Basketball Free For All

Every year there are players who will begin the season at a torrid pace. They rebound, steal, block and shoot their way to the top of the fantasy rankings right out of the gate. Conversely, on the less exciting side, there are also players you drafted early hoping they will have a stellar season for your team only to find out that they are anything but the great player you had hoped for.

This dichotomy can be so maddening for some owners that it will cause them to make rash decisions that savvy managers can exploit for their own selfish purposes (winning). Everyone likes a good deal and the fantasy community is no different. If you can find a manager who is tired of watching one of their star players under-perform, offer him a trade for a player(s) of less clout. The idea is to trade for a top-notch type player while he is at his statistical worst, buy low. Or trade away your over-achiever for a slumping stud, sell high.

The Buy Low

Before any trades are proposed, you need to consider a few things about the player(s) you are giving up as well as the player(s) you are receiving. When buying low, consider that you are essentially hunting in the bargain-bin at your local thrift store. The items (players) may have been nice at one time but now are used and a little worn out.

A few things to consider. Is the player coming off a down season that was an anomaly when compared to the rest of his career? Think Josh Smith last year, a year where he had career-lows in basically every statistical category (points, blocks, assists, rebounds) versus his play this year. Hopefully that year was just that, an anomaly, and the player will hopefully bounce back to his previous success of seasons past. Also, consider any injury history. Any player coming off of a major injury or surgery is surely going to have his value discounted at draft time. Finally, the true buy low player, a guy who just flat-out is not playing well at all but has a strong past track record to use as a reference point.

Here are a few buy low candidates to consider early on in the season.

The Injured Player. Kevin Martin and Chris Paul are two fantastic fantasy players that are viable buy low candidates at this point in the season and illustrate the injury aspect well.  No one wants to have an injured player on their roster. Its no fun watching one of your premier players accumulate zeros across the board night after night. After a few days or weeks of having to sit through an injury it can be beneficial to approach a slumping manager with a trade proposal for an injured star.

The other K-Mart has a hairline fracture in his left wrist that required surgery on November 9th. He is due out anywhere from 6-8 weeks but could be out longer as he doesn’t have the best track record for staying healthy. Owners needing a lift in threes, points, and free throw percentage may want to make a play for him. With a guy like Martin, it may make sense to wait a while to let the owner’s frustration grow to the breaking point.

Chris Paul is also out of action due to an ankle sprain and the initial prognoses is that he will be out for approximately one month. Making a trade proposal for CP3 requires a little bit more effort and tact. It is no easy process to get an owner to give up his number one pick, let alone the first or second overall pick in the draft. Paul is most likely only out a few weeks not an extended period so one would have to give up a quality player(s) that are not only healthy but are also producing top tier value. The key here is to not go too overboard in who you are willing to give up. Sure Paul can easily win a number of categories and possibly it all for your team but he isn’t worth it if you have to strip your roster to the bear bones just to acquire him. If Paul’s owner is losing bad it could benefit you to make a play for him ASAP while he is still out for a few weeks and the owner is still antsy to get a productive body in his lineup.

This type of buy low is especially effective when tried on managers at the bottom of the standings. They are more likely to be willing to deal an injured stud for lesser value in order to keep from falling too far behind and out of the playoff hunt.

The Player Returning from Injury. Pretty self explanatory here. Target a player who is just getting ready or has just returned from injury. Anytime a player has an injury that forces them to miss extended amounts of time, he usually comes back rusty and has a few bad games early on. Currently, there are multiple players that fit this bill including Kevin Love, Eric Gordon and Pau Gasol. Gordon and Love are still injured but are due back sooner rather than later and Gasol should be back to return Thursday night against the Bulls.

All three players are productive and can help virtually any team. When they do finally suit up, be sure to monitor their first couple of games. If they start out slow, send a trade proposal to open up tentative trade talks (nothing insulting). Most likely they will regain their form in a few games and will be right back to where they were before their injury. Just don’t wait too long because once they do fully recover, their value will drastically increase and your opportunity to buy low will be closed forcing you to pay full market value to obtain him.

Note: Be more cautious with major structural injuries that require months of rehabilitation as effects can often linger. Think Elton Brand trying to come back from his Achilles injury over the past couple of seasons.

The Slumping Player. Simple, go after any player who is performing below their career averages or your expected averages for this season. The idea here is the law of averages. If a player has performed at a certain (high) level for many years and is currently under-performing, he most likely will pick his game up at some point and eventually will end up performing at or near his career averages. A few players to consider under this model are Brand, Jose Calderon, Thaddeus Young and John Salmons.

All are in major slumps compared to their historical production and could be had on the cheap (well Brand’s window may be closed after his vintage performance against the Bobcats last night: 19 points on .471/.750 percent shooting, 0.0 threes, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 6 blocks and 1 turnover). One major caveat here is to be careful for a player currently slumping that also just signed a major extension, think Luol Deng in 2008-09, minus the stress fracture. Sometimes players just don’t have that fire in them after the big pay day and it can affect their entire season. For an excellent more in-depth article on Salmons,  check out the latest Great Debate piece.

Other buy lows to consider: Caron Butler, Al Jefferson.

The Sell High

If one of your players is playing such great basketball that it seems unlikely that he will continue to keep pace, then selling high is your best option to get positive returns on your player investment.

The Injury Fill-In. Anytime a starter goes down he opens up a spot for a bench player to shine. They can often be great pick-ups for the short term but will quickly lose their value once the starter returns. One player to unload immediately, like as in yesterday, is Andray Blatche. With a Basketball Monster rank of 65th overall in per game value and a Ziguana rank of 53rd overall in per game value, Blatche’s value is as high as it ever will be. Antawn Jamison is back from a shoulder injury and the party is officially over for Andray. In Jamison’s first game back, Blatche had 6 points and zero rebounds in just over 17 minutes.

Rookies. Rookies have become more intriguing over the past couple of years and are capable of making an immediate fantasy impact. Guys like O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose had managers salivating last season. This year, Tyreke Evans, Blake Griffin (even though he hasn’t even played a game yet) and Brandon Jennings have all been hot commodities. Jennings in particular appears to have been the steal of the draft (in both real life and in fantasy) with an average draft position of 126th overall in Yahoo! leagues. His 55 point outburst against Golden State last week got everyone’s attention and if you are skeptical of his ability to continue at such a high rate, now is the time to start shopping him. His current Ziguana rank is 15th overall. I’m not saying he won’t be great the rest of the year because he easily can be, but consider that it is early in a long season.

Rookies are not used to the physical demands of the NBA and its grueling 82 game schedule. The fabled “rookie wall” is very important to consider. Usually sometime mid-season around the 45-50 game mark, rookies start to slow down and their production drops. It is part of the game, learning how to keep your body healthy for the length of the season and rookies sometimes forget that the season is a marathon not a sprint. Watch out for the rookie wall and consider selling high before it happens to your rooks, especially if you can get a proven stud in return.

The Injury-Prone Player. The classic sell high candidate is the injury-prone player. A guy who always seems to miss time each season but is a strong player when healthy. To look at it from another perspective, they have high per game values but low cumulative values. There are  many players that fall into this category and it can often be tough to cut ties with a player who is playing to his full potential. This season there have been a number of players you could label as injury-prone who are healthy and are rewarding their owners.

Two of the best example are Staples Center big men Chris Kaman and Andrew Bynum. Over the past two seasons combined, they have missed 77 and 79 games respectively. But this year they are both healthy so far and are producing a per game Ziguana rank of 49th and 12th overall, respectively. When they are healthy they can carry your team in blocks and rebounding while providing solid percentages and points. But with multiple, serious injuries in the past, their durability is definitely an issue to consider. Kaman seems to have found his rhythm and is playing very well. Ongoing nagging injuries and simply being old could keep Marcus Camby “day-to-day” for longer than expected making Kaman’s production sustainable for the foreseeable future. Even with Blake Griffin due back next month from injury, expect Kaman’s value to hold strong. Bynum is a little more of a wild card. Two major knee surgeries in the past are signs owners might be a little scared of. However his 20.3 points on .591/.717 percent shooting, 0.0 threes,  11.8 rebounds 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals, 1.8 blocks and 2.3 turnovers make Bynum a major sell high candidate, just be sure you get quality value in return for the young center. Also, just remember that Bynum has posted these numbers with Pau on the floor this season, which is another reason to consider selling high on Andrew.

Other sell highs to consider: Marc Gasol, Channing Frye.

Of all of this season’s early story lines, the big constants have been Golden State’s descent into the abyss and Chicago swingman John Salmons‘ poor shooting. Fantasy managers that drafted him expected efficient scoring and across the board production. Instead, owners have been rewarded with a roto-crippling field goal percent of .317 through the Bulls’ first nine games. If Salmons were to keep shooting at this clip for the entire season, it would easily qualify as a career worst for him.

With owners stuck with less than what they bargained for from their middle-round pick (average draft position of 73.7 in Yahoo! leagues), each manager must evaluate their situation and decide what course of action should be taken. For owners lucky enough not to have drafted John, they are left wondering whether he is a nice buy low target or whether he should be treated like he has the H1N1.

Throughout his career, nothing has ever been given to Salmons and he has hung around the league until injuries opened up increased PT. And with an increased role, he truly broke out and took the fantasy world by storm becoming a fast favorite for those lucky enough to snag him off the waiver wire. In casual NBA circles, Salmons’ rise to prominence, like many of his young teammates, was the epic Celtics-Bulls first round playoff series of 2008-09 that will go down as one of the greatest of all time.

With a basketball resume spanning eight seasons in the NBA, Salmons’ production is a relatively known quantity (or at least we thought it was), previously providing sneaky-good roto contributions that was good for 50th overall in per game value according to Basketball Monster and 53rd in per game value according to Ziguana. His cumulative value was also top notch at 34th according to BBM and 33rd according to Ziguana. Last season, his per-36 minute averages were 17.6 points on .472/.830 percent shooting, 1.5 threes (on .417 percent shooting), 4.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.0 turnovers. When managers spent a eighth round pick on average on Salmons, those were the numbers they expecting in return.

But what went wrong? And more importantly, will he turn it around in time to salvage the season?

For Salmons, the situation is complex and there are various competing theories for what could be causing his shooting woes. In his case, there probably isn’t one right answer but instead a combination of contributing factors and competing theories that provide insight as to why Salmons has been shooting so poorly this season.

Let’s dive right in, analyze and discuss how each of them affect John’s outlook for the remainder of the season.

Theory One: Baby Watch

Salmons definitely had an interesting offseason dealing with a sore groin that dates back to the aforementioned epic Celtics playoff series. In addition, Salmons also dealt with the birth of his daughter. If you are wondering whether the birth of Salmons’ child could really be a contributing factor to his poor shooting, take a look at an NBC Sports player update blurb posted during the offseason.

John Salmons missed Friday’s game due to the birth of his child. He will rejoin the team on Sunday. This birth has been lingering for weeks and he can now focus on the Bulls now that it’s over. Congratulations, John. Now let’s play ball.

Source: NBA Sports

Lacking focus during the offseason can have negative effects at the beginning of the season as a player will have to play catch-up or struggle with things that he should have worked on when games didn’t matter. If this were the case, you would expect to see his shooting percentages down across the board, which is exactly the case with Salmons.

Those of you not buying the argument that the birth of a child could be that much of a distraction obviously don’t have any children or don’t know anyone with kids. Don’t worry; you’ll see for yourself one day. Managers that buy into this theory should hang on to Salmons if they own him or try to buy low, as he is bound to turn it around eventually once he regains his focus and conditioning.

Theory Two: Law of Averages

Another theory with a more optimistic outlook for John’s fantasy relevance centers around the law of averages, or more formally regression to the mean. In it’s most simplest form, regression to the mean can be boiled down to the idea that statistics like shooting percentages tend to gravitate towards their averages. In this case, Salmons has just had an extremely negative string of performances early on and each subsequent performance will tend to gravitate toward his career averages.

In this case, offseason distractions, roster changes and individual matchups so far this season don’t really matter. What matters are the numbers and Salmons’ established track record in eight seasons in the NBA. With a large enough sample size we can be confident that Salmons is a .444 percent field goal shooter, a .357 percent three point shooter and a .798 percent free throw shooter and not the .317/.267/.742 percent shooter we’ve seen so far this season.

Again, this time for dramatic purposes, the only really important things to examine with the theory of the law of averages is John’s current production versus his established averages. His numbers will return to normalcy at some point this season, salvaging John’s fantasy value and making him a roto-stud, as expected. For those that believe this, Salmons is a serious buy low that could pay huge dividends down the line.

Theory Three: Three Point Shooting

It’s no secret; the Bulls need help with their three point shooting this season. Desperately. For a little perspective, they rank 29th in three point attempts, 30th in threes made and 30th in three point shooting percentage. Officially, the Bulls are hands down the worst three point shooting team in the league this season. Compared to last year, the Bulls are significantly worse from behind the arc (23rd/22nd/6th, respectively, in 2008-09).

Which begs the question, what’s the main difference between last year’s three point shooting and this season’s?

Ben Gordon’s departure is the single biggest reason for the drop-off as a team. However, John Salmons’ and the other Bulls guards’ regression is another (John’s three point shooting percentage dropped from .415 in 2008-09 with Chicago to .267 this season while his attempts increased from 4.5 per game to 5.0 attempts). Chicago’s two other main rotation guards, sophomore point guard Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich, have not been getting it done from downtown either. Rose just doesn’t have three point range yet, as his .213 career and .000 current season three point shooting percentages attest. Hinrich, like Salmons, has been slumping so far this season shooting a career worst .267 from deep.

Gordon’s proficiency from downtown and propensity to launch bombs has been missed in Chicago thus far. However, none of Chicago’s guards have increased their attempts per game except for Salmons. Sometimes when players increase their shot attempts they not only take more shots but they also take more bad shots. It’s the opposite of the commonly quoted phrase letting the game come to you. When you ignore the common adage, overall efficiency suffers, which could be what is going on with John right now.

If you are persuaded by this theory, the Bulls as a team (ahem Coach Vinny Del Negro) will either need to find a solution to replace Gordon’s three point shooting or Salmons will need to reduce the number of threes he takes per game. Either one would help alleviate some of the pressure on Salmons’ shooting efficiency and make his fantasy line more palatable. Or so the Theory Three goes. According to this Theory, Salmons would be a buy low until Coach Del Negro or Salmons himself makes the necessary adjustments.

Theory Four: Different Shots

The fourth theory of interest is that Salmons is getting different looks than he was getting last year, with a negative result. The solution would be a coaching change that allowed John to get the looks he was seeing last season and the expected result would be a return to his efficient scoring ways. But does the evidence support this claim?

Examining shot data from 2008-09 and from this season, you can see a subtle shift in the pattern of shots Salmons is taking. His is relying on his jump shot more and is relying on his teammates to set him up more. At the same time, he is taking less attempts close to the basket and inside. These changes could all be expected to contribute to a lower field goal percentage. Looking at the shot data in a different way, what is the reason for the change in Salmons’ shot selection?

At 30 years of age, the changes evidenced in Salmons’ shot data could be the result of losing just a bit of his athleticism. Losing a step forces him to rely more heavily on his jumper, which was never John’s strongest part of his game, instead of slashing and getting higher percentage looks closer to the rim. Call this Theory 4.1. Or, the changes in Salmons’ shot selection could be a result of the emergence of Joakim Noah as a legitimate force in the paint, forcing Salmons farther away from the hoop into lower percentage looks. Call that Theory 4.2. The final variation is that John’s different looks could be solely Coach Del Negro’s fault, as he is ultimately the one who coordinates the Bulls offense and orchestrates the Bulls’ attack. For those keeping track that would be Theory 4.3.

If you buy 4.1, John’s atrophy is only going to accelerate so wait for Salmons’ next big game and see what you can get for him. Cut your losses, as they say. However, if you happen to be believers of Theory 4.2 or 4.3, coaching changes could allow Salmons to become an efficient scoring machine once again. The question then becomes, how much faith do you have in second year head coach, Vinny Del Negro, to make the necessary adjustments?

Theory Five: Higher Usage

The last, and probably most commonly cited theory, is the idea that Salmons is now forced to shoulder a heavier burden on offense with Gordon in Mo-Town and his efficiency has suffered as a result. With Gordon gone, Salmons has to take more shots on offense (increased usage) while simultaneously receiving greater defensive attention and pressure. Unfortunately for us, there are no freely-available statistics that track double teams or defensive pressure. Teams probably track statistics that could shed some light on this issue but they are not available to the public at this point. Not yet at least.

However, there are metrics that track usage percentage, which is simply an estimate of the number of team plays a player uses while he is on the floor. Contrary to the common wisdom, Salmons is actually shouldering a lighter load this season with a usage percentage of 19.8 percent down slightly from 20.2 last season. In this case, the numbers just don’t back up the theory that a higher usage is responsible for John’s decreased efficiency. And with no means of objectively testing the amount of defensive pressure Salmons is receiving this season, Theory Five is looking to be more or less debunked.

Conclusion

Of all the theories that attempt to explain Salmons’ poor efficiency, none clearly stand out as the definitive explanation for John’s shooting woes. More realistically, Salmons is suffering from the perfect storm of offseason distractions, team dynamics, roster changes, coaching issues, tough scheduling early on, confidence problems or a myriad of other possible contributing factors.

Of all the possible explanations, the higer usage theory is the one with the least amount of supporting evidence. Similar to the Elton Brand situation in Philadelphia, we as fantasy managers cannot know what is actually causing Salmons’ poor efficiency this season. As a result, the burden lies on each of us to examine each argument individually and weigh it against the facts. Based upon how you are swayed and by which argument, it totally changes whether you should cut your losses or try and buy low.