Basketball Free For All

The All Star break is always a good time to start reviewing and analyzing the current season, as we are starting to acquire large enough of a sample size to begin to make decent judgments. With the season over 60 percent complete, the Coach of the Year (COTY) race is starting to take shape, with two coaches in particular rising above the rest of the pack: Atlanta’s Mike Woodson and Oklahoma City’s Scott Brooks. However, this season there are a decent number of qualified coaches so we’ll break down the other hopefuls and also examine the COTY’s recent (and in some ways dubious) history to get a full picture of this season’s race.

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After week twelve, we’ve officially reached the half-way point of the regular season, which means it is mid-season adjustment time. Now is a perfect time to evaluate your team’s cumulative performance and assess your strengths and weaknesses. For head-to-head leagues, check your punting strategy and consider whether it makes sense to adjust your strategy going forward. For roto leagues, now might be time to consider big trades to shore up any weaknesses. Any team can be improved with the right moves; just don’t make the classic mistake of making a move for the sake of, well, making a move.

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Every year there are players who will begin the season at a torrid pace. They rebound, steal, block and shoot their way to the top of the fantasy rankings right out of the gate. Conversely, on the less exciting side, there are also players you drafted early hoping they will have a stellar season for your team only to find out that they are anything but the great player you had hoped for.

This dichotomy can be so maddening for some owners that it will cause them to make rash decisions that savvy managers can exploit for their own selfish purposes (winning). Everyone likes a good deal and the fantasy community is no different. If you can find a manager who is tired of watching one of their star players under-perform, offer him a trade for a player(s) of less clout. The idea is to trade for a top-notch type player while he is at his statistical worst, buy low. Or trade away your over-achiever for a slumping stud, sell high.

The Buy Low

Before any trades are proposed, you need to consider a few things about the player(s) you are giving up as well as the player(s) you are receiving. When buying low, consider that you are essentially hunting in the bargain-bin at your local thrift store. The items (players) may have been nice at one time but now are used and a little worn out.

A few things to consider. Is the player coming off a down season that was an anomaly when compared to the rest of his career? Think Josh Smith last year, a year where he had career-lows in basically every statistical category (points, blocks, assists, rebounds) versus his play this year. Hopefully that year was just that, an anomaly, and the player will hopefully bounce back to his previous success of seasons past. Also, consider any injury history. Any player coming off of a major injury or surgery is surely going to have his value discounted at draft time. Finally, the true buy low player, a guy who just flat-out is not playing well at all but has a strong past track record to use as a reference point.

Here are a few buy low candidates to consider early on in the season.

The Injured Player. Kevin Martin and Chris Paul are two fantastic fantasy players that are viable buy low candidates at this point in the season and illustrate the injury aspect well.  No one wants to have an injured player on their roster. Its no fun watching one of your premier players accumulate zeros across the board night after night. After a few days or weeks of having to sit through an injury it can be beneficial to approach a slumping manager with a trade proposal for an injured star.

The other K-Mart has a hairline fracture in his left wrist that required surgery on November 9th. He is due out anywhere from 6-8 weeks but could be out longer as he doesn’t have the best track record for staying healthy. Owners needing a lift in threes, points, and free throw percentage may want to make a play for him. With a guy like Martin, it may make sense to wait a while to let the owner’s frustration grow to the breaking point.

Chris Paul is also out of action due to an ankle sprain and the initial prognoses is that he will be out for approximately one month. Making a trade proposal for CP3 requires a little bit more effort and tact. It is no easy process to get an owner to give up his number one pick, let alone the first or second overall pick in the draft. Paul is most likely only out a few weeks not an extended period so one would have to give up a quality player(s) that are not only healthy but are also producing top tier value. The key here is to not go too overboard in who you are willing to give up. Sure Paul can easily win a number of categories and possibly it all for your team but he isn’t worth it if you have to strip your roster to the bear bones just to acquire him. If Paul’s owner is losing bad it could benefit you to make a play for him ASAP while he is still out for a few weeks and the owner is still antsy to get a productive body in his lineup.

This type of buy low is especially effective when tried on managers at the bottom of the standings. They are more likely to be willing to deal an injured stud for lesser value in order to keep from falling too far behind and out of the playoff hunt.

The Player Returning from Injury. Pretty self explanatory here. Target a player who is just getting ready or has just returned from injury. Anytime a player has an injury that forces them to miss extended amounts of time, he usually comes back rusty and has a few bad games early on. Currently, there are multiple players that fit this bill including Kevin Love, Eric Gordon and Pau Gasol. Gordon and Love are still injured but are due back sooner rather than later and Gasol should be back to return Thursday night against the Bulls.

All three players are productive and can help virtually any team. When they do finally suit up, be sure to monitor their first couple of games. If they start out slow, send a trade proposal to open up tentative trade talks (nothing insulting). Most likely they will regain their form in a few games and will be right back to where they were before their injury. Just don’t wait too long because once they do fully recover, their value will drastically increase and your opportunity to buy low will be closed forcing you to pay full market value to obtain him.

Note: Be more cautious with major structural injuries that require months of rehabilitation as effects can often linger. Think Elton Brand trying to come back from his Achilles injury over the past couple of seasons.

The Slumping Player. Simple, go after any player who is performing below their career averages or your expected averages for this season. The idea here is the law of averages. If a player has performed at a certain (high) level for many years and is currently under-performing, he most likely will pick his game up at some point and eventually will end up performing at or near his career averages. A few players to consider under this model are Brand, Jose Calderon, Thaddeus Young and John Salmons.

All are in major slumps compared to their historical production and could be had on the cheap (well Brand’s window may be closed after his vintage performance against the Bobcats last night: 19 points on .471/.750 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 6 blocks and 1 turnover). One major caveat here is to be careful for a player currently slumping that also just signed a major extension, think Luol Deng in 2008-09, minus the stress fracture. Sometimes players just don’t have that fire in them after the big pay day and it can affect their entire season. For an excellent more in-depth article on Salmons,  check out the latest Great Debate piece.

Other buy lows to consider: Caron Butler, Al Jefferson.

The Sell High

If one of your players is playing such great basketball that it seems unlikely that he will continue to keep pace, then selling high is your best option to get positive returns on your player investment.

The Injury Fill-In. Anytime a starter goes down he opens up a spot for a bench player to shine. They can often be great pick-ups for the short term but will quickly lose their value once the starter returns. One player to unload immediately, like as in yesterday, is Andray Blatche. With a Basketball Monster rank of 65th overall in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 53rd overall in per game value, Blatche’s value is as high as it ever will be. Antawn Jamison is back from a shoulder injury and the party is officially over for Andray. In Jamison’s first game back, Blatche had 6 points and zero rebounds in just over 17 minutes.

Rookies. Rookies have become more intriguing over the past couple of years and are capable of making an immediate fantasy impact. Guys like O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose had managers salivating last season. This year, Tyreke Evans, Blake Griffin (even though he hasn’t even played a game yet) and Brandon Jennings have all been hot commodities. Jennings in particular appears to have been the steal of the draft (in both real life and in fantasy) with an average draft position of 126th overall in Yahoo! leagues. His 55 point outburst against Golden State last week got everyone’s attention and if you are skeptical of his ability to continue at such a high rate, now is the time to start shopping him. His current Ziguana rank is 15th overall. I’m not saying he won’t be great the rest of the year because he easily can be, but consider that it is early in a long season.

Rookies are not used to the physical demands of the NBA and its grueling 82 game schedule. The fabled “rookie wall” is very important to consider. Usually sometime mid-season around the 45-50 game mark, rookies start to slow down and their production drops. It is part of the game, learning how to keep your body healthy for the length of the season and rookies sometimes forget that the season is a marathon not a sprint. Watch out for the rookie wall and consider selling high before it happens to your rooks, especially if you can get a proven stud in return.

The Injury-Prone Player. The classic sell high candidate is the injury-prone player. A guy who always seems to miss time each season but is a strong player when healthy. To look at it from another perspective, they have high per game values but low cumulative values. There are  many players that fall into this category and it can often be tough to cut ties with a player who is playing to his full potential. This season there have been a number of players you could label as injury-prone who are healthy and are rewarding their owners.

Two of the best example are Staples Center big men Chris Kaman and Andrew Bynum. Over the past two seasons combined, they have missed 77 and 79 games respectively. But this year they are both healthy so far and are producing a per game Ziguana rank of 49th and 12th overall, respectively. When they are healthy they can carry your team in blocks and rebounding while providing solid percentages and points. But with multiple, serious injuries in the past, their durability is definitely an issue to consider. Kaman seems to have found his rhythm and is playing very well. Ongoing nagging injuries and simply being old could keep Marcus Camby “day-to-day” for longer than expected making Kaman’s production sustainable for the foreseeable future. Even with Blake Griffin due back next month from injury, expect Kaman’s value to hold strong. Bynum is a little more of a wild card. Two major knee surgeries in the past are signs owners might be a little scared of. However his 20.3 points on .591/.717 percent shooting, 0.0 threes,  11.8 rebounds 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.8 blocks and 2.3 turnovers make Bynum a major sell high candidate, just be sure you get quality value in return for the young center. Also, just remember that Bynum has posted these numbers with Pau on the floor this season, which is another reason to consider selling high on Andrew.

Other sell highs to consider: Marc Gasol, Channing Frye.

Few issues divide the fantasy fanatics these days more decisively than the Elton Brand conundrum. As in the I drafted Elton Brand now what the hell do I do with him conundrum. Those fortunate enough to not have drafted Brand remain on the sidelines trying to determine whether or not to target EB as a suitable buy low candidate.

Newcomers to fantasy basketball may not understand all the man-love and hype surrounding Brand. Over the prior two season, Elton played a total of 37 games, posting averages of 14.6 points on .449/.710 percent shooting, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.3 turnovers. Solid, for sure, but nothing to pine over. However, many managers have a strong affinity to owning Brand after some monster seasons in the not so distant past (Andrei Kirilenko, anyone?).

Step into the time machine and take a look at Brand’s 2005-06 season, which is probably the finest of  his career, during which he played 79 games logging just under 40 minutes per. He posted 24.7 points on .527/.775 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 10.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.5 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. I’ll take two, please. Current Brand owners are hoping for a return to the dominant, first round stud of yesteryear. Although at this point, they’d definitely settle for third round production.

What’s not up for debate is the fact that Brand’s production has fallen off, and significantly so. This season, Brand’s averages are 10.1 points on .452/.833 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 5.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. These averages are good for 133rd in per game value according to Basketball Monster and 131st in per game value according to Ziguana. Pretty tough for a guy that was drafted 39th overall on average in Yahoo! leagues.

What is up for debate is the reason for Brand’s decreased production this season and his future outlook. There are two competing theories to explain his output this season, both of which are not mutually exclusive. Theory one is that Brand is old and his major injuries have permanently limited his ability to play basketball at the highest level. The second theory is that he simply isn’t fitting into Eddie Jordan’s Princeton offense. The two theories, however, do lead to different conclusions about the possible career trajectory for EB.

Theory One: Old and Injured

In basketball years, 30 means you qualify for AARP membership and can no longer relate to the youths. Your run isn’t necessarily over, but time is most definitely no longer on your side. There are some players that can play effectively late into life (John Stockton comes to mind), but big men with a history of serious injuries do not exactly fit the Stockton mold.

But what injuries did Brand suffer and how serious were they?

Brand has suffered four major injuries in his eleven seasons playing professional basketball. Over his first eight seasons, Brand missed a total of 50 games while suffering two moderate injuries. Brand’s first stint on the injured reserve list came in 2002-03 when he suffered a stress fracture in his left leg and missed 18 games. Brand’s second stint on the injured reserve list occurred the next season when he missed 13 of the Clippers’ first games with a hairline stress fracture of his right foot.

These two injuries early in Brand’s career were nothing too out of the ordinary for a big man playing physical basketball in the paint. However, everything would change for Brand in August 2007.

In the latest nasty injury blow for the Los Angeles Clippers, cornerstone forward Elton Brand ruptured his left Achilles tendon on Friday during his usual daily workout.

Brand, 28, is expected to undergo surgery next week and joins teammate Shaun Livingston on the list of long-term injury victims for the Clippers. Achilles tendon injuries typically sideline NBA players for at least a year, which would theoretically threaten Brand’s availability for all of the 2007-08 season.

Source: ESPN

Rupturing the Achilles tendon is a devastating injury and can sap the explosiveness of an athlete, potentially permanently. There is not even consensus on the best treatment for a ruptured Achilles. This type of injury is so devastating that there is even an online community dedicated to bringing together people who are recovering from a ruptured Achilles. The result for Brand was a disappointing 2007-08 campaign in which he only played in eight, mediocre games. If you stashed EB on your bench for most of the 2007-08 season, you probably lost. My condolences.

After a frustrating 2007-08 season, Brand bailed on the Clippers for greener pastures playing in Philadelphia. He was the marquee free agent signing of the summer of 2008, inking a five year, $80 million dollar deal. At the time, the Brand signing was widely seen as the piece that would push the Sixers from pretenders to contenders. Unfortunately for Elton, fate had other plans for him last season.

After a less than perfect union between Brand and the Sixers early on, the major injury bug would strike again. This time, Brand suffered a dislocated shoulder while committing a foul against the Bucks’ rookie forward out of UCLA, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. After missing 16 games, Brand returned for a handful of games before re-aggravating his injured shoulder. This time, he opted for season-ending surgery on his right shoulder.

That brings us to the current-day Elton Brand.

With these recent injuries, both have the potential to impact Brand’s ability to play basketball at the level at which he played in the 2005-06 season. Although there have been no reports confirming this fact (and why would the team choose to release this information anyways?), Brand’s range of motion and ability to hit mid range jumpers could be affected by his shoulder injuries last season. Elton is right-handed and his dislocated shoulder was his right shoulder. This would expect us to see lower shooting efficiency (check) and less rebounds (check). Circumstantial evidence seems to support the idea that Brand’s shoulder injury has left him with a  limited range of motion, but we can’t know for sure.

As far as the Achilles rupture, Brand’s tendon should be similarly as strong as it was prior to injury while the risk of re-rupture should be almost non-existant.

Mendelbaum and colleagues showed that those undergoing direct repair lost only 2.6% of their strength when undergoing isokinetic testing and that 92% of athletes were able to return to their respective sports at a similar level at 6 months postoperatively.

Source: Medscape.com

However, there is a problem. The size of Brand’s calf muscle is noticeably smaller since the injury. Apparently, he suffered a lot of muscle atrophy which he hasn’t as yet been able to fully regain. A comparison could be made to Dominique Wilkins who suffered through an identical injury – Achilles tear and differently sized calf muscle.  He went on to make a successful comeback earning two more All-star appearances.

What differentiates Brand from ‘nique is that he’s never relied on fantastic athleticism.  Once Wilkins was able to rehab his tendon extremely well, he was able to showcase his talents (or almost all of it) again.  On the other hand, for Brand, his game has been centered more around power. It is quite conceivable that the missing strength in Brand’s calf is having some influence on his game. In reading the aforementioned article, Brand finishes it by saying that “it’s still coming.” This obviously is an admittance he’s not able to do the same stuff he was prior to the Achilles rupture.

If you accept the conclusions of Theory One, EB’s possible career trajectory is average at best and pathetic at worst. Brand is destined to be an extremely highly paid role player, one that people will never believe a franchise was stupid enough to give an $80 million contract to. If you find yourself in this camp, do not attempt to buy low on Brand and if you already own him, cut your losses and sell him for whatever you can get. Every fantasy league has a Brand optimist or two.

Theory Two: System/Coach

According to this viewpoint, Brand’s pitiful production this season is more a result of poor coaching and a mismatch between player and system. Under this theory, Eddie Jordan and his motion offense are the antagonists and Brand is simply caught in the crossfire. There are a few variations on this general theory but the basic themes remain the same.

The first variation is that Coach Jordan is not getting Brand the shots he wants, where he wants them while playing him limited minutes. It seems plausible at first, especially if you’ve watched some of Philadelphia’s games this season. But if you look at the shot selection data from Brand’s vintage season, 2005-06, and compare it to the current season, some remarkable similarities emerge.

If you look at the percentage of attempts of different types of shots, you see that Brand is taking different types of shots at about the same rate now as in 2005-06. In his vintage season, 70 percent of EB’s shots were jump shots, versus 71 percent now. The similarity between percentage of shot attempts holds true for close (24 percent versus 23 percent now), dunks (4 percent versus 6 percent now) and tips (2 percent versus 0 percent now). In 2005-06, 30 percent of Brand’s attempts were from close range versus 29 percent now. Thus, the shot selection data from 82 Games does not support the claim of vastly different shot selection between Brand’s vintage seasons and now.

Looking more closely at the data, a couple of differences emerge. Brand v2009 had more of his shots blocked than Brand v2005, which actually provides mild support for Theory One. However, the truly interesting numbers are the assisted percentage number. This reflects the percentage of shot attempts that were setup by EB’s teammates. Across the board, these numbers are down in the current season meaning Brand has more responsibility to create his own shot. If you read between the lines, you come to the conclusion that EB might be struggling with having to create his own shots without a pure point guard on the roster.

Moreover, isn’t it curious that Brand is easily seeing the lowest minutes he’s ever had in his career (a little over 27)?  It’s especially confusing when you consider how much better the team performs when he is ON the floor. This, supports the idea that Brand’s struggles are related to the system and minutes that Coach Jordan has employed in the early goings this season.

The second variation is that Eddie Jordan is playing two post players (Brand along with either Samuel Dalembert or Marreese Speights) when the basics of the Princeton offense dictate it should be only one. Currently, Brand has logged the majority of his minutes at the four. This variation insists that Brand is being utilized ineffectively and that sliding him to the five where he can play closer to the basket where he can work on the low block. There may be some that point to the 82 Games stats by position. However, it must be pointed out that this data is based upon a very small sample size (around 10 total minutes of Brand at C). Take with large doses of salt.

If you buy either of these variations of Theory Two, Brand’s possible career trajectory is much rosier. The solution to the Elton Brand conundrum is simply adjust the offensive scheme or give Eddie the boot. Installing a system more suitable to the 80 million dollar man would correct a lot of the problems with Brand this season. If you fall into this camp and do not buy Theory One, Brand is a serious buy low candidate (depending upon your outlook for Jordan figuring it out or getting the axe).

Conclusion

Depending on which theory you buy into, last season’s marquee offseason signing, Elton Brand, ranges from a decent signing who has had a rough start in the City of Brotherly Love to a mediocre player with an absolute albatross of a contract. With such a large contract and these being tough economic times and all, Brand’s huge contract means he is most likely staying put for better or worse.

In the end, no one except maybe Elton Brand himself really knows whether Theory One or Theory Two is true. We each have the burden of examining the facts and interpreting them based upon our own personal observations. In the end, the onus is on each fantasy manager to come to his own conclusions for the reasons for Brand’s disappointing play and his possible career trajectory.

As a result of his disappointing play, Brand is catching lots of flack for his paycheck versus his production. Really, the blame for this unfortunate situation falls squarely on the Sixers front office for giving him so much money after a devastating Achilles injury and without seeing him play at a high level for a sustained period. For this reason, Brand should not be remembered for his Achilles but rather for his role as Atlas, destined to carry the load of the Philly faithful or to be crushed trying.