Basketball Free For All

Wondering what will be the effects of all the major deals prior to today’s deadline?  Well, worry no more as Justin and I are here to help clear up any confusion.  I’ll handle the relevant fantasy perspective while Justin will tackle the realistic implications in a subsequent article.  If we happen to miss anything or you simply have a question, as always, feel free to leave a comment below.

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Yet another week has passed and there were more changes to the fantasy landscape.  Chris Paul, Travis Outlaw, Josh Howard, Kelenna Azubuike and Marreese Speights went down this week.  Meanwhile, Pau Gasol, Eric Gordon, Courtney Lee and Troy Murphy continued their Mr. Invisible impressions.  At least Antwan Jamison and Rashard Lewis will be sure to return this week.  Also, can’t go without mentioning Brandon Jennings.  He is the reason why NBA League Pass just might be worth it as it’s highly unlikely most of us will even have an opportunity to watch Bucks’ games.

Week Four Schedules

Four Games: ATL, CHA, CLE, DET, HOU, IND, MIA, MIL, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, TOR

Three Games: BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, LAC, LAL, MEM, NJN, NYK, PHI, PHI, SAC, SAS, UTA, WAS

Two Games: MIN

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Will Bynum – He’s got a juicy four game schedule and both  Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton are not expected to play during the road trip.  Although Bynum’s numbers will likely take a hit when Rip gets back, he still might be worth owning as he’ll probably still get around 25 minutes a game and contribute decent scoring stats, assists and steals.

Toney Douglas – Over the last week, Toney has been the Knicks best guard.  It’s not saying much when you check the competition but it is very noteworthy.  D’Antoni’s grey is becoming more noticeable by the day and he’s tired of it.  Currently, he is re-evaluating the entire rotation and it is expected he’ll go with the youth.  I expect Toney to continue to get strong playing time and help fantasy owners in scoring stats, efficiency and steals.

Rudy Fernandez/Martell Webster – Funny how in one week Martell goes from the drop list to the add list.  Thanks Outlaw!  With Travis sidelined for at least 6 weeks, both of these guys will probably be worth owning.  Martell has a golden opportunity to really seize some time as it’s not expected the Blake/Miller/Roy trio to continue starting.  If Webster is able to start knocking his shot down with any regularity, he’ll put up very serviceable numbers across the board.  Rudy on the other hand is a perfect fit for the 6th man so that should continue.  However, his minutes are going to get a bump up so nab him if you really need help with 3’s and steals.

Chris Douglas-Roberts – He licked the swine flu in no time and has already logged 35 minutes in the Nets last game.  Pick him up if he’s available because the Nets are in dire need of his potential contributions.  He’ll be rewarding owners as soon as this coming week in points, efficiency, steals and rebounds.

Thabo Sefolosha – There is no denying it, he has a major role in the Thunder’s rotation because of his defensive abilities.  It’s a great sign that he’s still been getting a ton of time even though his shot has been way off of late (6-25 in the last 4 games).  While he’ll never be a volume shooter, he will help fantasy managers in 3’s, boards and defensive categories.

CUT LIST

DJ Augustin – Seems DJ is going through the motions of a second year player.  There were high hopes entering the season but he’s gotten off to a slow start and it appears Larry Brown won’t help him.  The other night, DJ took a shot off a pick and roll instead of passing to the open player and Coach promptly yanked him.  With Raja Bell attempting to play through his injuries and Flip Murray back, Augustin will be pressed to find consistent minutes.

Chris Duhon – Chris was never meant to be a fantasy relevant player, but that changed the day he put on a Knick uniform.  While he has the ability to put up some nice numbers on occasion, he hasn’t even been close thus far this season.  D’Antoni hasn’t kicked him to the curb yet, but I expect the next game or two to be a nice barometer for the next few months.  If he shows signs of snapping out of it, hang on to him as Coach will undoubtedly stick with him.  If not, send him packing.

Josh Howard - Well that didn’t take long.  Howard is already out indefinitely with rumors claiming he’ll be out until the end of December.  Considering the surgery was back in May and he’s still not right, I don’t suggest standard leagues to stick by this brittle body.

WATCH LIST

Darren Collison – Darren might be a nice plug in option for at least this upcoming week, but I’m not sold on him.  He struggled in his first start against the Hawks and scary as it sounds, Bobby Brown outplayed him.  It’s easy to envision him going from a bad game to average to bad to good to bad again.  Also, after this week, the Hornets will have two straight weeks of just 2 games so I assume there should be a better interim option out there at this time.

JJ Hickson – The Cavaliers moved him into the starting lineup to shake things up a bit after a disappointing start to the year.  Somewhat surprisingly, JJ has come through with flying colors.  In their last game against Utah, he put up 20 points, but more importantly, he received 38 minutes on the floor.  If this continues, then he’ll most likely be worthy of ownership in standard sized leagues.

Marcus Thornton - Last week, I had him in my Deep League Specials section, but this week he gets a bump up.  It’s no secret that the Hornets are struggling especially on the offensive end.  Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, Devin Brown and James Posey have looked awful too many times.  With Jeff Bower responsible for drafting Marcus, I believe he’ll get his share of chances at significant playing time rewarding owners with points, 3’s, FT% and steals.

STAY THE COURSE

Andris Biedrins – Horrid start for sure.  Combine that with a lousy back injury that seemed to be perpetuated by Nellie’s lack of sense, he’s giving fantasy owners absolutely nothing right now.  However, according to Ziguana,  he put up Round 5 value last season.  Considering the Warriors have no other viable center, he’ll jump back into the rotation once he’s deemed healthy.

John Salmons – He couldn’t have gotten off to a worst start – under 32% from the field thus far.  However, don’t make the mistake on either dropping him or selling low as he’s a proven efficient shooter.  Despite his struggles, he’s averaging 38 minutes a game so it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a valuable asset on your team.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Eddy Curry, Jordan Hill – I’ve got a strong feeling one of these two guys will be relevant as soon as this coming week.  David Lee at center seems worse than last year as his opposition is running layup drills around him.  With Darko Milicic apparently not a factor, one can expect D’Antoni to next look to these two guys.  Hill has shown flashes of late that he’s got some game but he still has a number of things to learn (as indicated by his foul rate).  Curry has been a laughing stock for such a long time but the Knicks are desperate.  He’s lost a ton of weight and might be serviceable until his next injury.

CJ Watson – In the world of Nellie, even fodder can turn into gold.  Not surprisingly, Stephen Curry has already landed on the end of the bench so CJ has been able to receive some fantastic minutes the last two games (27 and 34).  Subsequently, he has taken full advantage of it by playing very well and there is a decent chance it’ll continue in the short term.

This is the second installment of BFFA’s injury risk series for the upcoming season (now only days away). As in Part One, the same disclaimers apply; not all in injury prone players will be covered and the criteria to determine who is an injury risk is not an exact science. Let’s take a look at a couple of Eastern Conference point guards in the latest edition of Injury Risks.

First up is New Jersey floor general Devin Harris. Harris burst onto the fantasy scene last year after being a backup in Dallas for a number of years. In his first full season as a starter for the Nets, Devin provided an extremely potent stat line for his fantasy owners, averaging 21.3 points on .438/.820 percent shooting, 0.9 threes, 6.9 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 0.2 blocks and 3.1 turnovers. This year he is definitely not under the radar anymore and will be gone by the end of the second round in most leagues (Buser Sports average draft position of 18th overall and 24th in Yahoo! drafts). His production and value cannot be questioned but his ability to stay on the court can be.

Its only preseason but the past few weeks the word out of New Jersey has been that Harris has already been bothered by a few minor injuries. Currently, Harris is rehabbing a strained groin muscle sustained on Tuesday, which should keep him out a game or two of preseason action. He has also rolled his right ankle and sprained his left ankle already this preseason.

So for those of you keeping track, this is injury number three before we have even begun playing games that matter. Speaking recently about his injuries, Harris seems to be almost content to just be injured for an unspecified time, almost as if he is used to being hurt.

“I can only control what I can control on the floor,” Harris said of his reputation for being injury-prone. “Things happen. I don’t know why they happen. You put all the time in the summer. Sometimes nagging things happen.”

And as for his occasional tendency to turn the art of basketball into demolition derby, he replied, “That’s my thing. That’s just what I do. That’s how I play. I enjoy doing it. I enjoy the contact…”Small nagging ones like this, no,” Harris said. “Usually I’m like the big hurt.”

Source: New Jersey Star-Ledger

It seems like he is warming fans up to the idea that he is definitely not going to be playing anywhere near 82 games this season. His ability to be a fantasy standout comes from his quickness and his agility, which allows him to blow by opposing guards get into the lane and either score or earn a trip to the charity stripe. He is not an elite shooter (career 45 percent from the field), so his tendency for ankle and hamstring injuries really limits his explosiveness and therefore his effectiveness.

He has only played in 80 games only once in his five year career (his third season, 2006-07). This came after missing 26 games the previous season including 24 of which that were directly attributable to  strained right quadriceps. The past two seasons he has played in 64 and 69 games, an average of 66.5 games per season. That is an awfully low average for a number one point guard and could easily put your hopes of having a shiny fantasy trophy in jeopardy.

The next injury risk we will be touching on in this installment is another small-ish point guard, T.J. Ford. This year, Ford has a new lease on life. He no longer has to share the point guard duties with Jarrett Jack, who was shipped to Toronto (although Earl Watson was acquired). This season, the Pacers are his team to run and he seems ready to make full use of his new-found health and permanent starter status.

Ford had a career year last season while splitting time at the point with Jack; he averaged 14.9 points on .452/.872 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 5.3 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.4 turnovers. He also managed to stay healthy and played in 74 games, the second most of his career (he played in 75 his third season). He is slowly moving up draft boards this year (Buser Sports average draft position of 94.2) and is a highly targeted middle tier PG.

With his new-found starter status comes some fantasy disclaimers. Ford has a long list of very serious health problems to consider before drafting. He is afflicted with a condition known as spinal stenosis, which is a narrowing of the openings of the vertebra the spinal cord runs through. This condition causes a great amount of inflammation and pain in the back, obviously not good for a professional basketball player. This condition attributed to Ford missing the playoffs and the final 26 games of his rookie season in Milwaukee after he suffered a bruised spinal cord.

His other injuries are numerous. He went on to miss his entire sophomore campaign while recovering from neck surgery in 2004-05. He missed six games in ‘07 as the result of a “stinger” sustained to his left arm after colliding with Josh Howard. Then in December of 2007 while playing with the Raptors, Ford was the recipient of a hard flagrant foul by Al Horford which caused his head to be slammed into the court. Ford missed almost two months recovering from his injury, allowing Jose Calderon to slip in and pilfer his starting spot and gain widespread fantasy fame.

Coming off of one his most productive seasons in his career (2006-07 season was very solid as well), look for T.J. Ford to be healthy and ready to step in as full time starter. But with such a fragile frame (listed at 6′0 165 lbs.) and extensive injury history, even the smallest collision could lead to long-term injury. For that reason, Ford will be a lifetime member of the injury-prone club. Buyer beware.

If nothing else, Dallas Mavericks billionaire Mark Cuban is certainly not gun shy about making major moves and shaking up his roster. After a disappointing 2008-09 campaign, Cuban declared that nobody was safe from being moved.

Despite the declaration, Dallas’ core stayed intact with Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry and Josh Howard all still around. With the season just around the corner, the 2009-10 Mavericks are substantially similar to last season’s model, with versatile forward Shawn Marion and big man Drew Gooden being the main additions.

This was supposed to be a sleeper piece on Marcin Gortat or Brandon Bass. However, the Orlando Magic ended up locking down both players for very reasonable prices, which seemed to be one of the major themes of the summer of 2009. Man, it would have been awesome to finally see the Polish Sledgehammer unleashed. But it was not meant to be.

With Erick Dampier slowing down and showing his age (34), the Mavericks clearly needed an addition or two to the front court. What the Mavericks needed most was athleticism on the wing (Marion) and scoring from the paint (Gooden). Scoring in the paint is not exactly Dirk’s specialty, as he is much more of a jump shooter than Gooden.

If given minutes, Gooden has shown that he can produce and be fantasy relevant. His career per-36 minutes averages are 15.4 points on .471/.732 percent shooting, 10.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.1 turnovers. Light on the blocks and not a great field goal percentage for a PF/C player, but useful nonetheless.

In the Mavericks-Magic preseason game, Gooden showed how he can play a big role in limited minutes. He had 18 points and 6 boards and a block while shooting a high percentage in 22 minutes. Granted it is only preseason, but that also means that Gooden should most likely see more minutes as guys like Kris Humprhies, Jake Voshkuhl and James Singleton should not be seeing nearly as much court time during the regular season (they played a combined 47 mintes against the Magic).

Starting status doesn’t matter for fantasy basketball. What matters most is the distribution of minutes, as minutes are a prerequisite to having fantasy value. With Dampier approaching senior citizen status in the NBA while also being almost completely offensively inept, Gooden has a solid opportunity to carve out a 30+ minute per game role for himself.

In recent years, Gooden has not played alongside such a talented group of players. Say what you will about his age, but there are few floor generals as talented as Kidd. Throw in Dirk, Terry and Marion and Gooden should be seeing a lot of open looks as players double off of him. Drew is most effective as a complimentary, scoring big man off the bench, which appears to be exactly how Coach Carlisle plans on utilize him.

With the Mavericks looking like the legitimate third seed in the West (with the Lakers and Spurs taking the top two spots), Gooden looks like a solid late round pick (Buser Sports ADP of 170 and a Yahoo! O-Rank of 194) for managers looking to efficiently solidify their points and boards from a center-eligible player.