Basketball Free For All

It’s the final countdown!  Before I get into this week’s list, I’ve got to keep harping over these guys whose ownership is just over 40%:  Carlos Delfino, George Hill, Taj Gibson and Drew Gooden.  Hill looks to be primed to finish the year like a beast thanks to Tony Parker’s broken hand.  Gibson has excellent prospects as well as Joakim Noah isn’t even close to being a force in the paint anytime soon.  Lastly, Gooden and Delfino seem they’ll be able to continue their multi-cat ways.

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With yet another NBA trade deadline coming and going, a lot of excitement and hope was generated among the fans and media.  Some teams were looking for that final piece that makes them championship material.  Others simply were looking for a player that helps them get into the postseason.  Lastly, there were a few who look at this time of the year as the highlight of the season as their team struggles to even be competitive on a nightly basis so might as well position themselves for the upcoming lottery.  Whatever the reasons, all fans hoped their team would have made a trade or two that improved future prospects.  Question is, how often can these deadline deals really be coined successful?

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Everyone ready for the home stretch?  We’ve got 3 weeks left before most fantasy playoffs begin in Week 22.  However, don’t view this as a time to coast as it could be more important than ever to pay attention to your teams.  Whether you’re fighting to make the playoffs or simply looking to make those final tweaks to bring home a championship, the moves you make now could potentially decide your entire seasons.  So FOCUS! 

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Wondering what will be the effects of all the major deals prior to today’s deadline?  Well, worry no more as Justin and I are here to help clear up any confusion.  I’ll handle the relevant fantasy perspective while Justin will tackle the realistic implications in a subsequent article.  If we happen to miss anything or you simply have a question, as always, feel free to leave a comment below.

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All the hype surrounding the collaboration between Mark Cuban and Jerry Jones in bringing the 2010 All-Star Game to Dallas wasn’t completely misguided, as the event drew a record crowd of 108,713 people to Cowboys Stadium. The entirety of the weekend proved to be more of a letdown than anything though, with two events in particular standing out as big-time busts.

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Golden State Warriors fans had to be displeased watching Brandon Jennings take the League by storm right out of the gates this season knowing that their team passed him up to draft another promising young guard. However, they now understand why, as Stephen Curry has been playing at an incredibly high level amidst incredible adversity. Over the past month, Curry has posted first round value while averaging 19.5 points on .484/.879 percent shooting, 2.4 threes, 4.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.6 turnovers. Congratulations if you drafted Curry or snagged him off the wire early on in the season but this kid definitely deserves to be recognized for his outstanding play as of late.

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The San Antonio Spurs are struggling this season. For a franchise that has been synonymous with winning over the past decade, the Spurs are having a disappointing season despite being 17-11 (.607 W-L%) and very much in the playoff mix. Their 33 year old franchise player, Tim Duncan, is still putting up numbers consistent with his career averages while also posting a career high in free throw percentage. However, being a middle of the pack playoff team is not a successful season for a team that has won four out of the last eleven championships.

Throughout these four championship seasons, there have been two constants: the aforementioned once-in-a-decade franchise player, Tim Duncan, and the second best active head coach in the NBA, Gregg Popovich. It is impossible to talk about either one of these two mythical figures in isolation, as their careers are so intertwined with Pop’s first full season as head coach of the Spurs being Duncan’s rookie season. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Pop and Duncan retire at the same time (2011 at the earliest, although 2012 is more realistic).

Each of the Spurs’ four championships was predicated on their defensive prowess, as orchestrated by Pop and anchored by Duncan. Everything else is built around supporting stars (Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili now; Sean Elliott and David Robinson earlier) and role players (Antonio McDyess and Roger Mason now; Bruce Bowen and Robert Horry earlier). The Spurs’ genius lies in blending the franchise player, supporting stars and role players together into a defensive juggernaut and an above-average offensive team.

Take a look at the following table, which looks at all of the Duncan-led Spurs. It compares the Spurs’ offense (O-Rating, or points scored per 100 possessions), defense (D-Rating, or points allowed per 100 possessions) and the Differential between the two (O-Rating minus D-Rating equals Differential; the higher the positive number the better). The table also lists the average O-Rating/D-Rating for each season, as it varies from year to year, and the individual rankings for each O-Rating and D-Rating.

*Table is sortable. Click on column headers to sort data.

* Championship season
~ Lockout-shortened season

Perusing the chart, the defensive numbers jump off the page. They were a top five defensive team in every season leading up to this year with Duncan. This season, the Spurs have dropped to 14th overall, which is the first time a Duncan era Spurs team has been an average defensive team instead of an elite defensive team. On the offensive side of things, the Spurs have been an average offensive team only finishing in the top five once (it will be twice if the Spurs continue to play at this exact level all season).

The Spurs’ philosophy has always been that an average offense is fine as long as the defense is elite, which leads to a high differential. Notice that if you sort the chart descending according to differential three of the Spurs’ four championships cluster near the top? It is most certainly not a coincidence.

Now take a look at the Spurs’ current season, which can be referred to as their Bizarro Season. This season, the formula for the Spurs has been flipped on it’s head, with the Spurs being a top five offensive team and average defensive team. Notice that the Spurs still have a decent positive differential but remember that the fundamental formula for this Spurs team has changed somewhat radically from all previous Duncan-led Spurs.

What is responsible for this flipping of the proverbial script?

Let’s look at the personnel turnover from last season to this season to see which players were holdovers, which players were subtracted and which players were added.

Holdovers: Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Roger Mason, Matt Bonner, George Hill, Michael Finley

In this group, we have our franchise player, supporting stars and four of the Spurs’ key role players from last season. Hill has solidified his role as backup point guard and efficient scorer off the bench. Mason has stepped in as the third string point guard and has also filled the void left by Big Shot Rob. Finley’s role this season has been drastically reduced (18.3 minutes per game), although he can fill in at either the two or three if injuries should require it. Bonner plays the role of the stretch four, spotting up for threes in the corners and looking to clean the glass.

Subtracted: Kurt Thomas, Ime Udoka, Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto, Drew Gooden, Jacque Vaughn

This group is all role players, almost all of which are above average to excellent defenders, either on the perimeter or in the post. Thomas is the consummate professional who plays extremely smart post defense and is an excellent role model for younger bigs. Oberto is like a watered down version of Thomas; together they represent a large exodus of post defense and veteran savvy. Gooden was more of an offensive-focused big man than Kurt or Fabricio but is still an average defender as well. Bowen is the quintessential Spurs perimeter defender, although it was clear he had lost a step last season. Udoka was also a solid defender and was relatively versatile, as he was able to guard the perimeter or the post. Finally, Vaughn was a decent defender at the point and was a solid fill-in to spell Parker off the bench. In all, the Spurs lost a ton of defensive minded role players.

Added: Richard Jefferson, DeJuan Blair, Antonio McDyess, Keith Bogans, Theo Ratliff

The Spurs gained one borderline supporting star/role player and four other role players to try and fill the void left by the outgoing players. R-Jeff has the physical skill-set to be a lock-down defender, although he has traditionally made his name through his offense. Blair is a promising rookie, who will be a destructive force on the glass for his career. However, he is still young and plays for Popovich, who is hesitant to play rookies big minutes. Bogans has started for the Spurs and is being groomed to take over for Bowen, locking his man down on defense and spotting up for the corner three and making opposing defenses pay for doubling off of him. Ratliff and McDyess were brought in on minimum contracts to man the paint and bring the veteran savvy that Kurt and Fabricio Oberto provided.

Let’s run down the list one more time to look for changes. Same coach (Pop). Same franchise player (Duncan). Same supporting stars (Parker and Manu). No difference here. But when you examine role players, here is where big changes start to become apparent. They have replaced departed perimeter defenders (Udoka, Bowen) with fresh perimeter defenders (Jefferson, Bogans). They have replaced post defenders (Thomas, Oberto, Gooden) with fresh post defenders (McDyess, Ratliff, Blair).

However, just swapping these players out has not been as seamless as a transition as the Spurs front office and other observers probably expected. Something was lost in translation and the Spurs’ defense has stumbled out of the gates. Recently, Coach Popovich summed up what was lost very nicely.

Still, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich remains bullish on the team’s offseason investments. He continues to urge patience with his newcomers as they adjust to their new team, and their new team adjusts to them.

“What I’m learning is we lost more corporate knowledge than I thought,” said Popovich, whose team is 13-10 after a 2-1 Western road trip. “It’s taken a little bit more time than I thought to get everybody on the same page.”

Source: San Antonio Express-News

The corporate knowledge that Pop is talking about above is what was lost. The replacement players are all capable individual defenders but have no experience playing in the Spurs defensive system. Spurs defense is position defense that demands crisp defensive rotations that can only be effective when executed as a unit. If any of the five men on the floor are out of sync then the entire defense crumbles and opposing teams can take advantage of weaknesses. The study of this season’s Spurs illustrates not only the importance of role players but also the importance of having continuity with your role players from season-to-season.

As a die-hard Suns fan, I’ve learned one lesson over the years when dealing with the San Antonio Spurs: never under any circumstances underestimate them or count them out. As history has shown, Popovich is a brilliant coach and is one man that is capable of rising to the challenge of getting his team to play to the best of their abilities, especially on the defensive end of the floor. If Pop and Duncan can get their team firing on all cylinders in time for the Playoffs, San Antonio is going to be a very difficult matchup for anyone in the Western Conference.

The biggest storyline fantasy circles during week four had to be the return of Elton Brand. Over the first ten games of the season, Brand’s owners have practically had to be on suicide watch. Over the past week, however, Brand has been the second best player in fantasy basketball, period (averaged 19.3 points on .523/.867 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 10.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.7 steals, 3.7 blocks and 2.0 turnovers over the past three games). That is a vintage EB line right there.

Another couple of big names made their season debuts this past week as Antawn Jamison and Pau Gasol both made big splashes in their season debuts. Jamison immediately showed everyone why he is one of the most under-appreciated players in fantasy basketball, averaging 22.7 points on .490/.591 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers in three games this season. Gasol also reminded owners why they spent such a high draft pick on him, posting 24 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.o turnovers in his season debut. Welcome back, fellas.

Other owners were not so lucky last week, with Mike Miller, Andrew Bogut, Jameer Nelson, Erick Dampier and Raja Bell all going down with varying injuries and ailments. For more early season excitement, we also had the first in-season trade of the 2009-10 season sending Stephen Jackson and Acie Law to the Bobcats sending Raja Bell and Valdimir Radmanovic to the Warriors. With week four almost in the books, it is time to look ahead and strategize for week five.

Week Five Schedules
Four Games: DAL, DEN, LAC, MEM, MIL, MIN, NJN, NYK, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, SAN, TOR

Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAL, MIA, OKC, PHX, UTA, WAS

Two Games: CHI, NOH

ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)

Dahntay Jones (SG/SF – 40%) This season can definitely be labeled a breakout season for Dahntay in Indy, as he is posting career-highs in virtually every single statistical category after signing with the Pacers. For Jones, ride him while he is hot as he should only face increased competition for minutes as the Pacers return to full strength (most notably Mike Dunleavy). Surprisingly, Jones has been effective on both offense and defense (2.0 steals and 1.7 blocks and 19.7 points on .525 percent shooting over the past three).

Drew Gooden (PF/C – 26%) With Dampier out indefinitely with a mystery illness, Gooden has responded in a beastly manner. Over the past week, Gooden has posted averages of 14.8 points on .500/.818 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.0 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.3 blocks and 1. turnovers. Those are very nice numbers for a center three pulled off the waiver wire. Gooden deserves a universal add for his recent strong production.

Jared Dudley (SF/PF – 19%) Dudley is a player that most casual NBA fans are probably not familiar with but would be if he played for a prime-time team like the Lakers. His a role player that stays on the court through pure hustle and effort in the 2008-09 Trevor Ariza mold. Despite the low ownership numbers, Dudley has been climbing up the fantasy rankings (93rd overall in per game value according to Ziguana) with his potent combination of threes and steals with low turnovers.

Steve Blake (PG – 16%) It appears Blake has won Portland’s point guard battle (fow now) making him rosterable if you need assists, threes and free throw percentage. Over the past week, Blake has put up top-1oo value and played 35 minutes per game with free agent addition Andre Miller outside of the top 200 and averaging 25 minutes per game. I’m not cutting Miller in standard leagues yet, but am getting pretty damn close. The only question left is why Portland paid Miller over $20 million over three years to run their second unit? For a team that has seemingly made all the right moves lately, it just seems like they made the move for the sake of making a move and not because it was the best fit for their team.

Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 15%) In his second stint in the NBA, Ilyasova is starting to prove that he belongs in the League and that he deserves universal ownership. Over the past week, Ersan has put up top fifty value averaging 14.8 points on .488/.727 percent shooting, 2.3 threes, 9.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers in four games. This combination of threes and boards from a forward is a very nice addition without having to sacrifice too much in either of the percentages. His strong play has most likely solidified his spot in the Bucks’ starting lineup (started the past three games).

CUT LIST

Jonny Flynn (PG/SG – 78%) With rookies learning the game at the highest level, efficiency and minutes are usually the main impediments to fantasy value. In Flynn’s case, he has gotten decent minutes (28.4 per game in 13 games this season) but has had serious problems with the efficiency. For reference, Flynn has shot .442 percent from the field (.250 percent from three point land) while also averaging more turnovers than assists (3.5 to 3.2 per game). Add in the fact that Ramon Sessions is a more experienced player and actually has some pretty serious game and Flynn is looking more like a long-term project and less like an immediate impact player. Cut bait.

Andray Blatche (PF/C – 48%) Bulletproof had one hell of a run to start this season. With Jamison out with a preseason shoulder injury, Andray stepped it up in a big way posting top-100 value for the first few weeks. Since Antawn’s return to the Wizards’ starting lineup, Blatche’s minutes have dropped considerably (17, 15, 25 minutes in his past three games) and his status has been demoted from universal ownership to waiver wire wonder. Thank him for his service and be ready to pick him up again in the event of another injury to a Wizards forward.

STAY THE COURSE

John Salmons (SG/SF – 87%) John Salmons giveth and he taketh away. This week, Salmons gave two strong performances back-to-back and then followed them up with a stinker. In fact, last week saw the only two game streak in which Salmons shot .500 percent or greater from the field. However, his .182 percent shooting night on Saturday abruptly brought an end to Salmons owners’ happiness. As with before, the counting stats are there but his shooting efficiency has been terrible (.345 this season versus .444 career). Don’t trade Salmons for an inferior player.

Stephen Curry (PG/SG – 66%) Since S-Jax was unceremoniously sent packing last week, Curry has posted some of the best numbers of his career. Over the past week, Curry has averaged 13.0 points on .448/.800 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 3.3 turnovers. The turnovers are a definite concern but as long as he is providing decent counting stats on good percentages it is palatable.

DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS

Jason Williams (PG – 17%) Another season and another injury for Jameer Nelson. This one (meniscus) promises to keep Nelson on the bench for at least a month. This means second-string point man White Chocolate is now the starting point guard in Orlando and deserves consideration in deep leagues. If the Magic do not end up trading for another PG or signing a free agent floor general, Williams could eventually play his way into wider ownership. Sunday’s 16 point, 5 rebound, 3 assist performance is a step in that direction.

Terrence Williams (SG/SF/PF – 18%) Williams has had a roller-coaster ride of a rookie season so far with his team win-less through thirteen games. Terrence has shown why he was drafted eleventh overall in the 2009 NBA Draft. Williams’ last couple of games have been promising and he could be positively affected by the return of Devin Harris. Williams is worth picking up at this point in deep leagues to see if he can continue and build upon his recent strong play.

Darren Collison (PG/SG – 13%) / Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 3%) These two Hornets guards have both been on our watch list before and most certainly would have been upgraded to the Add List if it wasn’t for the Hornets’ week upcoming schedule. With Chris Paul down for at least a few more weeks, both of these players can provide interim help in the short-term in different categories. If you are looking for assists, points, threes and free throw percentage give Collison a look. If you are looking for threes, points and field goal percentage with low turnovers give the other Thornton an add.

WATCH LIST

James Harden (PG/SG – 33%) With two strong games back-to-back, Harden is one player that may have turned the corner. Sunday’s contest against the Lakers will be a good heat check for Harden. If the rookie posts another strong line in under 30 minutes, he deserves roster consideration. In the past two games, Harden averaged 24.5 points on .600/.900 percent shooting, 5.0 threes per game, 3.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.5 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. Obviously he is going to cool off a bit, but if he can put up numbers anywhere close to this consistently he’d be worthy of a roster spot in all formats.

Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 3%) Another rookie coming off of a strong performance against the over-acheiving Rockets is Sacramento Kings forward Omri Casspi. Casspi set a career-high in scoring going for 17 points on .400/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 8 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 1 turnover. Casspi also posted a career-high in minutes, which is a trend to keep an eye on. If the minutes come consistently for Casspi, he should have no problem putting up fantasy-relevant numbers. For now just monitor the situation and be prepared to act if his minutes continue to trend upward.

The NBA basketball season is underway and with that a number of us are participating in various fantasy leagues.  It’s obviously an exciting time as we get to see how our newly drafted teams kick off the year.  A few will be happy with the initial results, but most of us will have qualms about at least a player or two on our roster.  To add to the confusion, there are several guys just sitting on the waiver wire begging to picked up after putting up an enticing line or two.  Should we jump the gun and pick them up?  Or will we regret our decision and feel like the league’s laughing stock?

Since most of us play in standard sized leagues (12 teams each with 13 players), I’m going to gear the examples in this article towards them.  Before you pick up that alluring free agent, I want you to ask yourself 3 questions.

First, regarding the player in question, will he have an opportunity to put up serviceable numbers consistently for at least the near future?  The main thing you want to examine is minutes.  Inconsistent time on the court is almost always going to lead to spotty production.

There are numerous indicators that point to solid time.  Perhaps the player just fell into a solid role due to a teammate’s injury.  Maybe he emerged as the leading candidate from a position battle.  Or he could be a young guy or a non-playoff team who improved significantly over the the summer.

Off the top of my head, some guys who come to mind so far this season that fit the bill are Andray Blatche, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Andres Nocioni, Danilo Gallinari, Ben Wallace, Corey Brewer, Roy Hibbert and Channing Frye.

On the other hand, guys like DeJuan Blair, Ty Lawson, JJ Redick, Shelden Williams and Jason Williams should probably be left on the waiver wire.  They have all had a solid line or two, but in all their cases it is unlikely to continue.  For instance, promising rookies like Blair and Lawson have had some eye-popping numbers but it came in blowouts where the starters played significantly less.

Next, you need to ask what is the free agent’s prior history? There are always a few players in the league who continue to entice owners year after year because they show a glimpse of good value.  For example, this season, already Larry Hughes, Erick Dampier and Travis Outlaw have probably lured a few fantasy managers to pick them up.

However, it’s probably not a good idea.  Hughes has a solid history of putting up an occasionally stellar line the last few years, but he can never sustain any consistent production.  Moreover, he is currently getting quite a bit of run at the expense of Nate Robinson’s short term injury.  Don’t forget Larry DEFINITELY-NOT-A Legend, made 1 of 23 shots in preseason.

Erick Dampier has currently enjoyed several solid lines, but I don’t think he’s turned back the clock.  His numbers have been in steady decline since the Mavericks landed him 5 years.  Also, newly signed Drew Gooden has missed several games due to a pulled rib cage muscle.

Travis Outlaw has the ability to score in bunches, but Portland is so deep that even with Nicolas Batum’s shoulder injury he’ll be more off than on.  Martell Webster is still the starter and most nights they’ll cancel out one another’s value with the dreaded fantasy time share.

Third, how useful will the free agent be on my team? For Rotisserie and Points leagues, this may not be that large of an issue since every player has similar value to every other manager in the league.  However, if you’ve already got two solid 3 point shooting guards on your bench, does it really make sense to add a third and thereby really limiting your team’s flexibility?

On the contrary, in Head to Head leagues, managers need to also examine whether the free agent will help their strengths.  Many owners don’t (and rightfully so) try to be competitive in all the categories in their league.  It just doesn’t make sense to try to win them all when it substantially reduces the odds of winning the majority of categories week in and week out.  Thus, when picking up a free agent, a manager should always be aware of his strengths and improve on those, rather than fruitlessly worry about their weaknesses.

Naturally, you should ignore the last two paragraphs if the free agent in question looks like they’ll post top 100 value for an extended period of time.  Even though the player may not suit your team, he will surely be coveted by someone else and would make excellent trade bait.

Over the course of the season, I’m going to try to touch on a few subjects focusing on particular strategies everyone should be aware of in fantasy basketball.  If any of you would like to see a particular topic discussed, feel free to email me or leave a comment at the end of the article.

If nothing else, Dallas Mavericks billionaire Mark Cuban is certainly not gun shy about making major moves and shaking up his roster. After a disappointing 2008-09 campaign, Cuban declared that nobody was safe from being moved.

Despite the declaration, Dallas’ core stayed intact with Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry and Josh Howard all still around. With the season just around the corner, the 2009-10 Mavericks are substantially similar to last season’s model, with versatile forward Shawn Marion and big man Drew Gooden being the main additions.

This was supposed to be a sleeper piece on Marcin Gortat or Brandon Bass. However, the Orlando Magic ended up locking down both players for very reasonable prices, which seemed to be one of the major themes of the summer of 2009. Man, it would have been awesome to finally see the Polish Sledgehammer unleashed. But it was not meant to be.

With Erick Dampier slowing down and showing his age (34), the Mavericks clearly needed an addition or two to the front court. What the Mavericks needed most was athleticism on the wing (Marion) and scoring from the paint (Gooden). Scoring in the paint is not exactly Dirk’s specialty, as he is much more of a jump shooter than Gooden.

If given minutes, Gooden has shown that he can produce and be fantasy relevant. His career per-36 minutes averages are 15.4 points on .471/.732 percent shooting, 10.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.1 turnovers. Light on the blocks and not a great field goal percentage for a PF/C player, but useful nonetheless.

In the Mavericks-Magic preseason game, Gooden showed how he can play a big role in limited minutes. He had 18 points and 6 boards and a block while shooting a high percentage in 22 minutes. Granted it is only preseason, but that also means that Gooden should most likely see more minutes as guys like Kris Humprhies, Jake Voshkuhl and James Singleton should not be seeing nearly as much court time during the regular season (they played a combined 47 mintes against the Magic).

Starting status doesn’t matter for fantasy basketball. What matters most is the distribution of minutes, as minutes are a prerequisite to having fantasy value. With Dampier approaching senior citizen status in the NBA while also being almost completely offensively inept, Gooden has a solid opportunity to carve out a 30+ minute per game role for himself.

In recent years, Gooden has not played alongside such a talented group of players. Say what you will about his age, but there are few floor generals as talented as Kidd. Throw in Dirk, Terry and Marion and Gooden should be seeing a lot of open looks as players double off of him. Drew is most effective as a complimentary, scoring big man off the bench, which appears to be exactly how Coach Carlisle plans on utilize him.

With the Mavericks looking like the legitimate third seed in the West (with the Lakers and Spurs taking the top two spots), Gooden looks like a solid late round pick (Buser Sports ADP of 170 and a Yahoo! O-Rank of 194) for managers looking to efficiently solidify their points and boards from a center-eligible player.