Before we get to the good stuff, I just wanted to mention that we’ve experienced some trouble on the website as hackers thought we were an enviable target. We have to assume they were unhappy with Plonden’s advice, but regardless, we lost Deebo’s post/comments and I’ve had to redo this week’s preview (that’s why it was late). Regardless, lesson to be learned – BACK UP everything you do somewhere!
With the upcoming NBA season still a few months away, it’s time to take an early look at the fantasy prospects for a team that threatens to be very relevant: the Washington Wizards. Last season was a forgettable one for the Wizards (to say the least).
Washington finished the season with an embarrassing 19-63 record, making them the second worst team in the league behind Sacramento’s lowly mark of 17-65. They began last season with a record of 1 and 10, which prompted the firing of then head coach Eddie Jordan. The team never managed to recover from the rough start, finishing out the year with a string of insipid performances.
Sure, they had a rough go of it last year, injuries caused their best player, Gilbert Arenas, to miss all but two games (he did average 13 and 10 though, technically speaking). Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood both missed a significant amount of games as well. Outside of DC, it is rarely mentioned what an impact Haywood has for the Wizards, both on and off the court.
That being said, it is a new season for the Wizards and their outlook is significantly better for 2009-10.
The Wizards were one of the most active teams this off-season. They began their roster tune-up with a pre-draft trade with Minnesota, sending Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, Oleksiy Pecherov and the 5th overall selection in the 2009 draft, in exchange for guard/forward Mike Miller and guard Randy Foye. This was a big time move by the Wizards aimed at vaulting them back to contender status in the East.
The Bullets Wizards have entered the arms race in the Eastern Conference.
They traded spare parts (and a rotation player in Songaila) and their lottery pick, which turned out to be Ricky Rubio, to bring in a few veterans to help right away. The move should definitely improve their win total significantly next season while helping take some of the offensive load off the oft-injured and aging core of: Arenas, Butler and Antawn Jamison.
With a new-and-improved squad heading into next season, the Wizards should provide a variety of quality fantasy options for managers to tap. The key is to correctly identify which Wiz will be in the rotation, as Coach Saunders has made it known that his rotation only consists of eight players.
Take a look at the Wizards roster:
PG: Gilbert Arenas, Javaris Crittenton, Mike James
SG: Randy Foye, Nick Young, DeShawn Stevenson
SF: Caron Butler, Mike Miller, Dominic McGuire
PF: Antawn Jamison, Andray Blatche
C: Brendan Haywood, JaVale McGee, Francisco Oberto
The 2009-10 team is very guard heavy. Six of their fourteen players currently under contract are pure guards. Arenas is the starting point guard and is a lock to receive steady minutes, at least 35 per game, as long as he is healthy. He is obviously a great fantasy player when not being hindered by his surgically repaired knee (first round ceiling if healthy). Expect Gilbert to have a bounce back year this coming season after basically missing out on the previous two seasons due to injury.
This guy is a competitor and he wants to win, especially when LeBron James‘ Cavs are in town. Plus, he’s been working out with Tim Grover, who has helped guys like Dwayne Wade recover from injury. Hopefully he will be the guy who could drain threes from anywhere on the court and blow by a defender with ease.
If he is completely healthy I would expect Arenas to provide healthy numbers for his owners somewhere along the lines of 20.5 points per game on 43/80 percent shooting, 2.0 threes, 5.7 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 0.2 blocks and 3.0 turnovers.
The rest of the Wizard’s guards won’t hold as much value as Arenas, but some will still be fantasy relevant. Mike Miller (who can also play forward) should improve on the rather forgettable season last year. With plenty of other offensive options for defenses to worry about, Miller should get a good number of decent looks from the perimeter where he is not afraid to fire away.
Expect his three point percentage to rise from last year’s 37 percent mark back up to somewhere near his career average of 40 forty. Miller could average close to 12.0 points per game on 45/75 percent shooting, 2.0 threes, 5.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists with under a couple of turnovers.
Randy Foye should either start at shooting guard or be the first guard off the bench to backup Arenas. Foye had the best year of his career last year while playing big minutes for the woeful Timberwolves. Expect his production to be reduced this year as he will see fewer minutes in his reserve role. Although good in real life, depth is a fantasy killer as it means stiffer competition for the limited supply of minutes.
His ability to find playing time really rests upon the health of Arenas’ knee. If he is only getting around 20-25 minutes per night he may be worth a very late round selection in leagues of 12 teams or more. I expect Foye to have a much bigger impact on the Wizard’s win/loss column than he will in the fantasy world.
The other Wizard guards are most likely fantasy casualties of the recent trade and Arenas’ new-found health. Mike James and DeShawn Stevenson will see drastic minute reductions as well and should hold no fantasy value next season. Nick Young could see a major reduction from his 22.4 minutes he averaged last season, as his role was instant offfense off the bench. He may not make it into Saunders’ eight man group next season. Beware.
Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison will continue to hold a lot of fantasy value next season. Jamison is pretty much a lock for 20/8 with a steal and close to two assists for good measure all on 45 percent shooting from the field and 35 percentfrom beyond the arc. He is getting older (he turned 33 this year) and one has to wonder when the drop-off in production will occur. However, the thing to remember is that Jamison is an old school gamer and competes night in and night out.
Butler’s fantasy relevance relies heavily on his health. He’s had an outstanding couple of fantasy seasons for the past few years now and should continue to do so as long as he can stay on the court. Caron missed fifteen games last year, 24 games in 2007-08 and 19 games in 2006-07. That is not exactly the “Cal Ripken Jr model of health” that the Wizards would hope for from one of the cornerstones of their franchise.
Butler has had the biggest work load placed on his shoulders the past two seasons as he attempted to carry the team’s offense in the wake of Arenas’ injuries. The heavy minutes combined with his penchant for taking contact really wore Butler down over the course of the season. The biggest knock on him the past few years was his absence during the final stretch of the fantasy season, when head-to-head owners needed him most.
If he stays healthy this year he will reward his fantasy owners handsomely, somewhere along the lines of 20.0 points per game on 46/85 percent shooting, 6.0 rebounds, 3.o assists, 1.8 steals, 0.3 blocks and 2.7 turnover. He’ll also chip in a three pointer per game.
With all of the talent they now have in the Capitol, the Wizards will offer many servicable fantasy options, while undoubtedly improving on last season’s awful disappointing record.
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