Basketball Free For All

With yet another NBA trade deadline coming and going, a lot of excitement and hope was generated among the fans and media.  Some teams were looking for that final piece that makes them championship material.  Others simply were looking for a player that helps them get into the postseason.  Lastly, there were a few who look at this time of the year as the highlight of the season as their team struggles to even be competitive on a nightly basis so might as well position themselves for the upcoming lottery.  Whatever the reasons, all fans hoped their team would have made a trade or two that improved future prospects.  Question is, how often can these deadline deals really be coined successful?

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Legends are born the same way fortunes are made in basketball: through clutch late game heroics. Among active NBA players, Hedo Turkoglu has a reputation for being a late game assassin who will take and make big shots. After all, his nickname is the Michael Jordan of Turkey as a homage to the League’s undisputed king of clutch.

Since winning the Most Improved Player Award for the 2007-08 season, Turk’s stock has risen steadily, culminating in last season’s deep post-season run complete with an NBA Finals appearance. Along the way, Hedo has steadily become known for being a guy that can be relied upon to hit the big shot.

Shots like that game winner against the Celtics last season stick in our collective memory banks further reinforcing Turk’s mythical clutch status. They also helped Hedo get a nice payday from the Toronto Raptors, who paid a premium (over $50 million over five years) to obtain the six-foot-ten forward’s services.

Take a look at the following quote that was taken from a post from Hoop Doctors, as it is fairly representative of Hedo’s Turk perceived status as a clutch shooter. The post lists the NBA’s most clutch shooters and has Turk ranked fifth overall, ahead of truly clutch players such as Chris Paul and Carmelo Anthony (neither of which make the list’s top fifteen clutch shooters).

Last season, Turk probably hit more clutch shots than anyone, but with a new home and a new team this season, it will be interesting if he still gets those same opportunities to be a game-saver. In the ’09 playoffs, Turkoglu showed he understands the moment by increasing his free throw, field goal, and 3-point percentages.

With that in mind, let’s first examine Turk’s shooting efficiency numbers.

Hedo’s shooting statistics are important because clutch shooting doesn’t only occur in the fourth quarter when the game is on the line. On the contrary, there are a number of important moments throughout a game that can be considered clutch. Coming out of a timeout in a must-score scenario involves clutch play whether in the first quarter of fourth. In fact, considering how precious each and every possession is in a basketball game, each play is rather significant and affects the outcome of the game.

So what do Hedo’s shooting statistics tell us about Hedo the shooter?

A lot actually.

In general, Hedo is not an elite shooter, no matter how you slice and dice the numbers. Looking at the raw shooting statistics, Turk is actually a below average shooter from the field, shooting .439 from the field this season this season and .413 last season. From deep, Turk is a fairly average shooter relative to all players that play over 30 minutes a game, shooting .398 this season and .356 last season. The raw numbers don’t look so hot but couldn’t that be a function of Hedo taking a large number of threes (4.6 three point attempts this season and 4.9 attempts in 2008-09)?

To control for three point attempts when considering shooting efficiency, consider effective field goal percentage. Effective field goal percentage compensates three pointers by weighting them according to their value (1.5 times a normal field goal). This season, Turk’s effective field goal percentage is slightly higher than the league average for players playing over 30 minutes a night (.523 versus average of .501). Last season, Turk was slightly below average (.478 versus an average of .506). Nothing mind blowing here and Hedo can probably be considered an average shooter amongst NBA starters.

If you divide the NBA shooters loosely into tiers, Turkoglu would not qualify for elite status. For comparison’s sake, let’s take a look at two of the league’s leading shooters this season to have a benchmark for what elite shooting statistics look like. When talking about great shooters, there is no better poster child than two time MVP Steve Nash. The Canadian Kid’s raw shooting statistics this season are .529/.431/.942 percent shooting. He is on track to join the extremely selective 50/40/90 club (again). If you consider effective field goal percentage, Nash’s shooting looks even more impressive at .595 percent. For a more recent member to join the top tier of shooters in the NBA this season, look no further than sophomore swingman Anthony Morrow. Morrow’s raw statistics are extremely impressive at .529/.514/.885 percent. His ridiculous three point percentage is the main driver of his equally ludicrous .641 eFG%. Compared to top tier shooters, Turk pales in comparison.

So he may not be an elite shooter but what about Hedo the clutch shooter?

With that in mind, let’s boil Turk’s down to the most clutch of all moments: fourth quarter/overtime scenarios when the game is on the line. Using 82 Games’ clutch criterion, clutch play is furthered narrowed down to the last five minutes when neither team is ahead by more than five points. These plays are the essence of clutch and provide an objective way of sorting fact from fiction.

The data from 82 Games has not been updated for this season so we can only go off of last year’s data. Much of the data is provided in per-48 minute form, meaning the statistics are scaled to 48 minutes of clutch time (as defined earlier). In these 48 minutes of clutch time (based off of a sample size of 134 minutes for Turk), Hedo averaged 26.6 points, which was good for 51st overall. Not terrible, but certainly not elite. More damningly, however, is Turk’s efficiency from the field during clutch time (.357), which was significantly worse than his season average and was good for 156th overall.

Compare these clutch numbers to a player like Lebron James and the contrast is startling. In his 48 minutes (compiled from a sample size of 111 minutes), James averaged 55.9 points on .556 percent shooting from the field, which represents a marked improvement upon his normal field goal percentage of .489. A truly clutch player rises to the occasion and elevates their performance to another level when the game is on the line. Turkoglu’s statistical track record just doesn’t mesh with people’s percetptions of Hedo the fourth quarter assassin.

It appears Hedo’s clutch shooting might have been a bit overblown. How can you explain that?

At risk of getting too philosophical, the problem lies within each of our minds as humans (don’t say I didn’t warn you). People have selective memories where we remember events that coincide with our preexisting beliefs and ignore events that contradict our beliefs. When we see Turk hit a buzzer beater on Sports Center it reinforces the idea that he is a clutch shooter. When we see Hedo miss a clutch three, it goes down as a non-event because it doesn’t gel with our preexisting perception that Turk is a clutch shooter.

For a real life example, check out the following quote from the New York Times that was written during the 2008-09 NBA Finals.

The line between success and setback blurred again for Turkoglu, who has developed into a clutch shooter for the Magic. With little time left in the game, Turkoglu has come up big for the Magic. His résumé includes a game-winning shot in the first round against the Philadelphia 76ers and several game-winners the past two regular seasons.

On Sunday Turkoglu delivered everything but the win.

“I saw an opening and threw it up,” Turkoglu said of his inbounds floater to Lee. “It would have been great for us because we played good.”

In this quote, you’ll notice that the author is paying homage to Turk’s reputation as a clutch shooter in a game that Turk didn’t even hit the game winner. In fact, the final shot wasn’t even put into his hands. Instead, the play was drawn up for Courtney Lee who infamously missed the wide open alley-oop. If Hedo was the clutch shooter as advertised, you can guarantee Coach Van Gundy would have drawn up the final play for Turk to shoot and not pass.

In the end, a lot of the blame for Turk’s inflated reputation as a clutch shooter lies with the media, who glorifies his late-game heroics (event) but ignores his failures (non-event). Once designated clutch, the media picks up the story and runs with it, creating a feedback loop. It parallels the talk from before this season’s draft, which had fans, announcers, coaches, players and everyone in between talking about what a weak draft pool it was. With Brandon Jennings increasingly the next anointed superstar, Tyreke Evans putting the Kings franchise on his back and first pick overall Blake Griffin having not even played a single minute yet this season, it is clear that the draft class of 2009 had bona fide superstars in its midst despite the media writing the entire class off as weak.

Before declaring Turkoglu one of the top five clutch shooters in the NBA based upon glowing accounts in the media, analyze the empirical evidence and make your own informed decision.

From the very outset of media day, the 2009 training camp and preseason has been interesting to say the least. The first shots were fired in the Bay but it didn’t take long for others to follow suit. The Warriors’ neighbors to the north, the Portland Trailblazers, have had their own drama brewing in the form of a bona fide position battle for the starting point guard spot.

After missing out on both Hedo Turkoglu and Paul Millsap earlier this summer, the Blazers faithful were getting restless. Kevin Pritchard had to make a move this offseason. Not only that, he had to make an impact move to appease the fan base and help take the Blazers to the next level. The ultimate aim was to make a move to help guide the young team deep into the postseason.

The move Pritchard eventually settled on was signing unrestricted free agent point guard Andre Miller to a three year deal ($14 million guaranteed during the first two years and a team option for the third year). Logically, it was a very good move. The Blazers are a very young team and can use the calming presence that the seasoned veteran floor general can provide, especially in the postseason.

Prior to signing Miller, it appeared that the Blazers were clearing out minutes for second year point guard Jerryd Bayless to get some additional run next season. Remember, they had sent the occasionally disgruntled Sergio Rodriguez to Sacramento in a draft day trade in order to acquire rookie prospect Jeff Pendergraph, thus opening up the backup point guard spot for JB.

Now, with two point guards on the roster that started last season, Portland is in the midst of an old fashioned position battler. Surprisingly, Steve Blake landed the first punch (and second, for that matter). And he did so by proxy, in the form of All-Star guard Brandon Roy.

At the very onset of training camp, Roy lobbied hard for Blake to maintain starter status next season.  Brandon extolled Blake’s selfless nature and talked about how comfortable he is playing alongside Blake. Round one, Blake. So it looked like franchise player B-Roy was not ready to welcome Miller to the starting unit just yet.

But not having Roy’s support right off the bat is something than can be overcome pretty easily for an old hand like Miller. In a further setback, Miller was the only player with a guaranteed contract in training camp who didn’t pass the Trail Blazers conditioning test. But that’s only part of the story. Blake completed the test in record-breaking fashion, positively dazzling head coach Nate McMillan in the process. Round two, Blake.

Suddenly, the position battle is starting to look grim for the new addition. Luckily for Miller, training camp provided an opportunity for Miller to get on the court with Roy and try and win his support. The early returns from Roy are extremely positive.

Roy said he and Miller formed an instant connection and the team “didn’t miss a beat” with them on the court together. Roy also praised the point guard’s unselfish play, deft passing, strong defense, versatility and basketball IQ. The chemistry between these two stars is one of the most pressing issues of training camp and Roy said a bond might develop faster than some expect.

The article also mentions the defensive versatility a Roy-Miller backcourt would provide in addition to the ability of both guards to play both the point and off guard positions. Improved defense is a surefire way to win Coach McMillian’s heart (they were 13th in defensive efficiency last season) and is one of his stated goals this offseason. If Miller were to make the Blazers’ offense even better too, it would be a scary thought indeed, as Portland already had the league’s most efficient offense last season. The Blazers’ offense gets slept on largely because of the slow pace at which Portland plays (last in the league in pace).

So who is likely to come out on top of Portland’s point guard position battle?

In the end, it seems very likely that it is only a matter of time before Andre wins the position battle for starting point guard in Rip City for one simple reason alone: money. Portland has recently become one of the best teams in the league as far as managing their money despite the fact that Darius Miles is the Blazers highest paid player until Brandon Roy’s maximum salary contract extension takes effect in 201o-11.

For the Blazers to commit $21 million to Andre Miller over the next three years says that they are committed to playing him and that he is going to be key to taking them to the next level. With Blake scheduled to be a free agent next season, his future with the franchise at this point is very much in doubt.

Miller has the front office behind him, is slowly winning franchise player Roy over and has a good chance of winning Coach McMillian over as well. If you ask me, the smart money is on Andre Miller to win out the starting point guard position battle and to be in the starting five on opening night.

The Philadelphia 76ers’ urestricted free agent Andre Miller has recently accepted a three-year $21M deal with the Portland Trailblazers. The deal includes a team option for the third season at $7M.

Portland was known to have been looking for a veteran backup for sometime to help provide some leadership on the floor as well as in the locker room.  Miller appears to be an excellent addition to a team that has recently been spurned by other notable free agents including Hedo Turkoglu and Paul Millsap. Miller gives them a clear upgrade at their point guard position over Steve Blake, who is a decent point guard in his own right.

Miller is a bigger tougher Chauncey Billups-type point guard who isn’t scared to post up smaller guards, get into the lane and draw contact. He isn’t a great shooter and has little-to-no ability to shoot the 3-ball but he is a savvy veteran that makes good court decisions and rarely turns the ball over.

This move allows Portland to play Brandon Roy at his natural two guard spot late in games, where he can wreak havoc on opposing defenses with his wide array of offensive abilities. Miller can act as the distributor to whoever has the hot hand, most likely Roy or LaMarcus Aldridge, while allowing Steve Blake and Jerryd Bayless to come off the bench as solid backups.

This is a solid move for Portland. Miller will help them expand on their recent success by winning a few more regular season games and possibly pushing them deeper into the playoffs.  They now have a strong cast of young talent and are deep at every position now with Miller on board.

Fantasy implications of this trade seem to benefit the young 76er back court of Lou Williams and recent UCLA draft pick Jrue Holiday. With Miller out of town these two should be expected to log heavy minutes from the get go with Williams most likely cast as the starting point guard (barring any new free agent acquisitions by the team of course). Williams is more of a pure scorer than a distributor but he could end up averaging around 35 minutes a game with the potential for 16 points per game, 5 assists, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, and 2 threes per game. The rookie Holiday is more of a gamble but could present some fantasy value especially later in the season (or especially in dynasty leagues).

The move essentially kills any value Steve Blake or Jerry Bayless would have had, as they most likely will see their minutes reduced. Brandon Roy should still be the fantasy stud he has been for the past few seasons and may prove to be even better with possible improvements coming in his efficiency and a reduced turnover rate as well. Miller should still be the same reliable work horse he has been for many seasons posting similar stats to his time in Philadelphia and Denver (he has only missed five games in ten seasons in the NBA).

After a tough summer for the Blazers, they seem to be catching a late stride and should provide an exciting brand of basketball next season for their fans.

People are naturally more comfortable with the familiar. Whether it be taking the same route to work every morning or watching your favorite movie fifty times, people like things to be predictable. I would have to guess that NBA players have the same comfort levels that we possessors of average athletic ability hold as well. They are not super heroes or somehow above the rest of us (although sometimes the media and the public’s perception points to this).

So why does it seem like there is such a lack of true loyalty among NBA players to one’s franchise, fans and city?

There used to be true loyalty among players in the league years ago. Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul Jabaar, Tim Duncan and Larry Bird all won multiple championships with one team. They stayed around through free agency and rebuilding periods and they got it done for their respective teams time and time again. Today it seems that there isn’t quite the same sense of devotion.

Players are too quick to bolt for a rival team if the pasture is greener on the other side (greener more often than not means more money). Think about all of the time, resources and effort a team has to put into a player that it views as the future of the franchise. The team is completely invested in the player from the scouting period, to the point when they sign their contract. Teams want that player to feel comfortable and at home in their city. They should feel important and desired and that is why NBA teams pull out all the stops when it comes to courting and retaining a franchise player.

Too often today teams and their loyal fans are being spurned by the same athletes they once cheered for. Take Hedo Turkoglu for example. After leading his Orlando Magic all the way to the franchise’s best season and a trip to the Finals, what does Hedo do in the off season? He leaves his championship caliber team and signs a deal (tentative) with the Toronto Raptors.

Why leave a team that obviously wants him and one that is in much better position to contend for a title than Toronto? It has to be money. The almighty dollar, especially in today’s economy, seems to have more pull than ever.

Ben Gordon has spent his entire career with the Chicago Bulls. After reportedly rejecting a 5 year $50 million deal from Chicago last season, he signed with the Pistons for 5 years and $55 million. Why not stay with the team that drafted you and allowed you to showcase your unique skill set instead of acting like a mercenary and leaving for which ever squad can pay you only a few million more?  I do realize it is disgusting and totally ridiculous to say “only a few million more,” but for an NBA player and their tax bracket it is only a drop in the bucket.

Trevor Ariza, after winning it all with the Lakers this year, bolts for Houston. Ron Artest took the Rockets farther in the playoffs than they had been in years. After Yao Ming went down, the Rockets were in need of someone to step in and take control of the young cast of talented role players they had assembled. Why not offer to make Artest one of your franchise cornerstones? Well you can’t if he signs with the Lakers, which turned out to be the case.

Dwayne Wade has been in the news recently talking about his future in Miami, or potential lack thereof. Wade basically stated that he would like to hold off on signing a multi-year extension with the Heat until he knows that they are working to put themselves in position to win a championship. Wade wants to make sure he is playing for a team that can contend for a title every year and is not just content to make the playoffs as a fifth seed.

I completely get this. Wade is entering the prime of his career, he can completely dominate a game and he wants to make sure his skills aren’t wasted on an average team. This guy is a winner and I respect his stance, but I am hoping he stays in Miami and wins another ring or two. It would be nice to see that level of commitment to a team that he once led to a championship and now has the opportunity to build a dynasty with. That is assuming the Heat do their part and bring in some talent.

With a number of the league’s brightest stars (Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar’e Stoudemire, for example) potentially going into free agency next season where will their loyalties fall? Will it be with their currnet team or will they follow the dollar to another city and fan base? I can only hope to see some of these players stay with the current teams and build a legacy in the tradition of some of the games biggest stars of years past.

He has many nicknames: The Warlock, the Polish Prince, the Polish Dr. J, the Polish Machine and most famously, the Polish Hammer. Heading into restricted free agency on Wednesday, there is reason to believe that the Pride of Poland, Marcin Gortat, is due for a considerable raise next season. And the team that wins the Gortat sweepstakes will be adding an important yet relatively unknown piece to their team.

Without Gortat, one can make the argument that the Magic would not have made it to the NBA Finals. With Dwight Howard suspended for game six against the 76′ers, the Magic needed a big night from Gortant. Marcin (MAR-chean) answered the call that night with 11 points on 62.5/50 percent shooting, 15 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 steals, and 3 turnovers. Most importantly, the Magic secured a win that night. During the playoffs, the Magic were 4-2 when Gortat played over fifteen minutes in a game (usually when Howard was in foul trouble).

Talk about flying under the radar. Gortat’s stats are really impressive and show why the Polish Hammer should actually be re-nicknamed as the Polish Sledge Hammer. His per-36 minute averages from his second season in the NBA are very promising indeed, tallying 10.9 points on 57.2/57.8 percent shooting, 13.0 rebounds (4.4 offensive), 0.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.4 blocks and 1.1 turnovers. Being only 24 years old, Gortat has his best years ahead of him and should improve over the next few years.

Let’s look at his offensive and defensive efficiency, exemplified by his offensive and defensive ratings. Last season, Gortat had an O-Rating of 121 and a D-Rating of 97. This is a +24 differential, which is extremely good (based on Basketball Reference’s statistics). In terms of PER, Gortat’s numbers were also impressive. When playing the center position, Gortat had a +5.8 PER differential versus the opposing team’s center  (via 82games’ stats by postion). So it is clear that Gortat has the skill to play big minutes in the NBA.

But what Marcin needs more than anything are minutes. Starter’s minutes. And it looks like Gortat may get his wish. With the Magic already in luxury tax territory (even without Hedo Turkoglu’s salary), they may not be able or willing to match a big offer sheet from another team. Last season, Gortat earned a paltry $711,517. For a legitimate seven foot big man who plays the center position and has proven that he can play at the NBA level, the sky is the limit (despite it being tough economic times and all). Gortat’s contract could vary from the mid level exception (which was around $5.5 million in 2008-09) up to around $8-9 million dollars per year.

If a team presents an offer sheet that the Magic cannot match, Gortat’s fantasy value has the potential to skyrocket. At some point in his career, Marcin will get out from behind Superman’s shadow. If Gortat ends up as a starter on an NBA team next season, Gortat would instantly become a viable first center for a fantasy squad. He does exactly what you expect from a center: he shoots from the field at a high percentage, rebounds and blocks shots. Granted his free throw percentage is awul but unlike his teammate on the Magic, he rarely gets to the line, which mitigates its impact to a certain extent.

At least now Gortat no longer has to be referred to as the big white dude that spells Howard off the bench. Or, as that scrub who got sponsored by Reebook even though he has a Jumpman tattoo on his calf. Or, for his “dunk” attempt in the 2004 German professional basketball league’s All-Star game’s dunk contest (see below).

Sorry for pulling that one out of the archives, Marcin. I still think you’re the man.