Feb 8 2010

Preview: Week 16

Oleh Kosel

Sorry for the delay guys, but there was a football game yesterday and it happened to include my favorite team – the New Orleans Saints.  With their monumental win, there had to be an equally impressive celebration on my part.  Laissez le bon temps rouler!

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Dec 17 2009

Strategy: Cutting Turnovers

Phil Londen

Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

RankNameTo/GToV
2Martin, Kevin1.40.61
3Nowitzki, Dirk1.70.25
11Camby, Marcus1.11.01
12Williams, Louis1.80.11
18Nene1.50.45
21Horford, Al1.20.84
25Murphy, Troy1.50.48
31Gallinari, Danilo1.30.73
32Garnett, Kevin1.60.37
36Frye, Channing0.91.22
38Richardson, Jason1.01.07
39Landry, Carl1.50.43
40Lewis, Rashard1.40.66
41Deng, Luol1.70.23
42Dunleavy, Mike1.10.98
43Oden, Greg1.90.02
44Love, Kevin1.90.02
45Carter, Vince1.50.48
47Jamison, Antawn1.60.33
48Morrow, Anthony1.50.48
51Bargnani, Andrea1.50.48
54Allen, Ray1.70.27
58Green, Jeff1.70.17
59Aldridge, LaMarcus1.01.12
61Udrih, Beno1.70.21
63Villanueva, Charlie1.30.79
64Kirilenko, Andrei1.40.62
65Haywood, Brendan1.40.60
66Terry, Jason1.70.25
67Miller, Mike1.60.41
68Jefferson, Al1.70.28
69Dampier, Erick1.40.67
70Azubuike, Kelenna0.81.41
71Hamilton, Richard1.30.69
73Watson, CJ0.81.34
75Bell, Raja0.81.34
76Andersen, Chris0.71.50
80Speights, Marreese1.30.74
82Marion, Shawn1.10.95
83Ridnour, Luke1.30.77
84Crawford, Jamal1.60.34
85Lee, Courtney0.91.26
89Salmons, John1.50.45
90Calderon, Jose1.60.34
91Thompson, Jason1.90.01
93Wallace, Ben0.91.23
95West, David1.70.17
96Beasley, Michael1.70.28
98Okafor, Emeka1.50.45
99Blatche, Andray1.30.77
100Ilyasova, Ersan1.20.83

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

in, Kevin 1.4 0.61
3 Nowitzki, Dirk 1.7 0.25
11 Camby, Marcus 1.1 1.01
12 Williams, Louis 1.8 0.11
18 Nene 1.5 0.45
21 Horford, Al 1.2 0.84
25 Murphy, Troy 1.5 0.48
31 Gallinari, Danilo 1.3 0.73
32 Garnett, Kevin 1.6 0.37
36 Frye, Channing 0.9 1.22
38 Richardson, Jason 1.0 1.07
39 Landry, Carl 1.5 0.43
40 Lewis, Rashard 1.4 0.66
41 Deng, Luol 1.7 0.23
42 Dunleavy, Mike 1.1 0.98
43 Oden, Greg 1.9 0.02
44 Love, Kevin 1.9 0.02
45 Carter, Vince 1.5 0.48
47 Jamison, Antawn 1.6 0.33
48 Morrow, Anthony 1.5 0.48
51 Bargnani, Andrea 1.5 0.48
54 Allen, Ray 1.7 0.27
58 Green, Jeff 1.7 0.17
59 Aldridge, LaMarcus 1.0 1.12
61 Udrih, Beno 1.7 0.21
63 Villanueva, Charlie 1.3 0.79
64 Kirilenko, Andrei 1.4 0.62
65 Haywood, Brendan 1.4 0.60
66 Terry, Jason 1.7 0.25
67 Miller, Mike 1.6 0.41
68 Jefferson, Al 1.7 0.28
69 Dampier, Erick 1.4 0.67
70 Azubuike, Kelenna 0.8 1.41
71 Hamilton, Richard 1.3 0.69
73 Watson, CJ 0.8 1.34
75 Bell, Raja 0.8 1.34
76 Andersen, Chris 0.7 1.50
80 Speights, Marreese 1.3 0.74
82 Marion, Shawn 1.1 0.95
83 Ridnour, Luke 1.3 0.77
84 Crawford, Jamal 1.6 0.34
85 Lee, Courtney 0.9 1.26
89 Salmons, John 1.5 0.45
90 Calderon, Jose 1.6 0.34
91 Thompson, Jason 1.9 0.01
93 Wallace, Ben 0.9 1.23
95 West, David 1.7 0.17
96 Beasley, Michael 1.7 0.28
98 Okafor, Emeka 1.5 0.45
99 Blatche, Andray 1.3 0.77
100 Ilyasova, Ersan

Nov 20 2009

Strategy: The Art of the Buy Low, Sell High

Dallas Peagler

Every year there are players who will begin the season at a torrid pace. They rebound, steal, block and shoot their way to the top of the fantasy rankings right out of the gate. Conversely, on the less exciting side, there are also players you drafted early hoping they will have a stellar season for your team only to find out that they are anything but the great player you had hoped for.

This dichotomy can be so maddening for some owners that it will cause them to make rash decisions that savvy managers can exploit for their own selfish purposes (winning). Everyone likes a good deal and the fantasy community is no different. If you can find a manager who is tired of watching one of their star players under-perform, offer him a trade for a player(s) of less clout. The idea is to trade for a top-notch type player while he is at his statistical worst, buy low. Or trade away your over-achiever for a slumping stud, sell high.

The Buy Low

Before any trades are proposed, you need to consider a few things about the player(s) you are giving up as well as the player(s) you are receiving. When buying low, consider that you are essentially hunting in the bargain-bin at your local thrift store. The items (players) may have been nice at one time but now are used and a little worn out.

A few things to consider. Is the player coming off a down season that was an anomaly when compared to the rest of his career? Think Josh Smith last year, a year where he had career-lows in basically every statistical category (points, blocks, assists, rebounds) versus his play this year. Hopefully that year was just that, an anomaly, and the player will hopefully bounce back to his previous success of seasons past. Also, consider any injury history. Any player coming off of a major injury or surgery is surely going to have his value discounted at draft time. Finally, the true buy low player, a guy who just flat-out is not playing well at all but has a strong past track record to use as a reference point.

Here are a few buy low candidates to consider early on in the season.

The Injured Player. Kevin Martin and Chris Paul are two fantastic fantasy players that are viable buy low candidates at this point in the season and illustrate the injury aspect well.  No one wants to have an injured player on their roster. Its no fun watching one of your premier players accumulate zeros across the board night after night. After a few days or weeks of having to sit through an injury it can be beneficial to approach a slumping manager with a trade proposal for an injured star.

The other K-Mart has a hairline fracture in his left wrist that required surgery on November 9th. He is due out anywhere from 6-8 weeks but could be out longer as he doesn’t have the best track record for staying healthy. Owners needing a lift in threes, points, and free throw percentage may want to make a play for him. With a guy like Martin, it may make sense to wait a while to let the owner’s frustration grow to the breaking point.

Chris Paul is also out of action due to an ankle sprain and the initial prognoses is that he will be out for approximately one month. Making a trade proposal for CP3 requires a little bit more effort and tact. It is no easy process to get an owner to give up his number one pick, let alone the first or second overall pick in the draft. Paul is most likely only out a few weeks not an extended period so one would have to give up a quality player(s) that are not only healthy but are also producing top tier value. The key here is to not go too overboard in who you are willing to give up. Sure Paul can easily win a number of categories and possibly it all for your team but he isn’t worth it if you have to strip your roster to the bear bones just to acquire him. If Paul’s owner is losing bad it could benefit you to make a play for him ASAP while he is still out for a few weeks and the owner is still antsy to get a productive body in his lineup.

This type of buy low is especially effective when tried on managers at the bottom of the standings. They are more likely to be willing to deal an injured stud for lesser value in order to keep from falling too far behind and out of the playoff hunt.

The Player Returning from Injury. Pretty self explanatory here. Target a player who is just getting ready or has just returned from injury. Anytime a player has an injury that forces them to miss extended amounts of time, he usually comes back rusty and has a few bad games early on. Currently, there are multiple players that fit this bill including Kevin Love, Eric Gordon and Pau Gasol. Gordon and Love are still injured but are due back sooner rather than later and Gasol should be back to return Thursday night against the Bulls.

All three players are productive and can help virtually any team. When they do finally suit up, be sure to monitor their first couple of games. If they start out slow, send a trade proposal to open up tentative trade talks (nothing insulting). Most likely they will regain their form in a few games and will be right back to where they were before their injury. Just don’t wait too long because once they do fully recover, their value will drastically increase and your opportunity to buy low will be closed forcing you to pay full market value to obtain him.

Note: Be more cautious with major structural injuries that require months of rehabilitation as effects can often linger. Think Elton Brand trying to come back from his Achilles injury over the past couple of seasons.

The Slumping Player. Simple, go after any player who is performing below their career averages or your expected averages for this season. The idea here is the law of averages. If a player has performed at a certain (high) level for many years and is currently under-performing, he most likely will pick his game up at some point and eventually will end up performing at or near his career averages. A few players to consider under this model are Brand, Jose Calderon, Thaddeus Young and John Salmons.

All are in major slumps compared to their historical production and could be had on the cheap (well Brand’s window may be closed after his vintage performance against the Bobcats last night: 19 points on .471/.750 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 6 blocks and 1 turnover). One major caveat here is to be careful for a player currently slumping that also just signed a major extension, think Luol Deng in 2008-09, minus the stress fracture. Sometimes players just don’t have that fire in them after the big pay day and it can affect their entire season. For an excellent more in-depth article on Salmons,  check out the latest Great Debate piece.

Other buy lows to consider: Caron Butler, Al Jefferson.

The Sell High

If one of your players is playing such great basketball that it seems unlikely that he will continue to keep pace, then selling high is your best option to get positive returns on your player investment.

The Injury Fill-In. Anytime a starter goes down he opens up a spot for a bench player to shine. They can often be great pick-ups for the short term but will quickly lose their value once the starter returns. One player to unload immediately, like as in yesterday, is Andray Blatche. With a Basketball Monster rank of 65th overall in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 53rd overall in per game value, Blatche’s value is as high as it ever will be. Antawn Jamison is back from a shoulder injury and the party is officially over for Andray. In Jamison’s first game back, Blatche had 6 points and zero rebounds in just over 17 minutes.

Rookies. Rookies have become more intriguing over the past couple of years and are capable of making an immediate fantasy impact. Guys like O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose had managers salivating last season. This year, Tyreke Evans, Blake Griffin (even though he hasn’t even played a game yet) and Brandon Jennings have all been hot commodities. Jennings in particular appears to have been the steal of the draft (in both real life and in fantasy) with an average draft position of 126th overall in Yahoo! leagues. His 55 point outburst against Golden State last week got everyone’s attention and if you are skeptical of his ability to continue at such a high rate, now is the time to start shopping him. His current Ziguana rank is 15th overall. I’m not saying he won’t be great the rest of the year because he easily can be, but consider that it is early in a long season.

Rookies are not used to the physical demands of the NBA and its grueling 82 game schedule. The fabled “rookie wall” is very important to consider. Usually sometime mid-season around the 45-50 game mark, rookies start to slow down and their production drops. It is part of the game, learning how to keep your body healthy for the length of the season and rookies sometimes forget that the season is a marathon not a sprint. Watch out for the rookie wall and consider selling high before it happens to your rooks, especially if you can get a proven stud in return.

The Injury-Prone Player. The classic sell high candidate is the injury-prone player. A guy who always seems to miss time each season but is a strong player when healthy. To look at it from another perspective, they have high per game values but low cumulative values. There are  many players that fall into this category and it can often be tough to cut ties with a player who is playing to his full potential. This season there have been a number of players you could label as injury-prone who are healthy and are rewarding their owners.

Two of the best example are Staples Center big men Chris Kaman and Andrew Bynum. Over the past two seasons combined, they have missed 77 and 79 games respectively. But this year they are both healthy so far and are producing a per game Ziguana rank of 49th and 12th overall, respectively. When they are healthy they can carry your team in blocks and rebounding while providing solid percentages and points. But with multiple, serious injuries in the past, their durability is definitely an issue to consider. Kaman seems to have found his rhythm and is playing very well. Ongoing nagging injuries and simply being old could keep Marcus Camby “day-to-day” for longer than expected making Kaman’s production sustainable for the foreseeable future. Even with Blake Griffin due back next month from injury, expect Kaman’s value to hold strong. Bynum is a little more of a wild card. Two major knee surgeries in the past are signs owners might be a little scared of. However his 20.3 points on .591/.717 percent shooting, 0.0 threes,  11.8 rebounds 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.8 blocks and 2.3 turnovers make Bynum a major sell high candidate, just be sure you get quality value in return for the young center. Also, just remember that Bynum has posted these numbers with Pau on the floor this season, which is another reason to consider selling high on Andrew.

Other sell highs to consider: Marc Gasol, Channing Frye.


Oct 18 2009

9 Cat, Roto Rankings

Phil Londen

With fantasy draft season fully upon us, it is time to for Basketball Free For All t0 officially roll out it’s second set of Rankings. These rankings were compiled by the entire BFFA crew and are customized for standard Yahoo! 9 category rotisserie leagues. For managers of all skill levels, a good set of rankings is one of the keys to draft day success. So take a look and if you like what you see, print it ‘em out for draft day reference.

Strategy

To compile the rankings, we pulled together four fantasy basketball vets (plonden, Deebo, So-Tex and RedHopeful) from across the country to share their top 156 guys in this format. The rankings were then aggregated with each players’ four individual ranks averaged to create the Official BFFA Rankings.

Assumptions
Rotisserie
Nine Cat (FG%, FT%, PTS, 3PTM, REB, AST, STL, BLK, TO)
Non-Keeper
Positions: PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, UT, UT, BN, BN, BN

One note of caution. There have been a few developments (read: injuries) that are not reflected in these rankings. Antawn Jamison and Kevin Love have both been injured recently, with both of them potentially slated to miss significant time. Francisco Garcia’s recent freak injury has been taken into account into these rankings.

Round 1
1 Chris Paul
2 Lebron James
3 Dwyane Wade
4 Danny Granger
5 Kevin Durant
6 Dirk Nowitzki
7 Kobe Bryant
8 Chris Bosh
9 Amare Stoudemire
10 Deron Williams
11 Brandon Roy
12 Pau Gasol

Round 2
13 Steve Nash
14 Al Jefferson
15 Jason Kidd
16 Chauncey Billups
17 Jose Calderon
18 Gerald Wallace
19 Caron Butler
20 Troy Murphy
21 Brook Lopez
22 Elton Brand
23 Joe Johnson
24 Vince Carter

Round 3
25 Devin Harris
26 Gilbert Arenas
27 Carmelo Anthony
28 Andre Iguodala
29 David West
30 Kevin Martin
31 Antawn Jamison*
32 Shawn Marion
33 Tim Duncan
34 Jason Richardson
35 David Lee
36 Paul Pierce

Round 4
37 Rashard Lewis
38 LaMarcus Aldridge
39 Ray Allen
40 Dwight Howard
41 Kevin Garnett
42 Manu Ginobili
43 Mehmet Okur
44 Josh Smith
45 Monta Ellis
46 Andrea Bargnani
47 John Salmons
48 Al Horford

Round 5
49 Leandro Barbosa
50 Jameer Nelson
51 Nene
52 Jason Terry
53 Carlos Boozer
54 Rajon Rondo
55 Andrew Bynum
56 Eric Gordon
57 Mo Williams
58 Andris Biedrins
59 Marcus Camby
60 Al Harrington

Round 6
61 Anthony Randolph
62 Wilson Chandler
63 Tony Parker
64 Baron Davis
65 Ron Artest
66 Luis Scola
67 Charlie Villanueva
68 Tyrus Thomas
69 Mario Chalmers
70 Ben Gordon
71 Michael Redd
72 Emeka Okafor

Round 7
73 J.R. Smith
74 Derrick Rose
75 Nate Robinson
76 Boris Diaw
77 Thaddeus Young
78 Paul Millsap
79 Marvin Williams
80 Andre MIller
81 Mike Bibby
82 Jeff Green
83 Ramon Sessions
84 Russell Westbrook

Round 8
85 Rasheed Wallace
86 Joakim Noah
87 Ronnie Brewer
88 Stephen Jackson
89 O.J. Mayo
90 Michael Beasley
91 Rudy Gay
92 Kevin Love*
93 Chris Kaman
94 Trevor Ariza
95 T.J. Ford
96 Lamar Odom

Round 9
97 Zach Randolph
98 Spencer Hawes
99 Chris Andersen
100 Hedo Turkoglu
101 Greg Oden
102 Andrei Kirilenko
103 Josh Howard
104 Luol Deng
105 Danilo Gallinari
106 Jermaine O’Neal
107 Rodney Stuckey
108 Mike Conley

Round 10
109 Mike Miller
110 Kelenna Azubuike
111 Raymond Felton
112 Louis Williams
113 Jason Thompson
114 Shane Battier
115 Blake Griffin
116 Richard Hamilton
117 Aaron Brooks
118 Courtney Lee
119 Grant Hill
120 Roy Hibbert

Round 11
121 Marc Gasol
122 Richard Jefferson
123 Yi Jianlian
124 Allen Iverson
125 Channing Frye
126 D.J. Augustin
127 Andrew Bogut
128 Anthony Parker
129 Tayshaun Prince
130 Brad Miller
131 Chris Duhon
132 Carl Landry

Round 12
133 Brandon Rush
134 Samuel Dalembert
135 Ryan Gomes
136 Brendan Haywood
137 Tyson Chandler
138 Corey Maggette
139 Antonio McDyess
140 Kenyon Martin
141 Anthony Morrow
142 Jamal Crawford
143 Julian Wright
144 Shaquille O’Neal

Round 13
145 Rudy Fernandez
146 Kirk Hinrich
147 Tyreke Evans
148 Ronny Turiaf
149 Darko Milicic
150 Stephen Curry
151 Randy Foye
152 Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
153 Drew Gooden
154 Kendrick Perkins
155 Johnny Flynn
156 Andres Nocioni


Aug 30 2009

Early Sleepers: The Forwards

Phil Londen

In competitive fantasy leagues, it’s never too early to start to identify potential sleepers for next season. Even though almost anything can change over the next few months, some players are already emerging as potential studs or breakout candidates for 2009-10.

Randolph1

The recipe for a potential sleeper is never the same. Sometimes it is true progression as a player, other times a trade or injury opens up minutes for a player. It can even be a truly unexplainable phenomenon. Whatever the reason, breakout players are essential to securing the ever-elusive hardware when playing against other knowledgeable managers.

Let’s break the potential sleepers into three groups: the guards, the forwards and the centers. We’ve already seen some of the guards.

Now, let’s take a look at the forwards.

Anthony Randolph – This summer’s worst kept secret, unfortunately. If you play in even a mildly competitive league, you’ve no doubt already heard all about Randolph.

So, is he all hype or is Randolph for real?

AR is legit. There is nothing not to like about this kid. He is a must have in most keeper and all dynasty formats. First, he has the numbers. From last season, his rookie season, his per-36 minute statistics were 15.9 points on .462/.716 percent shooting, 11.6 rebounds (4.1 offensive), 0.0 threes, 1.6 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.4 blocks with 2.4 turnovers.

Assuming no progression as a player and simply an increase in minutes (played only 17.9 minutes per game last season), Randolph becomes fantasy relevant. The defensive production to go with everything else is what really clues you in to Randolph’s potential fantasy value. And if you assume production gains as he develops as a player, Anthony becomes even more intriguing of an option.

Oh, and did I mention he was the youngest player in the league last season too?

When I try and decipher how rookies will develop in the future, I examine two major factors. First is skill, which covers both basketball skills and physical gifts. Randolph has both in spades and will continue to develop both aspects as he acclimates to the NBA and continues to fill out his ridiculous frame (7′3″ wingspan).

The second major factor that shapes how young players develop is work ethic. This is what really separates Randolph from other potential sleepers. Randolph had been working diligently to improve his game and get stronger this offseason. He has the drive of a winner that really sets him apart from the average player.

With all that being said, Randolph is a slam dunk, right?

Well, not exactly. Anthony plays for the NBA’s most eccentric coach, Don Nelson. Also know to fantasy managers as that son of a bitch. With Nellie being notoriously fickle, most managers have learned to never rule anything out when it comes to Coach Nelson, no matter how inane it sounds.

Corey Maggette at power forward or center? Sure, why not?

Some people are not buying the “hype” with Randolph but in the end the ingredients necessary for the recipe for success are all there. With Coach Nelson’s contract up after next season, Randolph will be freed soon enough (if not next season). Soon, everyone will be on the bandwagon. But for next season, if you want Randolph, you must reach for him. Chances are that someone else is buying what Randolph is selling and will be aggressively pursuing him next season.

For keeper formats of more than four keepers, Randolph will not slip out of the first round. In competitive redraft leagues, his average draft position so far this season is 68th overall (Buser Sports) so to lock him up he should be targeted in the 6th-7th rounds.

Don’t Sleep on Anthony Randolph.

Michael Beasley — Oh, how the mighty have fallen. After Beasley seemed to be pulling everything together at the end of last season, he quickly is challenging Crazy Pills Ron Artest as the Association’s biggest headcase (Stephon Marbury doesn’t count as he, as he himself recently pointed out, is not under contract by any team and therefor not technically in the league anymore). His recent Twitter/weed/depression episode has certainly called his focus into question (and for good reason).

But why were people calling Beasley a potential sleeper anyway? Dude was only good for 176th in per game value and 141st in cumulative value.

His post-All Star break splits were nice, if only for the increased efficiency; his actual production was more or less static. He went from shooting .455/.382/.768 before the All-Star Game to shooting .501/.462/.779 after the break (not to mention a dip in turnovers per game as well). The efficiency gains were what piqued the interest of fantasy managers and led many to begin calling Beasley a potential sleeper for next season.

Then weedgate hit. And the rest, like talk of Beasley being a potential sleeper should be, is history.

There are two main ways players respond to adversity in their lives. One, is by focusing all their emotions from the difficult situation into basketball, which actually enhances their play. This requires maturity and focus, both of which Beasley lacks. This is how the true legends of the game deal with diversity. It is the much ballyhooed “heart of a champion.”

The second response is to give up and wallow in the face of adversity. This is Beasley’s most likely response, if his short history in the league is any indicator. Next season is looking more and more likely to be a lost season for Beasley, as his personal issues look to affect his basketball production. Do yourself a favor and let someone else deal with the headache of owning Bongsley Beasley next season.

Kevin Love – To be perfectly honest, Love is not going to be the next Dwight Howard. But, he has been more or less underrated (or just plain overlooked in basketball Purgatory, aka Minnesota). What many people fail to realize is that Love is an excellent rebounder. Therein lies his true value and potential as a sleeper.

WARNING: a comparison between two players’ career statistics is going to be made but by no means is it endorsing the idea that these two players will have similar career paths. The comparison is to illustrate exactly how good of a rebounder Love is and will be in the future.

Look at Dwight Howard’s career statistics compared to Kevin Love’s career statistics (and by career I mean his rookie season).  Their career per-36 minute rebounding statistics are remarkably similar, with Love having the advantage on the offensive boards (4.8 to 3.6)! Not surprisingly, their rebounding rates are similar, which measures the percentage of total boards a player grabs while on the floor.

Howard is a player that everyone can agree is an excellent rebounder. The fact that Love’s rebounding statistics compare favorably to Superman’s rebounding statistics in his rookie season certainly bodes well for Love’s future both immediate and long-term.

As far as next season, an increase in minutes should be in order as the Timberwolves continue their rebuilding effort without having added significant pieces to their frontcourt. Love and fellow rebounding machine Al Jefferson are the foundations of Minnesota’s frountcourt next season and for the future.

Next season, Love should build upon his rookie season’s success and increase his fantasy value. As far as possible projections for his production, averaging 15.0 points on .466/.792 percent shooting, 10.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.5 steals, and 0.7 blocks with 1.8 turnovers is within the realm of possibility.

The closer Love can get his field goal percentage to fifty percent, the more likely he is to really solidify his fantasy value. After all, Love will probably never be prone to producing big time numbers in the defensive categories. But, he will give you about a double-double (think David Lee with better rebounding and worse field goal percentage) and hopefully over a block a game and just under a steal a game.

What’s not to well, uhh, love about Love next season.

Wilson Chandler One of 2008’s hottest sleepers is back, with a vengence. Although Chandler had stretches of solid fantasy production last season, he never really pulled it all together as many prescient managers expected.

For those who don’t know, Wilson Chandler was drafted by the Knicks with the 23rd pick in the 2007 draft out of DePaul University. Chandler played most of his mintutes at the small forward position last season but also played significant minutes at the four for Coach Mike D’Antoni (he even logged minutes at the shooting guard and center positions!). At 6′8″ and 220 pounds, Chandler is undersized at the four, although D’Antoni has never been shy to play guys out of position.

If anyone on the Knicks’ roster is untouchable, it might be Chandler. He is the type of player that thrives in D’Antoni’s uptempo offensive system. He will also be entering his third season in the league, which has traditionally been a year where players take great strides in their production. And since he is still on his rookie contract, his salary situation is nice and does not impinge on the Knicks’ 2010 hopes.

What fantasy production does Chandler have to offer?

Take a look at his per-36 minute statistics from Chandler’s 2008-09 season. He averaged 15.6 points on .431/.328/.795 percent shooting, 1.4 threes, 5.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. He has some serious steal-block-three per game club potential and is an across the board contributor. The only strike against him could be his sub-par field goal percentage, which he will hopefully improve upon as he develops further.

Source: Basketball Free For All

Entering the much discussed third season in the NBA, with the Knicks’ roster substantially unchanged at this point, expect Chandler to be a vital player for Mike D’Antoni next season. He should live up to the potential that has drawn the attention of diligent fantasy managers since his rookie season.

Gerald Wallace — As always, I try and disclose my biases when relevant. Basketball Free For All maintains a strict policy of full disclosure. To that end, it should be said that I am a full-blown Gerald Wallace fan. I love his game, his hustle and his heart. I love just about everything about him. Keep that in mind.

Not a sleeper in the traditional sense, Wallace still should be able to outproduce his draft position (early ADP of 29th overall, again according to Buser Sports). Last season, Wallace’s line was good for 14th in per game and 21st in cumulative value.

Let’s take a trip down memory lane. Last season was the year that saw Wallace missed seven games after suffering a collapsed lung courtesy of Lakers’ center Andrew Bynum. Think about that for a second. The man had his lung punctured, which resulted in it collapsing, and he only missed seven games. This dude is a warrior in the truest of senses.

Make no mistake, you don’t get the nickname  “Crash” for nothing. But being downgraded beyond the mid-third round is ludicrous. When healthy, Wallace has proven early-second round production and is entering his prime (will be only 27 years old next season). If he can put together a fully healthy season along with efficient shooting, Wallace could sneak his way into the first round in terms of per game and cumulative production.

One thing is for sure, though. Owning Wallace is not for the faint of heart. His reckless abandon on the basketball court is why he produces at the level he does. It is also the reason he frequently ends up in the hospital.If you are the type of manager who invests themselves heavily in their fantasy players, it is probably wise for your well-being to avoid watching the Bobcats play next season if you end up snagging G-Wall.

With the guards and forwards down, only the centers remain.