Basketball Free For All

The All Star break is always a good time to start reviewing and analyzing the current season, as we are starting to acquire large enough of a sample size to begin to make decent judgments. With the season over 60 percent complete, the Coach of the Year (COTY) race is starting to take shape, with two coaches in particular rising above the rest of the pack: Atlanta’s Mike Woodson and Oklahoma City’s Scott Brooks. However, this season there are a decent number of qualified coaches so we’ll break down the other hopefuls and also examine the COTY’s recent (and in some ways dubious) history to get a full picture of this season’s race.

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Plonden gets two thumbs up for being able to peer into the future.  No, not for making any solid picks, but rather realizing we could use another writer or two around here.  Haha!  Honestly, we both happened to be without solid computer access for most of the week – hey it’s the holidays, right?  For this, we apologize but we vow to get back to posting multiple articles every week.

Ok, on to the good stuff!  Hopefully, some of you were able to nab Leandro Barbosa, Yi Jianlian, Jameer Nelson or Tyrus Thomas returning from injury.  If not, keep on reading then as you probably have a need to replace some dead wood on your rosters.

Week Ten Schedules

Four Games:  CHA, CLE, IND, LAL, MIN, NYK, OKC, PHI, SAC, SAS

Three Games:  ATL, BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, MEM, MIA, MIL, NJN, NOH, ORL, PHO, POR, TOR, UTA, WAS

Two Games:  DET, LAC

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

DeJuan Blair (SF/PF/C – 11%) – Everyone’s favorite preseason rookie is finally getting minutes including a season high of 35 against the Knicks this past Sunday.  Apparently not everyone has jumped all over him yet so check your leagues now.  His per 36 numbers are fantastic – close to 60 FG%, 14.6 points, 13 rebounds, .9 steals and 1.3 blocks.

James Harden (PG/SG – 38%) – The last 6 games, James is averaging just about 28 minutes a game.  Over that time span, he’s averaging 13.2 points, 1 3ptm/steal, 3.7 boards, 2.2 assists and 1.2 TO’s.  It appears his role will be consistent going forward so expect these numbers to remain (in case you’re wondering, ziguana has him ranked 87th the last 12 days which includes the dismal 41.7 FG%).

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 29%) – Soon to be fired Vinnie Del Negro has put Kirk into the starting lineup (not that it really mattered considering he’s been over 30 minutes a game since his return from injury).  Over the last 5 games, Kirk has averaged 11 points, 1.6 3ptm, 4.6 boards and 3.8 assists.  It’ll be interesting to see what a new coach decides to do, but he’s worth owning at least in the interim as he’s admitted he’s more comfortable in a starting role.

Juwan Howard (SF/PF/C – 10%) – With Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla done for the year, Juwan has been pushed into a prominent role.  Most likely, the Blazers will pick up another big man but in the meantime give him a look for solid FG% and good rebounding.  Since becoming a starter, he’s put up 8.7 points, 10 boards on 54 FG%.

Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 22%) – Him again?!?  Unfortunately yes.  First, he’s looking at a four game week so regardless of the subpar play, he should be able to put up useful numbers over the course of the week.  Second, both Mike Dunleavy (sufferring from lack of strength in his legs) and Dahntay Jones (return to mediocrity?)  have been awful.  Look for him to continue to get solid minutes contributing 3’s/steals/blocks with decent boards at his position.  Naturally, be aware he’ll most likely hurt your team’s %’s.

CUT LIST

Tyson Chandler (C – 44%) – If Tyson hadn’t given you a reason to kick him to the WW with his substandard play thusfar this season, his latest stress reaction in his foot probably should.  Considering he struggled with foot problems the past season and he still hasn’t felt 100% after offseason surgery, there is a good chance it’ll linger well into the rest of this season.

Tracy McGrady (SG/SF – 62%) – It should be obvious the Rockets and Tmac are and will not be on the same page for the rest of the season.  The Rockets decided to sit him down for a few games so he left the team to spend time with his family (uh, ok).  Prior to this, he wasn’t seeing even 8 minutes a game.  Time for everyone the end their love affair with him as it’s completely up in the air when his situation will improve whether through a trade or a Rocket’s injury.

WATCH LIST

Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 30%) – Ryan gets the “watch list” treatment because it’s unsure how significant his production will be going forward.  Prior to his really solid stretch just prior to his injury, he was largely an inconsistent mess.  Considering the Wolves won 3 of the 6 games he missed (and Damien Wilkins hasn’t been all that bad), I can’t see Rambis thrusting him into any prominent role.

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 10%) – I know Plonden told you to cut him a week ago, but you’ve at least got to put him back on your radar.  The Pacer’s could very well be considered the worst team in the league at the moment as they’ve lost 6 in a row including two embarrassing losses in their last 2 games.  Consequently, I could see the Pacers start off loading some of their higher salary players, but none more so than Troy Murphy.  No Troy means excellent minutes and production from Tyler (if you can stomach the FG%) – 36 minute per – 17.5 points, 9.6 boards, 1.2 steals with only 1.6 TO’s.

Serge Ibaka (C – 3%) – Allowing a pass in the Thunder’s last game, Serge has been playing admirably well.  In a four game stretch, he’s seen a little over 24 minutes a game and averaged 10.5 points, 8.5 boards, 1.2 blks on 62 FG%.  I expect his role to remain pretty solid as both Nenad Krstic and Nick Collison lack a lot of ability necessary many a night against NBA competition.

C.J. Miles (SG/SF – 4%) – Yeah I know he’s been horrid his last 2 games (2 for 15 FG’s), but don’t give up hope yet.  The Jazz need his production as Wesley Matthews will be more inconsistent going forward while Kyle Korver is still having knee problems.  I expect Miles to be a good source of points, 3’s and steals this week as the Jazz face the Wolves, Thunder and Nuggets.

Earl Watson (PG – 6%) – Another complete failure the last 2 games, Earl should be given a chance for at least this upcoming week (as I mentioned the Pacers are looking at a 4 game week).  Considering TJ Ford has all but been written off by Jim O’Brien, Mr. Watson has a good chance to rebound as the coach relies on a veteran leader to help the Pacers turn about their recent woeful play.  Expect solid 3’s, assists and steals out of him against the Bulls, Grizzlies, Wolves and Knicks.

STAY THE COURSE

Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 50%) – Hitting only 4 out of his past 24 field goals, will make you want to drop Ersan faster than a hot potato, but I ask you to reconsider the notion for 3 reasons.  One, his opportunity won’t be taken away as  the Bucks aren’t going anywhere fast so they’ll stick with their youth.  Two, he’s got Hakim Warrick behind him.  Three, team leaders Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut are as brittle as they come.

Marreesse Speights (PF/C – 34%) – After a 28/9 performance against the Clippers, Marreesse appears to have gone on hiatus (4.5 points, 4 boards the last 2 games).  This might be a nice opportunity for you to jump on him as some owner has lost the faith but you shouldn’t.  Besides his fantastic ability, he is too good of a fit under Eddie Jordan so expect a return to strong numbers in the near future.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Nazr Mohammed (C – 4%) – If Nazr is available, nab him in deep leagues.  While Tyson Chandler is slated to only miss a week, I expect his foot to hold him back much longer.  In the meantime, expect similar production to his last 2 game averages of 14 points, 8.5 boards, 1 steal/board with excellent FG% and TO numbers.

Jeff Pendergraph (SF/PF – 0%) – Until the Blazer’s are able to bring in another big man, Jeff will be relied on to assist Juwan Howard down the low.  Scary, I know but he’s worth a look for some extra points, rebounds and defensive numbers all done in an efficient manner (based on summer league production).

MYSTERY MAN

Delonte West (PG/SG – 20%) – In keeping with last week’s new category, is there anyone more worthy of a mention?  To start the year, it wasn’t even certain when, if at all, he’d be back on the court.  Now that he is racking up more 20+ minute games than DNP’s, the question is will he achieve any consistency to be worth owning in the average fantasy league – especially in the 3 point category (1 made 3 the entire month!!!)?  I say yes.  As he and his teammates continue to acclimate to one another, his role will likely increase.  After all, the Cav’s have won 9 of their last 10 and it can be argued he was their second most valuable player last season.  In addition, it’s no surprise confidence is the last thing he needs to achieve (the motorcycle stunt and his wrist injury).  However, it’s getting there as both the coach and teammates are noticing.

Week Eight brought it’s fair share of drama and story lines on the court. On the injury front, a group of players eaither came back from injury early or announced their intention to return from injury early (see below). On the bizarre injury front, Dirk Nowitzki’s elbow had an appointment with five of Carl Landry’s teeth, with Dirk walking away with pieces of Carl’s teeth lodged in his elbow. That injury sounds excruciating for both players, who were both coincidentally having phenomenal seasons.Hopefully these guys make it back from injury quickly and resume their productive ways on the court.

HOUSEKEEPING

Basketball Free For All is looking for a few good men or women to join the crew. Specifically, we are looking for new writers to contribute on a weekly basis. If you read BFFA regularly you should know the skills required: knowledge of statistics, general basketball knowledge, fantasy basketball knowledge, quality writing skills, a willingness to question commonly held views and being awesome in general. If you are interested in inquiring further, shoot me an email at plonden [at] basketballfreeforall.com (obviously replacing [at] with @ before you send the email) and we’ll talk specifics. Also, we would obviously welcome others with unique skills (web skills, programming, statistics, marketing, business, whatever) who are interested in contributing to the Free For All so just inquire if you are interested.

WEEK NINE SCHEDULES

Two Games: CHA, MEM, NJN, NOR, PHI, TOR

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, LAL, MIA, MIL, MIN, NYK, OKC, ORL, POR, SAC, UTA, WAS

Four Games: CLE, HOU, IND, LAC, PHO, SAS

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Joel Przybilla (C – 39%) As a starter, Przybilla has averaged 5.7 points on .500/.625 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.5 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers. His offensive efficiency has nose-dived this season but his defense is just as good if not better than last season. His mass alone will keep him on the court this season so give Ghostface Przybilla a look for blocks and boards.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 26%) If one thing is certain in Philly, it is that Speights is the type of big man that excels in Eddie Jordan’s offensive system. Speights has picked up right where he left off since returning from his MCL injury. Over his past three games, Marreese has posted extremely solid averages of 19.7 points on .468/.682 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 7.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers, effectively crushing the previously burgeoning fantasy value of Samuel Dalembert, who played 14.7 minutes per game during the same span (although foul trouble played a role as well). Your window to sell high on Dally has been effectively closed until he gets moved or an injury to another Sixers big man occurs. The only downside is the Philadelphia only plays two games next week, although it is mitigated by the fact that Speights is an excellent pickup for the long-term.

C.J. Watson (PG/SG – 18%) Over the past two weeks, Watson has been a top fifty player, which has been extremely surprising. The odds are greatly stacked against C.J. being able to produce at such a high level for the remainder of the season, as the Warriors offense is run almost exclusively through Monta Ellis. For evidence, check out Watson’s usage percentage of a mere 14.0 percent compared to Ellis’ 29.4 usage percentage. As a result, Watson’s steals (1.5 per game this season and 2.0 per game over the past two weeks) make up the lion’s share of his fantasy value so give Watson an add if you are looking for a low turnover steal specialist.

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 13%) So far, Casspi has proven to be one of the early surprises of the 2009 NBA Draft for the Sacramento Kings. Based on his recent strong play, Omri has moved into the Kings’ starting lineup and looks to remain there at least until Kevin Martin returns from his wrist injury. For an idea of what his numbers would look like if given extended burn, check his per-36 minute averages of 17.3 points on .513/.577 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 5.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. As the season has progressed, Casspi has also improved each month from the free throw line, meaning his early struggles from the line were probably confidence-related and that we can expect continued improvement over time.

Jose Juan Barea (PG – 12%) In his fourth season in the NBA, Barea is posting career-highs across the board. Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle has noticed, increasing J.J.’s minutes largely at the expense of rookie guard Rodrigue Beaubois, who has the physical tools to carve out a nice role for himself in this league one day. Over the past four games, Barea has averaged 16.3 points on .553/.857 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers per game. Players that are putting up over fifteen points per game don’t wallow on the wire for very long so grab J.J. and hope his hot hand can continue.

WATCH LIST

Jerryd Bayless (PG – 9%) In true Arizonan fashion, Bayless dropped the best line of his short NBA career against the Phoenix Suns last Thursday, while doing his part to push the Suns winless streak on TNT to 17 games. On Thursday, Bayless put up 29 points in a game that ended up being decided by only two points. Without a doubt, he is a big part of why the short-handed Blazers upset the Suns. The following game, Bayless saw his minutes increased to over thirty minutes against Orlando. Most notably, Jerryd played more minutes than Steve Blake. In short, Bayless is on his way to becoming a big time scorer. For reference, check his per-36 minute stats of 21.7 points on .530/.764 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 3.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks and 1.9 turnovers. The one thing that jumps out is that Bayless has poor defensive statistics and subpar threes for a guard. This combination does not bode well for fantasy value, as elite guards usually need to do more than simply score in order to maintain their fantasy value.

Kyle Lowry (PG/SG – 8%) Lowry qualifies for the watch list this week based upon his monster line against the Mavericks on Friday even though he put up a stinker on Saturday. Lowry’s line was so impressive, it bears repeating here to marvel. With Landry out with the aforementioned dental injury, Lowry stepped up and dropped 26 points on .615/.778 percent shooting, 3 threes, 6 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 steals, 1 block and 2 turnovers. If only there were some way to predict when these random epic fantasy lines were going to occur? That, my friends, is the proverbial fantasy holy grail, the pursuit of which is a quixotic mission. Just remember to run to the wire and pickup Lowry if Aaron Brooks ever misses significant time.

Earl Watson (PG – 4%) Watson has moved ahead of T.J. Ford on the Pacers depth chart, stealing the starting point guard honors from Ford on Saturday night. With the Pacers struggling this season and missing franchise player, Danny Granger, lineup shakeups were to be expected. Monitor the situation closely over the next week and move Watson from the watch list to your roster should the upward trend on his minutes continue and he produces in his time on the floor. That second caveat was necessary after Earl’s 3 point, 5 rebound, 5 assist showing on Saturday night. Worst case scenario, the Pacers point guard spot will be a time share with Ford and Watson killing each other’s value.

Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 3%) Over the past few games Wright has finally started to turn his potential into production. Wright has been (incorrectly) picked as a breakout player over the last couple of years but has been derailed by a series of injuries. Recently, however, Wright has finally been putting everything together and has been seeing increasing minutes as a result. Over the past five games, Wright has played 27.8 minutes per game posting averages of 13.2 points on .583/1.00 percent shooting, 1.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.4 turnovers. Wright has been doing two things on the court that really make coaches happy, notably playing active defense and taking care of the ball.

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 26%) Captain Kirk has never been the most efficient scorer on the floor, but he certainly has never had such a terrible shooting season like he has this year. However, Hinrich’s early troubles this season were strongly related to his thumb injury from November and are thus not just a regular shooters’ slump. With the Bulls in desperate need of three point shooting (28th in three point percentage, 30th in both three pointer made and attempted), Hinrich should earn his keep from downtown, as he is a career .377 percent shooter from behind the arc. Don’t expect elite fantasy production from Kirk at this point but more outings similar to his game against the Hawks on Saturday night are on the horizon: 13 points on .556/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 0 turnovers.

C.J. Miles (SG/SF – 3%) Miles has had an up and down season thus far, which started terribly after tearing a ligament in his thumb. While he was out, rookie guard Wesley Matthews stepped up and played well for the Jazz causing speculation that Miles’ starting job was lost for good. However, Miles recently showed up and played an instrumental role for the Jazz in securing a win against the Bobcats on Saturday night. Miles dropped 20 points on .500/.500 percent shooting, 3 threes, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks and 1 turnover. Most notably, Miles topped the 30 minute mark for the first time this season with the undrafted Matthews only seeing seven minutes of game time despite getting the starting nod. With another performance or two like last night’s, Miles will be scooped off the wire in most leagues.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jared Jeffries (SG/SF – 3%) Like Chuck Hayes at the start of this season, Jeffries’ fantasy line is not fashionable but rather purely functional. JJ is a nice player that is essentially a defensive specialist, especially if you are punting points or are already dominant in points and can carry a negative contributer for scoring. As he is being showcased for potential trades, Jeffries has logged 33.3 minutes per game over the past two weeks and has averaged 2.3 steals and 1.3 blocks over the same span. Again, Jared should only be added in deep leagues that are looking to beef up the defensive categories.

Goran Dragic (PG/SG – 1%) Second year Slovenian point guard Goran Dragic looks to finally be getting comfortable playing basketball at the NBA level. In the past week, Dragic played the best basketball of his career against the Suns’ arch-nemesis (setting a career high 18 points against the team that drafted him), the San Antonio Spurs. Most impressively, Dragic played tough defense holding Spurs shooting guard Manu Ginobili to only seven points while also visibly frustrating him. With the Suns making a long home stand and being the only undefeated team at home in the NBA, Dragic should see increased burn during both close games and garbage time.

Serge Ibaka (C – 1%) Ibaka’s minutes are trending upward as this season progresses, as he has really impressed Coach Scott Brooks with his hustle when given playing time. Over the past couple of games, Ibaka has been given nearly 23 minutes per game and has responded with a decent fantasy line of 11 points on .786/0.00 percent shooting (on zero free throw attempts), 0.0 threes, 6.5 rebounds, 0.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.5 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Ibaka is largely specialized in the big man categories but could really pile up the blocks if given enough PT (2.6 blocks per 36 minutes). For deep dynasty leagues, Ibaka is a player that should probably be rostered at this point based upon his potential alone.

Jonathan Bender (SF/PF – 0%) Taken fifth overall out of high school in the 1999 NBA Draft, Bender has widely been recognized as one of the biggest draft busts in the NBA as knee injuries cut his career short. Nearly four years later, Bender is back and is playing for the New York Knicks. In his first game back in the NBA, Bender put up 9 points on .500/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, o steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. With zero percent ownership, Bender is available everywhere and should be monitored to see if he can flourish and make the cut for Coach Mike D’Antoni’s short rotation.

COMING BACK FROM INJURY

Lou Williams (PG/SG – 41%) He’s baaack and way ahead of schedule to boot. In his first game back he played over 23 minutes although admittedly showing his rust on the court. It was reported that Williams lost a few pounds while on his liquid diet (courtesy of Antawn Jamison). Look for Williams to return to the starting unit soon and get back on track with his breakout season. Based upon his early season play, he should not be on a single waiver wire.

Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 39%) TT is targeting a December 26th return to game action after fracturing his arm in a weightlifting accident. He is slated to return to practice today so pay attention to any updated timelines in the next couple of days.

Leandro Barbosa (PG/SG – 53%) Merry Christmas! Barbosa is planning on returning to game action on December 25th against the Clippers, nearly a full month after he severely sprained his ankle against the Raptors. Barbosa was finally starting to string a few solid games together when he went down so look for him to resume his strong play sometime in early January.

Yi Jianlian (PF – 21%) Out since early November with an MCL injury, Yi is slated to return to game action this Wednesday against Minnesota. His retun was delayed a couple of weeks after a vicious Sean Williams elbow during practice that required 50 stitches. Hopefully, the elbow was a blessing in disguise as it kept Jianlian sidelined a bit longer and made sure his MCL injury was fully healed to prevent further injury. Yi is cruising dangerously close to earning the “injury-prone” label, which is stigma that is not easily erased.

STAY THE COURSE

Tyson Chandler – (C – 46%) It’s hard to understate how disappointing Tyson has been this season. His season averages of 6.5 points on .490/.727 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 6.8 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. The jump in turnovers was expected, as he is no longer playing with the game’s best point guard, Chris Paul. However, no one was expecting such a dramatic drop-off in almost every other category. Recently, he pulled down twelve or more rebounds in two of his past three games. After being called out by his teammates for his lack of heart and lack of effort, look for Chandler to respond to the challenge and pickup his subpar play.

Courtney Lee (SG/SF – 53%) Widely touted as a breakout player or sleeper before this season started, New Jersey’s Courtney Lee has had an unusual season playing for the league’s worst team. Don’t give up on this young swingman and expect his season averages of 11.0 points on .381/.810 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.0 turnovers to increase. Lee’s shooting efficiency has suffered greatly from his move from a deep and talented team to a thin and awful team has caused opposing defenses to turn greater attention to forcing him to take bad shots. However, his low turnovers coupled with nice steal numbers have made Lee a decent options for teams that can handle his poor shooting.

Anthony Morrow (SG/SF – 62%) One of the league’s best pure shooters has suddenly lost his stroke. Since missing time for a funeral, A-Mo has gone absolutely frigid from the field. On the season, he is shooting a respectable .487 from the field,  a scorching .462 from downtown and an elite .900 from the free throw line. Morrow has serious .500/.400/.900 potential. Over the past six games, however, Anthony has shot a miserable .268/.292/1.00. Hey, at least his free throws are still falling. Being a pure shooter, Morrow will come around doing what he does best: hoisting ‘em at the rim.

CUT LIST

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 12%) Psycho T has proven a lot in his short NBA career. Most importantly, he has proven to the doubters that he will be an effective player at the NBA level one day. However, he has proven that he has not developed the go-to moves necessary to be an efficient scorer in the Association. These moves will come in time, as Hansbrough has proven to be a relentless worker during his tenure at North Carolina and with the Pacers. However, outside of teams that are punting field goal percentage, Tyler’s .372 percent shooting from the field on 8.2 attempts per game is too crippling for widespread roster consideration.

Anderson Varejao (PF/C – 47%) Sideshow Bob’s fantasy value tends to go the way of his defensive production. AV’s real life and fantasy value never has and never will be predicated on his offensive production. Instead, his value comes from boards, blocks and steals. Recently, his rebounds have stayed somewhat stable but his blocks and steals have dried up, crippling his worth to fantasy teams.

MYSTERY MAN

Mario Chalmers (PG – 61%) This week sees another first for the Preview post: the Mystery Man selection. And there is no better player to be the inaugural Mystery Man than Miami’s Mario Chalmers. Heading into this season after a surprisingly strong rookie season that saw Chalmers post top-75 per game value and nearly top-50 cumulative value, Chalmers has disappointed virtually across the board. A sophomore slump, perhaps? Not only has he failed to progress in multiple categories, but he has actually regressed as well, most notably in steals (from 2.0 last season to 1.5 this season), which accounted for the vast majority of Mario’s fantasy value last season. As a result, Chalmers has recently been demoted to the second unit and his play has even caused speculation that Mario is not the point guard of the future for Miami. The next few games and weeks will be pivotal for Chalmer’s fantasy value this season so this is definitely a very interesting situation to monitor. How this position battle between Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo plays out remains a mystery for now.

Well we’re more than a quarter through the season so it’s probably going to get more difficult finding significantly helpful players if you participate in active leagues.  Instead, now is the time to keep a close eye on injuries.  When a player goes down or is just hobbling, it usually means something positive for at least one of his teammates.  Another item to keep in mind is that December 15th is the first day players signed this past off season can be dealt.  Between now and the trade deadline (February 18th), expect teams to maneuver to either put themselves in better position for the playoffs or wave the white flag and start thinking about next year.

Week Eight Schedules

Four Games: CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, NOH, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, TOR, WAS, UTA

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, GSW, MIA, MIL, PHX, SAS

Two Games: NONE

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Erick Dampier (C – 34%) – If your team needs help with rebounds or blocks, Dampier is your man.  Despite the glitch with his arm over a few weeks ago, he’s played extremely well when he’s gotten the minutes, as evidenced by the 35 rebounds the last two games.  Without a doubt, he appears to be a contract year player so take advantage of him the rest of this season.  Just keep in mind there will be matchups that limit him in certain games like against the Suns, Warriors or Knicks.

Jarrett Jack (PG/SG – 27%) – If your team is in need of guard help, you should pounce on Jack  immediately.  There is a good chance Jose Calderon might be missing a ton of time in the coming future as his hip is giving him problems.  If he does miss significant time, the Jack-of-all-trades will be a wonderful source of points, assists, 3’s and FT% – everything you want out of a starting PG.

Joel Przybilla (C – 36%) – It’s rare to have possibly two excellent center prospects sitting on the waiver wire, but that’s what you may have this week.  With just a 36% ownership, it’s obvious a number of fantasy managers haven’t jumped all over the Vanilla Gorilla upon hearing about Greg Oden going down for the rest of the year.  When Oden has missed time in the past, Joel has stepped up and contributed excellent boards and solid blocks.  Portland will lean on him heavily the rest of the year; consequently, so should you.

Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 23%) – So far this season, Brandon has done everything in his power to try to force himself off of most rosters.  However, he continues to be a tough habit to kick.  Why?  Opportunity.  Danny Granger is in the midst of missing anywhere from 4 to 6 weeks at the least.  Meanwhile, Mike Dunleavy is going to continue to slowly be worked back into starter-like usage.  Lastly, Dahntay Jones doesn’t possess a strong perimeter game, but more importantly, took a hard fall in last night’s game hurting his shoulder.  Although he says he’s fine, he could be slowed down enough this week whereby Rush emerges as a fantastic contributor during the upcoming 4 game week.

CJ Watson (PG/SG – 15%) – I’m confused by the low ownership of Mr. Watson.  I guess we need to call into Sherlock Holmes to solve this mystery, even though it doesn’t appear too mystifying.  Since getting over the swine flu, CJ Watson has played fantastic ball.  In the last 8 games, ziguana.com has him ranked as the 33rd best player as he’s put up solid numbers in all 9 standard categories.  With the minutes he’s been getting, it’s obvious Nellie and crew have an affinity for him so go ride this guy while he’s hot!

CUT LIST

Will Bynum (PG/SG – 31%) – The last few games, “Will the Thrill” has been sidelined with a bum ankle.  More troubling, with the Pistons on the verge of getting Richard Hamilton and Ben Gordon back and Rodney Stuckey finally hitting shots, Bynum’s minutes appear headed back to the low 20 range.  If you do the math, his nice run appears to be over.  Just keep him in mind the next time you hear about any injury/trade rumors regarding the Piston’s back court.

Nate Robinson (PG/SG – 36%) – If the 5 straight DNP’s haven’t helping you decide, let me tell you it’s time to move on.  The final straw appeared to be fraternizing with Dwight Howard prior to the start of a game against the Magic.  D’Antoni has recently stated he doesn’t plan on changing things either.  Why should he?  The Knicks are currently on their best winning streak since D’Antoni’s arrival in the Big Apple.  I don’t have to remind anyone that Nate should be picked up at the first signs of court time considering his fantasy explosiveness.

Al Thornton (SF/PF – 58%) – This drop is more in line with the thinking that owners should be preparing to cut ties with Al in the coming weeks.  Although Blake Griffin’s return has recently been delayed, Coach Dunleavy has expressed he might be the teams new starting forward.  If Camby doesn’t get traded, that should spell the end for Thornton’s significance in standard leagues.

WATCH LIST

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 5%) – It’s a shame the Israeli sensation can’t get off the watch list, but the depth of the Sacramento Kings is to blame.  Regardless, he should continue to be an asset for points, 3’s, FG% and rebounds.  Lately his defensive numbers have vanished, but I expect him to start contributing in these areas again considering his length and style of play.  The big question mark is the inevitable return of Kevin Martin, but worry about that when the time comes.

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 9%) – “Pyscho T”  appears to have carved a consistent role off the Pacers bench.  The last 3 games, he’s averaged over 17 points, 7 boards and 1.6 steals.  Think DeJuan Blair here because low minutes (low 20s) won’t kill his value.  This guy gets it done and he could help you if you’re pressed for forward production.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (SF/PF – 4%) – Usually when you’re one of the coaches favorites and get over 30 minutes a game, you’re worth owning in standard leagues.  However, this Prince isn’t the case.  He is the Bucks no glory guy where he’ll play tough defense and bring fantastic intensity – too bad that rarely translates well for fantasy purposes.  However, despite this, he’s bound to fall into some numbers.  Deep leaguers should definitely considering owning him, but standard leagues should probably just pay attention to whether he can get into any kind of groove regarding any type of production in coming games.

Luke Ridnour (PG – 39%) – There is no other explanation other than Luke has found the force.  Through more than the quarter of this season, he just can’t miss as evidenced by the 51.8 FG%.  His previous season high?  43.3%.  The reason he’s on the watch list though is playing time.  As the Bucks have gotten healthier, his minutes have dropped measurably (under 18 the last 4 games).  Most players can’t do a whole lot with limited time so expect Luke to follow suit shortly.

Martell Webster (SG/SF – 10%) – I’m kind of getting tired about writing about this guy, but due to the rash of Portland injuries, he’s borderline worth owning in standard leagues.  He’s semi-capable of doing a lot of things:  scoring, 3’s, rebounds and defensive stats, but, for whatever reason, he can’t do any of them consistently.  Perhaps someone/something will get through to him where that’ll change, however, don’t hold your breath as I expect his maddening play to continue.

STAY THE COURSE

Mario Chalmers (PG – 65%) – Admittedly Mario hasn’t found his groove for much of the entire first quarter of the season, but don’t give up hope.  I expect Coach Spo’ to attempt to get him going as the season progresses plus Rio will probably stop getting into so much foul trouble early on in games.  His outside jumper is much more efficient this season and with no real challengers to his skill set, Chalmers will continue to be given significant time.

Boris Diaw (SF/PF – 77%) – The arrival of Stephen Jackson has perhaps put Diaw into a noticeable funk, as evidenced by a drop in his numbers across the board.  It’s not too surprising that his usage would suffer, but don’t make too much out of this in such a small sample size.  First and foremost, realize that he’s currently in the midst of a significant slump as his shot hasn’t been falling.  Considering the Bobcats have no other decent options at PF his minutes will continue to be strong so just ride this out.

COMING BACK FROM INJURY

Plonden’s mentions of Yi Jianlian (PF – 1%) and Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 40%) still apply.  Also, now is the time to probably grab Jameer Nelson (PG – 66%) if he happens to be available.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jose Juan Barea (PG – 5%) – Recently, Mr. Barea has supplanted Rodrigue Beaubois in the Maverick’s starting lineup.  Prior to that, he had a 3 game stretch of non-existent play so it’s conceivable another owner let him go.  Considering Howard’s still coming back from injury and the Coach’s penchant for Jose, he could be useful in the short term for some points, 3’s, assists and steals.

Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 4%) – Really wanted to put “Buckets” on the watch list, but considering that many deep leaguers probably have recently let him go, I wanted him in this section of the article.  Thornton has a 4 game week coming up and his shot has recently returned.  I expect at least solid points and 3’s out of him, but look for more.  Chris Paul has been enamoured with this kid since he was drafted and is recently trying to get him to do more – rebound, drive to the basket, etc.  Hopefully this translates into better boards, steals and a more meaningful FT% in the near future.

Damien Wilkins (SG/SF – 1%) – If Ryan Gomes‘ ankle/knee injury last night forces him to miss any time, Damien looks to be the beneficiary.  He’ll give a little bit of everything, but most likely it’ll be short lived as Gomes’ injury didn’t appear to be serious.

Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 1%) – Almost forgot to add this guy – thanks for the reminder Andrew!  Recently, Wright has gotten solid run for a few reasons.  One, Quentin Richardson continues to miss time due to injury.  Two, Wright seems to have improved his play including an improved jumper and better decision making.  He may be indeed be worth a speculative add if you have the roster space.

The big news coming out of Week Six was unequivocally Greg Oden’s latest major injury (fractured left patella), which has most likely put his season to an abrupt end. All fantasy ramifications aside, you have to feel terrible for the young Blazer and hope he can overcome this latest setback and salvage his promising career. The worst part about the entire situation is that Oden has been playing by far the best basketball of his career when he went down Saturday night. Of course, this once again brings the elephant in the room to the forefront: what if Portland had selected Kevin Durant instead of Oden (there, I said it)? Tough break for both the organization and the fans.

Week Seven Schedules

Four Games: CHI, CLE, DEN, GSW, MIN, NJN, POR, SAS, TOR, UTA

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, DAL, DET, HOU, IND, LAL, MEM, MIL, NOR, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHX, SAC

Two Games: LAC, MIA, NYK, WAS

Add List

Joel Przybilla (C – 26%) It’s official: Greg Oden legitimately deserves the  “injury-prone big man” label, which does not bode well for his career trajectory. With Oden down and out, it is Vanilla Godzilla time for the foreseeable future. Przybilla provides very specific fantasy help, giving solid value in boards and blocks and modest value in field goal percentage (the impact of his very high percentage is moderated by his low number of attempts) with low turnovers. His career per-36 minute averages are 7.3 points on .555/.557 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11.3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 2.7 blocks and 1.7 turnovers so run out and snag him off the wire if you need big man help.

Luke Ridnour (PG/SG – 37%) Luke makes a second consecutive appearance on our add list based upon his extremely strong play recently for the Bucks. Over the past two weeks (eight games), Ridnour has averaged 13.8 points on .518/1.00 percent shooting, 1.1 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers per game. Many managers have avoided Luke until this point because they are worried about how Michael Redd’s return will affect Ridnour’s PT. Those numbers are good for top fifty value so grab him while you can and enjoy the hot streak while it lasts.

C.J. Watson (PG/SG – 7%) It is always dangerous recommending a player who is lives in Nellie’s World and is subject to the Coach’s whims. The X-Factor now is that the Warriors are so short-handed that Nelson can only do so much damage by playing Frankenstein with his rotation. Watson is just starting to hit his stride this season after suffering a strained MCL during the offseason and overcoming the H1N1. Over the past week, he has averaged 15.3 points, .558/.875 percent shooting, 1.5 threes, 4.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Those are some excellent numbers off the wire and are good for 30th in per game value according to Basketball Monster.

Vladimir Radmanovic (SF/PF – 9%) Re-read the above Nellie disclaimer and proceed with caution. Over the past week, Vlad-Rad has also shown enough to warrant a roster spot. As a further incentive, the Warriors play four games next week, which makes Radmanovic a nice pickup for a manager that needs threes, boards and steals. Over the past week, Vladimir averaged 11.8 points on .475/1.00 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.0 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. Based on these numbers, Radmanovic deserves a roster space until his next snowboarding accident.

Watch List

Carlos Delfino (SG/SF – 7%) Not sure yet if I’m convinced that Delfino will be worth a roster spot but his recent play lands him on my watch list. Playing almost exclusively at the three this season, Delfino has played well enough to stay out of Coach Scott Skiles’ doghouse. He has regularly seen over 30 minutes per night and has responded with some decent production. Over the past week, Delfino has averaged 12.5 points on .426/.600 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. The biggest threat to Delfino’s playing time (and thus fantasy value) is teammate Luc Richard Mbah a Moute’s recent return from a foot injury. Keep an eye on the Bucks’ forward rotation over the next few games for any changes in fantasy values.

Mickael Pietrus (SG/SF – 17%) As a team, the Magic have been rolling lately (seemed to coincide with the return of Rashard Lewis — coincidence? — I think not) and Pietrus is no exception. Over the season, he has averaged right about 30 minutes per game, which is enough minutes to make an impact. He has been inconsistent throughout this season and his career in general but seemed to come into his own during last season’s playoffs. What was most impressive, however, was that Pietrus made his presence known on the defensive end of the floor, which certainly puts him in a good position with Coach Stan Van Gundy. Last week, Air France’s play was particularly strong with averages of 15.3 points on .556/.667 percent shooting, 3.3 threes, 3.o rebounds, 0.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.7 turnovers over the course of three games (33rd in per game value). Did I mention that these three games were against the Knicks (twice) and the Warriors? That reason alone demoted Mickael from the Add List to the Watch List. If he can translate the recent success into solid lines against quality opponents, pick Pietrus up.

Andres Nocioni (SF/PF – 14%) Pretty much everyone, including Sacramento fans, has to be surprised that the Kings’ record has been hovering right around .500 this season. Especially considering the fact that their franchise shooting guard, Kevin Martin, went down for an extended period of time with an injured wrist. The team response to Martin’s injury has been commendable and Andres has played a role in helping Sacramento over-acheive. On the court, Nocioni spreads the floor while providing toughness and the occasional dirty play (every team needs at least a couple of scrappy guys out there). Over the past week, Nocioni has played very well (56th in per game value) putting up 15.3 points on .472/1.00 percent shooting, 3.3 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Players putting up 15 points a night with over three threes per game don’t spend a lot of time on the wire so pick him up now if you need threes from the forward positions.

Delonte West (PG/SG – 18%) – Don’t look now, but Mr. West has had 3 solid games in the last four.  Considering how significant he was to their team last season and Anthony Parker hasn’t been anything more than adequate, Delonte will be given every chance to succeed.  While it’s highly unlikely he’ll garner starter’s minutes, he should be able to put up enough positives in 26-29 minutes for those looking for PG help.

Coming Back From Injury

Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 41%) With the Bulls under-achieving so far this season (although to be fair they have had one of the hardest schedules in the league so far this season), Ty Thomas’ name has been swirling in trade rumors with the Knicks being the most commonly mentioned destination. Regardless of whether he is playing in a Bulls uniform or not, Thomas should hold decent value wherever he lands. If he does end up in New York, Thomas’ value could actually increase playing for Coach Mike D’Antoni in his fast-paced offensive system. With Thomas due back sometime soon, now is the time to pick him up and stash him away on your bench.

Yi Jianlian (PF – 21%) Of all the players taken in the the 2007 NBA Draft, Oden is clearly the most injury-prone player of the bunch. However, Yi is trying his damndest to usurp the most injury-prone-player-taken-in-the-2007-NBA-Draft mantle from Oden. While trying to get back into game shape after spraining his MCL in early November, Yi required 50 stitches in his lip and mouth courtesy of teammate Sean Williams. The silver lining might be that this prevents Jianlian from coming back too early from his MCL injury and buy him a few more days of rest while his mouth heals.

Cut List

Darren Collison (PG/SG – 11%) You’ve got to hand it to the rook — he had a hell of a run with Chris Paul out with a sprained ankle, but all good things must come to an end eventually. For managers that have CP3 and can store dead weight on their roster (roto leagues or H2H leagues with deep benches), Collison is a nice handcuff with Paul, as their fantasy values are more or less inversely proportional to one another’s. Collison proved during that stretch that he has a bright future in this League with performaces such as his 22 point, 11 assist game versus the Hawks or his 18 point, 7 rebound, 8 assist game against the Bucks.

Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 4%) Like teammate Darren Collison, it is about time to cut bait on Thornton and look for more productive fantasy players elsewhere. If Thornton is still on your roster at this point, look for a hotter player (such as C.J. Watson for example) and grab the player with the higher upside going forward. Just make sure and keep an eye on Thornton (and especially his minutes with CP3 back) as he has shown flashes of being a potential big-time scorer in the Association and would certainly benefit from playing alongside a healthy Chris Paul.

Steve Blake (PG/SG – 14%) Recently, Blake has certainly not made a very strong case for himself in his position battle with Andre Miller for Portland’s starting point guard position. Blake has not topped four assists or scored in double figures since November 21. In contrast, Miller scored 24 points on Saturday night in a tough, one point victory over the Houston Rockets (the same game the Blazers lost both Oden and all of their hope for the season). Also, Miller had 18 points and six assists in Portland’s prior game. It is safe to say that Miller has thoroughly outplayed Blake recently and the minute distribution has reflected that fact.

Stay the Course

Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 46%) Owners had to deal with a disappointing week by Ersan as he was in foul trouble for most of the last three games. However, don’t despair! The Bucks are in dire need of his production so they’ll stick with him and eventually he’ll learn to stay on the floor. Besides, there can’t be too many more potentially appealing options on the waiver wire that can fill up most of the stat sheet. His top-100 ranking for the season and averages of 11.3 points on .455/.789 percent shooting, 1.2 threes, 7.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks and 1.2 turnovers merit hanging on to him until he can buck this foul-prone streak.

Jarrett Jack (PG/SG – 19%) Jack has been struggling a bit since the big loss against the Atlanta Hawks (146 to 115 in case you forgot what a serious beat down it was). However, the encouraging sign has been that the minutes have been relatively steady for the other JJ. Even including the three mediocre games, Jack’s averages over the past two weeks haven’t been terrible — they’ve just been relatively pedestrian at 10.1 points on .478/.833 percent shooting, 1.1 threes, 2.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.9 turnovers. The upside is there (especially in the case of a Jose Calderon injury — another nice handcuff possibility) and the minutes are consistent, so ride out Jarrett’s mini-slump. Oh, yeah, and did I mention he has four games in Week Seven?

Deep League Specials

DeJuan Blair (SF/PF – 11%) – Chances are he’s sitting on your waiver wire.  After a monster preseason, he’s been quite uneventful for most of the regular season.  However, it seems he might be looking at a boost in minutes.  Barring last game due to a ton of early foul trouble, his minutes have been trending upwards.  In the Spurs recent loss to the Celtics, he was one of the lone bright spots.  Antonio McDyess, on the other hand, has been seemingly M-I-A. The upside is clearly there, as evidenced by his per-36 minute averages of 15.7 points on .607/.450 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.6 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.4 blocks and 2.8 turnovers. If you are looking for double-double potential off the wire, look no further the D. Blair.

Nick Collison (PF/C – 5%) – Nick appears to finally be healthy and ready to contribute in his typical fashion again.  However, some lucky owners may get rewarded even more as Nenad Krstic’s health is unknown at this point.  Nenad had been suffering from a sore Achilles, but several games ago, he twisted his ankle.  In that particular game against Philadelphia, Nick garnered 18 points (on 8/9 FG’s and 2/2 FT’s), 7 rebounds with 1 steal/block.  Last game against the Celtics, many prospective owners were probably turned off as he didn’t do anything in 11 lousy minutes.  However, I suggest you consider that an aberration.  Nenad will probably be given some time to get his ankle right so go ahead and cash in on Collison.