Basketball Free For All

With the upcoming NBA season still a few months away, it’s time to take an early look at the fantasy prospects for a team that threatens to be very relevant: the Washington Wizards. Last season was a forgettable one for the Wizards (to say the least).

Washington finished the season with an embarrassing 19-63 record, making them the second worst team in the league behind Sacramento’s lowly mark of 17-65. They began last season with a record of 1 and 10, which prompted the firing of then head coach Eddie Jordan. The team never managed to recover from the rough start, finishing out the year with a string of insipid performances.

Sure, they had a rough go of it last year, injuries caused their best player, Gilbert Arenas, to miss all but two games (he did average 13 and 10 though, technically speaking). Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood both missed a significant amount of games as well. Outside of DC, it is rarely mentioned what an impact Haywood has for the Wizards, both on and off the court.

That being said, it is a new season for the Wizards and their outlook is significantly better for 2009-10.

The Wizards were one of the most active teams this off-season. They began their roster tune-up with a pre-draft trade with Minnesota, sending Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, Oleksiy Pecherov and the 5th overall selection in the 2009 draft, in exchange for guard/forward Mike Miller and guard Randy Foye. This was a big time move by the Wizards aimed at vaulting them back to contender status in the East.

The Bullets Wizards have entered the arms race in the Eastern Conference.

They traded spare parts (and a rotation player in Songaila) and their lottery pick, which turned out to be Ricky Rubio, to bring in a few veterans to help right away. The move should definitely improve their win total significantly next season while helping take some of the offensive load off the oft-injured and aging core of: Arenas, Butler and Antawn Jamison.

With a new-and-improved squad heading into next season, the Wizards should provide a variety of quality fantasy options for managers to tap. The key is to correctly identify which Wiz will be in the rotation, as Coach Saunders has made it known that his rotation only consists of eight players.

Take a look at the Wizards roster:

PG: Gilbert Arenas, Javaris Crittenton, Mike James
SG: Randy Foye, Nick Young, DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Caron Butler, Mike Miller, Dominic McGuire
PF: Antawn Jamison, Andray Blatche
C: Brendan Haywood, JaVale McGee, Francisco Oberto

The 2009-10 team is very guard heavy. Six of their fourteen players currently under contract are pure guards. Arenas is the starting point guard and is a lock to receive steady minutes, at least 35 per game, as long as he is healthy. He is obviously a great fantasy player when not being hindered by his surgically repaired knee (first round ceiling if healthy). Expect Gilbert to have a bounce back year this coming season after basically missing out on the previous two seasons due to injury.

This guy is a competitor and he wants to win, especially when LeBron James‘ Cavs are in town. Plus, he’s been working out with Tim Grover, who has helped guys like Dwayne Wade recover from injury. Hopefully he will be the guy who could drain threes from anywhere on the court and blow by a defender with ease.

If he is completely healthy I would expect Arenas to provide healthy numbers for his owners somewhere along the lines of 20.5 points per game on 43/80 percent shooting, 2.0 threes, 5.7 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 0.2 blocks and 3.0 turnovers.

The rest of the Wizard’s guards won’t hold as much value as Arenas, but some will still be fantasy relevant. Mike Miller (who can also play forward) should improve on the rather forgettable season last year. With plenty of other offensive options for defenses to worry about, Miller should get a good number of decent looks from the perimeter where he is not afraid to fire away.

Expect his three point percentage to rise from last year’s 37 percent mark back up to somewhere near his career average of 40 forty. Miller could average close to 12.0 points per game on 45/75 percent shooting, 2.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists with under a couple of turnovers.

Randy Foye should either start at shooting guard or be the first guard off the bench to backup Arenas. Foye had the best year of his career last year while playing big minutes for the woeful Timberwolves. Expect his production to be reduced this year as he will see fewer minutes in his reserve role. Although good in real life, depth is a fantasy killer as it means stiffer competition for the limited supply of minutes.

His ability to find playing time really rests upon the health of Arenas’ knee. If he is only getting around 20-25 minutes per night he may be worth a very late round selection in leagues of 12 teams or more. I expect Foye to have a much bigger impact on the Wizard’s win/loss column than he will in the fantasy world.

The other Wizard guards are most likely fantasy casualties of the recent trade and Arenas’ new-found health. Mike James and DeShawn Stevenson will see drastic minute reductions as well and should hold no fantasy value next season. Nick Young could see a major reduction from his 22.4 minutes he averaged last season, as his role was instant offfense off the bench.  He may not make it into Saunders’ eight man group next season. Beware.

Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison will continue to hold a lot of fantasy value next season. Jamison is pretty much a lock for 20/8 with a steal and close to two assists for good measure all on 45 percent shooting from the field and 35 percentfrom beyond the arc. He is getting older (he turned 33 this year) and one has to wonder when the drop-off in production will occur. However, the thing to remember is that Jamison is an old school gamer and competes night in and night out.

Butler’s fantasy relevance relies heavily on his health. He’s had an outstanding couple of fantasy seasons for the past few years now and should continue to do so as long as he can stay on the court. Caron missed fifteen games last year, 24 games in 2007-08 and 19 games in 2006-07. That is not exactly the “Cal Ripken Jr model of health” that the Wizards would hope for from one of the cornerstones of their franchise.

Butler has had the biggest work load placed on his shoulders the past two seasons as he attempted to carry the team’s offense in the wake of Arenas’ injuries. The heavy minutes combined with his penchant for taking contact really wore Butler down over the course of the season. The biggest knock on him the past few years was his absence during the final stretch of the fantasy season, when head-to-head owners needed him most.

If he stays healthy this year he will reward his fantasy owners handsomely, somewhere along the lines of 20.0 points per game on 46/85 percent shooting, 6.0 rebounds, 3.o assists, 1.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.7 turnover. He’ll also chip in a three pointer per game.

With all of the talent they now have in the Capitol, the Wizards will offer many servicable fantasy options, while undoubtedly improving on last season’s awful disappointing record.

People are naturally more comfortable with the familiar. Whether it be taking the same route to work every morning or watching your favorite movie fifty times, people like things to be predictable. I would have to guess that NBA players have the same comfort levels that we possessors of average athletic ability hold as well. They are not super heroes or somehow above the rest of us (although sometimes the media and the public’s perception points to this).

So why does it seem like there is such a lack of true loyalty among NBA players to one’s franchise, fans and city?

There used to be true loyalty among players in the league years ago. Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul Jabaar, Tim Duncan and Larry Bird all won multiple championships with one team. They stayed around through free agency and rebuilding periods and they got it done for their respective teams time and time again. Today it seems that there isn’t quite the same sense of devotion.

Players are too quick to bolt for a rival team if the pasture is greener on the other side (greener more often than not means more money). Think about all of the time, resources and effort a team has to put into a player that it views as the future of the franchise. The team is completely invested in the player from the scouting period, to the point when they sign their contract. Teams want that player to feel comfortable and at home in their city. They should feel important and desired and that is why NBA teams pull out all the stops when it comes to courting and retaining a franchise player.

Too often today teams and their loyal fans are being spurned by the same athletes they once cheered for. Take Hedo Turkoglu for example. After leading his Orlando Magic all the way to the franchise’s best season and a trip to the Finals, what does Hedo do in the off season? He leaves his championship caliber team and signs a deal (tentative) with the Toronto Raptors.

Why leave a team that obviously wants him and one that is in much better position to contend for a title than Toronto? It has to be money. The almighty dollar, especially in today’s economy, seems to have more pull than ever.

Ben Gordon has spent his entire career with the Chicago Bulls. After reportedly rejecting a 5 year $50 million deal from Chicago last season, he signed with the Pistons for 5 years and $55 million. Why not stay with the team that drafted you and allowed you to showcase your unique skill set instead of acting like a mercenary and leaving for which ever squad can pay you only a few million more?  I do realize it is disgusting and totally ridiculous to say “only a few million more,” but for an NBA player and their tax bracket it is only a drop in the bucket.

Trevor Ariza, after winning it all with the Lakers this year, bolts for Houston. Ron Artest took the Rockets farther in the playoffs than they had been in years. After Yao Ming went down, the Rockets were in need of someone to step in and take control of the young cast of talented role players they had assembled. Why not offer to make Artest one of your franchise cornerstones? Well you can’t if he signs with the Lakers, which turned out to be the case.

Dwayne Wade has been in the news recently talking about his future in Miami, or potential lack thereof. Wade basically stated that he would like to hold off on signing a multi-year extension with the Heat until he knows that they are working to put themselves in position to win a championship. Wade wants to make sure he is playing for a team that can contend for a title every year and is not just content to make the playoffs as a fifth seed.

I completely get this. Wade is entering the prime of his career, he can completely dominate a game and he wants to make sure his skills aren’t wasted on an average team. This guy is a winner and I respect his stance, but I am hoping he stays in Miami and wins another ring or two. It would be nice to see that level of commitment to a team that he once led to a championship and now has the opportunity to build a dynasty with. That is assuming the Heat do their part and bring in some talent.

With a number of the league’s brightest stars (Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar’e Stoudemire, for example) potentially going into free agency next season where will their loyalties fall? Will it be with their currnet team or will they follow the dollar to another city and fan base? I can only hope to see some of these players stay with the current teams and build a legacy in the tradition of some of the games biggest stars of years past.

Based upon his performance this postseason, the media is questioning whether Carmelo Anthony deserves to be labeled a superstar or not. Keeping in mind the fact that the superstar label is a rather arbitrary distinction that means totally different things to different people, the discussion is a valid one. The same question arises in regards to fantasy basketball and in trying to determine what his value will be next season and where to draft him.

First, look at Melo’s regular season numbers from the past season and compare them to his postseason numbers. In 66 regular season games, Melo posted 22.8 points on 44.3/79.3 percent shooting, 1.0 threes, 6.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.4 blocks, and 3.0 turnovers. According to Basketball Monster, these averages were good for 82nd in per game rankings (standard nine cat).

In fourteen postseason games this year, Melo is averaging: 27.1 points on 46.5/81.9 percent shooting, 1.6 threes, 6.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 2.3 turnovers. According to BBM’s per game rankings, Melo is good for sixth in the playoffs in standard nine category leagues. That is fantastic and absolutely destroys his regular season averages. But is it sustainable over the course of an entire fantasy season?

Although it is probably unrealistic to expect him to maintain that playoff production for 82 games, his postseason line does provide some hope of improvements next season. His overall efficiency is up at a time when opposing teams are playing their best defense that, as a superstar, is focused on stopping him.  His slight increases in shooting efficiency is definitely welcome but what is even more impressive is his decrease in turnovers during the playoffs (3.0 to 2.5 per game).

In addition, Anthony has shown an intense commitment to playing defense in the playoffs, which is part of the reason we are hearing all the superstar nonsense. When you have a commitment to defense and you are a team leader, you set the tone for the entire team. And you win games and advance in the playoffs. Melo’s newly-discovered zeal for  defense this season is in no small part due to Chauncey Billups and his leadership. As a result, Carmelo is averaging +0.7 steals and +0.4 blocks per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season.

Why should we believe this will carry into next season? Couldn’t this just be a byproduct of playoff basketball?

Obviously, his regular season stats will not live up to his playoff stats next season but there is reason to believe he will have a more efficient line with slightly improved defensive production as well (probably more threes as well; he only averaged one per game last season and seems to really have found a rhythm from downtown). That reason is winning, plain and simple. Billups has helped create a culture of professionalism and winning in Denver and the result is contagious. Look for Melo and the Nuggets to build upon this year’s success next season.

So if Melo is a superstar in real life and in fantasy basketball after all, where should he be drafted next year?

Last season Anthony’s average draft position was 28th overall in Yahoo! fantasy basketball leagues. That means on average he was taken in the early third round of drafts. Remember, he was good for 82nd in per game rankings (and 105th  in cumulative rankings, according to BBM). So it would be pretty tough to justify taking him much earlier than that the third round next season. However, due to name recognition, Melo is unlikely to last beyond the third round of most drafts.

As Dwayne Wade proved, the previous summer’s success can translate into improved fantasy production the following season. Those “lucky” enough to draft Wade this past season can attest to that.

With the top two seeds still alive and kicking in the Western Conference, both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Denver Nuggets avoided upsets on their way to the Western Conference Finals. However, both teams took divergent routes this season to arrive at the same destination; the doorstep of the Promised Land.

For the Lakers, it seems as though their season was predestined from the moment training camp began. Kobe Bryant and company finished the season with the second best record in the league, second only to Eastern Conference power house, the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Lakers also sported high profile wins against some of the toughest competition this season and stole a game from the Cavs at the Q (39-2 record at home this season, with the Lakers being the only team able to dethrone the King at home;  The Philadelphia 76′ers beat the Cavaliers at home in the final game of the season by one point with Lebron James in street clothes).

For the Nuggets, the season started ominously with the front office kicking Marcus Camby to the curb for peanuts (well, salary cap relief). At that time, the Nuggets faithful were despairing the loss of their defensive anchor for nothing in return. Little did they know that the front office had an ace up their sleeve and would pull-off one of the best trades since the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol from Memphis last season.

In what has proven to be a franchise-altering move, the Nuggets shipped out Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess (who was ultimately waived and re-signed with Detroit for a better shot at winning a title… whoops). Since that time, the Nuggets have gone from possible lottery team to legitimate championship contender. If Allen Iverson truly is the Answer, the Denver Nuggets certainly weren’t interested in finding out what the question was. In contrast to the Lakers, this team has had to prove the doubters wrong every step of the way on their journey to being one of the last four teams standing.

So how do these two teams compare to one another?

Tale of the Tape: The Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 65-17
W-L%: .793
Rank: 2nd

The Lakers played consistently good basketball throughout the course of the regular season. Outside of Laker Nation, the Lakers probably didn’t get quite of enough credit for their accomplishments this season with Lebron James, and to a lesser extent Dwayne Wade and the Celtics’ Big Three garnering most of the media’s attention. They also maintained the best record in the West even with Andrew Bynum missing 32 games leading up to the playoffs.

Pace: 94.4, 5th
O-Rating: 112.7, 3rd
D-Rating: 104.6, 6th
Differential: +8.1 (O-Rating minus D-Rating)

Of the numerous basketball cliches out there, one in particular describes this Lakers team when they are firing on all cylinders. It is the well known saying that ‘their defense creates their offense.’  But for this Lakers squad it really holds true, with Trevor Ariza leading the charge (and earning himself a nice raise in the process going into free agency this season). Ariza, who is the Lakers’ defense personified, gets into the passing lanes, pushes the tempo and finishes way above the rim without ever giving up on a play. When Ariza and the Lakers play inspired basketball, they are really an exciting team to watch.

Offensively, you cannot overlook three time champion and former MVP Kobe Bryant. He draws a huge amount of attention from opposing teams’ defenses and makes life much easier for his teammates to get high-percentage looks. At the same time though, last season’s key acquisition, Pau Gasol, has made it much easier for Bryant to get good looks as well. Having Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum as your backup weapons makes the Lakers a very dangerous team. Add in great perimeter shooting and you have a team that punishes you for doubling to try and stop Bryant. They truly make you pick your poison.

First Round, v. UTA: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. HOU: 4-3

In the first round of the playoffs, the Lakers took care of business fairly efficiently in taking five games to dispatch of the Utah Jazz. However, the conference semifinals provided the Lakers with a much bigger challenge in the Tracy McGrady-less Houston Rockets. When Yao Ming went down for the season after game three, the Lakers and everyone else in the world counted the young and injured team out of the running.

The trouble for the Lakers was that the Rockets didn’t get the memo that everyone else in the world got that the series was over and they played like their (playoff) lives depended on it.  The simple fact that it took the Lakers seven games to move past the Rockets (refer to Lebron James, Mo Williams and the rest of the Cavs to see what a championship team truly looks like) has given legitimacy to the argument that this team is mentally focused enought to win a championship. However the 2007-08 Celtics didn’t exactly cruise to victory against the Hawks or Cavaliers in the first two rounds of the playoffs either.

Tale of the Tape: The Denver Nuggets

Record: 54-28
W-L%: .659
Rank: 5th

The Nuggets played like an entirely different team this season by both addition by subtraction and also by, well, addition. The Nuggets gained by subtracting Allen Iverson, who is the epitome of a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer in decline. Iverson is unwilling to admit that he can no longer carry a team on his back and unable to accept any lesser role. This is probably the ultimate chemistry killer in the locker room. Billups, in an absolute contrast to AI, is the consummate professional and a savvy, championship proven veteran (they don’t call him Mr. Big Shot for nothing). You replace an undersized and disgruntled shoot-first point guard with a professional, pass-first floor general who demands a commitment to defense from his teammates and you have a vastly improved Nuggets squad this year.

Pace: 94.3, 6th
O-Rating: 110.4, 7th
D-Rating: 106.8, 8th
Differential: +3.6

Much like the Lakers, the Nuggets play high tempo basketball and especially push the ball and force the issue on their home court. Defensively, both Nene and Kenyon Martin play physical defense in the paint and tend to force jump shooting big men like Dirk Nowitzki out of their element (although to Dirk’s credit he played phenomenal basketball against Denver in the Western Conference Semifinals). What really stands out when looking over this Denver Nuggets squad is that they played great team defense, which is exactly what they’ll need to do to try and limit Kobe Bryant. Dahntay Jones, despite earning minutes from George Karl based on his perimeter defense, is simply over-matched against Bryant. It must be a concentrated and carefully executed five man strategy if you hope to stop the Black Mamba.

Offensively, this team is a true partnership with Billups and Carmelo Anthony sharing the leadership onus for this team. Billups calls the plays and initiates the offense while Melo is the finisher. Off the bench, J.R. Smith provides instant fire and has matured from playing alongside Billups (although he is still J.R. Smith so keep that in mind). He is prone to occasionally taking ill-advised jumpers or pull-up threes. But when this guy is on, he can absolutely make it rain. Smith is the true X-Factor for the Nuggets offense.

First Round, v. NOH: 4-1
Conference Semifinals, v. DAL: 4-1

Melo could not being player better basketball this postseason (27.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists on 48/45/83 percent shooting). Him and Dirk really battled last series with Anthony rising to the challenge and hitting big baskets when they mattered most. Chauncey Billups is right there alongside Melo in terms of playoff production (22.1 points, 7.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds on 49/54/96 percent shooting) and impact on ball games. As a result, the Nuggets made quick work of both the Hornets and the Mavericks along the way.

Regular Season Matchups

The Lakers and Nuggets played four regular season games this year, with the Lakers holding the 3-1 advantage. But upon closer examination, the team’s head-to-head play is not so clear-cut.

• Game One: 11/01/08. Lakers 104, Nuggets 97 (No Billups).
• Game Two: 11/21/08. Nuggets 90, Lakers 104.
• Game Three: 02/27/09. Lakers 79, Nuggets 90 (No Bynum).
• Game Four: 04/09/09. Nuggets 102, Lakers 116.

One of the Lakers’ three wins came against an Iverson-led Nuggets team, which, as discussed earlier, is essentially a different team. Empty win, Lakers 0-0. The second Lakers win was played out by two teams at full strength. Lakers 1-0. The third game involves a Bynum-less Lakers team, which is a different team as well. Lakers 1-0. The fourth and final game was again played out at full strength and again resulted in a Lakers win. Lakers 2-0.

Slam dunk, the Lakers are going to sweep the Nuggets in this series then, right? Not so fast. If you look at regular season games one through four again, paying particular attention to home court (the second team listed above was the home team), the Lakers two wins at full strength were both at the Staples Center. The two games that were thrown out for missing key players both occurred in Denver, where Denver is much more likely to play better basketball. While not providing hard evidence in favor of Denver winning the series, these few games definitely don’t give me any reason to count out the Denver Nuggets yet.

Position Battles

Point Guard: Advantage Nuggets. Hands down, and it’s not even close. Billups is a vastly superior floor general to Derek Fisher, although Billups is a better defensive assignment for Fish than Aaron Brooks proved to be last series. Fisher was absolutely embarrassed at times by Brooks’ speed and looked his age (34). Not to take anything away from Fisher, who is a great piece for the Lakers, but  he is clearly overmatched here.

Shooting Guard: Advantage Lakers. Hands down, and it’s not even close (again). I’m sorry but Bryant is better than Dahntay Jones and J.R. Smith combined. You better hope that Smith is ready to play lock-down defense, because Jones will be into early foul trouble in at least a couple of games in this series. One of the top five players on the planet and a nightmare to guard.

Small Forward: Advantage Nuggets. Again, not to take anything away from Trevor Ariza, but Anthony is clearly the better player. Ariza’s quickness may get the better of Melo at times, but Anthony’s strength will likewise cause problems for Trevor on the defensive end. Melo has forced his name into the discussion of best players in the postseason and I fully expect that trend to continue in the immediate future.

Power Forward: Advantage Lakers. Kenyon Martin is a very physical defender and could possibly cause Pau Gasol to lose his focus and start trying to get the referee’s ear. However, Gasol can stretch the floor and play with his back to the basket with equal skill. Martin is much more limited offensively which allows Gasol to conserve more of his energy for the offensive end.

Center: Push. Bynum has not fully proven that he is healthy and ready to be a factor in this series. Sure, he did play much improved basketball in the later games of the Rockets series, but he was also playing against a team without a true center or anyone who can body up on him (he is a beast). Nene has also not proven that he can be a consistent factor on the road in the post season, which is of crucial importance if the Nuggets hope to have a chance at upsetting the Lakers.

Bench: Push. This is a hard decision to make. Chris ‘the Birdman’ Andersen is the heart and sould of this Nuggets team and he, like Ariza, has earned himself a nice raise this season heading into free agency. He gets the crowd in the game. He blocks shots and alters way more shots than he actually touches. He provides highlight reel finishes in the open court. Besides him, the Nuggets have Anthony Carter, J.R. Smith and Linas Klieza to provide quality minutes.

The Lakers also have an extremely solid bench with depth at every position. Lamar Odom, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown and Luke Walton all provide production off the bench and can step in if an injury were to occur to a starting teammate. The Lakers generally only need Odom and other of these guys to have a big game and they are virtually unbeatable. The bench (more so than even the Bynum v. Nene matchup) will be hugely important in this series.

Final Questions

Which team will show the mental toughtness of a championship team, even through adversity?

Can the Denver Nuggets overcome the Lakers’ home court advantage?

Where will game four be played?