Basketball Free For All

It’s the final countdown!  Before I get into this week’s list, I’ve got to keep harping over these guys whose ownership is just over 40%:  Carlos Delfino, George Hill, Taj Gibson and Drew Gooden.  Hill looks to be primed to finish the year like a beast thanks to Tony Parker’s broken hand.  Gibson has excellent prospects as well as Joakim Noah isn’t even close to being a force in the paint anytime soon.  Lastly, Gooden and Delfino seem they’ll be able to continue their multi-cat ways.

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With yet another NBA trade deadline coming and going, a lot of excitement and hope was generated among the fans and media.  Some teams were looking for that final piece that makes them championship material.  Others simply were looking for a player that helps them get into the postseason.  Lastly, there were a few who look at this time of the year as the highlight of the season as their team struggles to even be competitive on a nightly basis so might as well position themselves for the upcoming lottery.  Whatever the reasons, all fans hoped their team would have made a trade or two that improved future prospects.  Question is, how often can these deadline deals really be coined successful?

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When one door closes, another one opens — or so the saying goes, anyways. With the trading period closed in the NBA, it is time to scour the waiver wire and see if the trades opened up any doors for your fantasy teams. As my distinguished colleague Oleh pointed out in his breakdown of the fantasy fallout from last week’s trades, there is plenty of value to be had as a result of trades, injuries and everything in between.

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Sorry for the delay guys, but there was a football game yesterday and it happened to include my favorite team – the New Orleans Saints.  With their monumental win, there had to be an equally impressive celebration on my part.  Laissez le bon temps rouler!

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Before we get to the good stuff, I just wanted to mention that we’ve experienced some trouble on the website as hackers thought we were an enviable target.  We have to assume they were unhappy with Plonden’s advice, but regardless, we lost Deebo’s post/comments and I’ve had to redo this week’s preview (that’s why it was late).  Regardless, lesson to be learned – BACK UP everything you do somewhere!

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Of all of this season’s early story lines, the big constants have been Golden State’s descent into the abyss and Chicago swingman John Salmons‘ poor shooting. Fantasy managers that drafted him expected efficient scoring and across the board production. Instead, owners have been rewarded with a roto-crippling field goal percent of .317 through the Bulls’ first nine games. If Salmons were to keep shooting at this clip for the entire season, it would easily qualify as a career worst for him.

With owners stuck with less than what they bargained for from their middle-round pick (average draft position of 73.7 in Yahoo! leagues), each manager must evaluate their situation and decide what course of action should be taken. For owners lucky enough not to have drafted John, they are left wondering whether he is a nice buy low target or whether he should be treated like he has the H1N1.

Throughout his career, nothing has ever been given to Salmons and he has hung around the league until injuries opened up increased PT. And with an increased role, he truly broke out and took the fantasy world by storm becoming a fast favorite for those lucky enough to snag him off the waiver wire. In casual NBA circles, Salmons’ rise to prominence, like many of his young teammates, was the epic Celtics-Bulls first round playoff series of 2008-09 that will go down as one of the greatest of all time.

With a basketball resume spanning eight seasons in the NBA, Salmons’ production is a relatively known quantity (or at least we thought it was), previously providing sneaky-good roto contributions that was good for 50th overall in per game value according to Basketball Monster and 53rd in per game value according to Ziguana. His cumulative value was also top notch at 34th according to BBM and 33rd according to Ziguana. Last season, his per-36 minute averages were 17.6 points on .472/.830 percent shooting, 1.5 threes (on .417 percent shooting), 4.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. When managers spent a eighth round pick on average on Salmons, those were the numbers they expecting in return.

But what went wrong? And more importantly, will he turn it around in time to salvage the season?

For Salmons, the situation is complex and there are various competing theories for what could be causing his shooting woes. In his case, there probably isn’t one right answer but instead a combination of contributing factors and competing theories that provide insight as to why Salmons has been shooting so poorly this season.

Let’s dive right in, analyze and discuss how each of them affect John’s outlook for the remainder of the season.

Theory One: Baby Watch

Salmons definitely had an interesting offseason dealing with a sore groin that dates back to the aforementioned epic Celtics playoff series. In addition, Salmons also dealt with the birth of his daughter. If you are wondering whether the birth of Salmons’ child could really be a contributing factor to his poor shooting, take a look at an NBC Sports player update blurb posted during the offseason.

John Salmons missed Friday’s game due to the birth of his child. He will rejoin the team on Sunday. This birth has been lingering for weeks and he can now focus on the Bulls now that it’s over. Congratulations, John. Now let’s play ball.

Source: NBA Sports

Lacking focus during the offseason can have negative effects at the beginning of the season as a player will have to play catch-up or struggle with things that he should have worked on when games didn’t matter. If this were the case, you would expect to see his shooting percentages down across the board, which is exactly the case with Salmons.

Those of you not buying the argument that the birth of a child could be that much of a distraction obviously don’t have any children or don’t know anyone with kids. Don’t worry; you’ll see for yourself one day. Managers that buy into this theory should hang on to Salmons if they own him or try to buy low, as he is bound to turn it around eventually once he regains his focus and conditioning.

Theory Two: Law of Averages

Another theory with a more optimistic outlook for John’s fantasy relevance centers around the law of averages, or more formally regression to the mean. In it’s most simplest form, regression to the mean can be boiled down to the idea that statistics like shooting percentages tend to gravitate towards their averages. In this case, Salmons has just had an extremely negative string of performances early on and each subsequent performance will tend to gravitate toward his career averages.

In this case, offseason distractions, roster changes and individual matchups so far this season don’t really matter. What matters are the numbers and Salmons’ established track record in eight seasons in the NBA. With a large enough sample size we can be confident that Salmons is a .444 percent field goal shooter, a .357 percent three point shooter and a .798 percent free throw shooter and not the .317/.267/.742 percent shooter we’ve seen so far this season.

Again, this time for dramatic purposes, the only really important things to examine with the theory of the law of averages is John’s current production versus his established averages. His numbers will return to normalcy at some point this season, salvaging John’s fantasy value and making him a roto-stud, as expected. For those that believe this, Salmons is a serious buy low that could pay huge dividends down the line.

Theory Three: Three Point Shooting

It’s no secret; the Bulls need help with their three point shooting this season. Desperately. For a little perspective, they rank 29th in three point attempts, 30th in threes made and 30th in three point shooting percentage. Officially, the Bulls are hands down the worst three point shooting team in the league this season. Compared to last year, the Bulls are significantly worse from behind the arc (23rd/22nd/6th, respectively, in 2008-09).

Which begs the question, what’s the main difference between last year’s three point shooting and this season’s?

Ben Gordon’s departure is the single biggest reason for the drop-off as a team. However, John Salmons’ and the other Bulls guards’ regression is another (John’s three point shooting percentage dropped from .415 in 2008-09 with Chicago to .267 this season while his attempts increased from 4.5 per game to 5.0 attempts). Chicago’s two other main rotation guards, sophomore point guard Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich, have not been getting it done from downtown either. Rose just doesn’t have three point range yet, as his .213 career and .000 current season three point shooting percentages attest. Hinrich, like Salmons, has been slumping so far this season shooting a career worst .267 from deep.

Gordon’s proficiency from downtown and propensity to launch bombs has been missed in Chicago thus far. However, none of Chicago’s guards have increased their attempts per game except for Salmons. Sometimes when players increase their shot attempts they not only take more shots but they also take more bad shots. It’s the opposite of the commonly quoted phrase letting the game come to you. When you ignore the common adage, overall efficiency suffers, which could be what is going on with John right now.

If you are persuaded by this theory, the Bulls as a team (ahem Coach Vinny Del Negro) will either need to find a solution to replace Gordon’s three point shooting or Salmons will need to reduce the number of threes he takes per game. Either one would help alleviate some of the pressure on Salmons’ shooting efficiency and make his fantasy line more palatable. Or so the Theory Three goes. According to this Theory, Salmons would be a buy low until Coach Del Negro or Salmons himself makes the necessary adjustments.

Theory Four: Different Shots

The fourth theory of interest is that Salmons is getting different looks than he was getting last year, with a negative result. The solution would be a coaching change that allowed John to get the looks he was seeing last season and the expected result would be a return to his efficient scoring ways. But does the evidence support this claim?

Examining shot data from 2008-09 and from this season, you can see a subtle shift in the pattern of shots Salmons is taking. His is relying on his jump shot more and is relying on his teammates to set him up more. At the same time, he is taking less attempts close to the basket and inside. These changes could all be expected to contribute to a lower field goal percentage. Looking at the shot data in a different way, what is the reason for the change in Salmons’ shot selection?

At 30 years of age, the changes evidenced in Salmons’ shot data could be the result of losing just a bit of his athleticism. Losing a step forces him to rely more heavily on his jumper, which was never John’s strongest part of his game, instead of slashing and getting higher percentage looks closer to the rim. Call this Theory 4.1. Or, the changes in Salmons’ shot selection could be a result of the emergence of Joakim Noah as a legitimate force in the paint, forcing Salmons farther away from the hoop into lower percentage looks. Call that Theory 4.2. The final variation is that John’s different looks could be solely Coach Del Negro’s fault, as he is ultimately the one who coordinates the Bulls offense and orchestrates the Bulls’ attack. For those keeping track that would be Theory 4.3.

If you buy 4.1, John’s atrophy is only going to accelerate so wait for Salmons’ next big game and see what you can get for him. Cut your losses, as they say. However, if you happen to be believers of Theory 4.2 or 4.3, coaching changes could allow Salmons to become an efficient scoring machine once again. The question then becomes, how much faith do you have in second year head coach, Vinny Del Negro, to make the necessary adjustments?

Theory Five: Higher Usage

The last, and probably most commonly cited theory, is the idea that Salmons is now forced to shoulder a heavier burden on offense with Gordon in Mo-Town and his efficiency has suffered as a result. With Gordon gone, Salmons has to take more shots on offense (increased usage) while simultaneously receiving greater defensive attention and pressure. Unfortunately for us, there are no freely-available statistics that track double teams or defensive pressure. Teams probably track statistics that could shed some light on this issue but they are not available to the public at this point. Not yet at least.

However, there are metrics that track usage percentage, which is simply an estimate of the number of team plays a player uses while he is on the floor. Contrary to the common wisdom, Salmons is actually shouldering a lighter load this season with a usage percentage of 19.8 percent down slightly from 20.2 last season. In this case, the numbers just don’t back up the theory that a higher usage is responsible for John’s decreased efficiency. And with no means of objectively testing the amount of defensive pressure Salmons is receiving this season, Theory Five is looking to be more or less debunked.

Conclusion

Of all the theories that attempt to explain Salmons’ poor efficiency, none clearly stand out as the definitive explanation for John’s shooting woes. More realistically, Salmons is suffering from the perfect storm of offseason distractions, team dynamics, roster changes, coaching issues, tough scheduling early on, confidence problems or a myriad of other possible contributing factors.

Of all the possible explanations, the higer usage theory is the one with the least amount of supporting evidence. Similar to the Elton Brand situation in Philadelphia, we as fantasy managers cannot know what is actually causing Salmons’ poor efficiency this season. As a result, the burden lies on each of us to examine each argument individually and weigh it against the facts. Based upon how you are swayed and by which argument, it totally changes whether you should cut your losses or try and buy low.

In competitive fantasy leagues, it’s never too early to start to identify potential sleepers for next season. Even though almost anything can change over the next two months, some players are already emerging as potential studs or breakout candidates for 2009-10.

The recipe for a potential sleeper is never the same. Sometimes it is true progression as a player, other times a trade or injury opens up minutes for a player. It can even be a truly unexplainable phenomenon. Whatever the reason, breakout players are essential to securing the ever-elusive hardware when playing against other knowledgeable managers.

Let’s break the potential sleepers into three groups: the guards, the forwards and the centers. With the guards and the forwards down, only the centers remain.

Brook Lopez — Next to Anthony Randolph, Lopez is this summer’s other worst kept secret. Knowledgeable fantasy managers across the country are excited. And for good reason, too. Lopez and Devin Harris are the Nets’ de facto franchise players, as both have already proven to be extremely talented.

Lopez’s rookie season was outstanding and mirrors another franchise center’s rookie averages to a remarkable degree. Check out rookie season comparisons for Brook Lopez and Yao Ming. In particular, compare the two players’ per-36 minute stats.  It’s interesting that Brook actually had a higher field goal percentage than Yao did as a rook.

In real life, Yao was better than Brook. For evidence of that in his statline, compare Yao’s and Brook’s defensive rating, which is a measure of points allowed per 100 possessions (D-Rating). Check out Yao’s D-Rating of 100 compared to Lopez’s D-Rating of 110. Clearly, Yao as a rookie was a much better defender than Brook was last season.

However in fantasy, who is better in real life doesn’t matter and who is the better defender doesn’t matter either. Stats matter and the numbers say that in terms of fantasy production, the Yao-Lopez comparison is within reason. So what did Yao’s statline look like in his second season? His points per game jumped from 13.5 to 17.5 and his efficiency from the floor jumped as well from solid .498 to very respectable .522 from the center position.

If Lopez’s fantasy numbers follow a similar path as Yao’s, he is bound to be a fantasy sleeper that is sure to fulfill his promise and potential. Just be ready to reach for Brook, as his average draft position in competitive leagues (according to Matt Buser’s August 31, 2009 ADP Report) is 28th overall. And in a keeper leagues, Lopez’s value is exponentially higher.

Emeka Okafor — As it’s been chronicled at BFFA in the past, Okafor should consider himself one of the luckiest men alive. He is going to be playing alongside the league’s most talented and exciting point guard, Chris Paul. As far as the current group of active point guards is concerned, the debate is about who is second, not first. CP3 is just that good.

It is widely speculated that Okafor’s numbers will improve playing alongside Paul but what kind of fantasy production can we realistically expect from Okafor next season?

Take a look at Okafor’s career statistics, with the idea of using these numbers as a sort of pre-Paul benchmark. In five season in the NBA, Okafor has averaged 14.0 points on .505/.596 percent shooting, 10.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. For what it’s worth, his career assist-to-turnover ratio is 0.499. Ouch.

His career numbers mask a trend with his field goal percentage, which is a trend towards a higher field goal percentage as his time in the league has progressed. Last season, Okafor’s field goal percentage was .561. Also, it should be noted that Okafor played in all 82 games in both of the last two seasons after avergaging 55 games per season in his first three years in the League.

So playing next to Paul, you’d expect Okafor to get better looks around the rim. No disrespect to Raymond Felton, but Paul is in another universe when it comes to getting his teammates higher percentage attempts. With that in mind, Okafor should progress close to the 60 percent mark for field goal percentage while boosting his scoring averages to career highs.

Being taken in the early sixth round so far this season based upon speculation of a fantasy production boost, Okafor could end up providing valuable dividends on the right teams. On any head-to-head teams that is punting free throw percentage, Emeka should provide very nice production and could easily outproduce his draft position. Or, for teams that can take on a poor free throw shooter, Okafor could be an excellent second center to anchor field goal percentage, rebounds and blocks.

Spencer Hawes — Flashy is probably not a word that will ever be used to describe Hawes’ fantasy or real-life game. Not gonna happen. Steady, maybe one day. Functional, hey why not?

His per-36 minutes from last season were 14.0 points on .466/.662 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 8.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.5 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Again, nothing flashy but very solid and respectable from a second or third center. What is really nice is to see that Hawes is increasing his three pointers per game.

With that in mind, check out this comparison of second year averages. A Mehmet Okur comparison should be a good thing for any young, big man in the Association. Okur was a much better shooter from the charity stripe, but their overall lines are relatively similar. Not a bad possible career trajectory for Mr. Hawes.

Another thing to consider in this situation is the team makeup and outlook for next season. There isn’t any point in sugar-coating it; the Kings were dreadful last season and will almost certainly be dreadful next season as well. But the good news is that Hawes has little competition for minutes at the center position and should put up steady contributions across the board.

Joakim Noah — Last season’s playoffs can be thought of as a watershed for a few players and teams in the League. The Dwight Howard-led Orlando Magic and the Chicago Bulls are some example of teams that made huge steps during the postseason.

How about Joakim Noah? Noah is an interesting case study because his watershed moment can be pinpointed to a specific play.

With that, Noah put everyone, pundits and players alike, on notice.

Noah’s second year averages were decent, but his post-All-Star Game splits showed vast improvement based largely upon bigger minutes. With his outstanding play in the postseason for the Bulls, expect a bigger role next season as a reward.

Next season, Noah could be in store for a similar line to his per-36 minute averages from last season. He averaged 10.0 points on .556/.676 percent shooting, 11.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. A double-double average with two blocks and a steal is very nice from such a young player. For leagues that count offensive rebounds, Noah is even more valuable (averaged a whopping 4.5 offensive boards per-36 minutes last season). Bonus!

Noah is a nice third center option and provides the lunch-pail stats that all fantasy teams rely on. With an average draft position of 105th, Joakim can be obtained late in the draft and is a nice bet to outproduce his draft position.

Roy Hibbert — Looking for a big man to burn a late round flier on? Look no further than Georgetown standout (average draft position of 144th overall), Roy Hibbert. Hibbert plays in one of the league’s most fantasy friendly systems (third in pace) under Coach Jim O’Brien.

Playing for a Pacers team that lost Rasho Nesterovic to Toronto, there is suddenly an opportunity for increased minutes next season. Nesterovic’s departure freed up 17.3 minutes per game at the center position. If you assume that most of those minutes will be funneled to Hibbert (14.4 minutes per game last season), suddenly Roy is looking at nearly 30 minutes per night. With minutes comes fantasy production.

What can we expect from Hibbert in 30 minutes of action per night?

Looking at his per-36 minute stats from his rookie season, the promise is easy to see. He averaged 17.6 points on .471/.667 percent shooting, 8.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.7 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. That’s over 17 points per game, almost nine rebounds and almost three blocks per game. That is big time fantasy potential right there.

If you factor in the possibility of a Troy Murphy injury, and Hibbert starts to look like a very nice sleeper next season. Speaking of a possible Murphy injury, Roy Hibbert and Troy Murphy make a great pair of players to handcuff next season in the right formats.

With some of the early (and obvious) sleepers exposed, next are the deep sleepers for extremely competitive leagues or deeper formats.

With Yao Ming down and out for (most likely) the entire NBA season and with Sun Yue no longer a Laker, Yi Jianlian must carry the hopes of over a billion Chinese. If the recent reports are true, Yi might finally be ready to step-up and become the player many thought he could become.

The burden of being selected in the lottery is often a difficult one to bear (selected 6th overall in 2007 in front of players like Joakim Noah, Spencer Hawes and Wilson Chandler). Some players take the challenge, and others crumble under the pressure of being called the b-word (that’s bust, folks). I’m looking at you, Mr. Brown.

However, Yi’s burden is two-fold. In addition to the typical lottery selection pressure, Yi must also deal with the pressure of being one of the few Chinese players in the Association. And make no mistake, China’s passion and love for basketball and the NBA is extremely high and the additional pressure of billions of Chinese people’s expectations is very real.

Recently, Yi was praised by Coach Lawrence Frank for his play this summer with the Chinese national team. Granted, his play was against much, much weaker competition (Kazakhstan has a basketball team?). But what is encouraging is that Yi has handled the pressure of being in the spotlight, of being the Man, without Yao and has flourished.

The confidence, or swagger is key. It’s always been clear that Yi had the physical and basketball tools to succeed in the NBA. The question has always been about his mental toughness and ability to peresevere against all odds. That’s what separates the purely talented from the successful in the NBA.

When analyzing Yi’s numbers last season, it is important to note two things. One, is that he was traded out of Milwaukee after only one season. This may have affected his confidence as he probably felt like he had to start over again in New Jersey. Two, is that Yi broke his pinkie finger in a game against the team that drafted him in January. After that game, Yi’s production just never got back on track.

Enough about the intangibles, what do the numbers say?

His per-36 minute averages from last season were 13.3 points on .382/.772 percent shooting, 8.3 rebounds, 1.2 threes, 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.9 blocks with 1.8 turnovers. For comparison’s sake, Yi shot .421/.841 percent shooting in his rookie season before digressing in his sophomore season.

If Yi really has gained his confidence and swagger back, his efficieny from field and the line should bounce back to respectable levels. It is doubful that Yi will ever increase his efficiency to elite levels, but he could eventually end up being above average from the field and excellent from the charity stripe. One thing’s for sure, his field goal percentage has nowhere to go but up from last season.

When looking closer at his statline, it’s immediately apparent that Yi has three-steal-block per game potential. In case you were wondering, the only four guys who pulled if off last season were Dwyane Wade, Lebron James, Danny Granger and Francisco Garcia. No, seriously. Now that’s great company.

If Yi really has overcome the mental hurdles that have limited him during the course of two years in the NBA, he is primed to have a breakout season for the Brooklyn New Jersey Nets. And with Vince Carter in Orlando, the opportunity is certainly there for Yi to prove that he belongs in the League (and on fantasy rosters for that matter).

It’s now or never.