Basketball Free For All

Before we get to the good stuff, I just wanted to mention that we’ve experienced some trouble on the website as hackers thought we were an enviable target.  We have to assume they were unhappy with Plonden’s advice, but regardless, we lost Deebo’s post/comments and I’ve had to redo this week’s preview (that’s why it was late).  Regardless, lesson to be learned – BACK UP everything you do somewhere!

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Week 11 was dominated by the Gilbert Arenas saga finally coming to a head, leaving owners with tough decisions to make about whether to hold or fold their Agent Zero hand. More on that dilemma and the fantasy fallout below. Beyond that, we saw Danny Granger and Troy Murphy return to the starting lineup for the Pacers, altering the fantasy landscape in Indy for the thousandth time this season. Along with the Golden State Warriors, the Pacers have been one of the most unpredictable fantasy teams so far this season.

Season Tracker

The 2009-10 season is 44 percent complete.

Week 12 Schedules

Four Games: DET, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, NOR, NYK, OKC, PHX, SAS, UTA, WAS

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, ORL, PHI, SAC, TOR

Two Games: NJN, POR

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 38%) For some inexplicable reason, Hinrich is still under the 40% ownership threshold despite being moved into the starting unit recently. In his eight starts this season, Hinrich averaged 12.1 points on .412/.769 percent shooting, 2.1 threes, 4.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Another key statistic to look at with Captain Kirk is his three point percentage, as the Bulls are desperate for outside shooting. As a reserve, he has shot a pedestrian .322 percent from downtown. As a starter, he has shot an impressive .459 from long range. Hinrich deserves pretty much universal roster consideration.

Erick Dampier (C – 37%) For the entire season, Dampier is putting up top-100 value while providing decent production for a third or fourth string center. His season averages are 8.0 points on .667/.582 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.4 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 turnovers. Dampier is a four category specialist (FG%, REB, BLK, TOs) while being a negative in the remaining five categories. He finally appears to be getting healthy again after having to deal with “wear-and-tear” of the left knee. Give Damp a go if you are looking for traditional big man stats and can handle his low scoring.

Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 27%) There has been widespread speculation that Gomes would be moved into Minnesota’s starting five sometime relatively soon. Regardless of whether or not he is starting, Ryan should get enough burn to provide fantasy value, especially for those looking for decent scoring off the waiver wire. Over the past two games, Gomes has averaged 15.0 points on .458/.875 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Gomes, while normally primarily simply a scorer, has shown flashes of stat-stuffing. Add Ryan if you have a dropable player to see if he can improve upon his recent strong play.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 21%) Some players just don’t get much respect, whether it be in real life or in fantasy basketball. Apparently, Rasual Butler is one of those players as his actual value and ownership percentage are definitely out of whack. Over the past two weeks, a period that saw Butler play in six games and average over 34 minutes per game, he posted top-50 value. During that period Rasual averaged 12.8 points on .467/.857 percent shooting, 2.5 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. Butler is a nice glue guy, providing a nice boost in threes on low turnovers while also providing decent blocks for a guard-eligible player.

Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 21%) Another player that has had a nice run over the past two weeks is Matt Barnes. You may recall Barnes being featured in last week’s preview article by my distinguished colleague, RedHopeful. Pretty much everything Oleh said then still stands. Over the past two weeks, Matt has averaged 13.4 points on .600/.778 percent shooting,1.1 threes, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.4 turnovers.

Rafer Alston (PG – 18%) Alston has to feel like the luckiest player in the NBA right now; it is an absolute certainty. Rafer was waived by the league’s worst team, the 3-33 New Jersey Nets, and signed with the 18-16 Miami Heat, who are currently the fifth best team in the East. In his first game in a Heat uniform (this season), he immediatley leap-frogged both Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers and joined the starting unit. Skip is in line for big minutes for the Heat and should be a good choice for threes, assists and steals if you can handle his offensive field goal percentage.

Ronny Turiaf (PF/C – 6%) It’s always a gamble recommending any Golden State Warrior these days but Turiaf feels like a very strong player for a couple of reasons. First, Anthony “Everyone’s Favorite Sleeper” Randolph recently went down with an ankle injury with no official timetable released yet. However, the injury appears to be relatively serious so we can assume he’ll miss all of this week’s games. Second, fellow big man Andris Biedrins has struggled getting up to speed since returning from his groin injury that sidelined him for most of the season. By default, Turiaf becomes one of the Warriors primary big men in the rotation and he should be an excellent source of blocks off the wire.

Watch List

J.J. Redick (PG/SG – 16%) With Vince Carter out with an injured shoulder, Redick immediately gets upgraded to watch list status. In Carter’s absence, Redick posted a strong line against the Atlanta Hawks dropping 17 points on .583 percent shooting, 3 threes, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. He has even been praised by Coach Stan Van Gundy recently for his play throughout the entire season. In fact, Redick has been really solid over the past four games seeing over 28 minutes per and averaging 16.5 points on .422/.895 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.5 turnovers.

Flip Murray (SG – 5%) If you are looking for cheap scoring off the waiver wire, there may not be a better option out there than Murray. RIght now, Flip is locked-in and playing excellent basketball for the Bobcats. Over the past week, Ronald is ranked well inside of the top fifty players averaging 17.3 points on .550/.933 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.5 turnovers in four games. His percentages are excellent, making his scoring and threes that much more valuable.

A.J. Price (PG/SG – 1%) A.J. officially proved that he belonged in this league after being selected in the second round of this season’s draft. Price set multiple career-highs against the Thunder on Saturday including minutes played, points scored and threes made. In that watershed game, Price posted 23 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 3 threes, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, o blocks and 2 turnovers. With the Pacers going nowhere this season and both Earl Watson and T.J. Ford playing themselves out of the rotation, Price is poised to carve himself a nice niche for the Pacers.

Deep League Special

Donte Greene (SG/SF – 4%) Greene’s window of opportunity is rapidly closing. With Kevin Martin due back sometime relatively soon, Greene will likely take a hit in touches, minutes and production. Thus, Donte should only be viewed as a short-term band-aid in deeper leagues. Over the past two weeks, he has put up top-100 value, making him an extremely valuable pickup in deep formats. In that same span, he averaged11.4 points on .489/1.00 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.0 turnovers.

Keyon Dooling (PG – 2%) At this point in his career, Dooling is a proven commodity, with a decade of experience in the Association. Playing for a relatively young and inconsistent team, he is a veteran presence on and off the court. While he is still rounding into game shape after having offseason hip surgery, Dooling finally showed signs of life recently when he dropped 21 points on the Hornets on Friday. His career per-36 minute stats are 13.3 points on .420/.798 percent shooting, 1.o threes, 2.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.1 turnovers and are a good guide if Dooling were to consistently get big minutes either due to injury of a teammate or simply due to the inconsistent play of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts.

Jon Brockman (SF/PF – 1%) If awesome nicknames were a fantasy category, the Brockness Monster would be a category carrier. But alas, we are left with having to rely on actual production on the basketball court. In that respect, Brockman’s toughness and football-like build have translated to him being an absolute beast on the boards and earning his fresh nickname (12.8 rebounds per-36 minutes). Recently, Brockman even got the starting nod against Denver pushing teammate and general fantasy disappointment Spencer Hawes to the bench. Grab the rebounding monster if you need help on the glass.

Cut List

Larry Hughes (SG/SF – 39%) The Knicks have won three of their last four games. Hughes has seen four consecutive DNP-CDs. Coincidence? I think not. Larry, welcome to Coach Mike D’Antoni’s dog house. Make yourself comfortable; you’re gonna be here a while.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 20%) It is hard to recommend a player for cutting who posted such nice fantasy value earlier in the season. However, barring a trade involving either Elton Brand or Samuel Dalembert, Speights is most likely going to be without fantasy value. If you want further proof that his run is (for now) over, check out his minute totals for his past four games: 6:22; 9:51; 12:01 and 11:11.

Luther Head (PG/SG – 12%) What a difference a week can make. Last week, he was on our Add List. This week he is on our Cut List. That is Luther Head’s career in a nutshell.

Buy Low

Caron Butler (SG/SF – 98%) With Agent Zero suspended indefinitely, Butler has moved up the food chain a notch in Washington. Butler’s best seasons of fantasy value have come with Arenas on the sidelines so there is hope to believe that he will resume his productive ways of the past (top five in per game value in 2007-08 when Arenas only played 13 games; top 30 in per game in 2008-09 when Arenas only played two games). At this point in the season, Butler has posted only top-75 value so it is a decent bet that he will have a much better second half of the season with Arenas most like done for the year.

Pau Gasol (PF/C – 99%) It may be hard to consider top ten player a buy low but that is exactly the case with Pau. Having missed a decent number of games this season with hamstring injuries on both legs, many owners are getting tired of the Lakers’ kid glove treatment of Gasol. When owners are frustrated or are struggling in the standings, you can often get a good deal for the right player. Throw out a solid second-round talent for Pau and see if the other owner bites. You may end up with one of the best big men in both fantasy and in real life.

Sell High

Samuel Dalembert (C – 64%) The problem with selling high is that nobody wants to do it because owning a hot player is so much fun. It’s why we play fantasy sports. However, with a guy like Sammie, if you can get enough value for him you have to pull the trigger. Over the past two weeks, Dally has been a top five talent. Stop and let that sink in. TOP FIVE. During that span, he has averaged 10.9 points on .667/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 3.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. He will never be able to keep this pace up for the rest of the season, especially not with Eddie Jordan waiting in the wings to screw everything up. SD is the qunitessential sell high right now.

Lamar Odom (SF/PF – 89%) With Pau out for at least one more game, your window to move Odom for maximum value is limited. Over the past week, Odom has been positively beastly, putting up a rugged 14.0 points on .548/.700 percent shooting, 0.8 threes, 15.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.0 turnover. Wow. In that span of four games, Odom has been a top ten player in per game value so throw out some trade offers and see if you can get a bona fide stud in return for Mr. Kardashian.

Mystery Man

Gilbert Arenas (PG – 73%) At only 73 percent ownership, the Great Arenas Exodus of 2010 has begun. Let’s face it, the chances of Gilbert playing again this season are slim. However, it is not so cut and dried as to whether he should be simply kicked to the curb; thus, Agent Zero is this week’s Mystery Man. In standard sized, non-keeper, head-to-head leagues Arenas can probably be safely dropped at this point. In roto leagues, where it is easier to carry dead weight, it probably makes sense to stick it out with Gil for a bit until we have more concrete timelines. In deeper formats, it makes more sense to hang on to Gibert if your team can afford to maintain a dead roster spot. Finally, in keeper and dynasty formats, dropping Arenas is not recommended until we hear exactly how harsh his final punsihment will be. Gilbert’s future with the Wizards and the League is truly a mystery at this point so weigh your options carefully before you decide to part ways with this dynamic guard.

Did we really have to learn it’s not cool pulling a gun on a teammate in the locker room?  I’m looking at you Gilbert Arenas!  There are rumors flying around that he’s going to miss serious time as it could be measured in months.  Consequently, it’s no surprise this week’s mystery man has to be Randy Foye.  He’s been a starter in the past so I’d assume Flip would be encouraged to go with him over any of Washington’s other point guards.

Week Eleven Schedules

Four Games: ATL, CHI, LAL, MEM, MIA, NJN, NOH, ORL, POR, UTA, WAS

Three Games:  BOS, CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, MIL, MIN, OKC, PHI, PHO, SAC, SAS, TOR

Two Games:  NYK

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 16%) – Matt’s stock has recently gone up since he was moved into the starting lineup.  Stan Van Gundy has been singing his praises too so expect him to stick in place of Mickael Pietrus.  In his 3 recent starts, he’s averaged 16.7 points, 1.7 3ptm, 7 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.3 TO’s.  He’ll also contribute the occasional defensive numbers.

Omri Casspi (SG/SF/PF – 33%) – Casper has just been on a tear lately so I’m shocked he’s not more universally owned.  In the last 13 games, he’s averaged a very cool 16.2 points, 1.8 3ptm, 5,8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, .6 steals and .4 blocks.  With over 32 minutes a game, he’s also been very efficient shooting 48% from the field and 77.4% from the charity stripe with only 1.4 turnovers.  I don’t see a return of Kevin Martin ending his value either as Westy is likely to move him over to SF.

Nick Collison (PF/C – 5%) – If you don’t mind anti-glamor types, give Nick a look.  Since returning from injury, his minutes have been steadily trending upwards and it appears Scott Brooks is most comfortable with him over both Nenad Krstic and Serge Ibaka.  In the last 5 games, he’s averaged 9.4 points (on 70.8 FG% and 68.4 FT%), 7 rebounds and 1 block.

Luther Head (PG/SG – 9%) – Here we go recommending another Pacer again but you gotta figure we’re due to get one right!  Actually, there is a good chance he’ll revert back into some sort of inconsistent mess considering his track record, but why not ride him now?  He’s easily been the most productive wing player for O’Brien so look for him to continue to get minutes.  The last 3 games as a starter he’s averaged 23 points, 2.3 3ptm, 4.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 steals.

Juwan Howard (SF/PF/C – 10%) – Here is what I like to call a “process of elimination” player.  Simply put, the Blazers best big man is this 36 year old who was drafted by the Washington Bullets.  The last 6 games, Juwan has averaged 9 points (on 57.4 FG%), 7.8 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 1.8 TO’s.  Considering LaMarcus Aldridge is hobbled with an ankle sprain, Howard is well worth a spin during this upcoming 4 game week.

CUT LIST

Mario Chalmers (PG – 49%) – Sadly, it’s about time for owners to let Mario go as one of my favorite preseason targets has been an enormous letdown.  Most likely, his fate is about to be sealed as Miami is probably going to guarantee Carlos Arroyo’s contract for the rest of the season.  When that happens, Mario’s role as a reserve (6.3 points, .4 3ptm, 1.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists) looks to be close to permanent.

TJ Ford (PG – 43%) – Seems like Ford has finally hit rock bottom as he’s recently been demoted to 3rd string point guard for the lowly Indiana Pacers.  What’s worse is he claims in the linked article that he didn’t get an explanation for being removed from the rotation.  Uh, TJ, quit playing dumb.

Peja Stojakovic (SG/SF – 67%) – Since Christmas, Peja has fallen off a cliff (averaging under 5 points a game, 1 three, 3 rebounds and 1 assist in 4 games).  In addition to the obvious slump, his back has started to act up on him again.  Considering, he’s had chronic problems the last few years, don’t hold your breath he’ll be right as rain after a few days of rest.

WATCH LIST

DeJuan Blair (SF/PF/C – 14%) – Blair’s adjustment as a starter hasn’t gone as smoothly as most of us had hoped as his minutes and numbers have been up and down since being handed this juicy role back on December 21.  His uninspiring averages of 7.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, .6 steals and .7 blocks over that period have resulted in Theo Ratliff getting the start in Sunday’s game against Toronto.  However, it’s hard to throw in the towel on a kid who usually doesn’t need much time to put a fantasy worthy line.

Andray Blatche (PF/C – 33%) – “Seven Day Dray” started the season off with a bang thanks to an Antawn Jamison shoulder injury.  However, as expected, he faded back into obscurity when he became a role player again.  With the Wizards lackluster play, Flip gave Blatche a start in their last game against the Spurs.  Coach is looking for an increase in paint production, but we all know Dray loves to shoot too many jumpers.  If he does heed Flip’s wishes, he could be worth owning again.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 15%) – Managers looking for an interim boost in scoring should look Rasual’s way.  Over the last ten games, he’s averaged 14.5 points, 2.4 3ptm, 3.2 rebounds and 1 block on excellent shooting (48.7 FG% and 91.7 FT%).  More importantly, he has replaced Al Thornton as the team’s starting small forward.  Just remember to temper your expectations as Butler likes to disappear and Blake Griffin’s return is getting nearer.

Quentin Richardson (SG/SF – 18%) – Q has got to be this season’s Jekyll/Mr. Hyde winner.  Case in point, just glance at the boxscore of his last two games.  Against the Spurs, 0 points and 3 rebounds.  Against the Bobcats, 20 points (6 3ptm) and 5 rebounds.  I literally prefer to just watch Qrich, but he could be worth a look for a team either feeling lucky or in dire need of 3ptm.

STAY THE COURSE

Courtney Lee (SG/SF – 50%) – Mr. Lee’s averages have been quite pedestrian thus far this season:  11.5 points, .6 3ptm, 3.7 rebounds and 1.9 assists.  Lately, his numbers have shown a bit of a decline which is most likely due to the fact that Yi Jianlian and Chris Douglas-Roberts are back playing big minutes to go alongside Devin Harris and Brook Lopez.  Despite this, I still recommend you hang onto him.  That perimeter shooting is bound to improve as he’s always been considered an excellent shot.  Moreover, he provides a significant amount of steals (1.7) to go along with very low turnvoers (1.1).

Charlie Villanueva (SF/PF – 84%) – Without a doubt, there is cause for alarm as his recent 6 game averages are woeful:  4.7 points, .3 3ptm, 3.5 rebounds and .5 blocks.  As the roster is finally getting healthy around him, Kuester’s manlove for Jonas Jerebko and his plantar fasciitis are all attempting to stand in his way of solid production.  However, things will turn around as he sat down with the Coach and figured out what he needed to do.  The outcome?  He played 28 minutes in the Piston’s last game against the Bulls while Jerebko 19.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Glen Davis (PF/C – 4%) – With Kevin Garnett out for a minimum of 10 days, the Celtic’s need Big Baby.  Rasheed Wallace isn’t accustomed to playing huge starter’s minutes and Kendrick Perkins usually struggles with foul trouble.  Expect at least a few games of solid points, boards and steals in the near future.

Wayne Ellington (PG/SG – 1%) – Are we ready to proclaim it Wayne’s World?  No, but his role is undeniably increasing in Minnesota as evidenced by the uptick in his minutes recently.  Considering how the team is in need of a solid perimeter threat, Coach Rambis must be excited this rookie is finally putting things together.  If you’re in a deep league and would like to bump up the scoring categories, give him a try.  He set a new season high of 16 points and 3 3ptm in their last game.

MYSTERY MAN

Randy Foye (PG/SG – 31%) – As I mentioned earlier, Gilbert Arenas supposedly pulled the knucklehead move of the year by playing with a gun in the Wizard’s locker room.  Consequently, stiff penalties await and he could leave a mammoth hole for a lengthy period of time.  Enter Randy.  Even though Flip has shown a preference to Earl Boykins certain games, it is highly unlikely the 5 foot 5 inch guard could handle the starting duties.  Meanwhile Randy has played huge minutes at the point in Minnesota providing solid points, 3ptm, assists and steals.  Be ready to pounce if any new developments regarding any suspensions crop up.

This season was supposed to be one that marked the return of the Washington Wizards into the thick of the playoff picture.  Flip Saunders was to be the answer to their coaching problems bringing a veteran presence with a solid postseason record.  For the first time in three years, Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison were going to get to play the majority of the season and prove why management was right to wait for the Big 3.  Unfortunately, two months into the season, it is once again on  the verge of being lost.

The Wizards are currently 10-21, the cellar in the Southeast Division.  They are below average both defensively (20th) and offensively (22nd).  2 of their 3 main cogs, Butler (42.7 FG%, 29.3 3FG%) and Arenas (41.1 FG% and 3.8 TO’s, are obviously having terribly inefficient seasons.  Moreover, these two had an apparent rift come to light in November where Gilbert called out Caron.

However, that has become a distant memory as much more has since transpired.  First, with the Wizards posting a losing record in the month of December of 5-9, Flip Saunders finally openly criticized the Wizard’s play this past Tuesday:

After 30 games, Saunders unloaded on his team like never before, with the most scathing criticism of his players all season. It was arguably the most scathing criticism I’ve ever heard a coach give his team — in person. Saunders kept his cool and never raised his voice, so it does not rank up there with some infamous meltdowns by NFL coaches Jim Mora (Playoffs?! & Couldn’t do diddly-poo), Mike Ditka (Next!) or Dennis Green (They are who we thought they were!). But this was the first time I ever heard a coach tell a room full of reporters that he could put five of them on the floor against his team and have success. It was the first time I heard coach say that, at age 54, he could take any player on his team one-on-one.

Source – Wizards Insider:  Michael Lee

Second, and more importantly, Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton were discovered to be a part of a dispute over the holidays that involved the use of handguns.  Specifically, the incident occurred in the locker room of the Verizon center!  While it is unclear at this time the penalties that will be incurred, undoubtedly something will happen.

Regardless of the details, though, Arenas could be in a world of trouble — with the District and Federal governments, with the league and with the Wizards — with the possibility, remote for now but still there, that the team could ultimately seek to void the remainder of his $111 million contract, signed in 2008.

Source:  David Aldridge

Do you know what makes this more painful to loyal Wizards fans?  The fact it’s a complete slap in the face by their superstar to the once proud owner, Abe Pollin.  Management patiently stood by him during his difficult rehabilitation as evidenced by a completely undeserved new contract.  Then this year, after a lot of substandard play, Agent Zero brought a ton of shame to an organization that changed their nickname in 1995 because of gun violence.

Abe Pollin decided months ago that it was wrong to call his Washington basketball team the Bullets. He pushed up the announcement the other day after flying back from the funeral of a friend, a hero, who had been killed by bullets.

I stood in the spot when Rabin was killed,” Pollin said the other day.

Yitzhak Rabin, the Prime Minister of Israel, was assassinated a week ago Saturday in Tel Aviv. His life was no more precious than the lives of children killed by flying bullets as they cower in apartments in the District of Columbia, or teen-agers gunned down in the heat of an argument. Yitzhak Rabin’s death reinforced Abe Pollin’s belief that something must be done about the nickname.

Source:  New York Times

Guess what – it gets even better:

Arenas was suspended for Washington’s season opener in 2004 because he failed to maintain proper registration of a handgun while living in California in 2003. Arenas formerly played for the Golden State Warriors.

Source:  Huffington Post

Wow, so he was aware of the responsibility of gun ownership, Abe’s take and resulting NBA suspensions yet he thought that his locker was the best place for his guns?  You mean to tell me he couldn’t trouble any one of his countless friends to hang onto them for awhile?  Better yet, if you don’t need them anymore – go sell them, give them away or at least drop them off at the police station!

To no one’s surprise, it appears the Wizard’s organization wants to be done with the embattled guard.  Supposedly the team has inquired about whether other teams are interested in his services.   Most notably, Washington was even willing to trade him for cap relief – Tracy McGrady.  However, according to David Aldridge, “the new investigation also has put any notion of trade talks between Washington, which is resigned to performing radical surgery on its roster and is now willing to trade anyone — including Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison — and other teams on hold indefinitely.”

Since the Wizards are in a holding pattern, what should you be contemplating as a fantasy owner?

Ultimately, it appears licensed-to-ill Agent Zero is going to miss games at some point.  It is anyone’s guess at this time as to when or how many, but expect the worst.  Besides the tough stance by the District of Columbia, the NBA expressed their sentiments in the past which resulted in an amendment to the 2006 Collective Bargaining Agreement banning firearms in a number of places.  David Stern was particularly adamant about his thoughts on guns:

Before the 2006-07 season, David Stern called the trend of pro athletes carrying weapons to defend themselves “an alarming subject” and went on record as saying that if it were not part of the collective bargaining agreement, he wouldn’t allow players to carry guns, short of “being able to have a firearm to protect your home. Period.”

Source:  New York Daily News

Consequently, even if Arenas manages to evade legal prosecution, I expect at a minimum, a hefty fine and suspension.  However, the NBA and the Wizards organizations have stated they will reserve judgement until the authorities have concluded their investigations and/or a court of law has had its say.  Thus, Gilbert will continue to play.  For those unlucky few who drafted him, look for an opportunity to try to trade him after a nice stretch of a few games.  This is really applicable to keeper leagues as the short end of the stick could occur next season.  Definitely avoid buying low on him as something like this will hang over his and the team’s head until it’s resolved.  With the pathetic start the Wizards have gotten off to, it’ll be magnified.

With Yao Ming officially down and out for the 2009-10 NBA season, fantasy managers in keeper and dynasty formats all have an interesting dilemma. Similar dilemmas play out each season, with recent examples being Elton Brand in 2007-08 and Gilbert Arenas in 2008-09. Dealing with injuries is one of the keys to fantasy success and is more complicated in dynasty and keeper formats.

In laying out the basics of keeper and dynasty strategy, the main thing to remember is that the fundamental goal every season is to win a championship. Anything less than a gold trophy can be considered a failure; there is no prize for rebuilding. However, winning the ultimate prize is easier said than done, especially when you lose one of your top players, such as Yao, for the entire season.

As always, league settings play a large role in how to handle the Ming Dilemma. Each individual situation is different and there is no one-size-fits-all approach to handling Yao Ming this season. The reason Yao Ming is such an interesting case study is because he is a bona fide first round talent in virtually every format when healthy. This makes the decision of whether to cut your losses and move on much more difficult.

Let’s take at some of the possible scenarios and examine the different methods of dealing with the Ming Dilemma.

Already Own Yao Ming

The greatest dilemma falls on the owners who already have Yao on their rosters as a keeper. In dynasty league formats, you have no choice but to hang on to Yao Ming and waste a roster spot carrying him all season. In dynasty formats, most managers have dead weight at the end of their rosters. Dynasty formats allow managers to carry project players for long periods of times as the players develop and improve.

In keeper leagues, the dilemma is more pronounced and is greatly affected by individual league settings and team makeup. In general, the more keepers a league allows, the more it makes sense to hang on to Yao. Extremely deep keeper leagues (10+ teams) are more akin to dynasty leagues than to shallow keeper leagues, which are strategically closer to redraft leagues.

Stacked teams are less likely to be forced into keeping Yao Ming or another injured superstar. These teams can sacrifice some long-term value for a worse player who will provide an immediate positive impact. At risk of sounding like a broken record, the point in any league is to win this season. Thus, if you have other viable keeper options, do not hesitate to get rid of Ming or another injured superstar.

One important caveat to note. For any league with an injured-reserve spot (or multiple IR spots), it almost universally makes sense to hang on to Yao Ming or another injured superstar. In these formats, Yao’s dead weight can be carried for most of the season without affecting your ability to compete for a title.

Yao is on the Waiver Wire

In some keeper leagues, Yao has already ended up on the waiver wire. Maybe he wasn’t drafted at all, or maybe he was jettisoned in favor of a guy who has played at a high level during the preseason. However he ended up there, inevitably managers start to wonder whether it makes sense to pick him up because it is a keeper league.

In most cases, it does not make sense to pickup Yao Ming if he is currently on the waiver wire. At this juncture in the season, your number one all-consuming goal should be winning the another trophy for your trophy case. Ming’s dead weight is a serious drag and greatly hinders this goal. In order to win, you need every advantage you can get.

I would recommend picking up Yao off the waiver wires in only two scenarios this season. The first is extremely positive medical news featuring a much quicker recovery timeline than expected. To take advantage of this, keep a close eye on any medical reports out of Houston and be prepared to act on a moment’s notice.

The second scenario occurs when your team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Once this occurs, it makes complete sense to drop no-upside players, such as Antonio McDyess, in order to make room for Yao. In keeper and dynasty leagues, the season is not over when you are eliminated from the playoffs. Instead, managers are greatly rewarded for picking up possible breakout candidates for next season and rostering them for the offseason. Then, you can monitor offseason developments and have more flexibility to make deals at the keeper deadline. A good example of this is owners who picked up Anthony Randolph at the end of last season for his scorching finish. Those managers were rewarded with a keeper quality player in leagues of five or more keepers.

Trade for Yao?

Similar to the situation in which Yao Ming is on the waiver wire, it can make sense to trade for Yao Ming. When mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, it is open season on lowball offers for injured studs. If the managers that owns an injured studs is competing for a trophy, they will most likely trade an injured stud for a much worse player in order to get production that can help them win now. In this case, a trade is mutually beneficial for both teams as one team improves in the short term and one team improves  in the long term.

Conclusion

From much injury experience, I can attest that it is very, very difficult to carry dead weight for an entire season and still win a championship. Thus, the Ming Dilemma is a serious one that will have serious ramifications on your team’s success in the short and long term. Keep Yao only when it makes sense to do so. These strategies don’t only apply to Yao Ming — they also work with any injured superstar.

Regardless of league type or scoring settings, one should always consider the relative risk factors associated with drafting a player who is considered injury prone. You have to consider the type of production you can expect relative to what round he is being drafted in. If the player is heavily injury prone you may not get full value out of your pick.

A great example from last season would be Amare Stoudemire. He was universally considered a top four pick last season and was drafted as such. After missing 29 games due to a retina injury, he failed to produce value even close to a first round pick, let alone top five value. If a top pick goes down due to injury, even the most savvy fantasy manager can find themselves in a predicament.

In order to ease some of the confusion and turmoil associated with draft day, consider some of the league’s most injury prone players. Guys you might want to think twice about before drafting. Not to say that they are bad players, but they can’t help your team sitting on the bench in street clothes (I’m looking at you Mr. Arenas and your fancy ascot).

Now the criteria to determine who is an “injury risk” and who is not is no clear-cut science. It is not as simple as saying that if you missed x number of games the last season(s) then you automatically go on to a list. Conversely, we also are not saying that just because you have only missed a few games doesn’t mean that you are not an injury risk.

There is simply no substitute for doing your own research and reading up on players yourself.

Instead of looking at many of the more well-known injury-prone players such as Gilbert Arenas, Carlos Boozer, Caron Butler, Manu Ginobili, Andrew Bynum, Kevin Garnett, Dwayne Wade, etc. This list is reserved for some of the less obvious players who still have the unique ability to either lead a team to victory or tear down a fantasy franchise if injured.

The first player on our list is not only the highest ranked player but probably one of the more well-known injury prone players that we will comment on. This spot is reserved for Indiana Pacer Danny Granger. Going into his fifth NBA season Granger has established himself as one of the best go-to-guys in the league.

As the Pacer’s number one option, he holds plenty of fantasy value and will be a top ten fantasy pick this year in virtually every format. He can score from the inside or beyond the three point line. He has size, athleticism, passing ability, and is only 26 years old. Most importantly he has incredible heart and hustle.

He has increased his scoring average output by five points in three consecutive seasons (the first player in NBA history to do so) and was an All-Star last season. With 2008-09 season averages of 25.8 points on .447/.878 percent shooting, 5.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists,1.o steals, 1.5 blocks and 2.5 turnovers per game it is easy to see why he is such a hot fantasy commodity.

Another aspect of Danny’s game that has also increased incrementally each season since his rookie year is his minutes per game. His rookie year Granger averaged over 22 MPG and during the past two seasons he has averaged over 36 MPG. This is a substantial amount of minutes for any NBA player to average over the course of an 82 game season.

Granger has a history of ailments dating back to his college days. His junior year at the University of New Mexico he had surgery on his shoulder. He had arthroscopic knee surgery on his left knee as a senior, which caused him to miss a few games.  Last year Granger missed 15 games including a stretch in February and March where he missed eleven straight games. This comes after only missing a total of six games in his first three seasons combined.

What caused him to miss the eleven straight games was a tendon tear he sustained in his right foot. As a result, he was constantly hampered by soreness in his right knee during the second half of last season. With at least 36 minutes per game coming to him again this season, be sure to monitor Granger’s health routinely.

Don’t not avoid Danny on draft day because of his injury history because he will more than likely be fantasy gold next season. Just realize that you are most likely drafting a few DNP’s throughout the season if you go with Granger in the first round. This is one of the main reasons it makes sense to draft Kevin Durant ahead of Granger in most formats.

The second player on the injury docket is Brazil’s own Nene. Now Nene is the true definition of an injury risk and has only been able to complete 80 or more games once in his seven year career (his rookie season in 2002-03). Going into his eighth season, Nene has managed to miss a staggering 204 games, or an average of just over 29 games missed per season.

Last year he played in 77 games and had his greatest fantasy year by far (and a career year in real life) after averaging 14.6 points per game on .604/.723 percent shooting, 7.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.3 blocks and 1.9 turnovers per game. This stat line probably represents Nene at, or very near, his fantasy ceiling. With well-rounded production like that it is easy to see the value in drafting Nene in the early middle rounds of drafts.

But be careful; his injury istory is no laughing matter and is not overstated. In 2004-05, Nene missed 23 games due to injury (he suspended for four games). Damage to his left knee’s MCL caused him to be out thirteen games. Then he was out ten games due to a right hip contusion and a strained left hamstring.

On opening night in 2005-06, he tore his ACL three minutes into the season and went on to miss the entire rest of the season. In 2006 he missed 18 games, 16 of which were directly related to inflammation from a right knee contusion.

And to keep the injury streak alive and strong, in 2007-08, he managed to play in just 16 games. This time a combination of testicular cancer  (he is more than just injury prone), a right groin strain and a torn ulner collateral ligament  in his left thumb. These ailments kept Nene out of action for a combined 66 games.

These are major injuries and illnesses that should not be taken lightly. Just keep all of this in mind when reviewing Nene’s statistics from last season. Nene needs to stay healthy in order to justify this years average draft position, which is 51 according to Busersports, making him an early fifth round selection.

In the end, no one can predict which players will miss a significant amount of time next season. There are always freak injuries that simply cannot be predicted (see Francisco Garcia’s recent weightlifting accident). Just make sure that if you are drafting a player with a significant injury history you know exactly what you selecting (and how many games you are likely to miss out on).

Quick question – when you think of Tracy McGrady what comes to mind?  A supremely talented basketball player?  An All-Star destined to never meet lofty expectations?  Or perhaps the posterchild for the most injury prone active athlete?

Well Tim Grover of Attack Athletics (the guy who fixed Dwyane Wade and is trying to do the same for a number of other players this year) undertook the difficult task of changing that perception almost three months ago and by all accounts, Tracy’s rehab was going well.  So well in fact that T-Mac was suddenly on pace to be ready for the start of this upcoming season.   Then, less than one week ago, the talk hope of possibly being ready to go for the start of training camp soured.

Rockets guard Tracy McGrady will not be cleared to practice with the team Tuesday when training camp begins, officials said Monday. McGrady will continue his rehabilitation from microfracture surgery on his knee through Nov. 23 when he will undergo an additional MRI examination to determine whether he can begin practicing.

Source:  The Houston Chronicle

Even though Tracy stated to Sports Illustrated, “Confidence-wise, running, cutting, jumping — I have that right now,” he claims there is no reason to rush things.  Wait, on the one hand, you’re telling us you have all the abilities you need on the court, but you’re not ready?  Excuse me, but that doesn’t make sense.

So what happened?  Did Grover *dare I say* fail T-Mac?

I don’t think so.

The problem unfortunately appears to be the effects of the microfracture surgery.  While it isn’t a very invasive surgery, recovery times vary greatly.  Usually, for a return to sports, the window is 6-to-9 months.  According to the aforementioned SI article, Tracy stated he was only 7 months removed from surgery.  He also stated that he’s still technically ahead of schedule but that his doctors said it could take a year.  Consequently, Knee-Mac never set a true return date.

Rather, it seems like the whole world latched onto the optimism of physical therapist David Reavy.  Tracy’s recovery was going so well that Reavy was buzzing with a little too much optimism in making such a bold statement.  Unfortunately, many of us (whether its the fantasy basketball crowd or the Rockets faithful) latch onto stuff like this like a moth to a flame.

So really there was no actual setback.  Just a few too many jumping the gun.

In reality, there should still be plenty of hope that Tracy’s return will be successful at some point this season.  First, there is no denying McGrady has made faster than anticpated progress thus far during rehab.

“[Tracy] took a hard fall seven years ago in 2002 and he said he was never able to dunk off his left leg [since]. We got him dunking off his left leg four and a half months post micro-fracture, which is basically unheard of,” Reavy says. “The results that we get here are basically unprecedented because we take the force off the injured area, we make the body absorb the force equally, so that it can heal properly and faster without the loading that it’s constantly getting before.

Source:  ESPN Chicago

Second, TMAC’s actual surgery revealed it was not nearly as risky as others.  Dr. Tom Clanton, Houston’s team doctor, stated: “the joint damage is in a “favorable location,” not near a weight-bearing area, and that McGrady’s knee is otherwise healthy.”

Third, Tracy and the doctors are being much more careful to avoid a relapse like last year.  Tracy has spent almost the entire post-surgery time (not just the few months with Grover) in Chicago doing all the right things.  Namely resting then rehabbing under close supervision.  Consequently, it appears Tim Grover is off the hook — at least temporarily.

On the other hand, the two players we all need to be watching in initially judging Grover’s effectiveness should be either Gilbert Arenas or Jermaine O’Neal.  Both of them are more than a year removed from surgery and both tried to rehab/comeback under different guidance.  Much to his dismay (as we all heard by now), Gilbert followed the direction of the Wizards’ team doctors.  Meanwhile, Jermaine rehabbed with a different trainer, Joe Abunassar, a summer ago.

It will be interesting to watch how well Grover’s clients perform. Currently, he’s on a pedestal thanks to the phenomenal season Wade turned in last year.  If most of his guys make it through this year, either healthy for the most part or exhibit explosiveness only seen prior to injury, we might have to put that pedestal atop Mount Everest.

With Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball up and running early this season, there is plenty of time to examine the data and prepare for drafts and the upcoming season. One important aspect to consider before drafting and assembling the perfect fantasy squad is position eligibility.

Each season is different and each season certain guys gain extra eligibility at a position you normally wouldn’t expect. Likewise, there are players that for some reason or another are missing a position eligibility they had last season or that they should have. Each fantasy sports provider has its own quirks and nuances and uses different criteria to make their position eligibility judgments. Make sure and examine your own provides list carefully.

Or, if you use Yahoo!, just continue reading. Your welcome.

Before getting into the nuts and bolts, take a step back and do some cursory research. Find out what the criteria are used to determine and assign position eligibility for your specific provider. The criteria will be laid out somewhere on their website. Or again, just continue reading.

Initial position eligibility for each player was determined based on past participation and information supplied by NBA teams during the off-season.

Players are eligible at one or more positions during the current Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Basketball season depending upon their real-life participation.

All position eligibility requests are reviewed by Yahoo! Sports and confirmed with our NBA sources. Due to the nature of the review process, we’re unable to comment on each individual player request.

Source: Yahoo!

So the eligibility is somewhat based upon real life and is subject to Yahoo!’s discretion. The Yahoo! Help page also lays out how position eligibility can be added throughout the regular season. This is also important to note because the eligibility is supposed to mirror real life to a certain degree. So when you see position changes in real life, Yahoo! is supposed to mimic that change as well.

Updates are made during the regular season based on changes to the lineups and official team rosters. Players don’t lose position eligibility when moving from one real-life position to another. So, if a forward starts to play regular shifts as a center, he’s eligible for the remainder of the season as a forward and a center.

New positions are added when it’s confirmed that a player’s primary position has changed and that the change is not expected to be a temporary one.

When a player has earned eligibility at a new position, it will be displayed wherever player positions are shown.

The key to Yahoo!’s in-season updates is that new position eligibility is to be assigned based upon permanent changes to a player’s primary position. With that in mind, don’t get too bogged down in the details. Just something to keep in  my mind as you review the position eligibility list. I definitely recommend perusing the list for yourself as different changes will stand out to different managers.

I reviewed the top 250 players (according to Yahoo!’s O-Rank) examining only their position eligibility. I compared their assigned eligibility to a combination of last season’s eligibility and my expected position eligibility for each player. Not exactly hard science. Then, each player was classified into groups.

Here are the results.

The Rookies

This season’s first pick overall, Blake Griffin (SF/PF), also provided the first eligibility surprise for rookies: small forward status. Griffin seemed a lock to gain power forward status but also could have been though of as a longshot for center eligibility if the Clippers decided to play small ball.  Small forward status is just icing on the cake as he is not pigeon-holed into the “PF only” category.

The next group of rookies contains players that obtained eligibility at both guard positions. This group includes Johnny Flynn (PG/SG); Stephen Curry (PG/SG); Tyreke Evans (PG/SG); and James Harden (PG/SG). Some of these are more surprising than others. In particular Flynn and Harden are both surprising but for different reasons; Flynn surprisingly gained shooting guard eligibility and Harden gained point guard eligibility.

The next two players’ eligibility was very surprising indeed. Both DeMar DeRozan (SG/SF/PF) and Terrence Williams (SG/SF/PF) were given eligibility at shooting guard and both forward positions. This means these two guys can be played at shooting guard, guard, small forward, power forward, forward or utility. Now that is versatility.

Other notables: Jordan Hill (SF/PF) and David Andersen (SF/PF).

Single Position Only

Of all the fantasy stars out there, no one gets overlooked and undervalued more often than Dirk Nowitzki (PF). That is scientific fact although no scientific studies were actually undertaken. Normally, it wouldn’t be surprising that Dirk only obtained power forward eligibility with his well-known preference to play the four and not the five. However, with Shawn Marion (SF/PF) on board, there is widespread speculation that Marion might spend some quality time at the four with Dirk at the five. Stay tuned and keep an eye out for added center eligibility for Nowitzki.

In an about face, the next guy is one guy people can’t stop talking about and overvaluing. As of now, Gilbert Arenas (PG) is slated to be have point guard eligibility only. While not entirely unexpected, it is important to note that and not rely on Agent Zero having dual guard eligibility.  In fact, it is probably a good idea not to rely on Arenas for anything.

Everyone’s hottest sleeper of the summer, Anthony Randolph (PF), has been given only eligibility at the four. This is surprising because of Randolph’s real life versatility. It is compounded by the fact that Anthony plays for Coach Don Nelson, who is known for his unconventional lineups and could potentially play three (or more) positions. For a system, that is supposed to mimic real life, Randolph having power forward eligibility only is certainly an airball on Yahoo!’s part.

Other notables: Kevin Garnett (PF); O.J. Mayo (SG); Trevor Ariza (SF); Shane Battier (SF) Kenyon Martin (PF); Yi Jianlian (PF); Keyon Dooling (PG); and Jose Juan Barea (PG).

Bonus Time!

Every season, there are a certain number of players that maintain eligibility for a certain position when the probably shouldn’t (bonus!). That is a great thing, because the more flexible your squad is the greater your chances of building a championship caliber squad are. This season, Kevin Durant (SG/SF) has maintained his shooting guard eligibility even though he has played almost totally at the three since Coach P.J. Carlesimo was fired early last season after a rocky start. The switch also coincides with the Durantula’s ascent to fantasy god status.

Similarly, Memphis’ Rudy Gay (SF/PF) plays almost exclusively at the three so the power forward eligibility can be viewed as an added bonus. With new addition and black hole Zach Randolph around, Gay will most likely spend even less time at the four next season (Darrell Arthur should also be picking up scrap minutes behind Z-Bo).

Other notables: Emeka Okafor (PF/C); Udonis Haslem (PF/C); and Darrell Arthur (PF/C).

Big Men with Small Forward Eligibility

This season, there is a group of big men that received small forward eligibility. For some, like Utah’s Paul Millsap (SF/PF), it comes as a surprise. If anything, Millsap should have eligibility at power forward and center, not small forward. But you can only hope that Yahoo! fixes that during the season, which would make Millsap extremely versatile with SF/PF/C eligibility.

Other notables: Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF); Jason Thompson (SF/PF) and Brandon Bass (SF/PF).

Point Guards with Shooting Guard Eligibility

The final group of players is guys who have eligibility at both guard positions. Most of these guys should come as now surprise, including the newest Timberwolf, Ramon Sessions (PG/SG). He should see some run at the two guard alongside rookie lotter selection Johnny Flynn. The real mystery is how Flynn walked away with eligibility at both guard positions but it’s usually a good idea to never question a good thing.

Other notables: Allen Iverson (PG/SG); Rodney Stuckey (PG/SG); Lou Williams (PG/SG); D.J. Augustin (PG/SG); and Rudy Fernandez (PG/SG).

A roundup like this is a useful reference but cannot subsitute for actually sitting down and reviewing the position eligibility list yourself. Take careful note of where eligibility assignments differ from your own opinion of position eligibility and keep these issues in mind when drafting.

The next step in breaking down the pre-draft data is scouring the Yahoo! O-Ranks and average draft position lists to see which players are being overvalued, undervalued and slept on.

With the upcoming NBA season still a few months away, it’s time to take an early look at the fantasy prospects for a team that threatens to be very relevant: the Washington Wizards. Last season was a forgettable one for the Wizards (to say the least).

Washington finished the season with an embarrassing 19-63 record, making them the second worst team in the league behind Sacramento’s lowly mark of 17-65. They began last season with a record of 1 and 10, which prompted the firing of then head coach Eddie Jordan. The team never managed to recover from the rough start, finishing out the year with a string of insipid performances.

Sure, they had a rough go of it last year, injuries caused their best player, Gilbert Arenas, to miss all but two games (he did average 13 and 10 though, technically speaking). Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood both missed a significant amount of games as well. Outside of DC, it is rarely mentioned what an impact Haywood has for the Wizards, both on and off the court.

That being said, it is a new season for the Wizards and their outlook is significantly better for 2009-10.

The Wizards were one of the most active teams this off-season. They began their roster tune-up with a pre-draft trade with Minnesota, sending Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, Oleksiy Pecherov and the 5th overall selection in the 2009 draft, in exchange for guard/forward Mike Miller and guard Randy Foye. This was a big time move by the Wizards aimed at vaulting them back to contender status in the East.

The Bullets Wizards have entered the arms race in the Eastern Conference.

They traded spare parts (and a rotation player in Songaila) and their lottery pick, which turned out to be Ricky Rubio, to bring in a few veterans to help right away. The move should definitely improve their win total significantly next season while helping take some of the offensive load off the oft-injured and aging core of: Arenas, Butler and Antawn Jamison.

With a new-and-improved squad heading into next season, the Wizards should provide a variety of quality fantasy options for managers to tap. The key is to correctly identify which Wiz will be in the rotation, as Coach Saunders has made it known that his rotation only consists of eight players.

Take a look at the Wizards roster:

PG: Gilbert Arenas, Javaris Crittenton, Mike James
SG: Randy Foye, Nick Young, DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Caron Butler, Mike Miller, Dominic McGuire
PF: Antawn Jamison, Andray Blatche
C: Brendan Haywood, JaVale McGee, Francisco Oberto

The 2009-10 team is very guard heavy. Six of their fourteen players currently under contract are pure guards. Arenas is the starting point guard and is a lock to receive steady minutes, at least 35 per game, as long as he is healthy. He is obviously a great fantasy player when not being hindered by his surgically repaired knee (first round ceiling if healthy). Expect Gilbert to have a bounce back year this coming season after basically missing out on the previous two seasons due to injury.

This guy is a competitor and he wants to win, especially when LeBron James‘ Cavs are in town. Plus, he’s been working out with Tim Grover, who has helped guys like Dwayne Wade recover from injury. Hopefully he will be the guy who could drain threes from anywhere on the court and blow by a defender with ease.

If he is completely healthy I would expect Arenas to provide healthy numbers for his owners somewhere along the lines of 20.5 points per game on 43/80 percent shooting, 2.0 threes, 5.7 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 0.2 blocks and 3.0 turnovers.

The rest of the Wizard’s guards won’t hold as much value as Arenas, but some will still be fantasy relevant. Mike Miller (who can also play forward) should improve on the rather forgettable season last year. With plenty of other offensive options for defenses to worry about, Miller should get a good number of decent looks from the perimeter where he is not afraid to fire away.

Expect his three point percentage to rise from last year’s 37 percent mark back up to somewhere near his career average of 40 forty. Miller could average close to 12.0 points per game on 45/75 percent shooting, 2.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists with under a couple of turnovers.

Randy Foye should either start at shooting guard or be the first guard off the bench to backup Arenas. Foye had the best year of his career last year while playing big minutes for the woeful Timberwolves. Expect his production to be reduced this year as he will see fewer minutes in his reserve role. Although good in real life, depth is a fantasy killer as it means stiffer competition for the limited supply of minutes.

His ability to find playing time really rests upon the health of Arenas’ knee. If he is only getting around 20-25 minutes per night he may be worth a very late round selection in leagues of 12 teams or more. I expect Foye to have a much bigger impact on the Wizard’s win/loss column than he will in the fantasy world.

The other Wizard guards are most likely fantasy casualties of the recent trade and Arenas’ new-found health. Mike James and DeShawn Stevenson will see drastic minute reductions as well and should hold no fantasy value next season. Nick Young could see a major reduction from his 22.4 minutes he averaged last season, as his role was instant offfense off the bench.  He may not make it into Saunders’ eight man group next season. Beware.

Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison will continue to hold a lot of fantasy value next season. Jamison is pretty much a lock for 20/8 with a steal and close to two assists for good measure all on 45 percent shooting from the field and 35 percentfrom beyond the arc. He is getting older (he turned 33 this year) and one has to wonder when the drop-off in production will occur. However, the thing to remember is that Jamison is an old school gamer and competes night in and night out.

Butler’s fantasy relevance relies heavily on his health. He’s had an outstanding couple of fantasy seasons for the past few years now and should continue to do so as long as he can stay on the court. Caron missed fifteen games last year, 24 games in 2007-08 and 19 games in 2006-07. That is not exactly the “Cal Ripken Jr model of health” that the Wizards would hope for from one of the cornerstones of their franchise.

Butler has had the biggest work load placed on his shoulders the past two seasons as he attempted to carry the team’s offense in the wake of Arenas’ injuries. The heavy minutes combined with his penchant for taking contact really wore Butler down over the course of the season. The biggest knock on him the past few years was his absence during the final stretch of the fantasy season, when head-to-head owners needed him most.

If he stays healthy this year he will reward his fantasy owners handsomely, somewhere along the lines of 20.0 points per game on 46/85 percent shooting, 6.0 rebounds, 3.o assists, 1.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.7 turnover. He’ll also chip in a three pointer per game.

With all of the talent they now have in the Capitol, the Wizards will offer many servicable fantasy options, while undoubtedly improving on last season’s awful disappointing record.

For the guy who said that he is a moron if the Shaq trade doesn’t work (I’ll let you be the judge of this one), it must feel good to finally get something right. Steve Kerr’s treatment of Amar’e Stoudemire’s contract extension negotiations seems to be going much better than some of his other moves since being hired as General Manager of the Phoenix Suns.

“I think everything looks great, but before you make that kind of a financial commitment, or any commitment in this league, you have to know that your player is fine and ready to go,” Suns general manager Steve Kerr said on Tuesday. “I’m on the same page as Charlie [Grantham, Stoudemire's agent] and Amare. We need to see Amare on the court in October and see that everything’s going to be OK, which we fully expect. Before we make that kind of commitment, you’d better be sure.”

After a workout at U.S. Airways Center last week, Stoudemire said he believes he deserves a maximum extension.

Stoudemire can become a free agent after next season, but he has said he’d like to remain with the team that drafted him in the first round in 2002 — as long as the Suns are contenders. Phoenix missed the playoffs last season.

The Suns have fielded trade offers for Stoudemire this summer. But if they decide to keep him, they could sign him to an extension at any point next season.

Those talks could heat up if Stoudemire comes back strong from his surgery, as he has vowed to do.

“We need to see him play,” Kerr said. “Charlie knows that. Amare knows that. Obviously, the eye situation was more serious than what we first thought. The recovery time has taken longer.”

Source: ESPN

Whew!

It seems like the Suns have learned their lesson from the Gilbert Arenas saga in Washington. Remember, Arenas infamously inked a contract for six years and $111 million dollars in July 2008. In September of 2008, Arenas had ‘minor’ surgery and was surprised when there was a backlash at the announcement of his surgical procedure.

On crutches again, about to spend more time in physical therapy than he will in a gym, Gilbert Arenas actually doesn’t comprehend the fuss and worry.

“Why’s everybody tripping out?” he said from his cellphone yesterday, less than five hours after debris was removed from his surgically repaired left knee — the same knee that’s now been opened three times in 18 months.

“Big picture, if I start rehabbing now and get through the pain that prevented me from running or jumping this summer, I’ll be back on the court sooner,” he said. “How’s that a bad thing?”

Source: The Washington Post

The big deal was that the Wizards committed over a hundred million dollars and six years to Arenas and his bum knees. People were trippin’ because Arenas got paid over $14.5 million dollars in 2008-09 and he appeared in two games. That works out to a cool $7.25 million per game last season.

In waiting to see how Amar’e responds to the eye surgeries he has had before giving him a max deal, Kerr has ensured that the Suns don’t get Arenased (you heard it hear first folks) into paying a max contract to a player to rehab for a year.