Basketball Free For All

Everything that follows is said with the utmost respect, as a true fan of Amare Stoudemire and the Phoenix Suns. After all, he has recovered from both the dreaded microfracture and an even more devastating freak eye injury, either of which would probably cause some players to consider retirement. The guy has been through a lot in his eight years of service on the front lines of the NBA. That’s what makes everything that has to be said that much more difficult.

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Did we really have to learn it’s not cool pulling a gun on a teammate in the locker room?  I’m looking at you Gilbert Arenas!  There are rumors flying around that he’s going to miss serious time as it could be measured in months.  Consequently, it’s no surprise this week’s mystery man has to be Randy Foye.  He’s been a starter in the past so I’d assume Flip would be encouraged to go with him over any of Washington’s other point guards.

Week Eleven Schedules

Four Games: ATL, CHI, LAL, MEM, MIA, NJN, NOH, ORL, POR, UTA, WAS

Three Games:  BOS, CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, MIL, MIN, OKC, PHI, PHO, SAC, SAS, TOR

Two Games:  NYK

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 16%) – Matt’s stock has recently gone up since he was moved into the starting lineup.  Stan Van Gundy has been singing his praises too so expect him to stick in place of Mickael Pietrus.  In his 3 recent starts, he’s averaged 16.7 points, 1.7 3ptm, 7 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.3 TO’s.  He’ll also contribute the occasional defensive numbers.

Omri Casspi (SG/SF/PF – 33%) – Casper has just been on a tear lately so I’m shocked he’s not more universally owned.  In the last 13 games, he’s averaged a very cool 16.2 points, 1.8 3ptm, 5,8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, .6 steals and .4 blocks.  With over 32 minutes a game, he’s also been very efficient shooting 48% from the field and 77.4% from the charity stripe with only 1.4 turnovers.  I don’t see a return of Kevin Martin ending his value either as Westy is likely to move him over to SF.

Nick Collison (PF/C – 5%) – If you don’t mind anti-glamor types, give Nick a look.  Since returning from injury, his minutes have been steadily trending upwards and it appears Scott Brooks is most comfortable with him over both Nenad Krstic and Serge Ibaka.  In the last 5 games, he’s averaged 9.4 points (on 70.8 FG% and 68.4 FT%), 7 rebounds and 1 block.

Luther Head (PG/SG – 9%) – Here we go recommending another Pacer again but you gotta figure we’re due to get one right!  Actually, there is a good chance he’ll revert back into some sort of inconsistent mess considering his track record, but why not ride him now?  He’s easily been the most productive wing player for O’Brien so look for him to continue to get minutes.  The last 3 games as a starter he’s averaged 23 points, 2.3 3ptm, 4.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 steals.

Juwan Howard (SF/PF/C – 10%) – Here is what I like to call a “process of elimination” player.  Simply put, the Blazers best big man is this 36 year old who was drafted by the Washington Bullets.  The last 6 games, Juwan has averaged 9 points (on 57.4 FG%), 7.8 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 1.8 TO’s.  Considering LaMarcus Aldridge is hobbled with an ankle sprain, Howard is well worth a spin during this upcoming 4 game week.

CUT LIST

Mario Chalmers (PG – 49%) – Sadly, it’s about time for owners to let Mario go as one of my favorite preseason targets has been an enormous letdown.  Most likely, his fate is about to be sealed as Miami is probably going to guarantee Carlos Arroyo’s contract for the rest of the season.  When that happens, Mario’s role as a reserve (6.3 points, .4 3ptm, 1.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists) looks to be close to permanent.

TJ Ford (PG – 43%) – Seems like Ford has finally hit rock bottom as he’s recently been demoted to 3rd string point guard for the lowly Indiana Pacers.  What’s worse is he claims in the linked article that he didn’t get an explanation for being removed from the rotation.  Uh, TJ, quit playing dumb.

Peja Stojakovic (SG/SF – 67%) – Since Christmas, Peja has fallen off a cliff (averaging under 5 points a game, 1 three, 3 rebounds and 1 assist in 4 games).  In addition to the obvious slump, his back has started to act up on him again.  Considering, he’s had chronic problems the last few years, don’t hold your breath he’ll be right as rain after a few days of rest.

WATCH LIST

DeJuan Blair (SF/PF/C – 14%) – Blair’s adjustment as a starter hasn’t gone as smoothly as most of us had hoped as his minutes and numbers have been up and down since being handed this juicy role back on December 21.  His uninspiring averages of 7.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, .6 steals and .7 blocks over that period have resulted in Theo Ratliff getting the start in Sunday’s game against Toronto.  However, it’s hard to throw in the towel on a kid who usually doesn’t need much time to put a fantasy worthy line.

Andray Blatche (PF/C – 33%) – “Seven Day Dray” started the season off with a bang thanks to an Antawn Jamison shoulder injury.  However, as expected, he faded back into obscurity when he became a role player again.  With the Wizards lackluster play, Flip gave Blatche a start in their last game against the Spurs.  Coach is looking for an increase in paint production, but we all know Dray loves to shoot too many jumpers.  If he does heed Flip’s wishes, he could be worth owning again.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 15%) – Managers looking for an interim boost in scoring should look Rasual’s way.  Over the last ten games, he’s averaged 14.5 points, 2.4 3ptm, 3.2 rebounds and 1 block on excellent shooting (48.7 FG% and 91.7 FT%).  More importantly, he has replaced Al Thornton as the team’s starting small forward.  Just remember to temper your expectations as Butler likes to disappear and Blake Griffin’s return is getting nearer.

Quentin Richardson (SG/SF – 18%) – Q has got to be this season’s Jekyll/Mr. Hyde winner.  Case in point, just glance at the boxscore of his last two games.  Against the Spurs, 0 points and 3 rebounds.  Against the Bobcats, 20 points (6 3ptm) and 5 rebounds.  I literally prefer to just watch Qrich, but he could be worth a look for a team either feeling lucky or in dire need of 3ptm.

STAY THE COURSE

Courtney Lee (SG/SF – 50%) – Mr. Lee’s averages have been quite pedestrian thus far this season:  11.5 points, .6 3ptm, 3.7 rebounds and 1.9 assists.  Lately, his numbers have shown a bit of a decline which is most likely due to the fact that Yi Jianlian and Chris Douglas-Roberts are back playing big minutes to go alongside Devin Harris and Brook Lopez.  Despite this, I still recommend you hang onto him.  That perimeter shooting is bound to improve as he’s always been considered an excellent shot.  Moreover, he provides a significant amount of steals (1.7) to go along with very low turnvoers (1.1).

Charlie Villanueva (SF/PF – 84%) – Without a doubt, there is cause for alarm as his recent 6 game averages are woeful:  4.7 points, .3 3ptm, 3.5 rebounds and .5 blocks.  As the roster is finally getting healthy around him, Kuester’s manlove for Jonas Jerebko and his plantar fasciitis are all attempting to stand in his way of solid production.  However, things will turn around as he sat down with the Coach and figured out what he needed to do.  The outcome?  He played 28 minutes in the Piston’s last game against the Bulls while Jerebko 19.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Glen Davis (PF/C – 4%) – With Kevin Garnett out for a minimum of 10 days, the Celtic’s need Big Baby.  Rasheed Wallace isn’t accustomed to playing huge starter’s minutes and Kendrick Perkins usually struggles with foul trouble.  Expect at least a few games of solid points, boards and steals in the near future.

Wayne Ellington (PG/SG – 1%) – Are we ready to proclaim it Wayne’s World?  No, but his role is undeniably increasing in Minnesota as evidenced by the uptick in his minutes recently.  Considering how the team is in need of a solid perimeter threat, Coach Rambis must be excited this rookie is finally putting things together.  If you’re in a deep league and would like to bump up the scoring categories, give him a try.  He set a new season high of 16 points and 3 3ptm in their last game.

MYSTERY MAN

Randy Foye (PG/SG – 31%) – As I mentioned earlier, Gilbert Arenas supposedly pulled the knucklehead move of the year by playing with a gun in the Wizard’s locker room.  Consequently, stiff penalties await and he could leave a mammoth hole for a lengthy period of time.  Enter Randy.  Even though Flip has shown a preference to Earl Boykins certain games, it is highly unlikely the 5 foot 5 inch guard could handle the starting duties.  Meanwhile Randy has played huge minutes at the point in Minnesota providing solid points, 3ptm, assists and steals.  Be ready to pounce if any new developments regarding any suspensions crop up.

Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

Regardless of league type or scoring settings, one should always consider the relative risk factors associated with drafting a player who is considered injury prone. You have to consider the type of production you can expect relative to what round he is being drafted in. If the player is heavily injury prone you may not get full value out of your pick.

A great example from last season would be Amare Stoudemire. He was universally considered a top four pick last season and was drafted as such. After missing 29 games due to a retina injury, he failed to produce value even close to a first round pick, let alone top five value. If a top pick goes down due to injury, even the most savvy fantasy manager can find themselves in a predicament.

In order to ease some of the confusion and turmoil associated with draft day, consider some of the league’s most injury prone players. Guys you might want to think twice about before drafting. Not to say that they are bad players, but they can’t help your team sitting on the bench in street clothes (I’m looking at you Mr. Arenas and your fancy ascot).

Now the criteria to determine who is an “injury risk” and who is not is no clear-cut science. It is not as simple as saying that if you missed x number of games the last season(s) then you automatically go on to a list. Conversely, we also are not saying that just because you have only missed a few games doesn’t mean that you are not an injury risk.

There is simply no substitute for doing your own research and reading up on players yourself.

Instead of looking at many of the more well-known injury-prone players such as Gilbert Arenas, Carlos Boozer, Caron Butler, Manu Ginobili, Andrew Bynum, Kevin Garnett, Dwayne Wade, etc. This list is reserved for some of the less obvious players who still have the unique ability to either lead a team to victory or tear down a fantasy franchise if injured.

The first player on our list is not only the highest ranked player but probably one of the more well-known injury prone players that we will comment on. This spot is reserved for Indiana Pacer Danny Granger. Going into his fifth NBA season Granger has established himself as one of the best go-to-guys in the league.

As the Pacer’s number one option, he holds plenty of fantasy value and will be a top ten fantasy pick this year in virtually every format. He can score from the inside or beyond the three point line. He has size, athleticism, passing ability, and is only 26 years old. Most importantly he has incredible heart and hustle.

He has increased his scoring average output by five points in three consecutive seasons (the first player in NBA history to do so) and was an All-Star last season. With 2008-09 season averages of 25.8 points on .447/.878 percent shooting, 5.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists,1.o steals, 1.5 blocks and 2.5 turnovers per game it is easy to see why he is such a hot fantasy commodity.

Another aspect of Danny’s game that has also increased incrementally each season since his rookie year is his minutes per game. His rookie year Granger averaged over 22 MPG and during the past two seasons he has averaged over 36 MPG. This is a substantial amount of minutes for any NBA player to average over the course of an 82 game season.

Granger has a history of ailments dating back to his college days. His junior year at the University of New Mexico he had surgery on his shoulder. He had arthroscopic knee surgery on his left knee as a senior, which caused him to miss a few games.  Last year Granger missed 15 games including a stretch in February and March where he missed eleven straight games. This comes after only missing a total of six games in his first three seasons combined.

What caused him to miss the eleven straight games was a tendon tear he sustained in his right foot. As a result, he was constantly hampered by soreness in his right knee during the second half of last season. With at least 36 minutes per game coming to him again this season, be sure to monitor Granger’s health routinely.

Don’t not avoid Danny on draft day because of his injury history because he will more than likely be fantasy gold next season. Just realize that you are most likely drafting a few DNP’s throughout the season if you go with Granger in the first round. This is one of the main reasons it makes sense to draft Kevin Durant ahead of Granger in most formats.

The second player on the injury docket is Brazil’s own Nene. Now Nene is the true definition of an injury risk and has only been able to complete 80 or more games once in his seven year career (his rookie season in 2002-03). Going into his eighth season, Nene has managed to miss a staggering 204 games, or an average of just over 29 games missed per season.

Last year he played in 77 games and had his greatest fantasy year by far (and a career year in real life) after averaging 14.6 points per game on .604/.723 percent shooting, 7.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.3 blocks and 1.9 turnovers per game. This stat line probably represents Nene at, or very near, his fantasy ceiling. With well-rounded production like that it is easy to see the value in drafting Nene in the early middle rounds of drafts.

But be careful; his injury istory is no laughing matter and is not overstated. In 2004-05, Nene missed 23 games due to injury (he suspended for four games). Damage to his left knee’s MCL caused him to be out thirteen games. Then he was out ten games due to a right hip contusion and a strained left hamstring.

On opening night in 2005-06, he tore his ACL three minutes into the season and went on to miss the entire rest of the season. In 2006 he missed 18 games, 16 of which were directly related to inflammation from a right knee contusion.

And to keep the injury streak alive and strong, in 2007-08, he managed to play in just 16 games. This time a combination of testicular cancer  (he is more than just injury prone), a right groin strain and a torn ulner collateral ligament  in his left thumb. These ailments kept Nene out of action for a combined 66 games.

These are major injuries and illnesses that should not be taken lightly. Just keep all of this in mind when reviewing Nene’s statistics from last season. Nene needs to stay healthy in order to justify this years average draft position, which is 51 according to Busersports, making him an early fifth round selection.

In the end, no one can predict which players will miss a significant amount of time next season. There are always freak injuries that simply cannot be predicted (see Francisco Garcia’s recent weightlifting accident). Just make sure that if you are drafting a player with a significant injury history you know exactly what you selecting (and how many games you are likely to miss out on).

With Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball up and running early this season, there is plenty of time to examine the data and prepare for drafts and the upcoming season. One important aspect to consider before drafting and assembling the perfect fantasy squad is position eligibility.

Each season is different and each season certain guys gain extra eligibility at a position you normally wouldn’t expect. Likewise, there are players that for some reason or another are missing a position eligibility they had last season or that they should have. Each fantasy sports provider has its own quirks and nuances and uses different criteria to make their position eligibility judgments. Make sure and examine your own provides list carefully.

Or, if you use Yahoo!, just continue reading. Your welcome.

Before getting into the nuts and bolts, take a step back and do some cursory research. Find out what the criteria are used to determine and assign position eligibility for your specific provider. The criteria will be laid out somewhere on their website. Or again, just continue reading.

Initial position eligibility for each player was determined based on past participation and information supplied by NBA teams during the off-season.

Players are eligible at one or more positions during the current Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Basketball season depending upon their real-life participation.

All position eligibility requests are reviewed by Yahoo! Sports and confirmed with our NBA sources. Due to the nature of the review process, we’re unable to comment on each individual player request.

Source: Yahoo!

So the eligibility is somewhat based upon real life and is subject to Yahoo!’s discretion. The Yahoo! Help page also lays out how position eligibility can be added throughout the regular season. This is also important to note because the eligibility is supposed to mirror real life to a certain degree. So when you see position changes in real life, Yahoo! is supposed to mimic that change as well.

Updates are made during the regular season based on changes to the lineups and official team rosters. Players don’t lose position eligibility when moving from one real-life position to another. So, if a forward starts to play regular shifts as a center, he’s eligible for the remainder of the season as a forward and a center.

New positions are added when it’s confirmed that a player’s primary position has changed and that the change is not expected to be a temporary one.

When a player has earned eligibility at a new position, it will be displayed wherever player positions are shown.

The key to Yahoo!’s in-season updates is that new position eligibility is to be assigned based upon permanent changes to a player’s primary position. With that in mind, don’t get too bogged down in the details. Just something to keep in  my mind as you review the position eligibility list. I definitely recommend perusing the list for yourself as different changes will stand out to different managers.

I reviewed the top 250 players (according to Yahoo!’s O-Rank) examining only their position eligibility. I compared their assigned eligibility to a combination of last season’s eligibility and my expected position eligibility for each player. Not exactly hard science. Then, each player was classified into groups.

Here are the results.

The Rookies

This season’s first pick overall, Blake Griffin (SF/PF), also provided the first eligibility surprise for rookies: small forward status. Griffin seemed a lock to gain power forward status but also could have been though of as a longshot for center eligibility if the Clippers decided to play small ball.  Small forward status is just icing on the cake as he is not pigeon-holed into the “PF only” category.

The next group of rookies contains players that obtained eligibility at both guard positions. This group includes Johnny Flynn (PG/SG); Stephen Curry (PG/SG); Tyreke Evans (PG/SG); and James Harden (PG/SG). Some of these are more surprising than others. In particular Flynn and Harden are both surprising but for different reasons; Flynn surprisingly gained shooting guard eligibility and Harden gained point guard eligibility.

The next two players’ eligibility was very surprising indeed. Both DeMar DeRozan (SG/SF/PF) and Terrence Williams (SG/SF/PF) were given eligibility at shooting guard and both forward positions. This means these two guys can be played at shooting guard, guard, small forward, power forward, forward or utility. Now that is versatility.

Other notables: Jordan Hill (SF/PF) and David Andersen (SF/PF).

Single Position Only

Of all the fantasy stars out there, no one gets overlooked and undervalued more often than Dirk Nowitzki (PF). That is scientific fact although no scientific studies were actually undertaken. Normally, it wouldn’t be surprising that Dirk only obtained power forward eligibility with his well-known preference to play the four and not the five. However, with Shawn Marion (SF/PF) on board, there is widespread speculation that Marion might spend some quality time at the four with Dirk at the five. Stay tuned and keep an eye out for added center eligibility for Nowitzki.

In an about face, the next guy is one guy people can’t stop talking about and overvaluing. As of now, Gilbert Arenas (PG) is slated to be have point guard eligibility only. While not entirely unexpected, it is important to note that and not rely on Agent Zero having dual guard eligibility.  In fact, it is probably a good idea not to rely on Arenas for anything.

Everyone’s hottest sleeper of the summer, Anthony Randolph (PF), has been given only eligibility at the four. This is surprising because of Randolph’s real life versatility. It is compounded by the fact that Anthony plays for Coach Don Nelson, who is known for his unconventional lineups and could potentially play three (or more) positions. For a system, that is supposed to mimic real life, Randolph having power forward eligibility only is certainly an airball on Yahoo!’s part.

Other notables: Kevin Garnett (PF); O.J. Mayo (SG); Trevor Ariza (SF); Shane Battier (SF) Kenyon Martin (PF); Yi Jianlian (PF); Keyon Dooling (PG); and Jose Juan Barea (PG).

Bonus Time!

Every season, there are a certain number of players that maintain eligibility for a certain position when the probably shouldn’t (bonus!). That is a great thing, because the more flexible your squad is the greater your chances of building a championship caliber squad are. This season, Kevin Durant (SG/SF) has maintained his shooting guard eligibility even though he has played almost totally at the three since Coach P.J. Carlesimo was fired early last season after a rocky start. The switch also coincides with the Durantula’s ascent to fantasy god status.

Similarly, Memphis’ Rudy Gay (SF/PF) plays almost exclusively at the three so the power forward eligibility can be viewed as an added bonus. With new addition and black hole Zach Randolph around, Gay will most likely spend even less time at the four next season (Darrell Arthur should also be picking up scrap minutes behind Z-Bo).

Other notables: Emeka Okafor (PF/C); Udonis Haslem (PF/C); and Darrell Arthur (PF/C).

Big Men with Small Forward Eligibility

This season, there is a group of big men that received small forward eligibility. For some, like Utah’s Paul Millsap (SF/PF), it comes as a surprise. If anything, Millsap should have eligibility at power forward and center, not small forward. But you can only hope that Yahoo! fixes that during the season, which would make Millsap extremely versatile with SF/PF/C eligibility.

Other notables: Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF); Jason Thompson (SF/PF) and Brandon Bass (SF/PF).

Point Guards with Shooting Guard Eligibility

The final group of players is guys who have eligibility at both guard positions. Most of these guys should come as now surprise, including the newest Timberwolf, Ramon Sessions (PG/SG). He should see some run at the two guard alongside rookie lotter selection Johnny Flynn. The real mystery is how Flynn walked away with eligibility at both guard positions but it’s usually a good idea to never question a good thing.

Other notables: Allen Iverson (PG/SG); Rodney Stuckey (PG/SG); Lou Williams (PG/SG); D.J. Augustin (PG/SG); and Rudy Fernandez (PG/SG).

A roundup like this is a useful reference but cannot subsitute for actually sitting down and reviewing the position eligibility list yourself. Take careful note of where eligibility assignments differ from your own opinion of position eligibility and keep these issues in mind when drafting.

The next step in breaking down the pre-draft data is scouring the Yahoo! O-Ranks and average draft position lists to see which players are being overvalued, undervalued and slept on.

Photo by Matthew West

Chicago’s veteran center Brad Miller was acquired from Sacramento last February in a trade that also netted fellow playoff standout and fantasy waiver wire standout John Salmons. In return, the Bulls sent Andres Nocioni and Drew Gooden. Both players would play vital roles in what would become one of the greatest, and longest, playoff series of all time.

That series was really a coming out party for Salmons. Prior to the trade to Chicago, Salmons had been wallowing in basketball hell.Where is basketball hell, you ask? Of course it’s Memphis Charlotte Sacramento.

In his first significant minutes in the playoffs of his career (the eight games with the Sixers don’t count; he only played 20 minutes total), Salmons proved that he deserves a starting spot on a contender in the NBA. And at 29 years of age, it couldn’t have come at a better time. Salmons (more or less) maintained his regular season averages of 18 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists. However, his efficiency from the field suffered. This is most likely a result of playing the Boston Celtics, which is known for having one of the better defenses in the league (good for second in the league in terms of defensive efficiency in 2008-09), despite Kevin Garnett’s absence.

Beyond the numbers, what was really impressive about Salmons from watching the Bulls-Celtics series was his composure, execution under pressure and hustle on both ends of the floor during the series. He played as a veteran should, despite it being his first (real) appearance on the national stage, and his play warrants universal recognition and respect among basketball fans and analysts.

Salmons’ teammate in both Sacramento and Chicago has faced a similar combination of disrespect and neglect throughout his career. At his prime, Miller was an All-Star caliber center, although not one of the top tier big men. From the recent aforementioned playoff series, Miller is most likely remembered for getting mugged by Boston’s Rajon Rondo in crunch time. And then also for subsequently bonking two free throws. It’s hard to blame the guy as he was visibly shaken from the flagrant foul hard foul from Rondo and subsequent medical treatment.

But people often overlook his follow-up performance in Game Six: 25 points while shooting 8 for 9 from the field, 2 for 2 from deep and 5 for 5 from the charity stripe. Oh, and he also chipped in 10 boards, 1 assist, 0 steals and 2 blocks with four turnovers. And Salmons also dropped 35 in that same game, which would end up being  a one point victory for the Celtics extending the series to a much anticipated and ultimately slightly disappointing Game Seven in Boston.

After close examination of Miller’s advanced statistics, it is clear that he is quite valuable to the Bulls. According to 82games’ statistics by position, Miller was good for a +7.4 PER advantage per-48 minutes than his counterpart on opposing teams. Compare Miller’s net gain with Drew Gooden’s positional statistics from last season while playing for the Bulls. At the power forward position, Gooden was a -4.4 PER drain on the team and an even worse -5.8 when playing the center position. Considering that these two players were swapped in the same trade, the statistical difference becomes even more clear.

Miller’s on/off court statistics from his time in Chicago were impressive as well. The on/off court statistics from 82games provides a comparison for how the team performs with a certain player on the court and how they performed without a player on the court. On a per-48 minute basis, the Bulls had a net gain of +7.2 points per-100 possessions. Chicago also had a net gain of +2.1 defensive rebounds per 100 possessions. In terms of per-100 possessions, these gains are actually quite significant.

In a nutshell, Game Six helps illustrate how valuable both Salmons and Brad Miller can be in the right system and with the right supporting cast. In hindsight, it is quite clear that Chicago hit the bulls eye with the trade that netted them Miller and Salmons from the Kings.

This past Saturday, the ever-present NBA trade rumors began to swirl again. This time talks were centered around one of the NBA’s biggest stars (literally), Shaquille O’Neal of the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns and the Cleveland Cavaliers are rumored to be engaged in preliminary trade talks that would send O’Neal to the Cavs for the expiring contracts of Ben Wallace ($14 million) and Sasha Pavlovic ($4.95 million with $1.5 million guaranteed). This is strictly a cost cutting move as far as the Suns are concerned.

The team does not want to go deep into luxury tax territory, especially considering that this is a team that failed to even reach the playoffs in 2009. Bloated with the league’s sixth largest payroll last season and an aging core of superstars, the Shaq trade could really help free up some money for Phoenix as well as allow them to return to their run and gun offense.

Here is the breakdown:

With O’Neal’s $20 million salary (but a $21 million salary-cap number due to a trade kicker), the trade could save the Suns $9.9 million or even more if Wallace wants a buyout. The trade would save the Suns $3.1 million in payroll and projected luxury tax. Cutting Pavlovic, who has $1.5 million guaranteed in his final contract year’s $4.95 million salary, could save another $6.8 million in payroll and tax.

From a straight basketball perspective this is a home run for the Cavaliers. The Cavs made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals this year but ultimately fell short of their goal of winning a championship. The Cavs were exposed for their lack of a true interior presence. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (whose foot is full of metal plates and screws from multiple surgeries) was nowhere near up to the task of providing a defensive answer to the man-child that is Dwight Howard in the paint.

Adding Shaq to the mix allows Cleveland to match-up with the Howards, the Elton Brands and the KGs of the Eastern Conference. They would immediately have a post presence to go to late in games when Mo Williams‘ and Delonte West’s jump shots aren’t falling.

Lebron James can’t possibly be expected to carry the offensive load every single night can he? Putting Shaq in the middle clogs the lane and gives you a legitimate defensive stopper as well as a more than capable offensive option (60% field goal percentage last season).

As evidenced by his time in Phoenix, Shaq’s biggest defensive flaw might be defending the pick-and-roll. However, he would still command double teams in the post freeing up the rest of the Cav’s shooters. Cleveland, with Shaq and a couple other key additions, would be in great position for a title run next season.

One thing is for sure though. Shaq still has a little diesel left in that huge tank of his.

Celtics forward Kevin Garnett had knee surgery earlier this week to remove bone spurs from his right knee.

The Celtics are expecting the now surgically repaired Kevin Garnett to be completely ready when training camp for the 2009-10 season begins.

Garnett underwent an arthroscopy yesterday at New England Baptist Hospital that included the removal of posterior bone spurs from his right knee. The surgery was performed by Celtics physician Brian McKeon, assisted by Michael Belkin and John Richmond.

An NBA source said Garnett, 33, is expected to be out 6-8 weeks. He is expected to do rehabilitation in Boston first before continuing it in his offseason home in Malibu, Calif.

Source: Boston Globe

This past season proved that the days of KG being a top ten fantasy draft pick are gone. However, he should probably still be taken in the second round of drafts but owners should not be expecting vintage Garnett lines. Although the article claims he will be ready by training camp, bone spurs tend to reoccur later on down the road during the grind of the regular season.

For Celtics fans, many questions remain. What if KG had been healthy this season? Can he withstand the grind of another NBA season, which has taken quite a toll on Garnett’s body over the years? Will the Big Ticket and Co. ever be admitted to the promised land again? As Garnett himself once said anything is possible, however, unfortunately for the Celtics possible does not mean probable.

With the top two seeds still alive and kicking in the Western Conference, both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets avoided upsets on their way to the Western Conference Finals. However, both teams took divergent routes this season to arrive at the same destination; the doorstep of the Promised Land.

For the Lakers, it seems as though their season was predestined from the moment training camp began. Kobe Bryant and company finished the season with the second best record in the league, second only to Eastern Conference power house, the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Lakers also sported high profile wins against some of the toughest competition this season and stole a game from the Cavs at the Q (39-2 record at home this season, with the Lakers being the only team able to dethrone the King at home;  The Philadelphia 76′ers beat the Cavaliers at home in the final game of the season by one point with Lebron James in street clothes).

For the Nuggets, the season started ominously with the front office kicking Marcus Camby to the curb for peanuts (well, salary cap relief). At that time, the Nuggets faithful were despairing the loss of their defensive anchor for nothing in return. Little did they know that the front office had an ace up their sleeve and would pull-off one of the best trades since the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol from Memphis last season.

In what has proven to be a franchise-altering move, the Nuggets shipped out Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess (who was ultimately waived and re-signed with Detroit for a better shot at winning a title… whoops). Since that time, the Nuggets have gone from possible lottery team to legitimate championship contender. If Allen Iverson truly is the Answer, the Denver Nuggets certainly weren’t interested in finding out what the question was. In contrast to the Lakers, this team has had to prove the doubters wrong every step of the way on their journey to being one of the last four teams standing.

So how do these two teams compare to one another?

Tale of the Tape: The Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 65-17
W-L%: .793
Rank: 2nd

The Lakers played consistently good basketball throughout the course of the regular season. Outside of Laker Nation, the Lakers probably didn’t get quite of enough credit for their accomplishments this season with Lebron James, and to a lesser extent Dwayne Wade and the Celtics’ Big Three garnering most of the media’s attention. They also maintained the best record in the West even with Andrew Bynum missing 32 games leading up to the playoffs.

Pace: 94.4, 5th
O-Rating: 112.7, 3rd
D-Rating: 104.6, 6th
Differential: +8.1 (O-Rating minus D-Rating)

Of the numerous basketball cliches out there, one in particular describes this Lakers team when they are firing on all cylinders. It is the well known saying that ‘their defense creates their offense.’  But for this Lakers squad it really holds true, with Trevor Ariza leading the charge (and earning himself a nice raise in the process going into free agency this season). Ariza, who is the Lakers’ defense personified, gets into the passing lanes, pushes the tempo and finishes way above the rim without ever giving up on a play. When Ariza and the Lakers play inspired basketball, they are really an exciting team to watch.

Offensively, you cannot overlook three time champion and former MVP Kobe Bryant. He draws a huge amount of attention from opposing teams’ defenses and makes life much easier for his teammates to get high-percentage looks. At the same time though, last season’s key acquisition, Pau Gasol, has made it much easier for Bryant to get good looks as well. Having Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum as your backup weapons makes the Lakers a very dangerous team. Add in great perimeter shooting and you have a team that punishes you for doubling to try and stop Bryant. They truly make you pick your poison.

First Round, v. UTA: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. HOU: 4-3

In the first round of the playoffs, the Lakers took care of business fairly efficiently in taking five games to dispatch of the Utah Jazz. However, the conference semifinals provided the Lakers with a much bigger challenge in the Tracy McGrady-less Houston Rockets. When Yao Ming went down for the season after game three, the Lakers and everyone else in the world counted the young and injured team out of the running.

The trouble for the Lakers was that the Rockets didn’t get the memo that everyone else in the world got that the series was over and they played like their (playoff) lives depended on it.  The simple fact that it took the Lakers seven games to move past the Rockets (refer to Lebron James, Mo Williams and the rest of the Cavs to see what a championship team truly looks like) has given legitimacy to the argument that this team is mentally focused enought to win a championship. However the 2007-08 Celtics didn’t exactly cruise to victory against the Hawks or Cavaliers in the first two rounds of the playoffs either.

Tale of the Tape: The Denver Nuggets

Record: 54-28
W-L%: .659
Rank: 5th

The Nuggets played like an entirely different team this season by both addition by subtraction and also by, well, addition. The Nuggets gained by subtracting Allen Iverson, who is the epitome of a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer in decline. Iverson is unwilling to admit that he can no longer carry a team on his back and unable to accept any lesser role. This is probably the ultimate chemistry killer in the locker room. Billups, in an absolute contrast to AI, is the consummate professional and a savvy, championship proven veteran (they don’t call him Mr. Big Shot for nothing). You replace an undersized and disgruntled shoot-first point guard with a professional, pass-first floor general who demands a commitment to defense from his teammates and you have a vastly improved Nuggets squad this year.

Pace: 94.3, 6th
O-Rating: 110.4, 7th
D-Rating: 106.8, 8th
Differential: +3.6

Much like the Lakers, the Nuggets play high tempo basketball and especially push the ball and force the issue on their home court. Defensively, both Nene and Kenyon Martin play physical defense in the paint and tend to force jump shooting big men like Dirk Nowitzki out of their element (although to Dirk’s credit he played phenomenal basketball against Denver in the Western Conference Semifinals). What really stands out when looking over this Denver Nuggets squad is that they played great team defense, which is exactly what they’ll need to do to try and limit Kobe Bryant. Dahntay Jones, despite earning minutes from George Karl based on his perimeter defense, is simply over-matched against Bryant. It must be a concentrated and carefully executed five man strategy if you hope to stop the Black Mamba.

Offensively, this team is a true partnership with Billups and Carmelo Anthony sharing the leadership onus for this team. Billups calls the plays and initiates the offense while Melo is the finisher. Off the bench, J.R. Smith provides instant fire and has matured from playing alongside Billups (although he is still J.R. Smith so keep that in mind). He is prone to occasionally taking ill-advised jumpers or pull-up threes. But when this guy is on, he can absolutely make it rain. Smith is the true X-Factor for the Nuggets offense.

First Round, v. NOH: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. DAL: 4-1

Melo could not being player better basketball this postseason (27.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists on 48/45/83 percent shooting). Him and Dirk really battled last series with Anthony rising to the challenge and hitting big baskets when they mattered most. Chauncey Billups is right there alongside Melo in terms of playoff production (22.1 points, 7.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds on 49/54/96 percent shooting) and impact on ball games. As a result, the Nuggets made quick work of both the Hornets and the Mavericks along the way.

Regular Season Matchups

The Lakers and Nuggets played four regular season games this year, with the Lakers holding the 3-1 advantage. But upon closer examination, the team’s head-to-head play is not so clear-cut.

• Game One: 11/01/08. Lakers 104, Nuggets 97 (No Billups).
• Game Two: 11/21/08. Nuggets 90, Lakers 104.
• Game Three: 02/27/09. Lakers 79, Nuggets 90 (No Bynum).
• Game Four: 04/09/09. Nuggets 102, Lakers 116.

One of the Lakers’ three wins came against an Iverson-led Nuggets team, which, as discussed earlier, is essentially a different team. Empty win, Lakers 0-0. The second Lakers win was played out by two teams at full strength. Lakers 1-0. The third game involves a Bynum-less Lakers team, which is a different team as well. Lakers 1-0. The fourth and final game was again played out at full strength and again resulted in a Lakers win. Lakers 2-0.

Slam dunk, the Lakers are going to sweep the Nuggets in this series then, right? Not so fast. If you look at regular season games one through four again, paying particular attention to home court (the second team listed above was the home team), the Lakers two wins at full strength were both at the Staples Center. The two games that were thrown out for missing key players both occurred in Denver, where Denver is much more likely to play better basketball. While not providing hard evidence in favor of Denver winning the series, these few games definitely don’t give me any reason to count out the Denver Nuggets yet.

Position Battles

Point Guard: Advantage Nuggets. Hands down, and it’s not even close. Billups is a vastly superior floor general to Derek Fisher, although Billups is a better defensive assignment for Fish than Aaron Brooks proved to be last series. Fisher was absolutely embarrassed at times by Brooks’ speed and looked his age (34). Not to take anything away from Fisher, who is a great piece for the Lakers, but  he is clearly overmatched here.

Shooting Guard: Advantage Lakers. Hands down, and it’s not even close (again). I’m sorry but Bryant is better than Dahntay Jones and J.R. Smith combined. You better hope that Smith is ready to play lock-down defense, because Jones will be into early foul trouble in at least a couple of games in this series. One of the top five players on the planet and a nightmare to guard.

Small Forward: Advantage Nuggets. Again, not to take anything away from Trevor Ariza, but Anthony is clearly the better player. Ariza’s quickness may get the better of Melo at times, but Anthony’s strength will likewise cause problems for Trevor on the defensive end. Melo has forced his name into the discussion of best players in the postseason and I fully expect that trend to continue in the immediate future.

Power Forward: Advantage Lakers. Kenyon Martin is a very physical defender and could possibly cause Pau Gasol to lose his focus and start trying to get the referee’s ear. However, Gasol can stretch the floor and play with his back to the basket with equal skill. Martin is much more limited offensively which allows Gasol to conserve more of his energy for the offensive end.

Center: Push. Bynum has not fully proven that he is healthy and ready to be a factor in this series. Sure, he did play much improved basketball in the later games of the Rockets series, but he was also playing against a team without a true center or anyone who can body up on him (he is a beast). Nene has also not proven that he can be a consistent factor on the road in the post season, which is of crucial importance if the Nuggets hope to have a chance at upsetting the Lakers.

Bench: Push. This is a hard decision to make. Chris ‘the Birdman’ Andersen is the heart and sould of this Nuggets team and he, like Ariza, has earned himself a nice raise this season heading into free agency. He gets the crowd in the game. He blocks shots and alters way more shots than he actually touches. He provides highlight reel finishes in the open court. Besides him, the Nuggets have Anthony Carter, J.R. Smith and Linas Klieza to provide quality minutes.

The Lakers also have an extremely solid bench with depth at every position. Lamar Odom, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton all provide production off the bench and can step in if an injury were to occur to a starting teammate. The Lakers generally only need Odom and other of these guys to have a big game and they are virtually unbeatable. The bench (more so than even the Bynum v. Nene matchup) will be hugely important in this series.

Final Questions

Which team will show the mental toughtness of a championship team, even through adversity?

Can the Denver Nuggets overcome the Lakers’ home court advantage?

Where will game four be played?