Basketball Free For All

Everything that follows is said with the utmost respect, as a true fan of Amare Stoudemire and the Phoenix Suns. After all, he has recovered from both the dreaded microfracture and an even more devastating freak eye injury, either of which would probably cause some players to consider retirement. The guy has been through a lot in his eight years of service on the front lines of the NBA. That’s what makes everything that has to be said that much more difficult.

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According to Yahoo! Rankings, guess who was the most valuable player during week 5?  Old unreliable Marcus Camby.  Hard to argue though considering he averaged (over a 4 game span) 12.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2.5 steals and 3.0 blocks.  You want efficiency too?  How about a 58 FG% and only 1.3 TO’s?  Lesson here is to start thinking about selling high (if you haven’t already).  He’s injury prone, 35 years old and a Blake Griffin return is on the horizon.

Week Six Schedules

Four Games: CHI, DAL, GSW, IND, MIA, MIL, NYK, PHO, TOR, WAS

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DEN, DET, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, PHI, SAC, UTA

Two Games: LAC, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, SAS

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Ersan Ilyasova – We’ve been touting this guy for 3 weeks now but he’s still only owned in 40% of all yahoo leagues.  This past week, he averaged 14.5 points (on 42.6 FG% and 77.8 FT%), 1.3 3ptm, 8.8 rebounds, 1.5 stls with only .5 TO’s.  With Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut still disabled and the Bucks enjoying a 4 game week, he could be a serious monster.

Luke Ridnour – As previously stated, Redd is still looking at missed games due to a sore knee. In his stead, Luke has been hot when given solid run.  He’s averaged 15 points (on 54.5 FG% and 100 FT%), .8 3ptm, 3.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and .8 steals.  He has the makings of a very good short term pickup so go ahead and take advantage.

Jamaal Tinsley – Never would have imagined I’d be touting the Tinman, but he has emerged as the best PG in Memphis.  Although he hasn’t officially been named the starter, it appears it’s only a matter of time.  His minutes are on a nice upward trend as Mike Conley is still mired in a season long funk.  Jamaal will give a boost in points, assists and steals with occasional 3’s.

Martell Webster – He’s probably been tossed between the waiver wire and a roster more than once, but he’s worth owning again.  Brandon Roy has spoken so no more 3 guard starting lineups.  Over the past five games, he has also shown he’s over his shooting funk with a 50 FG%.  In that span, he’s put up 14 points, 2.8 3’s, 5.8 rebounds and .8 blocks.

Nick Young – With Mike Miller’s recent injury, his DNP’s are long gone.  This time, he seems to be taking advantage of it as in 3 games he’s averaged 17.3 points and 1.3 3ptm.  Moreover, in watching the Wizards play the Heat, he impressed me.  His game has expanded beyond just scoring as I saw him compete defensively, make the right play and look for teammates.  It should translate into quite a few more boards, assists and defensive numbers than seasons past.

CUT LIST

Mike Conley – If Tinsley is on the add list, Conley definitely deserves to be on the cut list.  He hasn’t been able to snap out of a season long funk as he’s shooting 37.5% from the field (27.8% from 3) while posting a career worst 2.4 TO’s.  There is a good chance Mike will have a chance to regain significant time at the point down the line as Jamaal has been susceptible to injury or bad slumps himself.  However, no reason to wait for this to happen with him on your roster.

Randy Foye – At this point, it seems he can’t even beat out Earl Boykins/Nick Young.  If you picked him up when M&M went down, time to go back to the drawing board (unless 16 minutes of playing time is your cup of tea).

Brad Miller – Still owned in 50% of the leagues, uh why?  Barring some extreme matchups or foul trouble by teammates, his minutes are clearly going towards Taj Gibson and company.  Also, don’t forget that Tyrus Thomas will be in the mix in the not too distant future.

WATCH LIST

Omri Casspi/Donte Greene/Beno Udrih – Paul Westphal is still experimenting with lineups (until Kevin Martin returns) so the playing time and production of these 3 guys continues to waver.  I expect Donte Greene to be the short term loser (even though he’s started the last 3 games).  If he’s not hot, he’ll be sitting most 4th quarters to at least 1 if not both of the other guys.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see Beno also recapture a starting gig next to Tyreke Evans.

Allen Iverson – AI’s been beating on owners going back to last year but that may be changing in the near future.  His recent hasty retirement sparked some controversy in NBA circles as many (Larry Brown, John Thompson, countless of teammates) felt he acted too abruptly.  In my opinion, he is going to land on another roster (maybe Philly?) and could quite possibly turn out to be VERY relevant.  AI was ready to take on the world at the start of this year, but it didn’t work out.  Now with his supporters getting vocally behind him, I think it could give him the incentive to succeed this time round.

Jonas Jerebko – This Swede partially owes thanks to one of our loyal readers, John-O.  I was going to include him in the Deep League Specials area, but with others noticing his production, he deserves to be on everyone’s watch list.  Sunday, John Kuester changed his starting lineup to snap the Pistons out of their funk.  Lo and behold, it wasn’t the rookie getting the short end of the stick but rather Charlie Villaneuva.  To make matters even more appealing Charlie apparently broke his nose.  Jonas won’t overwhelm as the guards rule the team but he’ll continue to see 30+ minutes a game in the short term while giving solid boards and chipping in points, 3’s and defensive numbers on occasion.

STAY THE COURSE

Jared Dudley – Jared has cooled considerably since his strong start, but I advise owners who still haven’t punted him to stick with him.  First, Leandro Barbosa just hurt his ankle against the Raptors and appears he’ll be out anywhere from 2 games to 2 weeks.  Second, the Suns have a 4 game schedule this week.  Owners should prepare to be rewarded with solid 3’s and steals with decent points and boards.

Marcus Thornton – I know “buckets” hasn’t exactly set the world on fire the last 2 games but I don’t think his run is over.  First, he’s still the Hornets most explosive wingman.  Second, Peja has suddenly left the team for personal reasons.  If you can withstand another 2 game week, I think he’ll satisfy owners down the road as Chris Paul will soon be in control of his destiny.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Robin Lopez – The other twin is back from injury and in his first game back, he had an immediate impact for the Suns (8 points, 7 boards, 1 steal, 2 blocks).  Considering the need for a legitimate backup to Amare Stoudemire and Channing Frye, Robin should fill the role immediately.  Announcers noticed in that first game, he was quite winded early so once his conditioning gets in order, he has a good chance to increase productivity and consistency.

Damien Wilkins – Kurt Rambis promised to shake up the lineup and in Sunday’s game Wilkins started for the first time since the start of the season.  Considering the Wolves upset the Nuggets at their place while he contributed 15 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists, I’d say he’s earned at least a few more starts.

At this point, everyone in the know knows Brook Lopez and the unique set of skills he brings to both his team, the New Jersey Nets, and the lucky fantasy owners who draft him. There is also another less-known member of the Lopez family who may also be relevant this coming season. Robin Lopez is his name and until recently, sitting on the bench has been his game.

RoLo became a member of the Association last season after being selected 15th overall by the Phoenix Suns. He spent most of the 2008-09 season buried deep on the Suns’ bench. His PT was an innocent bystander caught in the crossfire of the Shaquille O’Neal experiment in Phoenix. Plus, the fact that he couldn’t stay on the floor without fouling (5.7 fouls per 36-minutes) didn’t help his cause either.

Now that the Shaqtus is in Cleveland and Terry Porter is well, wherever he currently is, Lopez finds himself in position to at least earn some decent minutes this season (at least improve upon the meager 10.2 minutes per game he averaged in his rookie campaign). With no “true centers” on the Suns roster other than Lopez, Robin should see decent runs based upon matchups.

Who is Lopez competing against for minutes?

First, there’s the slightly undersized-for-the-position Amare Stoudemire. As the alpha male of the Suns big men, it goes without saying that Amare will be on the floor when the game starts (and ends for that matter) at either the four or the five. If Amare ends up manning the four, Lopez has a much better shot of earning enough PT to be fantasy relevant. Lopez has the possibility of either starting or coming off the bench as the first big man.

While the Suns roster is by no means set in stone at this point in the offseason, we can already predict that Lopez will see a much bigger role this season. The loss of Shaq alone should guarantee that. However, the situation is further complicated by the addition of mobile big man Channing Frye to the roster as well as the continued development of Jared Dudley and Lou Amundson. How these three play will play a big factor in determining the extent of Lopez’s fantasy value this coming season.

As of now, the Suns depth chart is poised to look something like this:

PG: Steve Nash, Goran Dragic
SG: Jason Richardson, Leandro Barbosa, Alando Tucker
SF: Grant Hill, Earl Clark, Sasha Pavlovic
PF: Amar’e Stoudemire, Jared Dudley, Louis Amundson
C: Robin Lopez, Channing Frye

As mentioned earlier, Amare could be moved back to his unnatural position of center. If this is the case, then expect Lopez to be the first big off the bench to spell Amare, with Frye most likely starting at the four. In this scenario, Stoudemire and Frye could play the four and five interchangebly with both players preferring to shoot (and attack the rim in Amare’s case) instead of playing with their back to the basket.

However, what if the Suns decide to keep Amare in his Shaq-era position of power forward would open up the opportunity to have a true center (term used loosely here) in Lopez starting at the five. The other possibility to consider is that Lopez and Frye could both end up starting a decent number of games based upon matchups.

So let’s assume Lopez does indeed get more minutes. What kind of production could we expect?

Lopez’s per-36 minute numbers from last season were 11.1 points on .518/.691 percent shooting, 6.9 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.6 steals, 2.4 blocks, and 1.6 turnovers. So going into his second year where he could actually improve (at least a little bit) with increased playing time and confidence, Lopez becomes a potential third or fourth center for a fantasy team. His value lies with his rebounding to a certain degree and shot blocking ability to a large degree; his offensive game just isn’t there yet.

After watching Lopez battle in Las Vegas Summer League, he looks poised to make a definite impact on the defensive end (insert disclaimer about basing opinions on summer league play here). He was trying to reject every shot he could and did a solid job of making his presence known on the boards (even had a beastly 24 point, 16 rebound, 2 block game). On a side note, his summer league averages were remarkably similar to his per-36 minute stats from his rookie season. Remarkably similar.

If he is given starter status, and more importantly, minutes, expect Lopez to provide for those in need of a boost in rebounds and blocks with a respectable field goal percentage.

The Suns brought in Channing Frye as their lone unrestricted free agent prize this off-season (Grant Hill and Steve Nash also were re-signed as restricted free agents). Frye brings a well-rounded set of skills to the team as well as a high basketball IQ. He is a great mid-range shooter, capable defender against quicker big men and an underrated passer. He is quick on his feet and comfortable with the run-and-gun system the Suns will be getting back to this season under Alvin Gentry.

Frye can play either the four or the five but is much better suited to play the four. He will most likely have a career year with the Suns next season, earning ample playing time, somewhere in the 25-27 minute per game range. He will earn his keep off Nash pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop opportunities, just like Amare has done in years past. Amare and Frye are similar style players and could be a potent force together on the floor.

It will be up to Gentry to decide if he wants to emphasize defense early on and start Lopez or to go with the option of putting the most offensive firepower possible on the floor early on by starting both Frye and Stoudemire. It could change night-to-night with Lopez starting when the Suns play against bigger centers like Dwight Howard, Shaq or Kendrick Perkins.

As with Lopez, Frye’s playing time could hinge on the production of Jared The Junkyard Dog Dudley and Lou Sweet N’Lou Amundson. Yeah, those are both real nicknames. Both are pure hustle players who work hard on both ends of the floor on every possession. Dudley is more of a complete package who does all of the little things that role players should do. He has the shooting touch to go along with the defensive heart and ability.

Amundson is more of a defensive role player and rebounding specialist. He’s a lunch pail guy that every team needs. Plus, he is an absolute fan favorite in the Valley of the Suns. Both of these young players could end up earning minutes and cutting into both Lopez’s and Frye’s playing time. The extent to which this occurs is not known at least until training camp begins and we start to get a clearer picture of the new pecking order. Neither will be fantasy commodities except for in the deep leagues.

The Suns front court position battle is certainly one to keep an eye on this fall in training camp.

No matter how the rotation shakes out in the next few weeks, the Suns will have new-found depth in the front court. No matter what shakes out, one thing’s for certain: this team will be very different from the Seven Seconds or Shaq model of last year.