Basketball Free For All

It’s the final countdown!  Before I get into this week’s list, I’ve got to keep harping over these guys whose ownership is just over 40%:  Carlos Delfino, George Hill, Taj Gibson and Drew Gooden.  Hill looks to be primed to finish the year like a beast thanks to Tony Parker’s broken hand.  Gibson has excellent prospects as well as Joakim Noah isn’t even close to being a force in the paint anytime soon.  Lastly, Gooden and Delfino seem they’ll be able to continue their multi-cat ways.

Continue reading

Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

In deep keeper leagues and dynasty formats, the players that come out on top year after year are those that relentlessly search for any advantage and leverage it fully. In that spirit, it is always nice to get the early word on a promising prospect to put on your watch list for the next couple of years. Look no further than rookie point guard, Rodrigue Beaubois.

The 6′2″, 182 pound playground phenom was discovered by Mikael Pietrus in in their native Guadeloupe, France. Air France took quick notice of Roddy and his impressive physical skills on the court. The first time you have the opportunity to see Beaubois run the floor, you get to see just how damn fast this kid is. We are talking Leandro Barbosa or Devin Harris quickness here. Anytime you see someone with that kind of explosiveness, you immediately think of the high potential for steals (fantasy gold).

As most NBA fans have never seen this kid play, what is the scouting report on Beaubois?

Unsatisfied with just Jose Juan Barea as a lightning-quick foreign point guard, the Mavericks used their first-round pick on 21-year-old Frenchman Rodrigue Beaubois. Beaubois has a fascinating set of physical tools at his disposal; at the pre-draft combine, his wingspan was measured at 6′ 9 3/4″ and he posted a 39-inch vertical leap. Where Beaubois is still apparently a work in progress us in terms of running an offense and creating for teammates. Still, he impressed at the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas, putting up a 34-point game and averaging 17.0 ppg and 3.8 apg with solid shooting numbers. If Beaubois plays well in camp, he’s got the chance to push Barea for backup minutes at the point. If not, he’s got time to learn as the heir apparent to Jason Kidd.

Source: 2009-10 Pro Basketball Prospectus

Beaubois’ amazing physical gifts will allow Roddy to be a big time scorer in the League one day. The only reservations are whether he can learn to distribute the ball and initiate an offense effectively. If he can learn to balance the two duties, in the Tony Parker or Devin Harris mold perhaps (although hopefully not as injury-prone), he will have a long career in the NBA.

Take a look at a recent preseason game against the Bullets. In just over 20 minutes Roddy tallied 14 points on .500/.667 percent shooting, 2 threes, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 0 blocks and 1 turnover. From observing the damage Beaubois did in limited minutes against Washington, Roddy’s potential becomes apparent. Again, notice the penchant for steals, even in only 20 minutes.

So why isn’t Roddy a legitimate fantasy pick right now if he is so talented?

Two words: Jason Kidd.

At the young age of 35 last season, Kidd played a very respectable 35 minutes per game while appearing in 81 games. Beaubois is strictly limited to playing point, as he is certainly too frail and short to play the two guard. Thus, Roddy should not regularly see over twenty minutes again next season. Instead, he should see extended time in garbage time.

But the silver lining is that through all of this, Roddy gets to learn and practice against the best point guard of past ten years, Jason Kidd. As a rookie point guard in the NBA, backing up Kidd is akin to being chosen to be a Rhodes Scholar; you get to learn from the best.

Barring an injury to Kidd, Roddy should not see enough minutes to post solid fantasy value next season. Kidd, Barea and the criminally underrated Jason Terry will all also be logging minutes at the point for Dallas next season. In fact Beaubois will more than likely serve some time in the NBA equivalent of detention; the D-League.

For managers in dynasty or deep keeper formats looking for that extra edge, put Beaubois on your real life watch list and pay special attention to the Mavericks’ garbage time. As Beaubois develops and adjusts to the Association (and hopefully bulks up a bit too), he should be a fantasy asset for the managers wise enought to spot the proverbial diamond in the rough.

If nothing else, Dallas Mavericks billionaire Mark Cuban is certainly not gun shy about making major moves and shaking up his roster. After a disappointing 2008-09 campaign, Cuban declared that nobody was safe from being moved.

Despite the declaration, Dallas’ core stayed intact with Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry and Josh Howard all still around. With the season just around the corner, the 2009-10 Mavericks are substantially similar to last season’s model, with versatile forward Shawn Marion and big man Drew Gooden being the main additions.

This was supposed to be a sleeper piece on Marcin Gortat or Brandon Bass. However, the Orlando Magic ended up locking down both players for very reasonable prices, which seemed to be one of the major themes of the summer of 2009. Man, it would have been awesome to finally see the Polish Sledgehammer unleashed. But it was not meant to be.

With Erick Dampier slowing down and showing his age (34), the Mavericks clearly needed an addition or two to the front court. What the Mavericks needed most was athleticism on the wing (Marion) and scoring from the paint (Gooden). Scoring in the paint is not exactly Dirk’s specialty, as he is much more of a jump shooter than Gooden.

If given minutes, Gooden has shown that he can produce and be fantasy relevant. His career per-36 minutes averages are 15.4 points on .471/.732 percent shooting, 10.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.1 turnovers. Light on the blocks and not a great field goal percentage for a PF/C player, but useful nonetheless.

In the Mavericks-Magic preseason game, Gooden showed how he can play a big role in limited minutes. He had 18 points and 6 boards and a block while shooting a high percentage in 22 minutes. Granted it is only preseason, but that also means that Gooden should most likely see more minutes as guys like Kris Humprhies, Jake Voshkuhl and James Singleton should not be seeing nearly as much court time during the regular season (they played a combined 47 mintes against the Magic).

Starting status doesn’t matter for fantasy basketball. What matters most is the distribution of minutes, as minutes are a prerequisite to having fantasy value. With Dampier approaching senior citizen status in the NBA while also being almost completely offensively inept, Gooden has a solid opportunity to carve out a 30+ minute per game role for himself.

In recent years, Gooden has not played alongside such a talented group of players. Say what you will about his age, but there are few floor generals as talented as Kidd. Throw in Dirk, Terry and Marion and Gooden should be seeing a lot of open looks as players double off of him. Drew is most effective as a complimentary, scoring big man off the bench, which appears to be exactly how Coach Carlisle plans on utilize him.

With the Mavericks looking like the legitimate third seed in the West (with the Lakers and Spurs taking the top two spots), Gooden looks like a solid late round pick (Buser Sports ADP of 170 and a Yahoo! O-Rank of 194) for managers looking to efficiently solidify their points and boards from a center-eligible player.