Basketball Free For All

Everyone ready for the home stretch?  We’ve got 3 weeks left before most fantasy playoffs begin in Week 22.  However, don’t view this as a time to coast as it could be more important than ever to pay attention to your teams.  Whether you’re fighting to make the playoffs or simply looking to make those final tweaks to bring home a championship, the moves you make now could potentially decide your entire seasons.  So FOCUS! 

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Like in real life, one of the most important aspects of managing a team successfully involves making adjustments. Often, a few minor tweaks can make the difference in transforming a middle-of-the-road team into a juggernaut. One of the easiest ways to strengthen a fantasy squad is by building upon your strengths in head-to-head or by shoring up your weaknesses in roto without adding turnovers. Even more useful is to add to your strengths or to shore up your weaknesses while at the same time reducing your turnovers.

Turnovers are an easy category to win consistently based on the simple observation that most managers, including very competent and competitive managers, don’t pay much attention to turnovers. They play in nine category fantasy leagues but basically value their players based upon only eight categories. They take the attitude of letting the chips fall where they may in both roto and head-to-head leagues despite the fact that it is very much in their interest to keep the turnover numbers down.

Probably the most common argument against using turnovers as a scoring category in fantasy leagues is that people feel that the best players in the league are penalized because they have the ball in their hands so much when trying to create for their team. It is definitely a valid argument but there is something to be said for looking at the assist-to-turnover ratio instead of the raw turnovers. But that’s another argument for another day. For now, we are stuck with standard nine category fantasy basketball, for better or worse.

If you find yourself competing in a league that counts turnovers, trading a few of the players that hurt you on turnovers (such as Monta Ellis or Chris Kaman) for a few players that take care of the ball and address other needs can pay dividends. It is important to point out that there are players of all caliber that have manageable turnovers, including first round talents on down the line, so the previously mentioned argument that states good players are needlessly punished for turnovers doesn’t hold water. There are excellent players that average less than two turnovers per game while providing you with solid fantasy value, despite playing over 35 minutes per night. These players are just more rare and in higher demand than their bumbling counterparts.

The following chart contains players who are a net gain for your fantasy squad in terms of turnovers. It contains players of all positions and of all calibers, but is restricted to the players within the top 100 in per game value for the entire season. These valuable players are guys that make for interesting trade targets for managers trying to keep their turnovers to a minimum.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

Right off the bat, one of the top two players in per game value is extremely impressive but should not be surprising. Dirk Nowitzki is constantly underrated and yet consistently provides amazing cumulative value from season to season. Over the past three seasons, only Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant have provided better cumulative value. And yet Dirk gets passed over for guys that bring in sexier stat-lines ever year but are either less efficient or more injury-prone. Dirk is a great first round pick for a head-to-head team that is looking to either punt assists completely or to just keep turnovers low.

In Kevin Martin’s case, the 1.4 turnovers per game were really impressive for two related reasons. First, K-Mart played big minutes (41.8 minutes per game) during the five games he appeared in earlier this season prior to his wrist injury. Just being on the floor for over forty minutes a night and not turning the rock more over is pretty impressive by itself. Even more impressive is the low turnovers coupled with his very high usage rate (29.4 usage percent while on the floor; this usage percent puts him in the top ten in the league this season). If he could only stay healthy, Kevin would rank among the league’s elite in fantasy leagues that count turnovers.

In perusing further down the list, you start to notice that there is a dearth of point guards that have low turnovers. There are four players that provide more than four assists per game while also keeping the turnovers low. These four players are Jose Calerdon (6.1 assists per game), Lou Williams (5.1 assists per game), Luke Ridnour (4.4 assists per game) and Beno Udrih (4.1 assists per game). Looking these same players from the assist-to-turnover perspective, they are re-ranked as follows: Calderon (3.84), Ridnour (3.43), Williams (2.84) and Udrhi (2.42). Target players such as these four if you are looking to add assists without overburdening turnovers. Contrast their stats with the aforementioned Ellis, who averages 5.0 assists per game but also tallies 4.3 turnovers for an AST/TO ratio of 1.17, which is not great for a guard.

For each statistical need, there are players on the table that provide the production you are looking for. For three point shooting, give Danilo Gallinari (2.8 threes per game) or Channing Frye (2.5 threes per game) a look. For boards, target Nene (8.8 rebounds per game) or Al Horford (9.4 rebounds per game) to clean up the glass. In the end, you can find add to your strengths or reduce your weaknesses while also reducing your team turnovers. It simply requires targeting the right low turnover players for your team.

Coming into this NBA season, the New Jersey Net’s expectations were low.  However, no one expected them to challenge ineptitude of historic proportions.  The Nets recent loss to the Dallas Mavericks resulted in being associated with the distinct dishonor of the worst start by any franchise in NBA history.  Worse than any expansion team or some historical bad franchise like the Clippers.  Even though they’ve recently broken through with a win, will putting their worst leg(s) forward hurt the team beyond this season?

Just How Bad Have Things Been?

To put it bluntly, the Nets have been awful.  They have the worst offensive rating (94.7), the worst points per game (87.60), the worst FG% (41.0) and the worst assists (16.25).  Most of their losses haven’t even been close as their point differential stands a little over 10 points per game (only Minnesota is worse).

To be fair, at one point they only had one original starter available for a period of time.  Devin Harris, Yi Jianlian, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Courtney Lee have all missed time for various aliments.  One of these players, CDR, was the first NBA player infected with the swine flu.  Prior to their first win against Charlotte, this foursome had missed 34 games out of a possible 72.  Don’t forget that it takes time to get back into the swing of things such as chemistry and conditioning.

Can’t also discount they’ve had some key role players miss the majority of the season:  Tony Battie, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes and Eduardo Najera.  Without a solid bench, it’s no wonder this patchwork team has been tragic against the rest of the NBA.  The New Jersey Nets probably wish they had as many healthy legs as their cheerleaders.

Did Management Stoke the Fire?

Coming into the season, the Nets had no established veterans – star or even borderline.  Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter had all been traded away.  However, a number of followers and writers proclaimed this was a good thing.  New Jersey had some promising young talent including a potentially fantastic PG and C.  More importantly, they would have about 25 million in available cap space for 2010.  As you’re probably aware, there are some fantastic names that may be available in free agency including Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire.

There does lie a problem with this thinking – it’s a year away.  For 2009, most experts predicted they’d finish at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.  Nothing new here as I’m sure most of us felt the same.  With obvious turmoil looming, why then was Lawrence Frank fired?

I guess it’s Lawrence’s fault that they wanted to go young and [clear] cap space and that everybody got hurt,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said Sunday night, before his team beat another one that is dangerously walking the 2010 tightrope, the Knicks.  “Maybe he was banging them up in practice, taking a baseball bat to them or something.  I just know that with the lineups he’s had to put on the floor, I don’t think any coach would’ve done anything better than he’s done.”

Source:  CBS Sports

Pretty hard to disagree with Stan’s assessment when considering the roster and all the injuries they’ve had to deal with thusfar.  However, were there issues going on out of the public eye?  Apparently, yes.

Sources said Nets management had come to believe that Frank had lost much of the team, a fact that has played out in losses to Denver and Sacramento in the past week. Once the Nets played so poorly against the Kings – believed to be the most winnable game on the trip – management decided it could no longer go on with Frank as coach.

Despite the return of point guard Devin Harris and shooting guard Courtney Lee, the Nets have played long stretches of uninspired basketball. “Most of the guys have tuned him out,” one source with direct knowledge of the locker room environment said. “This isn’t all Lawrence’s fault, but everyone knows that this can’t go on anymore.”

Source: Adrian Wojnarowski

Beat writers close to the Nets also observed that Frank and Devin Harris were not seeing eye to eye.

“In the times I’ve been here, I’ve been so (angry) because of a lack of effort,” Frank said last week. “But these guys are giving virtually everything they’ve got.”

But they didn’t give him the effort lately and he had to go. Now, the next coach will have to coax more team play out of Devin Harris, who had problems with Frank’s controlling style and has gained the reputation of being a solo act.

“Last year we had Vince Carter and he was a positive influence on the young guys,” said one team official. “But he’s not here, and it hurts because the coach and point guard are not on the same page.”

Source:  Mitch Lawrence

Consequently, it’s not surprising the Nets let Frank go.  At least, they fired him before they set the all-time record so that his name wouldn’t have to be associated with it.

Therefore, on the surface, it would seem they’ve made the correct moves.  There is one thing still bothering me though.  Did they consider the consequences if this team loses too many games?

Will a really bad record have long term effects?

We’ll examine two aspects to gauge possible long term affect:

1) How historically poor teams fare with rosters primarily consisting of talented youth in following years.

2) How many big time free agents signed with historically bad teams in following seasons.

1) First, we’ll examine how promising teams reacted to severely disappointing seasons.  Specifically, we’ll look at the 1993-94 Dallas Mavericks, 1999-00 Chicago Bulls and the 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers.  These teams were chosen because they were all in the midst of serious rebuilding with promising youth with a significant stretch of poor play.

The 1993-94 Mavericks team finished with a 13-69 record, but they were best known for posting a 2-39 record (OUCH) through the midpoint of the season.  The team wasn’t completely devoid of talent as they had two promising but young 19 point scorers in Jim Jackson and Jamal Mashburn.  So how dire did it get?

You hear about it and read about it, but words cannot really describe the hopelessness down here. At one point last night, the Dallas Mavericks called a 20-second timeout and spent a good 15 seconds trudging back to the huddle, defeated.

At courtside, owner Donald Carter sat in his hideous shirt and his jeans and his 10-gallon hat, cheering his team wildly while it was 15 down. The latest news? Jimmy Jackson says he’ll never, ever, EVER sign with the Mavs, no matter how many faxes they send.

Source:  Encyclopedia.com

Well Jim ended up staying (contracts will do that to you), but the Mavericks continued to flounder by averaging close to a 27-55 record the next 4 years.  This is impressive despite drafting win-producer Jason Kidd.  It seemed that the 3 J’s were destined to be part of a great future, but this wasn’t the case.  In 1996-97, all three were traded away as the team decided to go in a new direction under Don Nelson.

The 1999-00 Chicago Bulls finished with a 17-65 record, a few seasons removed from the Jordan era.  The team did have some promising rookies in Elton Brand and Ron Artest while bringing in John Starks and Bruce Bowen after trading away Toni Kukoc during the season.  The following season the Bulls drafted/acquired Brad Miller, Jamal Crawford, Marcus Fizer and Ron Mercer, but this time they won only 15 games including losing a franchise worst 21 straight games on the road.

Overall, the promise never amounted to anything as the team averaged a 22-60 during the four year stretch after the 1999-2000 season.  The overriding theme seemed to be concentrating on youth without enough experience as they fell into a pattern gambling on youth that failed to pan out including Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler and Jay Williams.

The 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers were able to collect some talent after two horrendous years.  However, Lamar Odom, Derek Anderson, Maurice Taylor and Michael Olowokandi only managed 15 wins while starting the season with a then NBA record of 17 straight losses.

On paper, this team’s untapped talent and balance — four players averaging more than 13 points per game, and arguably the largest collection of “he’s-got-great-upside” players — belies its results.

Source: NBA.com

In the following years, they garnered an impressive amount of talent on paper: Darius Miles, Quentin Richardson, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand and Andre Miller.  Guess what, all these young guys managed to contribute an average W/L record of 31-51 the following four years.

Now, there have been some deviations from the norm when franchises have decided to completely entrust their future in youth.  Namely, the Portland Trail Blazers come to mind.  After blowing up the Jail Blazers and some troubling players the next few years, they appear to be ready to challenge the league’s best for years to come.  However, it would appear it takes a special bunch of players like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge among others to make it happen.

Therefore, where does this leave the current Nets?  Coming into this year, there were no illusions, but there was hope that the Nets had put together a solid young core.  However, Dave Berri of The Wages of Win Journal made an interesting analysis of the Net’s franchise.  Basically, when Jason Kidd has not been on their team, they’ve been a bad team and his predictions don’t have anything changing that.

In addition, their terrible start is already affecting their morale:

“We don’t have any heart,” Chris Douglas-Roberts, the second-year guard, said. “It’s like we’re laying down. Weak. It’s a sign of weakness.”

Douglas-Roberts said the word was out on his team: “All you got to do is come out, punch them in the mouth and they’ll give up and run with their tail between their legs.”

Although the Nets were decimated by injuries early in the streak, they are nearly back to whole. Yet the fight they briefly showed in close defeats in early November is nonexistent.

“The spirit’s been broken a little bit,” said guard Devin Harris, the Nets’ lone All-Star.

Source:  New York Times

Uh-oh – hopefully, this is just a fleeting attitude and the Nets can put together a lot of solid performances.  Otherwise, you’ve got to believe they’ll continue to be tested mentally as other historically bad teams and it will take all their effort to stay together and focused on a common goal.

2) A second method of attempting to change years of bad fortune is through free agency.  A key signing or two could significantly change a team’s outlook.  However, there are multiple obstacles to this theory.  Poorly performing teams seem to have trouble acquiring or keeping top talent.

Let’s look at the top 30 players by salary (all over $14M). 15 of them are on teams that had over a .600 win% (50+ wins), while just 3 of them are on sub-.400 teams. In other words, the most successful teams employed 1.67 of these elite players on average, while the worst teams employed just 0.375 elite players.

Source: Hawkonomics

These statistics were compiled from last year’s payroll and performance.  One can gleam two likely scenarios for this disparity.  One, top players usually have choices in their destination; thus, they choose to play for a winning team that gives them a shot for a championship.  Two, poor performing teams usually suffer from the lack of capital necessary to sign major free agents.  Media outlets aren’t interested to pay top dollar to carry broadcasts while businesses and fans aren’t interested in sinking money for tickets, suites and other endeavors.

In one of the other historically bad teams we analyzed, the Chicago Bulls attempted to go the free agency route:

Remember, the summer of 2000 was supposed to be it. Actually, scratch that, Chicago had big designs on the summer of 1999, if we’re honest. And, if we’re to be completely accurate, the summer of 1998 was supposed to see all sorts of free agents flock to Chicago to eat up the team’s cap space. The summer of 1998 didn’t happen, for anyone. GM Jerry Krause saw the writing on the wall when most FAs signed with their old teams for more money in the truncated post-lockout offseason, and after talking up the 1999 offseason, he decided to make a few more cap-clearing moves and parlay that money (and two lottery picks) to the 2000 offseason.

Source:  ChicagoNow

As we can observe, the free agency route failed the post-Jordan Bulls.  Players obviously had no desire to come to Chicago despite the apparent available capital.  Therefore, what is there to ensure the same won’t happen to the Nets?  They’re off to a horrendous start, have historically been a well below average team and have put all their faith into a roster comprised of largely unproven young players.

However, the Nets do have two things in their favor.  First, it appears the long proposed move to Brooklyn will definitely happen.  Second, the Nets also have a new principal owner – Mikhail Prokhorov – one of the wealthiest men in the world.  Playing in the most dynamic sports city in American coupled with the deepest pockets can potentially bring in a top player or two.

They want a basketball team in Brooklyn – but not this one.

After the New Jersey Nets broke the record Wednesday night for starting an NBA season with the most consecutive losses – 18 – some borough sports fans had a message for owner Bruce Ratner as he tries to bring the team to Brooklyn: Start winning or don’t bother.

“I don’t want an 0-and-18 team coming to New York, especially to Brooklyn,” said Assane Ethols, 21, a Canarsie security guard. “It’s go hard or go home here.”

Source:  New York Daily News

It looks like a lot DOES ride on this season so let’s hope the current group starts playing better.

If you feel your team is deficient in scoring and/or threes towards the end of a draft, I’d suggest you load up on some A-Mo.  No, not the stuff for the shotgun you’ve got stashed in the closet (or guitar case), but rather Anthony Morrow.  He’s the new rising gunslinger in the NBA who plays for the always entertaining Golden State Warriors.

This unheralded sharpshooter really came out of nowhere.  He played four years at Georgia Tech and while he led the team in scoring two of those years, he didn’t make much of an impact on the college scene.  Consequently, he wasn’t even picked in the 2008 NBA Draft.

He started to make a name for himself by participating in three summer leagues that included an MVP of the 2008 Rocky Mountain Revue.  In four games, he put up 21 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 2.75 3PTM while shooting just a hair under 50%.  That performance propelled him in landing a contract with the Golden State Warriors.

At the start of last year’s regular season, most fans still had no idea who Anthony Morrow was.  Well, all that changed on November 15th when Coach Don Nelson surprised A-Mo by giving him his first NBA start.  However, Nellie got the bigger surprise.  Against the Clippers, Mr. Undrafted put up 37 points, 11 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 TOs and 4 3PTM making an absurd 15 of 20 FG’s and 3 of 3 FT’s.  Morrow’s reaction?

“It was a fun game, man,” said a humble Morrow, who added 11 rebounds in his 42 minutes on the court. “I just wake up every day like, ‘I’m in the NBA.’ I thank God for it.

Source:  San Francisco Chronicle

Humble?  Talk about unpresumptuous!  Anthony just had the game of his life and he’s this modest?  It’s just simply amazing when you consider he just set a record for the most points by an undrafted rookie during the common draft era.  Moreover, Anthony didn’t stop there.  In spotty minutes (a Nellie staple), he went on to lead all NBA players in 3 point shooting percentage by putting up an impressive clip of 46.7%.

Still need some more convincing?  Ok, let’s give a mention of his performance in the 2009 Summer League.  While Anthony Randolph was drawing plenty of ooh’s and aah’s, A-Mo saved the best for last.  In Golden States’ last game, A-Mo went for 47 points including 7 of 9 3PTM – that’s the highest point total ever in the league’s six year history!

So far in six games of the preseason, Anthony has put up an impressive statline.  According to Dougstats.com, he is averaging 19.7 points, 3.2 3’s, 3.3 rebs, 1.3 steals and .8 TO’s in only 29.7 minutes!  He’s shooting an eye popping 55% from the field to go along with 95% from the foul line.  For those interested in 3 point percentages, how does 51% grab you?

Alright, now that I’ve got you salivating like a hungry dog, let’s talk about what you can expect out of A-Mo this season.  Last year, finding time on the court was a difficult proposition considering the Warriors had an overabundance of wingmen.

Well, this year, things got a little easier.  First, Jamal Crawford and Marco Belinelli are with other teams.  Second, Morrow gives the Warriors a true catch and shoot SG.  A Stephen Curry/Monta Ellis combo is vastly undersized plus Stephen probably isn’t ready to produce effectively enough as a starter.  Kelenna Azubuike will steal some time of the time at SG but will also have to play some SF and PF.

Third, and most importantly, Stephen Jackson has rocked the boat.  Although, there is news he has decided to amicably go along with the program, I’m not buying it.  Jackson made it pointedly obvious several times that he didn’t feel welcome in GSW.   Al Gore famously once said, “A zebra does not change it’s spots”.   Haha, nice try but we get the idea.

In my opinion, Golden State received terrible offers over the last few weeks so the only hope is to raise his value.  Both parties are going to put up a front that they’ve moved on and will try to prove that on the court.  Once they are able to show Jackson can still be an effective asset, they have a much better chance on moving him.  When that happens, A-Mo will be locked and loaded.

I know some of you have been burned by a player under Nellie a time or two.  However, this time, I think the outcome will be much more positive.  First, when Nellie gloated about players in the preseason like Belinelli or Mike Dunleavy in the past, they failed to live up to the hype on the court.  A-Mo has been on fire.  Second, Nellie also likes to make his point obtrusively obvious with players that don’t go along with his program (see Al Harrington or Jamal Crawford).  From all reports, Anthony Morrow is an extremely hard worker who has no discipline problems.

Just recently, Nellie has changed his stance regarding A-Mo.  At the start of preseason, Nellie was talking about keeping the SG spot fluid.  However, in recent days, he has changed his opinion about leaning towards including Morrow in the starting 5.  While Nellie is more than likely going to change his mind another half a dozen times, it is painfully obvious Anthony Morrow can play.

Even with limited minutes, it is obvious he will put up numbers that make him worth owning in standard leagues.  Last year, he had a 9 category ranking on Basketball Monster of 145 and on Ziguana of 156.  Factor in a few more minutes and standard improvement by a young player, that value is most certainly going to be higher.  However, don’t be upset if that value is exponentially higher when Nellie decides to really commit to Morrow.

To the Charlotte Bobcats faithful (if such a group actually exists): be afraid. Be very afraid. The rumor mill has unrestricted free agent Allen Iverson re-uniting with Hall of Fame Coach Larry Brown in Charlotte to make one more run at winning an elusive championship ring. As a result of last season’s failed Detroit experiment and Iverson’s attitude throughout, he is quickly becoming the league’s number one pariah.

Former Piston Allen Iverson needs a team, and ex-Pistons coach Larry Brown needs a scorer. Just think, they could reunite.

Seven years after his famous rant in Philadelphia during a feud with Brown over missing practice, Iverson is set to become unrestricted free agent. Brown is coaching the low-scoring Bobcats, and Iverson was recently spotted in Charlotte. It’s fueled speculation Iverson, who had a difficult season in Detroit, could be paired with Brown again. Iverson’s agent, Leon Rose, said his client would be willing to play for Brown again.

“I love Allen,” Brown said.

Source: The Detroit News

If last season proved anything about AI, its that he can completely destroy team chemistry and alter the fate of franchises. Simply compare last season’s Detroit Pistons against the Denver Nuggets. Granted, that comparison provides as much insight into the character of Chauncey Billups as it does Iverson so take it with a grain of salt.

But what does Iverson really have to offer the Bobcats?

He is a definite liability on defense but would be surrounded by defensive-oriented players (in typical Coach Brown fashion) that can help cover for AI. Last season, the Bobcats struggled to put points on the board, as they were 27th in offensive efficiency (compared to 7th in defensive efficiency). So on the surface Iverson seems to address Charlotte’s biggest deficiency. But is he the right type of scorer the Bobcats need?

Iverson is not the Answer for Charlotte. He is a 33 year old undersized shooting guard in a point guard’s body who has entered the post-prime stage of his career. He can no longer be “the man” on any team and yet is at the same time unwilling to accept any other role. To cap it all off, AI has always been a high volume, low efficiency scorer (career field goal percentage of .425), which is not ideal when paired with adeclining abilities.

So, is Iverson worth the gamble?

No. Even considering the fact that there will not be as much interest in Iverson this offseason, his chemistry-disrupting potential is way too high for a team with as much talent as Charlotte has. This summer’s free agent class has a few other options that make more sense for the Bobcats if they are looking for instant offense. Ben Gordon or Carlos Boozer are both guys that have proven that they can score over twenty points a game.

Hell, if the Bobcats are committed to signing an undersized, inefficient guard just sign Nate Robinson (career field goal percentage of .427) or Jamal Crawford (career field goal percentage of .404). At least they are younger and have better attitudes (they might even show up to every practice too).