Basketball Free For All

With yet another NBA trade deadline coming and going, a lot of excitement and hope was generated among the fans and media.  Some teams were looking for that final piece that makes them championship material.  Others simply were looking for a player that helps them get into the postseason.  Lastly, there were a few who look at this time of the year as the highlight of the season as their team struggles to even be competitive on a nightly basis so might as well position themselves for the upcoming lottery.  Whatever the reasons, all fans hoped their team would have made a trade or two that improved future prospects.  Question is, how often can these deadline deals really be coined successful?

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Everything that follows is said with the utmost respect, as a true fan of Amare Stoudemire and the Phoenix Suns. After all, he has recovered from both the dreaded microfracture and an even more devastating freak eye injury, either of which would probably cause some players to consider retirement. The guy has been through a lot in his eight years of service on the front lines of the NBA. That’s what makes everything that has to be said that much more difficult.

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Coming into this NBA season, the New Jersey Net’s expectations were low.  However, no one expected them to challenge ineptitude of historic proportions.  The Nets recent loss to the Dallas Mavericks resulted in being associated with the distinct dishonor of the worst start by any franchise in NBA history.  Worse than any expansion team or some historical bad franchise like the Clippers.  Even though they’ve recently broken through with a win, will putting their worst leg(s) forward hurt the team beyond this season?

Just How Bad Have Things Been?

To put it bluntly, the Nets have been awful.  They have the worst offensive rating (94.7), the worst points per game (87.60), the worst FG% (41.0) and the worst assists (16.25).  Most of their losses haven’t even been close as their point differential stands a little over 10 points per game (only Minnesota is worse).

To be fair, at one point they only had one original starter available for a period of time.  Devin Harris, Yi Jianlian, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Courtney Lee have all missed time for various aliments.  One of these players, CDR, was the first NBA player infected with the swine flu.  Prior to their first win against Charlotte, this foursome had missed 34 games out of a possible 72.  Don’t forget that it takes time to get back into the swing of things such as chemistry and conditioning.

Can’t also discount they’ve had some key role players miss the majority of the season:  Tony Battie, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes and Eduardo Najera.  Without a solid bench, it’s no wonder this patchwork team has been tragic against the rest of the NBA.  The New Jersey Nets probably wish they had as many healthy legs as their cheerleaders.

Did Management Stoke the Fire?

Coming into the season, the Nets had no established veterans – star or even borderline.  Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter had all been traded away.  However, a number of followers and writers proclaimed this was a good thing.  New Jersey had some promising young talent including a potentially fantastic PG and C.  More importantly, they would have about 25 million in available cap space for 2010.  As you’re probably aware, there are some fantastic names that may be available in free agency including Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire.

There does lie a problem with this thinking – it’s a year away.  For 2009, most experts predicted they’d finish at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.  Nothing new here as I’m sure most of us felt the same.  With obvious turmoil looming, why then was Lawrence Frank fired?

I guess it’s Lawrence’s fault that they wanted to go young and [clear] cap space and that everybody got hurt,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said Sunday night, before his team beat another one that is dangerously walking the 2010 tightrope, the Knicks.  “Maybe he was banging them up in practice, taking a baseball bat to them or something.  I just know that with the lineups he’s had to put on the floor, I don’t think any coach would’ve done anything better than he’s done.”

Source:  CBS Sports

Pretty hard to disagree with Stan’s assessment when considering the roster and all the injuries they’ve had to deal with thusfar.  However, were there issues going on out of the public eye?  Apparently, yes.

Sources said Nets management had come to believe that Frank had lost much of the team, a fact that has played out in losses to Denver and Sacramento in the past week. Once the Nets played so poorly against the Kings – believed to be the most winnable game on the trip – management decided it could no longer go on with Frank as coach.

Despite the return of point guard Devin Harris and shooting guard Courtney Lee, the Nets have played long stretches of uninspired basketball. “Most of the guys have tuned him out,” one source with direct knowledge of the locker room environment said. “This isn’t all Lawrence’s fault, but everyone knows that this can’t go on anymore.”

Source: Adrian Wojnarowski

Beat writers close to the Nets also observed that Frank and Devin Harris were not seeing eye to eye.

“In the times I’ve been here, I’ve been so (angry) because of a lack of effort,” Frank said last week. “But these guys are giving virtually everything they’ve got.”

But they didn’t give him the effort lately and he had to go. Now, the next coach will have to coax more team play out of Devin Harris, who had problems with Frank’s controlling style and has gained the reputation of being a solo act.

“Last year we had Vince Carter and he was a positive influence on the young guys,” said one team official. “But he’s not here, and it hurts because the coach and point guard are not on the same page.”

Source:  Mitch Lawrence

Consequently, it’s not surprising the Nets let Frank go.  At least, they fired him before they set the all-time record so that his name wouldn’t have to be associated with it.

Therefore, on the surface, it would seem they’ve made the correct moves.  There is one thing still bothering me though.  Did they consider the consequences if this team loses too many games?

Will a really bad record have long term effects?

We’ll examine two aspects to gauge possible long term affect:

1) How historically poor teams fare with rosters primarily consisting of talented youth in following years.

2) How many big time free agents signed with historically bad teams in following seasons.

1) First, we’ll examine how promising teams reacted to severely disappointing seasons.  Specifically, we’ll look at the 1993-94 Dallas Mavericks, 1999-00 Chicago Bulls and the 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers.  These teams were chosen because they were all in the midst of serious rebuilding with promising youth with a significant stretch of poor play.

The 1993-94 Mavericks team finished with a 13-69 record, but they were best known for posting a 2-39 record (OUCH) through the midpoint of the season.  The team wasn’t completely devoid of talent as they had two promising but young 19 point scorers in Jim Jackson and Jamal Mashburn.  So how dire did it get?

You hear about it and read about it, but words cannot really describe the hopelessness down here. At one point last night, the Dallas Mavericks called a 20-second timeout and spent a good 15 seconds trudging back to the huddle, defeated.

At courtside, owner Donald Carter sat in his hideous shirt and his jeans and his 10-gallon hat, cheering his team wildly while it was 15 down. The latest news? Jimmy Jackson says he’ll never, ever, EVER sign with the Mavs, no matter how many faxes they send.

Source:  Encyclopedia.com

Well Jim ended up staying (contracts will do that to you), but the Mavericks continued to flounder by averaging close to a 27-55 record the next 4 years.  This is impressive despite drafting win-producer Jason Kidd.  It seemed that the 3 J’s were destined to be part of a great future, but this wasn’t the case.  In 1996-97, all three were traded away as the team decided to go in a new direction under Don Nelson.

The 1999-00 Chicago Bulls finished with a 17-65 record, a few seasons removed from the Jordan era.  The team did have some promising rookies in Elton Brand and Ron Artest while bringing in John Starks and Bruce Bowen after trading away Toni Kukoc during the season.  The following season the Bulls drafted/acquired Brad Miller, Jamal Crawford, Marcus Fizer and Ron Mercer, but this time they won only 15 games including losing a franchise worst 21 straight games on the road.

Overall, the promise never amounted to anything as the team averaged a 22-60 during the four year stretch after the 1999-2000 season.  The overriding theme seemed to be concentrating on youth without enough experience as they fell into a pattern gambling on youth that failed to pan out including Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler and Jay Williams.

The 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers were able to collect some talent after two horrendous years.  However, Lamar Odom, Derek Anderson, Maurice Taylor and Michael Olowokandi only managed 15 wins while starting the season with a then NBA record of 17 straight losses.

On paper, this team’s untapped talent and balance — four players averaging more than 13 points per game, and arguably the largest collection of “he’s-got-great-upside” players — belies its results.

Source: NBA.com

In the following years, they garnered an impressive amount of talent on paper: Darius Miles, Quentin Richardson, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand and Andre Miller.  Guess what, all these young guys managed to contribute an average W/L record of 31-51 the following four years.

Now, there have been some deviations from the norm when franchises have decided to completely entrust their future in youth.  Namely, the Portland Trail Blazers come to mind.  After blowing up the Jail Blazers and some troubling players the next few years, they appear to be ready to challenge the league’s best for years to come.  However, it would appear it takes a special bunch of players like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge among others to make it happen.

Therefore, where does this leave the current Nets?  Coming into this year, there were no illusions, but there was hope that the Nets had put together a solid young core.  However, Dave Berri of The Wages of Win Journal made an interesting analysis of the Net’s franchise.  Basically, when Jason Kidd has not been on their team, they’ve been a bad team and his predictions don’t have anything changing that.

In addition, their terrible start is already affecting their morale:

“We don’t have any heart,” Chris Douglas-Roberts, the second-year guard, said. “It’s like we’re laying down. Weak. It’s a sign of weakness.”

Douglas-Roberts said the word was out on his team: “All you got to do is come out, punch them in the mouth and they’ll give up and run with their tail between their legs.”

Although the Nets were decimated by injuries early in the streak, they are nearly back to whole. Yet the fight they briefly showed in close defeats in early November is nonexistent.

“The spirit’s been broken a little bit,” said guard Devin Harris, the Nets’ lone All-Star.

Source:  New York Times

Uh-oh – hopefully, this is just a fleeting attitude and the Nets can put together a lot of solid performances.  Otherwise, you’ve got to believe they’ll continue to be tested mentally as other historically bad teams and it will take all their effort to stay together and focused on a common goal.

2) A second method of attempting to change years of bad fortune is through free agency.  A key signing or two could significantly change a team’s outlook.  However, there are multiple obstacles to this theory.  Poorly performing teams seem to have trouble acquiring or keeping top talent.

Let’s look at the top 30 players by salary (all over $14M). 15 of them are on teams that had over a .600 win% (50+ wins), while just 3 of them are on sub-.400 teams. In other words, the most successful teams employed 1.67 of these elite players on average, while the worst teams employed just 0.375 elite players.

Source: Hawkonomics

These statistics were compiled from last year’s payroll and performance.  One can gleam two likely scenarios for this disparity.  One, top players usually have choices in their destination; thus, they choose to play for a winning team that gives them a shot for a championship.  Two, poor performing teams usually suffer from the lack of capital necessary to sign major free agents.  Media outlets aren’t interested to pay top dollar to carry broadcasts while businesses and fans aren’t interested in sinking money for tickets, suites and other endeavors.

In one of the other historically bad teams we analyzed, the Chicago Bulls attempted to go the free agency route:

Remember, the summer of 2000 was supposed to be it. Actually, scratch that, Chicago had big designs on the summer of 1999, if we’re honest. And, if we’re to be completely accurate, the summer of 1998 was supposed to see all sorts of free agents flock to Chicago to eat up the team’s cap space. The summer of 1998 didn’t happen, for anyone. GM Jerry Krause saw the writing on the wall when most FAs signed with their old teams for more money in the truncated post-lockout offseason, and after talking up the 1999 offseason, he decided to make a few more cap-clearing moves and parlay that money (and two lottery picks) to the 2000 offseason.

Source:  ChicagoNow

As we can observe, the free agency route failed the post-Jordan Bulls.  Players obviously had no desire to come to Chicago despite the apparent available capital.  Therefore, what is there to ensure the same won’t happen to the Nets?  They’re off to a horrendous start, have historically been a well below average team and have put all their faith into a roster comprised of largely unproven young players.

However, the Nets do have two things in their favor.  First, it appears the long proposed move to Brooklyn will definitely happen.  Second, the Nets also have a new principal owner – Mikhail Prokhorov – one of the wealthiest men in the world.  Playing in the most dynamic sports city in American coupled with the deepest pockets can potentially bring in a top player or two.

They want a basketball team in Brooklyn – but not this one.

After the New Jersey Nets broke the record Wednesday night for starting an NBA season with the most consecutive losses – 18 – some borough sports fans had a message for owner Bruce Ratner as he tries to bring the team to Brooklyn: Start winning or don’t bother.

“I don’t want an 0-and-18 team coming to New York, especially to Brooklyn,” said Assane Ethols, 21, a Canarsie security guard. “It’s go hard or go home here.”

Source:  New York Daily News

It looks like a lot DOES ride on this season so let’s hope the current group starts playing better.

Regardless of league type or scoring settings, one should always consider the relative risk factors associated with drafting a player who is considered injury prone. You have to consider the type of production you can expect relative to what round he is being drafted in. If the player is heavily injury prone you may not get full value out of your pick.

A great example from last season would be Amare Stoudemire. He was universally considered a top four pick last season and was drafted as such. After missing 29 games due to a retina injury, he failed to produce value even close to a first round pick, let alone top five value. If a top pick goes down due to injury, even the most savvy fantasy manager can find themselves in a predicament.

In order to ease some of the confusion and turmoil associated with draft day, consider some of the league’s most injury prone players. Guys you might want to think twice about before drafting. Not to say that they are bad players, but they can’t help your team sitting on the bench in street clothes (I’m looking at you Mr. Arenas and your fancy ascot).

Now the criteria to determine who is an “injury risk” and who is not is no clear-cut science. It is not as simple as saying that if you missed x number of games the last season(s) then you automatically go on to a list. Conversely, we also are not saying that just because you have only missed a few games doesn’t mean that you are not an injury risk.

There is simply no substitute for doing your own research and reading up on players yourself.

Instead of looking at many of the more well-known injury-prone players such as Gilbert Arenas, Carlos Boozer, Caron Butler, Manu Ginobili, Andrew Bynum, Kevin Garnett, Dwayne Wade, etc. This list is reserved for some of the less obvious players who still have the unique ability to either lead a team to victory or tear down a fantasy franchise if injured.

The first player on our list is not only the highest ranked player but probably one of the more well-known injury prone players that we will comment on. This spot is reserved for Indiana Pacer Danny Granger. Going into his fifth NBA season Granger has established himself as one of the best go-to-guys in the league.

As the Pacer’s number one option, he holds plenty of fantasy value and will be a top ten fantasy pick this year in virtually every format. He can score from the inside or beyond the three point line. He has size, athleticism, passing ability, and is only 26 years old. Most importantly he has incredible heart and hustle.

He has increased his scoring average output by five points in three consecutive seasons (the first player in NBA history to do so) and was an All-Star last season. With 2008-09 season averages of 25.8 points on .447/.878 percent shooting, 5.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists,1.o steals, 1.5 blocks and 2.5 turnovers per game it is easy to see why he is such a hot fantasy commodity.

Another aspect of Danny’s game that has also increased incrementally each season since his rookie year is his minutes per game. His rookie year Granger averaged over 22 MPG and during the past two seasons he has averaged over 36 MPG. This is a substantial amount of minutes for any NBA player to average over the course of an 82 game season.

Granger has a history of ailments dating back to his college days. His junior year at the University of New Mexico he had surgery on his shoulder. He had arthroscopic knee surgery on his left knee as a senior, which caused him to miss a few games.  Last year Granger missed 15 games including a stretch in February and March where he missed eleven straight games. This comes after only missing a total of six games in his first three seasons combined.

What caused him to miss the eleven straight games was a tendon tear he sustained in his right foot. As a result, he was constantly hampered by soreness in his right knee during the second half of last season. With at least 36 minutes per game coming to him again this season, be sure to monitor Granger’s health routinely.

Don’t not avoid Danny on draft day because of his injury history because he will more than likely be fantasy gold next season. Just realize that you are most likely drafting a few DNP’s throughout the season if you go with Granger in the first round. This is one of the main reasons it makes sense to draft Kevin Durant ahead of Granger in most formats.

The second player on the injury docket is Brazil’s own Nene. Now Nene is the true definition of an injury risk and has only been able to complete 80 or more games once in his seven year career (his rookie season in 2002-03). Going into his eighth season, Nene has managed to miss a staggering 204 games, or an average of just over 29 games missed per season.

Last year he played in 77 games and had his greatest fantasy year by far (and a career year in real life) after averaging 14.6 points per game on .604/.723 percent shooting, 7.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.3 blocks and 1.9 turnovers per game. This stat line probably represents Nene at, or very near, his fantasy ceiling. With well-rounded production like that it is easy to see the value in drafting Nene in the early middle rounds of drafts.

But be careful; his injury istory is no laughing matter and is not overstated. In 2004-05, Nene missed 23 games due to injury (he suspended for four games). Damage to his left knee’s MCL caused him to be out thirteen games. Then he was out ten games due to a right hip contusion and a strained left hamstring.

On opening night in 2005-06, he tore his ACL three minutes into the season and went on to miss the entire rest of the season. In 2006 he missed 18 games, 16 of which were directly related to inflammation from a right knee contusion.

And to keep the injury streak alive and strong, in 2007-08, he managed to play in just 16 games. This time a combination of testicular cancer  (he is more than just injury prone), a right groin strain and a torn ulner collateral ligament  in his left thumb. These ailments kept Nene out of action for a combined 66 games.

These are major injuries and illnesses that should not be taken lightly. Just keep all of this in mind when reviewing Nene’s statistics from last season. Nene needs to stay healthy in order to justify this years average draft position, which is 51 according to Busersports, making him an early fifth round selection.

In the end, no one can predict which players will miss a significant amount of time next season. There are always freak injuries that simply cannot be predicted (see Francisco Garcia’s recent weightlifting accident). Just make sure that if you are drafting a player with a significant injury history you know exactly what you selecting (and how many games you are likely to miss out on).

Quick question – when you think of Tracy McGrady what comes to mind?  A supremely talented basketball player?  An All-Star destined to never meet lofty expectations?  Or perhaps the posterchild for the most injury prone active athlete?

Well Tim Grover of Attack Athletics (the guy who fixed Dwyane Wade and is trying to do the same for a number of other players this year) undertook the difficult task of changing that perception almost three months ago and by all accounts, Tracy’s rehab was going well.  So well in fact that T-Mac was suddenly on pace to be ready for the start of this upcoming season.   Then, less than one week ago, the talk hope of possibly being ready to go for the start of training camp soured.

Rockets guard Tracy McGrady will not be cleared to practice with the team Tuesday when training camp begins, officials said Monday. McGrady will continue his rehabilitation from microfracture surgery on his knee through Nov. 23 when he will undergo an additional MRI examination to determine whether he can begin practicing.

Source:  The Houston Chronicle

Even though Tracy stated to Sports Illustrated, “Confidence-wise, running, cutting, jumping — I have that right now,” he claims there is no reason to rush things.  Wait, on the one hand, you’re telling us you have all the abilities you need on the court, but you’re not ready?  Excuse me, but that doesn’t make sense.

So what happened?  Did Grover *dare I say* fail T-Mac?

I don’t think so.

The problem unfortunately appears to be the effects of the microfracture surgery.  While it isn’t a very invasive surgery, recovery times vary greatly.  Usually, for a return to sports, the window is 6-to-9 months.  According to the aforementioned SI article, Tracy stated he was only 7 months removed from surgery.  He also stated that he’s still technically ahead of schedule but that his doctors said it could take a year.  Consequently, Knee-Mac never set a true return date.

Rather, it seems like the whole world latched onto the optimism of physical therapist David Reavy.  Tracy’s recovery was going so well that Reavy was buzzing with a little too much optimism in making such a bold statement.  Unfortunately, many of us (whether its the fantasy basketball crowd or the Rockets faithful) latch onto stuff like this like a moth to a flame.

So really there was no actual setback.  Just a few too many jumping the gun.

In reality, there should still be plenty of hope that Tracy’s return will be successful at some point this season.  First, there is no denying McGrady has made faster than anticpated progress thus far during rehab.

“[Tracy] took a hard fall seven years ago in 2002 and he said he was never able to dunk off his left leg [since]. We got him dunking off his left leg four and a half months post micro-fracture, which is basically unheard of,” Reavy says. “The results that we get here are basically unprecedented because we take the force off the injured area, we make the body absorb the force equally, so that it can heal properly and faster without the loading that it’s constantly getting before.

Source:  ESPN Chicago

Second, TMAC’s actual surgery revealed it was not nearly as risky as others.  Dr. Tom Clanton, Houston’s team doctor, stated: “the joint damage is in a “favorable location,” not near a weight-bearing area, and that McGrady’s knee is otherwise healthy.”

Third, Tracy and the doctors are being much more careful to avoid a relapse like last year.  Tracy has spent almost the entire post-surgery time (not just the few months with Grover) in Chicago doing all the right things.  Namely resting then rehabbing under close supervision.  Consequently, it appears Tim Grover is off the hook — at least temporarily.

On the other hand, the two players we all need to be watching in initially judging Grover’s effectiveness should be either Gilbert Arenas or Jermaine O’Neal.  Both of them are more than a year removed from surgery and both tried to rehab/comeback under different guidance.  Much to his dismay (as we all heard by now), Gilbert followed the direction of the Wizards’ team doctors.  Meanwhile, Jermaine rehabbed with a different trainer, Joe Abunassar, a summer ago.

It will be interesting to watch how well Grover’s clients perform. Currently, he’s on a pedestal thanks to the phenomenal season Wade turned in last year.  If most of his guys make it through this year, either healthy for the most part or exhibit explosiveness only seen prior to injury, we might have to put that pedestal atop Mount Everest.

For some managers, there is no more exciting and challenging experience than a competitive keeper league. In certain respects, a keeper league mimics the idea of managing a team more realistic than a standard redraft fantasy league. The same can be said for dynasty or auction leagues to an even larger degree.

The Basics

In keeper leagues, managers get the opportunity to build teams around a core of players instead of assembling new teams each season. Honestly, both formats are fun and challenging but the idea of putting together an awesome keeper core and then building a championship-caliber squad around them is an extremely rewarding experience.

With dynasty leagues, you get the opportunity to draft and retain an entire team of players, replicating the actual general manager experience to a greater degree than a standard keeper league. Dynasty leagues strongly reward managers who can identify talent and secure talent. It separates those with an eye for talent and devotion to the game from those that get the entirety of their hoops knowledge from SportsCenter (no disrespect to SC at all).

And auction leagues take dynasty leagues to a whole new level of complexity by forcing managers to bid against each other for talent and then to live with the teams they assemble and the salaries they pledged. The key to auction leagues is finding value on the cheap. That’s how you secure the hardware.

So, how do you spot talent and sign them cheaply?

That is pretty much like asking for the fantasy holy grail. For starters, you have to have NBA League Pass. Second, you need a lot of free time and a patient and understanding significant other. Then you need to do your due diligence (and no shortcuts either). Finally, you need a serious dose of luck.

Pretty simple, eh?

League Settings and Variations

Keeper leagues themselves are not by any means universal. They can be roto or head-to-head. They can be standard eight or nine category or they could be entirely different combinations of categories. There really is no such thing as a “plain vanilla” keeper league.

The main distinguishing factor between keeper leagues, however, is the number of players kept from year-to-year. The most common number of keepers is probably around four or five, but the number can really be all over the map and can range from one to nine. Leagues that keep more than ten players are probably closer to dynasty leagues than to keeper leagues.

Beyond the previously mentioned differences, there can also be other variations for keeper leagues. One of the most common way involves forfeiting draft picks based upon who is kept. Let’s say that last season you drafted Dirk Nowitzki in the first round, Paul Pierce in the third round, Kevin Durant in the sixth round and Wilson Chandler in the twelfth round. In a normal keeper league, Nowitzki, Pierce and Durant would be the no-brainer keepers.

However, under these league settings, you would have to forfeit your first, third and sixth round picks to keep those three players. So then you have to consider the value you are getting (i.e. the keeper) versus the value you are paying (i.e. the draft pick). Under these circumstances it might make sense to keep Chandler over one of the other three players based upon value alone. In this case, you can only really consider Pierce as Nowitzki and Durant are locks to post first round value.

Thus, the dilemma becomes would you rather have Paul Pierce, a twelfth round pick and no third round pick? Or, would you rather have Wilson Chandler, a third round pick and no twelfth round pick? There is no right answer here but it basically depends upon how you value the two players and their future outlooks and team situations.

For dynasty leagues, the treatment of rookies provides one source of variation. In some leagues, rookies are thrown into a pool with all players not rostered at the end of the preceding season. Thus, rookies are drafted with veterans in the redraft to fill rosters at the start of next season. The other common way of handling rookies is through a separate rookie draft. This can be a one or two round mini-draft, depending upon the number of managers in any given league. This method also mimics real life to a large degree and rewards managers that follow college or do their research before the rookie draft. This is good way for managers with an eye for talent to lock up premier talent on the cheap.

The basic lesson from this discussion of some of the common league settings and variations is a simple one. Know your league and the various nuances of its scoring and settings. This is often the difference between the average managers and those standing tall on the winners podium at the end of the season.

Critical Strategy!

Regardless of league type (keeper, dynasty, auction), scoring type (roto, head-to-head, points) or league settings (number of keepers, forfeiting draft picks, treatment of rookies), there is one common mistake that is prevalent. In fact, it’s practically an epidemic and it can absolutely cripple a fantasy team. It is the mistake of overvaluing youth and building for the future.

Keeper league and dynasty managers often build with a timeline of years laid out in front of them. Call it the Portland or Oklahoma City model of team building. They draft the most talented rookie first and plan on waiting years until that player blossoms into the Man. However, this model ignores the fundamental purpose of fantasy basketball and why we participate.

We play fantasy sports to win; simple as that.

Every manager, all of the time, should be gunning for the gold. It doesn’t matter how bad your keeper core is or which team has Lebron James, Kevin Durant and Dwyane Wade, your goal is to beat everyone, everyday. It takes a truly outstanding manager with a focused vision and realistic game plan to beat a team with vastly superior keepers (not to mention a little goodwill from lady luck). And these wins are often times the most satisfying of all fantasy basketball victories.

So, when drafting in a keeper or dynasty league, always remember that the ultimate goal is to win the upcoming season. Obviously you don’t want to handcuff yourself in the future but don’t ever forfeit an entire season before it begins. It is amusing to see how early players with “upside” or “potential” get drafted over a proven veteran with a very high chance of continuing their fantasy production. A good example would be drafting Hasheem Thabeet when Ray Allen is available in the redraft.

In head-to-head leagues, continue to compete up until you are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. As soon as this happens, then you can start to plan for next season. Open up negotiations with all of the managers in the playoffs and see what they need. The idea is to trade all of your depth (i.e. non-keepers) for star power. Trade three, four or even five players to a contender to get their star. Do anything you can to compile and consolidate star power. That is how unstoppable keeper teams are made.

Once you exhaust all depth for star power trades, explore avenues for acquiring draft picks. The same rules apply; trade any non-keeper to those in the playoffs (or teams with weak keeper cores) for draft picks. This puts you in the best possible position to dominate next season. Because as soon as the playoffs end, you lose the leverage of being able to trade with players who are still trying to win it all this season.

Competing in dynasty and keeper leagues is not difficult if you follow a couple of basic rules and are willing to devote enough time and effort to besting your opponents. First, make sure and know your league settings and all of it’s nuances. Second, avoid the all-too-common pitfall of overvaluing youth and potential at the expense of trying to win now. Finally, have fun and try and not take it too seriously.

This article originally appeared at Barracuda Fantasy Sports. Check out their redesigned home page with tons of solid fantasy sports articles and analysis.

With Yao Ming down and out for (most likely) the entire NBA season and with Sun Yue no longer a Laker, Yi Jianlian must carry the hopes of over a billion Chinese. If the recent reports are true, Yi might finally be ready to step-up and become the player many thought he could become.

The burden of being selected in the lottery is often a difficult one to bear (selected 6th overall in 2007 in front of players like Joakim Noah, Spencer Hawes and Wilson Chandler). Some players take the challenge, and others crumble under the pressure of being called the b-word (that’s bust, folks). I’m looking at you, Mr. Brown.

However, Yi’s burden is two-fold. In addition to the typical lottery selection pressure, Yi must also deal with the pressure of being one of the few Chinese players in the Association. And make no mistake, China’s passion and love for basketball and the NBA is extremely high and the additional pressure of billions of Chinese people’s expectations is very real.

Recently, Yi was praised by Coach Lawrence Frank for his play this summer with the Chinese national team. Granted, his play was against much, much weaker competition (Kazakhstan has a basketball team?). But what is encouraging is that Yi has handled the pressure of being in the spotlight, of being the Man, without Yao and has flourished.

The confidence, or swagger is key. It’s always been clear that Yi had the physical and basketball tools to succeed in the NBA. The question has always been about his mental toughness and ability to peresevere against all odds. That’s what separates the purely talented from the successful in the NBA.

When analyzing Yi’s numbers last season, it is important to note two things. One, is that he was traded out of Milwaukee after only one season. This may have affected his confidence as he probably felt like he had to start over again in New Jersey. Two, is that Yi broke his pinkie finger in a game against the team that drafted him in January. After that game, Yi’s production just never got back on track.

Enough about the intangibles, what do the numbers say?

His per-36 minute averages from last season were 13.3 points on .382/.772 percent shooting, 8.3 rebounds, 1.2 threes, 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.9 blocks with 1.8 turnovers. For comparison’s sake, Yi shot .421/.841 percent shooting in his rookie season before digressing in his sophomore season.

If Yi really has gained his confidence and swagger back, his efficieny from field and the line should bounce back to respectable levels. It is doubful that Yi will ever increase his efficiency to elite levels, but he could eventually end up being above average from the field and excellent from the charity stripe. One thing’s for sure, his field goal percentage has nowhere to go but up from last season.

When looking closer at his statline, it’s immediately apparent that Yi has three-steal-block per game potential. In case you were wondering, the only four guys who pulled if off last season were Dwyane Wade, Lebron James, Danny Granger and Francisco Garcia. No, seriously. Now that’s great company.

If Yi really has overcome the mental hurdles that have limited him during the course of two years in the NBA, he is primed to have a breakout season for the Brooklyn New Jersey Nets. And with Vince Carter in Orlando, the opportunity is certainly there for Yi to prove that he belongs in the League (and on fantasy rosters for that matter).

It’s now or never.

When the Oklahoma City Thunder rescinded the deal they had orchestrated to acquire Tyson Chandler due to a nasty case of turf toe, it seemed almost laughable. Now, it turns out the joke was on the New Orleans Hornets. With basically no depth in the middle and little salary cap flexibility, the Hornets’ fate next season is tied to Chandler and his left foot.

In a press release, the team reports Chandler had a procedure performed on his left ankle to relieve inflammation. In addition, he also had a procedure done on his left toe to improve function. Both procedures were performed in New York City.

Posey had a corrective procedure performed on his right knee in Miami.

The Hornets report that both players will be fully recovered prior to training camp. But that fact that they are rehabbing significant injuries means New Orleans would have a hard time trading either player in any attempts to shake up their roster after a disappointing 2008-09 season.

Source: New Orleans Hornets, May 26, 2009

Scott also added that surgery revealed center Tyson Chandler’s injured ankle was worse than thought, and Chandler’s rehabilitation could take four months, close to the beginning of training camp in October.

Source: The Times-Picayune, June 5, 2009

The fact that Hornets head coach Byron Scott admitted the severity of Chandler’s injury is important for a few reasons. First, it means that Chandler is damaged goods and will most likely not be traded until he returns to the court and proves that he can stay healthy. This has major implications for the Hornets’ salary situation, as it is widely reported that they are in a very difficult fiscal financial straits and are actively trying to shed salary by any means necessary short of getting rid of All Star floor general Chris Paul.

Second, Chandler most likely aggravated his ankle and toe injury in trying to rush back and help New Orleans advance in the playoffs last season. Whether it was his own desire to help his team advance or due to pressure from the front office, Chandler clearly should not have been trying to play. The aforementioned lack of depth at the center position essentially doomed the Hornets’ playoff hopes without a healthy Chandler. When your choice for starting center is between Sean Marks, Hilton Armstrong or Melvin Ely, you are definitely in deep shit.

Without salary flexibility to sign a solid backup center, the fate of the Hornets franchise is tied to the health of Chandler’s feet and ankles and it appears that their desire to win last season meant that they were irresponsible in how the handled his injury.

But what about Chandler’s fantasy value for next season?

Chandler’s fantasy value season is certainly hard to gauge at this point but a few things are clear when you look at the numbers. There are certain players who are much better in real life than they are in fantasy basketball. Tyson is one of these players. There are also other players who will be drafted higher than they should merely based upon name recognition alone. Tyson is also one of these players.

Look at his average value last season compared to where he was drafted. In 2008-09, Chandler’s average draft position was 70th overall in Yahoo! fantasy basketball leagues. According to Basketball Monster’s Player Rankings, Chandler’s value last season wasn’t even close to that ADP.

Per game, 2008-09 = 181st
Cumulative, 2008-09 = 233rd

2008-09 averages: 8.8 points on 56.5/57.9 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 8.7 rebounds, 0.5 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 1.6 turnovers.

Obviously, Chandler was hobbled by injury last season and his value took a very serious hit as a result. What about Chandler’s per game and cumulative rankings from the previous season (2007-08)? These averages and rankings were indicative of the fantasy production and value managers expected to get from drafting Chandler. They also give a better impression of what Chandler’s true fantasy value is.

Per game, 2007-08 = 83rd
Cumulative, 2007-08 = 62nd

2007-08 averages: 11.8 points on 62.3/59.3 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11.7 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.7 turnovers.

So an ADP of 70th overall seems reasonable based upon his 2007-08 numbers, right?

Wrong.

In my opinion, Chandler’s 2007-08 fantasy value represents his ceiling. As a player with limited offensive skills, Chandler’s scoring probably will not advance significantly beyond his 2007-08 statistics. Most of his points where created by Chris Paul or off of putbacks anyways, so a trade to virtually any other team would negatively affect his fantasy value as well. As far as his other stats, he most likely was at or near his ceiling as well. His field goal percentage has little or no room for improvement. He could probably gain more blocks (Dwyane Wade averaged more blocks than Chandler last season) and I don’t really understand why he doesn’t. Again, more reason to believe that Chandler will not exceed his 2007-08 numbers and fantasy value.

Drafting a player close to or at their fantasy ceiling is not a formula for success. The idea is to draft players well below their ceiling so that they outperform their draft position by a wide margin (the most common example of this is trying to identify and draft sleepers). Do yourself a favor next season and steer clear of drafting Chandler, as he is most likely to be taken at or above his ceiling. You are better off to draft a mid-level center who has less injury concerns and more of that ever-elusive upside (Al Horfod for example).