Usually 8 points and 8 boards is not something you’d get overly excited about — especially in the fantasy playoffs. But throw in 2.5 blocks per game, 11 percent ownership and plenty of minutes at the five in Memphis and you have rookie center Hasheem Thabeet with the best opportunity to produce of his young career.
With yet another NBA trade deadline coming and going, a lot of excitement and hope was generated among the fans and media. Some teams were looking for that final piece that makes them championship material. Others simply were looking for a player that helps them get into the postseason. Lastly, there were a few who look at this time of the year as the highlight of the season as their team struggles to even be competitive on a nightly basis so might as well position themselves for the upcoming lottery. Whatever the reasons, all fans hoped their team would have made a trade or two that improved future prospects. Question is, how often can these deadline deals really be coined successful?
As we arrive at the mid-point of the season, it becomes apparent that the early season success of a few players is more than just a fluke hot start. These players may have been decent contributors in the past but never gained mainstream attention outside of their own team’s fan base. These are the players that should be considered for the Most Improved Player Award.
Against all odds, it appears the Memphis Grizzlies are no longer one of the worst teams in basketball this season. Wednesday’s overtime victory against the Cleveland Cavaliers showed exactly how far this young team has progressed since last year. As evidenced by his performance against the Cavs, Zach Randolph (34 points on .526/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three on 1.00 percent shooting, 14 rebounds including 7 offensive boards, 2 assists, 4 steals, 1 blocks and 1 turnover) has emerged as one the Grizzlies’ primary weapons and leaders on the court.
Gulp.
Anyone who watches basketball knows that over the years, Randolph has accumulated quite a rap sheet from his off the court antics. Shoplifting, battery, underage drinking, fighting with teammates, driving while under the influence of marijuana, reckless driving, etc. On the court, Zandolph has also built up a solid resume of selfish play and boneheaded mistakes that has caused him to bounce around since the Jailblazers era. He is a lock for 20 and 10 almost every night but his quest to “get his” has often come at the expense of wins for his teams.
Exhibit A: Worst. Possession. Ever.
On young teams, veteran leadership is crucial to team success. At 28 years of age on one of the younges teams in the league, Randolph has to be considered a veteran leader, for better or worse. Take a look at the ages of the other starters for Memphis: Mike Conley (22), O.J. Mayo (22), Rudy Gay (23) and Marc Gasol (25). In addition, the rotation also includes two rookies in DeMarre Carroll (23) and Hasheem Thabeet (22), second-year project center Hamed Haddadi (24) and fourth year point guard Marcus Williams (24). The only other main rotation player older than Randolph is Jamaal Tinsley (31) who also comes with his own set of on and off the court baggage.
When a front office takes such a young and promising roster and makes Randolph the primary veteran leader on the floor and in the locker room, it raises more than a few eyebrows. Most people (myself included) expected an absolute train wreck from day one. In reality, just the opposite has occurred. The Grizz so far have improved their winning percentage from last season (.293 in 2008-09 compared to .429 this season). They’ve managed to win eight out of their last twelve games including wins over quality opponents such as Cleveland, Dallas and Portland.
But why should we think Randolph is a major reason for the Grizzlies’ success this season?
First, the Grizzlies have had a relatively stable roster since last season with Z-Bo being the main addition. The Grizzlies added a couple of rotation rookies via the draft this offseason, but certainly not immediate impact players, like Tyreke Evans or Brandon Jennings. The Grizzlies also dabbled in free agency, including Jamaal Tinsley and Allen Iverson (spectacular fail), and trades (Z-Bo). But Memphis’ main core was largely intact. Last season, the combination of Mayo, Gay, Gasol, Conley, Darrell Arthur and Haddadi accounted for 64 percent of Memphis’ minutes. This season, that same crew is responsible for 58 percent of the Grizz’s minutes, with the difference being Arthur’s 7 percent out of the rotation due to injury. Randolph represents the single biggest addition this season and has logged 15 percent of the team’s minutes.
Second, there has been a strong correlation between how Randolph performs and whether the Grizzlies win. It seems that every team has at least one “barometer” player that they depend on to play well in order to win basketball games. For example, for the Suns it is Jason Richardson; for the Thunder it is Jeff Green. For the Grizzlies this season, it has been Zach. In the ten games in which Randolph has tallied twenty or more points, Memphis is 7-3. Clearly there is some anecdotal evidence supporting the claim that Randolph is a major reason for why the Grizzlies have improved this season.
So what does Randolph bring to the table and has his game changed this season?
Randolph brings a legitimate scoring threat from the four position, which the Grizzlies sorely lacked last season. It is also important to note that Z-Bo can create his own shot in iso situations, which again Memphis lacked from it’s big men ranks. About half of his shot attempts are jump shots and half are close (at the rim and tip-ins). His close attempts are largely a result of his excellent work on the offensive glass (ZR currently ranks first in total offensive rebounds and fourth in offensive rebound percentage). He also ranks among the league leaders in field goals (12th), field goal attempts (19th), total rebounds (8th), points (20th), rebounds per game (10th), PER (17th) and total rebound percentage (15th). Zach is clearly an asset on the offensive side of the floor, although it should be noted that he has ranked among the league’s worst outlet passers when it comes to igniting the fast break.
Zach’s liabilities are exposed on the defensive end of the floor. This season, the Grizzlies have allowed opponents to score 1.5 more points when Randolph is on the floor than when he sits. In addition, he doesn’t really do anything exceptionally on the defensive end. He doesn’t steal the ball (0.7 steals per game, career), he doesn’t block shots (0.3 blocks per game, career) and he doesn’t draw many charges (0.05 charge rate; for reference Steve Nash has a charge rate of 0.50). One of his positives on the defensive end of the floor is that Z-Bo rarely fouls (2.4 per game over his career). It is clear that Memphis did not bring Randolph in to be a defensive game-changer.
This season, there have been some noticeable changes to Randolph’s game. His usage has dropped considerably from his career average of 28.1 percent to 23.7 percent this season, which represents his lowest usage since 2002-03. Most surprisingly, he has accepted this lower usage rate gracefully which has no doubt contributed to better team chemistry on and off the court. His shot selection has also experienced minor changes; most notably he has cut down on three point attempts (down to 0.2 per game this season from 1.9 last season) with positive effects on his field goal percentage.
It is also interesting to note that his field goal percentage is over .500 on the season for the first time since 2002-03, the same season in which he saw his lowest usage percentage. This combination of lower usage and less three point attempts has allowed Randolph to score more efficiently this season, which is always a good thing. These two trends can most likely be attributed to the influence of Coach Lionel Hollins as it is doubtful that Zach would make these changes on his own. The result has been a net positive for Zach and the young Grizz squad.
But what about team success? We’ve always known Randolph could ‘get his’ but is it leading to more wins this season?
To evaluate team success, Dean Oliver provided us with a simple and powerful means of breaking down offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in his seminal book on advanced basketball statistics, Basketball on Paper. If you haven’t read Dean’s book, I highly recommend it, as he is largely responsible for kicking advanced basketball metrics into high gear. The Four Factors Oliver came up with to explain team success (or lack thereof) can loosely be thought of as shooting (eFG%), turnovers (TOV%), rebounding (ORB%) and free throws (FT/FGA). Oliver used these simple categories to analyze teams on both the offensive and defensive end of the floor.
Let’s examine Memphis’ Offensive Four Factors from last season and compare them to this season.
2008-09 Offensive Four Factors
eFG%: .486 (23rd)
TOV%: .148 (27th)
ORB%: .258 (20th)
FT/FGA: .249 (9th)
2009-10 Offensive Four Factors
eFG%: .496 (16th, better)
TOV%: .148 (26th, same)
ORB%: .319 (1st, MUCH BETTER)
FT/FGA: .245 (10th, same)
On offense, it appears that Randolph did help make the Grizzlies better. In particular his .505 effective field goal percentage (on 15.1 attempts) has helped provide modest increases in Memphis’ team effective field goal percentage. Z-Bo has had the biggest effect on the offensive glass, as we would expect from his league leading numbers in offensive rebounding. However, Memphis leaping to the number one spot in the league from 20th overall last season is what is really impressive. Obviously, Randolph is not solely responsible for the increase (Marc Gasol?) but he is no doubt a key player in these two improvements to the Grizzlies’ offensive efficiency.
Thus, the argument that Randolph has helped the Grizzlies on the offensive end appears to be backed up by the offensive efficiency numbers. Now take a look at the Defensive Four Factors for Memphis.
2008-09 Defensive Four Factors
eFG%: .515 (26th)
TOV%: .141 (7th)
ORB%: .265 (16th)
FT/FGA: .247 (19th)
2009-10 Defensive Four Factors
eFG%: .531 (29th, same)
TOV%: .129 (24th, MUCH WORSE)
ORB%: .267 (13th, same)
FT/FGA: .201 (5th, MUCH BETTER)
On the defensive end, it is more of a mixed bag for the Grizz. On the positive side, Memphis has been better about not fouling on defense. As mentioned earlier, Randolph does not foul very much, which has had a positive effect on the team as a whole. He is most likely only partly responsible for this improvement but you can probably also credit the progression of the young Grizzlies players in general. Learning how to play defense in the NBA without fouling takes experience; simple as that. They area in which the Grizzlies regressed defensively this season is in forcing turnovers, something which Randolph does not do very well at all. Randolph is most likely partly culpable as he doesn’t steal the ball, take charges or force defenders into making bad passes.
Some concluding thoughts.
It appears that this season, Z-Bo’s personal success is finally starting to translate into more team wins. Randolph’s skills fill a need for the Grizz; they needed a guy that can create his own shot and clean up the offensive glass. In the end, it appears that the gains on the offensive ends have outweighed the losses on the defensive end. With Gasol and Randolph beasting it for the young Grizzlies squad, maybe Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace might be a bit savvier than most people have given him credit for?
June 25, 2009, Madison Square Garden.
The eyes of the NBA world were all on a small group of young gentlemen, primed and ready to make a mark for themselves in a league full of hopes and dreams. It would start pretty much as expected for the likes of Blake Griffin, Hasheem Thabeet, Tyreke Evans and others. But what was supposed to be the beginning of an illustrious career in the NBA, quickly turned into a roller coaster ride of despair, then excitement, for one such prospect.
Originally considered a lottery pick by several outlets, a total of 25 teams passed up on DeJuan Blair, some of them twice (four times by the Timberwolves alone!). It wasn’t until the second round, at pick number 37 overall, when the San Antonio Spurs made Blair’s dream of playing in the NBA a reality. But even with the adversity of falling to the second round, this strong-minded young man was able to put things in perspective:
Despite being taken in the second round of the NBA Draft last night, Pitt All-American DeJuan Blair has no regrets about turning professional after his sophomore season.
“No, this is what I wanted,” Blair said this morning on a conference call the day after the San Antonio Spurs drafted him with the No. 37 overall selection. “I think it was a good decision. I couldn’t have landed in a better situation than I am in now. [San Antonio] just traded Kurt Thomas, their starting forward. It’s a dream come true. I should have been a first-round pick, but God wanted me to drop to the second round.”
Source: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Oh yeah – DeJuan Blair is a Spur.
So now comes the hard part. In many ways, the same dis-service to DeJuan Blair is now replaying itself over and over again in fantasy drafts all across the land. DeJuan Blair has fallen off the radar, not even making the ADP lists or rankings of several high profile fantasy sites (BFFA included!).
But what is there not to like about this kid?
In two years at the University of Pittsburgh, he averaged 13.6 points on 56.4% shooting, with 10.7 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Even by college standards, those are pretty good numbers. He was a consensus First Team All-American, and was the 2008-09 Big East co-Player of the Year, sharing that title with the 2nd overall pick in this year’s draft, Hasheem Thabeet.
So what could have possibly happened to make 25 NBA teams pass on DeJuan Blair? He’s not a bad person. He’s not a bad player. What gives?
The answer is simple…minus two.
As in the number of ligaments DeJuan Blair is missing… in his knees!
Yes, if you haven’t heard the story by now, DeJuan Blair is missing, not one, but both ACLs in his knees. Apparently, 25 NBA general managers feel it’s important to have one’s ACLs if one intends to play basketball in the NBA. The blurb in Yahoo!’s draft night recap even said this:
One team official even said he couldn’t find Blair’s ACLs on the medical scans.
Source: Yahoo! Sports
Wow. Just the thought that such bias, such prejudice, towards a missing ligament could keep this young man from fulfilling his dream to play in the NBA. It’s simply unfathomable! And keeping him off your cheat sheet or ADP list – why, that’s undeniably inexcusable!
Alright, alright…yes, a bit much on the theatrics.
But the point is much the same – don’t sell DeJuan Blair short on draft day, especially in a deep league (14+ teams) or keeper and dyansty formats. In standard leagues, keep him on your watch list (unless you’ve taken a last round flier on him). And keep these points in mind when your friends are ragging on you for your lack of intelligence in taking DeJuan Blair:
And if you’re still on the fence about Blair, consider this – when commenting on the Spurs latest acquisition, columnist Buck Harvey wrote:
Still, one staffer in the draft room Thursday said there were “cartwheels and high-fives,” and R.C. Buford later gushed as he rarely does about any draft pick.
An especially daring prediction: Blair will play 20 minutes a night.
Source: mySA.com
And Gregg Popovich has said Blair will play this year. If he works his way into the rotation, he could be a very sneaky-good addition at the forward position.
He’s a player who could get the most out of 20 minutes plus per game. He’s a player who could easily average double digit scoring and rebounding. He’s a player with a strong conviction and strong work ethic – someone who will continue to fight for the ball, relentlessly, until he gets it.
And he’s a player with a chip on his shoulder the size of the great state he plays in.
To those 25 GM’s who passed on DeJuan Blair, Spurs fans have this to say…
“ACLs ?!? We don’t need no stinking ACLs!”
2009 NBA Draft Results
*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.
| # | Team | Player | Prior Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | Blake Griffin | University of Oklahoma |
| 2 | MEM | Hasheem Thabeet | University of Connecticut |
| 3 | OKC | James Harden | Arizona State University |
| 4 | SAC | Tyreke Evans | University of Memphis |
| 5 | MIN | Ricky Rubio | DKV Joventut |
| 6 | MIN | Jonny Flynn | Syracuse University |
| 7 | GSW | Stephen Curry | Davidson College |
| 8 | NYK | Jordan Hill | University of Arizona |
| 9 | TOR | DeMar DeRozan | University of Southern California |
| 10 | MIL | Brandon Jennings | Lottomatica Roma |
| 11 | NJN | Terrence Williams | University of Louisville |
| 12 | CHA | Gerald Henderson | Duke University |
| 13 | IND | Tyler Hansbrough | University of North Carolina |
| 14 | PHO | Earl Clark | University of Louisville |
| 15 | DET | Austin Daye | Gonzaga University |
| 16 | CHI | James Johnson | Wake Forest University |
| 17 | PHI | Jrue Holiday | University of California, Los Angeles |
| 18 | MIN to DEN | Ty Lawson | University of North Carolina |
| 19 | ATL | Jeff Teague | Wake Forest University |
| 20 | UTA | Eric Maynor | Virginia Commonwealth University |
| 21 | NOH | Darren Collison | University of California, Los Angeles |
| 22 | POR | Victor Claver | Pamesa Valencia |
| 23 | SAC | Omri Casspi | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
| 24 | DAL to OKC | B.J. Mullens | Ohio State University |
| 25 | OKC to DAL | Rodrigue Beaubois | Cholet |
| 26 | CHI | Taj Gibson | University of Southern California |
| 27 | MEM | DeMarre Carroll | University of Missouri |
| 28 | MIN | Wayne Ellington | University of North Carolina |
| 29 | LAL to NYK | Toney Douglas | Florida State University |
| 30 | CLE | Christian Eyenga | DKV Joventut |
| 31 | SAC to POR | Jeff Pendergraph | Arizona State University |
| 32 | WAS to HOU | Jermaine Taylor | University of Central Florida |
| 33 | POR | Dante Cunningham | Villanova University |
| 34 | DEN to HOU | Sergio Llull | Real Madrid |
| 35 | DET | DaJuan Summers | Georgetown University |
| 36 | MEM | Sam Young | University of Pittsburgh |
| 37 | SAS | DeJuan Blair | University of Pittsburgh |
| 38 | POR to SAC | Jon Brockman | University of Washington |
| 39 | DET | Jonas Jerebko | Angelico Biella |
| 40 | CHA | Derrick Brown | Xavier University |
| 41 | MIL | Jodie Meeks | University of Kentucky |
| 42 | LAL to MIA | Patrick Beverley | Dnipro |
| 43 | MIA to NOH | Marcus Thornton | Louisiana State University |
| 44 | DET to HOU | Chase Budinger | University of Arizona |
| 45 | MIN | Nick Calathes | University of Florida |
| 46 | CLE | Danny Green | University of North Carolina |
| 47 | MIN | Henk Norel | DKV Joventut |
| 48 | PHO | Taylor Griffin | University of Oklahoma |
| 49 | ATL | Sergiy Gladyr | MBC Mykolaiv |
| 50 | UTA | Goran Suton | Michigan State University |
| 51 | SAS | Jack McClinton | University of Miami |
| 52 | IND | A.J. Price | University of Connecticut |
| 53 | SAS | Nando De Colo | Cholet |
| 54 | CHA to OKC | Robert Vaden | University of Alabama at Birmingham |
| 55 | POR | Patrick Mills | Saint Mary's College of California |
| 56 | DAL | Ahmad Nivins | Saint Joseph's University |
| 57 | PHO | Emir Preldzic | Fener Bahce Ulker |
| 58 | BOS | Lester Hudson | University of Tennessee at Martin |
| 59 | LAL | Chinemelu Elonu | Texas A&M University |
| 60 | MIA | Robert Dozier | University of Memphis |
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