bench in three years. They’ve lost the aggressive brand of arrogance past Bench Mob versions have exhibited while on the floor in both crunch time and garbage time. The bench is critical to the any team’s success in the NBA but even more so to a team that is defending a title and gearing up for a deep postseason run. Just imagine if this team had San Antonio’s bench instead of their own! However, this Lakers team doesn’t need the League’s best bench to defend their title — they just need a bench that is slightly above average due to their league-leading starting five.

While their cumulative impact has been disappointing thus far this season, there is some hope for the Lakers faithful. On Sunday, the Lakers routed the Dallas Mavericks with the bench contributing a season-high 66 points and Jordan Farmar tying his career-high of 24 points. This game had the feel of a turning point for the Bench Mob, a game in which the regain their confidence and swagger. If that is the case, the Lakers’ chance of repeating will be infinitely greater than if their early-season woes continue.

Coming into this NBA season, the New Jersey Net’s expectations were low.  However, no one expected them to challenge ineptitude of historic proportions.  The Nets recent loss to the Dallas Mavericks resulted in being associated with the distinct dishonor of the worst start by any franchise in NBA history.  Worse than any expansion team or some historical bad franchise like the Clippers.  Even though they’ve recently broken through with a win, will putting their worst leg(s) forward hurt the team beyond this season?

Just How Bad Have Things Been?

To put it bluntly, the Nets have been awful.  They have the worst offensive rating (94.7), the worst points per game (87.60), the worst FG% (41.0) and the worst assists (16.25).  Most of their losses haven’t even been close as their point differential stands a little over 10 points per game (only Minnesota is worse).

To be fair, at one point they only had one original starter available for a period of time.  Devin Harris, Yi Jianlian, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Courtney Lee have all missed time for various aliments.  One of these players, CDR, was the first NBA player infected with the swine flu.  Prior to their first win against Charlotte, this foursome had missed 34 games out of a possible 72.  Don’t forget that it takes time to get back into the swing of things such as chemistry and conditioning.

Can’t also discount they’ve had some key role players miss the majority of the season:  Tony Battie, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes and Eduardo Najera.  Without a solid bench, it’s no wonder this patchwork team has been tragic against the rest of the NBA.  The New Jersey Nets probably wish they had as many healthy legs as their cheerleaders.

Did Management Stoke the Fire?

Coming into the season, the Nets had no established veterans – star or even borderline.  Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter had all been traded away.  However, a number of followers and writers proclaimed this was a good thing.  New Jersey had some promising young talent including a potentially fantastic PG and C.  More importantly, they would have about 25 million in available cap space for 2010.  As you’re probably aware, there are some fantastic names that may be available in free agency including Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire.

There does lie a problem with this thinking – it’s a year away.  For 2009, most experts predicted they’d finish at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.  Nothing new here as I’m sure most of us felt the same.  With obvious turmoil looming, why then was Lawrence Frank fired?

I guess it’s Lawrence’s fault that they wanted to go young and [clear] cap space and that everybody got hurt,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said Sunday night, before his team beat another one that is dangerously walking the 2010 tightrope, the Knicks.  “Maybe he was banging them up in practice, taking a baseball bat to them or something.  I just know that with the lineups he’s had to put on the floor, I don’t think any coach would’ve done anything better than he’s done.”

Source:  CBS Sports

Pretty hard to disagree with Stan’s assessment when considering the roster and all the injuries they’ve had to deal with thusfar.  However, were there issues going on out of the public eye?  Apparently, yes.

Sources said Nets management had come to believe that Frank had lost much of the team, a fact that has played out in losses to Denver and Sacramento in the past week. Once the Nets played so poorly against the Kings – believed to be the most winnable game on the trip – management decided it could no longer go on with Frank as coach.

Despite the return of point guard Devin Harris and shooting guard Courtney Lee, the Nets have played long stretches of uninspired basketball. “Most of the guys have tuned him out,” one source with direct knowledge of the locker room environment said. “This isn’t all Lawrence’s fault, but everyone knows that this can’t go on anymore.”

Source: Adrian Wojnarowski

Beat writers close to the Nets also observed that Frank and Devin Harris were not seeing eye to eye.

“In the times I’ve been here, I’ve been so (angry) because of a lack of effort,” Frank said last week. “But these guys are giving virtually everything they’ve got.”

But they didn’t give him the effort lately and he had to go. Now, the next coach will have to coax more team play out of Devin Harris, who had problems with Frank’s controlling style and has gained the reputation of being a solo act.

“Last year we had Vince Carter and he was a positive influence on the young guys,” said one team official. “But he’s not here, and it hurts because the coach and point guard are not on the same page.”

Source:  Mitch Lawrence

Consequently, it’s not surprising the Nets let Frank go.  At least, they fired him before they set the all-time record so that his name wouldn’t have to be associated with it.

Therefore, on the surface, it would seem they’ve made the correct moves.  There is one thing still bothering me though.  Did they consider the consequences if this team loses too many games?

Will a really bad record have long term effects?

We’ll examine two aspects to gauge possible long term affect:

1) How historically poor teams fare with rosters primarily consisting of talented youth in following years.

2) How many big time free agents signed with historically bad teams in following seasons.

1) First, we’ll examine how promising teams reacted to severely disappointing seasons.  Specifically, we’ll look at the 1993-94 Dallas Mavericks, 1999-00 Chicago Bulls and the 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers.  These teams were chosen because they were all in the midst of serious rebuilding with promising youth with a significant stretch of poor play.

The 1993-94 Mavericks team finished with a 13-69 record, but they were best known for posting a 2-39 record (OUCH) through the midpoint of the season.  The team wasn’t completely devoid of talent as they had two promising but young 19 point scorers in Jim Jackson and Jamal Mashburn.  So how dire did it get?

You hear about it and read about it, but words cannot really describe the hopelessness down here. At one point last night, the Dallas Mavericks called a 20-second timeout and spent a good 15 seconds trudging back to the huddle, defeated.

At courtside, owner Donald Carter sat in his hideous shirt and his jeans and his 10-gallon hat, cheering his team wildly while it was 15 down. The latest news? Jimmy Jackson says he’ll never, ever, EVER sign with the Mavs, no matter how many faxes they send.

Source:  Encyclopedia.com

Well Jim ended up staying (contracts will do that to you), but the Mavericks continued to flounder by averaging close to a 27-55 record the next 4 years.  This is impressive despite drafting win-producer Jason Kidd.  It seemed that the 3 J’s were destined to be part of a great future, but this wasn’t the case.  In 1996-97, all three were traded away as the team decided to go in a new direction under Don Nelson.

The 1999-00 Chicago Bulls finished with a 17-65 record, a few seasons removed from the Jordan era.  The team did have some promising rookies in Elton Brand and Ron Artest while bringing in John Starks and Bruce Bowen after trading away Toni Kukoc during the season.  The following season the Bulls drafted/acquired Brad Miller, Jamal Crawford, Marcus Fizer and Ron Mercer, but this time they won only 15 games including losing a franchise worst 21 straight games on the road.

Overall, the promise never amounted to anything as the team averaged a 22-60 during the four year stretch after the 1999-2000 season.  The overriding theme seemed to be concentrating on youth without enough experience as they fell into a pattern gambling on youth that failed to pan out including Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler and Jay Williams.

The 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers were able to collect some talent after two horrendous years.  However, Lamar Odom, Derek Anderson, Maurice Taylor and Michael Olowokandi only managed 15 wins while starting the season with a then NBA record of 17 straight losses.

On paper, this team’s untapped talent and balance — four players averaging more than 13 points per game, and arguably the largest collection of “he’s-got-great-upside” players — belies its results.

Source: NBA.com

In the following years, they garnered an impressive amount of talent on paper: Darius Miles, Quentin Richardson, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand and Andre Miller.  Guess what, all these young guys managed to contribute an average W/L record of 31-51 the following four years.

Now, there have been some deviations from the norm when franchises have decided to completely entrust their future in youth.  Namely, the Portland Trail Blazers come to mind.  After blowing up the Jail Blazers and some troubling players the next few years, they appear to be ready to challenge the league’s best for years to come.  However, it would appear it takes a special bunch of players like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge among others to make it happen.

Therefore, where does this leave the current Nets?  Coming into this year, there were no illusions, but there was hope that the Nets had put together a solid young core.  However, Dave Berri of The Wages of Win Journal made an interesting analysis of the Net’s franchise.  Basically, when Jason Kidd has not been on their team, they’ve been a bad team and his predictions don’t have anything changing that.

In addition, their terrible start is already affecting their morale:

“We don’t have any heart,” Chris Douglas-Roberts, the second-year guard, said. “It’s like we’re laying down. Weak. It’s a sign of weakness.”

Douglas-Roberts said the word was out on his team: “All you got to do is come out, punch them in the mouth and they’ll give up and run with their tail between their legs.”

Although the Nets were decimated by injuries early in the streak, they are nearly back to whole. Yet the fight they briefly showed in close defeats in early November is nonexistent.

“The spirit’s been broken a little bit,” said guard Devin Harris, the Nets’ lone All-Star.

Source:  New York Times

Uh-oh – hopefully, this is just a fleeting attitude and the Nets can put together a lot of solid performances.  Otherwise, you’ve got to believe they’ll continue to be tested mentally as other historically bad teams and it will take all their effort to stay together and focused on a common goal.

2) A second method of attempting to change years of bad fortune is through free agency.  A key signing or two could significantly change a team’s outlook.  However, there are multiple obstacles to this theory.  Poorly performing teams seem to have trouble acquiring or keeping top talent.

Let’s look at the top 30 players by salary (all over $14M). 15 of them are on teams that had over a .600 win% (50+ wins), while just 3 of them are on sub-.400 teams. In other words, the most successful teams employed 1.67 of these elite players on average, while the worst teams employed just 0.375 elite players.

Source: Hawkonomics

These statistics were compiled from last year’s payroll and performance.  One can gleam two likely scenarios for this disparity.  One, top players usually have choices in their destination; thus, they choose to play for a winning team that gives them a shot for a championship.  Two, poor performing teams usually suffer from the lack of capital necessary to sign major free agents.  Media outlets aren’t interested to pay top dollar to carry broadcasts while businesses and fans aren’t interested in sinking money for tickets, suites and other endeavors.

In one of the other historically bad teams we analyzed, the Chicago Bulls attempted to go the free agency route:

Remember, the summer of 2000 was supposed to be it. Actually, scratch that, Chicago had big designs on the summer of 1999, if we’re honest. And, if we’re to be completely accurate, the summer of 1998 was supposed to see all sorts of free agents flock to Chicago to eat up the team’s cap space. The summer of 1998 didn’t happen, for anyone. GM Jerry Krause saw the writing on the wall when most FAs signed with their old teams for more money in the truncated post-lockout offseason, and after talking up the 1999 offseason, he decided to make a few more cap-clearing moves and parlay that money (and two lottery picks) to the 2000 offseason.

Source:  ChicagoNow

As we can observe, the free agency route failed the post-Jordan Bulls.  Players obviously had no desire to come to Chicago despite the apparent available capital.  Therefore, what is there to ensure the same won’t happen to the Nets?  They’re off to a horrendous start, have historically been a well below average team and have put all their faith into a roster comprised of largely unproven young players.

However, the Nets do have two things in their favor.  First, it appears the long proposed move to Brooklyn will definitely happen.  Second, the Nets also have a new principal owner – Mikhail Prokhorov – one of the wealthiest men in the world.  Playing in the most dynamic sports city in American coupled with the deepest pockets can potentially bring in a top player or two.

They want a basketball team in Brooklyn – but not this one.

After the New Jersey Nets broke the record Wednesday night for starting an NBA season with the most consecutive losses – 18 – some borough sports fans had a message for owner Bruce Ratner as he tries to bring the team to Brooklyn: Start winning or don’t bother.

“I don’t want an 0-and-18 team coming to New York, especially to Brooklyn,” said Assane Ethols, 21, a Canarsie security guard. “It’s go hard or go home here.”

Source:  New York Daily News

It looks like a lot DOES ride on this season so let’s hope the current group starts playing better.

With the top two seeds still alive and kicking in the Western Conference, both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets avoided upsets on their way to the Western Conference Finals. However, both teams took divergent routes this season to arrive at the same destination; the doorstep of the Promised Land.

For the Lakers, it seems as though their season was predestined from the moment training camp began. Kobe Bryant and company finished the season with the second best record in the league, second only to Eastern Conference power house, the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Lakers also sported high profile wins against some of the toughest competition this season and stole a game from the Cavs at the Q (39-2 record at home this season, with the Lakers being the only team able to dethrone the King at home;  The Philadelphia 76′ers beat the Cavaliers at home in the final game of the season by one point with Lebron James in street clothes).

For the Nuggets, the season started ominously with the front office kicking Marcus Camby to the curb for peanuts (well, salary cap relief). At that time, the Nuggets faithful were despairing the loss of their defensive anchor for nothing in return. Little did they know that the front office had an ace up their sleeve and would pull-off one of the best trades since the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol from Memphis last season.

In what has proven to be a franchise-altering move, the Nuggets shipped out Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess (who was ultimately waived and re-signed with Detroit for a better shot at winning a title… whoops). Since that time, the Nuggets have gone from possible lottery team to legitimate championship contender. If Allen Iverson truly is the Answer, the Denver Nuggets certainly weren’t interested in finding out what the question was. In contrast to the Lakers, this team has had to prove the doubters wrong every step of the way on their journey to being one of the last four teams standing.

So how do these two teams compare to one another?

Tale of the Tape: The Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 65-17
W-L%: .793
Rank: 2nd

The Lakers played consistently good basketball throughout the course of the regular season. Outside of Laker Nation, the Lakers probably didn’t get quite of enough credit for their accomplishments this season with Lebron James, and to a lesser extent Dwayne Wade and the Celtics’ Big Three garnering most of the media’s attention. They also maintained the best record in the West even with Andrew Bynum missing 32 games leading up to the playoffs.

Pace: 94.4, 5th
O-Rating: 112.7, 3rd
D-Rating: 104.6, 6th
Differential: +8.1 (O-Rating minus D-Rating)

Of the numerous basketball cliches out there, one in particular describes this Lakers team when they are firing on all cylinders. It is the well known saying that ‘their defense creates their offense.’  But for this Lakers squad it really holds true, with Trevor Ariza leading the charge (and earning himself a nice raise in the process going into free agency this season). Ariza, who is the Lakers’ defense personified, gets into the passing lanes, pushes the tempo and finishes way above the rim without ever giving up on a play. When Ariza and the Lakers play inspired basketball, they are really an exciting team to watch.

Offensively, you cannot overlook three time champion and former MVP Kobe Bryant. He draws a huge amount of attention from opposing teams’ defenses and makes life much easier for his teammates to get high-percentage looks. At the same time though, last season’s key acquisition, Pau Gasol, has made it much easier for Bryant to get good looks as well. Having Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum as your backup weapons makes the Lakers a very dangerous team. Add in great perimeter shooting and you have a team that punishes you for doubling to try and stop Bryant. They truly make you pick your poison.

First Round, v. UTA: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. HOU: 4-3

In the first round of the playoffs, the Lakers took care of business fairly efficiently in taking five games to dispatch of the Utah Jazz. However, the conference semifinals provided the Lakers with a much bigger challenge in the Tracy McGrady-less Houston Rockets. When Yao Ming went down for the season after game three, the Lakers and everyone else in the world counted the young and injured team out of the running.

The trouble for the Lakers was that the Rockets didn’t get the memo that everyone else in the world got that the series was over and they played like their (playoff) lives depended on it.  The simple fact that it took the Lakers seven games to move past the Rockets (refer to Lebron James, Mo Williams and the rest of the Cavs to see what a championship team truly looks like) has given legitimacy to the argument that this team is mentally focused enought to win a championship. However the 2007-08 Celtics didn’t exactly cruise to victory against the Hawks or Cavaliers in the first two rounds of the playoffs either.

Tale of the Tape: The Denver Nuggets

Record: 54-28
W-L%: .659
Rank: 5th

The Nuggets played like an entirely different team this season by both addition by subtraction and also by, well, addition. The Nuggets gained by subtracting Allen Iverson, who is the epitome of a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer in decline. Iverson is unwilling to admit that he can no longer carry a team on his back and unable to accept any lesser role. This is probably the ultimate chemistry killer in the locker room. Billups, in an absolute contrast to AI, is the consummate professional and a savvy, championship proven veteran (they don’t call him Mr. Big Shot for nothing). You replace an undersized and disgruntled shoot-first point guard with a professional, pass-first floor general who demands a commitment to defense from his teammates and you have a vastly improved Nuggets squad this year.

Pace: 94.3, 6th
O-Rating: 110.4, 7th
D-Rating: 106.8, 8th
Differential: +3.6

Much like the Lakers, the Nuggets play high tempo basketball and especially push the ball and force the issue on their home court. Defensively, both Nene and Kenyon Martin play physical defense in the paint and tend to force jump shooting big men like Dirk Nowitzki out of their element (although to Dirk’s credit he played phenomenal basketball against Denver in the Western Conference Semifinals). What really stands out when looking over this Denver Nuggets squad is that they played great team defense, which is exactly what they’ll need to do to try and limit Kobe Bryant. Dahntay Jones, despite earning minutes from George Karl based on his perimeter defense, is simply over-matched against Bryant. It must be a concentrated and carefully executed five man strategy if you hope to stop the Black Mamba.

Offensively, this team is a true partnership with Billups and Carmelo Anthony sharing the leadership onus for this team. Billups calls the plays and initiates the offense while Melo is the finisher. Off the bench, J.R. Smith provides instant fire and has matured from playing alongside Billups (although he is still J.R. Smith so keep that in mind). He is prone to occasionally taking ill-advised jumpers or pull-up threes. But when this guy is on, he can absolutely make it rain. Smith is the true X-Factor for the Nuggets offense.

First Round, v. NOH: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. DAL: 4-1

Melo could not being player better basketball this postseason (27.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists on 48/45/83 percent shooting). Him and Dirk really battled last series with Anthony rising to the challenge and hitting big baskets when they mattered most. Chauncey Billups is right there alongside Melo in terms of playoff production (22.1 points, 7.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds on 49/54/96 percent shooting) and impact on ball games. As a result, the Nuggets made quick work of both the Hornets and the Mavericks along the way.

Regular Season Matchups

The Lakers and Nuggets played four regular season games this year, with the Lakers holding the 3-1 advantage. But upon closer examination, the team’s head-to-head play is not so clear-cut.

• Game One: 11/01/08. Lakers 104, Nuggets 97 (No Billups).
• Game Two: 11/21/08. Nuggets 90, Lakers 104.
• Game Three: 02/27/09. Lakers 79, Nuggets 90 (No Bynum).
• Game Four: 04/09/09. Nuggets 102, Lakers 116.

One of the Lakers’ three wins came against an Iverson-led Nuggets team, which, as discussed earlier, is essentially a different team. Empty win, Lakers 0-0. The second Lakers win was played out by two teams at full strength. Lakers 1-0. The third game involves a Bynum-less Lakers team, which is a different team as well. Lakers 1-0. The fourth and final game was again played out at full strength and again resulted in a Lakers win. Lakers 2-0.

Slam dunk, the Lakers are going to sweep the Nuggets in this series then, right? Not so fast. If you look at regular season games one through four again, paying particular attention to home court (the second team listed above was the home team), the Lakers two wins at full strength were both at the Staples Center. The two games that were thrown out for missing key players both occurred in Denver, where Denver is much more likely to play better basketball. While not providing hard evidence in favor of Denver winning the series, these few games definitely don’t give me any reason to count out the Denver Nuggets yet.

Position Battles

Point Guard: Advantage Nuggets. Hands down, and it’s not even close. Billups is a vastly superior floor general to Derek Fisher, although Billups is a better defensive assignment for Fish than Aaron Brooks proved to be last series. Fisher was absolutely embarrassed at times by Brooks’ speed and looked his age (34). Not to take anything away from Fisher, who is a great piece for the Lakers, but  he is clearly overmatched here.

Shooting Guard: Advantage Lakers. Hands down, and it’s not even close (again). I’m sorry but Bryant is better than Dahntay Jones and J.R. Smith combined. You better hope that Smith is ready to play lock-down defense, because Jones will be into early foul trouble in at least a couple of games in this series. One of the top five players on the planet and a nightmare to guard.

Small Forward: Advantage Nuggets. Again, not to take anything away from Trevor Ariza, but Anthony is clearly the better player. Ariza’s quickness may get the better of Melo at times, but Anthony’s strength will likewise cause problems for Trevor on the defensive end. Melo has forced his name into the discussion of best players in the postseason and I fully expect that trend to continue in the immediate future.

Power Forward: Advantage Lakers. Kenyon Martin is a very physical defender and could possibly cause Pau Gasol to lose his focus and start trying to get the referee’s ear. However, Gasol can stretch the floor and play with his back to the basket with equal skill. Martin is much more limited offensively which allows Gasol to conserve more of his energy for the offensive end.

Center: Push. Bynum has not fully proven that he is healthy and ready to be a factor in this series. Sure, he did play much improved basketball in the later games of the Rockets series, but he was also playing against a team without a true center or anyone who can body up on him (he is a beast). Nene has also not proven that he can be a consistent factor on the road in the post season, which is of crucial importance if the Nuggets hope to have a chance at upsetting the Lakers.

Bench: Push. This is a hard decision to make. Chris ‘the Birdman’ Andersen is the heart and sould of this Nuggets team and he, like Ariza, has earned himself a nice raise this season heading into free agency. He gets the crowd in the game. He blocks shots and alters way more shots than he actually touches. He provides highlight reel finishes in the open court. Besides him, the Nuggets have Anthony Carter, J.R. Smith and Linas Klieza to provide quality minutes.

The Lakers also have an extremely solid bench with depth at every position. Lamar Odom, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton all provide production off the bench and can step in if an injury were to occur to a starting teammate. The Lakers generally only need Odom and other of these guys to have a big game and they are virtually unbeatable. The bench (more so than even the Bynum v. Nene matchup) will be hugely important in this series.

Final Questions

Which team will show the mental toughtness of a championship team, even through adversity?

Can the Denver Nuggets overcome the Lakers’ home court advantage?

Where will game four be played?