Basketball Free For All

After week twelve, we’ve officially reached the half-way point of the regular season, which means it is mid-season adjustment time. Now is a perfect time to evaluate your team’s cumulative performance and assess your strengths and weaknesses. For head-to-head leagues, check your punting strategy and consider whether it makes sense to adjust your strategy going forward. For roto leagues, now might be time to consider big trades to shore up any weaknesses. Any team can be improved with the right moves; just don’t make the classic mistake of making a move for the sake of, well, making a move.

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The San Antonio Spurs are struggling this season. For a franchise that has been synonymous with winning over the past decade, the Spurs are having a disappointing season despite being 17-11 (.607 W-L%) and very much in the playoff mix. Their 33 year old franchise player, Tim Duncan, is still putting up numbers consistent with his career averages while also posting a career high in free throw percentage. However, being a middle of the pack playoff team is not a successful season for a team that has won four out of the last eleven championships.

Throughout these four championship seasons, there have been two constants: the aforementioned once-in-a-decade franchise player, Tim Duncan, and the second best active head coach in the NBA, Gregg Popovich. It is impossible to talk about either one of these two mythical figures in isolation, as their careers are so intertwined with Pop’s first full season as head coach of the Spurs being Duncan’s rookie season. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Pop and Duncan retire at the same time (2011 at the earliest, although 2012 is more realistic).

Each of the Spurs’ four championships was predicated on their defensive prowess, as orchestrated by Pop and anchored by Duncan. Everything else is built around supporting stars (Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili now; Sean Elliott and David Robinson earlier) and role players (Antonio McDyess and Roger Mason now; Bruce Bowen and Robert Horry earlier). The Spurs’ genius lies in blending the franchise player, supporting stars and role players together into a defensive juggernaut and an above-average offensive team.

Take a look at the following table, which looks at all of the Duncan-led Spurs. It compares the Spurs’ offense (O-Rating, or points scored per 100 possessions), defense (D-Rating, or points allowed per 100 possessions) and the Differential between the two (O-Rating minus D-Rating equals Differential; the higher the positive number the better). The table also lists the average O-Rating/D-Rating for each season, as it varies from year to year, and the individual rankings for each O-Rating and D-Rating.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

* Championship season
~ Lockout-shortened season

Perusing the chart, the defensive numbers jump off the page. They were a top five defensive team in every season leading up to this year with Duncan. This season, the Spurs have dropped to 14th overall, which is the first time a Duncan era Spurs team has been an average defensive team instead of an elite defensive team. On the offensive side of things, the Spurs have been an average offensive team only finishing in the top five once (it will be twice if the Spurs continue to play at this exact level all season).

The Spurs’ philosophy has always been that an average offense is fine as long as the defense is elite, which leads to a high differential. Notice that if you sort the chart descending according to differential three of the Spurs’ four championships cluster near the top? It is most certainly not a coincidence.

Now take a look at the Spurs’ current season, which can be referred to as their Bizarro Season. This season, the formula for the Spurs has been flipped on it’s head, with the Spurs being a top five offensive team and average defensive team. Notice that the Spurs still have a decent positive differential but remember that the fundamental formula for this Spurs team has changed somewhat radically from all previous Duncan-led Spurs.

What is responsible for this flipping of the proverbial script?

Let’s look at the personnel turnover from last season to this season to see which players were holdovers, which players were subtracted and which players were added.

Holdovers: Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Roger Mason, Matt Bonner, George Hill, Michael Finley

In this group, we have our franchise player, supporting stars and four of the Spurs’ key role players from last season. Hill has solidified his role as backup point guard and efficient scorer off the bench. Mason has stepped in as the third string point guard and has also filled the void left by Big Shot Rob. Finley’s role this season has been drastically reduced (18.3 minutes per game), although he can fill in at either the two or three if injuries should require it. Bonner plays the role of the stretch four, spotting up for threes in the corners and looking to clean the glass.

Subtracted: Kurt Thomas, Ime Udoka, Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, Drew Gooden, Jacque Vaughn

This group is all role players, almost all of which are above average to excellent defenders, either on the perimeter or in the post. Thomas is the consummate professional who plays extremely smart post defense and is an excellent role model for younger bigs. Oberto is like a watered down version of Thomas; together they represent a large exodus of post defense and veteran savvy. Gooden was more of an offensive-focused big man than Kurt or Fabricio but is still an average defender as well. Bowen is the quintessential Spurs perimeter defender, although it was clear he had lost a step last season. Udoka was also a solid defender and was relatively versatile, as he was able to guard the perimeter or the post. Finally, Vaughn was a decent defender at the point and was a solid fill-in to spell Parker off the bench. In all, the Spurs lost a ton of defensive minded role players.

Added: Richard Jefferson, DeJuan Blair, Antonio McDyess, Keith Bogans, Theo Ratliff

The Spurs gained one borderline supporting star/role player and four other role players to try and fill the void left by the outgoing players. R-Jeff has the physical skill-set to be a lock-down defender, although he has traditionally made his name through his offense. Blair is a promising rookie, who will be a destructive force on the glass for his career. However, he is still young and plays for Popovich, who is hesitant to play rookies big minutes. Bogans has started for the Spurs and is being groomed to take over for Bowen, locking his man down on defense and spotting up for the corner three and making opposing defenses pay for doubling off of him. Ratliff and McDyess were brought in on minimum contracts to man the paint and bring the veteran savvy that Kurt and Fabricio Oberto provided.

Let’s run down the list one more time to look for changes. Same coach (Pop). Same franchise player (Duncan). Same supporting stars (Parker and Manu). No difference here. But when you examine role players, here is where big changes start to become apparent. They have replaced departed perimeter defenders (Udoka, Bowen) with fresh perimeter defenders (Jefferson, Bogans). They have replaced post defenders (Thomas, Oberto, Gooden) with fresh post defenders (McDyess, Ratliff, Blair).

However, just swapping these players out has not been as seamless as a transition as the Spurs front office and other observers probably expected. Something was lost in translation and the Spurs’ defense has stumbled out of the gates. Recently, Coach Popovich summed up what was lost very nicely.

Still, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich remains bullish on the team’s offseason investments. He continues to urge patience with his newcomers as they adjust to their new team, and their new team adjusts to them.

“What I’m learning is we lost more corporate knowledge than I thought,” said Popovich, whose team is 13-10 after a 2-1 Western road trip. “It’s taken a little bit more time than I thought to get everybody on the same page.”

Source: San Antonio Express-News

The corporate knowledge that Pop is talking about above is what was lost. The replacement players are all capable individual defenders but have no experience playing in the Spurs defensive system. Spurs defense is position defense that demands crisp defensive rotations that can only be effective when executed as a unit. If any of the five men on the floor are out of sync then the entire defense crumbles and opposing teams can take advantage of weaknesses. The study of this season’s Spurs illustrates not only the importance of role players but also the importance of having continuity with your role players from season-to-season.

As a die-hard Suns fan, I’ve learned one lesson over the years when dealing with the San Antonio Spurs: never under any circumstances underestimate them or count them out. As history has shown, Popovich is a brilliant coach and is one man that is capable of rising to the challenge of getting his team to play to the best of their abilities, especially on the defensive end of the floor. If Pop and Duncan can get their team firing on all cylinders in time for the Playoffs, San Antonio is going to be a very difficult matchup for anyone in the Western Conference.

June 25, 2009, Madison Square Garden.

The eyes of the NBA world were all on a small group of young gentlemen, primed and ready to make a mark for themselves in a league full of hopes and dreams. It would start pretty much as expected for the likes of Blake Griffin, Hasheem Thabeet, Tyreke Evans and others. But what was supposed to be the beginning of an illustrious career in the NBA, quickly turned into a roller coaster ride of despair, then excitement, for one such prospect.

Originally considered a lottery pick by several outlets, a total of 25 teams passed up on DeJuan Blair, some of them twice (four times by the Timberwolves alone!). It wasn’t until the second round, at pick number 37 overall, when the San Antonio Spurs made Blair’s dream of playing in the NBA a reality. But even with the adversity of falling to the second round, this strong-minded young man was able to put things in perspective:

Despite being taken in the second round of the NBA Draft last night, Pitt All-American DeJuan Blair has no regrets about turning professional after his sophomore season.

“No, this is what I wanted,” Blair said this morning on a conference call the day after the San Antonio Spurs drafted him with the No. 37 overall selection. “I think it was a good decision. I couldn’t have landed in a better situation than I am in now. [San Antonio] just traded Kurt Thomas, their starting forward. It’s a dream come true. I should have been a first-round pick, but God wanted me to drop to the second round.”

Source: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Oh yeah – DeJuan Blair is a Spur.

So now comes the hard part. In many ways, the same dis-service to DeJuan Blair is now replaying itself over and over again in fantasy drafts all across the land. DeJuan Blair has fallen off the radar, not even making the ADP lists or rankings of several high profile fantasy sites (BFFA included!).

But what is there not to like about this kid?

In two years at the University of Pittsburgh, he averaged 13.6 points on 56.4% shooting, with 10.7 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game. Even by college standards, those are pretty good numbers. He was a consensus First Team All-American, and was the 2008-09 Big East co-Player of the Year, sharing that title with the 2nd overall pick in this year’s draft, Hasheem Thabeet.

So what could have possibly happened to make 25 NBA teams pass on DeJuan Blair? He’s not a bad person. He’s not a bad player. What gives?

The answer is simple…minus two.

As in the number of ligaments DeJuan Blair is missing… in his knees!

Yes, if you haven’t heard the story by now, DeJuan Blair is missing, not one, but both ACLs in his knees. Apparently, 25 NBA general managers feel it’s important to have one’s ACLs if one intends to play basketball in the NBA. The blurb in Yahoo!’s draft night recap even said this:

One team official even said he couldn’t find Blair’s ACLs on the medical scans.

Source: Yahoo! Sports

Wow. Just the thought that such bias, such prejudice, towards a missing ligament could keep this young man from fulfilling his dream to play in the NBA. It’s simply unfathomable! And keeping him off your cheat sheet or ADP list – why, that’s undeniably inexcusable!

Alright, alright…yes, a bit much on the theatrics.

But the point is much the same – don’t sell DeJuan Blair short on draft day, especially in a deep league (14+ teams) or keeper and dyansty formats. In standard leagues, keep him on your watch list (unless you’ve taken a last round flier on him). And keep these points in mind when your friends are ragging on you for your lack of intelligence in taking DeJuan Blair:

• DeJuan Blair had surgery on both his ACLs in high school. Since that time, Blair has played injury-free, never once missing a practice or game.

• DeJuan Blair has numerous accolades throughout his high school and college career, including a high school state championship, and the 2007-08 Big East Tournament Championship.

• In two “official” pre-season games with the Spurs, DeJuan Blair’s lines have been 16/19 with one steal, and 28/4 with two steals, respectively.

And if you’re still on the fence about Blair, consider this – when commenting on the Spurs latest acquisition, columnist Buck Harvey wrote:

Still, one staffer in the draft room Thursday said there were “cartwheels and high-fives,” and R.C. Buford later gushed as he rarely does about any draft pick.

An especially daring prediction: Blair will play 20 minutes a night.

Source: mySA.com

And Gregg Popovich has said Blair will play this year. If he works his way into the rotation, he could be a very sneaky-good addition at the forward position.

He’s a player who could get the most out of 20 minutes plus per game. He’s a player who could easily average double digit scoring and rebounding. He’s a player with a strong conviction and strong work ethic – someone who will continue to fight for the ball, relentlessly, until he gets it.

And he’s a player with a chip on his shoulder the size of the great state he plays in.

To those 25 GM’s who passed on DeJuan Blair, Spurs fans have this to say…

“ACLs ?!? We don’t need no stinking ACLs!”

There’s no denying that the San Antonio Spurs have been one of the most successful franchises in the last decade, compiling four championships in a span of ten years. The only other team to do that recently accomplished the feat this past season and featured some guy named Kobe.

But when talking fantasy, the Spurs are no juggernaut. Let’s face it –- if you’re drafting a fantasy team this year and you take a Spur, chances are his last name is Duncan, Parker or Ginobili.

However, that may all change next season due to several moves the Spurs have made that have put the words fantasy relevant back into the same sentence as San Antonio Spurs. One newly acquired Spur in particular has a good chance to exceed his current average draft position. What may surprise you though, is that this Spur isn’t named Richard Jefferson.

Try Antonio McDyess.

The Spurs have always had a player or two outside of the Big Three that dabbles with fantasy relevance each season. For example, Matt Bonner (no, that was not a typo) or Roger Mason both had fantasy value through several stretches last year. This year, it’s McDyess that stands to gain fantasy relevance by a simple formula — less is more.

Last season as a starter in 30 games with the Detroit Pistons, McDyess averaged 12.1 points on .514/.775 percent shooting, 11.0 boards, 1.6 assists, 0.6 assists, 1.2 blocks and 0.9 turnovers per game. But he did so playing close to 35 minutes a game. Sports writers, fantasy gurus and managers alike were all waiting to see the eventual break down of Antonio McDyess.

Fortunately for McDyess (and Spurs fans), the break down never came –- at least, not physically. It was more like he just ran out of gas. By the time the Pistons reached their first round playoff matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers, McDyess was unable to reach the level of play he did during the month of March, when he had a string of ten double digit scoring games in a row.

Unfortunately for the Pistons, he also played the most minutes of his season during that same stretch — four games of 41 minutes plus, including a marathon 51 minute effort against the Houston Rockets. And the Pistons lost, by the way.

Ouch.

Once the playoffs started, the Cavs easily clamped down on McDyess, allowing him only 26 points total through the first three games. To put things into perspective, McDyess scored 26 points in the Pistons’ game four loss alone. With that loss to the Cavaliers, the 2008-09 Pistons were swept into the history books.

Hey Antonio: want a take-back on the decision to negotiate a buyout with Denver to return to Detroit?

However, Dyess’s situation in San Antonio is better than it could be anywhere else. As a Spur, he could start at either the four or the five alongside Duncan. Theo Ratliff and Matt Bonner aren’t fantastic coming off the bench, but they can provide enough of that ever so important rest for a savvy vet like McDyess.

And with Gregg Popovich being the one head coach notorious for setting his rotations in stone (well, more or less), McDyess could see a steady run of 25-27 minute games, easily a work-load he could handle at this stage in his career.

And with those minutes, expect quality stats, especially in rebounding, blocks and field goal percentage. A line of 8.8 points and 8.2 rebounds on over fifty percent shooting from the field and low turnovers would be a safe bet with 26 minutes per game. Because the Big Three carry the primary offensive load, Mcdyess would be allowed to simply focus on boards and defense –- so it’s very possible his 1.2 blocks remain steady and his field goal percentage rises as a result of getting easy looks and put-backs.

If everything breaks just right, you’re looking at a very nice late round flier in standard leagues, or a solid late round value pick in deeper ones. Currently, McDyess’s Buser Sports average draft position is 147 and his Yahoo! O-rank is 150. This puts his preseason value at around the 13th round in a standard 12-team league.

But (there is always a “but” somewhere, right?), keep an eye on McDyess during training camp and the preseason. The Spurs have some youth in their ranks that they are very high about including DeJuan “I don’t need no stinking ACL’s!” Blair and Ian Mahinmi.

All joking aside, Mahinmi has shown flashes of athleticism, which the Spurs seriously lack in their front court. As a rookie, Blair has enough motivation after being snubbed in the first round of the 2009 NBA Draft to last a lifetime. Let’s just hope his medical miracles of knees can last as long as his will.

Coach Pop and the Spurs have made it no secret that they intend to play these two young big men next season. What will be of concern is whether they cut into those quality minutes McDyess was acquired to play. Training camp and the preseason should give us a better idea, although one must be careful not to read to deeply into preseason games.

But if all indications are correct and McDyess starts alongside Duncan and his minutes per game hit that magic number of 26 or more, it’s very possible ‘Dyess meets or exceeds expectations if drafted after the twelfth round.

Picking up Antonio McDyess in the later rounds of your draft could yield solid dividends from your third or fourth power forward or center, especially if you’re looking for a player to give you quality stats in limited minutes. He may not give you top 100 returns, but by the time the season starts, his average draft position could continue to plummet, making Antonio McDyess a true Sleeper in Seattle San Antonio.

Step aside Lebron James, the real king of the NBA is Tim Duncan. The fact of the matter is that no other active NBA player has had a bigger impact on the game than the Big Fundamental. The only other candidates even in consideration would  be former teammates Kobe Bryant or Shaquille O’Neal.

Take a look at the San Antonio Spurs’ record during the Duncan era. Granted, TD has had a solid supporting cast of role players and complimentary stars but the consistent success at a high level is remarkable. The other major factor at work during the Tim Duncan era is the outstanding coaching from Gregg Popovich.

Among active coaches, the only other coach who parallels Pops’ level of coaching is the Zen Master himself, Phil Jackson. Popvich’s biggest strength as a coach is his ability to maximize the production and effectiveness of his role players to support his franchise player and complimentary stars.

What really stands out is the high level of winning, consistent across Duncan’s career. The winning percentages by season range from 0.646 to 0.768. From a cumulative perspective, Duncan’s Spurs have won .703 of their games. Considering the fact that these are statistics spanning twelve seasons, it is really a remarkable feat.

Winning .703 percent of games is really good for any franchise in any given season (that translates to an average of 57.6 wins per season). Doing it consistently for over a decade is what makes it truly a remarkable feat. Not to mention the four rings they collected along with the winning seasons.

The credit really goes to both Duncan and Popovich, as their rise to mythical status will be perennially intertwined (Co-Kings?). In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Popovich retired when Duncan decides to throw in the towel. Pop has always had a maverick streak in him.

The numbers don’t lie. And the numbers say that the real kings of the NBA are located in San Antonio.