Basketball Free For All

It wasn’t all that long ago that fans and analysts alike praised the outstanding play of the Lakers’ bench players, dubbed them the “Bench Mob” and put them among the league’s elite reserve units. This season, the Bench Mob was supposed to continue the tradition of wreaking havoc on opposing teams’ second units while spelling starters Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Ron Artest and Derek Fisher and maintaining or extending leads while the Lakers attempt to defend their title.

Over the past few years, the Bench Mob has been known for being aggressive during their stints on the court, sporting the swagger of a starting unit when they enter a game. The following account from the 2007-08 season summarizes the rise of L.A.’s Bench Mob and the respect they garnered.

A worthy next-generation supporting cast has suddenly appeared in the most appropriate of cities — Los Angeles — where a feisty band of extras serves at the pleasure of a genuine leading man. The Lakers’ Kobe Bryant, as Jordan once did, enriches these lesser lights figuratively (by the grandeur of his talent) and literally (backup point guard Jordan Farmar snagged a Louis Vuitton bag for Christmas), and so they aid him utterly and enthusiastically, while also making sure that their walk-on moments are duly recorded. “If we win a championship,” says reserve guard Sasha Vujacic, “we know it will be mainly because of Kobe. But we will have something to say about it too.”

Source: Jack McCallum, Sports Illustrated

Oh, how times have changed.

That era seems like a distant memory, as the 2009-10 version of the Bench Mob has been ineffective at best and downright detrimental at worst. Before looking at the numbers, let’s meet the Bench Mob first and see who has come and gone over the years.

Meet the Mob

When the Lakers are at full strength this season, the following players are the Lakers’ bench players (listed in descending order according to minutes played this season): Lamar Odom, Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Sasha Vujacic, Josh Powell, D.J. Mbenga, Adam Morrison and Luke Walton (although Walton has been injured for most of the season with a bum back). If we limit the Lakers’ rotation to only ten guys, the top five bench players are Odom, Brown, Farmar, Vujacic and Powell.

From last season’s Championship squad, the Bench Mob’s top five consisted of Trevor Ariza, Vujacic, Farmar, Walton and Vladimir Radmanovic. From the 2007-08 version, it was Walton, Farmar, Vlad-Rad, Ronny Turiaf and Vujacic. While there has been some turnover with the Bench Mob, it is also clear that there have been some constants with the Bench Mob (Farmar, Vujacic, Walton being the mainstays) making year-to-year comparisons interesting, if not totally legitimate.

With that in mind, the one thing can be analyzed independently of the year-to-year comparisons is the Bench Mob’s performance on the court so far this season.

Bench Mob Production, 2009-10

Taking a look at bench production for this season, the numbers point to the Lakers’ Bench Mob being one of the weaker in the League, no matter how you choose to evaluate their performance. In nearly every category (turnovers being the main exception), the Bench Mob provides below average production relative to the other 29 benches in the League.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Data Source: Hoops Stats

When scrolling down the list, what strikes you most about this version of the Lakers’ Bench Mob is how they excel at nothing and are average to downright pitiful in almost every respect. For a major market team that leads the league in payroll, this should be absolutely unacceptable from their bench players. At the very least, they should excel (i.e. be in the top three) in a few categories and should be average in most others.

All of the categories listed in the table above are self explanatory except for Efficiency, which is Hoops Stats’ simple means of comparing the overall statistical impact of a team based upon numbers available in the standard box score. The comparison can either be cumulative or on a game-by-game basis. The formula itself is Efficiency = ((PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK) – ((FGA – FGM) + (FTA – FTM) + TOV)). By no means is this the perfect system for comparing teams (problems such as it values points/rebounds/assists/steals/blocks equally, does not account for pace, etc.), but it is a quick and dirty, but objective, way of measuring on court performance.

So now focusing on Efficiency, which can be thought of as a method of comparing the total impact of the bench unit, the Lakers are 24th in the League. If you compare the Bench Mob’s Efficiency rating of 29.3 to their opponents’ bench Efficiency rating of 38.0, you get a differential of -8.7. Compare this efficiency differential to prior seasons and you see how the Bench Mob has fallen off this season (2007-08: net efficiency of 0.9th good for 13th overall; 2008-09: net efficiency of 2.1 good for 9th overall). In the prior two seasons, the Lakers’ bench has had a positive impact for the team while on the floor. This season, the Bench Mob has been a net loss for the Lakers relative to other teams’ bench production. Simple as that.

Looking at the entire season’s numbers, the Bench Mob has clearly not been an elite bench unit for the defending world champs. But what kind of an impact does the bench have on the Lakers’ overall success?

A Closer Look: Game-by-Game Production

Taking Hoops Stats’ Efficiency rating one step further, we can break the Bench Mob’s success (and failure) down to a game-by-game basis. When looking at a game-by-game perspective, the Bench Mob is 11-22 in the Efficiency rating battle, meaning that the Lakers have had a greater Efficiency rating (using the same formula listed above) than their opponent’s bench 11 times and a lesser rating 22 times.

In the 11 games in which the Lakers bench won their matchups, the Lakers are 10-1 for a .909 winning percentage. In the 22 games in which the Lakers bench lost their matchups, the Lakers are 17-5 for a .773 winning percentage. The difference is startling. If you think of each of the two winning percentages relative to their overall winning percentage of .818 (27-6), the difference is even more pronounced. When the bench loses the Efficiency battle, it reduces the Lakers’ chance of victory from .818 to .773, for a net loss of -0.45 winning percentage. When the Bench Mob wins the Efficiency front, it boosts their chances to of picking up a W from .818 to a staggering .909, for a net gain of .091 winning percentage relative to the average.

Thus, the Lakers’ bench play affects their ability to win basketball games in a very significant and tangible way.

Payroll v. Production

As alluded to earlier, the Lakers’ salary situation makes their average (or poor, depending upon your perspective) bench play less palatable. The Lakers have the biggest payroll in the league, coming in at a whopping $91,341,066 (salary statistics via Sham Sports). The bench represents $28,452,691 of Los Angeles’ total salary, which is 31 percent of the team’s total salary. In a vacuum, the Lakers’ bench seems to be a decent bargain but a point of comparison would probably provide some insight.

For some perspective, let’s see how the Bench Mob stacks up against the League’s best bench, again measured in terms of net Efficiency. The San Antonio Spurs’ bench is far and away the Association’s best bench, with a net efficiency gain of +21.4 . For more perspective, the next most productive bench is Cleveland’s with a +11.3 so it is safe to say that the Spurs’ bench is the gold standard. In terms of salary, the Spurs bench players account for 32 percent of their total salary. In relative terms, the Spurs are spending the same ratio of their total amount of  team salary on their bench but getting a much better return on their investment. In absolute terms, it’s no contest.

Conclusion

The Lakers’ Bench Mob has been relatively pedestrian this season and has certainly been their weakest bench in three years. They’ve lost the aggressive brand of arrogance past Bench Mob versions have exhibited while on the floor in both crunch time and garbage time. The bench is critical to the any team’s success in the NBA but even more so to a team that is defending a title and gearing up for a deep postseason run. Just imagine if this team had San Antonio’s bench instead of their own! However, this Lakers team doesn’t need the League’s best bench to defend their title — they just need a bench that is slightly above average due to their league-leading starting five.

While their cumulative impact has been disappointing thus far this season, there is some hope for the Lakers faithful. On Sunday, the Lakers routed the Dallas Mavericks with the bench contributing a season-high 66 points and Jordan Farmar tying his career-high of 24 points. This game had the feel of a turning point for the Bench Mob, a game in which the regain their confidence and swagger. If that is the case, the Lakers’ chance of repeating will be infinitely greater than if their early-season woes continue.

There is ample reason to celebrate in Orlando tonight with the Magic making their first NBA Finals appearance since 1995 when they had a young center named Shaquille O’Neal. Nowadays, the Magic have another young center roaming the paint but may have just been given another reason to celebrate. Rumors now have point guard Jameer Nelson possibly making a Finals appearance as he has made great strides since he dislocated his shoulder in February.

They are encouraged by Nelson’s rehabilitation so much that they will evaluate the possibility of the all-star playing if the club reaches the NBA Finals against the Lakers, the Sentinel has learned.

Vander Weide said the team is exploring whether Nelson can return after undergoing shoulder surgery Feb. 19. He hasn’t played since he was injured Feb. 3 against the Dallas Mavericks.

Although Nelson wouldn’t be in prime condition, Vander Weide said, “the chance to get an all-star point guard on the floor for 15 minutes a game…you’d have to look at that.”

Source: Orlando Sentinal

With the Magic playing incredible basketball right now, the question arises of whether the Magic even try and play Nelson at all? After all, if it ain’t broke then don’t break it. Both starting point guard Rafer Alston and backup veteran point guard Anthony Johnson have played well throughout the postseason. Is it worth messing with the successful tandem that has anchored the Orlando backcourt to bring Nelson back into the mix?

This past season Jameer was putting up really nice numbers, averaging16.7 points on 50.3/45.3/88.7 percent shooting, 3.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.1 blocks and 2.0 turnovers per game.  He scored efficiently from the field and was especially deadly from behind the arc. Most impressively, however, was Nelson’s defensive presence on the floor (compare Nelson with his counterpart’s per-48 minute production).

There is a serious risk in bringing Nelson in at this stage in the game. He is obviously going to be very rusty and will most definitely not be in game shape. With over four months of rest, Nelson may not be mentally prepared to step into the pressure of the Finals without having a few full contact practices under his belt. Also, trying to rotate three players for one position (see the Lakers with Derek Fisher, Shannon Brown and Jordan Farmar; they can really only expect solid production from one of the three on any given night). When players do not know how many minutes there are going to play on any given night, it can have a negative effect on their play.

Another Lakers parallel seems relevant here. The 2007-08 Lakers trying to work Andrew Bynum back into the rotation during the playoffs had mixed success. There are mentle hurdles that players must overcome in order to truly play at full strength on a recently injured body part (for example a player can favor the healthy leg and actually damage their healthy leg in the process). Although the doctors may have cleared Nelson’s body to play basketball, there is no telling whether he is mentally prepared to play at full strength effectively.

Both Alston and Johnson have been effective enough to believe that the Magic can legitimately challenge the Lakers in this year’s NBA Finals with or without Jameer Nelson. Although Nelson would probably be the best suited to defend Derek Fisher, the Lakers’ point guards do not play as integral of a role in the Lakers offense than other point guards in the league. However it would probably be wise to get Nelson into the best shape possible to insure against an injury to either of the Magic’s other point guards. It’s hard to fault a team for having too much depth at the point.

With the top two seeds still alive and kicking in the Western Conference, both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets avoided upsets on their way to the Western Conference Finals. However, both teams took divergent routes this season to arrive at the same destination; the doorstep of the Promised Land.

For the Lakers, it seems as though their season was predestined from the moment training camp began. Kobe Bryant and company finished the season with the second best record in the league, second only to Eastern Conference power house, the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Lakers also sported high profile wins against some of the toughest competition this season and stole a game from the Cavs at the Q (39-2 record at home this season, with the Lakers being the only team able to dethrone the King at home;  The Philadelphia 76′ers beat the Cavaliers at home in the final game of the season by one point with Lebron James in street clothes).

For the Nuggets, the season started ominously with the front office kicking Marcus Camby to the curb for peanuts (well, salary cap relief). At that time, the Nuggets faithful were despairing the loss of their defensive anchor for nothing in return. Little did they know that the front office had an ace up their sleeve and would pull-off one of the best trades since the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol from Memphis last season.

In what has proven to be a franchise-altering move, the Nuggets shipped out Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess (who was ultimately waived and re-signed with Detroit for a better shot at winning a title… whoops). Since that time, the Nuggets have gone from possible lottery team to legitimate championship contender. If Allen Iverson truly is the Answer, the Denver Nuggets certainly weren’t interested in finding out what the question was. In contrast to the Lakers, this team has had to prove the doubters wrong every step of the way on their journey to being one of the last four teams standing.

So how do these two teams compare to one another?

Tale of the Tape: The Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 65-17
W-L%: .793
Rank: 2nd

The Lakers played consistently good basketball throughout the course of the regular season. Outside of Laker Nation, the Lakers probably didn’t get quite of enough credit for their accomplishments this season with Lebron James, and to a lesser extent Dwayne Wade and the Celtics’ Big Three garnering most of the media’s attention. They also maintained the best record in the West even with Andrew Bynum missing 32 games leading up to the playoffs.

Pace: 94.4, 5th
O-Rating: 112.7, 3rd
D-Rating: 104.6, 6th
Differential: +8.1 (O-Rating minus D-Rating)

Of the numerous basketball cliches out there, one in particular describes this Lakers team when they are firing on all cylinders. It is the well known saying that ‘their defense creates their offense.’  But for this Lakers squad it really holds true, with Trevor Ariza leading the charge (and earning himself a nice raise in the process going into free agency this season). Ariza, who is the Lakers’ defense personified, gets into the passing lanes, pushes the tempo and finishes way above the rim without ever giving up on a play. When Ariza and the Lakers play inspired basketball, they are really an exciting team to watch.

Offensively, you cannot overlook three time champion and former MVP Kobe Bryant. He draws a huge amount of attention from opposing teams’ defenses and makes life much easier for his teammates to get high-percentage looks. At the same time though, last season’s key acquisition, Pau Gasol, has made it much easier for Bryant to get good looks as well. Having Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum as your backup weapons makes the Lakers a very dangerous team. Add in great perimeter shooting and you have a team that punishes you for doubling to try and stop Bryant. They truly make you pick your poison.

First Round, v. UTA: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. HOU: 4-3

In the first round of the playoffs, the Lakers took care of business fairly efficiently in taking five games to dispatch of the Utah Jazz. However, the conference semifinals provided the Lakers with a much bigger challenge in the Tracy McGrady-less Houston Rockets. When Yao Ming went down for the season after game three, the Lakers and everyone else in the world counted the young and injured team out of the running.

The trouble for the Lakers was that the Rockets didn’t get the memo that everyone else in the world got that the series was over and they played like their (playoff) lives depended on it.  The simple fact that it took the Lakers seven games to move past the Rockets (refer to Lebron James, Mo Williams and the rest of the Cavs to see what a championship team truly looks like) has given legitimacy to the argument that this team is mentally focused enought to win a championship. However the 2007-08 Celtics didn’t exactly cruise to victory against the Hawks or Cavaliers in the first two rounds of the playoffs either.

Tale of the Tape: The Denver Nuggets

Record: 54-28
W-L%: .659
Rank: 5th

The Nuggets played like an entirely different team this season by both addition by subtraction and also by, well, addition. The Nuggets gained by subtracting Allen Iverson, who is the epitome of a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer in decline. Iverson is unwilling to admit that he can no longer carry a team on his back and unable to accept any lesser role. This is probably the ultimate chemistry killer in the locker room. Billups, in an absolute contrast to AI, is the consummate professional and a savvy, championship proven veteran (they don’t call him Mr. Big Shot for nothing). You replace an undersized and disgruntled shoot-first point guard with a professional, pass-first floor general who demands a commitment to defense from his teammates and you have a vastly improved Nuggets squad this year.

Pace: 94.3, 6th
O-Rating: 110.4, 7th
D-Rating: 106.8, 8th
Differential: +3.6

Much like the Lakers, the Nuggets play high tempo basketball and especially push the ball and force the issue on their home court. Defensively, both Nene and Kenyon Martin play physical defense in the paint and tend to force jump shooting big men like Dirk Nowitzki out of their element (although to Dirk’s credit he played phenomenal basketball against Denver in the Western Conference Semifinals). What really stands out when looking over this Denver Nuggets squad is that they played great team defense, which is exactly what they’ll need to do to try and limit Kobe Bryant. Dahntay Jones, despite earning minutes from George Karl based on his perimeter defense, is simply over-matched against Bryant. It must be a concentrated and carefully executed five man strategy if you hope to stop the Black Mamba.

Offensively, this team is a true partnership with Billups and Carmelo Anthony sharing the leadership onus for this team. Billups calls the plays and initiates the offense while Melo is the finisher. Off the bench, J.R. Smith provides instant fire and has matured from playing alongside Billups (although he is still J.R. Smith so keep that in mind). He is prone to occasionally taking ill-advised jumpers or pull-up threes. But when this guy is on, he can absolutely make it rain. Smith is the true X-Factor for the Nuggets offense.

First Round, v. NOH: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. DAL: 4-1

Melo could not being player better basketball this postseason (27.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists on 48/45/83 percent shooting). Him and Dirk really battled last series with Anthony rising to the challenge and hitting big baskets when they mattered most. Chauncey Billups is right there alongside Melo in terms of playoff production (22.1 points, 7.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds on 49/54/96 percent shooting) and impact on ball games. As a result, the Nuggets made quick work of both the Hornets and the Mavericks along the way.

Regular Season Matchups

The Lakers and Nuggets played four regular season games this year, with the Lakers holding the 3-1 advantage. But upon closer examination, the team’s head-to-head play is not so clear-cut.

• Game One: 11/01/08. Lakers 104, Nuggets 97 (No Billups).
• Game Two: 11/21/08. Nuggets 90, Lakers 104.
• Game Three: 02/27/09. Lakers 79, Nuggets 90 (No Bynum).
• Game Four: 04/09/09. Nuggets 102, Lakers 116.

One of the Lakers’ three wins came against an Iverson-led Nuggets team, which, as discussed earlier, is essentially a different team. Empty win, Lakers 0-0. The second Lakers win was played out by two teams at full strength. Lakers 1-0. The third game involves a Bynum-less Lakers team, which is a different team as well. Lakers 1-0. The fourth and final game was again played out at full strength and again resulted in a Lakers win. Lakers 2-0.

Slam dunk, the Lakers are going to sweep the Nuggets in this series then, right? Not so fast. If you look at regular season games one through four again, paying particular attention to home court (the second team listed above was the home team), the Lakers two wins at full strength were both at the Staples Center. The two games that were thrown out for missing key players both occurred in Denver, where Denver is much more likely to play better basketball. While not providing hard evidence in favor of Denver winning the series, these few games definitely don’t give me any reason to count out the Denver Nuggets yet.

Position Battles

Point Guard: Advantage Nuggets. Hands down, and it’s not even close. Billups is a vastly superior floor general to Derek Fisher, although Billups is a better defensive assignment for Fish than Aaron Brooks proved to be last series. Fisher was absolutely embarrassed at times by Brooks’ speed and looked his age (34). Not to take anything away from Fisher, who is a great piece for the Lakers, but  he is clearly overmatched here.

Shooting Guard: Advantage Lakers. Hands down, and it’s not even close (again). I’m sorry but Bryant is better than Dahntay Jones and J.R. Smith combined. You better hope that Smith is ready to play lock-down defense, because Jones will be into early foul trouble in at least a couple of games in this series. One of the top five players on the planet and a nightmare to guard.

Small Forward: Advantage Nuggets. Again, not to take anything away from Trevor Ariza, but Anthony is clearly the better player. Ariza’s quickness may get the better of Melo at times, but Anthony’s strength will likewise cause problems for Trevor on the defensive end. Melo has forced his name into the discussion of best players in the postseason and I fully expect that trend to continue in the immediate future.

Power Forward: Advantage Lakers. Kenyon Martin is a very physical defender and could possibly cause Pau Gasol to lose his focus and start trying to get the referee’s ear. However, Gasol can stretch the floor and play with his back to the basket with equal skill. Martin is much more limited offensively which allows Gasol to conserve more of his energy for the offensive end.

Center: Push. Bynum has not fully proven that he is healthy and ready to be a factor in this series. Sure, he did play much improved basketball in the later games of the Rockets series, but he was also playing against a team without a true center or anyone who can body up on him (he is a beast). Nene has also not proven that he can be a consistent factor on the road in the post season, which is of crucial importance if the Nuggets hope to have a chance at upsetting the Lakers.

Bench: Push. This is a hard decision to make. Chris ‘the Birdman’ Andersen is the heart and sould of this Nuggets team and he, like Ariza, has earned himself a nice raise this season heading into free agency. He gets the crowd in the game. He blocks shots and alters way more shots than he actually touches. He provides highlight reel finishes in the open court. Besides him, the Nuggets have Anthony Carter, J.R. Smith and Linas Klieza to provide quality minutes.

The Lakers also have an extremely solid bench with depth at every position. Lamar Odom, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton all provide production off the bench and can step in if an injury were to occur to a starting teammate. The Lakers generally only need Odom and other of these guys to have a big game and they are virtually unbeatable. The bench (more so than even the Bynum v. Nene matchup) will be hugely important in this series.

Final Questions

Which team will show the mental toughtness of a championship team, even through adversity?

Can the Denver Nuggets overcome the Lakers’ home court advantage?

Where will game four be played?