Sorry for the delay guys, but there was a football game yesterday and it happened to include my favorite team – the New Orleans Saints. With their monumental win, there had to be an equally impressive celebration on my part. Laissez le bon temps rouler!
Golden State Warriors fans had to be displeased watching Brandon Jennings take the League by storm right out of the gates this season knowing that their team passed him up to draft another promising young guard. However, they now understand why, as Stephen Curry has been playing at an incredibly high level amidst incredible adversity. Over the past month, Curry has posted first round value while averaging 19.5 points on .484/.879 percent shooting, 2.4 threes, 4.4 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.6 turnovers. Congratulations if you drafted Curry or snagged him off the wire early on in the season but this kid definitely deserves to be recognized for his outstanding play as of late.
Week 11 was dominated by the Gilbert Arenas saga finally coming to a head, leaving owners with tough decisions to make about whether to hold or fold their Agent Zero hand. More on that dilemma and the fantasy fallout below. Beyond that, we saw Danny Granger and Troy Murphy return to the starting lineup for the Pacers, altering the fantasy landscape in Indy for the thousandth time this season. Along with the Golden State Warriors, the Pacers have been one of the most unpredictable fantasy teams so far this season.
Season Tracker
The 2009-10 season is 44 percent complete.
Week 12 Schedules
Four Games: DET, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, NOR, NYK, OKC, PHX, SAS, UTA, WAS
Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, GSW, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, ORL, PHI, SAC, TOR
Two Games: NJN, POR
Add List (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)
Kirk Hinrich (PG/SG – 38%) For some inexplicable reason, Hinrich is still under the 40% ownership threshold despite being moved into the starting unit recently. In his eight starts this season, Hinrich averaged 12.1 points on .412/.769 percent shooting, 2.1 threes, 4.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.3 turnovers. Another key statistic to look at with Captain Kirk is his three point percentage, as the Bulls are desperate for outside shooting. As a reserve, he has shot a pedestrian .322 percent from downtown. As a starter, he has shot an impressive .459 from long range. Hinrich deserves pretty much universal roster consideration.
Erick Dampier (C – 37%) For the entire season, Dampier is putting up top-100 value while providing decent production for a third or fourth string center. His season averages are 8.0 points on .667/.582 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.4 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.2 turnovers. Dampier is a four category specialist (FG%, REB, BLK, TOs) while being a negative in the remaining five categories. He finally appears to be getting healthy again after having to deal with “wear-and-tear” of the left knee. Give Damp a go if you are looking for traditional big man stats and can handle his low scoring.
Ryan Gomes (SF/PF – 27%) There has been widespread speculation that Gomes would be moved into Minnesota’s starting five sometime relatively soon. Regardless of whether or not he is starting, Ryan should get enough burn to provide fantasy value, especially for those looking for decent scoring off the waiver wire. Over the past two games, Gomes has averaged 15.0 points on .458/.875 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 6.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Gomes, while normally primarily simply a scorer, has shown flashes of stat-stuffing. Add Ryan if you have a dropable player to see if he can improve upon his recent strong play.
Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 21%) Some players just don’t get much respect, whether it be in real life or in fantasy basketball. Apparently, Rasual Butler is one of those players as his actual value and ownership percentage are definitely out of whack. Over the past two weeks, a period that saw Butler play in six games and average over 34 minutes per game, he posted top-50 value. During that period Rasual averaged 12.8 points on .467/.857 percent shooting, 2.5 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.0 blocks and 0.5 turnovers. Butler is a nice glue guy, providing a nice boost in threes on low turnovers while also providing decent blocks for a guard-eligible player.
Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 21%) Another player that has had a nice run over the past two weeks is Matt Barnes. You may recall Barnes being featured in last week’s preview article by my distinguished colleague, RedHopeful. Pretty much everything Oleh said then still stands. Over the past two weeks, Matt has averaged 13.4 points on .600/.778 percent shooting,1.1 threes, 6.4 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.4 turnovers.
Rafer Alston (PG – 18%) Alston has to feel like the luckiest player in the NBA right now; it is an absolute certainty. Rafer was waived by the league’s worst team, the 3-33 New Jersey Nets, and signed with the 18-16 Miami Heat, who are currently the fifth best team in the East. In his first game in a Heat uniform (this season), he immediatley leap-frogged both Carlos Arroyo and Mario Chalmers and joined the starting unit. Skip is in line for big minutes for the Heat and should be a good choice for threes, assists and steals if you can handle his offensive field goal percentage.
Ronny Turiaf (PF/C – 6%) It’s always a gamble recommending any Golden State Warrior these days but Turiaf feels like a very strong player for a couple of reasons. First, Anthony “Everyone’s Favorite Sleeper” Randolph recently went down with an ankle injury with no official timetable released yet. However, the injury appears to be relatively serious so we can assume he’ll miss all of this week’s games. Second, fellow big man Andris Biedrins has struggled getting up to speed since returning from his groin injury that sidelined him for most of the season. By default, Turiaf becomes one of the Warriors primary big men in the rotation and he should be an excellent source of blocks off the wire.
Watch List
J.J. Redick (PG/SG – 16%) With Vince Carter out with an injured shoulder, Redick immediately gets upgraded to watch list status. In Carter’s absence, Redick posted a strong line against the Atlanta Hawks dropping 17 points on .583 percent shooting, 3 threes, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. He has even been praised by Coach Stan Van Gundy recently for his play throughout the entire season. In fact, Redick has been really solid over the past four games seeing over 28 minutes per and averaging 16.5 points on .422/.895 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks and 0.5 turnovers.
Flip Murray (SG – 5%) If you are looking for cheap scoring off the waiver wire, there may not be a better option out there than Murray. RIght now, Flip is locked-in and playing excellent basketball for the Bobcats. Over the past week, Ronald is ranked well inside of the top fifty players averaging 17.3 points on .550/.933 percent shooting, 2.8 threes, 2.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.5 turnovers in four games. His percentages are excellent, making his scoring and threes that much more valuable.
A.J. Price (PG/SG – 1%) A.J. officially proved that he belonged in this league after being selected in the second round of this season’s draft. Price set multiple career-highs against the Thunder on Saturday including minutes played, points scored and threes made. In that watershed game, Price posted 23 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 3 threes, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, o blocks and 2 turnovers. With the Pacers going nowhere this season and both Earl Watson and T.J. Ford playing themselves out of the rotation, Price is poised to carve himself a nice niche for the Pacers.
Deep League Special
Donte Greene (SG/SF – 4%) Greene’s window of opportunity is rapidly closing. With Kevin Martin due back sometime relatively soon, Greene will likely take a hit in touches, minutes and production. Thus, Donte should only be viewed as a short-term band-aid in deeper leagues. Over the past two weeks, he has put up top-100 value, making him an extremely valuable pickup in deep formats. In that same span, he averaged11.4 points on .489/1.00 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 2.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.6 blocks and 2.0 turnovers.
Keyon Dooling (PG – 2%) At this point in his career, Dooling is a proven commodity, with a decade of experience in the Association. Playing for a relatively young and inconsistent team, he is a veteran presence on and off the court. While he is still rounding into game shape after having offseason hip surgery, Dooling finally showed signs of life recently when he dropped 21 points on the Hornets on Friday. His career per-36 minute stats are 13.3 points on .420/.798 percent shooting, 1.o threes, 2.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.1 turnovers and are a good guide if Dooling were to consistently get big minutes either due to injury of a teammate or simply due to the inconsistent play of Devin Harris, Courtney Lee and Chris Douglas-Roberts.
Jon Brockman (SF/PF – 1%) If awesome nicknames were a fantasy category, the Brockness Monster would be a category carrier. But alas, we are left with having to rely on actual production on the basketball court. In that respect, Brockman’s toughness and football-like build have translated to him being an absolute beast on the boards and earning his fresh nickname (12.8 rebounds per-36 minutes). Recently, Brockman even got the starting nod against Denver pushing teammate and general fantasy disappointment Spencer Hawes to the bench. Grab the rebounding monster if you need help on the glass.
Cut List
Larry Hughes (SG/SF – 39%) The Knicks have won three of their last four games. Hughes has seen four consecutive DNP-CDs. Coincidence? I think not. Larry, welcome to Coach Mike D’Antoni’s dog house. Make yourself comfortable; you’re gonna be here a while.
Marreese Speights (PF/C – 20%) It is hard to recommend a player for cutting who posted such nice fantasy value earlier in the season. However, barring a trade involving either Elton Brand or Samuel Dalembert, Speights is most likely going to be without fantasy value. If you want further proof that his run is (for now) over, check out his minute totals for his past four games: 6:22; 9:51; 12:01 and 11:11.
Luther Head (PG/SG – 12%) What a difference a week can make. Last week, he was on our Add List. This week he is on our Cut List. That is Luther Head’s career in a nutshell.
Buy Low
Caron Butler (SG/SF – 98%) With Agent Zero suspended indefinitely, Butler has moved up the food chain a notch in Washington. Butler’s best seasons of fantasy value have come with Arenas on the sidelines so there is hope to believe that he will resume his productive ways of the past (top five in per game value in 2007-08 when Arenas only played 13 games; top 30 in per game in 2008-09 when Arenas only played two games). At this point in the season, Butler has posted only top-75 value so it is a decent bet that he will have a much better second half of the season with Arenas most like done for the year.
Pau Gasol (PF/C – 99%) It may be hard to consider top ten player a buy low but that is exactly the case with Pau. Having missed a decent number of games this season with hamstring injuries on both legs, many owners are getting tired of the Lakers’ kid glove treatment of Gasol. When owners are frustrated or are struggling in the standings, you can often get a good deal for the right player. Throw out a solid second-round talent for Pau and see if the other owner bites. You may end up with one of the best big men in both fantasy and in real life.
Sell High
Samuel Dalembert (C – 64%) The problem with selling high is that nobody wants to do it because owning a hot player is so much fun. It’s why we play fantasy sports. However, with a guy like Sammie, if you can get enough value for him you have to pull the trigger. Over the past two weeks, Dally has been a top five talent. Stop and let that sink in. TOP FIVE. During that span, he has averaged 10.9 points on .667/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.7 steals, 3.0 blocks and 1.0 turnovers. He will never be able to keep this pace up for the rest of the season, especially not with Eddie Jordan waiting in the wings to screw everything up. SD is the qunitessential sell high right now.
Lamar Odom (SF/PF – 89%) With Pau out for at least one more game, your window to move Odom for maximum value is limited. Over the past week, Odom has been positively beastly, putting up a rugged 14.0 points on .548/.700 percent shooting, 0.8 threes, 15.8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.0 turnover. Wow. In that span of four games, Odom has been a top ten player in per game value so throw out some trade offers and see if you can get a bona fide stud in return for Mr. Kardashian.
Mystery Man
Gilbert Arenas (PG – 73%) At only 73 percent ownership, the Great Arenas Exodus of 2010 has begun. Let’s face it, the chances of Gilbert playing again this season are slim. However, it is not so cut and dried as to whether he should be simply kicked to the curb; thus, Agent Zero is this week’s Mystery Man. In standard sized, non-keeper, head-to-head leagues Arenas can probably be safely dropped at this point. In roto leagues, where it is easier to carry dead weight, it probably makes sense to stick it out with Gil for a bit until we have more concrete timelines. In deeper formats, it makes more sense to hang on to Gibert if your team can afford to maintain a dead roster spot. Finally, in keeper and dynasty formats, dropping Arenas is not recommended until we hear exactly how harsh his final punsihment will be. Gilbert’s future with the Wizards and the League is truly a mystery at this point so weigh your options carefully before you decide to part ways with this dynamic guard.
Did we really have to learn it’s not cool pulling a gun on a teammate in the locker room? I’m looking at you Gilbert Arenas! There are rumors flying around that he’s going to miss serious time as it could be measured in months. Consequently, it’s no surprise this week’s mystery man has to be Randy Foye. He’s been a starter in the past so I’d assume Flip would be encouraged to go with him over any of Washington’s other point guards.
Week Eleven Schedules
Four Games: ATL, CHI, LAL, MEM, MIA, NJN, NOH, ORL, POR, UTA, WAS
Three Games: BOS, CHA, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAC, MIL, MIN, OKC, PHI, PHO, SAC, SAS, TOR
Two Games: NYK
ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard Yahoo! leagues)
Matt Barnes (SG/SF – 16%) – Matt’s stock has recently gone up since he was moved into the starting lineup. Stan Van Gundy has been singing his praises too so expect him to stick in place of Mickael Pietrus. In his 3 recent starts, he’s averaged 16.7 points, 1.7 3ptm, 7 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.3 TO’s. He’ll also contribute the occasional defensive numbers.
Omri Casspi (SG/SF/PF – 33%) – Casper has just been on a tear lately so I’m shocked he’s not more universally owned. In the last 13 games, he’s averaged a very cool 16.2 points, 1.8 3ptm, 5,8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, .6 steals and .4 blocks. With over 32 minutes a game, he’s also been very efficient shooting 48% from the field and 77.4% from the charity stripe with only 1.4 turnovers. I don’t see a return of Kevin Martin ending his value either as Westy is likely to move him over to SF.
Nick Collison (PF/C – 5%) – If you don’t mind anti-glamor types, give Nick a look. Since returning from injury, his minutes have been steadily trending upwards and it appears Scott Brooks is most comfortable with him over both Nenad Krstic and Serge Ibaka. In the last 5 games, he’s averaged 9.4 points (on 70.8 FG% and 68.4 FT%), 7 rebounds and 1 block.
Luther Head (PG/SG – 9%) – Here we go recommending another Pacer again but you gotta figure we’re due to get one right! Actually, there is a good chance he’ll revert back into some sort of inconsistent mess considering his track record, but why not ride him now? He’s easily been the most productive wing player for O’Brien so look for him to continue to get minutes. The last 3 games as a starter he’s averaged 23 points, 2.3 3ptm, 4.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 steals.
Juwan Howard (SF/PF/C – 10%) – Here is what I like to call a “process of elimination” player. Simply put, the Blazers best big man is this 36 year old who was drafted by the Washington Bullets. The last 6 games, Juwan has averaged 9 points (on 57.4 FG%), 7.8 rebounds, 1.0 steals and 1.8 TO’s. Considering LaMarcus Aldridge is hobbled with an ankle sprain, Howard is well worth a spin during this upcoming 4 game week.
CUT LIST
Mario Chalmers (PG – 49%) – Sadly, it’s about time for owners to let Mario go as one of my favorite preseason targets has been an enormous letdown. Most likely, his fate is about to be sealed as Miami is probably going to guarantee Carlos Arroyo’s contract for the rest of the season. When that happens, Mario’s role as a reserve (6.3 points, .4 3ptm, 1.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists) looks to be close to permanent.
TJ Ford (PG – 43%) – Seems like Ford has finally hit rock bottom as he’s recently been demoted to 3rd string point guard for the lowly Indiana Pacers. What’s worse is he claims in the linked article that he didn’t get an explanation for being removed from the rotation. Uh, TJ, quit playing dumb.
Peja Stojakovic (SG/SF – 67%) – Since Christmas, Peja has fallen off a cliff (averaging under 5 points a game, 1 three, 3 rebounds and 1 assist in 4 games). In addition to the obvious slump, his back has started to act up on him again. Considering, he’s had chronic problems the last few years, don’t hold your breath he’ll be right as rain after a few days of rest.
WATCH LIST
DeJuan Blair (SF/PF/C – 14%) – Blair’s adjustment as a starter hasn’t gone as smoothly as most of us had hoped as his minutes and numbers have been up and down since being handed this juicy role back on December 21. His uninspiring averages of 7.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, .6 steals and .7 blocks over that period have resulted in Theo Ratliff getting the start in Sunday’s game against Toronto. However, it’s hard to throw in the towel on a kid who usually doesn’t need much time to put a fantasy worthy line.
Andray Blatche (PF/C – 33%) – “Seven Day Dray” started the season off with a bang thanks to an Antawn Jamison shoulder injury. However, as expected, he faded back into obscurity when he became a role player again. With the Wizards lackluster play, Flip gave Blatche a start in their last game against the Spurs. Coach is looking for an increase in paint production, but we all know Dray loves to shoot too many jumpers. If he does heed Flip’s wishes, he could be worth owning again.
Rasual Butler (SG/SF – 15%) – Managers looking for an interim boost in scoring should look Rasual’s way. Over the last ten games, he’s averaged 14.5 points, 2.4 3ptm, 3.2 rebounds and 1 block on excellent shooting (48.7 FG% and 91.7 FT%). More importantly, he has replaced Al Thornton as the team’s starting small forward. Just remember to temper your expectations as Butler likes to disappear and Blake Griffin’s return is getting nearer.
Quentin Richardson (SG/SF – 18%) – Q has got to be this season’s Jekyll/Mr. Hyde winner. Case in point, just glance at the boxscore of his last two games. Against the Spurs, 0 points and 3 rebounds. Against the Bobcats, 20 points (6 3ptm) and 5 rebounds. I literally prefer to just watch Qrich, but he could be worth a look for a team either feeling lucky or in dire need of 3ptm.
STAY THE COURSE
Courtney Lee (SG/SF – 50%) – Mr. Lee’s averages have been quite pedestrian thus far this season: 11.5 points, .6 3ptm, 3.7 rebounds and 1.9 assists. Lately, his numbers have shown a bit of a decline which is most likely due to the fact that Yi Jianlian and Chris Douglas-Roberts are back playing big minutes to go alongside Devin Harris and Brook Lopez. Despite this, I still recommend you hang onto him. That perimeter shooting is bound to improve as he’s always been considered an excellent shot. Moreover, he provides a significant amount of steals (1.7) to go along with very low turnvoers (1.1).
Charlie Villanueva (SF/PF – 84%) – Without a doubt, there is cause for alarm as his recent 6 game averages are woeful: 4.7 points, .3 3ptm, 3.5 rebounds and .5 blocks. As the roster is finally getting healthy around him, Kuester’s manlove for Jonas Jerebko and his plantar fasciitis are all attempting to stand in his way of solid production. However, things will turn around as he sat down with the Coach and figured out what he needed to do. The outcome? He played 28 minutes in the Piston’s last game against the Bulls while Jerebko 19.
DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS
Glen Davis (PF/C – 4%) – With Kevin Garnett out for a minimum of 10 days, the Celtic’s need Big Baby. Rasheed Wallace isn’t accustomed to playing huge starter’s minutes and Kendrick Perkins usually struggles with foul trouble. Expect at least a few games of solid points, boards and steals in the near future.
Wayne Ellington (PG/SG – 1%) – Are we ready to proclaim it Wayne’s World? No, but his role is undeniably increasing in Minnesota as evidenced by the uptick in his minutes recently. Considering how the team is in need of a solid perimeter threat, Coach Rambis must be excited this rookie is finally putting things together. If you’re in a deep league and would like to bump up the scoring categories, give him a try. He set a new season high of 16 points and 3 3ptm in their last game.
MYSTERY MAN
Randy Foye (PG/SG – 31%) – As I mentioned earlier, Gilbert Arenas supposedly pulled the knucklehead move of the year by playing with a gun in the Wizard’s locker room. Consequently, stiff penalties await and he could leave a mammoth hole for a lengthy period of time. Enter Randy. Even though Flip has shown a preference to Earl Boykins certain games, it is highly unlikely the 5 foot 5 inch guard could handle the starting duties. Meanwhile Randy has played huge minutes at the point in Minnesota providing solid points, 3ptm, assists and steals. Be ready to pounce if any new developments regarding any suspensions crop up.
Coming into this NBA season, the New Jersey Net’s expectations were low. However, no one expected them to challenge ineptitude of historic proportions. The Nets recent loss to the Dallas Mavericks resulted in being associated with the distinct dishonor of the worst start by any franchise in NBA history. Worse than any expansion team or some historical bad franchise like the Clippers. Even though they’ve recently broken through with a win, will putting their worst leg(s) forward hurt the team beyond this season?
Just How Bad Have Things Been?
To put it bluntly, the Nets have been awful. They have the worst offensive rating (94.7), the worst points per game (87.60), the worst FG% (41.0) and the worst assists (16.25). Most of their losses haven’t even been close as their point differential stands a little over 10 points per game (only Minnesota is worse).
To be fair, at one point they only had one original starter available for a period of time. Devin Harris, Yi Jianlian, Chris Douglas-Roberts and Courtney Lee have all missed time for various aliments. One of these players, CDR, was the first NBA player infected with the swine flu. Prior to their first win against Charlotte, this foursome had missed 34 games out of a possible 72. Don’t forget that it takes time to get back into the swing of things such as chemistry and conditioning.
Can’t also discount they’ve had some key role players miss the majority of the season: Tony Battie, Keyon Dooling, Jarvis Hayes and Eduardo Najera. Without a solid bench, it’s no wonder this patchwork team has been tragic against the rest of the NBA. The New Jersey Nets probably wish they had as many healthy legs as their cheerleaders.
Did Management Stoke the Fire?
Coming into the season, the Nets had no established veterans – star or even borderline. Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter had all been traded away. However, a number of followers and writers proclaimed this was a good thing. New Jersey had some promising young talent including a potentially fantastic PG and C. More importantly, they would have about 25 million in available cap space for 2010. As you’re probably aware, there are some fantastic names that may be available in free agency including Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire.
There does lie a problem with this thinking – it’s a year away. For 2009, most experts predicted they’d finish at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Nothing new here as I’m sure most of us felt the same. With obvious turmoil looming, why then was Lawrence Frank fired?
I guess it’s Lawrence’s fault that they wanted to go young and [clear] cap space and that everybody got hurt,” Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said Sunday night, before his team beat another one that is dangerously walking the 2010 tightrope, the Knicks. “Maybe he was banging them up in practice, taking a baseball bat to them or something. I just know that with the lineups he’s had to put on the floor, I don’t think any coach would’ve done anything better than he’s done.”
Source: CBS Sports
Pretty hard to disagree with Stan’s assessment when considering the roster and all the injuries they’ve had to deal with thusfar. However, were there issues going on out of the public eye? Apparently, yes.
Sources said Nets management had come to believe that Frank had lost much of the team, a fact that has played out in losses to Denver and Sacramento in the past week. Once the Nets played so poorly against the Kings – believed to be the most winnable game on the trip – management decided it could no longer go on with Frank as coach.
Despite the return of point guard Devin Harris and shooting guard Courtney Lee, the Nets have played long stretches of uninspired basketball. “Most of the guys have tuned him out,” one source with direct knowledge of the locker room environment said. “This isn’t all Lawrence’s fault, but everyone knows that this can’t go on anymore.”
Source: Adrian Wojnarowski
Beat writers close to the Nets also observed that Frank and Devin Harris were not seeing eye to eye.
“In the times I’ve been here, I’ve been so (angry) because of a lack of effort,” Frank said last week. “But these guys are giving virtually everything they’ve got.”
But they didn’t give him the effort lately and he had to go. Now, the next coach will have to coax more team play out of Devin Harris, who had problems with Frank’s controlling style and has gained the reputation of being a solo act.
“Last year we had Vince Carter and he was a positive influence on the young guys,” said one team official. “But he’s not here, and it hurts because the coach and point guard are not on the same page.”
Source: Mitch Lawrence
Consequently, it’s not surprising the Nets let Frank go. At least, they fired him before they set the all-time record so that his name wouldn’t have to be associated with it.
Therefore, on the surface, it would seem they’ve made the correct moves. There is one thing still bothering me though. Did they consider the consequences if this team loses too many games?
Will a really bad record have long term effects?
We’ll examine two aspects to gauge possible long term affect:
1) How historically poor teams fare with rosters primarily consisting of talented youth in following years.
2) How many big time free agents signed with historically bad teams in following seasons.
1) First, we’ll examine how promising teams reacted to severely disappointing seasons. Specifically, we’ll look at the 1993-94 Dallas Mavericks, 1999-00 Chicago Bulls and the 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers. These teams were chosen because they were all in the midst of serious rebuilding with promising youth with a significant stretch of poor play.
The 1993-94 Mavericks team finished with a 13-69 record, but they were best known for posting a 2-39 record (OUCH) through the midpoint of the season. The team wasn’t completely devoid of talent as they had two promising but young 19 point scorers in Jim Jackson and Jamal Mashburn. So how dire did it get?
You hear about it and read about it, but words cannot really describe the hopelessness down here. At one point last night, the Dallas Mavericks called a 20-second timeout and spent a good 15 seconds trudging back to the huddle, defeated.
At courtside, owner Donald Carter sat in his hideous shirt and his jeans and his 10-gallon hat, cheering his team wildly while it was 15 down. The latest news? Jimmy Jackson says he’ll never, ever, EVER sign with the Mavs, no matter how many faxes they send.
Source: Encyclopedia.com
Well Jim ended up staying (contracts will do that to you), but the Mavericks continued to flounder by averaging close to a 27-55 record the next 4 years. This is impressive despite drafting win-producer Jason Kidd. It seemed that the 3 J’s were destined to be part of a great future, but this wasn’t the case. In 1996-97, all three were traded away as the team decided to go in a new direction under Don Nelson.
The 1999-00 Chicago Bulls finished with a 17-65 record, a few seasons removed from the Jordan era. The team did have some promising rookies in Elton Brand and Ron Artest while bringing in John Starks and Bruce Bowen after trading away Toni Kukoc during the season. The following season the Bulls drafted/acquired Brad Miller, Jamal Crawford, Marcus Fizer and Ron Mercer, but this time they won only 15 games including losing a franchise worst 21 straight games on the road.
Overall, the promise never amounted to anything as the team averaged a 22-60 during the four year stretch after the 1999-2000 season. The overriding theme seemed to be concentrating on youth without enough experience as they fell into a pattern gambling on youth that failed to pan out including Eddy Curry, Tyson Chandler and Jay Williams.
The 1999-00 Los Angeles Clippers were able to collect some talent after two horrendous years. However, Lamar Odom, Derek Anderson, Maurice Taylor and Michael Olowokandi only managed 15 wins while starting the season with a then NBA record of 17 straight losses.
On paper, this team’s untapped talent and balance — four players averaging more than 13 points per game, and arguably the largest collection of “he’s-got-great-upside” players — belies its results.
Source: NBA.com
In the following years, they garnered an impressive amount of talent on paper: Darius Miles, Quentin Richardson, Corey Maggette, Elton Brand and Andre Miller. Guess what, all these young guys managed to contribute an average W/L record of 31-51 the following four years.
Now, there have been some deviations from the norm when franchises have decided to completely entrust their future in youth. Namely, the Portland Trail Blazers come to mind. After blowing up the Jail Blazers and some troubling players the next few years, they appear to be ready to challenge the league’s best for years to come. However, it would appear it takes a special bunch of players like Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge among others to make it happen.
Therefore, where does this leave the current Nets? Coming into this year, there were no illusions, but there was hope that the Nets had put together a solid young core. However, Dave Berri of The Wages of Win Journal made an interesting analysis of the Net’s franchise. Basically, when Jason Kidd has not been on their team, they’ve been a bad team and his predictions don’t have anything changing that.
In addition, their terrible start is already affecting their morale:
“We don’t have any heart,” Chris Douglas-Roberts, the second-year guard, said. “It’s like we’re laying down. Weak. It’s a sign of weakness.”
Douglas-Roberts said the word was out on his team: “All you got to do is come out, punch them in the mouth and they’ll give up and run with their tail between their legs.”
Although the Nets were decimated by injuries early in the streak, they are nearly back to whole. Yet the fight they briefly showed in close defeats in early November is nonexistent.
“The spirit’s been broken a little bit,” said guard Devin Harris, the Nets’ lone All-Star.
Source: New York Times
Uh-oh – hopefully, this is just a fleeting attitude and the Nets can put together a lot of solid performances. Otherwise, you’ve got to believe they’ll continue to be tested mentally as other historically bad teams and it will take all their effort to stay together and focused on a common goal.
2) A second method of attempting to change years of bad fortune is through free agency. A key signing or two could significantly change a team’s outlook. However, there are multiple obstacles to this theory. Poorly performing teams seem to have trouble acquiring or keeping top talent.
Let’s look at the top 30 players by salary (all over $14M). 15 of them are on teams that had over a .600 win% (50+ wins), while just 3 of them are on sub-.400 teams. In other words, the most successful teams employed 1.67 of these elite players on average, while the worst teams employed just 0.375 elite players.
Source: Hawkonomics
These statistics were compiled from last year’s payroll and performance. One can gleam two likely scenarios for this disparity. One, top players usually have choices in their destination; thus, they choose to play for a winning team that gives them a shot for a championship. Two, poor performing teams usually suffer from the lack of capital necessary to sign major free agents. Media outlets aren’t interested to pay top dollar to carry broadcasts while businesses and fans aren’t interested in sinking money for tickets, suites and other endeavors.
In one of the other historically bad teams we analyzed, the Chicago Bulls attempted to go the free agency route:
Remember, the summer of 2000 was supposed to be it. Actually, scratch that, Chicago had big designs on the summer of 1999, if we’re honest. And, if we’re to be completely accurate, the summer of 1998 was supposed to see all sorts of free agents flock to Chicago to eat up the team’s cap space. The summer of 1998 didn’t happen, for anyone. GM Jerry Krause saw the writing on the wall when most FAs signed with their old teams for more money in the truncated post-lockout offseason, and after talking up the 1999 offseason, he decided to make a few more cap-clearing moves and parlay that money (and two lottery picks) to the 2000 offseason.
Source: ChicagoNow
As we can observe, the free agency route failed the post-Jordan Bulls. Players obviously had no desire to come to Chicago despite the apparent available capital. Therefore, what is there to ensure the same won’t happen to the Nets? They’re off to a horrendous start, have historically been a well below average team and have put all their faith into a roster comprised of largely unproven young players.
However, the Nets do have two things in their favor. First, it appears the long proposed move to Brooklyn will definitely happen. Second, the Nets also have a new principal owner – Mikhail Prokhorov – one of the wealthiest men in the world. Playing in the most dynamic sports city in American coupled with the deepest pockets can potentially bring in a top player or two.
They want a basketball team in Brooklyn – but not this one.
After the New Jersey Nets broke the record Wednesday night for starting an NBA season with the most consecutive losses – 18 – some borough sports fans had a message for owner Bruce Ratner as he tries to bring the team to Brooklyn: Start winning or don’t bother.
“I don’t want an 0-and-18 team coming to New York, especially to Brooklyn,” said Assane Ethols, 21, a Canarsie security guard. “It’s go hard or go home here.”
Source: New York Daily News
It looks like a lot DOES ride on this season so let’s hope the current group starts playing better.
The biggest storyline fantasy circles during week four had to be the return of Elton Brand. Over the first ten games of the season, Brand’s owners have practically had to be on suicide watch. Over the past week, however, Brand has been the second best player in fantasy basketball, period (averaged 19.3 points on .523/.867 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 10.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.7 steals, 3.7 blocks and 2.0 turnovers over the past three games). That is a vintage EB line right there.
Another couple of big names made their season debuts this past week as Antawn Jamison and Pau Gasol both made big splashes in their season debuts. Jamison immediately showed everyone why he is one of the most under-appreciated players in fantasy basketball, averaging 22.7 points on .490/.591 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 9.7 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.3 turnovers in three games this season. Gasol also reminded owners why they spent such a high draft pick on him, posting 24 points on .600/1.00 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 0.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 2.o turnovers in his season debut. Welcome back, fellas.
Other owners were not so lucky last week, with Mike Miller, Andrew Bogut, Jameer Nelson, Erick Dampier and Raja Bell all going down with varying injuries and ailments. For more early season excitement, we also had the first in-season trade of the 2009-10 season sending Stephen Jackson and Acie Law to the Bobcats sending Raja Bell and Valdimir Radmanovic to the Warriors. With week four almost in the books, it is time to look ahead and strategize for week five.
Week Five Schedules
Four Games: DAL, DEN, LAC, MEM, MIL, MIN, NJN, NYK, ORL, PHI, POR, SAC, SAN, TOR
Three Games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CLE, DET, GSW, HOU, IND, LAL, MIA, OKC, PHX, UTA, WAS
Two Games: CHI, NOH
ADD LIST (players owned in 40% or less in standard yahoo leagues)
Dahntay Jones (SG/SF – 40%) This season can definitely be labeled a breakout season for Dahntay in Indy, as he is posting career-highs in virtually every single statistical category after signing with the Pacers. For Jones, ride him while he is hot as he should only face increased competition for minutes as the Pacers return to full strength (most notably Mike Dunleavy). Surprisingly, Jones has been effective on both offense and defense (2.0 steals and 1.7 blocks and 19.7 points on .525 percent shooting over the past three).
Drew Gooden (PF/C – 26%) With Dampier out indefinitely with a mystery illness, Gooden has responded in a beastly manner. Over the past week, Gooden has posted averages of 14.8 points on .500/.818 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 13.0 rebounds, 0.3 assists, 0.3 steals, 1.3 blocks and 1. turnovers. Those are very nice numbers for a center three pulled off the waiver wire. Gooden deserves a universal add for his recent strong production.
Jared Dudley (SF/PF – 19%) Dudley is a player that most casual NBA fans are probably not familiar with but would be if he played for a prime-time team like the Lakers. His a role player that stays on the court through pure hustle and effort in the 2008-09 Trevor Ariza mold. Despite the low ownership numbers, Dudley has been climbing up the fantasy rankings (93rd overall in per game value according to Ziguana) with his potent combination of threes and steals with low turnovers.
Steve Blake (PG – 16%) It appears Blake has won Portland’s point guard battle (fow now) making him rosterable if you need assists, threes and free throw percentage. Over the past week, Blake has put up top-1oo value and played 35 minutes per game with free agent addition Andre Miller outside of the top 200 and averaging 25 minutes per game. I’m not cutting Miller in standard leagues yet, but am getting pretty damn close. The only question left is why Portland paid Miller over $20 million over three years to run their second unit? For a team that has seemingly made all the right moves lately, it just seems like they made the move for the sake of making a move and not because it was the best fit for their team.
Ersan Ilyasova (SF/PF – 15%) In his second stint in the NBA, Ilyasova is starting to prove that he belongs in the League and that he deserves universal ownership. Over the past week, Ersan has put up top fifty value averaging 14.8 points on .488/.727 percent shooting, 2.3 threes, 9.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers in four games. This combination of threes and boards from a forward is a very nice addition without having to sacrifice too much in either of the percentages. His strong play has most likely solidified his spot in the Bucks’ starting lineup (started the past three games).
CUT LIST
Jonny Flynn (PG/SG – 78%) With rookies learning the game at the highest level, efficiency and minutes are usually the main impediments to fantasy value. In Flynn’s case, he has gotten decent minutes (28.4 per game in 13 games this season) but has had serious problems with the efficiency. For reference, Flynn has shot .442 percent from the field (.250 percent from three point land) while also averaging more turnovers than assists (3.5 to 3.2 per game). Add in the fact that Ramon Sessions is a more experienced player and actually has some pretty serious game and Flynn is looking more like a long-term project and less like an immediate impact player. Cut bait.
Andray Blatche (PF/C – 48%) Bulletproof had one hell of a run to start this season. With Jamison out with a preseason shoulder injury, Andray stepped it up in a big way posting top-100 value for the first few weeks. Since Antawn’s return to the Wizards’ starting lineup, Blatche’s minutes have dropped considerably (17, 15, 25 minutes in his past three games) and his status has been demoted from universal ownership to waiver wire wonder. Thank him for his service and be ready to pick him up again in the event of another injury to a Wizards forward.
STAY THE COURSE
John Salmons (SG/SF – 87%) John Salmons giveth and he taketh away. This week, Salmons gave two strong performances back-to-back and then followed them up with a stinker. In fact, last week saw the only two game streak in which Salmons shot .500 percent or greater from the field. However, his .182 percent shooting night on Saturday abruptly brought an end to Salmons owners’ happiness. As with before, the counting stats are there but his shooting efficiency has been terrible (.345 this season versus .444 career). Don’t trade Salmons for an inferior player.
Stephen Curry (PG/SG – 66%) Since S-Jax was unceremoniously sent packing last week, Curry has posted some of the best numbers of his career. Over the past week, Curry has averaged 13.0 points on .448/.800 percent shooting, 1.7 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.3 blocks and 3.3 turnovers. The turnovers are a definite concern but as long as he is providing decent counting stats on good percentages it is palatable.
DEEP LEAGUE SPECIALS
Jason Williams (PG – 17%) Another season and another injury for Jameer Nelson. This one (meniscus) promises to keep Nelson on the bench for at least a month. This means second-string point man White Chocolate is now the starting point guard in Orlando and deserves consideration in deep leagues. If the Magic do not end up trading for another PG or signing a free agent floor general, Williams could eventually play his way into wider ownership. Sunday’s 16 point, 5 rebound, 3 assist performance is a step in that direction.
Terrence Williams (SG/SF/PF – 18%) Williams has had a roller-coaster ride of a rookie season so far with his team win-less through thirteen games. Terrence has shown why he was drafted eleventh overall in the 2009 NBA Draft. Williams’ last couple of games have been promising and he could be positively affected by the return of Devin Harris. Williams is worth picking up at this point in deep leagues to see if he can continue and build upon his recent strong play.
Darren Collison (PG/SG – 13%) / Marcus Thornton (PG/SG – 3%) These two Hornets guards have both been on our watch list before and most certainly would have been upgraded to the Add List if it wasn’t for the Hornets’ week upcoming schedule. With Chris Paul down for at least a few more weeks, both of these players can provide interim help in the short-term in different categories. If you are looking for assists, points, threes and free throw percentage give Collison a look. If you are looking for threes, points and field goal percentage with low turnovers give the other Thornton an add.
WATCH LIST
James Harden (PG/SG – 33%) With two strong games back-to-back, Harden is one player that may have turned the corner. Sunday’s contest against the Lakers will be a good heat check for Harden. If the rookie posts another strong line in under 30 minutes, he deserves roster consideration. In the past two games, Harden averaged 24.5 points on .600/.900 percent shooting, 5.0 threes per game, 3.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.5 steals, 0.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. Obviously he is going to cool off a bit, but if he can put up numbers anywhere close to this consistently he’d be worthy of a roster spot in all formats.
Omri Casspi (SF/PF – 3%) Another rookie coming off of a strong performance against the over-acheiving Rockets is Sacramento Kings forward Omri Casspi. Casspi set a career-high in scoring going for 17 points on .400/1.00 percent shooting, 1 three, 8 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 0 blocks and 1 turnover. Casspi also posted a career-high in minutes, which is a trend to keep an eye on. If the minutes come consistently for Casspi, he should have no problem putting up fantasy-relevant numbers. For now just monitor the situation and be prepared to act if his minutes continue to trend upward.
In deep keeper leagues and dynasty formats, the players that come out on top year after year are those that relentlessly search for any advantage and leverage it fully. In that spirit, it is always nice to get the early word on a promising prospect to put on your watch list for the next couple of years. Look no further than rookie point guard, Rodrigue Beaubois.
The 6′2″, 182 pound playground phenom was discovered by Mikael Pietrus in in their native Guadeloupe, France. Air France took quick notice of Roddy and his impressive physical skills on the court. The first time you have the opportunity to see Beaubois run the floor, you get to see just how damn fast this kid is. We are talking Leandro Barbosa or Devin Harris quickness here. Anytime you see someone with that kind of explosiveness, you immediately think of the high potential for steals (fantasy gold).
As most NBA fans have never seen this kid play, what is the scouting report on Beaubois?
Unsatisfied with just Jose Juan Barea as a lightning-quick foreign point guard, the Mavericks used their first-round pick on 21-year-old Frenchman Rodrigue Beaubois. Beaubois has a fascinating set of physical tools at his disposal; at the pre-draft combine, his wingspan was measured at 6′ 9 3/4″ and he posted a 39-inch vertical leap. Where Beaubois is still apparently a work in progress us in terms of running an offense and creating for teammates. Still, he impressed at the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas, putting up a 34-point game and averaging 17.0 ppg and 3.8 apg with solid shooting numbers. If Beaubois plays well in camp, he’s got the chance to push Barea for backup minutes at the point. If not, he’s got time to learn as the heir apparent to Jason Kidd.
Source: 2009-10 Pro Basketball Prospectus
Beaubois’ amazing physical gifts will allow Roddy to be a big time scorer in the League one day. The only reservations are whether he can learn to distribute the ball and initiate an offense effectively. If he can learn to balance the two duties, in the Tony Parker or Devin Harris mold perhaps (although hopefully not as injury-prone), he will have a long career in the NBA.
Take a look at a recent preseason game against the Bullets. In just over 20 minutes Roddy tallied 14 points on .500/.667 percent shooting, 2 threes, 0 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals, 0 blocks and 1 turnover. From observing the damage Beaubois did in limited minutes against Washington, Roddy’s potential becomes apparent. Again, notice the penchant for steals, even in only 20 minutes.
So why isn’t Roddy a legitimate fantasy pick right now if he is so talented?
Two words: Jason Kidd.
At the young age of 35 last season, Kidd played a very respectable 35 minutes per game while appearing in 81 games. Beaubois is strictly limited to playing point, as he is certainly too frail and short to play the two guard. Thus, Roddy should not regularly see over twenty minutes again next season. Instead, he should see extended time in garbage time.
But the silver lining is that through all of this, Roddy gets to learn and practice against the best point guard of past ten years, Jason Kidd. As a rookie point guard in the NBA, backing up Kidd is akin to being chosen to be a Rhodes Scholar; you get to learn from the best.
Barring an injury to Kidd, Roddy should not see enough minutes to post solid fantasy value next season. Kidd, Barea and the criminally underrated Jason Terry will all also be logging minutes at the point for Dallas next season. In fact Beaubois will more than likely serve some time in the NBA equivalent of detention; the D-League.
For managers in dynasty or deep keeper formats looking for that extra edge, put Beaubois on your real life watch list and pay special attention to the Mavericks’ garbage time. As Beaubois develops and adjusts to the Association (and hopefully bulks up a bit too), he should be a fantasy asset for the managers wise enought to spot the proverbial diamond in the rough.
This is the second installment of BFFA’s injury risk series for the upcoming season (now only days away). As in Part One, the same disclaimers apply; not all in injury prone players will be covered and the criteria to determine who is an injury risk is not an exact science. Let’s take a look at a couple of Eastern Conference point guards in the latest edition of Injury Risks.
First up is New Jersey floor general Devin Harris. Harris burst onto the fantasy scene last year after being a backup in Dallas for a number of years. In his first full season as a starter for the Nets, Devin provided an extremely potent stat line for his fantasy owners, averaging 21.3 points on .438/.820 percent shooting, 0.9 threes, 6.9 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.7 steals, 0.2 blocks and 3.1 turnovers. This year he is definitely not under the radar anymore and will be gone by the end of the second round in most leagues (Buser Sports average draft position of 18th overall and 24th in Yahoo! drafts). His production and value cannot be questioned but his ability to stay on the court can be.
Its only preseason but the past few weeks the word out of New Jersey has been that Harris has already been bothered by a few minor injuries. Currently, Harris is rehabbing a strained groin muscle sustained on Tuesday, which should keep him out a game or two of preseason action. He has also rolled his right ankle and sprained his left ankle already this preseason.
So for those of you keeping track, this is injury number three before we have even begun playing games that matter. Speaking recently about his injuries, Harris seems to be almost content to just be injured for an unspecified time, almost as if he is used to being hurt.
“I can only control what I can control on the floor,” Harris said of his reputation for being injury-prone. “Things happen. I don’t know why they happen. You put all the time in the summer. Sometimes nagging things happen.”
And as for his occasional tendency to turn the art of basketball into demolition derby, he replied, “That’s my thing. That’s just what I do. That’s how I play. I enjoy doing it. I enjoy the contact…”Small nagging ones like this, no,” Harris said. “Usually I’m like the big hurt.”
Source: New Jersey Star-Ledger
It seems like he is warming fans up to the idea that he is definitely not going to be playing anywhere near 82 games this season. His ability to be a fantasy standout comes from his quickness and his agility, which allows him to blow by opposing guards get into the lane and either score or earn a trip to the charity stripe. He is not an elite shooter (career 45 percent from the field), so his tendency for ankle and hamstring injuries really limits his explosiveness and therefore his effectiveness.
He has only played in 80 games only once in his five year career (his third season, 2006-07). This came after missing 26 games the previous season including 24 of which that were directly attributable to strained right quadriceps. The past two seasons he has played in 64 and 69 games, an average of 66.5 games per season. That is an awfully low average for a number one point guard and could easily put your hopes of having a shiny fantasy trophy in jeopardy.
The next injury risk we will be touching on in this installment is another small-ish point guard, T.J. Ford. This year, Ford has a new lease on life. He no longer has to share the point guard duties with Jarrett Jack, who was shipped to Toronto (although Earl Watson was acquired). This season, the Pacers are his team to run and he seems ready to make full use of his new-found health and permanent starter status.
Ford had a career year last season while splitting time at the point with Jack; he averaged 14.9 points on .452/.872 percent shooting, 0.5 threes, 5.3 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks and 2.4 turnovers. He also managed to stay healthy and played in 74 games, the second most of his career (he played in 75 his third season). He is slowly moving up draft boards this year (Buser Sports average draft position of 94.2) and is a highly targeted middle tier PG.
With his new-found starter status comes some fantasy disclaimers. Ford has a long list of very serious health problems to consider before drafting. He is afflicted with a condition known as spinal stenosis, which is a narrowing of the openings of the vertebra the spinal cord runs through. This condition causes a great amount of inflammation and pain in the back, obviously not good for a professional basketball player. This condition attributed to Ford missing the playoffs and the final 26 games of his rookie season in Milwaukee after he suffered a bruised spinal cord.
His other injuries are numerous. He went on to miss his entire sophomore campaign while recovering from neck surgery in 2004-05. He missed six games in ‘07 as the result of a “stinger” sustained to his left arm after colliding with Josh Howard. Then in December of 2007 while playing with the Raptors, Ford was the recipient of a hard flagrant foul by Al Horford which caused his head to be slammed into the court. Ford missed almost two months recovering from his injury, allowing Jose Calderon to slip in and pilfer his starting spot and gain widespread fantasy fame.
Coming off of one his most productive seasons in his career (2006-07 season was very solid as well), look for T.J. Ford to be healthy and ready to step in as full time starter. But with such a fragile frame (listed at 6′0 165 lbs.) and extensive injury history, even the smallest collision could lead to long-term injury. For that reason, Ford will be a lifetime member of the injury-prone club. Buyer beware.
In competitive fantasy leagues, it’s never too early to start to identify potential sleepers for next season. Even though almost anything can change over the next two months, some players are already emerging as potential studs or breakout candidates for 2009-10.
The recipe for a potential sleeper is never the same. Sometimes it is true progression as a player, other times a trade or injury opens up minutes for a player. It can even be a truly unexplainable phenomenon. Whatever the reason, breakout players are essential to securing the ever-elusive hardware when playing against other knowledgeable managers.
Let’s break the potential sleepers into three groups: the guards, the forwards and the centers. With the guards and the forwards down, only the centers remain.
Brook Lopez — Next to Anthony Randolph, Lopez is this summer’s other worst kept secret. Knowledgeable fantasy managers across the country are excited. And for good reason, too. Lopez and Devin Harris are the Nets’ de facto franchise players, as both have already proven to be extremely talented.
Lopez’s rookie season was outstanding and mirrors another franchise center’s rookie averages to a remarkable degree. Check out rookie season comparisons for Brook Lopez and Yao Ming. In particular, compare the two players’ per-36 minute stats. It’s interesting that Brook actually had a higher field goal percentage than Yao did as a rook.
In real life, Yao was better than Brook. For evidence of that in his statline, compare Yao’s and Brook’s defensive rating, which is a measure of points allowed per 100 possessions (D-Rating). Check out Yao’s D-Rating of 100 compared to Lopez’s D-Rating of 110. Clearly, Yao as a rookie was a much better defender than Brook was last season.
However in fantasy, who is better in real life doesn’t matter and who is the better defender doesn’t matter either. Stats matter and the numbers say that in terms of fantasy production, the Yao-Lopez comparison is within reason. So what did Yao’s statline look like in his second season? His points per game jumped from 13.5 to 17.5 and his efficiency from the floor jumped as well from solid .498 to very respectable .522 from the center position.
If Lopez’s fantasy numbers follow a similar path as Yao’s, he is bound to be a fantasy sleeper that is sure to fulfill his promise and potential. Just be ready to reach for Brook, as his average draft position in competitive leagues (according to Matt Buser’s August 31, 2009 ADP Report) is 28th overall. And in a keeper leagues, Lopez’s value is exponentially higher.
Emeka Okafor — As it’s been chronicled at BFFA in the past, Okafor should consider himself one of the luckiest men alive. He is going to be playing alongside the league’s most talented and exciting point guard, Chris Paul. As far as the current group of active point guards is concerned, the debate is about who is second, not first. CP3 is just that good.
It is widely speculated that Okafor’s numbers will improve playing alongside Paul but what kind of fantasy production can we realistically expect from Okafor next season?
Take a look at Okafor’s career statistics, with the idea of using these numbers as a sort of pre-Paul benchmark. In five season in the NBA, Okafor has averaged 14.0 points on .505/.596 percent shooting, 10.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.8 turnovers. For what it’s worth, his career assist-to-turnover ratio is 0.499. Ouch.
His career numbers mask a trend with his field goal percentage, which is a trend towards a higher field goal percentage as his time in the league has progressed. Last season, Okafor’s field goal percentage was .561. Also, it should be noted that Okafor played in all 82 games in both of the last two seasons after avergaging 55 games per season in his first three years in the League.
So playing next to Paul, you’d expect Okafor to get better looks around the rim. No disrespect to Raymond Felton, but Paul is in another universe when it comes to getting his teammates higher percentage attempts. With that in mind, Okafor should progress close to the 60 percent mark for field goal percentage while boosting his scoring averages to career highs.
Being taken in the early sixth round so far this season based upon speculation of a fantasy production boost, Okafor could end up providing valuable dividends on the right teams. On any head-to-head teams that is punting free throw percentage, Emeka should provide very nice production and could easily outproduce his draft position. Or, for teams that can take on a poor free throw shooter, Okafor could be an excellent second center to anchor field goal percentage, rebounds and blocks.
Spencer Hawes — Flashy is probably not a word that will ever be used to describe Hawes’ fantasy or real-life game. Not gonna happen. Steady, maybe one day. Functional, hey why not?
His per-36 minutes from last season were 14.0 points on .466/.662 percent shooting, 0.6 threes, 8.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.5 blocks and 2.5 turnovers. Again, nothing flashy but very solid and respectable from a second or third center. What is really nice is to see that Hawes is increasing his three pointers per game.
With that in mind, check out this comparison of second year averages. A Mehmet Okur comparison should be a good thing for any young, big man in the Association. Okur was a much better shooter from the charity stripe, but their overall lines are relatively similar. Not a bad possible career trajectory for Mr. Hawes.
Another thing to consider in this situation is the team makeup and outlook for next season. There isn’t any point in sugar-coating it; the Kings were dreadful last season and will almost certainly be dreadful next season as well. But the good news is that Hawes has little competition for minutes at the center position and should put up steady contributions across the board.
Joakim Noah — Last season’s playoffs can be thought of as a watershed for a few players and teams in the League. The Dwight Howard-led Orlando Magic and the Chicago Bulls are some example of teams that made huge steps during the postseason.
How about Joakim Noah? Noah is an interesting case study because his watershed moment can be pinpointed to a specific play.
With that, Noah put everyone, pundits and players alike, on notice.
Noah’s second year averages were decent, but his post-All-Star Game splits showed vast improvement based largely upon bigger minutes. With his outstanding play in the postseason for the Bulls, expect a bigger role next season as a reward.
Next season, Noah could be in store for a similar line to his per-36 minute averages from last season. He averaged 10.0 points on .556/.676 percent shooting, 11.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 2.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers. A double-double average with two blocks and a steal is very nice from such a young player. For leagues that count offensive rebounds, Noah is even more valuable (averaged a whopping 4.5 offensive boards per-36 minutes last season). Bonus!
Noah is a nice third center option and provides the lunch-pail stats that all fantasy teams rely on. With an average draft position of 105th, Joakim can be obtained late in the draft and is a nice bet to outproduce his draft position.
Roy Hibbert — Looking for a big man to burn a late round flier on? Look no further than Georgetown standout (average draft position of 144th overall), Roy Hibbert. Hibbert plays in one of the league’s most fantasy friendly systems (third in pace) under Coach Jim O’Brien.
Playing for a Pacers team that lost Rasho Nesterovic to Toronto, there is suddenly an opportunity for increased minutes next season. Nesterovic’s departure freed up 17.3 minutes per game at the center position. If you assume that most of those minutes will be funneled to Hibbert (14.4 minutes per game last season), suddenly Roy is looking at nearly 30 minutes per night. With minutes comes fantasy production.
What can we expect from Hibbert in 30 minutes of action per night?
Looking at his per-36 minute stats from his rookie season, the promise is easy to see. He averaged 17.6 points on .471/.667 percent shooting, 8.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals, 2.7 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. That’s over 17 points per game, almost nine rebounds and almost three blocks per game. That is big time fantasy potential right there.
If you factor in the possibility of a Troy Murphy injury, and Hibbert starts to look like a very nice sleeper next season. Speaking of a possible Murphy injury, Roy Hibbert and Troy Murphy make a great pair of players to handcuff next season in the right formats.
With some of the early (and obvious) sleepers exposed, next are the deep sleepers for extremely competitive leagues or deeper formats.
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