Basketball Free For All

I compiled a quick list of some guys who might be of use in the short term to help your teams this week.  Hopefully everyone is already aware of guys like Toney Douglas, Jrue Holiday and Anthony Tolliver.  Good luck!

Matt Bonner (PF, C – 7%) – His role has increased a bit of late so he could help the deeper league team in a few cat’s but mainly 3’s.

James Harden (PG, SG – 26%) – see Phil’s article.

Chris Hunter (SF/PF/C – 2%) – As Golden State’s only true center still standing, expect Chris to see decent time down the stretch.  On his productive nights, expect points (on great FG%), boards and an occasional block.

Serge Ibaka (C – 5%) – He’s playing with a lot of confidence right now and can help you with boards/blocks.

Kyle Lowry (PG/SG – 9%) – As his ankle has strengthened, he’s gone back to being more effective again.  In addition, Battier continues to miss time to a hyper extended knee.  Kyle will help with points, assists and steals.

Jason Maxiell (PF/C – 23%) – Don’t let his last game scare you off as he got into foul trouble.  By many accounts, Ben Wallace is done so Max will get a lot of run putting up great boards with decent points/blocks.

Wesley Matthews (PG/SG – 12%)/CJ Miles (SG/SF – 13%) – Points, 3’s and steals available here but expectations should be tempered a bit as Andrei Kirilenko is slated to return Friday.

Darko Milicic (PC/C – 12%) – Over his last 4 games, he’s averaging just over 30 minutes.  Boards/blocks are good with decent points and FG%.

James Singleton (SF/PF – 8%) – Flip just stated he’s going to be inserted into the starting lineup.  He’s a rebounding machine but can help in points and defensive categories on certain nights.  Must add for those looking for boards as he’s got a very fantasy friendly schedule down the stretch.

Bill Walker (SG/SF – 8%) – Juicy matchup against PHO and going forward the Knicks play 10 games with Wilson Chandler still sidelined and Tracy McGrady always ready to go down.  With decent run, he’s usually good for points, 3’s and steals.

Earl Watson (PG – 19%) -  TJ Ford continues to miss games so Earl could be a good source of assists/steals with a 3 or two.  However, do so as a last resort as Ford is slated to be back any day now.

Reggie Williams (SF – 19%) – Nellie loves anyone who can put the ball in the hoop and currently Reggie is converting at a very efficient clip (sorry Anthony Morrow owners).  Get his scoring (on good percentages), 3’s and rebounds while he’s still hot!

Week 11 was dominated by the Gilbert Arenas saga finally coming to a head, leaving owners with tough decisions to make about whether to hold or fold their Agent Zero hand. More on that dilemma and the fantasy fallout below. Beyond that, we saw Danny Granger and Troy Murphy return to the starting lineup for the Pacers, altering the fantasy landscape in Indy for the thousandth time this season. Along with the Golden State Warriors, the Pacers have been one of the most unpredictable fantasy teams so far this season.

Season Tracker

The 2009-10 season is 44 percent complete.

Week 12 Schedules

Four Games: DET, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, NOR, NYK, OKC, PHX, SAS, UTA, WAS

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, ORL, PHI, SAC, TOR

Two Games: NJN, POR

Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 38%) For some inexplicable reason, Hinrich is still under the 40% ownership threshold despite being moved into the starting unit recently. In his eight starts this season, Hinrich averaged 12.1 points on .412/.769 percent shooting, 2.1 threes, 4.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Another key statistic to look at with Captain Kirk is his three point percentage, as the Bulls are desperate for outside shooting. As a reserve, he has shot a pedestrian .322 percent from downtown. As a starter, he has shot an impressive .459 from long range. Hinrich deserves pretty much universal roster consideration.

Erick Dampier (C – 37%) For the entire season, Dampier is putting up top-100 value while providing decent production for a third or fourth string center. His season averages are 8.0 points on .667/.582 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.4 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 turnovers. Dampier is a four category specialist (FG%, REB, BLK, TOs) while being a negative in the remaining five categories. He finally appears to be getting healthy again after having to deal with “wear-and-tear” of the left knee. Give Damp a go if you are looking for traditional big man stats and can handle his low scoring.

Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 27%) There has been widespread speculation that Gomes would be moved into Minnesota’s starting five sometime relatively soon. Regardless of whether or not he is starting, Ryan should get enough burn to provide fantasy value, especially for those looking for decent scoring off the waiver wire. Over the past two games, Gomes has averaged 15.0 points on .458/.875 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Gomes, while normally primarily simply a scorer, has shown flashes of stat-stuffing. Add Ryan if you have a dropable player to see if he can improve upon his recent strong play.

Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 21%) Some players just don’t get much respect, whether it be in real life or in fantasy basketball. Apparently, Rasual Butler is one of those players as his actual value and ownership percentage are definitely out of whack. Over the past two weeks, a period that saw Butler play in six games and average over 34 minutes per game, he posted top-50 value. During that period Rasual averaged 12.8 points on .467/.857 percent shooting, 2.5 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. Butler is a nice glue guy, providing a nice boost in threes on low turnovers while also providing decent blocks for a guard-eligible player.

Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 21%) Another player that has had a nice run over the past two weeks is Matt Barnes. You may recall Barnes being featured in last week’s preview article by my distinguished colleague, RedHopeful. Pretty much everything Oleh said then still stands. Over the past two weeks, Matt has averaged 13.4 points on .600/.778 percent shooting,1.1 threes, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.4 turnovers.

Rafer Alston (PG – 18%) Alston has to feel like the luckiest player in the NBA right now; it is an absolute certainty. Rafer was waived by the league’s worst team, the 3-33 New Jersey Nets, and signed with the 18-16 Miami Heat, who are currently the fifth best team in the East. In his first game in a Heat uniform (this season), he immediatley leap-frogged both Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers and joined the starting unit. Skip is in line for big minutes for the Heat and should be a good choice for threes, assists and steals if you can handle his offensive field goal percentage.

Ronny Turiaf (PF/C – 6%) It’s always a gamble recommending any Golden State Warrior these days but Turiaf feels like a very strong player for a couple of reasons. First, Anthony “Everyone’s Favorite Sleeper” Randolph recently went down with an ankle injury with no official timetable released yet. However, the injury appears to be relatively serious so we can assume he’ll miss all of this week’s games. Second, fellow big man Andris Biedrins has struggled getting up to speed since returning from his groin injury that sidelined him for most of the season. By default, Turiaf becomes one of the Warriors primary big men in the rotation and he should be an excellent source of blocks off the wire.

Watch List

J.J. Redick (PG/SG – 16%) With Vince Carter out with an injured shoulder, Redick immediately gets upgraded to watch list status. In Carter’s absence, Redick posted a strong line against the Atlanta Hawks dropping 17 points on .583 percent shooting, 3 threes, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. He has even been praised by Coach Stan Van Gundy recently for his play throughout the entire season. In fact, Redick has been really solid over the past four games seeing over 28 minutes per and averaging 16.5 points on .422/.895 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.5 turnovers.

Flip Murray (SG – 5%) If you are looking for cheap scoring off the waiver wire, there may not be a better option out there than Murray. RIght now, Flip is locked-in and playing excellent basketball for the Bobcats. Over the past week, Ronald is ranked well inside of the top fifty players averaging 17.3 points on .550/.933 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.5 turnovers in four games. His percentages are excellent, making his scoring and threes that much more valuable.

A.J. Price (PG/SG – 1%) A.J. officially proved that he belonged in this league after being selected in the second round of this season’s draft. Price set multiple career-highs against the Thunder on Saturday including minutes played, points scored and threes made. In that watershed game, Price posted 23 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 3 threes, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, o blocks and 2 turnovers. With the Pacers going nowhere this season and both Earl Watson and T.J. Ford playing themselves out of the rotation, Price is poised to carve himself a nice niche for the Pacers.

Deep League Special

Donte Greene (SG/SF – 4%) Greene’s window of opportunity is rapidly closing. With Kevin Martin due back sometime relatively soon, Greene will likely take a hit in touches, minutes and production. Thus, Donte should only be viewed as a short-term band-aid in deeper leagues. Over the past two weeks, he has put up top-100 value, making him an extremely valuable pickup in deep formats. In that same span, he averaged11.4 points on .489/1.00 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.0 turnovers.

Keyon Dooling (PG – 2%) At this point in his career, Dooling is a proven commodity, with a decade of experience in the Association. Playing for a relatively young and inconsistent team, he is a veteran presence on and off the court. While he is still rounding into game shape after having offseason hip surgery, Dooling finally showed signs of life recently when he dropped 21 points on the Hornets on Friday. His career per-36 minute stats are 13.3 points on .420/.798 percent shooting, 1.o threes, 2.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.1 turnovers and are a good guide if Dooling were to consistently get big minutes either due to injury of a teammate or simply due to the inconsistent play of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts.

Jon Brockman (SF/PF – 1%) If awesome nicknames were a fantasy category, the Brockness Monster would be a category carrier. But alas, we are left with having to rely on actual production on the basketball court. In that respect, Brockman’s toughness and football-like build have translated to him being an absolute beast on the boards and earning his fresh nickname (12.8 rebounds per-36 minutes). Recently, Brockman even got the starting nod against Denver pushing teammate and general fantasy disappointment Spencer Hawes to the bench. Grab the rebounding monster if you need help on the glass.

Cut List

Larry Hughes (SG/SF – 39%) The Knicks have won three of their last four games. Hughes has seen four consecutive DNP-CDs. Coincidence? I think not. Larry, welcome to Coach Mike D’Antoni’s dog house. Make yourself comfortable; you’re gonna be here a while.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 20%) It is hard to recommend a player for cutting who posted such nice fantasy value earlier in the season. However, barring a trade involving either Elton Brand or Samuel Dalembert, Speights is most likely going to be without fantasy value. If you want further proof that his run is (for now) over, check out his minute totals for his past four games: 6:22; 9:51; 12:01 and 11:11.

Luther Head (PG/SG – 12%) What a difference a week can make. Last week, he was on our Add List. This week he is on our Cut List. That is Luther Head’s career in a nutshell.

Buy Low

Caron Butler (SG/SF – 98%) With Agent Zero suspended indefinitely, Butler has moved up the food chain a notch in Washington. Butler’s best seasons of fantasy value have come with Arenas on the sidelines so there is hope to believe that he will resume his productive ways of the past (top five in per game value in 2007-08 when Arenas only played 13 games; top 30 in per game in 2008-09 when Arenas only played two games). At this point in the season, Butler has posted only top-75 value so it is a decent bet that he will have a much better second half of the season with Arenas most like done for the year.

Pau Gasol (PF/C – 99%) It may be hard to consider top ten player a buy low but that is exactly the case with Pau. Having missed a decent number of games this season with hamstring injuries on both legs, many owners are getting tired of the Lakers’ kid glove treatment of Gasol. When owners are frustrated or are struggling in the standings, you can often get a good deal for the right player. Throw out a solid second-round talent for Pau and see if the other owner bites. You may end up with one of the best big men in both fantasy and in real life.

Sell High

Samuel Dalembert (C – 64%) The problem with selling high is that nobody wants to do it because owning a hot player is so much fun. It’s why we play fantasy sports. However, with a guy like Sammie, if you can get enough value for him you have to pull the trigger. Over the past two weeks, Dally has been a top five talent. Stop and let that sink in. TOP FIVE. During that span, he has averaged 10.9 points on .667/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 3.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. He will never be able to keep this pace up for the rest of the season, especially not with Eddie Jordan waiting in the wings to screw everything up. SD is the qunitessential sell high right now.

Lamar Odom (SF/PF – 89%) With Pau out for at least one more game, your window to move Odom for maximum value is limited. Over the past week, Odom has been positively beastly, putting up a rugged 14.0 points on .548/.700 percent shooting, 0.8 threes, 15.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.0 turnover. Wow. In that span of four games, Odom has been a top ten player in per game value so throw out some trade offers and see if you can get a bona fide stud in return for Mr. Kardashian.

Mystery Man

Gilbert Arenas (PG – 73%) At only 73 percent ownership, the Great Arenas Exodus of 2010 has begun. Let’s face it, the chances of Gilbert playing again this season are slim. However, it is not so cut and dried as to whether he should be simply kicked to the curb; thus, Agent Zero is this week’s Mystery Man. In standard sized, non-keeper, head-to-head leagues Arenas can probably be safely dropped at this point. In roto leagues, where it is easier to carry dead weight, it probably makes sense to stick it out with Gil for a bit until we have more concrete timelines. In deeper formats, it makes more sense to hang on to Gibert if your team can afford to maintain a dead roster spot. Finally, in keeper and dynasty formats, dropping Arenas is not recommended until we hear exactly how harsh his final punsihment will be. Gilbert’s future with the Wizards and the League is truly a mystery at this point so weigh your options carefully before you decide to part ways with this dynamic guard.

Plonden gets two thumbs up for being able to peer into the future.  No, not for making any solid picks, but rather realizing we could use another writer or two around here.  Haha!  Honestly, we both happened to be without solid computer access for most of the week – hey it’s the holidays, right?  For this, we apologize but we vow to get back to posting multiple articles every week.

Ok, on to the good stuff!  Hopefully, some of you were able to nab Leandro Barbosa, Yi Jianlian, Jameer Nelson or Tyrus Thomas returning from injury.  If not, keep on reading then as you probably have a need to replace some dead wood on your rosters.

Week Ten Schedules

Four Games:  CHA, CLE, IND, LAL, MIN, NYK, OKC, PHI, SAC, SAS

Three Games:  ATL, BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, MEM, MIA, MIL, NJN, NOH, ORL, PHO, POR, TOR, UTA, WAS

Two Games:  DET, LAC

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

DeJuan Blair (SF/PF/C – 11%) – Everyone’s favorite preseason rookie is finally getting minutes including a season high of 35 against the Knicks this past Sunday.  Apparently not everyone has jumped all over him yet so check your leagues now.  His per 36 numbers are fantastic – close to 60 FG%, 14.6 points, 13 rebounds, .9 steals and 1.3 blocks.

James Harden (PG/SG – 38%) – The last 6 games, James is averaging just about 28 minutes a game.  Over that time span, he’s averaging 13.2 points, 1 3ptm/steal, 3.7 boards, 2.2 assists and 1.2 TO’s.  It appears his role will be consistent going forward so expect these numbers to remain (in case you’re wondering, ziguana has him ranked 87th the last 12 days which includes the dismal 41.7 FG%).

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 29%) – Soon to be fired Vinnie Del Negro has put Kirk into the starting lineup (not that it really mattered considering he’s been over 30 minutes a game since his return from injury).  Over the last 5 games, Kirk has averaged 11 points, 1.6 3ptm, 4.6 boards and 3.8 assists.  It’ll be interesting to see what a new coach decides to do, but he’s worth owning at least in the interim as he’s admitted he’s more comfortable in a starting role.

Juwan Howard (SF/PF/C – 10%) – With Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla done for the year, Juwan has been pushed into a prominent role.  Most likely, the Blazers will pick up another big man but in the meantime give him a look for solid FG% and good rebounding.  Since becoming a starter, he’s put up 8.7 points, 10 boards on 54 FG%.

Brandon Rush (SG/SF – 22%) – Him again?!?  Unfortunately yes.  First, he’s looking at a four game week so regardless of the subpar play, he should be able to put up useful numbers over the course of the week.  Second, both Mike Dunleavy (sufferring from lack of strength in his legs) and Dahntay Jones (return to mediocrity?)  have been awful.  Look for him to continue to get solid minutes contributing 3’s/steals/blocks with decent boards at his position.  Naturally, be aware he’ll most likely hurt your team’s %’s.

CUT LIST

Tyson Chandler (C – 44%) – If Tyson hadn’t given you a reason to kick him to the WW with his substandard play thusfar this season, his latest stress reaction in his foot probably should.  Considering he struggled with foot problems the past season and he still hasn’t felt 100% after offseason surgery, there is a good chance it’ll linger well into the rest of this season.

Tracy McGrady (SG/SF – 62%) – It should be obvious the Rockets and Tmac are and will not be on the same page for the rest of the season.  The Rockets decided to sit him down for a few games so he left the team to spend time with his family (uh, ok).  Prior to this, he wasn’t seeing even 8 minutes a game.  Time for everyone the end their love affair with him as it’s completely up in the air when his situation will improve whether through a trade or a Rocket’s injury.

WATCH LIST

Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 30%) – Ryan gets the “watch list” treatment because it’s unsure how significant his production will be going forward.  Prior to his really solid stretch just prior to his injury, he was largely an inconsistent mess.  Considering the Wolves won 3 of the 6 games he missed (and Damien Wilkins hasn’t been all that bad), I can’t see Rambis thrusting him into any prominent role.

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 10%) – I know Plonden told you to cut him a week ago, but you’ve at least got to put him back on your radar.  The Pacer’s could very well be considered the worst team in the league at the moment as they’ve lost 6 in a row including two embarrassing losses in their last 2 games.  Consequently, I could see the Pacers start off loading some of their higher salary players, but none more so than Troy Murphy.  No Troy means excellent minutes and production from Tyler (if you can stomach the FG%) – 36 minute per – 17.5 points, 9.6 boards, 1.2 steals with only 1.6 TO’s.

Serge Ibaka (C – 3%) – Allowing a pass in the Thunder’s last game, Serge has been playing admirably well.  In a four game stretch, he’s seen a little over 24 minutes a game and averaged 10.5 points, 8.5 boards, 1.2 blks on 62 FG%.  I expect his role to remain pretty solid as both Nenad Krstic and Nick Collison lack a lot of ability necessary many a night against NBA competition.

C.J. Miles (SG/SF – 4%) – Yeah I know he’s been horrid his last 2 games (2 for 15 FG’s), but don’t give up hope yet.  The Jazz need his production as Wesley Matthews will be more inconsistent going forward while Kyle Korver is still having knee problems.  I expect Miles to be a good source of points, 3’s and steals this week as the Jazz face the Wolves, Thunder and Nuggets.

Earl Watson (PG – 6%) – Another complete failure the last 2 games, Earl should be given a chance for at least this upcoming week (as I mentioned the Pacers are looking at a 4 game week).  Considering TJ Ford has all but been written off by Jim O’Brien, Mr. Watson has a good chance to rebound as the coach relies on a veteran leader to help the Pacers turn about their recent woeful play.  Expect solid 3’s, assists and steals out of him against the Bulls, Grizzlies, Wolves and Knicks.

STAY THE COURSE

Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 50%) – Hitting only 4 out of his past 24 field goals, will make you want to drop Ersan faster than a hot potato, but I ask you to reconsider the notion for 3 reasons.  One, his opportunity won’t be taken away as  the Bucks aren’t going anywhere fast so they’ll stick with their youth.  Two, he’s got Hakim Warrick behind him.  Three, team leaders Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut are as brittle as they come.

Marreesse Speights (PF/C – 34%) – After a 28/9 performance against the Clippers, Marreesse appears to have gone on hiatus (4.5 points, 4 boards the last 2 games).  This might be a nice opportunity for you to jump on him as some owner has lost the faith but you shouldn’t.  Besides his fantastic ability, he is too good of a fit under Eddie Jordan so expect a return to strong numbers in the near future.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Nazr Mohammed (C – 4%) – If Nazr is available, nab him in deep leagues.  While Tyson Chandler is slated to only miss a week, I expect his foot to hold him back much longer.  In the meantime, expect similar production to his last 2 game averages of 14 points, 8.5 boards, 1 steal/board with excellent FG% and TO numbers.

Jeff Pendergraph (SF/PF – 0%) – Until the Blazer’s are able to bring in another big man, Jeff will be relied on to assist Juwan Howard down the low.  Scary, I know but he’s worth a look for some extra points, rebounds and defensive numbers all done in an efficient manner (based on summer league production).

MYSTERY MAN

Delonte West (PG/SG – 20%) – In keeping with last week’s new category, is there anyone more worthy of a mention?  To start the year, it wasn’t even certain when, if at all, he’d be back on the court.  Now that he is racking up more 20+ minute games than DNP’s, the question is will he achieve any consistency to be worth owning in the average fantasy league – especially in the 3 point category (1 made 3 the entire month!!!)?  I say yes.  As he and his teammates continue to acclimate to one another, his role will likely increase.  After all, the Cav’s have won 9 of their last 10 and it can be argued he was their second most valuable player last season.  In addition, it’s no surprise confidence is the last thing he needs to achieve (the motorcycle stunt and his wrist injury).  However, it’s getting there as both the coach and teammates are noticing.

Week Eight brought it’s fair share of drama and story lines on the court. On the injury front, a group of players eaither came back from injury early or announced their intention to return from injury early (see below). On the bizarre injury front, Dirk Nowitzki’s elbow had an appointment with five of Carl Landry’s teeth, with Dirk walking away with pieces of Carl’s teeth lodged in his elbow. That injury sounds excruciating for both players, who were both coincidentally having phenomenal seasons.Hopefully these guys make it back from injury quickly and resume their productive ways on the court.

HOUSEKEEPING

Basketball Free For All is looking for a few good men or women to join the crew. Specifically, we are looking for new writers to contribute on a weekly basis. If you read BFFA regularly you should know the skills required: knowledge of statistics, general basketball knowledge, fantasy basketball knowledge, quality writing skills, a willingness to question commonly held views and being awesome in general. If you are interested in inquiring further, shoot me an email at plonden [at] basketballfreeforall.com (obviously replacing [at] with @ before you send the email) and we’ll talk specifics. Also, we would obviously welcome others with unique skills (web skills, programming, statistics, marketing, business, whatever) who are interested in contributing to the Free For All so just inquire if you are interested.

WEEK NINE SCHEDULES

Two Games: CHA, MEM, NJN, NOR, PHI, TOR

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHI, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, LAL, MIA, MIL, MIN, NYK, OKC, ORL, POR, SAC, UTA, WAS

Four Games: CLE, HOU, IND, LAC, PHO, SAS

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)

Joel Przybilla (C – 39%) As a starter, Przybilla has averaged 5.7 points on .500/.625 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.5 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers. His offensive efficiency has nose-dived this season but his defense is just as good if not better than last season. His mass alone will keep him on the court this season so give Ghostface Przybilla a look for blocks and boards.

Marreese Speights (PF/C – 26%) If one thing is certain in Philly, it is that Speights is the type of big man that excels in Eddie Jordan’s offensive system. Speights has picked up right where he left off since returning from his MCL injury. Over his past three games, Marreese has posted extremely solid averages of 19.7 points on .468/.682 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 7.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.7 turnovers, effectively crushing the previously burgeoning fantasy value of Samuel Dalembert, who played 14.7 minutes per game during the same span (although foul trouble played a role as well). Your window to sell high on Dally has been effectively closed until he gets moved or an injury to another Sixers big man occurs. The only downside is the Philadelphia only plays two games next week, although it is mitigated by the fact that Speights is an excellent pickup for the long-term.

C.J. Watson (PG/SG – 18%) Over the past two weeks, Watson has been a top fifty player, which has been extremely surprising. The odds are greatly stacked against C.J. being able to produce at such a high level for the remainder of the season, as the Warriors offense is run almost exclusively through Monta Ellis. For evidence, check out Watson’s usage percentage of a mere 14.0 percent compared to Ellis’ 29.4 usage percentage. As a result, Watson’s steals (1.5 per game this season and 2.0 per game over the past two weeks) make up the lion’s share of his fantasy value so give Watson an add if you are looking for a low turnover steal specialist.

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 13%) So far, Casspi has proven to be one of the early surprises of the 2009 NBA Draft for the Sacramento Kings. Based on his recent strong play, Omri has moved into the Kings’ starting lineup and looks to remain there at least until Kevin Martin returns from his wrist injury. For an idea of what his numbers would look like if given extended burn, check his per-36 minute averages of 17.3 points on .513/.577 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 5.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.4 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. As the season has progressed, Casspi has also improved each month from the free throw line, meaning his early struggles from the line were probably confidence-related and that we can expect continued improvement over time.

Jose Juan Barea (PG – 12%) In his fourth season in the NBA, Barea is posting career-highs across the board. Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle has noticed, increasing J.J.’s minutes largely at the expense of rookie guard Rodrigue Beaubois, who has the physical tools to carve out a nice role for himself in this league one day. Over the past four games, Barea has averaged 16.3 points on .553/.857 percent shooting, 1.8 threes, 2.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers per game. Players that are putting up over fifteen points per game don’t wallow on the wire for very long so grab J.J. and hope his hot hand can continue.

WATCH LIST

Jerryd Bayless (PG – 9%) In true Arizonan fashion, Bayless dropped the best line of his short NBA career against the Phoenix Suns last Thursday, while doing his part to push the Suns winless streak on TNT to 17 games. On Thursday, Bayless put up 29 points in a game that ended up being decided by only two points. Without a doubt, he is a big part of why the short-handed Blazers upset the Suns. The following game, Bayless saw his minutes increased to over thirty minutes against Orlando. Most notably, Jerryd played more minutes than Steve Blake. In short, Bayless is on his way to becoming a big time scorer. For reference, check his per-36 minute stats of 21.7 points on .530/.764 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 3.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks and 1.9 turnovers. The one thing that jumps out is that Bayless has poor defensive statistics and subpar threes for a guard. This combination does not bode well for fantasy value, as elite guards usually need to do more than simply score in order to maintain their fantasy value.

Kyle Lowry (PG/SG – 8%) Lowry qualifies for the watch list this week based upon his monster line against the Mavericks on Friday even though he put up a stinker on Saturday. Lowry’s line was so impressive, it bears repeating here to marvel. With Landry out with the aforementioned dental injury, Lowry stepped up and dropped 26 points on .615/.778 percent shooting, 3 threes, 6 rebounds, 10 assists, 5 steals, 1 block and 2 turnovers. If only there were some way to predict when these random epic fantasy lines were going to occur? That, my friends, is the proverbial fantasy holy grail, the pursuit of which is a quixotic mission. Just remember to run to the wire and pickup Lowry if Aaron Brooks ever misses significant time.

Earl Watson (PG – 4%) Watson has moved ahead of T.J. Ford on the Pacers depth chart, stealing the starting point guard honors from Ford on Saturday night. With the Pacers struggling this season and missing franchise player, Danny Granger, lineup shakeups were to be expected. Monitor the situation closely over the next week and move Watson from the watch list to your roster should the upward trend on his minutes continue and he produces in his time on the floor. That second caveat was necessary after Earl’s 3 point, 5 rebound, 5 assist showing on Saturday night. Worst case scenario, the Pacers point guard spot will be a time share with Ford and Watson killing each other’s value.

Dorell Wright (SG/SF – 3%) Over the past few games Wright has finally started to turn his potential into production. Wright has been (incorrectly) picked as a breakout player over the last couple of years but has been derailed by a series of injuries. Recently, however, Wright has finally been putting everything together and has been seeing increasing minutes as a result. Over the past five games, Wright has played 27.8 minutes per game posting averages of 13.2 points on .583/1.00 percent shooting, 1.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.8 blocks and 0.4 turnovers. Wright has been doing two things on the court that really make coaches happy, notably playing active defense and taking care of the ball.

Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 26%) Captain Kirk has never been the most efficient scorer on the floor, but he certainly has never had such a terrible shooting season like he has this year. However, Hinrich’s early troubles this season were strongly related to his thumb injury from November and are thus not just a regular shooters’ slump. With the Bulls in desperate need of three point shooting (28th in three point percentage, 30th in both three pointer made and attempted), Hinrich should earn his keep from downtown, as he is a career .377 percent shooter from behind the arc. Don’t expect elite fantasy production from Kirk at this point but more outings similar to his game against the Hawks on Saturday night are on the horizon: 13 points on .556/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 0 turnovers.

C.J. Miles (SG/SF – 3%) Miles has had an up and down season thus far, which started terribly after tearing a ligament in his thumb. While he was out, rookie guard Wesley Matthews stepped up and played well for the Jazz causing speculation that Miles’ starting job was lost for good. However, Miles recently showed up and played an instrumental role for the Jazz in securing a win against the Bobcats on Saturday night. Miles dropped 20 points on .500/.500 percent shooting, 3 threes, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks and 1 turnover. Most notably, Miles topped the 30 minute mark for the first time this season with the undrafted Matthews only seeing seven minutes of game time despite getting the starting nod. With another performance or two like last night’s, Miles will be scooped off the wire in most leagues.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jared Jeffries (SG/SF – 3%) Like Chuck Hayes at the start of this season, Jeffries’ fantasy line is not fashionable but rather purely functional. JJ is a nice player that is essentially a defensive specialist, especially if you are punting points or are already dominant in points and can carry a negative contributer for scoring. As he is being showcased for potential trades, Jeffries has logged 33.3 minutes per game over the past two weeks and has averaged 2.3 steals and 1.3 blocks over the same span. Again, Jared should only be added in deep leagues that are looking to beef up the defensive categories.

Goran Dragic (PG/SG – 1%) Second year Slovenian point guard Goran Dragic looks to finally be getting comfortable playing basketball at the NBA level. In the past week, Dragic played the best basketball of his career against the Suns’ arch-nemesis (setting a career high 18 points against the team that drafted him), the San Antonio Spurs. Most impressively, Dragic played tough defense holding Spurs shooting guard Manu Ginobili to only seven points while also visibly frustrating him. With the Suns making a long home stand and being the only undefeated team at home in the NBA, Dragic should see increased burn during both close games and garbage time.

Serge Ibaka (C – 1%) Ibaka’s minutes are trending upward as this season progresses, as he has really impressed Coach Scott Brooks with his hustle when given playing time. Over the past couple of games, Ibaka has been given nearly 23 minutes per game and has responded with a decent fantasy line of 11 points on .786/0.00 percent shooting (on zero free throw attempts), 0.0 threes, 6.5 rebounds, 0.0 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.5 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. Ibaka is largely specialized in the big man categories but could really pile up the blocks if given enough PT (2.6 blocks per 36 minutes). For deep dynasty leagues, Ibaka is a player that should probably be rostered at this point based upon his potential alone.

Jonathan Bender (SF/PF – 0%) Taken fifth overall out of high school in the 1999 NBA Draft, Bender has widely been recognized as one of the biggest draft busts in the NBA as knee injuries cut his career short. Nearly four years later, Bender is back and is playing for the New York Knicks. In his first game back in the NBA, Bender put up 9 points on .500/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 2 rebounds, 1 assist, o steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. With zero percent ownership, Bender is available everywhere and should be monitored to see if he can flourish and make the cut for Coach Mike D’Antoni’s short rotation.

COMING BACK FROM INJURY

Lou Williams (PG/SG – 41%) He’s baaack and way ahead of schedule to boot. In his first game back he played over 23 minutes although admittedly showing his rust on the court. It was reported that Williams lost a few pounds while on his liquid diet (courtesy of Antawn Jamison). Look for Williams to return to the starting unit soon and get back on track with his breakout season. Based upon his early season play, he should not be on a single waiver wire.

Tyrus Thomas (SF/PF – 39%) TT is targeting a December 26th return to game action after fracturing his arm in a weightlifting accident. He is slated to return to practice today so pay attention to any updated timelines in the next couple of days.

Leandro Barbosa (PG/SG – 53%) Merry Christmas! Barbosa is planning on returning to game action on December 25th against the Clippers, nearly a full month after he severely sprained his ankle against the Raptors. Barbosa was finally starting to string a few solid games together when he went down so look for him to resume his strong play sometime in early January.

Yi Jianlian (PF – 21%) Out since early November with an MCL injury, Yi is slated to return to game action this Wednesday against Minnesota. His retun was delayed a couple of weeks after a vicious Sean Williams elbow during practice that required 50 stitches. Hopefully, the elbow was a blessing in disguise as it kept Jianlian sidelined a bit longer and made sure his MCL injury was fully healed to prevent further injury. Yi is cruising dangerously close to earning the “injury-prone” label, which is stigma that is not easily erased.

STAY THE COURSE

Tyson Chandler – (C – 46%) It’s hard to understate how disappointing Tyson has been this season. His season averages of 6.5 points on .490/.727 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 6.8 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 2.2 turnovers. The jump in turnovers was expected, as he is no longer playing with the game’s best point guard, Chris Paul. However, no one was expecting such a dramatic drop-off in almost every other category. Recently, he pulled down twelve or more rebounds in two of his past three games. After being called out by his teammates for his lack of heart and lack of effort, look for Chandler to respond to the challenge and pickup his subpar play.

Courtney Lee (SG/SF – 53%) Widely touted as a breakout player or sleeper before this season started, New Jersey’s Courtney Lee has had an unusual season playing for the league’s worst team. Don’t give up on this young swingman and expect his season averages of 11.0 points on .381/.810 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.0 turnovers to increase. Lee’s shooting efficiency has suffered greatly from his move from a deep and talented team to a thin and awful team has caused opposing defenses to turn greater attention to forcing him to take bad shots. However, his low turnovers coupled with nice steal numbers have made Lee a decent options for teams that can handle his poor shooting.

Anthony Morrow (SG/SF – 62%) One of the league’s best pure shooters has suddenly lost his stroke. Since missing time for a funeral, A-Mo has gone absolutely frigid from the field. On the season, he is shooting a respectable .487 from the field,  a scorching .462 from downtown and an elite .900 from the free throw line. Morrow has serious .500/.400/.900 potential. Over the past six games, however, Anthony has shot a miserable .268/.292/1.00. Hey, at least his free throws are still falling. Being a pure shooter, Morrow will come around doing what he does best: hoisting ‘em at the rim.

CUT LIST

Tyler Hansbrough (SF/PF – 12%) Psycho T has proven a lot in his short NBA career. Most importantly, he has proven to the doubters that he will be an effective player at the NBA level one day. However, he has proven that he has not developed the go-to moves necessary to be an efficient scorer in the Association. These moves will come in time, as Hansbrough has proven to be a relentless worker during his tenure at North Carolina and with the Pacers. However, outside of teams that are punting field goal percentage, Tyler’s .372 percent shooting from the field on 8.2 attempts per game is too crippling for widespread roster consideration.

Anderson Varejao (PF/C – 47%) Sideshow Bob’s fantasy value tends to go the way of his defensive production. AV’s real life and fantasy value never has and never will be predicated on his offensive production. Instead, his value comes from boards, blocks and steals. Recently, his rebounds have stayed somewhat stable but his blocks and steals have dried up, crippling his worth to fantasy teams.

MYSTERY MAN

Mario Chalmers (PG – 61%) This week sees another first for the Preview post: the Mystery Man selection. And there is no better player to be the inaugural Mystery Man than Miami’s Mario Chalmers. Heading into this season after a surprisingly strong rookie season that saw Chalmers post top-75 per game value and nearly top-50 cumulative value, Chalmers has disappointed virtually across the board. A sophomore slump, perhaps? Not only has he failed to progress in multiple categories, but he has actually regressed as well, most notably in steals (from 2.0 last season to 1.5 this season), which accounted for the vast majority of Mario’s fantasy value last season. As a result, Chalmers has recently been demoted to the second unit and his play has even caused speculation that Mario is not the point guard of the future for Miami. The next few games and weeks will be pivotal for Chalmer’s fantasy value this season so this is definitely a very interesting situation to monitor. How this position battle between Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo plays out remains a mystery for now.

This is the second installment of BFFA’s injury risk series for the upcoming season (now only days away). As in Part One, the same disclaimers apply; not all in injury prone players will be covered and the criteria to determine who is an injury risk is not an exact science. Let’s take a look at a couple of Eastern Conference point guards in the latest edition of Injury Risks.

First up is New Jersey floor general Devin Harris. Harris burst onto the fantasy scene last year after being a backup in Dallas for a number of years. In his first full season as a starter for the Nets, Devin provided an extremely potent stat line for his fantasy owners, averaging 21.3 points on .438/.820 percent shooting, 0.9 threes, 6.9 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 0.2 blocks and 3.1 turnovers. This year he is definitely not under the radar anymore and will be gone by the end of the second round in most leagues (Buser Sports average draft position of 18th overall and 24th in Yahoo! drafts). His production and value cannot be questioned but his ability to stay on the court can be.

Its only preseason but the past few weeks the word out of New Jersey has been that Harris has already been bothered by a few minor injuries. Currently, Harris is rehabbing a strained groin muscle sustained on Tuesday, which should keep him out a game or two of preseason action. He has also rolled his right ankle and sprained his left ankle already this preseason.

So for those of you keeping track, this is injury number three before we have even begun playing games that matter. Speaking recently about his injuries, Harris seems to be almost content to just be injured for an unspecified time, almost as if he is used to being hurt.

“I can only control what I can control on the floor,” Harris said of his reputation for being injury-prone. “Things happen. I don’t know why they happen. You put all the time in the summer. Sometimes nagging things happen.”

And as for his occasional tendency to turn the art of basketball into demolition derby, he replied, “That’s my thing. That’s just what I do. That’s how I play. I enjoy doing it. I enjoy the contact…”Small nagging ones like this, no,” Harris said. “Usually I’m like the big hurt.”

Source: New Jersey Star-Ledger

It seems like he is warming fans up to the idea that he is definitely not going to be playing anywhere near 82 games this season. His ability to be a fantasy standout comes from his quickness and his agility, which allows him to blow by opposing guards get into the lane and either score or earn a trip to the charity stripe. He is not an elite shooter (career 45 percent from the field), so his tendency for ankle and hamstring injuries really limits his explosiveness and therefore his effectiveness.

He has only played in 80 games only once in his five year career (his third season, 2006-07). This came after missing 26 games the previous season including 24 of which that were directly attributable to  strained right quadriceps. The past two seasons he has played in 64 and 69 games, an average of 66.5 games per season. That is an awfully low average for a number one point guard and could easily put your hopes of having a shiny fantasy trophy in jeopardy.

The next injury risk we will be touching on in this installment is another small-ish point guard, T.J. Ford. This year, Ford has a new lease on life. He no longer has to share the point guard duties with Jarrett Jack, who was shipped to Toronto (although Earl Watson was acquired). This season, the Pacers are his team to run and he seems ready to make full use of his new-found health and permanent starter status.

Ford had a career year last season while splitting time at the point with Jack; he averaged 14.9 points on .452/.872 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 5.3 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.4 turnovers. He also managed to stay healthy and played in 74 games, the second most of his career (he played in 75 his third season). He is slowly moving up draft boards this year (Buser Sports average draft position of 94.2) and is a highly targeted middle tier PG.

With his new-found starter status comes some fantasy disclaimers. Ford has a long list of very serious health problems to consider before drafting. He is afflicted with a condition known as spinal stenosis, which is a narrowing of the openings of the vertebra the spinal cord runs through. This condition causes a great amount of inflammation and pain in the back, obviously not good for a professional basketball player. This condition attributed to Ford missing the playoffs and the final 26 games of his rookie season in Milwaukee after he suffered a bruised spinal cord.

His other injuries are numerous. He went on to miss his entire sophomore campaign while recovering from neck surgery in 2004-05. He missed six games in ‘07 as the result of a “stinger” sustained to his left arm after colliding with Josh Howard. Then in December of 2007 while playing with the Raptors, Ford was the recipient of a hard flagrant foul by Al Horford which caused his head to be slammed into the court. Ford missed almost two months recovering from his injury, allowing Jose Calderon to slip in and pilfer his starting spot and gain widespread fantasy fame.

Coming off of one his most productive seasons in his career (2006-07 season was very solid as well), look for T.J. Ford to be healthy and ready to step in as full time starter. But with such a fragile frame (listed at 6′0 165 lbs.) and extensive injury history, even the smallest collision could lead to long-term injury. For that reason, Ford will be a lifetime member of the injury-prone club. Buyer beware.