Basketball Free For All

It appears much of the Hornets’ remaining season will hinge on Darren Collison (Dimes) and Marcus Thornton (Buckets).  If you’ve followed the Hornets closely either at At The Hive or Hornets 247, you would have picked up on these novel but very appropriate nicknames given to New Orleans rookie back court.  However, if you haven’t, don’t worry, I’ll more than introduce you to the league’s best young yet mostly unknown duo.

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Before we get to the good stuff, I just wanted to mention that we’ve experienced some trouble on the website as hackers thought we were an enviable target.  We have to assume they were unhappy with Plonden’s advice, but regardless, we lost Deebo’s post/comments and I’ve had to redo this week’s preview (that’s why it was late).  Regardless, lesson to be learned – BACK UP everything you do somewhere!

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Yet another week has passed and there were more changes to the fantasy landscape.  Chris Paul, Travis Outlaw, Josh Howard, Kelenna Azubuike and Marreese Speights went down this week.  Meanwhile, Pau Gasol, Eric Gordon, Courtney Lee and Troy Murphy continued their Mr. Invisible impressions.  At least Antwan Jamison and Rashard Lewis will be sure to return this week.  Also, can’t go without mentioning Brandon Jennings.  He is the reason why NBA League Pass just might be worth it as it’s highly unlikely most of us will even have an opportunity to watch Bucks’ games.

Week Four Schedules

Four Games: ATL, CHA, CLE, DET, HOU, IND, MIA, MIL, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, TOR

Three Games: BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, LAC, LAL, MEM, NJN, NYK, PHI, PHI, SAC, SAS, UTA, WAS

Two Games: MIN

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Will Bynum – He’s got a juicy four game schedule and both  Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton are not expected to play during the road trip.  Although Bynum’s numbers will likely take a hit when Rip gets back, he still might be worth owning as he’ll probably still get around 25 minutes a game and contribute decent scoring stats, assists and steals.

Toney Douglas – Over the last week, Toney has been the Knicks best guard.  It’s not saying much when you check the competition but it is very noteworthy.  D’Antoni’s grey is becoming more noticeable by the day and he’s tired of it.  Currently, he is re-evaluating the entire rotation and it is expected he’ll go with the youth.  I expect Toney to continue to get strong playing time and help fantasy owners in scoring stats, efficiency and steals.

Rudy Fernandez/Martell Webster – Funny how in one week Martell goes from the drop list to the add list.  Thanks Outlaw!  With Travis sidelined for at least 6 weeks, both of these guys will probably be worth owning.  Martell has a golden opportunity to really seize some time as it’s not expected the Blake/Miller/Roy trio to continue starting.  If Webster is able to start knocking his shot down with any regularity, he’ll put up very serviceable numbers across the board.  Rudy on the other hand is a perfect fit for the 6th man so that should continue.  However, his minutes are going to get a bump up so nab him if you really need help with 3’s and steals.

Chris Douglas-Roberts – He licked the swine flu in no time and has already logged 35 minutes in the Nets last game.  Pick him up if he’s available because the Nets are in dire need of his potential contributions.  He’ll be rewarding owners as soon as this coming week in points, efficiency, steals and rebounds.

Thabo Sefolosha – There is no denying it, he has a major role in the Thunder’s rotation because of his defensive abilities.  It’s a great sign that he’s still been getting a ton of time even though his shot has been way off of late (6-25 in the last 4 games).  While he’ll never be a volume shooter, he will help fantasy managers in 3’s, boards and defensive categories.

CUT LIST

DJ Augustin – Seems DJ is going through the motions of a second year player.  There were high hopes entering the season but he’s gotten off to a slow start and it appears Larry Brown won’t help him.  The other night, DJ took a shot off a pick and roll instead of passing to the open player and Coach promptly yanked him.  With Raja Bell attempting to play through his injuries and Flip Murray back, Augustin will be pressed to find consistent minutes.

Chris Duhon – Chris was never meant to be a fantasy relevant player, but that changed the day he put on a Knick uniform.  While he has the ability to put up some nice numbers on occasion, he hasn’t even been close thus far this season.  D’Antoni hasn’t kicked him to the curb yet, but I expect the next game or two to be a nice barometer for the next few months.  If he shows signs of snapping out of it, hang on to him as Coach will undoubtedly stick with him.  If not, send him packing.

Josh Howard - Well that didn’t take long.  Howard is already out indefinitely with rumors claiming he’ll be out until the end of December.  Considering the surgery was back in May and he’s still not right, I don’t suggest standard leagues to stick by this brittle body.

WATCH LIST

Darren Collison – Darren might be a nice plug in option for at least this upcoming week, but I’m not sold on him.  He struggled in his first start against the Hawks and scary as it sounds, Bobby Brown outplayed him.  It’s easy to envision him going from a bad game to average to bad to good to bad again.  Also, after this week, the Hornets will have two straight weeks of just 2 games so I assume there should be a better interim option out there at this time.

JJ Hickson – The Cavaliers moved him into the starting lineup to shake things up a bit after a disappointing start to the year.  Somewhat surprisingly, JJ has come through with flying colors.  In their last game against Utah, he put up 20 points, but more importantly, he received 38 minutes on the floor.  If this continues, then he’ll most likely be worthy of ownership in standard sized leagues.

Marcus Thornton - Last week, I had him in my Deep League Specials section, but this week he gets a bump up.  It’s no secret that the Hornets are struggling especially on the offensive end.  Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, Devin Brown and James Posey have looked awful too many times.  With Jeff Bower responsible for drafting Marcus, I believe he’ll get his share of chances at significant playing time rewarding owners with points, 3’s, FT% and steals.

STAY THE COURSE

Andris Biedrins – Horrid start for sure.  Combine that with a lousy back injury that seemed to be perpetuated by Nellie’s lack of sense, he’s giving fantasy owners absolutely nothing right now.  However, according to Ziguana,  he put up Round 5 value last season.  Considering the Warriors have no other viable center, he’ll jump back into the rotation once he’s deemed healthy.

John Salmons – He couldn’t have gotten off to a worst start – under 32% from the field thus far.  However, don’t make the mistake on either dropping him or selling low as he’s a proven efficient shooter.  Despite his struggles, he’s averaging 38 minutes a game so it’s only a matter of time before he becomes a valuable asset on your team.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Eddy Curry, Jordan Hill – I’ve got a strong feeling one of these two guys will be relevant as soon as this coming week.  David Lee at center seems worse than last year as his opposition is running layup drills around him.  With Darko Milicic apparently not a factor, one can expect D’Antoni to next look to these two guys.  Hill has shown flashes of late that he’s got some game but he still has a number of things to learn (as indicated by his foul rate).  Curry has been a laughing stock for such a long time but the Knicks are desperate.  He’s lost a ton of weight and might be serviceable until his next injury.

CJ Watson – In the world of Nellie, even fodder can turn into gold.  Not surprisingly, Stephen Curry has already landed on the end of the bench so CJ has been able to receive some fantastic minutes the last two games (27 and 34).  Subsequently, he has taken full advantage of it by playing very well and there is a decent chance it’ll continue in the short term.

For those of you who think Emeka Okafor will be the only new significant contributor for the New Orleans Hornets this season, think again!  Joining the big man in the middle in the starting lineup will be Julian Wright.  With the team in desperate need of some youthful athleticism, he is poised to have a nice breakout in 2009-10.

Julian’s first two years in the NBA were pretty uneventful as he mainly participated in garbage time.  However, some of you may remember towards the end of his rookie year, he showed some glimpses of his potential.  In particular, during the 4th game of the playoffs against Dallas, Julian came into the game and helped deflate the Mavericks momentum with his energy and hustle.  The Hornets went on to finish off Dallas and then almost knocked off the Spurs.

Subsequently, last year, many Hornets fans expected to see Wright emerge as a major cog in the rotation.  Sadly, it didn’t happen as the wrath of young player hater Byron Scott buried him on the bench.  Many fans expressed their concern over the course of the 2008-09 campaign and pointed to losing young promising talent like J.R. Smith and Brandon Bass.  Then, somewhat surprisingly, rumors started circulating that Wright was going to become a starter this upcoming season, and at the start of training camp, it became official:

“Right now Julian is the starting three, ” Scott said. “It’s his position to lose. He’s comfortable and he has a lot of confidence in himself. I think he knows we have a lot of confidence in him.”

Source:  Nola.com

So why the sudden turn around Byron?  Have a change of heart?

I seriously doubt it as I think the issue was two-fold.  First, a lot of it boiled down to hard economics.  The Hornets were stuck between a rock and hard place this offseason as they needed to get better but were well over the salary cap.  Why else would they deal Tyson Chandler (a CP3 favorite), Rasual Butler (for a 2nd round pick) and Antonio Daniels (decent veteran backup PG)?

Second, they had just gone through a season in which the immovable Peja Stojakovic wasn’t physically 100% for the majority of the season.  Consequently, the only obvious solution was to play him less minutes in order to help maintain his effectiveness.

So now the Hornets have to fill both the starting SG and SF positions.  One look at the remaining roster and you’ll see why the Hornets appear to have the “wright change of heart.”  Besides our sleeper candidate, they could have gone with Devin Brown (do you really need an explanation), James Posey (easily his best role is off the bench) and Morris Peterson (someone not a rookie needs to play SG).  It’s no surprise why the Hornets have a ton of confidence in the youngster.

Good thing for fantasy owners is this kid has some game.  Despite not having solid support his first two seasons, his career per-36  minute averages are 11.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.0 turnovers, 1.6 steals and .8 blocks.  His field goal percentage is a hefty 49.4%.  His FT shooting and 3 point contributions are dismal but let’s not completely write them off considering he still is young enough to improve upon them.

The biggest question will be whether the aforementioned line serves either as a baseline or a ceiling.  In the past, the Hornets have made a mistake of treating Wright like a number of their other wings – a shooter with an experienced IQ.  Guess what – he’s NOT that type of player.

Instead, think Gerald Wallace – a high-riser with amazing all around athleticism and excellent length (6′8”) and wingspan (7′1”).  I believe that the Hornets will finally realize his strengths as they can’t bury their heads in the sand anymore.  They’ll have to rely on his above the rim game with Tyson in Charlotte, his excellent rebounding numbers for a wingman and very good vision to hit a number of excellent Hornet spot up shooters.  When you couple this opportunity with what many scouts consider a good work ethic, you can see why Wright has all the makings of a special sleeper.

When the Oklahoma City Thunder rescinded the deal they had orchestrated to acquire Tyson Chandler due to a nasty case of turf toe, it seemed almost laughable. Now, it turns out the joke was on the New Orleans Hornets. With basically no depth in the middle and little salary cap flexibility, the Hornets’ fate next season is tied to Chandler and his left foot.

In a press release, the team reports Chandler had a procedure performed on his left ankle to relieve inflammation. In addition, he also had a procedure done on his left toe to improve function. Both procedures were performed in New York City.

Posey had a corrective procedure performed on his right knee in Miami.

The Hornets report that both players will be fully recovered prior to training camp. But that fact that they are rehabbing significant injuries means New Orleans would have a hard time trading either player in any attempts to shake up their roster after a disappointing 2008-09 season.

Source: New Orleans Hornets, May 26, 2009

Scott also added that surgery revealed center Tyson Chandler’s injured ankle was worse than thought, and Chandler’s rehabilitation could take four months, close to the beginning of training camp in October.

Source: The Times-Picayune, June 5, 2009

The fact that Hornets head coach Byron Scott admitted the severity of Chandler’s injury is important for a few reasons. First, it means that Chandler is damaged goods and will most likely not be traded until he returns to the court and proves that he can stay healthy. This has major implications for the Hornets’ salary situation, as it is widely reported that they are in a very difficult fiscal financial straits and are actively trying to shed salary by any means necessary short of getting rid of All Star floor general Chris Paul.

Second, Chandler most likely aggravated his ankle and toe injury in trying to rush back and help New Orleans advance in the playoffs last season. Whether it was his own desire to help his team advance or due to pressure from the front office, Chandler clearly should not have been trying to play. The aforementioned lack of depth at the center position essentially doomed the Hornets’ playoff hopes without a healthy Chandler. When your choice for starting center is between Sean Marks, Hilton Armstrong or Melvin Ely, you are definitely in deep shit.

Without salary flexibility to sign a solid backup center, the fate of the Hornets franchise is tied to the health of Chandler’s feet and ankles and it appears that their desire to win last season meant that they were irresponsible in how the handled his injury.

But what about Chandler’s fantasy value for next season?

Chandler’s fantasy value season is certainly hard to gauge at this point but a few things are clear when you look at the numbers. There are certain players who are much better in real life than they are in fantasy basketball. Tyson is one of these players. There are also other players who will be drafted higher than they should merely based upon name recognition alone. Tyson is also one of these players.

Look at his average value last season compared to where he was drafted. In 2008-09, Chandler’s average draft position was 70th overall in Yahoo! fantasy basketball leagues. According to Basketball Monster’s Player Rankings, Chandler’s value last season wasn’t even close to that ADP.

Per game, 2008-09 = 181st
Cumulative, 2008-09 = 233rd

2008-09 averages: 8.8 points on 56.5/57.9 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 8.7 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 1.6 turnovers.

Obviously, Chandler was hobbled by injury last season and his value took a very serious hit as a result. What about Chandler’s per game and cumulative rankings from the previous season (2007-08)? These averages and rankings were indicative of the fantasy production and value managers expected to get from drafting Chandler. They also give a better impression of what Chandler’s true fantasy value is.

Per game, 2007-08 = 83rd
Cumulative, 2007-08 = 62nd

2007-08 averages: 11.8 points on 62.3/59.3 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.7 turnovers.

So an ADP of 70th overall seems reasonable based upon his 2007-08 numbers, right?

Wrong.

In my opinion, Chandler’s 2007-08 fantasy value represents his ceiling. As a player with limited offensive skills, Chandler’s scoring probably will not advance significantly beyond his 2007-08 statistics. Most of his points where created by Chris Paul or off of putbacks anyways, so a trade to virtually any other team would negatively affect his fantasy value as well. As far as his other stats, he most likely was at or near his ceiling as well. His field goal percentage has little or no room for improvement. He could probably gain more blocks (Dwyane Wade averaged more blocks than Chandler last season) and I don’t really understand why he doesn’t. Again, more reason to believe that Chandler will not exceed his 2007-08 numbers and fantasy value.

Drafting a player close to or at their fantasy ceiling is not a formula for success. The idea is to draft players well below their ceiling so that they outperform their draft position by a wide margin (the most common example of this is trying to identify and draft sleepers). Do yourself a favor next season and steer clear of drafting Chandler, as he is most likely to be taken at or above his ceiling. You are better off to draft a mid-level center who has less injury concerns and more of that ever-elusive upside (Al Horfod for example).