Everyone ready for the home stretch? We’ve got 3 weeks left before most fantasy playoffs begin in Week 22. However, don’t view this as a time to coast as it could be more important than ever to pay attention to your teams. Whether you’re fighting to make the playoffs or simply looking to make those final tweaks to bring home a championship, the moves you make now could potentially decide your entire seasons. So FOCUS! 
Sorry for the delay guys, but there was a football game yesterday and it happened to include my favorite team – the New Orleans Saints. With their monumental win, there had to be an equally impressive celebration on my part. Laissez le bon temps rouler!
Coming into this NBA season, the New Jersey Net’s expectations were low. However, no one expected them to challenge ineptitude of historic proportions. The Nets recent loss to the Dallas Mavericks resulted in being associated with the distinct dishonor of the worst start by any franchise in NBA history. Worse than any expansion team or some historical bad franchise like the Clippers. Even though they’ve recently broken through with a win, will putting their worst leg(s) forward hurt the team beyond this season?
Just How Bad Have Things Been?
To put it bluntly, the Nets have been awful. They have the worst offensive rating (94.7), the worst points per game (87.60), the worst FG% (41.0) and the worst assists (16.25). Most of their losses haven’t even been close as their point differential stands a little over 10 points per game (only Minnesota is worse).
To be fair, at one point they only had one original starter available for a period of time. Devin Harris, Yi Jianlian, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Courtney Lee have all missed time for various aliments. One of these players, CDR, was the first NBA player infected with the swine flu. Prior to their first win against Charlotte, this foursome had missed 34 games out of a possible 72. Don’t forget that it takes time to get back into the swing of things such as chemistry and conditioning.
Can’t also discount they’ve had some key role players miss the majority of the season: Tony Battie, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes and Eduardo Najera. Without a solid bench, it’s no wonder this patchwork team has been tragic against the rest of the NBA. The New Jersey Nets probably wish they had as many healthy legs as their cheerleaders.
Did Management Stoke the Fire?
Coming into the season, the Nets had no established veterans – star or even borderline. Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter had all been traded away. However, a number of followers and writers proclaimed this was a good thing. New Jersey had some promising young talent including a potentially fantastic PG and C. More importantly, they would have about 25 million in available cap space for 2010. As you’re probably aware, there are some fantastic names that may be available in free agency including Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire.
There does lie a problem with this thinking – it’s a year away. For 2009, most experts predicted they’d finish at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Nothing new here as I’m sure most of us felt the same. With obvious turmoil looming, why then was Lawrence Frank fired?
I guess it’s Lawrence’s fault that they wanted to go young and [clear] cap space and that everybody got hurt,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said Sunday night, before his team beat another one that is dangerously walking the 2010 tightrope, the Knicks. “Maybe he was banging them up in practice, taking a baseball bat to them or something. I just know that with the lineups he’s had to put on the floor, I don’t think any coach would’ve done anything better than he’s done.”
Source: CBS Sports
Pretty hard to disagree with Stan’s assessment when considering the roster and all the injuries they’ve had to deal with thusfar. However, were there issues going on out of the public eye? Apparently, yes.
Sources said Nets management had come to believe that Frank had lost much of the team, a fact that has played out in losses to Denver and Sacramento in the past week. Once the Nets played so poorly against the Kings – believed to be the most winnable game on the trip – management decided it could no longer go on with Frank as coach.
Despite the return of point guard Devin Harris and shooting guard Courtney Lee, the Nets have played long stretches of uninspired basketball. “Most of the guys have tuned him out,” one source with direct knowledge of the locker room environment said. “This isn’t all Lawrence’s fault, but everyone knows that this can’t go on anymore.”
Source: Adrian Wojnarowski
Beat writers close to the Nets also observed that Frank and Devin Harris were not seeing eye to eye.
“In the times I’ve been here, I’ve been so (angry) because of a lack of effort,” Frank said last week. “But these guys are giving virtually everything they’ve got.”
But they didn’t give him the effort lately and he had to go. Now, the next coach will have to coax more team play out of Devin Harris, who had problems with Frank’s controlling style and has gained the reputation of being a solo act.
“Last year we had Vince Carter and he was a positive influence on the young guys,” said one team official. “But he’s not here, and it hurts because the coach and point guard are not on the same page.”
Source: Mitch Lawrence
Consequently, it’s not surprising the Nets let Frank go. At least, they fired him before they set the all-time record so that his name wouldn’t have to be associated with it.
Therefore, on the surface, it would seem they’ve made the correct moves. There is one thing still bothering me though. Did they consider the consequences if this team loses too many games?
Will a really bad record have long term effects?
We’ll examine two aspects to gauge possible long term affect:
1) How historically poor teams fare with rosters primarily consisting of talented youth in following years.
2) How many big time free agents signed with historically bad teams in following seasons.
1) First, we’ll examine how promising teams reacted to severely disappointing seasons. Specifically, we’ll look at the 1993-94 Dallas Mavericks, 1999-00 Chicago Bulls and the 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers. These teams were chosen because they were all in the midst of serious rebuilding with promising youth with a significant stretch of poor play.
The 1993-94 Mavericks team finished with a 13-69 record, but they were best known for posting a 2-39 record (OUCH) through the midpoint of the season. The team wasn’t completely devoid of talent as they had two promising but young 19 point scorers in Jim Jackson and Jamal Mashburn. So how dire did it get?
You hear about it and read about it, but words cannot really describe the hopelessness down here. At one point last night, the Dallas Mavericks called a 20-second timeout and spent a good 15 seconds trudging back to the huddle, defeated.
At courtside, owner Donald Carter sat in his hideous shirt and his jeans and his 10-gallon hat, cheering his team wildly while it was 15 down. The latest news? Jimmy Jackson says he’ll never, ever, EVER sign with the Mavs, no matter how many faxes they send.
Source: Encyclopedia.com
Well Jim ended up staying (contracts will do that to you), but the Mavericks continued to flounder by averaging close to a 27-55 record the next 4 years. This is impressive despite drafting win-producer Jason Kidd. It seemed that the 3 J’s were destined to be part of a great future, but this wasn’t the case. In 1996-97, all three were traded away as the team decided to go in a new direction under Don Nelson.
The 1999-00 Chicago Bulls finished with a 17-65 record, a few seasons removed from the Jordan era. The team did have some promising rookies in Elton Brand and Ron Artest while bringing in John Starks and Bruce Bowen after trading away Toni Kukoc during the season. The following season the Bulls drafted/acquired Brad Miller, Jamal Crawford, Marcus Fizer and Ron Mercer, but this time they won only 15 games including losing a franchise worst 21 straight games on the road.
Overall, the promise never amounted to anything as the team averaged a 22-60 during the four year stretch after the 1999-2000 season. The overriding theme seemed to be concentrating on youth without enough experience as they fell into a pattern gambling on youth that failed to pan out including Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler and Jay Williams.
The 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers were able to collect some talent after two horrendous years. However, Lamar Odom, Derek Anderson, Maurice Taylor and Michael Olowokandi only managed 15 wins while starting the season with a then NBA record of 17 straight losses.
On paper, this team’s untapped talent and balance — four players averaging more than 13 points per game, and arguably the largest collection of “he’s-got-great-upside” players — belies its results.
Source: NBA.com
In the following years, they garnered an impressive amount of talent on paper: Darius Miles, Quentin Richardson, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand and Andre Miller. Guess what, all these young guys managed to contribute an average W/L record of 31-51 the following four years.
Now, there have been some deviations from the norm when franchises have decided to completely entrust their future in youth. Namely, the Portland Trail Blazers come to mind. After blowing up the Jail Blazers and some troubling players the next few years, they appear to be ready to challenge the league’s best for years to come. However, it would appear it takes a special bunch of players like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge among others to make it happen.
Therefore, where does this leave the current Nets? Coming into this year, there were no illusions, but there was hope that the Nets had put together a solid young core. However, Dave Berri of The Wages of Win Journal made an interesting analysis of the Net’s franchise. Basically, when Jason Kidd has not been on their team, they’ve been a bad team and his predictions don’t have anything changing that.
In addition, their terrible start is already affecting their morale:
“We don’t have any heart,” Chris Douglas-Roberts, the second-year guard, said. “It’s like we’re laying down. Weak. It’s a sign of weakness.”
Douglas-Roberts said the word was out on his team: “All you got to do is come out, punch them in the mouth and they’ll give up and run with their tail between their legs.”
Although the Nets were decimated by injuries early in the streak, they are nearly back to whole. Yet the fight they briefly showed in close defeats in early November is nonexistent.
“The spirit’s been broken a little bit,” said guard Devin Harris, the Nets’ lone All-Star.
Source: New York Times
Uh-oh – hopefully, this is just a fleeting attitude and the Nets can put together a lot of solid performances. Otherwise, you’ve got to believe they’ll continue to be tested mentally as other historically bad teams and it will take all their effort to stay together and focused on a common goal.
2) A second method of attempting to change years of bad fortune is through free agency. A key signing or two could significantly change a team’s outlook. However, there are multiple obstacles to this theory. Poorly performing teams seem to have trouble acquiring or keeping top talent.
Let’s look at the top 30 players by salary (all over $14M). 15 of them are on teams that had over a .600 win% (50+ wins), while just 3 of them are on sub-.400 teams. In other words, the most successful teams employed 1.67 of these elite players on average, while the worst teams employed just 0.375 elite players.
Source: Hawkonomics
These statistics were compiled from last year’s payroll and performance. One can gleam two likely scenarios for this disparity. One, top players usually have choices in their destination; thus, they choose to play for a winning team that gives them a shot for a championship. Two, poor performing teams usually suffer from the lack of capital necessary to sign major free agents. Media outlets aren’t interested to pay top dollar to carry broadcasts while businesses and fans aren’t interested in sinking money for tickets, suites and other endeavors.
In one of the other historically bad teams we analyzed, the Chicago Bulls attempted to go the free agency route:
Remember, the summer of 2000 was supposed to be it. Actually, scratch that, Chicago had big designs on the summer of 1999, if we’re honest. And, if we’re to be completely accurate, the summer of 1998 was supposed to see all sorts of free agents flock to Chicago to eat up the team’s cap space. The summer of 1998 didn’t happen, for anyone. GM Jerry Krause saw the writing on the wall when most FAs signed with their old teams for more money in the truncated post-lockout offseason, and after talking up the 1999 offseason, he decided to make a few more cap-clearing moves and parlay that money (and two lottery picks) to the 2000 offseason.
Source: ChicagoNow
As we can observe, the free agency route failed the post-Jordan Bulls. Players obviously had no desire to come to Chicago despite the apparent available capital. Therefore, what is there to ensure the same won’t happen to the Nets? They’re off to a horrendous start, have historically been a well below average team and have put all their faith into a roster comprised of largely unproven young players.
However, the Nets do have two things in their favor. First, it appears the long proposed move to Brooklyn will definitely happen. Second, the Nets also have a new principal owner – Mikhail Prokhorov – one of the wealthiest men in the world. Playing in the most dynamic sports city in American coupled with the deepest pockets can potentially bring in a top player or two.
They want a basketball team in Brooklyn – but not this one.
After the New Jersey Nets broke the record Wednesday night for starting an NBA season with the most consecutive losses – 18 – some borough sports fans had a message for owner Bruce Ratner as he tries to bring the team to Brooklyn: Start winning or don’t bother.
“I don’t want an 0-and-18 team coming to New York, especially to Brooklyn,” said Assane Ethols, 21, a Canarsie security guard. “It’s go hard or go home here.”
Source: New York Daily News
It looks like a lot DOES ride on this season so let’s hope the current group starts playing better.
The biggest storyline fantasy circles during week four had to be the return of Elton Brand. Over the first ten games of the season, Brand’s owners have practically had to be on suicide watch. Over the past week, however, Brand has been the second best player in fantasy basketball, period (averaged 19.3 points on .523/.867 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 10.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.7 steals, 3.7 blocks and 2.0 turnovers over the past three games). That is a vintage EB line right there.
Another couple of big names made their season debuts this past week as Antawn Jamison and Pau Gasol both made big splashes in their season debuts. Jamison immediately showed everyone why he is one of the most under-appreciated players in fantasy basketball, averaging 22.7 points on .490/.591 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers in three games this season. Gasol also reminded owners why they spent such a high draft pick on him, posting 24 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.o turnovers in his season debut. Welcome back, fellas.
Other owners were not so lucky last week, with Mike Miller, Andrew Bogut, Jameer Nelson, Erick Dampier and Raja Bell all going down with varying injuries and ailments. For more early season excitement, we also had the first in-season trade of the 2009-10 season sending Stephen Jackson and Acie Law to the Bobcats sending Raja Bell and Valdimir Radmanovic to the Warriors. With week four almost in the books, it is time to look ahead and strategize for week five.
Week Five Schedules
Four Games: DAL, DEN, LAC, MEM, MIL, MIN, NJN, NYK, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, SAN, TOR
Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAL, MIA, OKC, PHX, UTA, WAS
Two Games: CHI, NOH
ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)
Dahntay Jones (SG/SF – 40%) This season can definitely be labeled a breakout season for Dahntay in Indy, as he is posting career-highs in virtually every single statistical category after signing with the Pacers. For Jones, ride him while he is hot as he should only face increased competition for minutes as the Pacers return to full strength (most notably Mike Dunleavy). Surprisingly, Jones has been effective on both offense and defense (2.0 steals and 1.7 blocks and 19.7 points on .525 percent shooting over the past three).
Drew Gooden (PF/C – 26%) With Dampier out indefinitely with a mystery illness, Gooden has responded in a beastly manner. Over the past week, Gooden has posted averages of 14.8 points on .500/.818 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.0 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.3 blocks and 1. turnovers. Those are very nice numbers for a center three pulled off the waiver wire. Gooden deserves a universal add for his recent strong production.
Jared Dudley (SF/PF – 19%) Dudley is a player that most casual NBA fans are probably not familiar with but would be if he played for a prime-time team like the Lakers. His a role player that stays on the court through pure hustle and effort in the 2008-09 Trevor Ariza mold. Despite the low ownership numbers, Dudley has been climbing up the fantasy rankings (93rd overall in per game value according to Ziguana) with his potent combination of threes and steals with low turnovers.
Steve Blake (PG – 16%) It appears Blake has won Portland’s point guard battle (fow now) making him rosterable if you need assists, threes and free throw percentage. Over the past week, Blake has put up top-1oo value and played 35 minutes per game with free agent addition Andre Miller outside of the top 200 and averaging 25 minutes per game. I’m not cutting Miller in standard leagues yet, but am getting pretty damn close. The only question left is why Portland paid Miller over $20 million over three years to run their second unit? For a team that has seemingly made all the right moves lately, it just seems like they made the move for the sake of making a move and not because it was the best fit for their team.
Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 15%) In his second stint in the NBA, Ilyasova is starting to prove that he belongs in the League and that he deserves universal ownership. Over the past week, Ersan has put up top fifty value averaging 14.8 points on .488/.727 percent shooting, 2.3 threes, 9.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers in four games. This combination of threes and boards from a forward is a very nice addition without having to sacrifice too much in either of the percentages. His strong play has most likely solidified his spot in the Bucks’ starting lineup (started the past three games).
CUT LIST
Jonny Flynn (PG/SG – 78%) With rookies learning the game at the highest level, efficiency and minutes are usually the main impediments to fantasy value. In Flynn’s case, he has gotten decent minutes (28.4 per game in 13 games this season) but has had serious problems with the efficiency. For reference, Flynn has shot .442 percent from the field (.250 percent from three point land) while also averaging more turnovers than assists (3.5 to 3.2 per game). Add in the fact that Ramon Sessions is a more experienced player and actually has some pretty serious game and Flynn is looking more like a long-term project and less like an immediate impact player. Cut bait.
Andray Blatche (PF/C – 48%) Bulletproof had one hell of a run to start this season. With Jamison out with a preseason shoulder injury, Andray stepped it up in a big way posting top-100 value for the first few weeks. Since Antawn’s return to the Wizards’ starting lineup, Blatche’s minutes have dropped considerably (17, 15, 25 minutes in his past three games) and his status has been demoted from universal ownership to waiver wire wonder. Thank him for his service and be ready to pick him up again in the event of another injury to a Wizards forward.
STAY THE COURSE
John Salmons (SG/SF – 87%) John Salmons giveth and he taketh away. This week, Salmons gave two strong performances back-to-back and then followed them up with a stinker. In fact, last week saw the only two game streak in which Salmons shot .500 percent or greater from the field. However, his .182 percent shooting night on Saturday abruptly brought an end to Salmons owners’ happiness. As with before, the counting stats are there but his shooting efficiency has been terrible (.345 this season versus .444 career). Don’t trade Salmons for an inferior player.
Stephen Curry (PG/SG – 66%) Since S-Jax was unceremoniously sent packing last week, Curry has posted some of the best numbers of his career. Over the past week, Curry has averaged 13.0 points on .448/.800 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 3.3 turnovers. The turnovers are a definite concern but as long as he is providing decent counting stats on good percentages it is palatable.
DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS
Jason Williams (PG – 17%) Another season and another injury for Jameer Nelson. This one (meniscus) promises to keep Nelson on the bench for at least a month. This means second-string point man White Chocolate is now the starting point guard in Orlando and deserves consideration in deep leagues. If the Magic do not end up trading for another PG or signing a free agent floor general, Williams could eventually play his way into wider ownership. Sunday’s 16 point, 5 rebound, 3 assist performance is a step in that direction.
Terrence Williams (SG/SF/PF – 18%) Williams has had a roller-coaster ride of a rookie season so far with his team win-less through thirteen games. Terrence has shown why he was drafted eleventh overall in the 2009 NBA Draft. Williams’ last couple of games have been promising and he could be positively affected by the return of Devin Harris. Williams is worth picking up at this point in deep leagues to see if he can continue and build upon his recent strong play.
Darren Collison (PG/SG – 13%) / Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 3%) These two Hornets guards have both been on our watch list before and most certainly would have been upgraded to the Add List if it wasn’t for the Hornets’ week upcoming schedule. With Chris Paul down for at least a few more weeks, both of these players can provide interim help in the short-term in different categories. If you are looking for assists, points, threes and free throw percentage give Collison a look. If you are looking for threes, points and field goal percentage with low turnovers give the other Thornton an add.
WATCH LIST
James Harden (PG/SG – 33%) With two strong games back-to-back, Harden is one player that may have turned the corner. Sunday’s contest against the Lakers will be a good heat check for Harden. If the rookie posts another strong line in under 30 minutes, he deserves roster consideration. In the past two games, Harden averaged 24.5 points on .600/.900 percent shooting, 5.0 threes per game, 3.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.5 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. Obviously he is going to cool off a bit, but if he can put up numbers anywhere close to this consistently he’d be worthy of a roster spot in all formats.
Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 3%) Another rookie coming off of a strong performance against the over-acheiving Rockets is Sacramento Kings forward Omri Casspi. Casspi set a career-high in scoring going for 17 points on .400/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 8 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 1 turnover. Casspi also posted a career-high in minutes, which is a trend to keep an eye on. If the minutes come consistently for Casspi, he should have no problem putting up fantasy-relevant numbers. For now just monitor the situation and be prepared to act if his minutes continue to trend upward.
Every year there are players who will begin the season at a torrid pace. They rebound, steal, block and shoot their way to the top of the fantasy rankings right out of the gate. Conversely, on the less exciting side, there are also players you drafted early hoping they will have a stellar season for your team only to find out that they are anything but the great player you had hoped for.
This dichotomy can be so maddening for some owners that it will cause them to make rash decisions that savvy managers can exploit for their own selfish purposes (winning). Everyone likes a good deal and the fantasy community is no different. If you can find a manager who is tired of watching one of their star players under-perform, offer him a trade for a player(s) of less clout. The idea is to trade for a top-notch type player while he is at his statistical worst, buy low. Or trade away your over-achiever for a slumping stud, sell high.
The Buy Low
Before any trades are proposed, you need to consider a few things about the player(s) you are giving up as well as the player(s) you are receiving. When buying low, consider that you are essentially hunting in the bargain-bin at your local thrift store. The items (players) may have been nice at one time but now are used and a little worn out.
A few things to consider. Is the player coming off a down season that was an anomaly when compared to the rest of his career? Think Josh Smith last year, a year where he had career-lows in basically every statistical category (points, blocks, assists, rebounds) versus his play this year. Hopefully that year was just that, an anomaly, and the player will hopefully bounce back to his previous success of seasons past. Also, consider any injury history. Any player coming off of a major injury or surgery is surely going to have his value discounted at draft time. Finally, the true buy low player, a guy who just flat-out is not playing well at all but has a strong past track record to use as a reference point.
Here are a few buy low candidates to consider early on in the season.
The Injured Player. Kevin Martin and Chris Paul are two fantastic fantasy players that are viable buy low candidates at this point in the season and illustrate the injury aspect well. No one wants to have an injured player on their roster. Its no fun watching one of your premier players accumulate zeros across the board night after night. After a few days or weeks of having to sit through an injury it can be beneficial to approach a slumping manager with a trade proposal for an injured star.
The other K-Mart has a hairline fracture in his left wrist that required surgery on November 9th. He is due out anywhere from 6-8 weeks but could be out longer as he doesn’t have the best track record for staying healthy. Owners needing a lift in threes, points, and free throw percentage may want to make a play for him. With a guy like Martin, it may make sense to wait a while to let the owner’s frustration grow to the breaking point.
Chris Paul is also out of action due to an ankle sprain and the initial prognoses is that he will be out for approximately one month. Making a trade proposal for CP3 requires a little bit more effort and tact. It is no easy process to get an owner to give up his number one pick, let alone the first or second overall pick in the draft. Paul is most likely only out a few weeks not an extended period so one would have to give up a quality player(s) that are not only healthy but are also producing top tier value. The key here is to not go too overboard in who you are willing to give up. Sure Paul can easily win a number of categories and possibly it all for your team but he isn’t worth it if you have to strip your roster to the bear bones just to acquire him. If Paul’s owner is losing bad it could benefit you to make a play for him ASAP while he is still out for a few weeks and the owner is still antsy to get a productive body in his lineup.
This type of buy low is especially effective when tried on managers at the bottom of the standings. They are more likely to be willing to deal an injured stud for lesser value in order to keep from falling too far behind and out of the playoff hunt.
The Player Returning from Injury. Pretty self explanatory here. Target a player who is just getting ready or has just returned from injury. Anytime a player has an injury that forces them to miss extended amounts of time, he usually comes back rusty and has a few bad games early on. Currently, there are multiple players that fit this bill including Kevin Love, Eric Gordon and Pau Gasol. Gordon and Love are still injured but are due back sooner rather than later and Gasol should be back to return Thursday night against the Bulls.
All three players are productive and can help virtually any team. When they do finally suit up, be sure to monitor their first couple of games. If they start out slow, send a trade proposal to open up tentative trade talks (nothing insulting). Most likely they will regain their form in a few games and will be right back to where they were before their injury. Just don’t wait too long because once they do fully recover, their value will drastically increase and your opportunity to buy low will be closed forcing you to pay full market value to obtain him.
Note: Be more cautious with major structural injuries that require months of rehabilitation as effects can often linger. Think Elton Brand trying to come back from his Achilles injury over the past couple of seasons.
The Slumping Player. Simple, go after any player who is performing below their career averages or your expected averages for this season. The idea here is the law of averages. If a player has performed at a certain (high) level for many years and is currently under-performing, he most likely will pick his game up at some point and eventually will end up performing at or near his career averages. A few players to consider under this model are Brand, Jose Calderon, Thaddeus Young and John Salmons.
All are in major slumps compared to their historical production and could be had on the cheap (well Brand’s window may be closed after his vintage performance against the Bobcats last night: 19 points on .471/.750 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 6 blocks and 1 turnover). One major caveat here is to be careful for a player currently slumping that also just signed a major extension, think Luol Deng in 2008-09, minus the stress fracture. Sometimes players just don’t have that fire in them after the big pay day and it can affect their entire season. For an excellent more in-depth article on Salmons, check out the latest Great Debate piece.
Other buy lows to consider: Caron Butler, Al Jefferson.
The Sell High
If one of your players is playing such great basketball that it seems unlikely that he will continue to keep pace, then selling high is your best option to get positive returns on your player investment.
The Injury Fill-In. Anytime a starter goes down he opens up a spot for a bench player to shine. They can often be great pick-ups for the short term but will quickly lose their value once the starter returns. One player to unload immediately, like as in yesterday, is Andray Blatche. With a Basketball Monster rank of 65th overall in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 53rd overall in per game value, Blatche’s value is as high as it ever will be. Antawn Jamison is back from a shoulder injury and the party is officially over for Andray. In Jamison’s first game back, Blatche had 6 points and zero rebounds in just over 17 minutes.
Rookies. Rookies have become more intriguing over the past couple of years and are capable of making an immediate fantasy impact. Guys like O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose had managers salivating last season. This year, Tyreke Evans, Blake Griffin (even though he hasn’t even played a game yet) and Brandon Jennings have all been hot commodities. Jennings in particular appears to have been the steal of the draft (in both real life and in fantasy) with an average draft position of 126th overall in Yahoo! leagues. His 55 point outburst against Golden State last week got everyone’s attention and if you are skeptical of his ability to continue at such a high rate, now is the time to start shopping him. His current Ziguana rank is 15th overall. I’m not saying he won’t be great the rest of the year because he easily can be, but consider that it is early in a long season.
Rookies are not used to the physical demands of the NBA and its grueling 82 game schedule. The fabled “rookie wall” is very important to consider. Usually sometime mid-season around the 45-50 game mark, rookies start to slow down and their production drops. It is part of the game, learning how to keep your body healthy for the length of the season and rookies sometimes forget that the season is a marathon not a sprint. Watch out for the rookie wall and consider selling high before it happens to your rooks, especially if you can get a proven stud in return.
The Injury-Prone Player. The classic sell high candidate is the injury-prone player. A guy who always seems to miss time each season but is a strong player when healthy. To look at it from another perspective, they have high per game values but low cumulative values. There are many players that fall into this category and it can often be tough to cut ties with a player who is playing to his full potential. This season there have been a number of players you could label as injury-prone who are healthy and are rewarding their owners.
Two of the best example are Staples Center big men Chris Kaman and Andrew Bynum. Over the past two seasons combined, they have missed 77 and 79 games respectively. But this year they are both healthy so far and are producing a per game Ziguana rank of 49th and 12th overall, respectively. When they are healthy they can carry your team in blocks and rebounding while providing solid percentages and points. But with multiple, serious injuries in the past, their durability is definitely an issue to consider. Kaman seems to have found his rhythm and is playing very well. Ongoing nagging injuries and simply being old could keep Marcus Camby “day-to-day” for longer than expected making Kaman’s production sustainable for the foreseeable future. Even with Blake Griffin due back next month from injury, expect Kaman’s value to hold strong. Bynum is a little more of a wild card. Two major knee surgeries in the past are signs owners might be a little scared of. However his 20.3 points on .591/.717 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11.8 rebounds 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.8 blocks and 2.3 turnovers make Bynum a major sell high candidate, just be sure you get quality value in return for the young center. Also, just remember that Bynum has posted these numbers with Pau on the floor this season, which is another reason to consider selling high on Andrew.
Other sell highs to consider: Marc Gasol, Channing Frye.
Of all of this season’s early story lines, the big constants have been Golden State’s descent into the abyss and Chicago swingman John Salmons‘ poor shooting. Fantasy managers that drafted him expected efficient scoring and across the board production. Instead, owners have been rewarded with a roto-crippling field goal percent of .317 through the Bulls’ first nine games. If Salmons were to keep shooting at this clip for the entire season, it would easily qualify as a career worst for him.
With owners stuck with less than what they bargained for from their middle-round pick (average draft position of 73.7 in Yahoo! leagues), each manager must evaluate their situation and decide what course of action should be taken. For owners lucky enough not to have drafted John, they are left wondering whether he is a nice buy low target or whether he should be treated like he has the H1N1.
Throughout his career, nothing has ever been given to Salmons and he has hung around the league until injuries opened up increased PT. And with an increased role, he truly broke out and took the fantasy world by storm becoming a fast favorite for those lucky enough to snag him off the waiver wire. In casual NBA circles, Salmons’ rise to prominence, like many of his young teammates, was the epic Celtics-Bulls first round playoff series of 2008-09 that will go down as one of the greatest of all time.
With a basketball resume spanning eight seasons in the NBA, Salmons’ production is a relatively known quantity (or at least we thought it was), previously providing sneaky-good roto contributions that was good for 50th overall in per game value according to Basketball Monster and 53rd in per game value according to Ziguana. His cumulative value was also top notch at 34th according to BBM and 33rd according to Ziguana. Last season, his per-36 minute averages were 17.6 points on .472/.830 percent shooting, 1.5 threes (on .417 percent shooting), 4.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. When managers spent a eighth round pick on average on Salmons, those were the numbers they expecting in return.
But what went wrong? And more importantly, will he turn it around in time to salvage the season?
For Salmons, the situation is complex and there are various competing theories for what could be causing his shooting woes. In his case, there probably isn’t one right answer but instead a combination of contributing factors and competing theories that provide insight as to why Salmons has been shooting so poorly this season.
Let’s dive right in, analyze and discuss how each of them affect John’s outlook for the remainder of the season.
Theory One: Baby Watch
Salmons definitely had an interesting offseason dealing with a sore groin that dates back to the aforementioned epic Celtics playoff series. In addition, Salmons also dealt with the birth of his daughter. If you are wondering whether the birth of Salmons’ child could really be a contributing factor to his poor shooting, take a look at an NBC Sports player update blurb posted during the offseason.
John Salmons missed Friday’s game due to the birth of his child. He will rejoin the team on Sunday. This birth has been lingering for weeks and he can now focus on the Bulls now that it’s over. Congratulations, John. Now let’s play ball.
Source: NBA Sports
Lacking focus during the offseason can have negative effects at the beginning of the season as a player will have to play catch-up or struggle with things that he should have worked on when games didn’t matter. If this were the case, you would expect to see his shooting percentages down across the board, which is exactly the case with Salmons.
Those of you not buying the argument that the birth of a child could be that much of a distraction obviously don’t have any children or don’t know anyone with kids. Don’t worry; you’ll see for yourself one day. Managers that buy into this theory should hang on to Salmons if they own him or try to buy low, as he is bound to turn it around eventually once he regains his focus and conditioning.
Theory Two: Law of Averages
Another theory with a more optimistic outlook for John’s fantasy relevance centers around the law of averages, or more formally regression to the mean. In it’s most simplest form, regression to the mean can be boiled down to the idea that statistics like shooting percentages tend to gravitate towards their averages. In this case, Salmons has just had an extremely negative string of performances early on and each subsequent performance will tend to gravitate toward his career averages.
In this case, offseason distractions, roster changes and individual matchups so far this season don’t really matter. What matters are the numbers and Salmons’ established track record in eight seasons in the NBA. With a large enough sample size we can be confident that Salmons is a .444 percent field goal shooter, a .357 percent three point shooter and a .798 percent free throw shooter and not the .317/.267/.742 percent shooter we’ve seen so far this season.
Again, this time for dramatic purposes, the only really important things to examine with the theory of the law of averages is John’s current production versus his established averages. His numbers will return to normalcy at some point this season, salvaging John’s fantasy value and making him a roto-stud, as expected. For those that believe this, Salmons is a serious buy low that could pay huge dividends down the line.
Theory Three: Three Point Shooting
It’s no secret; the Bulls need help with their three point shooting this season. Desperately. For a little perspective, they rank 29th in three point attempts, 30th in threes made and 30th in three point shooting percentage. Officially, the Bulls are hands down the worst three point shooting team in the league this season. Compared to last year, the Bulls are significantly worse from behind the arc (23rd/22nd/6th, respectively, in 2008-09).
Which begs the question, what’s the main difference between last year’s three point shooting and this season’s?
Ben Gordon’s departure is the single biggest reason for the drop-off as a team. However, John Salmons’ and the other Bulls guards’ regression is another (John’s three point shooting percentage dropped from .415 in 2008-09 with Chicago to .267 this season while his attempts increased from 4.5 per game to 5.0 attempts). Chicago’s two other main rotation guards, sophomore point guard Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich, have not been getting it done from downtown either. Rose just doesn’t have three point range yet, as his .213 career and .000 current season three point shooting percentages attest. Hinrich, like Salmons, has been slumping so far this season shooting a career worst .267 from deep.
Gordon’s proficiency from downtown and propensity to launch bombs has been missed in Chicago thus far. However, none of Chicago’s guards have increased their attempts per game except for Salmons. Sometimes when players increase their shot attempts they not only take more shots but they also take more bad shots. It’s the opposite of the commonly quoted phrase letting the game come to you. When you ignore the common adage, overall efficiency suffers, which could be what is going on with John right now.
If you are persuaded by this theory, the Bulls as a team (ahem Coach Vinny Del Negro) will either need to find a solution to replace Gordon’s three point shooting or Salmons will need to reduce the number of threes he takes per game. Either one would help alleviate some of the pressure on Salmons’ shooting efficiency and make his fantasy line more palatable. Or so the Theory Three goes. According to this Theory, Salmons would be a buy low until Coach Del Negro or Salmons himself makes the necessary adjustments.
Theory Four: Different Shots
The fourth theory of interest is that Salmons is getting different looks than he was getting last year, with a negative result. The solution would be a coaching change that allowed John to get the looks he was seeing last season and the expected result would be a return to his efficient scoring ways. But does the evidence support this claim?
Examining shot data from 2008-09 and from this season, you can see a subtle shift in the pattern of shots Salmons is taking. His is relying on his jump shot more and is relying on his teammates to set him up more. At the same time, he is taking less attempts close to the basket and inside. These changes could all be expected to contribute to a lower field goal percentage. Looking at the shot data in a different way, what is the reason for the change in Salmons’ shot selection?
At 30 years of age, the changes evidenced in Salmons’ shot data could be the result of losing just a bit of his athleticism. Losing a step forces him to rely more heavily on his jumper, which was never John’s strongest part of his game, instead of slashing and getting higher percentage looks closer to the rim. Call this Theory 4.1. Or, the changes in Salmons’ shot selection could be a result of the emergence of Joakim Noah as a legitimate force in the paint, forcing Salmons farther away from the hoop into lower percentage looks. Call that Theory 4.2. The final variation is that John’s different looks could be solely Coach Del Negro’s fault, as he is ultimately the one who coordinates the Bulls offense and orchestrates the Bulls’ attack. For those keeping track that would be Theory 4.3.
If you buy 4.1, John’s atrophy is only going to accelerate so wait for Salmons’ next big game and see what you can get for him. Cut your losses, as they say. However, if you happen to be believers of Theory 4.2 or 4.3, coaching changes could allow Salmons to become an efficient scoring machine once again. The question then becomes, how much faith do you have in second year head coach, Vinny Del Negro, to make the necessary adjustments?
Theory Five: Higher Usage
The last, and probably most commonly cited theory, is the idea that Salmons is now forced to shoulder a heavier burden on offense with Gordon in Mo-Town and his efficiency has suffered as a result. With Gordon gone, Salmons has to take more shots on offense (increased usage) while simultaneously receiving greater defensive attention and pressure. Unfortunately for us, there are no freely-available statistics that track double teams or defensive pressure. Teams probably track statistics that could shed some light on this issue but they are not available to the public at this point. Not yet at least.
However, there are metrics that track usage percentage, which is simply an estimate of the number of team plays a player uses while he is on the floor. Contrary to the common wisdom, Salmons is actually shouldering a lighter load this season with a usage percentage of 19.8 percent down slightly from 20.2 last season. In this case, the numbers just don’t back up the theory that a higher usage is responsible for John’s decreased efficiency. And with no means of objectively testing the amount of defensive pressure Salmons is receiving this season, Theory Five is looking to be more or less debunked.
Conclusion
Of all the theories that attempt to explain Salmons’ poor efficiency, none clearly stand out as the definitive explanation for John’s shooting woes. More realistically, Salmons is suffering from the perfect storm of offseason distractions, team dynamics, roster changes, coaching issues, tough scheduling early on, confidence problems or a myriad of other possible contributing factors.
Of all the possible explanations, the higer usage theory is the one with the least amount of supporting evidence. Similar to the Elton Brand situation in Philadelphia, we as fantasy managers cannot know what is actually causing Salmons’ poor efficiency this season. As a result, the burden lies on each of us to examine each argument individually and weigh it against the facts. Based upon how you are swayed and by which argument, it totally changes whether you should cut your losses or try and buy low.
Few issues divide the fantasy fanatics these days more decisively than the Elton Brand conundrum. As in the I drafted Elton Brand now what the hell do I do with him conundrum. Those fortunate enough to not have drafted Brand remain on the sidelines trying to determine whether or not to target EB as a suitable buy low candidate.
Newcomers to fantasy basketball may not understand all the man-love and hype surrounding Brand. Over the prior two season, Elton played a total of 37 games, posting averages of 14.6 points on .449/.710 percent shooting, 8.6 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.3 turnovers. Solid, for sure, but nothing to pine over. However, many managers have a strong affinity to owning Brand after some monster seasons in the not so distant past (Andrei Kirilenko, anyone?).
Step into the time machine and take a look at Brand’s 2005-06 season, which is probably the finest of his career, during which he played 79 games logging just under 40 minutes per. He posted 24.7 points on .527/.775 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 10.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.5 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. I’ll take two, please. Current Brand owners are hoping for a return to the dominant, first round stud of yesteryear. Although at this point, they’d definitely settle for third round production.
What’s not up for debate is the fact that Brand’s production has fallen off, and significantly so. This season, Brand’s averages are 10.1 points on .452/.833 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 5.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. These averages are good for 133rd in per game value according to Basketball Monster and 131st in per game value according to Ziguana. Pretty tough for a guy that was drafted 39th overall on average in Yahoo! leagues.
What is up for debate is the reason for Brand’s decreased production this season and his future outlook. There are two competing theories to explain his output this season, both of which are not mutually exclusive. Theory one is that Brand is old and his major injuries have permanently limited his ability to play basketball at the highest level. The second theory is that he simply isn’t fitting into Eddie Jordan’s Princeton offense. The two theories, however, do lead to different conclusions about the possible career trajectory for EB.
Theory One: Old and Injured
In basketball years, 30 means you qualify for AARP membership and can no longer relate to the youths. Your run isn’t necessarily over, but time is most definitely no longer on your side. There are some players that can play effectively late into life (John Stockton comes to mind), but big men with a history of serious injuries do not exactly fit the Stockton mold.
But what injuries did Brand suffer and how serious were they?
Brand has suffered four major injuries in his eleven seasons playing professional basketball. Over his first eight seasons, Brand missed a total of 50 games while suffering two moderate injuries. Brand’s first stint on the injured reserve list came in 2002-03 when he suffered a stress fracture in his left leg and missed 18 games. Brand’s second stint on the injured reserve list occurred the next season when he missed 13 of the Clippers’ first games with a hairline stress fracture of his right foot.
These two injuries early in Brand’s career were nothing too out of the ordinary for a big man playing physical basketball in the paint. However, everything would change for Brand in August 2007.
In the latest nasty injury blow for the Los Angeles Clippers, cornerstone forward Elton Brand ruptured his left Achilles tendon on Friday during his usual daily workout.
Brand, 28, is expected to undergo surgery next week and joins teammate Shaun Livingston on the list of long-term injury victims for the Clippers. Achilles tendon injuries typically sideline NBA players for at least a year, which would theoretically threaten Brand’s availability for all of the 2007-08 season.
Source: ESPN
Rupturing the Achilles tendon is a devastating injury and can sap the explosiveness of an athlete, potentially permanently. There is not even consensus on the best treatment for a ruptured Achilles. This type of injury is so devastating that there is even an online community dedicated to bringing together people who are recovering from a ruptured Achilles. The result for Brand was a disappointing 2007-08 campaign in which he only played in eight, mediocre games. If you stashed EB on your bench for most of the 2007-08 season, you probably lost. My condolences.
After a frustrating 2007-08 season, Brand bailed on the Clippers for greener pastures playing in Philadelphia. He was the marquee free agent signing of the summer of 2008, inking a five year, $80 million dollar deal. At the time, the Brand signing was widely seen as the piece that would push the Sixers from pretenders to contenders. Unfortunately for Elton, fate had other plans for him last season.
After a less than perfect union between Brand and the Sixers early on, the major injury bug would strike again. This time, Brand suffered a dislocated shoulder while committing a foul against the Bucks’ rookie forward out of UCLA, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. After missing 16 games, Brand returned for a handful of games before re-aggravating his injured shoulder. This time, he opted for season-ending surgery on his right shoulder.
That brings us to the current-day Elton Brand.
With these recent injuries, both have the potential to impact Brand’s ability to play basketball at the level at which he played in the 2005-06 season. Although there have been no reports confirming this fact (and why would the team choose to release this information anyways?), Brand’s range of motion and ability to hit mid range jumpers could be affected by his shoulder injuries last season. Elton is right-handed and his dislocated shoulder was his right shoulder. This would expect us to see lower shooting efficiency (check) and less rebounds (check). Circumstantial evidence seems to support the idea that Brand’s shoulder injury has left him with a limited range of motion, but we can’t know for sure.
As far as the Achilles rupture, Brand’s tendon should be similarly as strong as it was prior to injury while the risk of re-rupture should be almost non-existant.
Mendelbaum and colleagues showed that those undergoing direct repair lost only 2.6% of their strength when undergoing isokinetic testing and that 92% of athletes were able to return to their respective sports at a similar level at 6 months postoperatively.
Source: Medscape.com
However, there is a problem. The size of Brand’s calf muscle is noticeably smaller since the injury. Apparently, he suffered a lot of muscle atrophy which he hasn’t as yet been able to fully regain. A comparison could be made to Dominique Wilkins who suffered through an identical injury – Achilles tear and differently sized calf muscle. He went on to make a successful comeback earning two more All-star appearances.
What differentiates Brand from ‘nique is that he’s never relied on fantastic athleticism. Once Wilkins was able to rehab his tendon extremely well, he was able to showcase his talents (or almost all of it) again. On the other hand, for Brand, his game has been centered more around power. It is quite conceivable that the missing strength in Brand’s calf is having some influence on his game. In reading the aforementioned article, Brand finishes it by saying that “it’s still coming.” This obviously is an admittance he’s not able to do the same stuff he was prior to the Achilles rupture.
If you accept the conclusions of Theory One, EB’s possible career trajectory is average at best and pathetic at worst. Brand is destined to be an extremely highly paid role player, one that people will never believe a franchise was stupid enough to give an $80 million contract to. If you find yourself in this camp, do not attempt to buy low on Brand and if you already own him, cut your losses and sell him for whatever you can get. Every fantasy league has a Brand optimist or two.
Theory Two: System/Coach
According to this viewpoint, Brand’s pitiful production this season is more a result of poor coaching and a mismatch between player and system. Under this theory, Eddie Jordan and his motion offense are the antagonists and Brand is simply caught in the crossfire. There are a few variations on this general theory but the basic themes remain the same.
The first variation is that Coach Jordan is not getting Brand the shots he wants, where he wants them while playing him limited minutes. It seems plausible at first, especially if you’ve watched some of Philadelphia’s games this season. But if you look at the shot selection data from Brand’s vintage season, 2005-06, and compare it to the current season, some remarkable similarities emerge.
If you look at the percentage of attempts of different types of shots, you see that Brand is taking different types of shots at about the same rate now as in 2005-06. In his vintage season, 70 percent of EB’s shots were jump shots, versus 71 percent now. The similarity between percentage of shot attempts holds true for close (24 percent versus 23 percent now), dunks (4 percent versus 6 percent now) and tips (2 percent versus 0 percent now). In 2005-06, 30 percent of Brand’s attempts were from close range versus 29 percent now. Thus, the shot selection data from 82 Games does not support the claim of vastly different shot selection between Brand’s vintage seasons and now.
Looking more closely at the data, a couple of differences emerge. Brand v2009 had more of his shots blocked than Brand v2005, which actually provides mild support for Theory One. However, the truly interesting numbers are the assisted percentage number. This reflects the percentage of shot attempts that were setup by EB’s teammates. Across the board, these numbers are down in the current season meaning Brand has more responsibility to create his own shot. If you read between the lines, you come to the conclusion that EB might be struggling with having to create his own shots without a pure point guard on the roster.
Moreover, isn’t it curious that Brand is easily seeing the lowest minutes he’s ever had in his career (a little over 27)? It’s especially confusing when you consider how much better the team performs when he is ON the floor. This, supports the idea that Brand’s struggles are related to the system and minutes that Coach Jordan has employed in the early goings this season.
The second variation is that Eddie Jordan is playing two post players (Brand along with either Samuel Dalembert or Marreese Speights) when the basics of the Princeton offense dictate it should be only one. Currently, Brand has logged the majority of his minutes at the four. This variation insists that Brand is being utilized ineffectively and that sliding him to the five where he can play closer to the basket where he can work on the low block. There may be some that point to the 82 Games stats by position. However, it must be pointed out that this data is based upon a very small sample size (around 10 total minutes of Brand at C). Take with large doses of salt.
If you buy either of these variations of Theory Two, Brand’s possible career trajectory is much rosier. The solution to the Elton Brand conundrum is simply adjust the offensive scheme or give Eddie the boot. Installing a system more suitable to the 80 million dollar man would correct a lot of the problems with Brand this season. If you fall into this camp and do not buy Theory One, Brand is a serious buy low candidate (depending upon your outlook for Jordan figuring it out or getting the axe).
Conclusion
Depending on which theory you buy into, last season’s marquee offseason signing, Elton Brand, ranges from a decent signing who has had a rough start in the City of Brotherly Love to a mediocre player with an absolute albatross of a contract. With such a large contract and these being tough economic times and all, Brand’s huge contract means he is most likely staying put for better or worse.
In the end, no one except maybe Elton Brand himself really knows whether Theory One or Theory Two is true. We each have the burden of examining the facts and interpreting them based upon our own personal observations. In the end, the onus is on each fantasy manager to come to his own conclusions for the reasons for Brand’s disappointing play and his possible career trajectory.
As a result of his disappointing play, Brand is catching lots of flack for his paycheck versus his production. Really, the blame for this unfortunate situation falls squarely on the Sixers front office for giving him so much money after a devastating Achilles injury and without seeing him play at a high level for a sustained period. For this reason, Brand should not be remembered for his Achilles but rather for his role as Atlas, destined to carry the load of the Philly faithful or to be crushed trying.
With Yao Ming officially down and out for the 2009-10 NBA season, fantasy managers in keeper and dynasty formats all have an interesting dilemma. Similar dilemmas play out each season, with recent examples being Elton Brand in 2007-08 and Gilbert Arenas in 2008-09. Dealing with injuries is one of the keys to fantasy success and is more complicated in dynasty and keeper formats.
In laying out the basics of keeper and dynasty strategy, the main thing to remember is that the fundamental goal every season is to win a championship. Anything less than a gold trophy can be considered a failure; there is no prize for rebuilding. However, winning the ultimate prize is easier said than done, especially when you lose one of your top players, such as Yao, for the entire season.
As always, league settings play a large role in how to handle the Ming Dilemma. Each individual situation is different and there is no one-size-fits-all approach to handling Yao Ming this season. The reason Yao Ming is such an interesting case study is because he is a bona fide first round talent in virtually every format when healthy. This makes the decision of whether to cut your losses and move on much more difficult.
Let’s take at some of the possible scenarios and examine the different methods of dealing with the Ming Dilemma.
Already Own Yao Ming
The greatest dilemma falls on the owners who already have Yao on their rosters as a keeper. In dynasty league formats, you have no choice but to hang on to Yao Ming and waste a roster spot carrying him all season. In dynasty formats, most managers have dead weight at the end of their rosters. Dynasty formats allow managers to carry project players for long periods of times as the players develop and improve.
In keeper leagues, the dilemma is more pronounced and is greatly affected by individual league settings and team makeup. In general, the more keepers a league allows, the more it makes sense to hang on to Yao. Extremely deep keeper leagues (10+ teams) are more akin to dynasty leagues than to shallow keeper leagues, which are strategically closer to redraft leagues.
Stacked teams are less likely to be forced into keeping Yao Ming or another injured superstar. These teams can sacrifice some long-term value for a worse player who will provide an immediate positive impact. At risk of sounding like a broken record, the point in any league is to win this season. Thus, if you have other viable keeper options, do not hesitate to get rid of Ming or another injured superstar.
One important caveat to note. For any league with an injured-reserve spot (or multiple IR spots), it almost universally makes sense to hang on to Yao Ming or another injured superstar. In these formats, Yao’s dead weight can be carried for most of the season without affecting your ability to compete for a title.
Yao is on the Waiver Wire
In some keeper leagues, Yao has already ended up on the waiver wire. Maybe he wasn’t drafted at all, or maybe he was jettisoned in favor of a guy who has played at a high level during the preseason. However he ended up there, inevitably managers start to wonder whether it makes sense to pick him up because it is a keeper league.
In most cases, it does not make sense to pickup Yao Ming if he is currently on the waiver wire. At this juncture in the season, your number one all-consuming goal should be winning the another trophy for your trophy case. Ming’s dead weight is a serious drag and greatly hinders this goal. In order to win, you need every advantage you can get.
I would recommend picking up Yao off the waiver wires in only two scenarios this season. The first is extremely positive medical news featuring a much quicker recovery timeline than expected. To take advantage of this, keep a close eye on any medical reports out of Houston and be prepared to act on a moment’s notice.
The second scenario occurs when your team is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. Once this occurs, it makes complete sense to drop no-upside players, such as Antonio McDyess, in order to make room for Yao. In keeper and dynasty leagues, the season is not over when you are eliminated from the playoffs. Instead, managers are greatly rewarded for picking up possible breakout candidates for next season and rostering them for the offseason. Then, you can monitor offseason developments and have more flexibility to make deals at the keeper deadline. A good example of this is owners who picked up Anthony Randolph at the end of last season for his scorching finish. Those managers were rewarded with a keeper quality player in leagues of five or more keepers.
Trade for Yao?
Similar to the situation in which Yao Ming is on the waiver wire, it can make sense to trade for Yao Ming. When mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, it is open season on lowball offers for injured studs. If the managers that owns an injured studs is competing for a trophy, they will most likely trade an injured stud for a much worse player in order to get production that can help them win now. In this case, a trade is mutually beneficial for both teams as one team improves in the short term and one team improves in the long term.
Conclusion
From much injury experience, I can attest that it is very, very difficult to carry dead weight for an entire season and still win a championship. Thus, the Ming Dilemma is a serious one that will have serious ramifications on your team’s success in the short and long term. Keep Yao only when it makes sense to do so. These strategies don’t only apply to Yao Ming — they also work with any injured superstar.
With most of the attention in Philly on newly anointed head coach Eddie Jordan and his highly anticipated Princeton offense, one third year forward out of Georgia Tech is quietly building a name for himself. Thaddeus Young is making a case to be considered one of the best mid-draft picks of the 2007 NBA Draft after being taken twelfth overall.
Last season, Young was asked to shoulder a much bigger role and his minutes spiked from 21.0 minutes per game in his rookie season to 34.4 minutes per game last season in 74 games. Those are big time minutes for the lesser known sophomore. At the Sixers’ recent media day, Young was asked how he has grown heading into the upcoming season.
I think I’ve grown a lot going with each season. Going into this season, I’ve been working on a lot of different things. I have been trying to get better at ball handling and shoot the ball a little more. Right now it’s not really about me it’s about this team and we are going to go out there and continue to work hard and try to defend, that’s the most important part. You guys have seen us in transition, we are going to go out there and do the thing we know how to do. I don’t think anyone’s going to be prepared for what’s going to happen because they are not use to the Sixers being the team that’s going to do a lot of passing and cutting.
Source: Philadelphia 76ers
With a lot of the talk focusing on how Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert are going to be deployed down low, not much mention is being made of Young’s role next season. Young should be splitting time at the three and four next season and should be fine whether starting or coming off the bench.
The good news is that early indications from training camp point to Young being a starter, as he has been getting run with the first unit, sliding Andre Iguodala to the shooting guard position.
With Andre Miller failing physicals in the Pacific Northwest, the Sixers will no longer have a pure distributor on the floor. The current plan is to start Louis Williams at the one despite the fact that he is more of a shoot-first (or attack-the-rim-first) than a pass-first guard.
But in Jordan’s system, not having a distributing point guard doesn’t matter as much as it would in other systems. The ball-handling duties will be distributed more evenly, and thus we can expect a slight bump in assists across the board in Philly.
With that in mind, take a look at Thaddeus’ career per-36 minute averages. He has averaged 15.3 points on .510/.736 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.6 turnovers. As mentioned before, we can probably expect a bump in his assists next season as Jordan’s offensive scheme is adopted and implemented.
In addition to a slight assist bump, another reason to be bullish about Young’s prospects next season is his three point shooting. Hold up, you say. Young is definitely not a great three point shooter (career .339 percent shooter). However, on a team that was arguably the league’s worst three point shooting team last season, Young should have ample opportunities to make it rain.
How bad were the Sixers from behind the arc last season? They couldn’t be that bad could they?
No sugarcoating it here; the 76ers were absolutely awful from deep in 2008-09. They were dead last in three point shooting percentage (.318 percent relative to the league average of .367), second to last in attempts (1072 versus a league average of 1486) and second to last in threes made (341 versus a league average of 545). Yuck.
Let’s revisit Thad’s quote about what he’s been working on recently:
I think I’ve grown a lot going with each season. Going into this season, I’ve been working on a lot of different things. I have been trying to get better at ball handling and shoot the ball a little more. Right now it’s not really about me it’s about this team and we are going to go out there and continue to work hard and try to defend, that’s the most important part. You guys have seen us in transition, we are going to go out there and do the thing we know how to do. I don’t think anyone’s going to be prepared for what’s going to happen because they are not use to the Sixers being the team that’s going to do a lot of passing and cutting.
Young has worked this summer on skills (ball handling, shooting) that will help him succeed in Coach Jordan’s system. He has the skill, he has the drive and he has a proven record of recent fantasy relevance. Last season, Young ranked 74th in per game value and 69th in cumulative value according to Basketball Monster.
Granted, Elton Brand missed a significant portion of last season (missed 53 games) but once a young, talented player like Thaddeus breaks out, it is rare that they regress without suffering injury (unless his name is Rudy Gay that is). With a Buser Sports average draft position of 109 and a Yahoo! O-Rank of 102, Young can certainly be had late enough to outproduce his draft position by a round (or two).
If there is any coach that can successfully get his players to play their best basketball, Coach Jordan is definitely the man. Arguably that is one of the reasons why the Wizards Bullets continually fell short in the playoffs with EJ in charge. They were already playing their best basketball while teams like the Cavaliers kicked it up a notch in the playoffs. Hard to punish a guy after getting the best out of his players for all 82 games.
The real story is that Eddie became the scapegoat for an entire franchise that got Arenased out of over $100 million. If there’s any coach that can be relied upon to maximize his player’s values, it is certainly Jordan. For that reason alone, Young should be worth a gamble in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts.
This past Saturday, the ever-present NBA trade rumors began to swirl again. This time talks were centered around one of the NBA’s biggest stars (literally), Shaquille O’Neal of the Phoenix Suns.
The Suns and the Cleveland Cavaliers are rumored to be engaged in preliminary trade talks that would send O’Neal to the Cavs for the expiring contracts of Ben Wallace ($14 million) and Sasha Pavlovic ($4.95 million with $1.5 million guaranteed). This is strictly a cost cutting move as far as the Suns are concerned.
The team does not want to go deep into luxury tax territory, especially considering that this is a team that failed to even reach the playoffs in 2009. Bloated with the league’s sixth largest payroll last season and an aging core of superstars, the Shaq trade could really help free up some money for Phoenix as well as allow them to return to their run and gun offense.
Here is the breakdown:
With O’Neal’s $20 million salary (but a $21 million salary-cap number due to a trade kicker), the trade could save the Suns $9.9 million or even more if Wallace wants a buyout. The trade would save the Suns $3.1 million in payroll and projected luxury tax. Cutting Pavlovic, who has $1.5 million guaranteed in his final contract year’s $4.95 million salary, could save another $6.8 million in payroll and tax.
From a straight basketball perspective this is a home run for the Cavaliers. The Cavs made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals this year but ultimately fell short of their goal of winning a championship. The Cavs were exposed for their lack of a true interior presence. Zydrunas Ilgauskas (whose foot is full of metal plates and screws from multiple surgeries) was nowhere near up to the task of providing a defensive answer to the man-child that is Dwight Howard in the paint.
Adding Shaq to the mix allows Cleveland to match-up with the Howards, the Elton Brands and the KGs of the Eastern Conference. They would immediately have a post presence to go to late in games when Mo Williams‘ and Delonte West’s jump shots aren’t falling.
Lebron James can’t possibly be expected to carry the offensive load every single night can he? Putting Shaq in the middle clogs the lane and gives you a legitimate defensive stopper as well as a more than capable offensive option (60% field goal percentage last season).
As evidenced by his time in Phoenix, Shaq’s biggest defensive flaw might be defending the pick-and-roll. However, he would still command double teams in the post freeing up the rest of the Cav’s shooters. Cleveland, with Shaq and a couple other key additions, would be in great position for a title run next season.
One thing is for sure though. Shaq still has a little diesel left in that huge tank of his.
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