Basketball Free For All

I compiled a quick list of some guys who might be of use in the short term to help your teams this week.  Hopefully everyone is already aware of guys like Toney Douglas, Jrue Holiday and Anthony Tolliver.  Good luck!

Matt Bonner (PF, C – 7%) – His role has increased a bit of late so he could help the deeper league team in a few cat’s but mainly 3’s.

James Harden (PG, SG – 26%) – see Phil’s article.

Chris Hunter (SF/PF/C – 2%) – As Golden State’s only true center still standing, expect Chris to see decent time down the stretch.  On his productive nights, expect points (on great FG%), boards and an occasional block.

Serge Ibaka (C – 5%) – He’s playing with a lot of confidence right now and can help you with boards/blocks.

Kyle Lowry (PG/SG – 9%) – As his ankle has strengthened, he’s gone back to being more effective again.  In addition, Battier continues to miss time to a hyper extended knee.  Kyle will help with points, assists and steals.

Jason Maxiell (PF/C – 23%) – Don’t let his last game scare you off as he got into foul trouble.  By many accounts, Ben Wallace is done so Max will get a lot of run putting up great boards with decent points/blocks.

Wesley Matthews (PG/SG – 12%)/CJ Miles (SG/SF – 13%) – Points, 3’s and steals available here but expectations should be tempered a bit as Andrei Kirilenko is slated to return Friday.

Darko Milicic (PC/C – 12%) – Over his last 4 games, he’s averaging just over 30 minutes.  Boards/blocks are good with decent points and FG%.

James Singleton (SF/PF – 8%) – Flip just stated he’s going to be inserted into the starting lineup.  He’s a rebounding machine but can help in points and defensive categories on certain nights.  Must add for those looking for boards as he’s got a very fantasy friendly schedule down the stretch.

Bill Walker (SG/SF – 8%) – Juicy matchup against PHO and going forward the Knicks play 10 games with Wilson Chandler still sidelined and Tracy McGrady always ready to go down.  With decent run, he’s usually good for points, 3’s and steals.

Earl Watson (PG – 19%) -  TJ Ford continues to miss games so Earl could be a good source of assists/steals with a 3 or two.  However, do so as a last resort as Ford is slated to be back any day now.

Reggie Williams (SF – 19%) – Nellie loves anyone who can put the ball in the hoop and currently Reggie is converting at a very efficient clip (sorry Anthony Morrow owners).  Get his scoring (on good percentages), 3’s and rebounds while he’s still hot!

With yet another NBA trade deadline coming and going, a lot of excitement and hope was generated among the fans and media.  Some teams were looking for that final piece that makes them championship material.  Others simply were looking for a player that helps them get into the postseason.  Lastly, there were a few who look at this time of the year as the highlight of the season as their team struggles to even be competitive on a nightly basis so might as well position themselves for the upcoming lottery.  Whatever the reasons, all fans hoped their team would have made a trade or two that improved future prospects.  Question is, how often can these deadline deals really be coined successful?

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Week Eight brought it’s fair share of drama and story lines on the court. On the injury front, a group of players eaither came back from injury early or announced their intention to return from injury early (see below). On the bizarre injury front, Dirk Nowitzki’s elbow had an appointment with five of Carl Landry’s teeth, with Dirk walking away with pieces of Carl’s teeth lodged in his elbow. That injury sounds excruciating for both players, who were both coincidentally having phenomenal seasons.Hopefully these guys make it back from injury quickly and resume their productive ways on the court.

HOUSEKEEPING

Basketball Free For All is looking for a few good men or women to join the crew. Specifically, we are looking for new writers to contribute on a weekly basis. If you read BFFA regularly you should know the skills required: knowledge of statistics, general basketball knowledge, fantasy basketball knowledge, quality writing skills, a willingness to question commonly held views and being awesome in general. If you are interested in inquiring further, shoot me an email at plonden [at] basketballfreeforall.com (obviously replacing [at] with @ before you send the email) and we’ll talk specifics. Also, we would obviously welcome others with unique skills (web skills, programming, statistics, marketing, business, whatever) who are interested in contributing to the Free For All so just inquire if you are interested.

WEEK NINE SCHEDULES

Two Games: CHA, MEM, NJN, NOR, PHI, TOR

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, LAL, MIA, MIL, MIN, NYK, OKC, ORL, POR, SAC, UTA, WAS

Four Games: CLE, HOU, IND, LAC, PHO, SAS

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Joel Przybilla (C – 39%) As a starter, Przybilla has averaged 5.7 points on .500/.625 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.5 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers. His offensive efficiency has nose-dived this season but his defense is just as good if not better than last season. His mass alone will keep him on the court this season so give Ghostface Przybilla a look for blocks and boards.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 26%) If one thing is certain in Philly, it is that Speights is the type of big man that excels in Eddie Jordan’s offensive system. Speights has picked up right where he left off since returning from his MCL injury. Over his past three games, Marreese has posted extremely solid averages of 19.7 points on .468/.682 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 7.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers, effectively crushing the previously burgeoning fantasy value of Samuel Dalembert, who played 14.7 minutes per game during the same span (although foul trouble played a role as well). Your window to sell high on Dally has been effectively closed until he gets moved or an injury to another Sixers big man occurs. The only downside is the Philadelphia only plays two games next week, although it is mitigated by the fact that Speights is an excellent pickup for the long-term.

C.J. Watson (PG/SG – 18%) Over the past two weeks, Watson has been a top fifty player, which has been extremely surprising. The odds are greatly stacked against C.J. being able to produce at such a high level for the remainder of the season, as the Warriors offense is run almost exclusively through Monta Ellis. For evidence, check out Watson’s usage percentage of a mere 14.0 percent compared to Ellis’ 29.4 usage percentage. As a result, Watson’s steals (1.5 per game this season and 2.0 per game over the past two weeks) make up the lion’s share of his fantasy value so give Watson an add if you are looking for a low turnover steal specialist.

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 13%) So far, Casspi has proven to be one of the early surprises of the 2009 NBA Draft for the Sacramento Kings. Based on his recent strong play, Omri has moved into the Kings’ starting lineup and looks to remain there at least until Kevin Martin returns from his wrist injury. For an idea of what his numbers would look like if given extended burn, check his per-36 minute averages of 17.3 points on .513/.577 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 5.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. As the season has progressed, Casspi has also improved each month from the free throw line, meaning his early struggles from the line were probably confidence-related and that we can expect continued improvement over time.

Jose Juan Barea (PG – 12%) In his fourth season in the NBA, Barea is posting career-highs across the board. Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle has noticed, increasing J.J.’s minutes largely at the expense of rookie guard Rodrigue Beaubois, who has the physical tools to carve out a nice role for himself in this league one day. Over the past four games, Barea has averaged 16.3 points on .553/.857 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers per game. Players that are putting up over fifteen points per game don’t wallow on the wire for very long so grab J.J. and hope his hot hand can continue.

WATCH LIST

Jerryd Bayless (PG – 9%) In true Arizonan fashion, Bayless dropped the best line of his short NBA career against the Phoenix Suns last Thursday, while doing his part to push the Suns winless streak on TNT to 17 games. On Thursday, Bayless put up 29 points in a game that ended up being decided by only two points. Without a doubt, he is a big part of why the short-handed Blazers upset the Suns. The following game, Bayless saw his minutes increased to over thirty minutes against Orlando. Most notably, Jerryd played more minutes than Steve Blake. In short, Bayless is on his way to becoming a big time scorer. For reference, check his per-36 minute stats of 21.7 points on .530/.764 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 3.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks and 1.9 turnovers. The one thing that jumps out is that Bayless has poor defensive statistics and subpar threes for a guard. This combination does not bode well for fantasy value, as elite guards usually need to do more than simply score in order to maintain their fantasy value.

Kyle Lowry (PG/SG – 8%) Lowry qualifies for the watch list this week based upon his monster line against the Mavericks on Friday even though he put up a stinker on Saturday. Lowry’s line was so impressive, it bears repeating here to marvel. With Landry out with the aforementioned dental injury, Lowry stepped up and dropped 26 points on .615/.778 percent shooting, 3 threes, 6 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 steals, 1 block and 2 turnovers. If only there were some way to predict when these random epic fantasy lines were going to occur? That, my friends, is the proverbial fantasy holy grail, the pursuit of which is a quixotic mission. Just remember to run to the wire and pickup Lowry if Aaron Brooks ever misses significant time.

Earl Watson (PG – 4%) Watson has moved ahead of T.J. Ford on the Pacers depth chart, stealing the starting point guard honors from Ford on Saturday night. With the Pacers struggling this season and missing franchise player, Danny Granger, lineup shakeups were to be expected. Monitor the situation closely over the next week and move Watson from the watch list to your roster should the upward trend on his minutes continue and he produces in his time on the floor. That second caveat was necessary after Earl’s 3 point, 5 rebound, 5 assist showing on Saturday night. Worst case scenario, the Pacers point guard spot will be a time share with Ford and Watson killing each other’s value.

Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 3%) Over the past few games Wright has finally started to turn his potential into production. Wright has been (incorrectly) picked as a breakout player over the last couple of years but has been derailed by a series of injuries. Recently, however, Wright has finally been putting everything together and has been seeing increasing minutes as a result. Over the past five games, Wright has played 27.8 minutes per game posting averages of 13.2 points on .583/1.00 percent shooting, 1.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.4 turnovers. Wright has been doing two things on the court that really make coaches happy, notably playing active defense and taking care of the ball.

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 26%) Captain Kirk has never been the most efficient scorer on the floor, but he certainly has never had such a terrible shooting season like he has this year. However, Hinrich’s early troubles this season were strongly related to his thumb injury from November and are thus not just a regular shooters’ slump. With the Bulls in desperate need of three point shooting (28th in three point percentage, 30th in both three pointer made and attempted), Hinrich should earn his keep from downtown, as he is a career .377 percent shooter from behind the arc. Don’t expect elite fantasy production from Kirk at this point but more outings similar to his game against the Hawks on Saturday night are on the horizon: 13 points on .556/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 0 turnovers.

C.J. Miles (SG/SF – 3%) Miles has had an up and down season thus far, which started terribly after tearing a ligament in his thumb. While he was out, rookie guard Wesley Matthews stepped up and played well for the Jazz causing speculation that Miles’ starting job was lost for good. However, Miles recently showed up and played an instrumental role for the Jazz in securing a win against the Bobcats on Saturday night. Miles dropped 20 points on .500/.500 percent shooting, 3 threes, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks and 1 turnover. Most notably, Miles topped the 30 minute mark for the first time this season with the undrafted Matthews only seeing seven minutes of game time despite getting the starting nod. With another performance or two like last night’s, Miles will be scooped off the wire in most leagues.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jared Jeffries (SG/SF – 3%) Like Chuck Hayes at the start of this season, Jeffries’ fantasy line is not fashionable but rather purely functional. JJ is a nice player that is essentially a defensive specialist, especially if you are punting points or are already dominant in points and can carry a negative contributer for scoring. As he is being showcased for potential trades, Jeffries has logged 33.3 minutes per game over the past two weeks and has averaged 2.3 steals and 1.3 blocks over the same span. Again, Jared should only be added in deep leagues that are looking to beef up the defensive categories.

Goran Dragic (PG/SG – 1%) Second year Slovenian point guard Goran Dragic looks to finally be getting comfortable playing basketball at the NBA level. In the past week, Dragic played the best basketball of his career against the Suns’ arch-nemesis (setting a career high 18 points against the team that drafted him), the San Antonio Spurs. Most impressively, Dragic played tough defense holding Spurs shooting guard Manu Ginobili to only seven points while also visibly frustrating him. With the Suns making a long home stand and being the only undefeated team at home in the NBA, Dragic should see increased burn during both close games and garbage time.

Serge Ibaka (C – 1%) Ibaka’s minutes are trending upward as this season progresses, as he has really impressed Coach Scott Brooks with his hustle when given playing time. Over the past couple of games, Ibaka has been given nearly 23 minutes per game and has responded with a decent fantasy line of 11 points on .786/0.00 percent shooting (on zero free throw attempts), 0.0 threes, 6.5 rebounds, 0.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.5 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Ibaka is largely specialized in the big man categories but could really pile up the blocks if given enough PT (2.6 blocks per 36 minutes). For deep dynasty leagues, Ibaka is a player that should probably be rostered at this point based upon his potential alone.

Jonathan Bender (SF/PF – 0%) Taken fifth overall out of high school in the 1999 NBA Draft, Bender has widely been recognized as one of the biggest draft busts in the NBA as knee injuries cut his career short. Nearly four years later, Bender is back and is playing for the New York Knicks. In his first game back in the NBA, Bender put up 9 points on .500/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, o steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. With zero percent ownership, Bender is available everywhere and should be monitored to see if he can flourish and make the cut for Coach Mike D’Antoni’s short rotation.

COMING BACK FROM INJURY

Lou Williams (PG/SG – 41%) He’s baaack and way ahead of schedule to boot. In his first game back he played over 23 minutes although admittedly showing his rust on the court. It was reported that Williams lost a few pounds while on his liquid diet (courtesy of Antawn Jamison). Look for Williams to return to the starting unit soon and get back on track with his breakout season. Based upon his early season play, he should not be on a single waiver wire.

Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 39%) TT is targeting a December 26th return to game action after fracturing his arm in a weightlifting accident. He is slated to return to practice today so pay attention to any updated timelines in the next couple of days.

Leandro Barbosa (PG/SG – 53%) Merry Christmas! Barbosa is planning on returning to game action on December 25th against the Clippers, nearly a full month after he severely sprained his ankle against the Raptors. Barbosa was finally starting to string a few solid games together when he went down so look for him to resume his strong play sometime in early January.

Yi Jianlian (PF – 21%) Out since early November with an MCL injury, Yi is slated to return to game action this Wednesday against Minnesota. His retun was delayed a couple of weeks after a vicious Sean Williams elbow during practice that required 50 stitches. Hopefully, the elbow was a blessing in disguise as it kept Jianlian sidelined a bit longer and made sure his MCL injury was fully healed to prevent further injury. Yi is cruising dangerously close to earning the “injury-prone” label, which is stigma that is not easily erased.

STAY THE COURSE

Tyson Chandler – (C – 46%) It’s hard to understate how disappointing Tyson has been this season. His season averages of 6.5 points on .490/.727 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 6.8 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. The jump in turnovers was expected, as he is no longer playing with the game’s best point guard, Chris Paul. However, no one was expecting such a dramatic drop-off in almost every other category. Recently, he pulled down twelve or more rebounds in two of his past three games. After being called out by his teammates for his lack of heart and lack of effort, look for Chandler to respond to the challenge and pickup his subpar play.

Courtney Lee (SG/SF – 53%) Widely touted as a breakout player or sleeper before this season started, New Jersey’s Courtney Lee has had an unusual season playing for the league’s worst team. Don’t give up on this young swingman and expect his season averages of 11.0 points on .381/.810 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.0 turnovers to increase. Lee’s shooting efficiency has suffered greatly from his move from a deep and talented team to a thin and awful team has caused opposing defenses to turn greater attention to forcing him to take bad shots. However, his low turnovers coupled with nice steal numbers have made Lee a decent options for teams that can handle his poor shooting.

Anthony Morrow (SG/SF – 62%) One of the league’s best pure shooters has suddenly lost his stroke. Since missing time for a funeral, A-Mo has gone absolutely frigid from the field. On the season, he is shooting a respectable .487 from the field,  a scorching .462 from downtown and an elite .900 from the free throw line. Morrow has serious .500/.400/.900 potential. Over the past six games, however, Anthony has shot a miserable .268/.292/1.00. Hey, at least his free throws are still falling. Being a pure shooter, Morrow will come around doing what he does best: hoisting ‘em at the rim.

CUT LIST

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 12%) Psycho T has proven a lot in his short NBA career. Most importantly, he has proven to the doubters that he will be an effective player at the NBA level one day. However, he has proven that he has not developed the go-to moves necessary to be an efficient scorer in the Association. These moves will come in time, as Hansbrough has proven to be a relentless worker during his tenure at North Carolina and with the Pacers. However, outside of teams that are punting field goal percentage, Tyler’s .372 percent shooting from the field on 8.2 attempts per game is too crippling for widespread roster consideration.

Anderson Varejao (PF/C – 47%) Sideshow Bob’s fantasy value tends to go the way of his defensive production. AV’s real life and fantasy value never has and never will be predicated on his offensive production. Instead, his value comes from boards, blocks and steals. Recently, his rebounds have stayed somewhat stable but his blocks and steals have dried up, crippling his worth to fantasy teams.

MYSTERY MAN

Mario Chalmers (PG – 61%) This week sees another first for the Preview post: the Mystery Man selection. And there is no better player to be the inaugural Mystery Man than Miami’s Mario Chalmers. Heading into this season after a surprisingly strong rookie season that saw Chalmers post top-75 per game value and nearly top-50 cumulative value, Chalmers has disappointed virtually across the board. A sophomore slump, perhaps? Not only has he failed to progress in multiple categories, but he has actually regressed as well, most notably in steals (from 2.0 last season to 1.5 this season), which accounted for the vast majority of Mario’s fantasy value last season. As a result, Chalmers has recently been demoted to the second unit and his play has even caused speculation that Mario is not the point guard of the future for Miami. The next few games and weeks will be pivotal for Chalmer’s fantasy value this season so this is definitely a very interesting situation to monitor. How this position battle between Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo plays out remains a mystery for now.

Houston, do we have a problem?  Perhaps.  This season, the Rockets will be starting the year without any star players on the court.  Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are, what else, taking another injury vacation.  Ron Artest left town for the greener pastures of Los Angeles.  So what can the beloved Rocket faithful expect from a team full of solid complimentary players and a bunch of unprovens?

John Hollinger predicts they’ll finish 9th in the Western Conference while ESPN analysts as a whole have them finishing around 10th.  Dave Berri of Wages of Win Journal thinks they have a good chance of finishing with over 40 wins and gives them a chance to make the playoffs.

Why are these NBA analysts so high on a team that seems to be lacking so much firepower?  Well, they’re believers in the rest of the roster.  The Rockets have a lot of excellent complimentary players in Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry and Luis Scola.  Specifically, these guys, coined ‘low usage high efficiency players’, all post above average Wins Produced by doing a lot of stuff outside of putting up huge scoring numbers.

Many of these analysts think they’ll be able to keep up similar production with a simple increase in minutes.  Herein lies the problem in my opinion.  Asking a few solid players to step up is probably sound.  Asking most of these low usage guys to become high usage guys?  I have a hard time believing it’s as simple as a linear equation.  They are going to have to spend more time on the court but produce AT LEAST at the same rate as prior years.  Don’t forget more than a few of them are also going to have to develop a high volume FG mentality.

When you remove both a McGrady and Ming, what happens?

Opposing defenses now don’t have to concentrate on the highly skilled offensive player(s).  All of a sudden, the complimentary guys become the focal point as they can’t pass off the ball anymore to the star to make something happen.  The onus is in Ariza’s, Scola’s or whomever’s hands to beat that shot clock.  Now, these players who are not adept at handling solid defensive pressure will be called on to make plays possession after possession.

To help illustrate this fact, I took a look at 2006-07 Rockets team?  Why?  They had a multitude of solid win producers like the current Rocket’s team, but more importantly, had 5 games in which both McGrady and Yao Ming missed.  Dikembe Mutombo, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Luther Head, Rafer Alston, Kirk Snyder and Juwan Howard were the 7 primary guys besides the two stars.  Based on their Wins Produced, they should have been close to an average team coming in with 37 wins.

Do you know what they did in those 5 games?  They shot a putrid 38.3% (150-392) from the field and posted an abysmal assists to turnover ratio (71 assists compared to 65 turnovers).  Since they were solid players, they were able to stay close in most of the games (avg loss of 7.2 points) and were only out-rebounded by 4.4 boards.  However, not to win a single game against squads like the 40-win Clippers, 32-win Portland or, my favorite, a 24-win Boston Celtic team?  Yikes!

This years Rocket’s main 7 (Ariza, Battier, Hayes, Landry, Scola, Lowry and Aaron Brooks) have a combined 36.2 wins based on last year’s statistics.  Sounds a lot like the 2006-07 group as they both have solid complimentary players but appear to lack at least a couple of proven scoring mentalities.

If preseason is any indicator, Rockets may indeed be in trouble as they put up a mediocre 4-4 record.  The team combined to shoot a respectable 44% (283-641) from the field but their assists (151) and turnovers (140) were pretty bad.  In addition, new team member, Trevor Ariza, saw his efficiency and rebounding go down from last season.

So far, through two games this season, the Rockets have managed one very fortunate win against the Warriors last night.  They needed every bit of the 12 of 26 shots from 3 point range to eek out a 1 point win.  Despite that peformance, they still have a dismal 41.9% overall field goal percentage on the young season.

Also, it can’t be oversimplified what consistent hardship and failure must do to one’s overall game after enjoying success the last several years.  Consistently putting up more shots than one’s accustomed to while becoming much less adept.    Less cheering/excitement for home games.  Local media outlets start talking about the lottery.  The overall lack of positive feelings have a good chance to eventually weigh on the psyche’s on most of the players during the course of 82 games.

I like Ball Don’t Lie’s prediction of a record of 37-45 which precludes Tracy making it back at some point.  This team will not have a chance on sniffing the playoffs unless Tracy McGrady shows a return to All-Star form in the majority of this season’s games.  Or I guess a young player like Aaron Brooks could try and don some wings and a halo too.

In competitive fantasy leagues, it’s never too early to start to identify potential sleepers for next season. Even though almost anything can change over the next few months, some players are already emerging as potential studs or breakout candidates for 2009-10.

The recipe for a potential sleeper is never the same. Sometimes it is true progression as a player, other times a trade or injury opens up minutes for a player. It can even be a truly unexplainable phenomenon. Whatever the reason, breakout players are essential to securing the ever-elusive hardware when playing against other knowledgeable managers.

Let’s break the potential sleepers into three groups: the guards, the forwards and the centers.

First, let’s look at the guards.

Tyreke Evans – Drafted fourth overall by the Suckramento Sacramento Kings this year, Evans is going to have ample opportunity to carve out a large chunk of playing time. In full rebuild mode after a pathetic 17-65 2008-09 season (.207 winning percentage), the Kings (similar to the Oklahoma City Thunder) have committed to developing their young core.

Since being drafted, the word out of Sacramento is that the Kings plan on playing Evans at the point guard position next to the high scoring guard Kevin Martin. As a rookie, Evans should probably be given eligibility at both guard spots. He has the potential to be an inefficient scorer right out of the gates, but will most likely improve over the course of the season. There are valid concerns about his assist to turnover ratio, especially if he is indeed the Kings starting point guard.

In dyanasty formats or keeper leagues with high numbers of keepers, Evans is definitely one of the players from the 2009 draft to keep an eye on.

Johnny Flynn – In a move that was widely criticized at the time, the Minnesota Timberwolves drafted both the Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio and Syracuse standout Johnny Flynn with back-to-back picks. Now with Rubio most likely staying overseas and Sebastian Telfair a Clipper, Flynn now has the keys to the low-octane Minnesota offense (24th in offensive efficiency last season).

So what is so special about Johnny Flynn?

At six feet tall (in shoes) and 190 pounds, he is an undersized point guard in the NBA. However, unlike Tyreke Evans, who was selected two spots ahead of him in the 2009 draft, Flynn is a true point guard and a natural leader. And leadership is something the T-Wolves could definitely use next season. Flynn is also a winner and exhibits all the intangibles that will keep him on the floor.

Similar to Evans in Sacramento, Flynn will get big minutes manning the point in Minnesota. However, he will probably struggle to score from distance at first and will likely have a relatively low field goal percentage. Again, like Evans, Flynn will be very valuable in dynasty and keeper formats.

Mike Conley – Entering his third season in the NBA, there are a variety of factors that could lead a reasonable manager to believe that Conley is primed for a very productive 2009-10 season. First, Conley has a coach and front office that has illustrated it’s commitment to Conley by trading away his primary competition for minutes at the point (Kyle Lowry). Second, Memphis is committed to developing it’s young and talented core of players that has been racked up over the course of successive lottery-worthy campaigns.

And finally, Conley is a talented dude that is right at the age when many players make productive strides in both fantasy and real life. Looking at his post-All-Star Game splits from last season, it is easy to see why some savvy managers are excited about his prospects for next season. In the thirty games he appeared in after the All-Star Gane, Conley averaged 14.5 points on 46.4/84.0 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.2 blocks, and 2.2 turnovers. Also, his 2.6 AST/TO ratio is solid as well.

If you assume some modest improvements based upon his post-All-Star Game splits, Conley is slated to make the jump to a very solid second point guard. His should be good for six or seven assists per game and nearly two threes and two steals per game. That is a very nice statistical combination for almost any fantasy format. Just hope that the Grizzlies don’t sign Allen Iverson. Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Eric Gordon – You may find it hard to believe that not every recent move the Clippers have made recently has been bad. For proof, just look at the Clips’ selection of Indiana guard Eric Gordon, who has drafted seventh overall in last season’s draft. By almost any measure, Gordon had an impressive rookie season. However, the way he handled himself and responded to all the adversity and drama in Clipper Nation truly showed what kind of potential this kid has.

In a season that saw an immense number of injuries to the Clippers roster, Gordon responded by putting his head down and doing work. Gordon played in 78 games and averaged nearly 35 minutes per night at the two. As a rook, he averaged 16.8 points on 45.6/85.4 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.5 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. According to Basketball Monster’s Player Rankings, Gordon was 72nd in per game rankings and 58th in cumulative value in nine category leagues last season.

If you picked up Gordon off the waiver wire last season, your team probably got a big time boost and you might have even won a medal for snagging him. If Gordon does not progress at all next season, he will definitely be worth a roster spot in virtually all formats. However, assuming efficiency and overall production gains, he should be due a rise in fantasy value next season and in the future.

Russell Westbrook – The Oklahoma City Thunder seem to be claiming the “next Trailblazers” mantle as they assemble an impressive young core of players. Their strategy is to let the players develop and mature together over a course of years. And what that means for guys like Westbrook is guaranteed minutes, which translates to fantasy gold.

When watching Westbrook play during his rookie season, it is crystal clear that Westbrook absolutely oozes potential and that his ceiling as a player (and thus as a fantasy players) is extremely high. His game breaks barriers and defies description. For a small point guard, Westbrook is an excellent rebounder, especially on the offensive end (enough so to make some compare him to Rajon Rondo).

In looking at his per-36 minute statistics from his rookie season, the potential is obvious (17.0 points on 39.9/81.5 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 5.4 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.2 blocks and 3.7 turnovers). Westbrook will develop into a triple-double threat and should easily be able to average two steals per game very soon.

When it comes to Westbrook, there are only two types of people out there. Those who believe he is an absolute stud in the making and those who have never seen the Thunder play basketball (they probably don’t even know that the Sonics are no longer in Seattle).

Lou Williams – The last of the early sleeper guards this season is perhaps the most controversial. At some point in his career, Williams will develop into a prolific scorer. However, he is currently slated to be the Philadelphia 76′ers’ starting point guard. For Williams to the play the point, he will have to go against his natural instincts, which is to put the ball through the rim.

However, he does have one thing working in his favor: new Sixers coach Eddie Jordan. Jordan, who was targeted as the Wizards’ scapegoat for last season’s pitiful start after management got Arenased, is an underrated coach who relies on spreading responsibility for creating plays to everyone on the floor. In that case (and barring further free agent acquisitions or trades), Williams looks to have a very solid outing next season.

His per-36 minute averages of 19.5 points on 39.8/79.0 percent shooting, 1.2 threes, 3.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.8 turnovers are a nice benchmark for Williams. However, the key to him sustaining solid fantasy value is going to be whether Williams can increase his scoring efficiency from the field. If he brings his field goal percentage up above his career average (41.5 percent), Williams could end up being a solid third point guard. He is especially valuable on a team that is punting field goal percentage.

With the guards down, the forwards are up next.

The Los Angeles Clippers Memphis Grizzlies win the 2009 NBA Draft Lottery!

1. Los Angeles (17.7%)
2. Memphis (8.3%)
3. Oklahoma City (13.2%)
4. Sacramento (17.7%)
5. Washington (13.7%)
6. Minnesota (38.5%)
7. Golden State (60.0%)
8. New York (72.5%)
9. Toronto (81.3%)
10. Milwaukee (87.0%)
11. New Jersey (90.4%)
12. Charlotte (93.5%)
13. Indiana (96.0%)
14. Phoenix (98.2%)

Although the Clippers won the Blake Griffin Sweepstakes, the Memphis Grizzlies are the ones that really defied that odds and upgraded the most in the lottery. With only an 8.3 percent chance of landing the second pick in this year’s draft, Memphis overcame the biggest odds to secure its lottery pick. With the second pick, the player with the biggest upside is Spanish guard Ricky Rubio. However, the Grizzlies recently traded Kyle Lowry to Houston in a move that was widely interpreted as a sign of support for their young starting point guard out of Ohio State, Mike Conley.

A few months later, how would it look if Memphis turns around and drafts another point guard in this season’s draft? To look at it from another perspective, does it really matter what Conley thinks about the move at all? Well, yes and no. From management’s perspective, the team should take the best player available with the second pick of the draft (no). From a coach’s perspective, it is important to show public support for your point guard because he is the filter between the coaching staff and the players. He makes the entire offense and defense function (yes).

Positional needs can always be addressed during the offseason and even up until the trade deadline. However, a second pick overall allows you the opportunity to get premier talent on the cheap. If you draft by position instead of by talent and ceiling with the second pick in the draft, you end up with Sam Bowie instead of Michael Jordan. Although Memphis does lack size, passing on Rubio could end up being a “Bowie” moment for the Grizzlies franchise as Rubio has the potential to be a very special player.

Regarding the “real” winner of the draft lottery, the Clippers have an opportunity that they can’t screw up. They can’t screw this up, can they? The first step to success for L.A.’s other team is to draft Blake Griffin. No need to spend money on costly workouts or interviews this year. Second, get rid of Zach Randolph. Worst. Possession. Ever. If I am Clippers owner Donald Sterling (which, thankfully, I am not), I have already called, texted or twittered every other owner in the league to personally let them know that Z-Bo is available. That is addition by subtraction (Randolph) and just plain old addition (Griffin). Success!