Basketball Free For All

Against all odds, it appears the Memphis Grizzlies are no longer one of the worst teams in basketball this season. Wednesday’s overtime victory against the Cleveland Cavaliers showed exactly how far this young team has progressed since last year. As evidenced by his performance against the Cavs, Zach Randolph (34 points on .526/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three on 1.00 percent shooting, 14 rebounds including 7 offensive boards, 2 assists, 4 steals, 1 blocks and 1 turnover) has emerged as one the Grizzlies’ primary weapons and leaders on the court.

Gulp.

Anyone who watches basketball knows that over the years, Randolph has accumulated quite a rap sheet from his off the court antics. Shoplifting, battery, underage drinking, fighting with teammates, driving while under the influence of marijuana, reckless driving, etc. On the court, Zandolph has also built up a solid resume of selfish play and boneheaded mistakes that has caused him to bounce around since the Jailblazers era. He is a lock for 20 and 10 almost every night but his quest to “get his” has often come at the expense of wins for his teams.

Exhibit A: Worst. Possession. Ever.

On young teams, veteran leadership is crucial to team success. At 28 years of age on one of the younges teams in the league, Randolph has to be considered a veteran leader, for better or worse. Take a look at the ages of the other starters for Memphis: Mike Conley (22), O.J. Mayo (22), Rudy Gay (23) and Marc Gasol (25). In addition, the rotation also includes two rookies in DeMarre Carroll (23) and Hasheem Thabeet (22), second-year project center Hamed Haddadi (24) and fourth year point guard Marcus Williams (24). The only other main rotation player older than Randolph is Jamaal Tinsley (31) who also comes with his own set of on and off the court baggage.

When a front office takes such a young and promising roster and makes Randolph the primary veteran leader on the floor and in the locker room, it raises more than a few eyebrows. Most people (myself included) expected an absolute train wreck from day one. In reality, just the opposite has occurred. The Grizz so far have improved their winning percentage from last season (.293 in 2008-09 compared to .429 this season). They’ve managed to win eight out of their last twelve games including wins over quality opponents such as Cleveland, Dallas and Portland.

But why should we think Randolph is a major reason for the Grizzlies’ success this season?

First, the Grizzlies have had a relatively stable roster since last season with Z-Bo being the main addition. The Grizzlies added a couple of rotation rookies via the draft this offseason, but certainly not immediate impact players, like Tyreke Evans or Brandon Jennings. The Grizzlies also dabbled in free agency, including Jamaal Tinsley and Allen Iverson (spectacular fail), and trades (Z-Bo). But Memphis’ main core was largely intact. Last season, the combination of Mayo, Gay, Gasol, Conley, Darrell Arthur and Haddadi accounted for 64 percent of Memphis’ minutes. This season, that same crew is responsible for 58 percent of the Grizz’s minutes, with the difference being Arthur’s 7 percent out of the rotation due to injury. Randolph represents the single biggest addition this season and has logged 15 percent of the team’s minutes.

Second, there has been a strong correlation between how Randolph performs and whether the Grizzlies win. It seems that every team has at least one “barometer” player that they depend on to play well in order to win basketball games. For example, for the Suns it is Jason Richardson; for the Thunder it is Jeff Green. For the Grizzlies this season, it has been Zach. In the ten games in which Randolph has tallied twenty or more points, Memphis is 7-3. Clearly there is some anecdotal evidence supporting the claim that Randolph is a major reason for why the Grizzlies have improved this season.

So what does Randolph bring to the table and has his game changed this season?

Randolph brings a legitimate scoring threat from the four position, which the Grizzlies sorely lacked last season. It is also important to note that Z-Bo can create his own shot in iso situations, which again Memphis lacked from it’s big men ranks. About half of his shot attempts are jump shots and half are close (at the rim and tip-ins). His close attempts are largely a result of his excellent work on the offensive glass (ZR currently ranks first in total offensive rebounds and fourth in offensive rebound percentage). He also ranks among the league leaders in field goals (12th), field goal attempts (19th), total rebounds (8th), points (20th), rebounds per game (10th), PER (17th) and total rebound percentage (15th). Zach is clearly an asset on the offensive side of the floor, although it should be noted that he has ranked among the league’s worst outlet passers when it comes to igniting the fast break.

Zach’s liabilities are exposed on the defensive end of the floor. This season, the Grizzlies have allowed opponents to score 1.5 more points when Randolph is on the floor than when he sits. In addition, he doesn’t really do anything exceptionally on the defensive end. He doesn’t steal the ball (0.7 steals per game, career), he doesn’t block shots (0.3 blocks per game, career) and he doesn’t draw many charges (0.05 charge rate; for reference Steve Nash has a charge rate of 0.50). One of his positives on the defensive end of the floor is that Z-Bo rarely fouls (2.4 per game over his career). It is clear that Memphis did not bring Randolph in to be a defensive game-changer.

This season, there have been some noticeable changes to Randolph’s game. His usage has dropped considerably from his career average of 28.1 percent to 23.7 percent this season, which represents his lowest usage since 2002-03. Most surprisingly, he has accepted this lower usage rate gracefully which has no doubt contributed to better team chemistry on and off the court. His shot selection has also experienced minor changes; most notably he has cut down on three point attempts (down to 0.2 per game this season from 1.9 last season) with positive effects on his field goal percentage.

It is also interesting to note that his field goal percentage is over .500 on the season for the first time since 2002-03, the same season in which he saw his lowest usage percentage. This combination of lower usage and less three point attempts has allowed Randolph to score more efficiently this season, which is always a good thing. These two trends can most likely be attributed to the influence of Coach Lionel Hollins as it is doubtful that Zach would make these changes on his own. The result has been a net positive for Zach and the young Grizz squad.

But what about team success? We’ve always known Randolph could ‘get his’ but is it leading to more wins this season?

To evaluate team success, Dean Oliver provided us with a simple and powerful means of breaking down offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in his seminal book on advanced basketball statistics, Basketball on Paper. If you haven’t read Dean’s book, I highly recommend it, as he is largely responsible for kicking advanced basketball metrics into high gear. The Four Factors Oliver came up with to explain team success (or lack thereof) can loosely be thought of as shooting (eFG%), turnovers (TOV%), rebounding (ORB%) and free throws (FT/FGA). Oliver used these simple categories to analyze teams on both the offensive and defensive end of the floor.

Let’s examine Memphis’ Offensive Four Factors from last season and compare them to this season.

2008-09 Offensive Four Factors
eFG%: .486 (23rd)
TOV%: .148 (27th)
ORB%: .258 (20th)
FT/FGA: .249 (9th)

2009-10 Offensive Four Factors
eFG%: .496 (16th, better)
TOV%: .148 (26th, same)
ORB%: .319 (1st, MUCH BETTER)
FT/FGA: .245 (10th, same)

On offense, it appears that Randolph did help make the Grizzlies better. In particular his .505 effective field goal percentage (on 15.1 attempts) has helped provide modest increases in Memphis’ team effective field goal percentage. Z-Bo has had the biggest effect on the offensive glass, as we would expect from his league leading numbers in offensive rebounding. However, Memphis leaping to the number one spot in the league from 20th overall last season is what is really impressive. Obviously, Randolph is not solely responsible for the increase (Marc Gasol?) but he is no doubt a key player in these two improvements to the Grizzlies’ offensive efficiency.

Thus, the argument that Randolph has helped the Grizzlies on the offensive end appears to be backed up by the offensive efficiency numbers. Now take a look at the Defensive Four Factors for Memphis.

2008-09 Defensive Four Factors
eFG%: .515 (26th)
TOV%: .141 (7th)
ORB%: .265 (16th)
FT/FGA: .247 (19th)

2009-10 Defensive Four Factors
eFG%: .531 (29th, same)
TOV%: .129 (24th, MUCH WORSE)
ORB%: .267 (13th, same)
FT/FGA: .201 (5th, MUCH BETTER)

On the defensive end, it is more of a mixed bag for the Grizz. On the positive side, Memphis has been better about not fouling on defense. As mentioned earlier, Randolph does not foul very much, which has had a positive effect on the team as a whole. He is most likely only partly responsible for this improvement but you can probably also credit the progression of the young Grizzlies players in general. Learning how to play defense in the NBA without fouling takes experience; simple as that. They area in which the Grizzlies regressed defensively this season is in forcing turnovers, something which Randolph does not do very well at all. Randolph is most likely partly culpable as he doesn’t steal the ball, take charges or force defenders into making bad passes.

Some concluding thoughts.

It appears that this season, Z-Bo’s personal success is finally starting to translate into more team wins. Randolph’s skills fill a need for the Grizz; they needed a guy that can create his own shot and clean up the offensive glass. In the end, it appears that the gains on the offensive ends have outweighed the losses on the defensive end. With Gasol and Randolph beasting it for the young Grizzlies squad, maybe Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace might be a bit savvier than most people have given him credit for?

According to Yahoo! Rankings, guess who was the most valuable player during week 5?  Old unreliable Marcus Camby.  Hard to argue though considering he averaged (over a 4 game span) 12.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, 3 assists, 2.5 steals and 3.0 blocks.  You want efficiency too?  How about a 58 FG% and only 1.3 TO’s?  Lesson here is to start thinking about selling high (if you haven’t already).  He’s injury prone, 35 years old and a Blake Griffin return is on the horizon.

Week Six Schedules

Four Games: CHI, DAL, GSW, IND, MIA, MIL, NYK, PHO, TOR, WAS

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DEN, DET, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, NJN, PHI, SAC, UTA

Two Games: LAC, NOH, OKC, ORL, POR, SAS

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Ersan Ilyasova – We’ve been touting this guy for 3 weeks now but he’s still only owned in 40% of all yahoo leagues.  This past week, he averaged 14.5 points (on 42.6 FG% and 77.8 FT%), 1.3 3ptm, 8.8 rebounds, 1.5 stls with only .5 TO’s.  With Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut still disabled and the Bucks enjoying a 4 game week, he could be a serious monster.

Luke Ridnour – As previously stated, Redd is still looking at missed games due to a sore knee. In his stead, Luke has been hot when given solid run.  He’s averaged 15 points (on 54.5 FG% and 100 FT%), .8 3ptm, 3.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and .8 steals.  He has the makings of a very good short term pickup so go ahead and take advantage.

Jamaal Tinsley – Never would have imagined I’d be touting the Tinman, but he has emerged as the best PG in Memphis.  Although he hasn’t officially been named the starter, it appears it’s only a matter of time.  His minutes are on a nice upward trend as Mike Conley is still mired in a season long funk.  Jamaal will give a boost in points, assists and steals with occasional 3’s.

Martell Webster – He’s probably been tossed between the waiver wire and a roster more than once, but he’s worth owning again.  Brandon Roy has spoken so no more 3 guard starting lineups.  Over the past five games, he has also shown he’s over his shooting funk with a 50 FG%.  In that span, he’s put up 14 points, 2.8 3’s, 5.8 rebounds and .8 blocks.

Nick Young – With Mike Miller’s recent injury, his DNP’s are long gone.  This time, he seems to be taking advantage of it as in 3 games he’s averaged 17.3 points and 1.3 3ptm.  Moreover, in watching the Wizards play the Heat, he impressed me.  His game has expanded beyond just scoring as I saw him compete defensively, make the right play and look for teammates.  It should translate into quite a few more boards, assists and defensive numbers than seasons past.

CUT LIST

Mike Conley – If Tinsley is on the add list, Conley definitely deserves to be on the cut list.  He hasn’t been able to snap out of a season long funk as he’s shooting 37.5% from the field (27.8% from 3) while posting a career worst 2.4 TO’s.  There is a good chance Mike will have a chance to regain significant time at the point down the line as Jamaal has been susceptible to injury or bad slumps himself.  However, no reason to wait for this to happen with him on your roster.

Randy Foye – At this point, it seems he can’t even beat out Earl Boykins/Nick Young.  If you picked him up when M&M went down, time to go back to the drawing board (unless 16 minutes of playing time is your cup of tea).

Brad Miller – Still owned in 50% of the leagues, uh why?  Barring some extreme matchups or foul trouble by teammates, his minutes are clearly going towards Taj Gibson and company.  Also, don’t forget that Tyrus Thomas will be in the mix in the not too distant future.

WATCH LIST

Omri Casspi/Donte Greene/Beno Udrih – Paul Westphal is still experimenting with lineups (until Kevin Martin returns) so the playing time and production of these 3 guys continues to waver.  I expect Donte Greene to be the short term loser (even though he’s started the last 3 games).  If he’s not hot, he’ll be sitting most 4th quarters to at least 1 if not both of the other guys.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see Beno also recapture a starting gig next to Tyreke Evans.

Allen Iverson – AI’s been beating on owners going back to last year but that may be changing in the near future.  His recent hasty retirement sparked some controversy in NBA circles as many (Larry Brown, John Thompson, countless of teammates) felt he acted too abruptly.  In my opinion, he is going to land on another roster (maybe Philly?) and could quite possibly turn out to be VERY relevant.  AI was ready to take on the world at the start of this year, but it didn’t work out.  Now with his supporters getting vocally behind him, I think it could give him the incentive to succeed this time round.

Jonas Jerebko – This Swede partially owes thanks to one of our loyal readers, John-O.  I was going to include him in the Deep League Specials area, but with others noticing his production, he deserves to be on everyone’s watch list.  Sunday, John Kuester changed his starting lineup to snap the Pistons out of their funk.  Lo and behold, it wasn’t the rookie getting the short end of the stick but rather Charlie Villaneuva.  To make matters even more appealing Charlie apparently broke his nose.  Jonas won’t overwhelm as the guards rule the team but he’ll continue to see 30+ minutes a game in the short term while giving solid boards and chipping in points, 3’s and defensive numbers on occasion.

STAY THE COURSE

Jared Dudley – Jared has cooled considerably since his strong start, but I advise owners who still haven’t punted him to stick with him.  First, Leandro Barbosa just hurt his ankle against the Raptors and appears he’ll be out anywhere from 2 games to 2 weeks.  Second, the Suns have a 4 game schedule this week.  Owners should prepare to be rewarded with solid 3’s and steals with decent points and boards.

Marcus Thornton – I know “buckets” hasn’t exactly set the world on fire the last 2 games but I don’t think his run is over.  First, he’s still the Hornets most explosive wingman.  Second, Peja has suddenly left the team for personal reasons.  If you can withstand another 2 game week, I think he’ll satisfy owners down the road as Chris Paul will soon be in control of his destiny.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Robin Lopez – The other twin is back from injury and in his first game back, he had an immediate impact for the Suns (8 points, 7 boards, 1 steal, 2 blocks).  Considering the need for a legitimate backup to Amare Stoudemire and Channing Frye, Robin should fill the role immediately.  Announcers noticed in that first game, he was quite winded early so once his conditioning gets in order, he has a good chance to increase productivity and consistency.

Damien Wilkins – Kurt Rambis promised to shake up the lineup and in Sunday’s game Wilkins started for the first time since the start of the season.  Considering the Wolves upset the Nuggets at their place while he contributed 15 points, 12 rebounds and 6 assists, I’d say he’s earned at least a few more starts.

With little NBA news to report on these days other than Tuesday’’s release of the upcoming 2009-10 schedule, it’s time to take a look at the best remaining free agent point guard out there, Raymond Felton. With all due respect to Allen Iverson, Jason Williams and less respect to Jamaal Tinsley, Felton is the best point guard available without a long term deal.

After being selected fifth overall by Charlotte in the 2005 draft, Felton has played his entire career in a Bobcats uniform and is now looking to secure his future with the franchise. The problem is that the big-wigs in Charlotte don’t seem to be in a rush to lock up his services for the long term.

Felton was the first point guard taken in the draft after Chris Paul and Deron Williams, respectively, and has done a good job of running the point for the past four seasons for a young Bobcats team. While averaging just over 35 minutes per game, Felton has provided respectable but not jaw-dropping production for his team. His career averages are: 13.6 points on 39.9/78.5 percent shooting, 6.7 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 0.2 blocks and 2.7 turnovers.

The most glaring deficiency in his game is the 2.8 turnovers he averaged per game in ‘08-’09, putting him at 15th overall in that category. He also is a poor shooter going just under 40% from the field and a lowly 28% beyond the arc last year. On the bright side, he is a durable player who has missed only nine games in four seasons.

So why is Felton getting the cold shoulder from his club?

The Bobcats have publicly stated that one of their off-season priorities is to sign him to a long term extension. Failure to do so would mean Felton would become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2010, which could also be called the summer of LeBron James. The highly touted free agent class of 2010 will be loaded with many All Stars who are all seeking maximum deals during a period of impending salary cap reduction. Which means GMs will be less willing to spend the big bucks on free agents when facing a dollar-for-dollar penalty for every dollar spent over the luxury tax threshold.

After a meeting last month with Charlotte GM Rod Higgins, Felton’s agent Kevin Bradbury walked away a little disgruntled saying:

“We’re definitely not close as far as what we’re discussing and what we think fair market [value] is for Raymond… At this point I’m not as encouraged as I was a day ago or even a week ago, but that doesn’t mean that it can’t get done.”

Source: CBS Sports

Both sides appear to be interested in hammering out a long term deal for Felton. The sticking point is how much should a player like Felton should command. While Felton cannot be considered a top tier talent at the point guard position like his draft mates Paul and Williams, he is a reliable young guard with the ability to run a team for many years to come. His agent believes he should command more that just the mid-level exception ($5.58M in ‘08-’09) but how much more?

It will be interesting to see what type of contract a player of his value is worth in today’s troubled economy. It would be in Felton’s best interest to get an extension done now versus trying to hit the big payoff next summer amid a barrage of talent and not enough money to go around.

What will those crazy Bobcats and Hall of Fame Coach Larry “trade ‘em all” Brown do next?

They are a hard team to figure out. The team is currently up for sale and recently traded the franchise’s supposed cornerstone and first draft pick in franchise history, Emeka Okafor, to New Orleans for Tyson Chandler and his bum toe. It would be surprising but not shocking if the Cats decided not to tender an offer to Felton and allowed him to play out his remaining contract and enter unrestricted free agency.

If Felton walked, they would be forced to turn over the keys to the driver’s seat to second year guard D.J. Augustin. That would seem like a huge gamble to let your starting point guard walk and place all of the burden on young Augustin, but hey, this is the Bobcats we are talking about here (a.k.a the New Memphis).